Forest Disturbance Regimes Research Articles

Fern Species Richness and Diversity in the Forest Ecosystems of Papua New Guinea

This study aims to analyze the occurrence and composition of ferns along an elevational gradient and among different forest types and disturbance regimes in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The assessment was conducted using the monitoring protocol of the National Forest Inventory. The investigation revealed a high richness of ferns, with 122 species or morphospecies from 51 genera and 21 families. Among them, 81 species were terrestrial and 16 were epiphytes. The project also highlighted increasing richness with elevation, both for terrestrial and epiphytic ferns. Reflecting other environmental variables, elevation was a significant proxy factor in determining the taxonomic composition. Lowland forest was clearly differentiated from the montane one, which was characterized by epiphytic species from the Drynaria and Ctenopteris genera. Lowland disturbed and primary forests were slightly differentiated in terms of fern composition, the latter characterized by sciophilous species belonging to the Polypodium, Microlepia, and Pronephrium genera and the former mainly by species of the Gleichenia genus adapted to forest margins and gaps. The research points to the richness of ferns in PNG and their effectiveness as a potential indicator to characterize and monitor forest types and their conservation status with respect to a disturbance regime. In the future, studies should aim to increase species sampling in abundance and seek precision in understanding species response variables in diverse forest regimes.

A legacy of fire emerges from multiple disturbances to most shape microbial and nitrogen dynamics in a deciduous forest

Healthy forests are vital components of terrestrial ecosystems for their raw materials, high biodiversity, cycling of nutrients, and potential to sequester carbon. However, these ecosystems are sensitive to disturbances, and anthropogenic activities pose a serious threat to forest ecosystems globally. For example, human activities have dramatically altered multiple historical disturbance regimes in forests, including suppressing fire, increasing the density of large herbivores, and reducing the size of canopy gaps, among other disturbances. Such disturbances can have dramatic impacts on microbially-mediated forest soil functions, but more research is needed to determine the collective impacts of these disturbances. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of disturbances, namely the legacies of fire, large herbivore densities, and canopy gap creation, in a deciduous forest soil. We determined that forest floor and mineral soil carbon and nitrogen pools were shaped by multiple disturbances, but fire was more influential than the other disturbances. The abundance of several functionally-relevant microbial taxa were significantly impacted by fire, and the effect was more pronounced in the mineral soil than in the forest floor. Together, these findings demonstrate that multiple disturbances, especially a legacy of fire, exerts long-term control over soil carbon, nitrogen and microbial dynamics in a deciduous forest system.

Outbreaks of Douglas-Fir Beetle Follow Western Spruce Budworm Defoliation in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA

Changes in climate are altering disturbance regimes in forests of western North America, leading to increases in the potential for disturbance events to overlap in time and space. Though interactions between abiotic and biotic disturbance (e.g., the effect of bark beetle outbreak on subsequent wildfire) have been widely studied, interactions between multiple biotic disturbances are poorly understood. Defoliating insects, such as the western spruce budworm (WSB; Choristoneura freemanni), have been widely suggested to predispose trees to secondary colonization by bark beetles, such as the Douglas-fir beetle (DFB; Dendroctonus pseudotsugae). However, there is little quantitative research that supports this observation. Here, we asked: Does previous WSB damage increase the likelihood of subsequent DFB outbreak in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA? To quantify areas affected by WSB and then DFB, we analyzed Aerial Detection Survey data from 1999–2019. We found that a DFB presence followed WSB defoliation more often than expected under a null model (i.e., random distribution). With climate change expected to intensify some biotic disturbances, an understanding of the interactions between insect outbreaks is important for forest management planning, as well as for improving our understanding of forest change.

Ground-Truthing Forest Change Detection Algorithms in Working Forests of the US Northeast

Abstract The need for reliable landscape-scale monitoring of forest disturbance has grown with increased policy and regulatory attention to promoting the climate benefits of forests. Change detection algorithms based on satellite imagery can address this need but are largely untested for the forest types and disturbance regimes of the US Northeast, including management practices common in northern hardwoods and mixed hardwood-conifer forests. This study ground-truthed the “off-the-shelf” outputs of three satellite-based change detection algorithms using detailed harvest records and maps covering 43,000 ha of working forests in northeastern New York.

