Energy Policy Formulation Research Articles

A roadmap framework for solar aided power generation in South Africa

Technology roadmaps are critical for decisions pertaining to technology development. They have been utilised in the renewable energy sector to assist in filtering alternative technology options in order to support energy policy formulation, energy security and energy independence, among others. However, solar aided power generation is a recent concept and no roadmap has been developed for the technology as yet. This paper thus reviewed the literature related to roadmapping with the aim of understanding the methods and tools that have been utilised in other settings. Informed by the literature, a conceptual framework was developed, which was further utilised for the initial analysis for developing a roadmap for solar aided power generation in South Africa. Generally, it would be beneficial for South Africa to integrate solar aided power generation within its current Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) or the National Treasury Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programme. However, it should be noted that this is only feasible in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, there is a need to support stand-alone solar thermal technologies.

A roadmap framework for solar aided power generation in South Africa

Technology roadmaps are critical for decisions pertaining to technology development. They have been utilised in the renewable energy sector to assist in filtering alternative technology options in order to support energy policy formulation, energy security and energy independence, among others. However, solar aided power generation is a recent concept and no roadmap has been developed for the technology as yet. This paper thus reviewed the literature related to roadmapping with the aim of understanding the methods and tools that have been utilised in other settings. Informed by the literature, a conceptual framework was developed, which was further utilised for the initial analysis for developing a roadmap for solar aided power generation in South Africa. Generally, it would be beneficial for South Africa to integrate solar aided power generation within its current Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) or the National Treasury Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programme. However, it should be noted that this is only feasible in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, there is a need to support stand-alone solar thermal technologies.

The effect of internal and external determinants of electricity projects in Libya

PurposeIn recent times, electricity as one of the most important energy sources has witnessed considerable decreases in consumption figures. These cutbacks have been mainly due to the growing increasing living standards, minimal governance and political fracture. Thus, this paper aims to appraise the supply of electricity side in an attempt to propose a sustainable electricity framework.Design/methodology/approachThe reviewed literature identified a gap within the previous literature which had not previously been investigated; however, to carry out the investigation, a research strategy had to be formulated. Twenty semi-structured interviews were carried out with managers, engineers and electrical professionals. Prior to the commencement of the main study, a preliminary pilot study was carried out among ten senior practitioners in the General Electric Company of Libya. The purpose of the pilot study was to assess clarity of questions, timing and suitability of the respondents for the study, and to establish its reliability and validity.FindingsFrom the aspect of the demand, the study found that there was a diverse set of factors that affect electricity demand in Libya. These included the average real price of electricity, the real value of the imported electrical appliances, gross domestic product, population, the temperature difference and the lagged electricity demand. Secondly, from the aspect of electricity supply, the study found that there was a diverse set of factors that affect electricity projects in Libya or even the development of existing projects. These factors included electricity demand, political effects, recession, oil prices and improved development of other infrastructure.Research limitations/implicationsDue to limitations in time and cost, political instability in the country and the lack of security, the entire analysis was only of the demand for electricity in Libya based on data collected from secondary sources and primary data resources. The ordinary least squares method of regression used for the purpose of quantitative analysis only included the factors related to the demand for electricity in Libya. It is worth noting that the research work did not include any quantitative analysis that comprised factors related to the supply of electricity in the country. Such an analysis could have technically carved the ways to augment the supply of electricity. Therefore, the context of the research work is one-sided that focuses primarily on the demand.Practical implicationsThe problem confronting development of electricity projects in Libya has three components: The first is the national significance of the projects as a physical resource. The second is the conflict arising politically from within. The third is the lack of consideration given to the specific resource management issues associated with the projects within the government plans and policy statements. In addition, participants further claimed that there were three more independent factors that could affect the level of electricity demand in Libya. These were urbanisation, industrialisation and literacy rates.Social implicationsThe participants also believed that as the rate of socio-economic development increases, the demand for electricity is expected to rise. Urbanisation, industrialisation and literacy rates are some of the developments which will exert more demand pressure on the electricity supply. The participants claimed that the government should take into account the urbanisation rates in Libya in the energy policy formulation. Electricity companies can also take a cue from the urbanisation trends and other socio-economic developments to plan the delivery of electricity according to the rising demand.Originality/valueThis study appraised the supply of electricity side in Libya and proposed a sustainable framework that could be used by policymakers to address energy demand issues in Libya.

