Free Trade Agreement Partners Research Articles

A study on the changes of agricultural import structure according to implementation of FTAs in South Korea

PurposeSouth Korea has signed and implemented 15 free trade agreements (FTAs) with 52 countries. More than 80 percent of imports of agricultural products came from FTA partner countries in 2015. We can say that South Korea entered the era of an opening in agricultural import sector. It means that FTA is an important factor in causing changes in agricultural imports. As a result of the implementation of the FTA, tariff cuts and other changes in trade conditions could lead to an increase in imports of agricultural products from FTA partner country or diversity of partners. South Korea has implemented 15 FTAs so far, each with a different period of implementation, different scale of trade, and different major trade items. This means that each FTA will have a different size and type of impact on the changes in the import structure. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyze how the FTA actually affected agricultural imports and what type of impact each FTA had. Especially, the authors focused on the effects of trade creation and diversion to analyze the patterns of structural changes in the import of agricultural products according to the implementation of FTAs.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors analyzed both trade creation and trade diversion effect through the poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method based on the previous research gravity model of Magee (2008, p. 353) and Yang and Martinez-Zarzoso (2014, p. 144). The biggest improvement compared to the standard gravity model is that all variables such as GDP, population, and distance are removed. This model cannot be regarded as a gravity model because the basic parameters of gravity model such as GDP, population, distance are excluded, but it can be said that the fixed effect variables replace the basic parameter of the gravity model.FindingsAccording to the analysis, the authors found that the effects of trade creation were apparent in the early stages of FTA implementation before 2011 and the effect of the trade transition was seen in the mid-FTA transition period after 2011. The authors also clarified the pattern of structural changes in the agricultural imports of each FTAs. It is shown that the change in agricultural import structures was more apparent in major FTAs like the Korea-ASEAN, Korea-EU, and Korea-US FTA. In other words, the effects of trade creation and trade diversion in these FTAs were found to be statistically significant.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitations of this study are as follows. First, as multiple FTAs are implemented simultaneously, the effects of individual FTA can be offset. Second, the FTA effect of each item was not reflected, because it was analyzed based on the amount of imports by country. Third, the effect of the trade between the partners was not reflected. Therefore, future studies need to add or supplement these limitations.Practical implicationsThis paper demonstrated through an empirical analysis that the FTA directly affects changes in agricultural import structure. And it proved that the period of FTA implementation, items imported from FTA partner countries, and the size of imports affected the structure of agricultural imports. Of course, changes in the domestic consumption patterns, changes in the supply and demand, conditions of quarantine inspection, and preference of importers are also factors that affect the structure of agricultural imports. It is expected that the effect of trade creation and the effect of trade diversion in agricultural import will be more significant when tariff rates are further decreased due to FTA implementation and domestic demand of agricultural product rises as a result of an economic recovery. As the FTA directly affects changes in agricultural imports, it should be carefully dealt with when signing a new FTA or improving the existing ones. And appropriate measures should be taken to minimize damages to the domestic agricultural sector due to changes in the import structure of agricultural products.Originality/valueThis paper fulfils an identified need to do research what kinds of effect occurred after FTA implementation in the agricultural sector. An empirical analysis was conducted on the effects of trade creation and diversion of agricultural products, based on the actual results of bilateral trade between the 50 major importers of agricultural products, including the 30 FTA partner countries.

Implementation of EU Free Trade Agreements

The EU has a very active trade negotiating agenda, with new negotiations starting every year and being in preparation. Increasing number of free trade agreements (FTAs) are also being concluded. Against this background, and the fact that trade policy is attracting much more attention from the public that used to be the case still a few years back, effective implementation of EU trade agreements has become an important priority for the EU Trade policy. The EU needs to demonstrate that its trade agreements work in practice and deliver the negotiated benefits to EU operators. The EU FTAs currently in force are not identical in their scope and objectives, and this has to be taken into account also when looking into their implementation. EU FTAs can be divided in different groups on the basis of their scope and objectives. Since 2006 the Commission has been negotiating comprehensive FTAs which cover a wide range of areas including also inter alia services, investment, procurement, intellectual property rights, competition and trade and sustainable development. When speaking about FTAs, normally the main point of interest is to know whether the FTAs have led to an increase of trade flows between the partners in the areas of trade in goods, services and investment. In general it can be said that in large majority of cases, the trade in goods has increased during the period than the FTAs have been in force. In terms of services and investment, it is more difficult to see the link with the FTAs in developments in these areas. Preference utilization rates (PURs) of the EU FTAs have attracted a lot of attention since the Commission started producing them after the EU–Korea FTA started to be applied. In general, the PURs for EU operators are lower than those of our trading partners. New generation FTAs have a comprehensive structure of implementation bodies. A number of subcommittees and working groups covering different areas covered by the chapters of the FTA meet annually to address problematic issues. Sanitary and phytosanitary measures, restrictions in trade of agricultural products, enforcement of geographical indicators and public procurement have been areas most often discussed in these fora. Lack of awareness of the FTAs by EU companies and difficulties in understanding them is still a real issue preventing FTAs reaching their full potential. This has led the Commission to intensify its efforts to address better the awareness gap. In addition to the Commission, Member States and their business organizations have also a crucial role in disseminating information on FTAs to their stakeholders, in particular small and medium sized enterprise (SMEs), who often require information in a local language and locally in different regions. Close cooperation between Member States’ embassies and the EU delegations in the FTA partner countries has also been identified as a key factor to ensure effective implementation of the FTAs.

