Forward Rate Research Articles

Multiple Behavioral Conditions of the Forward Exchange Rates and Stock Market Return in the South Asian Stock Markets During COVID-19: A Novel MT-QARDL Approach

This study examines the short- and long-term effects of multiple quantiles of forward exchange rate premiums (FERPs) and COVID-19 cases on the quantiles of stock market returns (SMRs). We extend the Quantile Autoregressive Distributive Lag (QARDL) model, and the Multiple Threshold Non-linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) model propose a new Multiple Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Distributive Lag (MT-QARDL) approach. Unlike MT-NARDL, QARDL, and NARDL, the MT-QARDL model, which integrates the MT-NARDL model and the quantile regression methodology, captures both short- and long-term locational and sign-based asymmetries. For instance, at lower quantiles for Indian and Sri Lankan SMRs, bearish FERP exerts a positive influence, while bullish FERP has a negative effect during COVID-19. Conversely, bullish FERP negatively affects lower quantiles of SMRs of Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, whereas bearish FERP either yields an opposite effect or remain statistically insignificant during COVID-19. The findings underscore long-term sign-based asymmetries due to the differential bearish and bullish FERP impact during COVID-19. However, in the long term, location-based asymmetries also existed as bullish FERP negative influence the SMRs of India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka at higher quantiles but SMRs at lower quantiles insignificantly respond to the bullish FERP fluctuations during COVID-19.

On the rate of aneuploidy reversion in a wild yeast model.

Aneuploidy, arising from gain or loss of chromosomes due to nondisjunction, is a special class of mutation. It can create significant phenotypic changes by altering abundance of hundreds of genes in a single event, providing material for adaptive evolution. But it can also incur large fitness costs relative to other types of mutations. Understanding mutational dynamics of aneuploidy is important for modeling its impact in nature, but aneuploidy rates are difficult to measure accurately. One challenge is that aneuploid karyotypes may revert back to euploidy, biasing forward mutation rate estimates - yet the rate of aneuploidy reversion is largely uncharacterized. Furthermore, current rate estimates are confounded because fitness differences between euploids and aneuploids are typically not accounted for in rate calculations. We developed a unique fluctuation assay in a wild-yeast model to measure the rate of extra-chromosome loss across three aneuploid chromosomes, while accounting for fitness differences between aneuploid and euploid cells. We show that incorporating fitness effects is essential to obtain accurate estimates of aneuploidy rates. Furthermore, the rate of extra-chromosome loss, separate from karyotype fitness differences, varies across chromosomes. We also measured rates in a strain lacking RNA-binding protein Ssd1, important for aneuploidy tolerance and implicated in chromosome segregation. We found no role for Ssd1 in the loss of native aneuploid chromosomes, although it did impact an engineered chromosome XV with a perturbed centromeric sequence. We discuss the impacts and challenges of modeling aneuploidy dynamics in real world situations.

Key determinants of the dual clamp/activator function of Complexin

Complexin determines magnitude and kinetics of synchronized secretion, but the underlying molecular mechanisms remained unclear. Here, we show that the hydrophobic face of the amphipathic helix at the C-terminus of Complexin II (CpxII, amino acids 115–134) binds to fusion-promoting SNARE proteins, prevents premature secretion, and allows vesicles to accumulate in a release-ready state in mouse chromaffin cells. Specifically, we demonstrate that an unrelated amphipathic helix functionally substitutes for the C-terminal domain (CTD) of CpxII and that amino acid substitutions on the hydrophobic side compromise the arrest of the pre-fusion intermediate. To facilitate synchronous vesicle fusion, the N-terminal domain (NTD) of CpxII (amino acids 1–27) specifically cooperates with synaptotagmin I (SytI), but not with synaptotagmin VII. Expression of CpxII rescues the slow release kinetics of the Ca2+-binding mutant Syt I R233Q, whereas the N-terminally truncated variant of CpxII further delays it. These results indicate that the CpxII NTD regulates mechanisms which are governed by the forward rate of Ca2+ binding to Syt I. Overall, our results shed new light on key molecular properties of CpxII that hinder premature exocytosis and accelerate synchronous exocytosis.

Key determinants of the dual clamp/activator function of Complexin.