Gap dynamics and disease-causing invasive species drive the development of an old-growth forest over 250 years

Investigating the disturbance regimes of unharvested forests helps us understand their past, present, and future trajectory and gives us a model for forest management. It can also clarify the relative importance of small-scale gap dynamics versus more severe disturbances. Here we used tree rings to examine the recruitment patterns, growth dynamics, and disturbance chronologies of American beech (Fagus grandifolia), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) in A.B. Williams Woods, an old-growth forest in Ohio, USA, over the past 250 years. We found that beech and sugar maple recruitment peaked around 1900 and continued through the 1900s, while hemlock recruitment peaked during 1825–1875, then declined and effectively ended in the early 1900s. Hemlock grew fastest during the 1800s according to ring width and basal area increment, while sugar maple ring width surpassed beech and hemlock in the 1900s. All three species showed a dramatic increase in growth from 1980 to 2010. Beech and sugar maple established regardless of canopy gaps, but 73% of hemlocks originated in gaps. In most decades, <10% of trees experienced gap recruitment or growth release, suggesting that ongoing, endogenous canopy mortality was the primary disturbance shaping this forest. However, a more severe forest-wide disturbance occurred during the 1980s–1990s when the scale insect causing beech bark disease was introduced, with greater than 30% of living trees showing growth releases in those decades. Another synchronous release occurred in the 1930s when blight-killed chestnuts were removed; 16% of trees showed releases. Both of these intermediate-severity disturbances involved human introduction of invasive species. Thus, we documented a natural disturbance regime of small-scale gap dynamics, punctuated by more severe anthropogenic disturbances in the twentieth century. These relatively frequent, intermediate-severity events probably mean that the forest’s current composition is non-equilibrial. Hemlock may continue to decline while beech maintains its dominance by constant regeneration in both gaps and shade, and by responding to disturbance with root suckering and growth pulses. The codominance of sugar maple may be relatively recent, and perhaps temporary, as we found little sugar maple recruitment before 1875 or after 1950, and three times fewer sugar maple saplings now than in the early 1900s. Despite being protected as a park, the development of this old-growth forest has been shaped more by disease-causing invasive species than natural disturbances over the past century. This result emphasizes the pervasiveness of human impacts even in communities we look to as examples of natural pattern and process.

Drought years promote bark beetle outbreaks in Mexican forests of Abies religiosa and Pinus pseudostrobus

Climate change is an important risk factor for forest ecosystems through alteration of forest disturbance regimes such as bark beetle outbreaks, which in some places now are more successfully attacking host trees weakened by hotter drought events. In Mexico, ties between climate and amplified outbreaks of bark beetles have begun to be documented, although these relationships are not entirely clear. This project aims to identify the geographic patterning and relations between climate and bark beetle outbreaks in Abies religiosa and Pinus pseudostrobus populations located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt region. We used: 1) a database of phytosanitary logging authorizations and locations issued to enable salvage logging of trees infested or killed by bark beetle outbreaks from 2009 to 2018; 2) a previously developed gridded database of contemporary suitable climatic habitat of these tree species that will be lost by 2060 to determine if outbreaks occurred in sites with climatic habitat lost; and 3) elevation values to determine if outbreaks occur at xeric limits (drought limits) of tree hosts. Climate analysis was conducted with TerraClimate data using PDSI (Palmer’s Drought Severity Index) values. We find that bark beetle outbreaks do not necessarily occur at sites where models project that both species will lose suitable climatic habitat. For A. religiosa (Sacred Fir), of the 4091 ha treated by sanitary logging, 40% occurs between 3000 and 3100 m of elevation, where the pure and relatively better-preserved Sacred Fir stands are found. For P. pseudostrobus, more than 54% of the sanitary logging area (4664 ha) ranges from 2200 to 2400 m a.s.l., which coincides with the lower elevation limit (xeric limit) of the natural distribution of the species. Regarding relationships with PDSI, for A. religiosa there was a one-year lag between the year of mortality (expressed by the year of the phytosanitary logging authorization) and the year with the most negative (driest) PDSI anomaly (one year before), while for Pinus pseudostrobus, phytosanitary logging authorizations were concentrated in the driest year. An investigation that considers more variables, especially anthropogenic factors, is necessary to be able to better understand the dynamics of forest pests and prevent unusual outbreaks induced by expected climate-change-amplified droughts.

Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe

Abstract. Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018, compounding with an extensive heat wave in the same and subsequent years. Here we provide a first assessment of the impacts this compounding event had on forest disturbance regimes in Europe. We find that the 2018 drought caused unprecedented levels of forest disturbance across large parts of Europe, persisting up to 2 years post-drought. The 2018 drought pushed forest disturbance regimes in Europe to the edge of their past range of variation, especially in central and eastern Europe. Increased levels of forest disturbance were associated with low soil water availability in 2018 and were further modulated by high vapor pressure deficit from 2018 to 2020. We also document the emergence of novel spatiotemporal disturbance patterns following the 2018 drought (i.e., more and larger disturbances, occurring with higher spatiotemporal autocorrelation) that will have long-lasting impacts on forest structure and raise concerns about a potential loss of forest resilience. We conclude that the 2018 drought had unprecedented impacts on forest disturbance regimes in Europe, highlighting the urgent need to adapt Europe's forests to a hotter and drier future with more disturbance.

The impact of natural disturbance dynamics on lichen diversity and composition in primary mountain spruce forests

AbstractAimNatural disturbances influence forest structure, successional dynamics and consequently, the distribution of species through time and space. We quantified the long‐term impacts of natural disturbances on lichen species richness and composition in primary mountain forests, with a particular focus on the occurrence of endangered species.LocationTen primary mountain spruce forest stands across five mountain chains of the Western Carpathians, a European hotspot of biodiversity.MethodsLiving trees, snags and downed logs were surveyed for epiphytic and epixylic lichens in 57 plots. Using reconstructed disturbance history, we tested how lichen species richness and composition was affected by the current forest structure and disturbance regimes in the past 250 years. We also examined differences in community composition among discrete microhabitats.ResultsDead standing trees as biological legacies of natural disturbances promoted lichen species richness and the occurrence of threatened species at the plot scale, suggesting improved growing conditions for rare and common lichens during the early stages of recovery post disturbance. However, high‐severity disturbances compromised plot‐scale species richness. Both species richness and the number of old‐growth specialists increased with time since disturbance (i.e., long‐term uninterrupted succession). No lichen species was strictly dependent on live trees as a habitat, but numerous species showed specificity to logs, standing objects or an admixture of tree species.ConclusionsLichen species richness was lower in regenerating, young and uniform plots compared with overmature and recently disturbed areas. Natural forest dynamics and its legacies are critical to the diversity and species composition of lichens. Spatio‐temporal consequences of natural dynamics require a sufficient area of protected forests for provisioning continual habitat variability at the landscape scale. Ongoing climatic changes may further accentuate this necessity. Hence, we highlighted the need to protect the last remaining primary forests to ensure the survival of regionally unique species pools of lichens.

Indirect effects mediate direct effects of climate warming on insect disturbance regimes of temperate broadleaf forests in the central U.S.

Abstract Climate warming directly affects insect disturbance regimes by altering temperature‐dependent population development. Indirect effects of climate change on insect disturbance may mediate or accelerate direct effects via vegetation feedback (e.g. host tree demographic dynamics). However, such indirect effects have rarely been incorporated in predicting insect disturbance regimes. We included both direct and indirect effects in a forest landscape modelling framework to simulate red oak borer [ROB, Enaphalodes rufulus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)] disturbance regimes under a warming climate from 2000 to 2150 in the Central Hardwood Forests, U.S. We quantified effect sizes and relative importance of direct effects and indirect effects of warming climate on the ROB disturbance using a factorial experimental design and two‐way ANOVA. Both direct and indirect effects acted positively in the short and medium term (e.g. 0–100 years) while the effect size of indirect effects changed over time from positive (+30.9 kha) to negative (−17.3 kha) and mediated the positive direct effects in the long term (e.g. 100–150 years). Direct effects had greater influence than indirect effects on ROB disturbed areas in the short term (e.g. &lt;50 years), whereas indirect effects were more important (ω2 = 0.38 vs. 0.26) in the long term. This was because the host tree abundance significantly declined over time under warming climates, which decreased the forest susceptibility to ROB and thus overrode the outbreak‐promoting effects of warming climates in the long term. Synthesis and applications. This study reveals indirect effects of warming climates mediate direct effects on insect disturbance regimes by altering primary host tree demographic dynamics. We highlight that indirect effects are important in understanding insect disturbance regimes under warming climates as they may mediate or even reverse the expectation of increased insect disturbance. Long‐term predictions of insect disturbance without considering indirect effects may overestimate its impacts under warming climates. Our findings also indicate that different management interventions are required at different time‐scales to maintain oak forests' health and sustainability in the U.S. central temperate broadleaf forests.

