Forest Management Scenarios Research Articles

Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change.

Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.

Carbon stocks and timber harvest. Alternative policy approaches for the Great Bear rainforest and their consequences

Forest policy-making can be dramatically enhanced by implementing computer based decision support systems (DSS) during the development phase. While stakeholders usually agree on general policy objectives, the best course of action for achieving them is often unclear. Forest DSS can support the assessment of alternative forest policy frameworks with respect to their impact on multiple variables of interest for stakeholders and decision makers, yet, these tools are often underutilised.In January 2016 a new land use order policy for the Great Bear Rainforest (GBR) in Canada, the largest coastal temperate rainforest in the world, was legally established. The GBR order aims to support ecosystem-based management and legally binding objectives to ensure the long term health of this unique area. This new policy framework will lead to a dramatic decrease in timber harvest levels. We developed 5 alternative forest management scenarios with a less abrupt decline in harvest levels, including carbon sequestration as an option to economically buffer the expected declines in yield. We modelled the development of the forest resources in the area under each scenario over a timeframe of 350years. In doing so we were able to show how the use of computer based DSS is able to assist policy making by providing a comprehensive assessment of consequences associated with the alternatives, to ensure that long term targets are met.Our results show that currently, the GBR stores around 1.73Bt carbon, a number that will increase to 1.84Bt under the GBR order. While it is possible to increase carbon storage by up to 8% when lowering overall timber harvest by 36% over a timeframe of 350years, naturally, those scenarios with a less dramatic decline in timber harvest were related to an overall lower level of carbon stocks. Combined approaches though, which allow balancing timber harvests with ecosystem integrity, are a powerful alternative to a dramatic and abrupt decrease in harvest levels. The success of combined approaches does heavily depend on timber and carbon markets though. With notoriously cyclical markets the long term economy related to the implementation of the new GBR order remains uncertain when looking at carbon and timber markets only, strongly suggesting to rely on diversification and the creation of added value products.

Forest management and future changes to ecosystem services in the Romanian Carpathians

This study investigates consequences of future changes to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) in the Romanian Carpathians. Two 2040 forest management scenarios were compared, using two indicators to describe the gains and losses of ES. Changes in landslide regulation potential were defined as changes to landslide susceptibility. High nature value grasslands characterized biodiversity support. The business as usual scenario results in a 8% lower loss of landslide regulation potential compared to the alternative scenario. It also results in a 29% higher regional net gain of landslide regulation potential. Both scenarios result in the loss of biodiversity support due to their prevalent transition of forest expansion. This type of information is crucial for informing decision makers on the locations of potential gains and losses of future development.

Forest management scenarios in a changing climate: trade-offs between carbon, timber, and old forest.

Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30-41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11-15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region.

Nitrogen fertilization reduces wild berry production in boreal forests

Nitrogen is the main limiting nutrient in temperate and boreal forests. Large-scale nitrogen fertilization has been suggested as a potential tool to enhance production and meet the increasing demand for wood products and biofuels. Here, we test the effect of N fertilization and thinning on berry (i.e., fruit) production and incidence of fungal pathogens along a latitudinal gradient in Sweden. We used an N fertilization (100–150kgha−1) and thinning experiment that was established between 1970 and 1980 in 30 pine forests, covering a latitudinal gradient stretching from southern to northern Sweden. We measured fruit production and disease incidence of fungal pathogens in bilberry and cowberry in the experimental plots (30×30m), over two years (2014 and 2015), when the stands were between 67 and 85years old. Nitrogen fertilization reduced fruit production for both species, while thinning had a positive effect. For cowberry, treatment effects on fruit production were mainly associated with changes in plant cover, while direct treatment effects altered fruit production in bilberry. Furthermore, N application increased disease incidence of the parasitic fungus Valdensia heterodoxa in bilberry and contributed to the reduced fruit production in the N treatment. In contrast, disease incidence of the main parasitic fungus in cowberry (snow-mold disease) was negatively affected by N. Thinning decreased disease incidence in bilberry, but tended to increase incidence in cowberry. For cowberry, disease incidence increased with latitude. Overall, our results suggest that the N-induced effect on fruit production in bilberry is partly associated with presence of the parasitic fungus, and largely due to unknown direct effects. For cowberry, reduction in fruit production is correlated with N-induced negative effects on plant cover. Large-scale fertilization will have an overall negative impact on fruit production, and given that fruit production is considered highly valuable in the context of ecosystem services and functioning, this reduction should be considered when forest management scenarios that include N fertilization are evaluated. Thinning on the other hand, can promote fruit production and may be used as a management tool to generate berry-rich forests.