Complexin determines magnitude and kinetics of synchronized secretion, but the underlying molecular mechanisms remained unclear. Here, we show that the hydrophobic face of the amphipathic helix at the C-terminus of Complexin II (CpxII, amino acids 115-134) binds to fusion-promoting SNARE proteins, prevents premature secretion, and allows vesicles to accumulate in a release-ready state in mouse chromaffin cells. Specifically, we demonstrate that an unrelated amphipathic helix functionally substitutes for the C-terminal domain (CTD) of CpxII and that amino acid substitutions on the hydrophobic side compromise the arrest of the pre-fusion intermediate. To facilitate synchronous vesicle fusion, the N-terminal domain (NTD) of CpxII (amino acids 1-27) specifically cooperates with synaptotagmin I (SytI), but not with synaptotagmin VII. Expression of CpxII rescues the slow release kinetics of the Ca2+-binding mutant Syt I R233Q, whereas the N-terminally truncated variant of CpxII further delays it. These results indicate that the CpxII NTD regulates mechanisms which are governed by the forward rate of Ca2+ binding to Syt I. Overall, our results shed new light on key molecular properties of CpxII that hinder premature exocytosis and accelerate synchronous exocytosis.

2-O-α-D-glucosyl glycerol production by whole-cell biocatalyst of lactobacilli encapsulating sucrose phosphorylase with improved glycerol affinity and conversion rate

Background2-O-α-D-glucosyl glycerol (2-αGG) is a valuable ingredient in cosmetics, health-care and food fields. Sucrose phosphorylase (SPase) is a favorable choice for biosynthesis of 2-αGG, while its glucosyl-acceptor affinity and thermodynamic feature remain largely unknown, limiting 2-αGG manufacturing.ResultsHere, three SPases were obtained from lactobacilli and bifidobacteria, and the one encoded by Lb. reuteri SDMCC050455 (LrSP) had the best transglucosylation ability, with 2-αGG accounting for 86.01% in the total product. However, the LrSP exhibited an initial forward reaction rate of 11.83/s and reached equilibrium of 56.90% at 110 h, indicating low glycerol affinity and conversion rate. To improve catalytic efficiency, the LrSP was overexpressed in Lb. paracasei BL-SP, of which the intracellular SPase activity increased by 6.67-fold compared with Lb. reuteri SDMCC050455. After chemically permeabilized with Triton X-100, the whole-cell biocatalysis of Lb. paracasei BL-SP was prepared and showed the highest activity, with the initial forward reaction rate improved to 50.17/s and conversion rate risen to 80.79% within 17 h. Using the whole-cell biocatalyst, the final yield of 2-αGG was 203.21 g/L from 1 M sucrose and 1 M glycerol.ConclusionThe food grade strain Lb. paracasei was used for the first time as cell factory to recombinantly express the LrSP and construct a whole-cell biocatalyst for the production of 2-αGG. After condition optimization and cell permeabilization, the whole-cell biocatalyst exhibited 23.89% higher equilibrium conversion and 9.10-fold of productivity compared with the pure enzyme catalytic system. This work would provide a reference for large-scale bioprocess of 2-αGG.

FITTING DYNAMICALLY CONSISTENT FORWARD RATE CURVES: ALGORITHM AND COMPARISON

This paper introduces a new methodology for estimating dynamically consistent forward rate curves, which are essential for obtaining arbitrage-free valuation and risk management models. Using U.S. Treasury data from January 2013 to June 2023, we fit dynamically consistent forward rates curves and test the goodness of fit between theoretical and observed prices. We compare the traditional static forward rate curve parameterizations (including Nelson–Siegel, Svensson, and cubic splines) with our new dynamically consistent methodology. The dynamically consistent forward rate curve estimates generally outperform the traditional static methods in reproducing market prices.

The impact of external shocks on volatility persistence and market efficiency of the foreign exchange rate regime: evidence from Malawi

This study examines the nexus between external shocks and micro-transmission aspects of volatility persistence and market efficiency for the Malawian Foreign exchange market. Garch-type models are employed on monthly data stretching back to June 2011 through to October 2021. Results of the study show the presence of two structural breaks for the volatility series and one structural break for the return series that fall within the rolling window for external shock associated with the Russia-Ukrainian war. The negative nature of the shock leads to a significant additive impact on volatility persistence, asymmetry, and threshold at different levels of significance in the three models of Garch, E-Garch and T-Garch respectively. Relaxing the models confirms the presence of domestic influence. However, the external influence remains significant especially for the negative shock. As such, the leverage and volatility feedback effects of external shocks are corroborated. Augmenting the approach with a FRUH analysis reveals that the foreign exchange market does not follow a random walk as it departs from the 1:1 relationship between the spot and forward rate thus being weak-form inefficient.