Resilience of a Fire-Maintained Pinus palustris Woodland to Catastrophic Wind Disturbance: 10 Year Results

Increased interest in ecosystem recovery and resilience has been driven by concerns over global change-induced shifts in forest disturbance regimes. In frequent-fire forests, catastrophic wind disturbances modify vegetation-fuels-fire feedbacks, and these alterations may shift species composition and stand structure to alternative states relative to pre-disturbance conditions. We established permanent inventory plots in a catastrophically wind-disturbed and fire-maintained Pinus palustris woodland in the Alabama Fall Line Hills to examine ecosystem recovery and model the successional and developmental trajectory of the stand through age 50 years. We found that sapling height was best explained by species. Species with the greatest mean heights likely utilized different regeneration mechanisms. The simulation model projected that at age 50 years, the stand would transition to be mixedwood and dominated by Quercus species, Pinus taeda, and P. palustris. The projected successional pathway is likely a function of residual stems that survived the catastrophic wind disturbance and modification of vegetation-fuels-fire feedbacks. Although silvicultural interventions will be required for this system to exhibit pre-disturbance species composition and structure, we contend that the ecosystem was still resilient to the catastrophic disturbance because similar silvicultural treatments were required to create and maintain the P. palustris woodland prior to the disturbance event.

Natural disturbance regimes for implementation of ecological forestry: a review and case study from Nova Scotia, Canada

Ecological forestry is based on the idea that forest patterns and processes are more likely to persist if harvest strategies produce stand structures, return intervals, and severities similar to those from natural disturbances. Taylor et al. (2020) reviewed forest natural disturbance regimes in Nova Scotia, Canada, to support implementation of ecological forestry. In this follow-up paper, we (i) review the use of natural disturbance regimes to determine target harvest rotations, age structures, and residual stand structures; and (ii) describe a novel approach for use of natural disturbance regimes in ecological forestry developed for Nova Scotia. Most examples of ecological forestry consider only the local, dominant disturbance agent, such as fire in boreal regions. Our approach included: (i) using current ecological land classification to map potential natural vegetation (PNV) community types; (ii) determining cumulative natural disturbance effects of all major disturbances, in our case fire, hurricanes, windstorm, and insect outbreaks for each PNV; and (iii) using natural disturbance regime parameters to derive guidelines for ecological forestry for each PNV. We analyzed disturbance occurrence and return intervals based on low, moderate, and high severity classes (&lt;30, 30–60, and &gt;60% of biomass of living trees killed, respectively), which were used to determine mean annual disturbance rates by severity class. Return intervals were used to infer target stand age-class distributions for high, moderate, and low severity disturbances for each PNV. The range of variation in rates of high severity disturbances among PNVs was from 0.28%·year–1 in Tolerant Hardwood to 2.1%·year–1 in the Highland Fir PNV, equating to return intervals of 357 years in Tolerant Hardwood to 48 years in Highland Fir PNVs. As an example, this return interval for the Tolerant Hardwood PNV resulted in target rotation lengths of 200 years for 35% of the PNV area, 500 years for 40%, and 1000 years for 25%. The proposed approach of determining natural disturbance regimes for PNV communities and calculating target disturbance rates and corresponding harvest rotation lengths or entry times appears to be a feasible method to guide ecological forestry in any region with a strong ecological land classification system and multiple disturbance agents.

Mapping the probability of forest snow disturbances in Finland.

