Freight Transport Demand Research Articles

An Overview of Indicators and Indices Used for Urban Mobility Assessment

The urban mobility is affected by global trends resulting in a growing passenger and freight transport demand. In order to improve the understanding of urban mobility in general, to evaluate mobility services and to quantify the overall transport system performance, it is necessary to assess urban mobility. Urban mobility assessment requires the application of methodology integrating different metrics and explicitly applying a multi-dimensional approach. Since scientific community does not define urban mobility in an unambiguous way, part of this paper is devoted to the analysis of the definition of urban mobility. This step enables better understanding of urban mobility in general, as well as understanding of the urban mobility assessment process. Usually, a three-layered approach that includes urban mobility data, indicators and indices is used for the assessment. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to perform extensive research in order to synthesize, define and organize the elements of those layers. The existing urban mobility indicators and indices have been developed for specific urban areas, taking into account local specifications, and they are not applicable in other cities. Also, the choice of urban mobility indicators is mainly related to the existence of data sources, which limits the objective and comparable assessment of the mobility of cities where such data do not exist.

Prospects of Forming a New Rail Freight Tariff System

The rail freight market is one of the most important sectors of the Russian economy. From year to year there has been evidence of inefficiency of rail freight regulation rules: shippers prefer to use alternative types of transport for goods with high added value, decreasing revenues of OAO “RZD” (Russian Railways) and limiting its investment program. To create conditions for development, there have been discussions about directions of reforms needed in the rail freight sector. Market players like OAO “RZD”, the government, and shippers have been putting forward their own optimal market schemes, but mainly they are controversial. In this paper, the authors propose a vector for further development of an optimal rail freight market model, which would take into account interests of all market players. At the first stage, we evaluated elasticities of demand for rail freight transportation for different types of goods. At the second stage, we measured levels of rail freight tariffs in Russia and compared them with the theoretical optimal level according to the Ramsey rule. With maximum public welfare taken as the optimal criteria, directions for further development of tariff s for the medium to long term have been identified. According to our estimates, the present tariff system leads to 0.2% of GDP welfare being lost annually. The new tariff system would ensure a 4–6% increase in freight volumes by decreasing the average level of tariffs. This tariff system can be applied as part of rail freight regulation improvements.

Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans: How Do They Work?

The growing demand for passenger and freight transport in cities, resulting from the population growth in urbanized areas, has led to increasing problems with congestion, environmental pollution and, as a consequence, to a decrease in quality of life. This problem was noticed by the European Commission, which began to promote the concept of sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs). The efficient implementation of SUMPs requires tools for its evaluation. However, in the literature, most proposed assessment tools relate mainly to passenger transport, omitting the freight transport. The purpose of this paper is to utilize a multiple criteria analysis with the use of the Promethee method in order to assess the level of advancement of selected European Union (EU) capital cities in the field of sustainable urban mobility plan formulation and implementation. This method has been applied on the basis of a survey conducted among representatives of 15 EU capital cities and analyses of transportation plans. This research shows that cities that have a comprehensive transport plan consistently collaborate with different stakeholder groups, have implemented the greatest number of measures in the field of sustainable urban transport, and have achieved the best results in terms of safety and NO2 (nitrogen oxides) and PM (particulate matter) emissions.

Design and Operation of Autonomous Underground Freight Transportation Systems

AbstractDespite the increases in freight transportation demand, options for increasing capacity of the overground freight transportation infrastructure system are limited. This paper investigated t...

Freight transport development forecasts in enterprises management

In this study, an investigation of long-term forecasts relating to the development of the transport sector in Poland is performed, including the ones by 2030 and 2050. Selected transport development forecasts from the perspective of the membership of Poland in the European Union are presented and most of all, from the perspective of national studies. The basement for the review was the prognosis of European Commission, Central Statistical Office, International Monetary Fund, Department of Economic, Sectoral and Agricultural Market of BGZ BNP PARIBAS S.A., Motor Transport Institute, Wise Europa Institute of Warsaw Transport Institute, as well as prognosis of the scientific experts. Despite temporary economic downturns, the demand for freight transport is steadily growing and, as shown by the forecasts, it will grow in the future. In 2018 the situation on the freight transport market was expected to remain stable, mainly due to the continuous high demand for international carriages.

Performance evaluation framework for sustainable freight transportation systems

Sustainability in freight transportation demands for a balance among economic, environmental, and social aspects in shipping commodities throughout a supply chain. The performance evaluation of sustainable freight transportation (SFT) systems is of prime importance as it facilitates perpetual and objective assessment for advancements towards sustainability targets. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to assess the sustainability performance of freight transportation systems. We pinpoint critical success factors (CSFs) affecting the performance of SFT by carrying out an extensive literature review and conducting a Delphi study to seek experts’ opinions from industry as well as academia. Further, a comprehensive hierarchical framework is developed to establish inter-relationships among these CSFs followed by prioritisation of these CSFs. The application of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case example. This framework would also serve as a reference for decision-makers in selecting the most sustainable freight transportation system.