The Hydra revisited: expectations and perceptions of the impact of the EU-Korea free trade agreement

On 1 July 2011, a free trade agreement was provisionally implemented between the EU and South Korea. At the time, there were clear expectations within the EU business community in Seoul about the likely impact of the deal, including an increase in EU exports, the dismantling of tariff and existing non-tariff barriers (NTBs), the possible emergence of new NTBs, the further development of mechanisms for discussion and problem-solving mechanisms, and a shift in Koreans’ perceptions of all imported EU goods as luxury items. Interviews conducted with expatriate executives, diplomats and trade officials in Seoul in 2015 revealed the extent to which these expectations have been fulfilled and also highlighted the importance of broad economic and social trends in the strong performance of EU exports since 2011. These included the maturing of the Korean economy and the growing need for high-end industrial goods, and the Koreans’ increasing purchasing power and the concomitant desire to engage in displays of wealth. In addition to contributing to the general academic debate on the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs) and adding specific colour to the case of the EU-Korea FTA, this research will play an important role in shaping responses to the shifting economic, social and cultural trends that will impact the future outcomes of this key trade deal between the EU and Korea. It will also inform the EC’s discussions with current and future free trade agreement partners and its analysis of the various factors influencing the actual and perceived success or failure of those deals.

Augmented Footprint of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in India: An Empirical Analysis of Indian Chemical Industry

Chemical industry plays a vital role in the functioning of most of the key sectors of an economy which includes agriculture, infrastructure, healthcare, textiles among others. This paper attempts to analyse the dynamics of international trade in chemical sector both at the macro and micro level for the period 2012, 2013 and 2014. The study has also looked into export potentiality and competitiveness of Indian chemical products in international market with special emphasis to FTA markets. An attempt is also made to study in depth the trade structure of these products, how far erosion of protection is pronounced and the extent FTA partners are responsible for India’s rising imports. In case of implication of FTA, erosion of ‘effective rate of protection’ has been looked into. Further, several trade indices have been calculated both on import and export data to understand quality of exported and imported products, possibility of exploiting economies of scale, extensive and intensive margins, degree of concentration both at product and country level, revealed comparative advantage and possibility of intra-industry trade. The paper conducts an in-depth analysis on selected products to demystify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to Indian chemical industry in the world, especially putting the lens on various FTA groups.

Does the WTO government procurement agreement influence steel imports?

Purpose Government procurement policies containing domestic content requirements have faced increasing attention, as more traditional forms of trade discrimination have declined in recent decades. The most important effort to reduce discriminatory government procurement policies is the plurilateral Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA), in which a subset of WTO countries has agreed to provide increased access to imports from fellow signatory countries. This paper focuses on the Buy American policy, which mandates domestic content for all US Federal government purchase above the micro-purchase level. The author tests whether steel imports from GPA and US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners, both of which receive preferential access to US federal procurements, increase as the value of federal construction contracts rise. Design/methodology/approach The author tracks federal construction contracts and seeks to determine whether there is a link between these contracts and construction grade steel imports from GPA and US FTA members. The author uses two-stage least squares to regress the import quantity of steel from GPA and US FTA countries on the value of US federal construction contracts. Imported and domestic steel prices as well as macroeconomic variables such as industrial production and non-residential construction are controlled for. A panel data set is used that includes three different construction-grade steel products and covers years 2004-2013. Findings The results indicate that increased federal construction contracts increase imports of construction-grade steel from GPA and FTA partners. This effect is relatively small, however, which may be due to the fact that federal construction is a small share of overall US construction. In general, the results suggest that the primary determinant of US import sourcing behavior is the business cycle as well as the price of steel. Nevertheless, the findings indicate that the preferences provided by the GPA and FTAs do have some impact on where US construction firms source their steel. Originality/value Previous research has studied the effect of the WTO’s GPA on foreign access to federal construction and other service contracts. This is the first study, however, to investigate whether these contracts impact the import sourcing behavior of the steel that is used in construction. Furthermore, while previous research measures the impact of GPA membership on the overall trade of goods and services, this paper is the first to link a particular industry with the inputs that are restricted by local content requirements such as the Buy American policy but freed up under the GPA. In general, previous research on the GPA has tried to capture the broad effect of GPA membership on trade, while this study focuses on the relationship between the GPA, federal procurement in a particular industry (construction) and import behavior of a key input, construction grade steel.

