Fossil Sources Research Articles

Carbon capture and utilization: More than hiding CO2 for some time

Carbon capture and utilization: More than hiding CO2 for some time

Numerical 3D Model of a Novel Photoelectrolysis Tandem Cell with Solid Electrolyte for Green Hydrogen Production

The only strategy for reducing fossil fuel-based energy sources is to increase the use of sustainable ones. Among renewable energy sources, solar energy can significantly contribute to a sustainable energy future, but its discontinuous nature requires a large storage capacity. Due to its ability to be produced from primary energy sources and transformed, without greenhouse gas emissions, into mechanical, thermal, and electrical energy, emitting only water as a by-product, hydrogen is an effective carrier and means of energy storage. Technologies for hydrogen production from methane, methanol, hydrocarbons, and water electrolysis using non-renewable electrical power generate CO2. Conversely, employing photoelectrochemistry to harvest hydrogen is a sustainable technique for sunlight-direct energy storage. Research on photoelectrolysis is addressed to materials, prototypes, and simulation studies. From the latter point of view, models have mainly been implemented for aqueous-electrolyte cells, with only one semiconductor-based electrode and a metal-based counter electrode. In this study, a novel cell architecture was numerically modelled. A numerical model of a tandem cell with anode and cathode based on metal oxide semiconductors and a polymeric membrane as an electrolyte was implemented and investigated. Numerical results of 11% solar to hydrogen conversion demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed novel concept.

Black carbon aerosols over Indian Ocean have unique source fingerprint and optical characteristics during monsoon season

Effects of aerosols such as black carbon (BC) on climate and buildup of the monsoon over the Indian Ocean are insufficiently quantified. Uncertain contributions from various natural and anthropogenic sources impede our understanding. Here, we use observations over 5 y of BC and its isotopes at a remote island observatory in northern Indian Ocean to constrain loadings and sources during little-studied monsoon season. Carbon-14 data show a highly variable yet largely fossil (65 ± 15%) source mixture. Combining carbon-14 with carbon-13 reveals the impact of African savanna burning, which occasionally approach 50% (48 ± 9%) of the total BC loadings. The BC mass-absorption cross-section for this regime is 7.6 ± 2.6 m2/g, with higher values during savanna fire input. Taken together, the combustion sources, longevity, and optical properties of BC aerosols over summertime Indian Ocean are different than the more-studied winter aerosol, with implications for chemical transport and climate model simulations of the Indian monsoon.

Current Implementation and Development Countermeasures of Green Energy in China’s Highway Transportation

The transportation industry is one of the largest consumers of fossil fuels and sources of carbon dioxide emission, with highway transportation accounting for more than 70% of the total. In order to promote efficient, clean, diversified, and intelligent use of energy, this study proposes an innovative application technology model for integrating highway transportation and energy to improve the utilization of clean energy and reduce the proportion of fossil energy and carbon emissions in highway transportation. This study addresses the current problems of green energy development in China’s highways, and combines green low-carbon development policies in international transportation with inspirations based on experience. Based on the principles of safety, efficiency, environmental friendliness, wisdom, and economy, this study systematically analyzes the current situation of green energy application in China’s highway transportation. It proposes one core objective, two major roles, and five major security systems of development measures for green energy application China’s highway transportation with the aim of promoting the transformation and upgrade of China’s highway transportation industry. This study can also help to achieve green and low-carbon development of highway transportation and provides a decision-making reference for the ecological civilization construction goals of the industry.

Investigation of Carbon Footprints of Three Desalination Technologies: Reverse Osmosis (RO), Multi-Stage Flash Distillation (MSF) and Multi-Effect Distillation (MED)

Nowadays, the drinking water shortage is increasing, mainly due to rapid population growth, climate change, wasteful overuse of water, and pollution. Under the current circumstances, a quarter of the world's population will not have access to good quality drinking water. Thus, another solution must be adopted in areas with insufficient freshwater. One possible line is the desalination of seawater, one of the most practical solutions to solve the problem of drinking water shortage along the oil availability shore and continues to expand globally. Water produced may also be utilized for irrigation, reducing a region's reliance on imports, contributing to the local economy, and improving food supplies. However, this process is not a consequences-free procedure; it may cause several environmental and human health problems.The three most applied desalination technologies are reverse osmosis (RO), multi-stage flash distillation (MSF), and multi-effect distillation (MED). In this study, the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) of drinking water produced from seawater using these three technologies with fossil and renewable energy sources were investigated based on two methods: life cycle assessment (LCA) using SimaPro life cycle analysis software and carbon footprints. As a result, RO technology has significantly lower CO2 emissions than thermal technologies. The RO combined renewable energy is the most environmentally friendly; provides outstanding benefits in terms of human health and ecosystem quality. This technology may still evolve in the future to produce longer-lasting, cheaper membranes, and the energy requirements of this process are lower with applying modern energy recovery systems.