The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

Abstract We propose the currency hedging channel that connects countries’ external imbalances to their exchange rate behavior. We present a model in which investors increase their currency hedging during periods of financial distress in proportion to their net foreign asset exposure. This behavior coupled with constrained financial intermediation explains observed relationships between gradually adjusting external imbalances and volatile spot and forward exchange rates. We find empirical support for the hedging channel in both the conditional and unconditional moments of exchange rates, option prices, and countries’ uses of Federal Reserve swap lines. (JEL E44, F31, F32, F41, G11, G15)

Comparative Analysis Of Calculation Of Expedition Services Using Full Costing And Variable Costing Methods (Case Study at PT. Pulau Indah Maju Palembang)

This research has purpose to know how the calculation of tariffs for public goods transportation services with the company method and compared with full costing and variable costing approaches at PT. Pulau Indah Maju Palembang. This research was conducted using a comparative descriptive analysis technique that compares 3 methods in calculating freight forwarding rates, namely the company method, the full costing method, and the variable costing method. The data collection method used to obtain data and information that supports and complements each other regarding the calculation of freight forwarding rates is an interview with the main director of PT. Pulau Indah Maju, Observations, and documentation. The results of the research are for colt diesel trucks, the company's method is more profitable than the full costing and variable costing approach, for the ankle truck the company's method is more profitable than the full costing and variable costing approach, and for tronton trucks, the variable costing approach is more profitable than the company's method and the full costing approach. From the data analysis that has been carried out, the following conclusions can be drawn: there is no significant difference in the steps for determining the rate of delivery of goods. The absence of such a difference lies in the basis for determining tariffs.

Foreign Exchange Risk Analysis and The Futures Hedging Strategy Construction--- The Case Study of Amazon

This paper explores the foreign exchange risk encountered by Amazon.com Inc. and proposes corresponding futures hedging strategies. With global market uncertainties, foreign exchange risk significantly impacts the financial performance of multinational companies like Amazon. The paper analyzes Amazon's foreign exchange risk factors, highlighting that the primary risks stem from international business revenues and holdings of foreign currency cash equivalents and marketable securities. Based on these risk factors, the study proposes several potential hedging strategies, including forward market hedging, futures hedging, and exchange rate options hedging. Forward market hedging mitigates risk by agreeing to exchange currencies at a predetermined rate in the future; futures hedging avoids counterparty default risk through standardized contracts; and exchange rate options hedging offers flexibility by allowing the exercise to be abandoned if the exchange rate moves favorably. The paper further develops a specific futures hedging strategy based on several key assumptions, including efficient market hypothesis, zero transaction costs, unlimited liquidity, and the absence of risk-free arbitrage opportunities. The strategy involves shorting futures contracts; if the exchange rate declines at maturity, the hedge is successful and profitable; if the exchange rate rises, the hedge is unsuccessful, resulting in a loss. The findings suggest that using futures contracts for hedging enables Amazon to stabilize its financial performance in case of market uncertainties, protecting it from adverse impacts of foreign exchange risk. Despite discrepancies between actual sales data and forecasts, the hedging strategy still demonstrates its effectiveness in maintaining financial stability.

A robust detection scheme against selective forwarding attacks in wireless sensor networks under variable harsh environments

Event-driven wireless sensor networks (EWSNs) often operate in harsh environments and are susceptible to selective forwarding attacks, where malicious nodes selectively drop packets. These attacks are difficult to detect due to similarities with normal node behavior under adverse conditions. To address this, we propose a detection scheme combining Variable Autoencoder (VAE) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with an Autoencoder (AE). The scheme extracts features from the node's single round forwarding rate (SFR), with VAE generating latent variables and GMM clustering them to differentiate behaviors. The AE model, trained on data representing normal behavior, uses reconstruction error to identify malicious nodes. Simulation results show that our scheme improves network throughput and achieves low False Detection Rate (FDR) and Missed Detection Rate (MDR), with both rates as low as 0.5% in normal conditions and below 2% in mobile harsh environments. With a computational complexity of O(n), this method is suitable for resource-constrained environments, demonstrating superior robustness compared to existing approaches.