Sustaining the Joint Production of Timber and Lactarius Mushroom: A Case Study of a Forest Management Planning Unit in Northwestern Turkey

Forest management planning focusing on sustainable supply of forest-based services such as wood and Non-Wood Forest Products (NWFPs) is important for the sustainability of forest ecosystems over time. This study explores the development of a mushroom integrated decision support system (ETÇAPOptimization) for multiple use forest management planning and for the analysis of long-term effects of different forest management scenarios on the joint production of timber and mushroom. The Decision Support System (DSS) integrates both mushroom and timber production derived from the same forest ecosystem using empirical models for mushroom occurrence and yield as well as for tree growth. The DSS takes further into account the spatial distribution and productivity models of Lactarius deliciosus and Lactarius salmonicolor generated for the Kızılcasu Planning unit in Northwest Turkey. Six different forest management scenarios were considered, each with a different set of objectives, e.g., maximization of both the amount and the income from timber or mushroom production. Some scenarios include further timber even flow constraints (10% fluctuation). The Net Present Value (NPV) and the amount of timber and of mushroom production were used as performance indicators to discuss and elaborate on forest dynamics under different management scenarios. The results indicated that forest management planning strategies to address the maximization of NPV from mushroom production scenarios are characterized by substantial decreases in total income from the forest due mainly to the conservation of forest areas to favor mushroom production. On the other hand, the integration of regulatory constraints into forest management plans lead to a substantial decrease of both the economic profit and the amount of forest ecosystem services, e.g., timber and mushroom. The results showed that the NPV from mushroom production can be two to three times higher than the NPV from timber production based on carefully designed management objectives and constraints.

Impact of forest management intensity on mushroom occurrence and yield with a simulation-based decision support system

Well-researched and sound integration of non-wood forest products into a forest management planning process presents an opportunity to understand the fundamental causative basis of forest dynamics through decision support systems (DSS). The aim of this study is to present a simulation-based mushroom integrated decision support system, ETÇAPSimulation model, and forecast the effects of forest management intensity on mushroom productivity and occurrence. This is conducted through five policy sets with different planning scenarios, representing timber-oriented forest management (T1), multipurpose forest management (M1, M4, M6), and no intervention (NI). The study area involves the Kızılcasu Planning unit from the northwestern part of Turkey. The spatial distribution and productivity models of Lactarius delisiosus and L. salmonicolor generated for the Kızılcasu Planning unit were used in the simulation based model. The results indicated that both minimum harvesting ages and the intensity of forest management interventions are very important for increasing mushroom productivity and occurrence in the case study area. Under the T1 forest management scenario, mushroom productivity is estimated to be approximately 12,469 tonnes. When the planning approach changes to NI, M1, M4 and M6, however, mushroom productivity experiences 86%, 28%, 26% and 33% reduction rates, respectively. Despite these reductions, spatial distribution of mushrooms has been positively affected by forest management interventions.Simulations with multipurpose management policy would probably lead lower estimations of spatial distribution areas and productivity of mushroom than timber-oriented forest management policy would. Multiple-use planning approach seems to contribute less to mushroom productivity and the occurrence than does timber-oriented approach. In fact, determining optimal harvesting ages and the intensity of forest management interventions for each forest value presents a great challenge for decision makers. The DSS tools like ETÇAPSimulation are of great importance to understand the long term effects of various management plans on forest dynamics. Active management of forest resources will be important for achieving simultaneous production of timber products and mushrooms.

