Risk Framework Research Articles

FINANCIAL INSTABILITY AND SHADOW BANKING RELATIONSHIP: THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The impact of shadow banking on financial stability remains a controversial issue today due to the size and complexity of these activities and the inadequate regulatory frameworks for systemic risks. In this context, shadow banking has become the focus of financial regulators due to its potential effects on financial stability. Therefore, this study was conducted to understand the impact of shadow banking on financial stability. In this study, the relationship between shadow banking and financial instability is examined using the VAR method for the example of the United States, covering the period 2000-2020. In order to create an accurate model, firstly unit root tests were performed, followed by autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests. The findings were found to be significant and Johansen cointegration test was applied. In the cointegration results, it was seen that the series were cointegrated, that is, they moved together in the long run. Finally, a Granger causality test was conducted between shadow banking and financial instability, and according to the empirical findings, it was concluded that there was a causality from shadow banking to financial instability for the period in question.

Before amplification: the role of experts in the dynamics of the social attenuation and amplification of risk

In this article, we use system/network theory together with the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) to show how expert actors over time and across multiple events can contribute to social risk amplification and attenuation. The framework and the theory, in particular the concepts of risk emplacement and displacement, are employed in the analysis of an illustrative case related to the use of the feed additive, narasin, and provide explanations of how risks are part of continuously ongoing and dynamic social processes. By emphasizing the role of experts in such developments, connecting what happens in expert communities with the processing of risks and effects on the outside, the analysis shows the larger context within which social risk attenuation and amplification happen. Showing the value of integrating different theories and perspectives, this article lays the foundations for further studies of risk amplification and attenuation dynamics. Based on the results of the analysis, we indicate opportunities to update and further develop the SARF. We also present some implications for public policy and risk management practices including addressing the positive contributions of risk amplification and how this relates to adaptive risk management approaches.

Multivariate Spectral Backtests of Forecast Distributions under Unknown Dependencies

Under the revised market risk framework of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the model validation regime for internal models now requires that models capture the tail risk in profit-and-loss (P&L) distributions at the trading desk level. We develop multi-desk backtests, which simultaneously test all trading desk models and which exploit all the information available in the presence of an unknown correlation structure between desks. We propose a multi-desk extension of the spectral test of Gordy and McNeil, which allows the evaluation of a model at more than one confidence level and contains a multi-desk value-at-risk (VaR) backtest as a special case. The spectral tests make use of realised probability integral transform values based on estimated P&L distributions for each desk and are more informative and more powerful than simpler tests based on VaR violation indicators. The new backtests are easy to implement with a reasonable running time; in a series of simulation studies, we show that they have good size and power properties.

Exploring the relationship between immigration and exposure to criminal victimization among El Paso Latinas/os

ABSTRACT Scholarship surrounding immigration and victimization has grown substantially in recent years. Prior research suggests that immigrant statuses generally protect against victimization, particularly among Latinas/os; however, seldom do studies examine the specific factors or processes that immigrant statuses signal towards. In this study, we analyze data from El Paso, Texas, Latinas/os to understand how four factors – immigrant generation, linear acculturation, familism, and machismo – impact the exposure to criminal victimization. To do so, we adapt a risk and resilience framework to help make sense of our findings. Our results indicate that of the four factors examined, only linear acculturation was significant in the full sets of models. The implications of these findings as well as limitations are discussed.

Carbon Risk Assessment in Investing Decision-Making: The Role of Carbon Pricing Policies

This study looks thoroughly into the important relationship between carbon risk assessment and investment decision-making, with a specific emphasis on the consequences of various carbon pricing regimes. Understanding how carbon risk and pricing regulations effect investment portfolios is critical in todays world, when environmental sustainability and battling climate change are vital. To clarify the topic, the study conducts a thorough assessment of current research, evaluating the several ways in which carbon price influences investment decisions. It also offers light on carbon risk measurement approaches and frameworks, providing critical insights into the complexity of environmental economics. Furthermore, the paper adds empirical case studies to its narrative, offering real-world context to theoretical frameworks and shining light on the actual implications of carbon risks and price on investment strategies. The findings are useful for investors, policymakers, and scholars attempting to navigate the complex environment of sustainable investing in a carbon-constrained society.