Social-ecological system resonance: a theoretical framework for brokering sustainable solutions

Sustainability science is a solution-oriented discipline. Yet, there are few theory-rich discussions about how this orientation structures the efforts of sustainability science. We argue that Niklas Luhmann’s social system theory, which explains how societies communicate problems, conceptualize solutions, and identify pathways towards implementation of solutions, is valuable in explaining the general structure of sustainability science. From Luhmann, we focus on two key concepts. First, his notion of resonance offers us a way to account for how sustainability science has attended and responded to environmental risks. As a product of resonance, we reveal solution-oriented research as the strategic coordination of capacities, resources, and information. Second, Luhmann’s interests in self-organizing processes explain how sustainability science can simultaneously advance multiple innovations. The value logic that supports this multiplicity of self-organizing activities as a recognition that human and natural systems are complex coupled and mutually influencing. To give form to this theoretical framework, we offer case evidence of renewable energy policy formation in Texas. Although the state’s wealth is rooted in a fossil-fuel heritage, Texas generates more electricity from wind than any US state. It is politically antagonistic towards climate-change policy, yet the state’s reception of wind energy technology illustrates how social and environmental systems can be strategically aligned to generate solutions that address diverse needs simultaneously. This case demonstrates that isolating climate change—as politicians do as a separate and discrete problem—is incapable of achieving sustainable solutions, and resonance offers researchers a framework for conceptualizing, designing, and communicating meaningfully integrated actions.

What kind of socio-technical research for what sort of influence on energy policy?

We summarise and take issue with Adam Cooper’s analysis of the relationship between social scientific research and the formulation of energy policy. Cooper’s case for ‘socio-technical’ energy research contains several empirical and logical flaws. We identify five points of weakness in what is intended to be a constructive critique. Though we share his concern that energy policy is less than ideal when lacking input from wider social science, we take a different view of why the problem Cooper identifies exists and, thus, what the appropriate solutions might be.

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM CAMBODIA

This study examines the inter-relationship among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth for a Mekong River Commission (MRC) country - Cambodia. The empirical results suggest that real gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, and CO2 emissions are cointegrated. It needs 11 years to achieve a long-run equilibrium. There is a unidirectional causality from real GDP to energy consumption, and a bidirectional causality between real GDP, and CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions are related to energy consumption through real GDP. This study is relevant and importance for Cambodia in formulating energy policies, for example, the revision of national energy efficiency policy.

Using geospatial information and building energy simulation to construct urban residential energy use map with high resolution for Taiwan cities

An urban energy use map that illustrates the building energy consumption of a city can facilitate the formulation of energy policies. This paper used dynamic simulations of building energy consumption and building information from a geographic information system were used to develop urban energy use maps with high spatial resolutions for two urban areas in southern Taiwan. 4000 models for typical residential layouts in Taiwan were generated through the Monte Carlo method and the benchmark values of the buildings’ energy use intensity (EUI) were identified through building energy simulation and uncertainty analysis. Accordingly, the benchmark EUI values, building data, and population data were used as input parameters to derive a convenient equation for predicting energy consumption in each grid of the urban energy use maps. A comparison of the measured and predicted energy consumptions confirmed the precision of this equation. To sum up, relevant data are readily available and can be exploited to prepare urban energy use maps for other large cities in Taiwan. Moreover, the urban energy use map with high spatial resolution can present the differences in small areas, making it an important reference aid for determining energy policies

STUDENTS’ AWARENESS OF AND ADHERENCE TO ENERGY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN SELECTED STUDENTS' HALLS OF RESIDENCE AT KWAME NKRUMAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, GHANA