High temperature interactions between K-rich biomass ash and MgO-based refractories

MgO-based refractories are used in lime kilns to withstand the high temperature and chemical environment. Efforts to reduce CO2 emissions have led to an increased interest to use bio-based fuels as alternatives to traditional fossil sources. The potential for refractory corrosion from a potassium-rich biomass ash was investigated by studying the infiltration of olive pomace ash into magnesia/spinel refractories. Refractory samples were exposed to the ash at up to 1400 °C for 15–60 min in a CO2–rich atmosphere. Molten ash infiltrated the refractories through pores and grain boundaries to a depth of up to 9.6 mm, which was quantified with a new systematic procedure. The phase KAlO2 was identified inside the refractories after exposure, indicating an attack of spinel components by potassium. Phases found in the ash residues also indicated the migration of refractory constituents. Thermochemical equilibrium calculations were also used to investigate the ash/refractory chemistry.

Processing renewable and waste-based feedstocks with fluid catalytic cracking: Impact on catalytic performance and considerations for improved catalyst design.

Refiners around the globe are either considering or are actively replacing a portion of their crude oil inputs originating from fossil sources with alternative sources, including recycled materials (plastics, urban waste, mixed solid waste) and renewable materials (bio-mass waste, vegetable oils). In this paper, we explore such replacement, specifically focusing on the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) operation. Five pyrolysis oils, obtained from municipal solid waste (MSW) and biogenic material (olive stones/pits), were fully characterized and tested at 10% loading against a standard fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) vacuum gasoil (VGO) feed in a bench scale reactor using an industrially available fluid catalytic cracking catalyst based on ultrastable Y zeolite to simulate fluid catalytic cracking co-processing. Despite having unique feed properties, including high Conradson carbon (e.g., up to 19.41wt%), water (e.g., up to 5.7wt%), and contaminants (e.g., up to 227ppm Cl) in some cases, the five pyrolysis oils gave similar yield patterns as vacuum gasoil. Gasoline was slightly (ca. 1wt%) higher in all cases and LPG slightly (ca. 1wt%) lower. Olefinicity in the LPG streams were unchanged, bottoms and light cycle oil (LCO) showed no significant changes, while dry gas was slightly (up to -0.2wt%) lower. Coke selectivity was also unchanged (maximum -7.7wt%, relatively), suggesting minimal to no heat balance concerns when co-processing in an industrial fluid catalytic cracking unit. The results demonstrate the applicability of municipal solid waste and biogenic originating pyrolysis oils into a refinery. A catalyst design concept is explored, based on higher rare Earth oxide exchange and/or utilization of ZSM-5 zeolite, that would further minimize the impacts of replacing fossil oils with pyrolysis oils, namely one that shifts the 1% higher gasoline into LPG.

Power-to-Gas: The role of chemical storage in an energy system with high shares of renewable energy

The conversion of the energy supply to renewable sources (wind, photovoltaics) will increase the volatility in electricity generation in the future. In order to ensure a balanced power balance in the power grid, storage is required - not only for a short time, but also seasonally. The bidirectional coupling of existing energy infrastructure with the power grid can help here by using the electricity in electrolysis systems to produce hydrogen. The hydrogen can be mixed with natural gas in the existing infrastructure (gas storage, pipelines) to a limited extent or converted directly to methane in a gas-catalytic reaction, methanation, with carbon dioxide and/or carbon monoxide. By using the natural gas infrastructure, the electricity grids are relieved and renewable energies can also be stored over long periods of time. Another advantage of this technology, known as “Power-to-Gas”, is that the methane produced in this way represents a sink for CO2 emissions, as it replaces fossil sources and CO2 is thus fed into a closed cycle.Research in the field of Power-to-Gas technology is currently addressing technological advances both in the field of electrolysis and for the subsequent methanation, in particular to reduce investment costs. In the field of methanation, load-flexible processes are to be developed that are adapted to the fluctuating supply of hydrogen. The profitability of the Power-to-Gas process chain can be increased through synergistic integration into existing industrial processes. For example, an integrated smelting works offers a promising infrastructural environment, since, on the one hand, process gases containing carbon are produced in large quantities and, on the other hand, the oxygen as a by-product from the water electrolysis can be used directly. Such concepts suggest an economic application of Power-to-Gas technology in the near future.