Navigating systemic risks: governance of and for systemic risks

Abstract Non-technical summary Systemic risks such as climate change and pandemics are complex and interconnected. Managing such risks requires effective organisational structures and processes. This publication presents conceptually robust, evidence-based approaches for assessing and managing systemic risks. Technical summary Systemic risks originate and evolve in the nexus of tightly coupled dynamic systems, which are a characteristic of modern societies in the Anthropocene. Systemic risk implies the breakdown of a system which provides essential functions to society. Connectivity between systems is a key enabler for systemic risk to manifest through cascading effects. Thus, systemic risks originate and evolve in the nexus of tightly coupled dynamic systems. Cascading effects and the convergence of systemic risks with conventional risks as well as other systemic risks challenge the established modes of risk governance that still rest to a large extent on differentiation and compartmentalisation. Thus, governance of systemic risks requires an integrative approach towards risk governance that combines interdisciplinary risk analysis with iterative, adaptive and inclusive governance procedures. By drawing on the case studies of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, this paper proposes an innovative risk governance framework for systemic risks based on the integration of systems analysis and a governance procedure with the salient features of reflection, iteration, inclusion, transparency and accountability. Social media summary Systemic risks highlight the interconnected nature of our contemporary societies which calls for tailored responses.

A Modeling Framework of Dynamic Risk Monitoring for Chemical Processes Based on Complex Networks

A Modeling Framework of Dynamic Risk Monitoring for Chemical Processes Based on Complex Networks

Experiences of discrimination and language brokering: Exploring risks and protective factors.

Language brokering (LB) often occurs in public places, putting youth who broker at risk for experiencing discrimination while engaging in brokering. Guided by the risk and resilience theoretical framework, the present study goals were twofold: (a) to examine the association between discrimination and LB, and (b) to explore moderating abilities of ethnic identity and family dynamics. Data were collected from 458 young adults (Mage = 21.36, 80% female). Participants were from a diverse region in the United States, and a majority of them self-identified as Latino (66.2%). Participants were invited to complete a one-time online survey about their LB and family experiences. We found that discrimination was negatively associated with LB for these young people. Specifically, discrimination was related to higher LB burden and higher LB role reversal, and lower LB efficacy. In addition, we found that ethnic-racial identity (ERI) acted as a moderator of LB role reversal against discrimination, and that negative family dynamics moderated the association between discrimination and LB. Positive family dynamics were not successful in buffering against negative effects of discrimination. Our findings indicate that young people who broker seem to be negatively impacted by discrimination. The effects of discrimination on LB role reversal could be alleviated by strong ERI; however, the same is not true for LB burden and LB efficacy. Furthermore, negative family dynamics exacerbated the negative effects of discrimination on LB, and positive family dynamics did not serve as a buffer against discrimination. Implications for those working with language brokers are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change

While migration is often conceptualized as an adaptive response to climate hazards, migration can also present severe risks to people on the move. In this paper, we attempt to operationalize the Representative Key Risks (RKR) framework of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for human mobility. First, we provide a framework for understanding how mobility risks emerge by engaging with the concept of habitability. We argue that uninhabitability occurs where the physical environment loses suitability and where there is a loss of agency in local populations. The severity of the risk from the loss of habitability is then represented by the high potential for human suffering. When climate hazards affect physical suitability and agency, the forms of migration that occur undermine human wellbeing and the right to self-determination: forced displacement, community relocation/resettlement, and involuntary immobility. Second, we show how such forms of mobility are more or less likely along different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). This paper asserts a central concern around human suffering to recentre scenario discourse on where, and how, adaptation, changes to development patterns, and government policies can reduce this suffering. Proactive governance at local, national, and international levels that attends to people’s adaptation and mobility needs can avert the more frequent emergence of severe risks related to mobility in a changing climate.