Energy management is one of the current policy directions of the Ghana government given the increasing challenges associated with energy generation to cope with the growing demand. A conscious attempt at adopting practices aimed at conserving energy is considered a sinequanon to coping with the current energy challenges in Ghana. However, an assessment of the awareness level of energy management practices is yet to be rigorously pursued as an agenda towards energy conservation in institutions and agencies perceived to be high energy consumers. Currently, the increasing growth in student numbers in the universities in Ghana and the high energy demands against the low level of energy generation to cope with these demands needs urgent attention. Consequently, adherence to effective energy management practices among students in these universities is considered a prima-facie in coping with the energy challenges in the country. The aim of this study was to assess the awareness and adherence levels of energy management practices of students in tertiary institutions in Ghana. Using KNUST as a case study, a questionnaire survey was carried out amongst students in residential accommodation on the campus. Subsequently, mean score and one sample t-test analyses were employed to analyze the empirical data elicited. The findings revealed a generally low awareness and adherence level to the critical energy management practices amongst students. These findings have implications for energy policy formulation and innovations towards conservation and management. Keywords: Energy management; Ghana; Hostels; Students

Entropy and Stability Analysis of Delayed Energy Supply–Demand Model

In this paper, a four-dimensional model of energy supply–demand with two-delay is built. The interactions among energy demand of east China, energy supply of west China and the utilization of renewable energy in east China are delayed in this model. We discuss stability of the system affected by parameters and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the equilibrium point from two aspects: single delay and two-delay. The stability and complexity of the system are demonstrated through bifurcation diagram, Poincare section plot, entropy diagram, etc. in numerical simulation. The simulation results show that the parameters beyond the stable region will cause the system to be unstable and increase the complexity of the system. At this point, because of energy supply–demand system fluctuations, it is difficult to formulate energy policies. Finally, the bifurcation control is realized successfully by the method of delayed feedback control. The results of bifurcation control simulation indicate that the system can return to stable state by adjusting the control parameter. In addition, we find that the bigger the value of the control parameter, the better the effect of the bifurcation control. The results of this paper can provide help for maintaining the stability of the system, which will be conducive to energy scheduling.

Imperatives for Modelling and Forecasting Petroleum Products Demand for Nigeria

Abstract Modelling and forecasting petroleum products demand is a key input for energy use planning and policy formulation. This paper employs the Structural Time Series Model to estimate and forecast demand for two key petroleum products – gasoline and diesel in Nigeria. The STSM can account for structural changes in an economy through the underlying energy demand trend. STSM incorporate stochastic rather than deterministic trend which is more general and therefore argued to be more appropriate in this study. The result suggests that the demand for petroleum products in Nigeria is both price and income inelastic and fall within the range reported in the literature while the underlying demand trends were generally stochastic in nature. The demand models were forecast under three scenarios; reference case, low and high demand. The reference or base scenario describes the future based on current economic and policy environment, that is, without any specific policy shock. Under the reference case scenario, gasoline and diesel demand were forecast to reach 45.3 and 8.03 million litre per day in 2030 representing demand increase of 42% and 66% for gasoline and diesel respectively in the next fifteen years. This presents a significant challenge towards attaining self-sufficiency in meeting Nigeria’s petroleum products demands through local refining. There is therefore urgent need for the government to revamp existing refineries and encourage private investors to build new ones in order to reduce dependence on product imports.

Using social network analysis to examine the technological evolution of fermentative hydrogen production from biomass

In recent years, hydrogen energy has become important to sustainable energy supply as a source that can help mitigate the impact of climate change. This study examines the evolution of biomass fermentation, an important part of hydrogen production, by using patent searches and citations, and surveying the momentum of the technology. The social networking created by the relationships among patent citations for patent technologies are first analyzed, and the evolution of patent technology is discussed by describing its momentum. Following this, the core patents emerging from the evolution of patent technology are identified, and the cycle time for the patent technology is estimated from the cited patents. The study analyzed approximately 1970 patents by United States Patent and Trademark Office to describe the evolution of fermentative hydrogen production through biomass technology. The results revealed that the developmental stage of fermentative hydrogen production from biomass is growing, and its technological cycle of approximately 12.59 years indicated a gradually changing trend in fermentative hydrogen production from biomass. The study findings should provide governments with a reference point in the formulation of future energy policy.

Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model

Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas.