Time Series Analysis of Fossil Fuels Consumption in Slovakia by Arima Model

Abstract According to the Green Deal, the carbon neutrality of the European Union (EU) should be reached partly by the transition from fossil fuels to alternative renewable sources. However, fossil fuels still play an essential role in energy production, and are widely used in the world with no alternative to be completely replaced with, so far. In recent years, we have observed the rapidly growing prices of commodities such as oil or gas. The analysis of past fossil fuels consumption might contribute significantly to the responsible formulation of the energy policy of each country, reflected in policies of related organisations and the industrial sector. Over the years, a number of papers have been published on modelling production and consumption of fossil and renewable energy sources on the level of national economics, industrial sectors and households, exploiting and comparing a variety of approaches. In this paper, we model the consumption of fossil fuels (gas and coal) in Slovakia based on the annual data during the years 1965–2020. To our knowledge, no such model, which analyses historical data and provides forecasts for future consumption of gas and coal, respectively, in Slovakia, is currently available in the literature. For building the model, we have used the Box–Jenkins methodology. Because of the presence of trend in the data, we have considered the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA (p,d,q)) model. By fitting models with various combinations of parameters p, d, q, the best fitting model has been chosen based on the value of Akaike’s information criterion. According to this, the model for coal consumption is ARIMA(0, 2, 1) and for gas consumption it is ARIMA(2, 2, 2).

Climate change impacts of e-fuels for aviation in Europe under present-day conditions and future policy scenarios

‘E-fuels’ or ‘synthetic fuels’ are hydrocarbon fuels synthesized from hydrogen (H2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), where H2 can be produced via electrolysis of water or steam reforming of natural gas, and CO2 is captured from the combustion of a fossil or biogenic source or directly from the atmosphere. E-fuels are drop-in substitutes for fossil fuels, but their climate change mitigation benefits are largely unclear. This study evaluates the climate change impacts of e-fuels for aviation by combining different sources of CO2 and H2 up to 2050 under two contrasting policy scenarios. The analysis includes different climate metrics and the effects of near-term climate forcers, which are particularly relevant for the aviation sector. Results are produced for European average conditions and for Poland and Norway, two countries with high and low emission intensity from their electricity production mix. E-fuels can either have higher or lower climate change impacts than fossil fuels, depending on multiple factors such as, in order of importance, the electricity mix, the origin of CO2, the technology for H2 production, and the electrolyzer efficiency. The climate benefits are generally higher for e-fuels produced from CO2 of biogenic origin, while e-fuels produced from CO2 from direct air capture or fossil fuel combustion require countries with clean electricity to outperform fossil fuels. Synthetic fuels produced from H2 derived from natural gas have higher impacts than fossil fuels even when coupled with carbon capture and storage, if CO2 is sourced from fossil fuels or the atmosphere. Climate change impacts of e-fuels improve in the future, and they can all achieve considerable climate change mitigation in 2050relative to fossil jet fuel, provided that strict climate policy measures are implemented to decarbonize the electricity sector. Under reduced policy efforts, future climate impacts in 2050 of e-fuels from atmospheric or fossil CO2 are still higher than those of fossil jet fuels with an average European electricity mix. This study shows the conditions to maximize the climate change mitigation benefits of e-fuels, which essentially depend on progressive decarbonization of the electricity sector and on reduced use of CO2 sourced from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy sources impact on economic growth: international practices

