Fourth Season Research Articles

Bones cracking]: Reading and listening to Foley and captions

Closed captions are a vital tool of sonic access for D/deaf and hard of hearing audio-viewers, detailing dialogue alongside notable sound effects and music. As evidenced by the recent virality of the captions in the Netflix series Stranger Things, captions are increasingly playing a key role in the sonic experience for many audio-viewers. From captions such as [tentacles undulating moistly] to [wet footsteps squelch], captions shape and articulate sounds, working both alone and alongside other sonic elements. Yet, while captions crucially anchor sonic meaning for a growing audience, captions are still a critically understudied dimension of film and media sound. Drawing upon the visceral captions and squelching sound effects of the fourth season of Stranger Things, this article details the parallels between closed captions and the custom synchronized sound effects of Foley. Captions crucially emphasize the narrative and characterizing effects of Foley sounds, from an oozing moist [squelch] that turns the stomach to the vivid snap of [bones cracking]. In turn, Foley sound offers a vital new framework from which to understand the sonicity of captions. As an artistic practice of reconfiguration and substitutions, Michel Chion’s seminal distinction between real and rendered sounds underpins theorizations of Foley, where a broken celery vividly renders the emotive impact of bones breaking. This article contends that captions can similarly be understood as rendering sound, a move that ultimately folds captions such as [wet writhing], [creatures chittering] and [flesh tearing] into larger sound theories, highlighting the sonic significance and generative possibilities of access tools.

‘We must be happy that times are different now’. Shaping public memory of Danish colonial history in popular culture

ABSTRACT In recent years Denmark’s legacy as a colonial power has become a topic of political, cultural, and public debate. The article discusses how Denmark’s colonial relationship with Greenland is presented to a contemporary Danish audience in the film, The Experiment (2010), and in the fourth season of the TV drama, Borgen (2022). These popular cultural artefacts, we claim, not only reflect, but have informed public and political debate in Denmark about its colonial past, including historical and present-day civic norms and their implementation into political practice. In this way, they have contributed to a renegotiation of public morality and memory.

Assessment of Soil Enzyme Activities in Plant Root Zone of Saline Soil Reclaimed by Drip Irrigation with Saline Groundwater

Drip irrigation with saline water is frequently adopted to realize the sustainable utilization of saline–sodic soil with high water tables, and soil enzyme activities can be used to indicate changes in soil quality. In the current study, spatiotemporal changes in soil urease enzyme (URE), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and invertase (INV) activities were investigated during consecutive growing seasons. Soil in beds was sampled before planting (0 y) and one, two, three and four years after the growing season (1 y, 2 y, 3 y, 4 y), and these samples were distributed at four horizontal distances from the drip line (0, 10, 20 and 30 cm) and four vertical soil depths (0–10, 10–20, 20–30 and 30–40 cm). The results showed that a distribution pattern of URE and ALP activities formed during the first growing season, while the distribution of INV activity formed until the third growing season. All three soil enzyme activities in the upper soil layers and positions close to the drip line were more greatly affected by planting year. The average URE activity of the soil profile decreased slightly during the first year and increased by about 220% and decreased by 20% after reclamation for two and three years, and finally, it increased to 4.9 μg NH4+·g−1·h−1 at the end of the fourth growing season. ALP activity remained stable during the first two years and rapidly increased in the following years; in particular, in the fourth year, it reached 32.7 μg ph(OH)·g−1·h−1. INV activity increased continually with the number of years after planting and reached 1009.0 μg glu·g−1·h−1 at the fourth season’s end. An analysis of variance indicated that URE, ALP and INV activities varied insignificantly among the time points of 0 y, 1 y, 2 y and 3 y (p < 0.05), while they were significantly higher for 4 y than for 0 y and 1 y. In addition, all three enzyme activities of the soil profile had an exponentially increasing trend with the number of years after planting. These results indicated the soil quality in saline–sodic soils could be improved with time under drip irrigation with local saline groundwater, especially around the drip line.

‘Rootpac R’ for Apricots? Yes!