Distance-independent tree basal area growth models for Norway spruce, Douglas-fir and Japanese larch in Southern Belgium

This paper presents new harmonized distance-independent individual tree basal area growth models for Norway spruce, Douglas-fir and Japanese larch in pure even-aged stands in Southern Belgium. The selected model was originally developed for Norway spruce and Douglas-fir in neighboring France. New formulations are proposed for some of the model components in order to lower the number of fitted parameters and facilitate the fitting procedure. The resulting models integrate the most recent corresponding top-height growth models and use four simple and usually collected explanatory variables: stand age, top-height, total basal area and tree girth at breast height. The modified formulations maintain similar fitting performances and make it easier to interpret the influence of the explanatory variables on tree growth. Parameters estimates were fitted on thousands of growth measurements gathered from several monitoring plots, forest management inventories and silvicultural field experiments that represent the wide range of site conditions and of forest management scenarios applied to coniferous stands in Southern Belgium. Cross-validation of the models revealed no bias and highlighted their consistent behavior over the entire range of girth at breast height, age, top-height, site index and density represented in our dataset. Combining utility and robust performances, these models represent useful forest management tools, purposely ideal for forest simulation software development. Moreover, the flexibility and generic capabilities of the model formulation should make it easily adjustable for other species in even-aged stands.

Modelling forest carbon stock changes as affected by harvest and natural disturbances. II. EU-level analysis.

BackgroundForests and the forest sector may play an important role in mitigating climate change. The Paris Agreement and the recent legislative proposal to include the land use sector in the EU 2030 climate targets reflect this expectation. However, greater confidence on estimates from national greenhouse gas inventories (GHGI) and more comprehensive analyses of mitigation options are needed to seize this mitigation potential. The aim of this paper is to provide a tool at EU level for verifying the EU GHGI and for simulating specific policy and forest management scenarios. Therefore, the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) was applied for an integrated assessment of the EU forest carbon (C) balance from 2000 to 2012, including: (i) estimates of the C stock and net CO2 emissions for forest management (FM), afforestation/reforestation (AR) and deforestation (D), covering carbon in both the forest and the harvest wood product (HWP) pools; (ii) an overall analysis of the C dynamics associated with harvest and natural disturbances (mainly storms and fires); (iii) a comparison of our estimates with the data reported in the EU GHGI.ResultsOverall, the average annual FM sink (−365 Mt CO2 year−1) estimated by the CBM in the period 2000–2012 corresponds to about 7 % of total GHG emissions at the EU level for the same period (excluding land use, land-use change and forestry). The HWP pool sink (−44 Mt CO2 year−1) contributes an additional 1 %. Emissions from D (about 33 Mt CO2 year−1) are more than compensated by the sink in AR (about 43 Mt CO2 year−1 over the period). For FM, the estimates from the CBM were about 8 % lower than the EU GHGI, a value well within the typical uncertainty range of the EU forest sink estimates. For AR and D the match with the EU GHGI was nearly perfect (difference <±2 % in the period 2008–2012). Our analysis on harvest and natural disturbances shows that: (i) the impact of harvest is much greater than natural disturbances but, because of salvage logging (often very relevant), the impact of natural disturbances is often not easily distinguishable from the impact of harvest, and (ii) the impact of storms on the biomass C stock is 5–10 times greater than fires, but while storms cause only indirect emissions (i.e., a transfer of C from living biomass to dead organic matter), fires cause both direct and indirect emissions.ConclusionsThis study presents the application of a consistent methodological approach, based on an inventory-based model, adapted to the forest management conditions of EU countries. The approach captures, with satisfactory detail, the C sink reported in the EU GHGI and the country-specific variability due to harvest, natural disturbances and land-use changes. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive study of its kind at EU level, i.e., including all the forest pools, HWP and natural disturbances, and a comparison with the EU GHGI. The results provide the basis for possible future policy-relevant applications of this model, e.g., as a tool to support GHGIs (e.g., on accounting for natural disturbances) and to verify the EU GHGI, and for the simulation of specific scenarios at EU level.