Estimation of heavy vehicle-involved rear-end crash potential using WIM data

Rear-end crash risk has been modeled and calibrated from various sources of data. The results can be used to develop traffic control strategies for avoiding collision. As the demand for freight transportation has increased in recent years, traffic agencies are more interested in monitoring heavy vehicle-involved crash risk because of the severity of accidents and high secondary crash risks. This study processes per-vehicle data from a WIM (weight-in-motion) sensor to investigate the heavy vehicle-involved crash risk potential (CRP) on freeways. To estimate rear-end CRP, one of the previously developed models is modified to use WIM data. In addition, this study proposes a technique for estimating the crash risk level, which is determined by comparing the estimated crash risk probability with the maximum expected risk probability at a given level of service (LOS). A time-series investigation reveals that there is clear difference in the CRP and crash risk level between lanes and there are two major time windows with high heavy vehicle-involved crash risk levels. After repeating the exercise for all available data, this study confirms that these observations are systematic and reproducible. Not only can the results in this study provide a local guidance for traffic agencies to prepare for heavy vehicle crash prevention strategies, but reiterating the investigation over multiple locations also allows them to monitor heavy vehicle crash risk levels at the network level.

Propulsion system design and energy optimization for autonomous underground freight transportation systems

The demand for freight transportation is on the rise as a result of population growth, increase in the need for energy, and the expansion of global trade. Existing infrastructure for freight transportation seems inadequate for future growth, and new facilities are required to cover the deficiencies in cargo movement. Underground Freight Transportation (UFT) is a new mode of transportation that uses the space below the ground to carry cargo within autonomous vehicles in tunnels and pipelines. Different propulsion systems have been used for freight pipeline systems. The goal of this research is to find the proper propulsion system for the UFT system. In addition, this research aims at finding the minimum power of the propulsion system and energy consumption for the UFT system operation. Two short-haul and long-haul UFT systems with different load sizes are used to test and apply the results of this research. The findings of this research suggest that because of its light weight and short thickness, a Linear Induction Motor (LIM) is an appropriate propulsion system for UFT. Besides, this research estimates that the energy consumption and power requirement of a LIM system is low. The energy consumption of LIM system is calculated as a function of UFT system operating speed. Therefore, the results of this research can be applied in the design, operation and cost estimating of other UFT systems.

Relative Capacity and Performance of Fixed- and Moving-Block Control Systems on North American Freight Railway Lines and Shared Passenger Corridors

North American railroads are facing increasing demand for safe, efficient, and reliable freight and passenger transportation. The high cost of constructing additional track infrastructure to increase capacity and improve reliability provides railroads with a strong financial motivation to increase the productivity of their existing mainlines by reducing the headway between trains. The objective of this research is to assess potential for advanced Positive Train Control (PTC) systems with virtual and moving blocks to improve the capacity and performance of Class 1 railroad mainline corridors. Rail Traffic Controller software is used to simulate and compare the delay performance and capacity of train operations on a representative rail corridor under fixed wayside block signals and moving blocks. The experiment also investigates possible interactions between the capacity benefits of moving blocks and traffic volume, traffic composition, and amount of second main track. Moving blocks can increase the capacity of single-track corridors by several trains per day, serving as an effective substitute to construction of additional second main track infrastructure in the short term. Moving blocks are shown to have the greatest capacity benefit when the corridor has more second main track and traffic volumes are high. Compared with three-aspect signal systems, much of the benefits of moving blocks can be obtained from adding signals and implementing a four-aspect signal system. Knowledge of train delay performance and line capacity under moving blocks will aid railway practitioners in determining if the benefits of these systems justify the required incremental investment over current PTC overlay implementations.

Assessment of collaboration in city logistics: From the aspects of profit and CO2 emissions

ABSTRACTWith the acceleration of urbanization, city logistics has developed so fast because of the growing demand for freight transportation. However, the negative effects caused by city logistics also stand out. Collaboration is an effective way to improve these situations, especially emphasizing on cost reduction of transportation and beneficial impact of the environment. In this paper, we study the actual influence of collaboration between two different carriers under no information shared and information shared situations respectively. Taking into account the transportation cost, the particular revenue of each lane and the CO2 emissions, this paper analyzes the collaboration performance under different mechanisms. Furthermore, a computational study is carried out. The specific results show that collaboration in city logistics can indeed improve the profit and achieve the carbon emissions abatement at the same time. However, the actual effects are different under different scenarios.