Future Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risks for Native Americans under Climate and Demographic Changes: A Case Study in Oklahoma

Abstract Climate change has posed inequitable risks to different communities. Among communities of color in the United States, Native Americans stand out because 1) they desire resources to sustain resilient nations and 2) they have developed nature-based solutions through experiences with local climate-related challenges, which can provide deep insight for the whole society. Projection of climate risks for Native Americans is essential to assess future risks and support their climate-ready nations, yet there has been lack of useable information. In this study, we projected three climate hazards—heavy rainfall, 2-yr floods, and flash floods—for tribal nations in Oklahoma. To break down into tribal jurisdictions, we utilize a coupled regional climate model at 4 km and flash-flood forecast model at 1 km. A hazard–exposure–vulnerability risk framework is applied to integrate both climate and demographic changes in a high-emissions scenario. It is found that 1) Indigenous people are the most vulnerable community in Oklahoma; 2) heavy rainfall and 2-yr floods have marked increases in risks at 501.1% and 632.6%, respectively, while flash floods have a moderate increase (296.4%); 3) Native Americans bear 68.0%, 64.3%, and 64.0% higher risks in heavy rainfall, 2-yr flooding, and flash flooding, respectively, than the general population in Oklahoma; 4) in comparing climate and demographic changes, it is seen that population growth leads to greater climate hazard risks than does climate change; and 5) emerging tribal nations are projected to have 10 times as much population, resulting in great exposures to climate extremes. This study can raise awareness of the impact of climate changes and draw attention to address climate injustice issues for minoritized communities. Significance Statement This study examines the impact of climate change on a marginalized community—Native Americans in Oklahoma, home to 39 federally recognized tribal nations. We utilized the high-resolution climate simulation at 4-km resolution and hydrologic simulation at 1-km resolution to aggregate three climate extremes to tribal jurisdictions. We find that climate and demographic changes disproportionately put many Native Americans at risk. The heavy rainfall, 2-yr floods, and flash floods are all projected to have increased risks by 501.1%, 632.6%, and 296.4%, respectively. Those risks are 68.0%, 64.3%, and 64.0% higher than the state average for the general population, respectively. We urge proper attention to tribal nations to address climate injustice issues as a whole with the acknowledgment of their distinct relationships to their homelands as sovereign peoples.

Development of a Hoisting Safety Risk Framework Based on the STAMP Theory and PLS-SEM Method

Development of a Hoisting Safety Risk Framework Based on the STAMP Theory and PLS-SEM Method

A national cybersecurity risk framework model proposal: cybergency management

A national cybersecurity risk framework model proposal: cybergency management

Understanding Children's Online Victimization through the Psychosocial Lens: The Roles of Loneliness, Online Social Currency, and Digital Citizenship.

This study employed a risk and resilience framework to investigate the influence of multidimensional factors, considering psychosocial and behavioral aspects, on online victimization among fifth-grade children (ages 10-11). Loneliness, online social currency disturbance, and digital citizenship were examined as predictors of online victimization. Data were collected from 196 students through a self-reported online survey conducted on electronic devices provided by the schools. The findings indicated that 78.6% of fifth-graders owned a smartphone, 70.9% had a gaming console, and the most common online activities were playing online gaming (73%), talking with friends (62.8%), and seeking entertainment (62.2%). Online victimization was prevalent, with 30.8% of children reporting they had been called bad names, 24.7% receiving rude comments, 15.9% expressing feelings of worry or threat due to online harassment, and 3.1% experiencing cyberbullying lasting for days. Furthermore, the results revealed a negative association between digital citizenship and online victimization, while loneliness and online social currency disturbance were positively associated with online victimization after accounting for children's gender and time spent online. In conclusion, this study suggests that efforts to prevent and address online victimization should prioritize promoting digital citizenship and increasing awareness of the roles of loneliness and social currency disturbances in online social dynamics.

Governance, risk and compliance frameworks applicability in the organizations

Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) is an emerging study embedding the importance of each element of the GRC and its strength in managing the organization and its sustainability. It becomes almost unavoidable to not have such a system in place. However, having it, can be costly and not efficient if the organizational system is not mature enough or financially stable enough to sustain the implementation and continuity of the GRC. The research investigates GRC systems in depth by (a) reviewing the literature on existing GRC frameworks, and (b) presenting a field study on GRC framework application in industries and organizations. The aim of this exploratory study is to understand the aspects and the nature of the GRC system following an enterprise systems approach. The result of this study is a framework of GRC characteristics that need to be taken into consideration when these systems are put in place. Structurally, this research was done based on the analysis, it is highlighted · Overview of the GRC framework; · Industry was GRC framework is most applicable; · Organization size, they mostly fit in. The result of this study is a guideline of GRC characteristics that need to be taken into consideration when these systems are put in place. By it, meaning, when deciding which governance system to put in place it is good to evaluate how it can help you in business continuity of the organization, and ability to mature and be cost effective for the organization. Further discussion about the issues, the concerns, and the diverse views on GRC would assist in developing an agenda for the future research on the GRC field.