The rootstock ‘Rootpac R’ is not used for apricots. The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of ‘Rootpac R’ in comparison to the widely used ‘Myrobalan 29C’ rootstock. The evaluation of the rootstocks was conducted in combination with 16 scion cultivars to assess their effects on vegetative traits and mortality. The total height of the trees on ‘Rootpac R’ initially surpassed the ‘Myrobalan 29C’ trees. By the end of the fourth year, both rootstocks showed comparable heights with ‘Rootpac R’ standing at 317 cm and ‘Myrobalan 29C’ standing at 307 cm. Both rootstocks exhibited comparable TCSA values of 5 cm2 initially; ‘Rootpac R’ surpassed 35% compared to ‘Myrobalan 29C’. Canopy space occupancy assessments revealed that ‘Rootpac R’ initially demonstrated superior space utilization, occupying 8% of the designated volume compared to 4% for ‘Myrobalan 29C’. By the fourth year, ‘Rootpac R’ exhibited a higher occupancy rate of 65% compared to 50% for ‘Myrobalan 29C’. For apricot cultivars, such as ‘Bergeron’, ‘C. óriás’, ‘Gönci magyarkajszi’, ‘Lady Cot’, ‘Tardif de Valance’, and ‘Tom Cot’, ‘Rootpac R’ exhibited survival rates beyond the fourth season, highlighting its effectiveness for these varieties. Based on these results, ‘Rootpac R’ rootstock could be useful in apricot growing.

Fire effects on the reproductive potential of two dominant woody species along an elevation gradient in central Argentina

Fire and elevation affect reproduction of woody species and, therefore, their distribution in the landscape; however, the effect of both factors are often confounded. In addition, plant size may also influence reproduction. Our objective was to investigate the combined effects of fire, elevation and pre-fire size on woody species reproductive potential in a seasonally dry mountain ecosystem. We tested the predictions that fire and elevation impair reproductive potential and that the negative effects of fire are enhanced at high elevation. Our study was carried out in the mountains of central Argentina, from 800 to 1700 m a.s.l. We selected individuals of two dominant resprouting woody species (Vachellia caven and Lithraea molleoides) in burned and comparable unburned areas. We estimated pre-fire size and fire damage level in each tree. We monitored parameters related to reproductive potential during four post-fire fruiting seasons in 185 V. caven and 78 L. molleoides trees. Our main results for V. caven show negative fire effects on most reproductive parameters, and on the expected number of germinable seeds per tree, which was estimated as an integrated parameter. The negative fire effects decreased over time until the fourth post-fire fruiting season, when we detected almost no fire effects. Moreover, the negative fire effects were greatly enhanced with elevation, while pre-fire size showed consistently positive effects on most reproductive parameters. For large trees located at low elevation, fire reduced the number of germinable seeds per tree by a factor of nearly six in the third post-fire fruiting season (from 2020 to 358 seeds), while at high elevation fire reduced germinable seeds by a factor of 15 (from 106 to 7 seeds) for similarly large trees. Small trees had a lower reproductive potential than large trees and the negative effects of fire were smaller but noticeable, and were enhanced by elevation, as in the case of large trees. For L. molleoides we found similar patterns to those of V. caven; however, since few trees produced seeds during the study, we did not compute formal statistics. We conclude that fire reduction should gradually increase reproductive potential, tree density and forest cover at high elevation, even when, according to previous studies, survival is not affected by fire or elevation in the study species.

Coxiella burnetii infection persistence in a goat herd during seven kidding seasons after an outbreak of abortions: the effect of vaccination.

Q fever is a zoonosis distributed worldwide. Ruminants are the main reservoir, and infection can cause high rates of abortion. After entering a farm, Coxiella burnetii infection can persist in the animal population over several lambing/kidding periods. Once infection is established in a herd, vaccination with the inactivated Phase I vaccine significantly reduces bacterial shedding, but although at low levels, excretion may continue to occur for several lambing/kidding seasons. The time that C. burnetii remains viable in the farm environment after an outbreak of Q fever determines the period when risk of infection is high for the people in close contact. This work showed that this period extends at least three kidding seasons after the outbreak. These results provided valuable information on the epidemiology of C. burnetii infection in goat herds and may help to develop guidelines for controlling the disease and reducing infection risk for susceptible people and animals.

