Addressing the escalating challenges of climate change necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing carbon sequestration rates (CSRs) in forest ecosystems. Although the impact of various biotic factors, environmental, and anthropogenic factors on CSRs over different time scales is well recognized, their precise roles remain poorly defined. This study aims to clarify the mechanistic relationships between CSRs and these factors in large-scale natural temperate forests in northeastern China. We employed linear mixed-effects models and piecewise structural equation models were to analyze data from 310 vegetation plots, assessing the effects of biotic factors (including multidimensional diversity, structural diversity, and community-weighted mean (CWM) trait values) and abiotic factors (climate, topography, and anthropogenic disturbances) across different forest types and successional stages. Our analysis tested a series of hypotheses to identify the principal drivers of forest CSRs. The results indicate that while functional composition and standard environmental factors such as mean annual temperature and slope are significant, their influence is markedly less than that of biodiversity (encompassing multidimensional and structural diversity) and anthropogenic disturbance (as measured by the Human Modification Index). These findings support the dominance of the niche complementarity theory and the moderate disturbance hypothesis, with their importance increasing over time. Furthermore, this study advocates for forest management strategies that are specifically tailored to the unique characteristics of mixed and dense forests at different stages of succession. By elucidating the complex relationships between ecological variables and CSRs, our findings provide critical insights for the development of effective strategies aimed at optimizing forest carbon sequestration. This study underscores the necessity of integrating sustainable forest management with the conservation of ecological biodiversity.
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