Freight transport models: Ready to support transport policy of the future?

The traditional model-based approach is no longer capable of grasping developments in freight transport within an ever more rapidly changing world. Most models that have been used in the past to explain and predict the demand for freight transport did not devote sufficient consideration to structural, organisational and behavioural changes. Several important global developments that are taking place could have a structural effect on freight transport, with a number of consequences for modelling. This paper addresses several global developments in greater depth, along with their impact on freight transport. This is followed by a discussion of the future of freight models. It is unclear which approach would be appropriate for freight transport under these conditions. This is a clear problem that is linked to a research agenda.

Cotas para el problema de asignación de vehículos

El problema de asignación dinámica de vehículos consiste en asignar una flota de vehículos para atender la demanda prevista por transporte de carga entre terminales, durante un horizonte de tiempo finito y con múltiples periodos, cuyo objetivo es maximizar el lucro generado por los servicios completados. Dada la dispersión geográfica por demanda de servicios de transporte de carga, es común que se acumulen vehículos vacíos en lugares donde no son necesarios o se genere una escasez de vehículos donde son necesitados a lo largo del horizonte de planeación, por tanto, es importante balancear el suministro de vehículos y la demanda por servicios a lo largo del horizonte de planeación. El tamaño de los problemas prácticos enfrentados por transportadores logísticos es considerablemente grande para resolver en tiempos computacionales razonables, especialmente en transporte de carga por carre-tera. Consecuentemente, se recurre a métodos heurísticos para obtener soluciones factibles, pese a que no se tiene certificado de calidad de la solución. Por esta razón, en este trabajo se propone estudiar dos métodos de decomposición, que proporcionan certificados de calidad, para obtener cotas para el PADV. Los métodos utilizados son relajación lagranjeana junto con método de subgradiente de optimización y decomposición de Dantzig-Wolfe junto con generación de columnas. Experimentos compu-tacionales son realizados con instancias realistas, y los resultados de las cotas se muestran promisorios en términos de eficiencia computacional para el segundo método.

Design and Operation of Autonomous Freight Transportation Systems

The demand for freight transportation is on the rise as a result of population growth, increase in the need for energy, and the expansion of global trade. Existing infrastructure for freight transportation seems inadequate for future growth, and new facilities are required to cover the deficiencies in cargo movement. Underground Freight Transportation (UFT) is a new mode of transportation that uses the space below the ground to carry cargo within individual vehicles in tubes and pipelines. Different propulsion systems have been used for freight pipeline systems. The goal of this research is to find the proper propulsion system for the UFT system. In addition, this research aims at finding the minimum power of the propulsion system and energy consumption for the UFT system operation. Two short-haul and long-haul UFT systems with different load sizes are used to test and apply the results of this research. The findings of this research suggest that because of its light weight and short thickness, a Linear Induction Motor (LIM) is the most appropriate propulsion system for UFT. Besides, this research estimates that the energy consumption and power requirement of a LIM system is low. The energy consumption of LIM system is calculated as a function of UFT system operating speed. Therefore, the results of this research can be applied in the design, operation and cost estimating of other UFT systems.

A Simulation-Based Dynamic Programming Method for Interchange Scheduling of Port Collecting and Distributing Network

As one of the effective methods to reduce congestion, grade intersection has already been changed to interchange in port collecting and distributing network (PCDN) of many Chinese ports, since the first interchange was built in the PCDN of Dalian port in 1924. Due to the growing demand for port freight transportation, congestion in PCDN is becoming one of the inevitable problems that need to be solved. This paper addresses the best interchange scheduling multistage decision problem in PCDN at a network level. The main challenges are how to estimate the delay time and cope with high uncertainties in port network and PCDN. Therefore, a simulation-based dynamic programming (DP) model is proposed with the purpose of minimizing total cost in lifetime period by combining a DP model and two nested simulation models together. Two simulation models are built to figure out the delay cost in the optimization model, which cannot be calculated by mathematical analysis due to complex vehicle travel patterns and irregular traffic volume caused by random events, such as the arrival pattern of ships’, natural conditions, and storage period of cargos. Finally, a real project in northern China is presented as a case study. The proposed method can be applied in similar cases and can help solve analogous complicated multistage problems.