Opportunity Cost for Society Related to U.S. Truck Size and Weight Regulation: Freight Efficiency

Improvements in truck freight efficiency through such measures as optimized logistics and truck loading, the utilization of other transportation modes, and the reform of federal truck size and weight policy are expected to require fewer truck trips to move the nation’s freight. This reduction in truck travel distance should bring with it reductions in fuel consumption, emissions, and casualties as a result of reduced exposure. This paper discusses truck size and weight policy domestically and internationally and contrasts U.S. mass efficiency with that of the country’s North American Free Trade Agreement partners and, more broadly, with countries outside of North America. The analysis reveals the outdated nature of U.S. federal size and weight policy compared with other nations. The inability of U.S. federal policy to remain current with other countries is a result of a freeze on policy change that has been in place since 1982. An analysis of the societal benefits associated with improvements in truck freight efficiency is provided. Rather than estimating the precise benefits associated with the many options available, the analysis examines the benefits associated with a 10% reduction in truck travel distance. In this way, the paper provides insight into the significance of improved freight efficiency that reduces total truck travel distance, which in turn provides fuel savings, a reduction in emissions, and a reduction in truck crash frequency. The analysis concludes that a 10% reduction in truck distance traveled for a fixed national freight task would generate approximately $16 billion, save 330 lives, and prevent approximately 4,000 injuries per year.

Liberalisation and Protection under Overlapping Free Trade Agreements: Dynamic Interplay between Free Trade Agreements and Investment

AbstractTwo decades into the most recent wave of regionalism many of its implications remain to be fully understood. A vast literature has explored the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on investment flows, but less attention has been given to how existing patterns of investment alter FTA liberalisation. It is contended here that the dynamic interplay between overlapping FTA areas and the investment sunk in them shapes governments' and firms' positions regarding further FTA liberalisation. During trade negotiations, a country may decide to exclude a sector from FTA liberalisation to prevent (concession prevention) future FTA partners from making similar demands. Concession prevention could also occur when a foreign firm, holding a dominant market position in a host country, relinquishes liberalisation demands in an FTA between host and home countries to prevent its current position being eroded if the host country grants similar (or better) concessions to competing firms from other countries in future FTAs. Conversely, investment sunk into a country's sensitive sector in the territory of partners from previous FTAs could pre‐empt (concession pre‐emption) the protectionist position of that country when it subsequently negotiates FTAs with the investment‐source countries. These arguments were tested in the negotiations around the liberalisation of the automotive industry that Thailand and Malaysia had with Japan in their respective bilateral FTAs. The distinct interaction between investment and the FTAs in which these countries participate resulted either in entrenchment of protectionism in the sector or its liberalisation across subsequent FTAs.

US International Trade and the Global Economic Crisis

World trade volume is in retreat for the first time in more than two decades and the contraction is on a scale not seen since the global recession following the second oil shock of 1979–1980. The United States (US) is at the epicenter of the crisis and is a major source of external demand for developing Asia and Pacific economies. US import and export data are examined to understand the repercussions of the crisis for international trade, particularly for export-oriented economies in East and Southeast Asia. US trade with preferential trade partners is found to be contracting significantly faster than trade with the rest of the world. Moreover, US imports that avail of preferential tariff treatment are also contracting more sharply than imports from non-preferential partners. Developing Asian non-preferential suppliers appear to be performing better in the US market than free trade agreement partners. If preferential trade is faltering and trade disputes are on the rise, the question becomes whether the multilateral trading system can ride to the rescue before protectionist forces begin to strangle world trade. The failure of bilateral free trade agreements to act as a shock absorber suggests that a new global trade deal may be the way forward. The outcome is crucial as the US will need to expand net exports to restore growth and unwind its global debt obligations.