Non-market values of forest biodiversity and the impact of informing the general public: Insights from generalized multinomial logit estimations

Apart from the ethical argument around trade-off that individuals have to make between monetary and non-monetary value, application of stated preference method was exposed to another criticism related to the complexity of biodiversity issue and the capacity of the general public to provide accurate responses to willingness to pay elicitation survey. This paper tests how providing information about the ecological processes underlying forest management scenarios affects public preferences and their valuation of biodiversity in publicly owned forest land in France. The generalized multinomial logit models applied to choice experiment data suggests that all respondents adopt the same heuristics based on easily visible aspects of forest landscape, to reveal their use and nonuse values of biodiversity. However, when they receive additional ecological information, only those who are familiar with the biodiversity concept, have awareness of issues at stake, and have a regular use of forest tend to attach higher values to less known biodiversity component (fallen deadwood in this case). The paper concludes that “mass media campaign” has to be completed by environmental literacy programs, to improve people’s awareness and understanding of what biodiversity means from ecological functioning, then making economic valuation a useful tool from a conservation perspective.

Evaluation of the effects of three European forest types on slope stability by field and probabilistic analyses and their implications for forest management

It is well known that forests play a crucial role in preventing soil erosion and landslides; however, forests are also subjected to dynamic evolution driven by natural processes and anthropogenic factors. This dynamic evolution affects spruce and chestnut forests in some European regions (e.g., Italian Alps, central and northern Europe), where these species have been forced by management practice to establish over long periods where other species, such as European beech, would be expected to occur as a result of natural processes.Using a large dataset of field and laboratory measurements of root density and root mechanical properties, the performances of Norway spruce, Sweet chestnut and European beech are analyzed from a slope stability perspective by using a model based on the limit equilibrium principle within a probabilistic framework.The results showed differences and similarities between the root systems of the analyzed species, both in terms of root distribution and mechanical properties. However, the probabilistic distribution that better fits the root reinforcement values obtained by the experimental work is, in all cases, a lognormal function.The developed method can be used to estimate the factor of safety for several combinations of geotechnical and hydrological parameters and different root reinforcement probability distributions using Monte Carlo techniques. The obtained values have been evaluated in terms of probability to have a factor of safety of less than 1 for increasing values of slope steepness.Although each single hillslope should be studied individually to account for local stand conditions that strongly affect root system performance, European beech is generally more efficient than Sweet chestnut and Norway spruce in terms of enhancing slope stability.Based on our results, in all cases where the stability of slopes represents a concern and spruce and chestnut communities are perishing, the natural colonization by European beech should be evaluated positively and possibly promoted by forest managers. Moreover, the developed method provides a general framework that could be applied to other species and conditions to define the consequences of different forest management scenarios in terms of slope stability.

Modeling height–diameter relationship for Populus euphratica in the Tarim riparian forest ecosystem, Northwest China

Modeling height–diameter relationships is an important component in estimating and predicting forest development under different forest management scenarios. In this paper, ten widely used candidate height–diameter models were fitted to tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH) data for Populus euphratica Oliv. within a 100 ha permanent plots at Arghan Village in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. Data from 4781 trees were used and split randomly into two sets: 75 % of the data were used to estimate model parameters (model calibration), and the remaining data (25 %) were reserved for model validation. All model performances were evaluated and compared by means of multiple model performance criteria such as asymptotic t-statistics of model parameters, standardized residuals against predicted height, root mean square error (RMSE), Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), mean prediction error (ME) and mean absolute error (MAE). The estimated parameter a for model (6) was not statistically significant at a level of α = 0.05. RMSE and AIC test result for all models showed that exponential models (1), (2), (3) and (4) performed significantly better than others. All ten models had very small MEs and MAEs. Nearly all models underestimated tree heights except for model (6). Comparing the MEs and MAEs of models, model (1) produced smaller MEs (0.0059) and MAEs (1.3754) than other models. To assess the predictive performance of models, we also calculated MEs by dividing the model validation data set into 10-cm DBH classes. This suggested that all models were likely to create higher mean prediction errors for tree DBH classes >20 cm. However, no clear trend was found among models. Model (6) generated significantly smaller mean prediction errors across all tree DBH classes. Considering all the aforementioned criteria, model (1): $$ {\text{TH}} = 1.3 + {\text{a}}/\left( {1 + {\text{b}} \times {\text{e}}^{{ - {\text{c}} \times {\text{DBH}}}} } \right) $$ and model (6): $$ {\text{TH}} = 1.3 + {\text{DBH}}^{2} /\left( {{\text{a}} + {\text{b}} \times {\text{DBH}} + {\text{c}} \times {\text{DBH}}^{2} } \right) $$ are recommended as suitable models for describing the height–diameter relationship of P. euphratica. The limitations of other models showing poor performance in predicting tree height are discussed. We provide explanations for these shortcomings.