Performance analysis of the teams that remained in the top-tier division of the Spanish LaLiga during eight consecutive seasons

The present study aimed to analyse the performance of 2212 collective observations of the eight teams that remained in the Spanish men’s top professional football division (Spanish LaLiga) for eight consecutive seasons (from 2011–2012 to 2018–2019), intending to understand the reference values of these teams. The variables recorded were passes, successful passes, crosses, shots, goals, corners, fouls, width, length, height, distance from the goalkeeper to the nearest defender (GkDef) and total distance covered (TD). A linear mixed model was performed for each dependent variable ( p < 0.05). The main results were: (1) the eight teams, to a large extent, maintained a stable performance throughout the eight seasons analysed; (2) the length values decreased significantly from the fifth season (from 2015–2016 to 2018–2019); (3) the GkDef values decreased significantly from the fourth season (from 2014–2015 to 2018–2019); and 4) the TD values decreased significantly from the third season (from 2013–2014 to 2018–2019). The study concludes that within the framework of a performance stability, the teams over the seasons increased the density of players (e.g. less effective playing space), playing with the goalkeeper closer to the nearest defender of his team and covering less total distance.

Potassium fertigation and organic fertilisation in ‘Syrah’ grape in Northeastern Brazil: yield, must characteristics and phenolic compounds

The effect of both potassium and organic fertilisation on grape yield and must composition originating from wine grapevines cultivated in the São Francisco river basin, in the semi-arid region of Northeastern Brazil, is not well known. Since soils from that region usually have low organic matter content, we hypothesise that soil application of organic fertiliser and potassium application through drip irrigation enhances the availability of this nutrient in the soil, and it influences grape yield and quality. Hence, five doses of potassium (0, 20, 40, 80 and 160 kg ha-1) applied through a drip irrigation system and two doses of goat manure as organic fertiliser applied into the soil (0 and 7.5 m3 ha-1) after pruning were evaluated concerning yield and berry quality of grapevine ‘Syrah’ over four growing seasons (April 2013 to July 2015) in Petrolina, state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The experimental design was randomised blocks with 5 replications. We evaluated yield (t ha-1), weight of 100 berries (g), must volume (mL), total soluble solids (°Brix), pH and total titratable acidity (‰), K, Mg and Ca contents and phenolic compounds (total polyphenols, anthocyanins and flavonoids). The increasing application of potassium at the different doses of organic fertiliser did not alter the crop yield, except in the second season. Nonetheless, K concentration in grape must was influenced in the four growing seasons, with higher values at fitted K2O doses by polynomial regression of 83.62 kg ha-1 (first season), 101.25 kg ha-1 (second season), 120.00 kg ha-1 (third season) and 77.99 kg ha-1 (0 m3 ha-1 organic fertiliser) and 96.07 kg ha-1 (7.5 m3 ha-1 organic fertiliser) in the fourth season. The addition of increasing doses of potassium interfered with the wine grape quality, which is an important factor to be considered in relation to its acidity. Organic fertilisation did not affect the most quality characteristics of the grapes.

Effect of Mulching Manures and Use of Heterorhabditis Bacteriophora on Strawberry Fruit Yield Temnorhynchus baal and Meloidogyne javanica Under Field Conditions

Abd-Elgawad, M.M.M., L.W. Duncan, M.M.A. Hammam, F. El-Borai and I.E. Shehata. 2024. Effect of Mulching Manures and Use of Heterorhabditis Bacteriophora on Strawberry Fruit Yield Temnorhynchus baal and Meloidogyne javanica Under Field Conditions. Arab Journal of Plant Protection, 42(3): 306-317. https://doi.org/10.22268/AJPP-001262 The importance of safe methods to manage strawberry pests has become more evident with increasing strawberry production and export in Egypt. Root damage by white grubs (Temnorhynchus baal larvae) and root-knot nematode (RKN), Meloidogyne javanica cause severe losses to strawberry fruit yield. Growers often rely on a few selective chemical pesticides to control these pests and to minimize pesticide residues in order to comply with maximum residue limits allowed for fruit export. Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) that invade and kill grubs and reduce RKN population levels in the soil may be as effective as these insecticides in some cases. We evaluated the profitability of mulching strawberry with commonly used cow and/or chicken manure, with and without application of commercial Heterorhabditis bacteriophora in two farms for four consecutive years. All plots received chemical fertilizers. The designed drip irrigation system for EPN delivery in the farms insured efficient and even (P < 0.05) application of EPN in all treatments. Timing of EPN application varied due to import regulatory guidelines. All manure mulch treatments increased strawberry yield each year at a farm in Al-Qalyubia governorate, whereas yield remarkably increased in the fourth season at the farm in El-Beheira governorate. Compared to EPN-treated plots, 70% more (P = 0.06) insects were recovered in soil beneath dead plants in plots that did not receive EPNs. Heterorhabditis bacteriophora boosted fruit yield (P < 0.05) in the second and fourth years at El-Beheira and in all years at Al-Qalyubia. It reduced (P < 0.05) numbers of Meloidogyne javanica galls/egg masses on strawberry roots and juveniles in the soil in both farms. Mulches had no measurable effect on EPN performance, but suppressed pests and boosted plant productivity. The greatest yield enhancement by EPN occurred in the second year at El-Beheira farm when EPNs were applied shortly after planting (October), enabling early season control of the pests, but in the third year at Al-Qalyubia farm where the weather was generally warmer than that at El-Beheira, and therefore more suitable for EPN activity. Keywords: Strawberry yield, entomopathogenic nematodes, Meloidogyne, mulching, Egypt.

Outcomes from monitoring the fourth year of a five-year voluntary transition from hunting with lead to non-lead shotgun ammunition in Britain

The 2023/2024 shooting season was the fourth since UK shooting and rural organisations announced their intention that hunters should make a full voluntary transition from the use of lead to non-lead shotgun ammunition by 2025. The SHOT-SWITCH research project has monitored the proportions of wild-shot common pheasants Phasianus colchicus available to consumers in Great Britain that were killed using lead and non-lead shot in each of the shooting seasons since the beginning of the transition. In the study’s fourth season, 2023/2024, 93% of pheasants obtained during the usual sampling period had been killed using lead ammunition. Whilst this indicates a marginal decline in the proportion of pheasants shot using lead since the beginning of the transition, when it was over 99%, much remains to be done if the intended full voluntary transition to non-lead shotgun ammunition is to be achieved in its final season (2024/2025). Some food retailers intend to cease selling game meat products from animals killed using lead ammunition. Our study indicates that whilst all of a small sample of pheasant carcasses obtained from one of these retailers (Marks & Spencer) were from birds killed using non-lead shot, a larger sample obtained from another of the retailers (Waitrose) had mostly been killed using lead shot.

Четыре религиозных системы в сериале «Мир Дикого Запада»

The paper focuses on the religious ideas of the series «Westworld». The meanings of the labyrinth as a place of gaining self-awareness and a space of pagan sacrifices are revealed. It is shown that in the series the creation of the world and man demonstrates the features of various religious systems: Old Testament monotheism, Zoroastrian dualism and Christianity. Parallels are drawn between the development of the plot of the second season and the biblical plot of the Exodus. The symbolism of the Tower of Babel in the third and fourth seasons of the series is analyzed, as well as the concept of Christian sacrifice given by means of technology in the post-Christian world.

Effect of Cultivar and Temperature on Disease Development of Macrophomina Root Rot in Strawberry

Root rot, or charcoal rot, caused by the soilborne fungus Macrophomina phaseolina, is a significant disease affecting strawberry production worldwide. Field trials were conducted for five seasons (2016–2017 to 2020–2021) to evaluate strawberry host plant resistance to Macrophomina root rot (MRR) in California. A wide range of plant resistance to MRR was observed. Because low disease severity occurred in the fifth season, a summary of the first to fourth seasons showed that ‘Osceola’ was highly resistant, whereas ‘Festival’, ‘Sweet Ann’, and ‘Ruby June’ were highly susceptible. Disease severity varied over the seasons for specific cultivars, as did the average final mortality for all cultivars. Models were built to investigate the relationship between environmental variables and final disease mortality among the seasons. Strong positive associations were found between the soil temperature during the first month after planting ( R2 = 0.79, P < 0.0001) or air temperature mid-season ( R2 = 0.79, P < 0.0001) and the final disease mortality of eight cultivars. We concluded that the soil temperature during the early stage of plant development and the mid-season air temperature are important factors in disease development for MRR. Screening new strawberry cultivars and elite breeding lines against MRR should be ongoing as part of a standard process for determining the susceptibility of currently grown and potentially new cultivars.

Quantifying earthworm soil ingestion from changes in vertical bulk density profiles

Soil mixing by earthworms can have a large impact on the fate of nutrients and pollutants and on the soil's ability to sequester carbon. Nevertheless, methods to quantify earthworm ingestion and egestion under field conditions are largely lacking. Soils of the Fennoscandian tundra offer a special possibility for such quantifications, as these soils commonly lack burrowing macrofauna and exhibit a well-defined O horizon with low bulk density on top of a mineral soil with higher density. Since ingestion-egestion mixes the two soil layers, the temporal changes in the bulk density profile of such soils may be useful for estimating field ingestion rates. In this study, we applied a model for earthworm burrowing through soil ingestion to observed changes in soil densities occurring in a mesocosm experiment carried out in the arctic during four summers with intact soil. The earthworms present in the mesocosms were Aporrectodea trapezoides, Aporrectodea tuberculata, Aporrectodea rosea, Lumbricus rubellus and Lumbricus Terrestris (fourth season only). We show that changes in soil density profiles can indeed be used to infer earthworm ingestion rates that are realistic in comparison to literature values. Although uncertainties in parameter values were sometimes large, the results from this study suggest that soil turnover rates and endogeic earthworm soil ingestion rates in tundra heath and meadow soils may be as high as those reported for temperate conditions. Such large ingestion rates can explain observed large morphological changes in arctic soils where dispersing earthworms have resulted in complete inmixing of the organic layer into the mineral soil. Our approach is applicable to soil profiles with marked vertical differences in bulk density such as the soils of the Fennoscandian tundra where earthworms are currently dispersing into new areas and to layered repacked soil samples that are incubated in the field.

The Goal Is For You to Get Better: Comparing the Representations of Biomedical and Mental Health Treatment in the Television Series Bates Motel

The current study explored the representation of biomedical treatment and mental health treatment in the television series Bates Motel. We used a sample of episodes from the fourth season of the series to create a set of codes inductively. We did this to answer two research questions about the topics of conversation and verbal expressions with character dialogue. Results revealed the distinctions in topics of conversation and verbal expressions by examining dialogue between either the biomedical patient and mental health patient and a conversation partner. Appendix A shows a detailed listing of episodes coded. Results also showed that communication was more hopeful and agreeable in the biomedical settings, more procedural (or direct), worried, and urgent in the mental health setting. In both settings, we found communication was caring between provider and patient. Future research should expand on this small yet important sample, even considering smaller samples of episodes as case studies of media representations of health settings.

System Productivity and Balance of Soil Phosphorus in Rice - Zero till Maize (Zea mays L.) Cropping System as Influenced by Levels of Phosphorus

Aims: To study the phosphorus requirement of Rice - zero till maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system on system productivity and soil available Phosphorus balance. Study Design: Randomized block design (two factors). Methodology: The field experiment was conducted for two consecutive years at the College of Agriculture, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad. Levels of P2O5 (kg ha-1) applied to rice (5 levels) and maize (3 levels) respectively were (P0-30, P0-45, P0-60, P10-30, P10-45, P10-60, P20-30, P20-45, P20-60, P30-30, P30-45, P30-60, P40-30, P40-45 and P40-60). Results: In terms of system productivity (maize grain equivalent yield kg ha-1 annum-1) of rice–maize cropping system, the P40-60 and P30-60 treatments were found better than other Phosphorus management strategies. The balance sheet of available Phosphorus in soil at the end of fourth season revealed that input-output balance was positive with P40-60 and P30-60 by specifying the application of 30 kg P2O5 ha-1 and/or 40 kg P2O5 ha-1 to rice and 60 kg P2O5 ha-1 to maize in rice-zero till maize cropping system.

Henslow’s Sparrow shows positive response to prescribed fire rotation

Abstract We examined Henslow’s Sparrow (Centronyx henslowii) response to prescribed fire at 32 grasslands at Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Indiana from 1999 to 2009. We burned grasslands in the spring between 1999 and 2007 and monitored Henslow’s Sparrows for up to 4 yr after treatment. We used linear mixed models to analyze our data. Henslow’s Sparrow counts were correlated with time since prescribed fire and grassland size. The estimated changes in mean Henslow’s Sparrow density relative to pre-burn densities were −0.19, 1.15, 0.74, and −0.68 birds ha−1 for 1–4 breeding seasons after a spring burn, respectively. We found that Henslow’s Sparrows preferred larger grasslands both during the first breeding season after prescribed fire, when vegetation was presumed to possess less litter and structural density, and during the fourth breeding season after fire, when vegetation was presumed to be a more ideal composition, but preferred smaller grasslands in the interim. Thus, grassland size shapes the magnitude of Henslow’s Sparrow population response to fire, with populations in smaller grasslands experiencing greater amplitude changes. Larger grasslands might provide more habitat diversity following prescribed fire, attenuating population change. On average, Henslow’s Sparrows responded positively to prescribed fire in a network of grasslands and cumulative net change in densities were highest three breeding seasons after a burn suggesting that maintaining this burn frequency would be beneficial to Henslow’s Sparrow abundance.

A rice–chicory rotation pattern ensures safe grain production and phytoremediation of cadmium-contaminated paddy fields: A four-year field experiment in southern China

Cadmium (Cd) contamination in paddy systems is a serious problem, and a strategy must be devised that ensures safe grain production and rapid remediation of soil Cd contamination. To investigate the remediation potential of crop rotation and its effect on Cd accumulation in rice, a four-year (seven-season) rice–chicory rotation field trial was conducted on a moderately acidic Cd-contaminated paddy soil. Rice was planted in summers, followed by straw removal, and chicory, a Cd-enrichment plant, was planted during winter fallows. Rotation effects were compared with those with rice only (control). Rice yields between the rotation and control were not significantly different, whereas Cd concentrations in rice tissues decreased in the rotation. Cd concentration in brown rice of the low-Cd variety decreased to less than 0.2 mg/kg (national food safety standard) from the third season onward, whereas in the high-Cd variety, it decreased from 0.43 mg/kg in the first season to 0.24 mg/kg in the fourth season. The highest Cd concentration in chicory aboveground parts was 24.47 mg/kg, with an enrichment factor of 27.81. Chicory had high regenerative capacity and was repeatedly harvested for biomass in multiple mowings, with average aboveground biomass over 2000 kg/ha in a single mowing. Theoretical phytoextraction efficiency (TPE) of one rice season with straw removal was 0.84%–2.44%, whereas the highest TPE of one chicory season reached 8.07%. The seven seasons of rice–chicory rotation extracted up to 407 g/ha Cd from soil with a TPE exceeding 20%. Therefore, rice–chicory rotation and straw removal can effectively reduce Cd accumulation in subsequent rice crops, without interrupting production and simultaneously rapidly remediating Cd-contaminated soil. Thus, the production potential of light to moderately Cd-contaminated paddy fields can be realized with crop rotation.

Impact of Integrating Annual and Perennial Legumes under Coffea arabica on Sloping Land

Above-ground biomass cover under Coffea arabica on sloping land is beneficial but difficult to sustain. Interplanting annual and perennial legumes can sustain the above-ground biomass cover, and improve soil fertility, yield, and profitability. This was tested on 26 sloping farms in a four-growing season experiment on undersowing C. arabica with new crop combinations: Mucuna pruriens var. utilis (T1); Millettia dura Dunn (T2); a combination of M. pruriens and M. dura (T3); and the control with a no-cover legume (T4). On each farm, all treatments followed a randomized single-block design. T3 produced 8.7 mt/ha/yr above-ground biomass that was significantly (p < 0.01) higher than other treatments and was increasing with the seasons. Under T3, plant-available nitrogen (N) and potassium (K) increased more than in other treatments. During the fourth season, coffee yield in T3 was 54%, 22%, and 11% higher than in T4, T2, and T1, respectively. The gross profit under T3 was 86% higher than in T4 in the fourth season. This indicates that interplanting a combination of M. pruriens and M. dura under C. arabica on sloping land can sustainably increase above-ground biomass cover, soil’s plant-available N and K, coffee yield, and profitability. Based on the results, the combination of M. pruriens and M. dura is recommended to optimize coffee production under the described conditions.

Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa

Abstract One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Multiyear La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST patterns in the tropical Pacific and adjacent ocean basins often differ substantially between first- and second-year La Niñas, which can change how these events affect regional climate. Here, we demonstrate that multiyear La Niña events favor drought in the Horn of Africa in three consecutive seasons [October–December (OND), March–May (MAM), OND]. But they do not tend to increase the probability of a fourth season of drought owing to the sea surface temperatures and associated atmospheric teleconnections in the MAM long rains season following second-year La Niña events. First-year La Niñas tend to have both greater subsidence over the Horn of Africa, associated with warmer waters in the west Pacific that enhance the Walker circulation, and greater cross-continental moisture transport, associated with a warm tropical Atlantic, as compared to second-year La Niñas. Both the increased subsidence and enhanced cross-continental moisture transport favors drought in the Horn of Africa. Our results provide a physical understanding of the sources and limitations of predictability for using multiyear La Niña forecasts to predict drought in the Horn of Africa.

2204. Pathogen Co-infections and Trends in Influenza-like Illness in PAIVED

Abstract Background The Pragmatic Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Department of Defense (DoD) (PAIVED) is a multicenter, multiservice study assessing influenza vaccine effectiveness in active-duty service members, retirees, and dependents. In its fourth season (2021/22), PAIVED offers a unique opportunity to examine influenza-like illness (ILI) trends prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic in a prospectively followed, well-defined cohort. Methods Over the past 4 influenza seasons, PAIVED has enrolled DoD beneficiaries who were randomized to receive egg-based, cell-based, or recombinant-derived influenza vaccine. Participants provided some basic demographic information and were then sent a weekly text or email that inquired about ILI symptoms, defined as 1) having cough or sore throat, plus 2) feeling feverish/having chills or having body aches/fatigue. Participants with ILI completed a daily symptom diary for one week and submitted a nasal swab for PCR-based pathogen detection. Table 1.Demographic characteristics of PAIVED participants over four seasonsFigure 1.Percent of PAIVED participants with influenza-like illness, SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and rhinovirus identified in swab samples collected over four seasons. Results Over the 4 seasons, 15,449 participants were followed for ILI (Table 1) with 3,407 participants reporting a total of 3,985 ILIs. For the 2021/22 season, ILI reports peaked in January (Figure 1). Overall, 4.7% of episodes had more than one pathogen identified (Table 2). Among the 122 coinfections identified to date, most were coinfections with rhinoviruses (91/122, 75%), including rhinovirus coinfections with seasonal coronaviruses (29, 24%), metapneumovirus (18, 15%), SARS-CoV-2 (17, 14%), and influenza (14, 11%). SARS-CoV-2 and influenza were found together in one sample. The lab data will continue to be processed for the current season (2021/22). Table 2.Pathogens identified in PAIVED nasal swabs over four seasons Conclusion ILI rates were lowest during the third year (2020/21), consistent with national influenza surveillance reports of influenza and outpatient ILI activity, suggesting that measures taken to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 reduced the spread of other respiratory viruses. The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in December 2021 was associated with higher ILI rates. Among those individuals for whom a sample was collected, coinfections were highest in 2018/19. Data collection and specimen analysis are ongoing for 2021/22. Disclosures Jitendrakumar Modi, MD, GlaxoSmithKline: I am a paid speaker for GSK. I do not speak for their flu brand. Timothy Burgess, MD, MPH, AstraZeneca: The HJF, in support of the USU IDCRP, was funded to conduct or augment unrelated Phase III Mab and vaccine trials as part of US Govt. COVID19 response.