Energy is an indispensable source of power for economic development. Mainstream research has concluded that energy can be divided into two types: renewable and non-renewable. Research analyzing the impact of non-renewable energy on economic development is very comprehensive. Researchers dispute the association between expanding the usage of renewable energy sources and stimulating the economy. They investigated the connection between economic growth and energy use in developing countries. The paper assesses the impact of the energy transition to renewable energy sources driving the economic growth of countries. It has been established that positive transformations in economies can be seen both developed and emerging economies. It has been proved that economic growth, once the national energy becomes autonomous (examples of Iceland, Uruguay), ensures the economy protection from external fluctuations in energy prices and guarantees electricity generation at prices lower than those set for the energy produced from fossil sources. The paper shows that freedom from additional financial burden for businesses is a critical precondition for the stable development of the economy during the energy transition period. It is indicated in the paper that if the state cannot carry out such a transition on its own, there are good reasons to engage large businesses and other participants in this process on favourable contractual terms. It has been found that such actions will promote increased investments in the development of renewable power generation in the country. The paper studies the main opportunities for economic growth resulting from the energy transition, including price advantages for power generation (prices for electricity produced using alternative sources are cheaper than those for electricity produced from fossil sources), driving the entrepreneurial activity, as well as the possibility of exporting energy produced from renewable source. The scientific novelty of our research is in the development of the question of the energy impact transition on the economic growth of countries with different financial, economic and energy potential, through the establishment of specific characteristics of this process, which can contribute to the modeling of its implementation at the level of other states, including Ukraine.

Taxonomy of Chinas’s “Green” Economy

The article is devoted to the study of the peculiarities of the development of the energy system of modern China. The analysis of the main directions of the formation of the system of renewable energy sources in the country is carried out, the current regulatory and legal acts regulating the direction of development in the field of energy are considered. In the PRC, under the current conditions, preference is given to economic growth and ensuring energy security due to a moderate increase in generating capacity from fossil sources using modern available technologies to minimize damage from their use, while simultaneously increasing renewable energy sources (RES). One of the main reasons for increasing renewable energy in China is strategic in nature: by increasing the share of renewable sources in its energy balance for electricity consumption, China can reduce geopolitical tensions, making the country less dependent on unstable regions in terms of energy security. The energy market, dependent on fossil fuels, depends on ensuring the safety of oil and gas transportation routes, but one of the main reasons why the Chinese government is promoting renewable energy is to reduce air pollution. The NPC Environmental Protection Committee has repeatedly noted that the production and consumption of fossil fuel energy is responsible for 90% of sulfur dioxide emissions in the country and that for this reason, 7 of the 10 most polluted cities in the world are located in China. The country is working on the reconstruction and modernization of production facilities in order to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions, technologies for carbon capture, use and storage are being developed. Currently, the country is implementing a very important transition from control over the total volume of energy consumption and the energy intensity of GDP to a new “double control” — control over the total amount of carbon emissions and the intensity of emissions.

The Impact of New Energy Technologies on the Level of Energy Justice

The modern concept of energy transition implies following a matrix in which the key elements are decarbonization, digitalization, decentralization and democratization of the energy sector. At the same time, the aspiration is to carry out the entire process in a fair way, taking care of the balance of the energy trilemma. Bearing in mind the requirements set in this way, it is clear that they can hardly be achieved using only conventional energy technologies, regardless of whether they are based on the use of fossil or renewable energy sources. This is the reason why new energy technologies are being developed quickly, which should make it easier to achieve the objectives. However, not all new energy technologies have the same impact on improving the level of energy justice in society; some of them may even cause the opposite of the desired effects. The paper analyzes small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) and large battery systems for energy storage (BESS). These two types of technologies were selected due to their near mass application in energy systems. Also, the strong influence of various lobby groups that strive to impose these solutions as mandatory elements of modern energy systems is noticeable. The aim of the research is to assess the impact that these two technologies could have on society, but also on the geopolitical position of the country where they are implemented. One of the key criteria for the analysis was the effect of applied energy solutions on complex forms of social and organizational technologies (eg impact on the development of educational infrastructure).

Comparative Study of Hybrid Solar Photovoltaic - Diesel Power Supply System

In an environment with unstable power supply, incessant load shedding and inconsistent energy availability remains a major challenge. Hence, there is a need for an urgent alternative source of energy to mitigate this challenge. Over the years, fossil fuel-based energy sources have been considered as an effective solution, however the greenhouse gases emissions from these sources contribute largely to the rise in the depletion of the ozone layer which eventually leads to pollution and global warming. This work contributes to efforts in curbing this menace by reducing the use of diesel generators and focus more on a hybrid renewable energy system. This study, used selected residential buildings as a case study. A photovoltaic system and a diesel generator were incorporated as hybrid energy system, and the data gathered was processed using the HOMER software. The output of the simulation provided two optimal systems (PV-Diesel Generator, Battery coupled with the complete Hybrid system) and (PV- Diesel generator). The optimal and cost-effective system from the analysis is the PV-diesel hybrid system. This consists of a 10kW solar PV, 45kW Diesel generator, a 10kW converter and six 6FM200D batteries. This study provides a synergy of individual subsystems as analyzed in the result to enhanced the reliability of the system.