Carbon Sequestration Potential in Stands under the Grain for Green Program in Southwest China.

The Grain for Green Program (GGP) is the largest afforestation and reforestation project in China in the early part of this century. To assess carbon sequestration in stands under the GGP in Southwest China, the carbon stocks and their annual changes in the GGP stands in the region were estimated based on the following information: (1) collected data on the annually planted area of each tree species under the GGP in Southwest China from 1999 to 2010; (2) development of empirical growth curves and corresponding carbon estimation models for each species growing in the GPP stands; and (3) parameters associated with the stands such as wood density, biomass expansion factor, carbon fraction and the change rate of soil organic carbon content. Two forest management scenarios were examined: scenario A, with no harvesting, and scenario B, with logging at the customary rotation followed by replanting. The results showed that by the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060, the expected carbon storage of the GGP stands in Southwest China is 139.58 TgC, 177.50–207.55 TgC, 196.86–259.65 TgC, 240.45–290.62 TgC and 203.22–310.03 TgC (T = 1012), respectively. For the same years, the expected annual change in carbon stocks is 7.96 TgCyr−1, −7.95–5.95 TgCyr−1, −0.10–4.67 TgCyr−1, 4.31–2.24 TgCyr−1 and −0.02–1.75 TgCyr−1, respectively. This indicates that the stands significantly contribute to forest carbon sinks in this region. In 2060, the estimated carbon stocks in the seven major species of GGP stands in Southwest China are 4.16–13.01 TgC for Pinus armandii, 6.30–15.01 TgC for Pinus massoniana, 11.51–13.44 TgC for Cryptomeria fortunei, 15.94–24.13 TgC for Cunninghamia lanceolata, 28.05 TgC for Cupressus spp., 5.32–15.63 TgC for Populus deltoides and 5.87–14.09 TgC for Eucalyptus spp. The carbon stocks in these seven species account for 36.8%–41.4% of the total carbon stocks in all GGP stands over the next 50 years.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest ecosystems over the future.

Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Modeling radionuclide Cs and C dynamics in an artificial forest ecosystem in Japan -FoRothCs ver1.0-

Predicting the environmental fate of Cs radionuclides in forest ecosystems is important for the effective management and assessment of radioactively contaminated forest areas. A large proportion of the radioactively contaminated areas in Japan consist of forest ecosystems, and most of these areas are artificial forests that are used for timber production (e.g., Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) and red pine (Pinus densiflora)). Determining the long-term redistribution of 137Cs in forest ecosystems is important for estimating human doses and understanding the ecological impacts and challenges associated with managing contaminated forests. To facilitate the management and 137Cs decontamination of these forests, we developed a new open-source 137Cs cycling model, ForRothCs, that considers C cycling within forests, as well as biomass production and soil decomposition processes. For the 137Cs inventory, this model estimates the dynamics (Bq m−2) and activity (Bq kg−2) of 137Cs on a decadal time scale, primarily in the leaves, branches, stems, litter layer, and the soil. This model is based on the biomass production and the dynamics of the C cycle models. We tested the model by considering a simple scenario of forest management, i.e., thinning and harvesting, for the first five years following a fallout event. The results showed that these activities have a limited impact on the 137Cs inventory due to the rapid migration of 137Cs from vegetation to soil. Our projections also showed the examined forest management practices resulted in reduced litterfall, which in turn reduced C input to the forest floor and increased the concentration of 137Cs in the litterfall and soil organic layer. Although further validation of the ForRothCs model is required using field observation data, the model can be used to evaluate long-term 137Cs dynamics associated with commonly used forest and decontamination management scenarios.