Urban household cooking energy choice: an example of Bauchi metropolis, Nigeria

The use of traditional energy sources such as wood, animal dung and agricultural residue by households has been in practice since time immemorial. This has however been identified as a cause of environmental problems such as excessive deforestation and the cause of the premature death of about 4.3 million people yearly; it caused the death of about 396,000 people in Sub-Saharan Africa, where Nigeria is located, in 2002. It was also responsible for 2.7 % of the global burden of disease in that year. The reasons for fuel choice are different for different locations. This paper presents the results of a study in the factors affecting the cooking energy choice of households in Bauchi metropolis, North-east Nigeria. The aim of the study was to provide site-specific information that will aid the formulation of an effective energy policy which will result in safer and sustainable energy behaviour among households in Bauchi and Nigeria as a nation. The study therefore determined the cooking energy consumption pattern of the household and whether it follows the energy ladder model and also determined the factors that influence cooking energy choice. Two-step random sampling was used along with a semi-structured questionnaire to collect data. Descriptive statistics, T test and regression analysis were used to analyse the data through the help of Microsoft excel™ and SPSS. The results show that biomass fuel is still being used heavily while the use of LPG has improved. Electricity and solar energy are only used by households as secondary cooking energy. The fuel use pattern is characterized by multiple fuel use, conforming more to the fuel stacking hypothesis than energy ladder hypothesis. Change in household size, dwelling ownership status, change of season, income, level of education, dwelling location, availability and affordability are the factors that were found to influence household cooking energy choice. This paper concludes that the heavy use of biomass for cooking in Bauchi metropolis is not environmentally healthy and requires serious attention. The major recommendation of the study is that policies encouraging the availability and use of efficient and environmentally friendly energy sources should be formulated and implemented.

Towards an evolutionary or a transformational energy transition? Transition concepts and roadmaps in European Union policy discourse

To develop a new typology of energy transitions, the article firstly clarifies the ambiguities in the transition debate and establishes fault lines that divide rival conceptualizations of energy transitions. The main fault lines relate to a product versus a process emphasis, a deterministic versus an open-ended perspective, and near-term versus long-term orientations. Two “ideal type” positionings towards energy transition(s) are developed. An evolutionary variety is based on incremental energy transitions over the long term which combine “old” and “new” energy sources and providers, whereas a transformational variety recommends a “grand transition” based on a near-term switch to 100% renewables. In its second section, the article uses this twofold typology to investigate transition thinking in the energy policy discourse of the European Commission. A key finding is that the Commission’s policy documents indicate a leaning towards evolutionary transitions, with reliance on conventional energy sources set to continue for some time. Several explanations for this leaning are identified: a shortage of political will, finite available means, limits to knowledge, as well as institutional incapacity. An additional finding is that tensions in energy policy formulation emerging from the EU’s multilevel system of governance are leading to a clash between pioneer member states aiming for an ambitious energy transition and the Commission’s more modest orientations. In consequence, an analytical typology exploring conflict between rival conceptualizations of energy transitions will be relevant for the future.

Rebound effects for residential electricity use in urban China: an aggregation analysis based E-I-O and scenario simulation

Technological progress is considered an important means of decreasing energy consumption. However, rebound effects caused by energy efficiency improvements directly affect the realization of energy savings and emission reduction. This paper focuses on the main theory and methodology of direct and indirect rebound effects. Using 30 sets of provincial panel data and national input–output data for China from 2007, this paper builds a co-integrating equation, a panel error correction model, and an 8-sector energy-input–output model. We subsequently estimate the direct and indirect rebound effects of urban residential electricity use. The results indicate that in the long term the direct plus indirect partial rebound effect is 0.79; in the short term it is 0.78. Thus, the majority of the expected electricity reduction in Chinese urban residential energy consumption arising from efficiency improvement may be offset. These rebound effects impair the functioning of energy efficiency policies. Therefore, the Chinese government should not improve energy efficiency alone—they must also take into consideration the relevant energy-pricing reforms when formulating energy policies.