On the Calibration of the Kennedy Model

The Kennedy model offers a robust framework for modeling forward rates, leveraging Gaussian random fields to accommodate emerging phenomena such as negative rates. In our study, we employ maximum likelihood estimations to determine the parameters of the Kennedy field, utilizing Radon–Nikodym derivatives for enhanced accuracy. We introduce an efficient simulation method for the Kennedy field and develop a Black–Scholes-like analytical pricing formula for diverse financial assets. Additionally, we present a novel parameter estimation algorithm grounded in numerical extreme value optimization, enabling the recalibration of parameters based on observed financial product prices. To validate the efficacy of our approach, we assess its performance using real-world par swap rates in the latter part of this article.

Revisiting elastic string models of forward interest rates

Twenty five years ago, several authors proposed to describe the forward interest rate curve (FRC) as an elastic string along which idiosyncratic shocks propagate, accounting for the peculiar structure of the return correlation across different maturities. In this paper, we revisit the specific ‘stiff’ elastic string field theory of Baaquie and Bouchaud [Stiff field theory of interest rates and psychological future time. Wilmott Mag., 2004, 2–6] in a way that makes its micro-foundation more transparent. Our model can be interpreted as capturing the effect of market forces that set the rates of nearby tenors in a self-referential fashion. The model is parsimonious and accurately reproduces the whole correlation structure of the FRC over the time period 1994–2023, with an error around 1% and with only one adjustable parameter, the value of which being very stable across the last three decades. The dependence of correlation on time resolution (also called the Epps effect) is also faithfully reproduced within the model and leads to a cross-tenor information propagation time on the order of 30 minutes. Finally, we confirm that the perceived time in interest rate markets is a strongly sub-linear function of real time, as surmised by Baaquie and Bouchaud [Stiff field theory of interest rates and psychological future time. Wilmott Mag., 2004, 2–6]. In fact, our results are fully compatible with hyperbolic discounting, in line with the recent behavioral Finance literature Farmer and Geanakoplos [Hyperbolic Discounting is Rational: Valuing the Far Future with Uncertain Discount Rates, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, 2009 (Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University)].

(Invited) The Electrochemical-Mechanical Coupled Interface Contacts during Lithium Plating and Stripping

The current density during battery operation is often assumed uniform across the entire electrode surface. This may be valid for conformal solid/liquid interfaces; however, solid/solid interfaces generally have imperfect contacts. By introducing the contact area ratio, γ, to the electrochemical model, it can be demonstrated clearly that the effective current density scales linearly with the 1/γ and the overpotential scales exponentially with contact area loss, 1-γ.The calculation of surface contact area must consider the multi-length-scale nature of surface roughness. Assuming surface roughness is self-affine, Bo Persson’s multiscale contact mechanics model for elastic materials can be used for the cathode/solid electrolyte interface to predict the necessary pressure to maintain the original contact area. [1]However, the most challenging process is Li-stripping, as the vacancy generated by each Li atom removed from the interfaces can accumulate and generate voids, reducing the contact area. However, under an applied stack pressure, the self-affine property will reach a steady state interface contact ratio (γo.) in different length scales. Thus, we proposed a coupled atomistic-and-continuum model, which will capture Li striping and vacancy hopping and accumulation near the Li/SE interface with Density Functional Theory (DFT) informed Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations and predict the macroscopic contact area evolution according to the macroscopic creep law with finite element simulations (FEM). The creep rate will be mapped to preferred forward hopping rates for all the Li atoms at the atomic scale. Solving these models iteratively leads to a steady contact area ratio (γo.). Generally, lithiophilic interface requires less stack pressure to maintain a flat surface while a higher stack pressure is needed at lithiophobic interfaces to accelerate Li vacancy diffusion into the bulk and maintain a flat surface. This critical stack pressure needs to be high enough to alter the Li forward-and-backward hopping barriers at the interface. This predictive multiscale simulation scheme was able to combine multiple chemical-mechanical effects during Li stripping morphology evolution. [2,3] [1] Hong-Kang Tian and Yue Qi, Electrochem. Soc. 2017, 164, E3512[2] T. Yang and Y. Qi, Chem. Mat. 2021, 33, 2814-2823[3] Feng, C.T. Yang, and Y. Qi, J. Electrochem. Soc. 2022, 169, 090526

A density of states-based approach to determine temperature-dependent aggregation rates.