Assessing forest management scenarios on an Aboriginal territory through simulation modeling

The dominant management strategy in boreal forests—aggregated clearcuts (AC)—faces increased criticism by various stakeholders, including Aboriginal people. Two alternative strategies have been proposed: dispersed clearcuts (DC) and ecosystem-based management (EM). We modelled the long-term and landscape-scale effects of AC, DC, and EM on a set of indicators of sustainable forest management relevant to an Aboriginal community's values: (1) forest age structure; (2) spatial configuration of forest stands; (3) road network density; and, (4) forest habitat loss to clearcuts. EM created a forest age structure closer to what would result from a natural disturbance regime, compared to AC and DC. Cut blocks were more evenly distributed with EM and DC. The road network density was lower and increased slower with EM, thus reducing the potential for conflicts between forest users. Under EM, a higher forest cover was maintained (and thus potential wildlife habitat) than in AC or DC. The EM scenario provided the best outcome based on the four measured indicators, partly because the constraints imposed on the modeling exercise led it to harvest less than the other scenarios. Annual allowable cut should thus be a key factor to consider to ensuring better compliance with Aboriginal criteria of sustainable forest management.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Effects of climate change and management on net climate impacts of production and utilization of energy biomass in Norway spruce with stable age‐class distribution

AbstractWe studied the effects of climate change and forest management scenarios on net climate impacts (radiative forcing) of production and utilization of energy biomass, in a Norway spruce forest area over an 80‐year simulation period in Finnish boreal conditions. A stable age‐class distribution was used in model‐based analyses to identify purely the management effects under the current and changing climate (SRES B1 and A2 scenarios). The radiative forcing was calculated based on an integrated use of forest ecosystem model simulations and a life cycle assessment (LCA) tool. In this work, forest‐based energy was used to substitute coal, and current forest management (baseline management) was used as a reference management. In alternative management scenarios, the stocking was maintained 20% higher in thinning compared to the baseline management, and nitrogen fertilization was applied. Intensity of energy biomass harvest (e.g. logging residues, coarse roots and stumps) was varied in the final felling of the stands at the age of 80 years. Also, the economic profitability (NPV, 3% interest rate) of integrated production of timber and energy biomass was calculated for each management scenario. Our results showed that compared to the baseline management, climate benefits could be increased by maintaining higher stocking in thinning over rotation, using nitrogen fertilization and harvesting logging residues, stumps and coarse roots in the final felling. Under the gradually changing climate (in both SRES B1 and A2), the climate benefits were lower compared to the current climate. Trade‐offs between NPV and net climate impacts also existed.

Participatory and multi-criteria analysis for forest (ecosystem) management: A case study of Pohorje, Slovenia

The primary aims of forest management are to rank and evaluate the effects of forest management scenarios on human communities, landscapes, and the development of forest services, and to achieve a balance between the economic, environmental, social, and cultural uses of forests. Multi-criteria decision methodology offers an effective alternative to address such forest management issues, particularly if they involve multiple stakeholders – including local communities, public representatives, and environmentalists – each of which possess different knowledge, experiences, and prospects. Group methods, based on participatory planning, can be applied to integrate such different interests into an optimal, joint decision. It is for this reason that a new decision model based on a group fuzzy analytic network process was designed. In a case study of the forest area at Pohorje, Slovenia, alternative development scenarios were evaluated by means of the generated model. Six possible management scenarios defined by sustainability indicators were identified. The scenarios were compared and assessed by several stakeholders according to the results of a SWOT analysis. The results reveal that most attention should be devoted to preserved nature, cultural heritage, and local tradition.