Adoption of green electricity policies: Investigating the role of environmental attitudes via big data-driven search-queries

Despite the rising influence of public opinion on government energy policy formulation and implementation, the roles of pro and/or anti-environmental attitudes among residents have not been empirically examined. To quantify time-varying environmental attitudes among local residents, we exploit geo-specific Google search-query data derived from Internet-based “big data” and verify through ordinary least squares regression outcomes regarding environmental behavior. For the purpose of drawing policy implications, we revisit decisions by state governments of the United States to adopt three well-known green electricity policies: renewable energy portfolio, net metering rules, and public benefit funds. As some states have not yet adopted some (or any) of these policies, unlike previous studies, we handle the issue by examining right-censored data and applying a duration-based econometric method called the accelerated failure time model. We found state residents’ environmental attitudes to have statistically significant roles, after controlling for other traditional time-varying policy adoption factors. Interestingly, the extent to which anti-environmental attitudes affect a state’s policy adoption differs across green energy policies, and knowing this can help a local government formulate better-tailored environmental policy. In particular, researchers can use our method of incorporating citizens’ environmental attitudes to discuss relevant issues in the field of energy policy.

Experts' opinions on the effects of renewable energy development on ecosystem services in the Alpine region

Renewable energies—such as solar photovoltaic power, hydropower, wind power, and forest biomass—have a key role in the European Union (EU) policy aimed at enhancing energy security and mitigating climate change. The new target established by European Commission for 2030 is a 30% improvement in energy efficiency, 40% less greenhouses gas emissions, and 27% increase in energy generation from renewable sources. In order to achieve this target, it will be necessary to define a political strategy to increase renewable energies' production. The renewable energies' production generates different kinds of environmental impacts, depending mainly on the energy source. For this reason, transdisciplinary and local expertise are crucial in order to assess impacts on various ecosystem services and to choose the best renewable energy sources to develop. This study evaluates the potential effects of renewable energies development on Alpine ecosystem services using a questionnaire-based survey. The questionnaire was administrated to a sample of 45 experts in several Alpine areas. Experts' opinions are fundamental for anticipating potential social costs and benefits caused by renewable energies and ensuring a successful formulation and implementation of energy policies, reducing conflicts and improving cooperation among the different groups of interest.

The contribution of nuclear energy to economic growth in France: short and long run

The recent nuclear accident of Fukushima has made a number of countries, such as France reconsider nuclear energy as an option. This article investigates the dynamic links between economic growth and nuclear energy production in France. In order to test for Granger causality, includes variance decompositions and impulse responses in the presence of co-integration among the variables, a vector error correction model is used to analyze the quarterly series from 1990:1 to 2011:4. Our results indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between nuclear energy and economic growth. The results show a big interdependence between nuclear energy and the French energetic system. In fact, nuclear energy generation has an important role in increasing the GDP growth. Therefore, based on the obtained results, it is important for France to increase its investment in nuclear energy projects to boost its share of total energy use since it increases GDP growth. The present study may guide policymakers in formulating energy policies for green economic and sustainable development in France.

The Impact of CO2 Emission on Output in Algeria

Emissions of global warming gases continue to rise as the world burns ever more coal, oil and gas for energy. The study investigates the nexus between carbon dioxide (CO2) emission per capita and economic growth of energy consumption in over the period 1990-2100. To evaluate the impact of CO2 emission on relative variables, this study verifies that there are positive long-run relationship among CO2 emissions, Electric power consumption and Energy use. This paper also proves bi-directional causality between CO2 emission and electric power consumption (modeling the impact of CO2 emission on output especially in Algeria). The policy makers may evaluate exogenous effect to seeking economic growth for global climate warming and to formulate energy policies.

A Study of Factors that Influence the Adoption of Solar Powered Lanterns in a Rural Village in Kenya

The problem of access to electricity is still a major challenge to about 2 billion people that still live in rural and urban off-grid areas on incomes of $1-2/day. Since the cost of linking these people to the grid is high, there is a need to explore the development of alternative energy solutions for the provision of electricity in such contexts. There is also a need to develop new insights for the formulation of evidence-based policy that could enable the development of strategies to provide electricity to people that live in off-grid areas. This paper presents the results of a survey that provides insights for the formulation of evidence-based policy for the adoption of solar lanterns into rural/urban off-grid areas. The two year questionnaire study was carried out in Mpala Village in the Laikipia district of Kenya. The study identifies the factors that resulted in the adoption rate of 96% and a decrease of 14.7% in annual family expenditures. The social and health impacts are also elucidated before discussing the implications of the results for the formulation of evidence-based solar energy policy in developing countries.