Sewage sludge phosphorus (P) recovery presents opportunities to sustainably recycle P from cities to agriculture and alleviate global P scarcity. However, limited research explores sustainable recovery targets considering spatial-temporal variations in sludge generation and implications based on city-level local P demand. This study analyzed sludge production form 2009–2021 across 130 cities in China's Yangtze River Zone, which increased by almost 35 % from 2009 to 2021. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP), influent chemical oxygen demand (COD), and per capita drainage infrastructure were identified as the main significant influencing factors. City-level analysis revealed pronounced spatial-temporal disparities, with yearly sludge generation spanning five orders of magnitude (62–5.4 × 105 t/a). An indicator, “Potential of P recovery to local P demand”, was defined, indicating the average city-level P recycle contribution increased from 5.3 % to 18.9 % from 2009–2021. A novel frame paradigm classified cities into six types based on the local P supply-demand characteristics, prioritizing sludge P recovery and implementing strategic management. City-specific dynamics and possibilities of broader “city clusters” to match supply and demand should be considered for policy implement. Recovering P from livestock manure and kitchen waste alongside sludge can further strengthen urban P cycles. This study provides novel city-scale analysis and strategic considerations for regional sludge P recycling policies in China and beyond.
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