Here, we establish an approach to determine temperature-dependent aggregation rates in terms of thermostatistical quantities, which can be obtained directly from flat-histogram and statistical temperature algorithms considering the density of states of the system. Our approach is validated through simulations of an Ising-like model with anisotropically interacting particles at temperatures close to its first-order phase transition. Quantitative comparisons between the numerically obtained forward and reverse rates to approximate analytical expressions corroborate its use as a model-independent approach.

The relationship between semen quality in male infertility clinic patients and bisphenol A：A Chinese cross-sectional study

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a growing concern as an endocrine-disrupting chemical due to its adverse health effects. However, the association between BPA and sperm quality in adult human males remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the daily life exposure level of BPA and analyze its correlation with sperm quality in males. Patients who sought treatment in Chinese infertility clinics between May and October 2023 were selected as study subjects. We determined participants' serum BPA content using high-performance liquid chromatography. Sperm count and motility were assessed using a computer-aided sperm analysis system, while sperm morphology was analyzed using an improved Papanicolaou stain. A total of 405 participants, averaging 33.01 ± 5.44 years old, were included. We observed low semen quality among participants in infertility clinics. Principal component analysis was performed for each semen quality index, and three principal components reflecting sperm motility, count, and morphology were extracted. The participants' mean serum BPA level was 6.96 ng/mL. Negative correlations were observed between serum BPA content and total sperm count, sperm density, forward motility rate, and non-forward motility rate. A positive correlation was found between the non-motile sperm rate and the head deformity rate. Morphological abnormalities were the predominant adverse effects observed. Despite low daily life BPA exposure, long-term low-dose exposure in the general population may damage semen quality. This study provides a scientific basis for managing health risks associated with BPA exposure.

Arbitrage outcome between conventional and Islamic finance of yield and forward rates in bond market

Purpose In this research, arbitrage opportunity is tested between the yield rates computed by the NSS model, and the computed forward rates between conventional and Islamic finance to see any arbitrage opportunity. The research questions are the conventional and Islamic finance yields at the same level and equal to each other to avoid arbitrage? Whether conventional and Islamic forward rates differ significantly and thus create any arbitrage opportunity. This study aims to find the presence or absence of arbitrage between conventional and Islamic finance yield rates. Design/methodology/approach The NSS model is the latest model in calculating yield and forward rates. In the method the error level is minimized so expected yield rate and given yield rate both converged (Vahidin and Anastasios, 2020). When they converged it gives the researchers all six months’ yield rates. For the Nelson Siegal method, all the six months’ yield rates are available and these yield rates can be used to compute the forward rates. Findings The authors concluded there is a significant difference between the conventional yield rate and the Islamic yield rate. It suggests that because there are significant differences, its suggest arbitrage is possible. So anyone interested in making a guaranteed profit. The conventional yield rates are lower; hence, anyone can borrow from the conventional finance system and invest the money in the Islamic financial system because investments are getting higher rates of income in the form of yield rate in Islamic Finance. So, one can make money because of this difference. Statistically, it is possible to make money, but practically, the authors observed the difference, however it is very meager. The arbitrage opportunity between Islamic finance and conventional finance will not affect the economy because the significant difference is too small. The disturbance in the arbitrage opportunity due to the values is very meager and insignificant. Research limitations/implications This research does not address the derivative contracts’ role in risk management; future researchers could take up this as another research. Practical implications This research will be beneficial for financial institutions, especially institutional investors. Besides, this research will help the regulators and investment bankers in assisting where and future losses especially bond portfolios in conventional finance and Islamic finance. This study will also contribute and help the asset manager of mutual funds in the mutual fund industries. Social implications In effect, this research will strengthen the financial system, capital market and bond market, derivative contracts such as options contracts, futures contracts, swap contracts and forward contracts will use computed forward rates for assessing future losses (value at risk [VaR]) and to hedge them (Balakrishnan, 2020). Originality/value As this topic is rarely studied it will increase the literature present in this domain.