PV panels as a renewable energy source for residential building – An economical comparison before and during the energy crisis

The application of renewable energy sources is a current trend today due to the limited sources of fossil. A substantial part of these energy sources is solar radiation. The development of electricity prices was significantly affected by two global crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The essence of the article is to compare the economic sense and appropriateness of investing in a photovoltaic power plant system and its return over time, considering the prediction of the development of electricity prices between 2020 and 2023 and subsequently also with a 15-year price prediction. The article deals with investment, energy consumption and financial evaluation of a PV system with PV panels installed on the ventilated façade of a residential building in the Czech Republic. The conclusions of the article show that the increase in investment in the PV panels themselves between 2020 and 2023 is a crucial factor for the return of the entire system. Predictive models of the development of electricity prices and associated liquidity of the investment also play a significant role in this issue.

Do sustainability criteria affect the valuation of companies? Evidence from an oil giant

Nowadays we see how many media, governments and international organizations are echoing the serious consequences of climate change on our planet. A report recently published by the United Nations Climate Change Organization (UN Climate Change News, 2022) reiterated that the practices currently being carried out by governments are not sufficient to keep the temperature increase to 1.5ºC compared to the pre-industrial era. Moreover, it predicts that if we continue with business as usual, the increase will be 2.5ºC by the end of the century. One of the solutions to this problem is the energy transition, understood as a paradigm shift in which the system gradually stops relying on fossil and non-renewable energy sources, to make way for the exploitation, use and consumption of alternative energy sources that will reduce CO2 emissions and improve waste and water management, among many other advantages (Edenhofer et al. 2012). According to the latest report published by the British oil company BP (BP Statistical Review, 2022), 55% of the energy consumed by The Earth in 2021 will come from oil and gas, compared to 7% from renewable energies. Keywords: O&G sector | DCF Method | Sustainable criteria | Investment | VDA approach

IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF USING WATER RADIANT HEATING SYSTEMS

Now, the issue of protecting the environment and reducing the use of fossil non-renewable energy sources is becoming increasingly important. For modern heating and air conditioning systems, it is imperative to reduce emissions of harmful substances, especially CO2. This can be realized by significantly reducing the use of fossil non-renewable fuels and reconstructing engineering systems to the current level of energy saving. The annual growth in demand for fossil fuels will be reduced through the optimization of substations and heat distribution devices, which is a necessary step for the development of the country's industry and economy. Therefore, today the main task is to increase the energy efficiency of the use of resources and increase the potential of alternative types of energy in combination with modern low-temperature energy-efficient heat distribution systems, one of which is radiant water panels. The advantages of radiant heating are the absence of dust transfer, since the convective process of mixing air masses is remote, does not require the connection of electrical power, it is possible to work with low-temperature sources of heat supply, no maintenance is required, since there are no fans, electric motors, bearings, lubricants, filters, etc. The main advantage can be distinguished from the use of additional equipment for destratification, as there is no overheating of the upper zones of the heated building. The article presents the results of improving the method of mounting beam-ceiling fixtures with respect to their orientation in space. The results of numerical calculations indicate the efficiency of mounting the equipment at an angle of 45 degrees, which increases the efficiency by 10 % in relation to the 0° orientation. By achieving this mounting and installation option, the required capacity of the heat supply source is reduced and the amount of energy resources used is reduced.

Using 14C of tree rings to study CO2 emissions from fossil sources at the sampling point of the Meteorological Tower in Beijing

Atmospheric fossil fuel CO2 information is an important reference for local government to formulate energy-saving and emission reduction in Beijing. We present a reconstruction of the fossil fuel CO2 mole fraction from 2007 to 2014 near the Beijing meteorological tower using AMS to measure 14C of cedar tree rings. The results show that the mole fraction of fossil fuel CO2 at the sampling point first decreased from 22.3 ± 0.7 ppm (2007) to 21.0 ± 0.9 ppm (2008), then increased to 22.5 ± 0.9 ppm (2010), and finally decreased to 18.7 ± 0.7 ppm (2014). This trend correlates (r = 0.958, p < 0.01) well with one third (May-August) of fossil source consumption of secondary industry in Beijing during 2007–2014. It is attributed to environmental policy programs and control measures at local scope in Beijing during 2007–2014. This study suggests that 14C measurements of tree rings by AMS provide an effective method to evaluate the effect of the environmental policies.