Reshaping the EU’s FTA Policy in a Globalizing Economy: The Case of the EU-Korea FTA

On 3 October 2006, the European Union (EU) initiated a new generation Free Trade Agreement (FTA) policy in Global Europe: Competing in the World. Market potential and protection level were set out as the key economic criteria for new FTA partners. Based on these criteria, South Korea emerges as one of the EU's priorities. The EU-Korea FTA, signed on 6 October 2010, is the first of a new generation of FTAs. The Agreement is very comprehensive with regard to trade liberalization in a number of fields, including services, investment, competition, enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPRs), government procurement, sustainable development, cultural cooperation, and so on. Many of these policy areas are still not well regulated by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Under the Lisbon Treaty, EU trade policy shall be conducted in the context of the principles and objectives of EU foreign policy. Leveraging trade and foreign policy is expected to strengthen the EU's position in negotiating new FTAs. This article takes the EU-Korea FTA as a case study to examine the following core issues: the historical background of the EU's trade policy, legal basis and decision-making procedure of the new generation FTA, the main contents and special features of the EU-Korea FTA, and the impacts of the EU-Korea FTA on the WTO and third countries. For the future development of EU's FTA policy, this article also proposes an open regionalism approach to make the FTA compatible with the WTO.

Analysis of Anti-dumping Use in Free Trade Agreements

Proliferating free trade agreements (FTAs) in recent years may have conflicting effects on anti-dumping (AD) uses among FTA parties. On the one hand, an FTA may increase a country's AD activities to protect its domestic industries from the increased import flows from other parties. On the other hand, an FTA supposedly helps reduce the use of AD measures to accomplish the purpose of free trade. Which effects prevail can shed important lights on the question of whether an FTA can be a stumbling block or a building block. This article examines the effects of FTAs on AD activities based on comprehensive empirical analysis. Using longitudinal data of major AD user countries from 1995 to 2009, we found that there is clearly an inverse relationship between an FTA and AD activities. This finding represents the user's tendency to trigger less AD filings against FTA membership, regardless of facing more imports from FTA partners. This article also captured dynamic FTA effects based on a series of distribution of time dummies. The estimation results from the dynamic model show that the FTA enactment year clearly has significant effect, suggesting substantial reduction of AD investigations in that year.

Virtual Water Flows in North America

The concept of virtual water – the amount of water used during the entire production chain of goods – represents a new tool for policymakers in water-scarce countries to shape policies in ways that improve water use efficiency. The present study extends work on the virtual water concept by testing a causality relationship between national water savings and economic growth of a water scarce country. Results of this study are twofold: (1) average annual precipitations explain the virtual water trade pattern in Mexico, and (2) there exists a Granger-causality relationship between agricultural and industrial growth and the annual volume of water saved in Mexico due to its acquisition of water-intensive crops from its North American Free Trade Agreement partners – Canada and the United States.

Trade Facilitation Measures under FTAs: Are They Discriminatory against Nonmembers?

Are trade facilitation measures under free trade agreements (FTAs) discriminatory? This important question has yet to be sufficiently explored by the existing literature on trade facilitation. Despite the multilateral scope and nondiscriminatory objectives of trade facilitation measures, some trade facilitation measures under FTAs can be discriminatory, similar to those in preferential tariff elimination. Based on a review of FTAs in Asia and the Pacific, this study provides detailed empirical analysis on whether or not trade facilitation provisions in FTAs are exclusive to contracting FTA partners and how the measures can be discriminatory against nonmembers.

Effects of Hub-and-Spoke Free Trade Agreements on Trade: A Panel Data Analysis

We use panel data consisting of 96 countries and covering the period 1960–2000 to investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) and hub-and-spoke systems of FTA on exports. Our empirical results imply an annual growth rate of 5.57% in exports and hence a doubling of exports after 12.4 years between FTA partners. Non-overlapping FTAs account for 4.12%, while hub-and-spoke FTAs account for 1.45% of the estimated export growth rate. This indicates that, in addition to the direct trade liberalizing effect of FTAs, the hub-and-spoke nature of FTAs has an additional positive effect on trade.