The changing forest disturbance regimes emphasize the need for improved damage risk information. Here, our aim was to (1) improve the current understanding of snow damage risks by assessing the importance of abiotic factors, particularly the modelled snow load on trees, versus forest properties in predicting the probability of snow damage, (2) produce a snow damage probability map for Finland. We also compared the results for winters with typical snow load conditions and a winter with exceptionally heavy snow loads. To do this, we used damage observations from the Finnish national forest inventory (NFI) to create a statistical snow damage occurrence model, spatial data layers from different sources to use the model to predict the damage probability for the whole country in 16 x 16 m resolution. Snow damage reports from forest owners were used for testing the final map. Our results showed that best results were obtained when both abiotic and forest variables were included in the model. However, in the case of the high snow load winter, the model with only abiotic predictors performed nearly as well as the full model and the ability of the models to identify the snow damaged stands was higher than in other years. The results showed patterns of forest adaptation to high snow loads, as spruce stands in the north were less susceptible to damage than in southern areas and long-term snow load reduced the damage probability. The model and the derived wall-to-wall map were able to discriminate damage from no-damage cases on a good level (AUC > 0.7). The damage probability mapping approach identifies the drivers of snow disturbances across forest landscapes and can be used to spatially estimate the current and future disturbance probabilities in forests, informing practical forestry and decision-making and supporting the adaptation to the changing disturbance regimes.

Temporal Dynamics of Root Reinforcement in European Spruce Forests

The quantification of post-disturbance root reinforcement (RR) recovery dynamics is of paramount importance for the optimisation of forest ecosystem services and natural hazards risk management in mountain regions. In this work we analyse the long-term root reinforcement dynamic of spruce forests combining data of the Swiss National Forest Inventory with data on root distribution and root mechanical properties. The results show that root reinforcement recovery depends primarily on stand altitude and slope inclination. The maximum root reinforcement recovery rate is reached at circa 100 years. RR increases continuously with different rates for stand ages over 200 years. These results shows that RR in spruce stands varies considerably depending on the local conditions and that its recovery after disturbances requires decades. The new method applied in this study allowed for the first time to quantify the long term dynamics of RR in spruce stands supporting new quantitative approaches for the analysis of shallow landslides disposition in different disturbance regimes of forests.

Storm and fire disturbances in Europe: Distribution and trends.

Abiotic forest disturbances are an important driver of ecosystem dynamics. In Europe, storms and fires have been identified as the most important abiotic disturbances in the recent past. Yet, how strongly these agents drive local disturbance regimes compared to other agents (e.g., biotic, human) remains unresolved. Furthermore, whether storms and fires are responsible for the observed increase in forest disturbances in Europe is debated. Here, we provide quantitative evidence for the prevalence of storm and fire disturbances in Europe 1986-2016. For 27 million disturbance patches mapped from satellite data, we determined whether they were caused by storm or fire, using a random forest classifier and a large reference dataset of true disturbance occurrences. We subsequently analyzed patterns of disturbance prevalence (i.e., the share of an agent on the overall area disturbed) in space and time. Storm- and fire-related disturbances each accounted for approximately 7% of all disturbances recorded in Europe in the period 1986-2016. Storm-related disturbances were most prevalent in western and central Europe, where they locally accounted for >50% of all disturbances, but we also identified storm-related disturbances in south-eastern and eastern Europe. Fire-related disturbances were a major disturbance agent in southern and south-eastern Europe, but fires also occurred in eastern and northern Europe. The prevalence and absolute area of storm-related disturbances increased over time, whereas no trend was detected for fire-related disturbances. Overall, we estimate an average of 127,716 (97,680-162,725) ha of storm-related disturbances per year and an average of 141,436 (107,353-181,022) ha of fire-related disturbances per year. We conclude that abiotic disturbances caused by storm and fire are important drivers of forest dynamics in Europe, but that their influence varies substantially by region. Our analysis further suggests that increasing storm-related disturbances are an important driver of Europe's changing forest disturbance regimes.