A New Voltage-Multiplier-Based Power Converter Configuration Suitable for Renewable Energy Sources and Sustainability Applications

The sustainability of new-generation energy sources has become one of the most critical challenges in recent years as renewable energy sources (RESs) rapidly replace old fossil sources. Integration between RESs and the grid should be completed through power electronics converters and optimized control techniques. RESs have many advantages, such as having increased reliability and sustainability, being environmentally friendly, and having cheaper maintenance costs and more reasonable energy prices. Photovoltaic (PV) panels are among the most popular RESs. A PV array’s generated voltage level is unsuitable for direct load or grid connection and has to be enhanced via a DC-DC boost converter. After that, an inverter should be used to change the generated DC voltage to AC voltage for the grid or loads. In order to reach higher voltage gains, different structures have been proposed in the literature, such as cascaded converters, non-isolated converters (including transformers), and positive- and negative-voltage-lift Luo converters. These converters have some disadvantages, such as including a large number of semiconductor devices and inductors, heavy and bulky structures, and the need for intermediate converters to convert DC to AC voltage and vice versa. Besides the efficiency and high DC voltage gain feature, to achieve more reliability and sustainability and a longer lifetime of the PV source, the current drawn from these sources should be as ripple-free as possible. This study considers all these details by presenting a novel DC-DC power boost converter. The steady-state analysis, simulation, and test results are presented. The most important features of the proposed converter include the lack of need for a transformer, intermediate inverter, rectifier converters, and bulky and heavy components, while still ensuring that high voltage gains and high efficiencies are possible. Simulation results showed that for duty ratios from D = 0.05 to D = 0.15 for the switch S3, the gain of the converter was 22, 35, and 70 times greater than the input voltage, respectively. The desired 200 VDC and 400 VDC voltages for the output nodes were obtained using 12 VDC as the input voltage with and without the switched-capacitor cell, respectively. A limited number of the voltages between −47 and 12 V dropped across the inductors, and a reversed voltage from −12 to −48 V was reported for the power diodes. Additionally, an efficiency close to 96.88% was obtained for the proposed converter. According to the experimental results, a voltage close to 198 VDC was obtained with a 12 VDC input voltage source without using the switched-capacitor cell. A current with a maximum of 7 A was reported for the output diode, and more than 96% efficiency was reported. The results showed that the primary source of the power losses was the semiconductors, and the switching losses made up around 69% and 88% of the total losses for the switches and diodes, respectively. The present topology has three power switches. Two of the switches are activated and deactivated simultaneously. The third switch is activated or deactivated in reverse with the other switches. The results showed that for short-duty ratios such as 0.5 for switches S1 and S2 and 0.35 for switch S3, DC voltage gains close to 35 were obtained theoretically. The generated voltage could be doubled by applying fourth and fifth power switches by making a switched-capacitor-based topology. All of these details are illustrated in this study in detail. The proposed circuit was set up and tested in a laboratory environment. The test results confirm the simulation and theoretical analysis.

Pathways to reduce Indonesia’s dependence on oil and achieve longer-term decarbonization

Key challenges for Indonesia to 2050 are to reduce its dependency on fossil-based fuels and to decarbonize its energy system. This article adopts a systems approach to investigate future pathways, positing a shift from oil combustion to electricity to energize cooking stoves and vehicles. Today, electricity is predominantly generated using gas and coal. The cost-competitiveness of renewables is central to any sectoral adjustment in the nation's total primary energy supply (TPES). To study variables within the energy system, causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are constructed acknowledging three underlying elements: constraints (the energy trilemma); resource availability, oriented to physical elements and human resources (stakeholders); and the mode of regulation. Indonesia's energy market is characterized by state enterprise and price subsidies to retail consumers. We analyze the capability of private companies to drive competition among providers of renewable energy and facilitate more competitive pricing. Our results suggest that, irrespective of the composition of the TPES over the next 30 years, fossil sources will remain significant, necessitating carbon capture storage (CCS) technology as a complement to renewable energy promotion.