The potential impact of Brexit on Ireland's demand for shipping services to continental Europe

Ireland, as an island nation, has historically relied on the UK landbridge to export and import its goods to and from Europe. This provides a fast, reliable and secure service along the UK landbridge route relative to the more economical and less frequent direct continental route. However, the relative competitiveness of maritime services along both routes may be significantly influenced by the UK exit from the European Union or Brexit. This paper aims to understand the potential impact of Brexit on maritime freight transport demand from Ireland to continental Europe for export trade shipments. Based on data collected from an efficient stated preference (SP) experiment, discrete choice models that allow for non-compensatory behaviour are estimated. Results from a range of likely variations in the level of service of the UK landbridge route following Brexit suggest that the probability of using the direct continental route is likely to increase by up to a 14% with respect to its current level.

A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa

Purpose: To develop and apply a methodology to calculate the heavy goods vehicle fleet required to meet South Africa’s projected road freight transport demand within the context of total surface freight transport demand.Methodology: Total freight flows are projected through the gravity modelling of a geographically disaggregated input–output model. Three modal shift scenarios, defined over a 15-year forecast period, combined with road efficiency improvements, inform the heavy goods vehicle fleet for different vehicle types to serve the estimated future road freight transport demand.Findings: The largest portion of South Africa’s high and growing transport demand will remain on long-distance road corridors. The impact can be moderated through the concurrent introduction of domestic intermodal solutions, performance-based standards in road freight transport and improved vehicle utilisation. This presupposes the prioritisation of collaborative initiatives between government, freight owners and logistics service providers.Research limitations: (1) The impact of short-distance urban movements on fleet numbers is not included yet. (2) Seasonality, which negatively influences bi-directional flows, is not taken into account owing to the annual nature of the macroeconomic data. (3) The methodology can be applied to other countries; the input data are however country-specific and findings can therefore not be generalised. (4) The future possibility of a reduction in absolute transport demand through, for example, reshoring have not been modelled yet.Practical implications: Provides impetus for the implementation of domestic intermodal solutions and road freight performance-based standards to mitigate the impact of growing freight transport demand.Societal implications: More efficient freight transport solutions will reduce national logistics costs and freight-related externalities.Originality: Develops a methodology for forecasting the heavy goods vehicle fleet within the context of total freight transport to inform government policy and industry actions.

A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050

This paper focuses on comparing the framework and projections of energy consumption and emissions from India's transportation sector up to 2050. To understand the role of road transport in energy demand and emissions, five modeling teams developed baseline projections for India's transportation sector as part of inter-model comparison exercise under the Sustainable Growth Working Group (SGWG) of the US-India Energy Dialog. Based on modeling results, we explore the developments in India's passenger and freight road transport, including changes in the modal shift and the resulting changes in energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions. We find significant differences in the base-year data and parameters for future projections, namely energy consumption by transport in general and by mode, service demand for passenger and freight transport. Variation in modeling assumptions across modeling teams reflects the difference in opinion among the different modeling teams which in turn reflects the underlying uncertainty with respect to key assumptions. We have identified several important data gaps in our knowledge about the development of the transportation sector in India. The results of this inter-model study can be used by Indian policy makers to set quantified targets in emission reductions from the transportation sector.

Direction of changes in demand for rail freight transport within the European Union countries in the years 1990–2013

The article discusses the main trends of changes in the volume of rail freight transport in the European Union between 1990–2013 in the context of the entire EU freight market. Furthermore, rail freight transport was analysed breaking it down to the “old Fifteen” countries and the new member states of the European Union – EU 11. In the EU 15 group, the demand for rail freight transport differed from the corresponding demand in the EU 11 countries. The aim of this article is a preliminary verification of the hypothesis, according to which reforms of the railway sector undertaken by means of its demonopolization and general liberalization were to lead to a significant increase in the share of rail transport in the EU freight market. In the final part, the main factors shaping the demand for rail freight were indicated.

A method to estimate the demand for freight transport in absence of historical data. A case study of the Oder Waterway

The aim of the research described in this article is to work out a method to estimate the demand for freight transport in a situation when no historical data are available, thus rendering it impossible to apply methods based on time series data. The method presented in this article was developed and verified on the basis of an analysis of potential inland shipping operations on the Oder Waterway to/from the seaports in Szczecin and Świnoujście, assuming that the waterway has been upgraded to navigability class III. The analysis was predicated on a demand survey performed among cargo shippers. The obtained research results made it possible to specify the advantages and drawbacks of forecasting based on qualitative methods, and to identify the factors which significantly reduce the reliability of freight transport forecasts.

A sensitivity analysis of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands

Strategic freight transport models can be used for a quantitative analysis of long term forecasts. This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the long-term scenarios for The Netherlands developed recently by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). The scenarios describe two base cases: The High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam. The sensitivity analysis provides more insight in the level of importance of each scenario assumption and it can be useful in estimating a bandwidth for freight transport demand. This is valuable in providing insight in the robustness of the freight transport forecasts for policy studies.