Human or natural? Landscape context improves the attribution of forest disturbances mapped from Landsat in Central Europe

Disturbances have increased in Central Europe's forests, but whether changes in disturbance regimes are driven by natural or human causes remains unclear. Satellite-based remote sensing provides an important data source for quantifying forest disturbance change. Separating causes of forest disturbance is challenging, however, particularly in areas such as Central Europe where disturbance patches are small and disturbance agents interact strongly. Here we present a novel approach for the causal attribution of forest disturbance agents and illustrate its utility for 1.01 million disturbance patches mapped from Landsat data in Austria for the period 1986–2016. We gathered reference data on 2620 disturbance patches by conducting targeted field observations and structured interviews with 21 forest managers. We developed a novel indicator class characterizing the landscape context of a disturbance patch (i.e., the spatio-temporal autocorrelation of disturbance patches on the landscape), and combined it with other predictor variables describing the spectral signal, topography, and patch form of each disturbance patch. We used these predictors to identify the causal agents for disturbances mapped in Austria using Random Forest classification. Landscape context was the most important predictor of disturbance agent, improving model performance by up to 26 percentage points. Wind, bark beetles and timber harvesting were separated with an overall accuracy of 63%. Bark beetle patches were most difficult to identify correctly (producer's accuracy = 15%, user's accuracy = 30%), while regular timber harvesting was classified with highest certainty (producer's accuracy = 68%, user's accuracy = 82%). Harvesting dominates the disturbance regime of Austria's forests, with 70.5% of the disturbed area (76.7% of the disturbed patches) attributed to human causes and 29.5% (23.3%) to natural causes (wind: 23.0% [14.8%], bark beetles: 6.5% [8.5%]). Increases in disturbance since 1986 were driven by natural causes, with wind increasing by 408% and bark beetles increasing by 99% between the first and the second half of the observation period. Wind-disturbed patches were also considerably larger than those caused by bark beetles and harvesting (+102% and + 67%, respectively). Our novel approach to mapping causal agents of forest disturbance, applicable also to highly complex and interactive disturbance regimes, provides an important step towards a comprehensive monitoring and management of forest disturbances in a changing world.

Respiration of Russian soils: Climatic drivers and response to climate change

Soil respiration is one of the major ecosystem carbon fluxes and has a strong relationship with climate. We quantified this dependence for the Russian territory based on coupling climate data and in-situ soil respiration (Rs) measurements compiled into a database from the literature using regression and random forest models. The analysis showed that soil properties are a strong factor that mediates the climate effect on Rs. The vegetation class determines the contribution of the autotrophic respiration to the total Rs flux. The heterotrophic soil respiration efflux of Russia was estimated to be 3.2 Pg C yr−1 or 190 g C m−2 yr−1, which is 9–20% higher than most previously reported estimates. According to our modeling, heterotrophic soil respiration is expected to rise by 12% on average by 2050 according to the RCP2.6 climate scenario and at 10% based on RCP6. The total for Russia may reach 3.5 Pg C yr−1 by 2050. By the end of the century heterotrophic respiration may reach 3.6 Pg C yr−1 (+13%) and 4.3 Pg C yr−1 (+34%) based on RCP2.6 and RCP6, respectively. In order to understand to what extent the lack of information on disturbances impact contributes to uncertainty of our model, we analyzed a few available publications and expert estimates. Taking into account the specifics of Russian forest management and regional disturbance regimes, we have found that for the entire territory of Russia, the disturbances are responsible for an increase in heterotrophic soil respiration by less than 2%.

Distribution of Woody Plant Species Among Different Disturbance Regimes of Forests in a Temperate Deciduous Broad-Leaved Forest

Forests in different disturbance regimes provide diverse microhabitats for species growth. However, whether the species distribution of wood plant is random or follows ecological specialization among forests in different disturbance regimes remains to be elucidated. In this study, four 1 hm2 (100 m × 100 m) forest dynamic monitoring plots in different disturbance regimes of forests were randomly selected in a temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest. We examined the specificity of woody plants to forests through network analysis. Torus-translation test was used to analyze the species distribution preference of woody plants to forests in different disturbance regimes. The specialization index of woody plants was 0.3126, and that of shrubs (51.01%) was higher than that of trees (25.16%). Moreover, 66.67% (38/57) of woody plants were associated with different forests. More shrub species (70.00%) had specific preferences than tree species (45.95%) with respect to forests in different disturbance regimes. Our findings suggest that the distribution of woody plants among forests with different disturbance regimes is not random but is specialized. Different woody plants show different community preferences in different disturbance regimes of forests. Shrubs show higher specialization than trees in different disturbance regimes of forests.