Vulnerability assessment of heat waves within a risk framework using artificial intelligence

Current efforts to adapt to climate change are not sufficient to reduce projected impacts. Vulnerability assessments are essential to allocate resources where they are needed most. However, current assessments that use principal component analysis suffer from multiple shortcomings and are hard to translate into concrete actions. To address these issues, this article proposes a novel data-driven vulnerability assessment within a risk framework. The framework is based on the definitions from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but some definitions, such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity, are clarified. Heat waves that occurred between 2001 and 2018 in Quebec (Canada) are used to validate the framework. The studied impact is the daily mortality rates per cooling degree-days (CDD) region. A vulnerability map is produced to identify the distributions of summer mortality rates in aggregate dissemination areas within each CDD region. Socioeconomic and environmental variables are used to calculate impact and vulnerability. We compared abilities of AutoGluon (an AutoML framework), Gaussian process, and deep Gaussian process to model the impact and vulnerability. We offer advice on how to avoid common pitfalls with artificial intelligence and machine-learning algorithms. Gaussian process is a promising approach for supporting the proposed framework. SHAP values provide an explanation for the model results and are consistent with current knowledge of vulnerability. Recommendations are made to implement the proposed framework quantitatively or qualitatively.

Intersectional Microaggressions and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Perception in Bisexual Black, Indigenous, and People of Color

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), or heart diseases, are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality nationwide. Separate bodies of research indicate that Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual (LGB) individuals and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) demonstrate high risk for CVD and report greater levels of intersectional microaggressions compared with their Heterosexual White and BIPOC counterparts. Within LGB communities, Bisexual individuals report more discrimination that is associated with more CVD risk factors compared with their Heterosexual and Lesbian and Gay (LG) counterparts. Research has not examined differences in the rates of CVD risk factors between Bisexual and LG BIPOC or the associations between intersectional microaggressions and heart disease risk perception in LGB BIPOC, a relevant construct correlated with health behavior and objective risk. Participants (N= 264) self-identified as LGB BIPOC and filled out measures on their CVD risk factors, CVD risk perception, and experiences of intersectional microaggressions or intersectional minority stress. Results showed that Bisexual and LG BIPOC reported similar odds for CVD risk factors. Intersectional minority stress and CVD risk perception were positively associated with Bisexual participants only. Findings underscore the importance of extending beyond traditional biomedical frameworks of CVD risk and recognizing the unique contribution of intersectional microaggressions for LGB BIPOC, with strong associations of intersectional minority stress for Bisexual BIPOC heart health.

Ecological risk and resilient regulation shifting from city to urban agglomeration: A review

The study of urban resilience from a risk perspective is crucial for reducing urban ecological risks and achieving sustainable development in cities. However, the large scale of urban areas (urban agglomeration) poses challenges to maintaining resilience. Under the influence of the inter-city relationship, urban ecological risk transmission process and the relationship with resilience have the characteristics of nonlinear network transmission. Current relative researches ignored the transmission effect on the ecological risk complexity and relationship between ecological risk and resilience. To fill this gap, it is necessary to explore innovative methods and develop a theoretical framework for studying ecological risk and resilience regulation in urban agglomerations. This study proposes a new ecological risk and resilient regulation framework for urban agglomeration. This framework should encompass ecological risk transmission, resilience regulation and optimization, and collaborative management. The results indicate several important trends: 1) Future research should integrate urban interconnectivity into ecological risk assessment and urban network structure resilience assessment. 2) Ecological risks in urban agglomerations exhibit cumulative and infectious characteristics. 3) Factors such as water resource sharing, air pollution diffusion, ecological protection and restoration, and geographic information sharing contribute to the complexity of ecological risk and resilience research in urban agglomerations compared to individual cities. 4) The proposed new framework enables comprehensive representation of multi-source risk superposition and multi-risk levels, aiming to enhance the resilience of urban agglomerations.