Observed kinetics for the production of diethyl carbonate from CO2 and ethanol catalyzed by CuNi nanoparticles supported on activated carbon

Monometallic and bimetallic Cu:Ni catalysts with different Cu:Ni molar ratios (3:1, 2:1, 1:1, 1:2, 1:3) were synthesized by wetness impregnation on activated carbon and characterized by TPR (temperature programmed reduction), XRD (X-ray diffraction) and XPS (X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy). The synthesized catalysts were evaluated in the gas phase production of diethyl carbonate from ethanol and carbon dioxide. The largest catalytic activity was obtained over the bimetallic catalyst with a Cu:Ni molar ratio of 3:1. Its improved activity was attributed to the formation of a Cu–Ni alloy on the surface of the catalyst, evidenced by XPS and in agreement with a previous assignment based on Vegard law and TPR analysis. During the reaction rate experiments, it observed the presence of a maximum of the reaction rate as a function of temperature, a tendency also reported for other carbon dioxide–alcohol reactions. It showed that the reaction rate-temperature data can be adjusted with a reversible rate equation. The initial rate as a function of reactant partial pressure data was satisfactorily adjusted using the forward power law rate equation and it was found that the reaction rate is first order in CO2 and second order in ethanol.

Preliminarily exploring the intraoperative ultrasonography characteristics of patients with degenerative cervical myelopathy

BackgroundHow to quickly read and interpret intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) images of patients with degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM) to obtain meaningful information? Few studies have systematically explored this topic.PurposeTo systematically and comprehensively explore the IOUS characteristics of patients with DCM.Materials and methodsThis single-center study retrospectively included patients with DCM who underwent French-door laminoplasty (FDL) with IOUS guidance from October 2019 to March 2022. One-way ANOVA and Pearson’s /Spearman’s correlation analysis were used to analyze the correlations between the cross-sectional area of the spinal cord (SC) and individual characteristics; the relationships between the morphology, echogenicity, pulsation, decompression statuses, compression types of SC, location of the spinal cord central echo complex (SCCEC) and the disease severity (the preoperative Japanese Orthopedic Association score, preJOA score); the difference of the spinal cord pulsation amplitude(SCPA) and the SCCEC forward movement rate (FMR) between the compressed areas(CAs) and the non-compressed areas (NCAs).ResultsA total of 38 patients were successfully enrolled (30 males and 8 females), and the mean age was 57.05 ± 10.29 (27–75) years. The cross-sectional area of the SC was negatively correlated with age (r = − 0.441, p = 0.006). The preJOA score was significantly lower in the heterogeneous group than in the homogeneous group (P < 0.05, p = 0.005). The hyperechoic area (HEA) was negatively while the SCCEC FMR was positively correlated with the preJOA score (r = − 0.334, p = 0.020; r = 0.286, p = 0.041). The SCCEC FMR and SCPA in CAs were significantly greater than those in NCAs (p < 0.05, p = 0.007; P < 0.001, P = 0.000).ConclusionThe cross-sectional area of the SC decreases with age in adults. More changes in intramedullary echogenicity and less moving forward of the SCCEC often indicate poor SC status, and the SCCEC FMR and SCPA are more pronounced in CAs.

Comparative Analysis of Deliverable and Non-Deliverable Contracts in the Hong Kong Trading Market - Taking RMB as an Example

NDFs are over-the-counter traded foreign exchange derivative products. The settlement of an NDF contract does not involve the delivery of the underlying currency pair. Instead, it involves a net payment in a convertible currency (usually the US dollar), which is proportional to the difference between the agreed forward exchange rate and the subsequently realized spot fixing. Hong Kong's geopolitical location as an outlet that connects mainland China to the world gives it an essential role in researching CNY's international features Hong Kong's trading market serves as a crucial link for the expansion of RMB usage, with the resulting shifts in positions supporting the interpretation of the role of RMB in the process of globalization of the currency, as well as the interpretation of financial markets. This study examines how the Hong Kong market serves as a critical hub for the currency's global integration through its trading of RMB, and focuses on the interplay between market regulations, economic policies, and the intricate balance of supply and demand affecting deliverable (CNY and CNH) and non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. The research findings reveal that the examination of transaction data from Hong Kong's commodity exchange demonstrates a complicated interconnection between deliverable (CNY and CNH) and non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. This intricate relationship highlights the Chinese Yuan's (RMB) fluctuating role in the market, influenced by factors such as market sentiment, regulatory changes, and economic conditions. In essence, the RMB's trading volumes and value in this setting reflect its sensitivity to both domestic and international market shifts.