Economic losses from natural disturbances in Norway spruce forests – A quantification using Monte-Carlo simulations

Changing forest disturbance regimes pose a major challenge for current day forestry. Yet our understanding of the economic impacts of disturbances remains incomplete. Existing valuations of losses from natural disturbances commonly exclude extreme events and neglect impacts on standing timber. Here we develop a new methodology to assess the economic impact of natural disturbances addressing these limitations. We couple an empirical function of forest growth with survival modelling for the example of Norway spruce (Picea abies), using Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify the economic losses from natural disturbances. We illustrate the effect of extreme disturbance events by analyzing the lowest (worst) 5% of simulated economic returns. Ranging between € −2,611 and −34,416 per hectare, disturbance-induced economic losses varied greatly, depending on the valuation approach applied. Accounting for extreme events and disturbance impacts on standing timber resulted in 262–1218% higher losses compared to damages derived with common valuation approaches that neglect these aspects. Furthermore, we demonstrate that refraining from salvage logging after extreme disturbances does not necessarily result in major economic losses for forest owners, indicating a potential cost-effective avenue to improve forest biodiversity. Our approach presents an important step towards quantifying the economic impacts of changing forest disturbance regimes.

Producing wood at least cost to biodiversity: integrating Triad and sharing-sparing approaches to inform forest landscape management.

Forest loss and degradation are the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide. Rising global wood demand threatens further damage to remaining native forests. Contrasting solutions across a continuum of options have been proposed, yet which of these offers most promise remains unresolved. Expansion of high-yielding tree plantations could free up forest land for conservation provided this is implemented in tandem with stronger policies for conserving native forests. Because plantations and other intensively managed forests often support far less biodiversity than native forests, a second approach argues for widespread adoption of extensive management, or 'ecological forestry', which better simulates natural forest structure and disturbance regimes - albeit with compromised wood yields and hence a need to harvest over a larger area. A third, hybrid suggestion involves 'Triad' zoning where the landscape is divided into three sorts of management (reserve, ecological/extensive management, and intensive plantation). Progress towards resolving which of these approaches holds the most promise has been hampered by the absence of a conceptual framework and of sufficient empirical data formally to identify the most appropriate landscape-scale proportions of reserves, extensive, and intensive management to minimize biodiversity impacts while meeting a given level of demand for wood. In this review, we argue that this central challenge for sustainable forestry is analogous to that facing food-production systems, and that the land sharing-sparing framework devised to establish which approach to farming could meet food demand at least cost to wild species can be readily adapted to assess contrasting forest management regimes. We develop this argument in four ways: (i) we set out the relevance of the sharing-sparing framework for forestry and explore the degree to which concepts from agriculture can translate to a forest management context; (ii) we make design recommendations for empirical research on sustainable forestry to enable application of the sharing-sparing framework; (iii) we present overarching hypotheses which such studies could test; and (iv) we discuss potential pitfalls and opportunities in conceptualizing landscape management through a sharing-sparing lens. The framework we propose will enable forest managers worldwide to assess trade-offs directly between conservation and wood production and to determine the mix of management approaches that best balances these (and other) competing objectives. The results will inform ecologically sustainable forest policy and management, reduce risks of local and global extinctions from forestry, and potentially improve a valuable sector's social license to operate.

Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests

Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth’s climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of European forests to fires, windthrows and insect outbreaks during the period 1979–2018 by integrating machine learning with disturbance data and satellite products. We show that about 33.4 billion tonnes of forest biomass could be seriously affected by these disturbances, with higher relative losses when exposed to windthrows (40%) and fires (34%) compared to insect outbreaks (26%). The spatial pattern in vulnerability is strongly controlled by the interplay between forest characteristics and background climate. Hotspot regions for vulnerability are located at the borders of the climate envelope, in both southern and northern Europe. There is a clear trend in overall forest vulnerability that is driven by a warming-induced reduction in plant defence mechanisms to insect outbreaks, especially at high latitudes.