Integrated tsunami risk framework considering agent-based evacuation modelling: The case of Saga, Kochi Prefecture, Japan

This study develops an integrated tsunami risk framework combining stochastic tsunami hazard and agent-based evacuation modelling. The framework is applied to the case of Saga, Kochi, Japan, with a population of ∼ 2,200 anticipated to experience significant tsunami events (∼ M9.0). First, stochastic earthquake source models are generated for two values of magnitudes (M8.8 and M9.0) and used to carry out stochastic tsunami inundation simulations. Agent-based tsunami evacuation modelling using MATSim is then performed by considering four mode scenarios: single mode (pedestrian and car) and two multimodal scenarios (mix of car and pedestrian). The stochastic tsunami simulations and agent-based evacuation modelling results are integrated to estimate the risk. The effect of existing tsunami evacuation points and tsunami evacuation towers on risk reduction is also assessed. Such an integration framework is finally used to recommend tsunami mitigation strategies in the tsunami-prone regions. Results show that a significant tsunami hazard (i.e., tsunami depth up to 15 m) is expected in the Saga district, with an arrival time between 5 and 30 min. In addition, the evacuation points on higher grounds effectively save local residents' lives, as shown by the small number of affected people, specifically for the pedestrian and multimodal models (i.e. 10-100 people, excluding the car model). However, up to ∼ 1,000 people may get affected if car is the sole mode of evacuation. Therefore, the coastal community is recommended to evacuate on foot. Finally, identifying and securing sufficient higher grounds and vertical evacuation points are essential for risk reduction.

Social Amplification and Attenuation of Flood Risk Perception by Broadcast Media Risk Messages During the 2022 Floods in Selected Southern States in Nigeria

The study examined if the flood risk messages in broadcast media in select states in Southeast and South-south Nigeria effectively amplified risk perception that influenced community response during the 2022 flood in Southern Nigeria. Consistent with the assumptions of the social amplification and attenuation of risk framework, this study looked at the frequency of the flood risk communications, gauged whether the flood risk messages were considered credible and trusted by the communities, and ascertained the extent to which the messages increased public worries and provoked a sense of threat and response to the flood hazards. The data were gathered from 380 flood victims in 4 communities in Anambra (Southeast) and Delta (South-south) States using a descriptive survey method. The study found that the broadcast media information and warnings were credible and increased public concerns but the amplification of flood risk perception in the broadcast media were not effectual as the risk communication did not start in time and the impact of the messages was moderated by institutional, social, economic and psychological variables that affected how the communities perceived, managed and responded to the flood risk messages. The study recommended that the flood risk messages should be timely, emphasise the severity of the threat of an impending flood, and sufficiently dramatize the message and the threat..

Identification and analysis of hoisting safety risk factors for IBS construction based on the AcciMap and cases study

Hoisting is an essential aspect of Industrial Building System (IBS) construction. Although research on hoisting safety in China has made strides to focus on “worker,” “data,” “task,” “site,” and “accident,” there still needs to be more approaches based on multi-dimensional social system thinking. Therefore, the paper aims to fill this gap. We investigated 105 hoisting accidents in China and found that hoisting accidents occurred most frequently in China's southeast coastal region; truck-mounted cranes and tower cranes were the most common types of machinery involved in accidents; hoisting load off, capsizing of crane machinery, and workers falling from height are the three most common accident types; the average impact of a single hoisting accident is approximately RMB 2.43 million direct economic loss, 1.543 deaths and 0.829 injured. This study used three algorithms (Rindge regression, Lasson regression, and partial least squares regression) to explore the impact of deaths and injuries on direct economic losses. By combining Rasmussen's risk framework with the characteristics of hoisting construction, six risk domains and thirty-six safety risk factors were identified. Finally, we used AcciMap technology to construct a qualitative IBS hoisting management model, which exhaustively presents the systematic levels and propagation paths of the influencing factors by the PDCA method. The research helps academics explore strategies to improve the safety of hoisting construction in IBS. Moreover, the study outcomes can inform the policy-making process towards promoting healthy and sustainable construction development.