Freer Trade, More Regulation? Commercial Regulatory Provisions in Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreements

Free trade agreements (FTAs) have become a defining feature of the world trade system, expanding rapidly in number since the end of the Cold War and particularly in the Asia-Pacific, a region that was hitherto largely devoid of FTA activity. The nature of FTAs is also changing. Most incorporate a range of ‘trade plus’ measures that extend the reach of these agreements into various realms of commercial regulation, embodying specific rules on intellectual property, investment, government procurement, competition policy, and other areas of commercial practice. With conventional trade barriers (e.g. tariffs) continuing to fall and hence becoming less significant, the commercial regulatory provisions of FTAs have gained greater prominence. This article considers whether ‘freer trade’ in the early twenty-first century is increasingly concerned with setting the appropriate regulatory parameters to foster open market competition, but also competition on the regulatory terms of dominant FTA partners. The analysis centres on seven types of ‘influence effect’ associated with FTA commercial regulation, in broad terms relating to determining the liberalization embodied in agreements, shaping the domestic policy domain of FTA partners, affecting the relationship between FTAs and World Trade Organisation (WTO) accords, conferring regulatory preferences and free-rider advantages to trade partners, exhibiting cross-agreement regulatory influences, and exposing fundamental conflicts of interest on economic and social governance issues.

Predictability of the black and official exchange rates of North American Free Trade Agreement partners

Currency stability is a critical component in global commerce. This study examines the informational efficiency of the black and official exchange markets in the North American Free Trade Agreement partners. Using a series of non-parametric as well as time series models, this study finds that the black market information exhibits a non-random behaviour. The results can have implications for business executives who must deal with exchange rate risks and accumulate wealth. For policy-makers, this study shows that the black market exchange rates can be a useful guide for setting the official rates to ensure economic growth and sustainability.

Go with the Gang, ASEAN!

This study investigates the unexplored trade potentials and the economic impacts of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) between ASEAN-5 member countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) and the seven-candidate FTA partners (Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United States.) By using the gravity model and the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, this study suggests the strategic FTA partners of ASEAN-5: ASEAN plus 3 FTA, ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-US FTA, ASEAN-Japan FTA, and ASEAN-India FTA. Moreover, this study shows that ASEAN-5 would achieve more benefits from the FTAs if they fully liberalized trade among themselves partly due to less trade diversion, better resource allocation, and terms-of-trade effect improvement. The results clearly indicate the potential gains from the intra-regional free trade, and point towards the importance of the ASEAN regional cooperation.

Initiating U.S. Free Trade Agreements: How Do Potential Partners Stack Up?

We use fitted values from a standard gravity equation to rank countries as possible U.S. free trade agreement partners based on trade and investment potential. The European Union and Japan are ranked highest based on this methodology and individual Bush administration FTA initiatives generally generally are ranked very low. However, the combined affects of completed and proposed Bush FTAs have the potential to rank almost as high as the EU and Japan separately. This result is consistent with the view that, despite widespread criticism of the Bush administration's choices of FTA partners, the overall impact may be significant.

FTA Trade in Goods Agreements: 'Entrenching' the Benefits of Reciprocal Tariff Concessions

Despite the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) between nations today, academics and policy makers alike have yet to fully understand why trading nations actively pursue free trade agreements. With what aim do governments enter into an FTA? In this paper, we propose that the exclusionary effects that take place when nations are not part of an FTA are what drive non-members to seek preferential market access that an FTA ensures. An FTA works as a vehicle through which a party obtains preferential market access in a partnering country's market in exchange for access into its own market. We find support for this explanation by reviewing the trade in goods chapter of a free trade agreement. The section dealing with the trade in goods of an FTA provides the contractual terms of the reciprocal exchange of market access between FTA partners. In addition, it ensures that the expected benefits obtained from tariff elimination or reduction are protected from any future actions by an FTA partner. We conclude with a cautionary observation that the chance of a successful multilateral trade round is further reduced as the exclusionary effects of existing FTAs accelerates proliferation of new FTAs.

Computational Analysis of the Menu of US‐Japan Trade Policies

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of US‐Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential US and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers and global (multilateral) free trade. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalisation. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on non‐member countries for some of the FTAs analysed. In comparison to the welfare gains from the US and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalisation by the United States, Japan and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The US and Japan FTAs are based on ‘hub’ and ‘spoke’ arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of the Menu of U.S. Trade Policies

The Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade is used to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S. trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers, and global (multilateral) free trade. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. In comparison to the welfare gains from the U.S. FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States and the FTA partners and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U.S. FTAs are based on “hub” and “spoke” arrangements. It is shown that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system, which could be avoided if multilateral liberalization in the context of the Doha Round were to be carried out. Kozo Kiyota is Associate Professor of International Economics in the Faculty of Business Administration, Yokohama National University. He is also a Research Fellow at the Manufacturing Management Research Center (MMRC), the University of Tokyo and a Faculty Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). He received his Ph.D. from Keio University, Tokyo, Japan. His research focuses on empirical microeconomics. He has published articles in the International Journal of Industrial Organization, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, and The World Economy. Robert M. Stern is Professor of Economics and Public Policy (Emeritus) in the Department of Economics and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan.