Fourth Quarters Research Articles

The Economic Situation: Chapter I. The Home Economy

The recovery in economic activity which took place in the third and fourth quarters of 1968 has been sharply braked in the first three months of this year.However, the picture provided by the published national income statistics of the movement in output in the last quarter of last year is a confusing one : the income and output measures showed increases of 1 per cent on the third quarter level, whilst the expenditure-based measure showed a rise of some 3½ per cent. Averaging the three gives an increase of nearly 2 per cent, but even this should probably be regarded as an overestimate of the true rise in output ; the expenditure figures throughout 1968 showed considerable variations, associated with marked movements in consumers' expenditure which were probably not correctly offset by changes in the recorded stockbuilding figures, and the fourth quarter of 1968 again saw a very large rise in consumers' expenditure, partly reflecting anticipation of the November measures.

Chapter II. Forecasts for the Economy

Output probably continued to rise quite strongly in the fourth quarter of 1968, although in a more restrained manner than in the previous quarter. The rate of rise of industrial production tailed off slightly. Unemployment fell substantially, but movements in this series are not a very good guide to contemporaneous movements in demand and output, appearing as they do to lag quite heavily behind such shifts. (Thus, the quite large reduction in the numbers of wholly unemployed (over 45 thousand, seasonally adjusted) between the third and fourth quarters predominantly reflects the sharp recovery of output in the third quarter, when unemployment rose by 30 thousand.)

The Direct Effects of Federal Manpower Programs in Reducing Unemployment

An estimate of the direct effects of federal manpower programs on the unemployment rate is made quarterly for the years 1965 through 1967. Four manpower programs are included in the estimates: Neighborhood Youth Corps, On-the-Job Training under the Manpower Development and Training Act, Community Action (paid nonprofessionals), and College Work Study. These programs accounted for an average of nearly half a million jobs in 1967. The study indicated that the programs led to a reduction of 0.15 percent in the over-all unemployment rate in 1965, 0.3 percent in 1966, and 0.4 percent in 1967 (from 4.2 to 3.8 percent). The Neighborhood Youth Corps accounted for two-thirds of the total reduction in 1967. The four programs had a far greater impact on the unemployment rate of youth aged 16-21, resulting in a reduction of 2.5 percent (from 13.5 to 11.0 percent). Because the study considers only the effects of four manpower programs, it underestimates the total effect of federal manpower programs in reducing underemployment. Since the study considers only direct effects, it also excludes the reduction in unemployment caused by increasing the skill of the labor force and the multiplier effects of government spending. A rough estimate is also made of the effect of four new manpower programs on employment in the third and fourth quarters in 1967. Because the new programs were just getting under way, the effect was negligible.

The Economic Situation: Chapter I. The Home Economy

This analysis and forecast for the economy is mainly concerned with the effects of devaluation and the associated measures taken. It begins, therefore, with a separate analysis of these effects. These are then superimposed on the pre-devaluation forecast for 1968. Briefly, this pre-devaluation forecast showed a rise in real gross national product of 3½ per cent between the years 1967 and 1968, and a rather higher rise than this—of nearly 4 per cent—between the fourth quarters of 1967 and 1968. It also showed a ‘basic’ deficit, on current and long-term capital account (including a ‘normal’ balancing item) of £275 million in 1967 and £250 million in 1968.

Bionomics of Anopheline Mosquitos in Inland Areas of Java, with Special Reference to Anopheles aconitus Dön

Anopheles aconitus Dön. has long been known as an important vector of malaria in Indonesia. More recently it has been shown to be the principal, if not the only vector in the inland areas of Java. A. maculatus Theo. has been regarded as an important vector in hilly regions.The observations recorded in the present paper were carried out in an inland area in East Java between June 1957 and May 1958, and in a hilly one in West Java between April 1956 and March 1957, and were concerned, in particular, with the resting and feeding habits of these two species in so far as they might influence methods of control.A. aconitus is found in great numbers throughout the year with a major peak of density from March to May, about harvest time of the first and more extensive rice crop.In the areas studied, A. aconitus is largely exophilic and, where man is concerned, exophagous, nearly three times as many examples being taken biting man outdoors as indoors, and 17 per cent. of 359 examples taken outdoors were positive for human blood as compared with 5 per cent. of 1,438 examples from all situations. Of the remainder, 93·5 per cent. were positive for ox. On the whole, therefore, this species is highly, though not exclusively, zoophilic and readily enters cattle-sheds, built of bamboo matting, to feed, and, in those sheds that have walls as well as roofs, up to 75 per cent. may remain for at least two hours after having fed, and appreciable but variable numbers of fully fed individuals may remain during day-time.Most of the feeding on man outdoors took place before midnight, and, on cattle in sheds, between midnight and 0600 hr., with peaks between midnight and 0100 hr. and between 0400 and 0500 hr., respectively. Peak periods of entry into an animal-baited trap were during the second and fourth quarters of the night.These results differ somewhat from those reported from certain other localities in Java by other workers. There is, therefore, a need for careful repetition, in other areas, of studies of the bionomics and for experiments on the effect on a population of A. aconitus of applications of a residual insecticide.A. maculatus occurs in the hilly area in considerable numbers throughout the year, and there seems to be no great seasonal fluctuation. This species rests mainly on coffee and palm plants both by day and by night, but readily enters cattle-sheds at night. No blood-meals from this species were subjected to the precipitin test. It is suggested that the importance of A. maculatus in the transmission of malaria needs further investigation.Over 1,000 examples of A. maculatus and A. aconitus, taken in the hilly area, were dissected, but no malaria infection was found.A. vagus Dön. is present in the inland area in large numbers during the greater part of the year, with its peak from November to February, during the rainy season. It is more endophilic and endophagous than A. aconitus but is not considered important in malaria transmission.A. annularis Wulp has its peak in March, and A. kochi Dön. in May. A. barbirostris Wulp, A. subpictus malayensis Hack, and A. tessallatus Theo. were found only in small numbers. All these species are highly zoophilic in the areas studied; they are not considered important in malaria transmission.

Organization for European Economic Cooperation

A report on the work of the Organization for European Economic Cooperation, issued in October 1948, summarized progress of the organization so far and the problems which it still faced. Stating that the organization was still on the threshold of European cooperation and that the most difficult problems still remained, the report defined OEEC's task as the achievement, by 1952, of a “satisfactory European economy without extraordinary outside aid.” The work of OEEC since its inception had been hampered by the facts that it was the first international organization of its kind, that it had been so quickly forced into programming aid requirements of participating countries that there had been no time for organizational problems, and that during a fairly long initial period it had not had close contact with the United States Economic Cooperation Administration since neither the administrator nor his special representative in Europe had been appointed. Despite these hindrances, however, OEEC had drawn up programs covering aid requirements of the nineteen member nations for the third and fourth quarters of 1948, the first annual program, a long-term program, and a first progress report on cooperation and economic recovery. OEEC had also undertaken to recommend to ECA actual distribution of aid between participating countries, a task which it was originally assumed would belong to ECA.

Seasonal Variations in the Characteristics of Vivax Malaria 1

Summary The observations recorded indicate that inoculations made with P. vivax during the first or winter quarter result in a lower proportion of takes. It would also appear that the successful inoculations present longer incubation periods, have shorter clinical courses, and, if renewed clinical activity is experienced, are likely to be confined to a period of eight weeks following cessation of the primary attack. Inoculations made during the second, third, and fourth quarters present a marked contrast in all these characteristics. This contrast is most evident in the case of the third or summer quarter, in which have been secured the largest proportion of successful inoculations and in which the incubation periods are shortest, the clinical attacks the longest, and the likelihood of renewed activity twenty-four weeks after cessation of the primary attack appears greatest.

Review of the Year 1932

THE downward course of general business in the United States continued, with two moderate interruptions, during I932. Although the total decline for the year was large, it was somewhat smaller than that of I93I; and the average rate of decline was much slackened after the first quarter. Of the two interruptions to the decline, that of April was cut short by the second gold panic, and that of December occurred under conditions more generally favorable to sustained recovery (Chart i, p. 9). Whereas in I93I the dominant factor in renewing and prolonging the decline of business had been the world financial crisis, the critical influences during I932 were mainly domestic and centered about the second-quarter crisis in the federal budget. This crisis was accompanied by a second drive upon our gold standard, an episode following so closely upon the gold panic of September-October I93I that certain effects of the two episodes upon our credit and financial situations were all but continuous. The year was marked by steady and rapid decline in short term money rates; and the aggregate reduction for the year was greater than in the calendar year I930, though not as great as for the I2-months period ending in September I930. Even during the gold panic of the second quarter money rates fell, in response to the energetic easy money policy of the federal reserve system. With the passing of the second gold crisis, credit conditions improved; and the third and fourth quarters witnessed a vigorous upturn of member bank deposits, while loans were still declining. Many credit difficulties remain unsolved, but readjustment in bank credit has gone far and provides a basis for revival of business borrowing. Average wholesale commodity prices declined further during the year, but the total drop was only about half that suffered in I93I. Although the course of prices was downward as the year closed, there had been an important gain after the end of the gold panic. Hence the December figure was only moderately below that for June, and the last half of the year as a whole gave emphatic evidence of a slackening in the long slump of prices. In security prices the final half year was even more favorable: after the May-June panic had forced both bonds and stocks to extremely low levels, brisk recoveries occurred in the third quarter, and only moderate changes took place thereafter. Average prices of both bonds and stocks closed the year not greatly changed from the levels of January. In security markets, I932 brought striking evidence of a turn for the better.