Foresight Studies Research Articles

Do statistics need foresight?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between foresight and official statistics in the context of sustainability and big-data. The aim is to draw ideas, guidance and lessons on how foresight could help national and international statistical offices deal with an increasingly turbulent and demanding environment.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities posed by big data and sustainability for official statistics.FindingsDrawing on the analysis of the BOHEMIA study – a foresight study launched by the European Commission to support its future policy for research and innovation – the paper proposes elements that could form a foresight programme for statistical offices.Originality/valueStatistical offices and foresight have been worlds apart. The need to engage with each other is a recent and interesting phenomenon.

The future of governance in Iran

PurposeThrough an examination of macro-historical studies on the governance of Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the most significant and important events and trends in the rise and fall of Iranian governments and introduce alternative futures in a range of possible, plausible and preferable forms of future governance. To carry out a foresight study of alternative futures of Iranian governance, the authors used futures studies, based on the detection of the most critical driving forces, which are also the most important uncertainties. Futures studies as an interdisciplinary field of study help to identify the events and trends that affect political change and offer scenarios of four alternative futures for the governance of Iran: Smart and Stable Government, Authoritarian Development-oriented Government, Irrational Government and Irrational Breakable Government. The authors believe that Iran’s endeavors to promote democracy, taking the changing international trends into account, make a more trustworthy future for Iran both possible plausible.Design/methodology/approachBased on macro-history approach and by using “shared history”, future triangle and then scenario planning, the future of Governance in Iran has been analyzed.FindingsWhenever the government has distanced itself from the public and has neglected the trend of international change, it has been faced with a period of collapse and annihilation. And whenever these two important factors are understood, the result is a trend of development and growth. Therefore, the most favored image of Iran’s future relies on the maintenance and promotion of public participation and on increasing attention to the sustainable realities of international relations.Originality/valueThe complexities of events and trends affecting the rise and fall of previous governments of Iran make it necessary to use an interdisciplinary approach to understand the events that have emerged or are emerging in its governance. In this study, from futures studies point of view, transformation of governance has been studied.

A Study on Environmental Waste Management Practices: A Technology Foresight Perspective

Current rapid growth of the industrial sector is causing significant pollution of the environment and people’s surroundings. One of the biggest challenges in urban areas within Malaysia is managing solid waste, especially in areas where industries and housing estates are developing rapidly as the economy grows. The objective of this research is to identify trends in environmental waste management practices among manufacturing industries for the subsequent five years using a foresight study. This research uses qualitative methods. STEEPV analysis was used to identify issues and drivers based on the trends and issues, categorized under Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political and Values. Five interviews were conducted within manufacturing industries in Batu Pahat, Johor. Impact-uncertainty analysis was used to determine impacts and uncertainties regarding the determination of future waste management practices in Batu Pahat. The two key drivers with the most significant impact and uncertainty were determined to be environmental concerns and rapid industrialization. Four possible scenarios are highlighted in this study. In a nutshell, related parties such as the government, industrial companies and stakeholders should take initial steps to avoid the worsening of pollution and save the earth for the next generations.

Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods

Foresight studies provide essential information used by the government, industry and academia for technology planning and knowledge expansion. They are complicated, resource-intensive, and quite expensive. The approach, methods, and techniques must be carefully identified and selected. Despite the global importance of foresight activities, there are no frameworks to help one develop and plan a proper foresight study. This paper begins to close this gap by analyzing and comparing different schools of thought and updating the literature with the most current tools and methods. Data mining techniques are used to identify articles through an extensive literature review. Social Network Analysis (SNA) techniques are used to identify and analyze leading journals, articles, and researchers. A framework is developed here to provide a guide to help in the selection of methods and tools for different approaches.

Foresight studies in the field of land resources management

Foresight studies in the field of land resources management

The contribution of foresight to improve long-term security planning

PurposeDespite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex.FindingsCurrent security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.

Policy-adaptation for a smarter and more sustainable EU electricity distribution industry: a foresight analysis

The European Union (EU) transition to a smarter and more sustainable electricity sector is driven by climate change adaptation and technological developments. For the electricity distribution industry, this has contributed to a growing need to understand how these network monopolies should adapt their role, activities, and responsibilities for a redesigned electricity market, given the growth of distributed generation, and the increased control and monitoring capabilities. Considering this, a foresight study on business model innovation, technological adaptation, and market design policy alternatives is presented. A Policy Delphi method was applied, involving two iterative survey rounds and 207 European experts, which assessed 57 policy alternatives. The results highlight adaptation challenges for implementing new technologies and business practices. Experts support innovation and transition to new roles, and innovative services, while warranting that core electricity distribution activities are secured. This shift in roles is expected to be achieved through research and development (R&D) support policies, innovation friendly regulatory frameworks, and concerted actions at the EU and Member States level. The results provide policy-adaptation guidelines for electricity distribution industry stakeholders.

Technological Prospection on Membranes Containing Silver Nanoparticles for Water Disinfection.

Membrane separation is an established technological process, and since 1980s, it has been used commercially at large industrial plants worldwide. Water and wastewater disinfection is one of the applications of membrane technologies, but fouling and biofouling are still a challenge for the sector. The use of silver nanoparticles in membranes has attracted research interest because of their biocidal action. This technology foresight study investigates the academic literature and patenting activity to map out the technological progress and difficulties in the area. One hundred and sixty-seven articles on the subject published between 2005 and 2017 were retrieved, and it was found that the greatest number of publications were undertaken in 2016. A wide range of materials being used to make membranes and institutions involved in researching this technology were identified. Fifty-nine patents of relevance were also retrieved, with 2011 and 2013 seeing the highest number of patent applications filed. The countries with the most academic output and priority patents are the United States and China, but no institution stands out from the others in this area.

Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques

This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, namely computerised analysis of large volumes of unstructured text-based industry-relevant analytics. It comprises methodological results such as analytical decomposition of the trend concept, including trend attributes (inherent characteristics) and various trend types and empirical results of detection and classification of global technology trends in the agricultural sector. The study makes a significant contribution to the development of a conceptual apparatus for trend analysis as a sub-area of Foresight methodology. The agricultural field is used to demonstrate the application the methodology. The empirical results can be applied by federal and regional authorities responsible for promoting development of the sectors to design relevant strategies and programmes, and by companies to set their long-term marketing and investment priorities.

Intellectual Multi-Level System for Neuro-Fuzzy and Cognitive Analysis and Forecast of Scientific-Technological and Innovative Development

The article is devoted to description of structure and operation algorithms of a multilevel intellectual system for analysis and forecast of scientific-technological and innovative development of objects and territories based on expert methods, trainable models of fuzzy logic and fuzzy cognitive analysis. The article analyses distinctions and advantages of the system in making forecast evaluation and scenarios of the dynamics of multidimensional feature objects and processes. The authors have built a neutrosophic cognitive map for interaction of technologies based on the results of foresight studies.

New industrial platforms and radical technology foresight: the case of 3D printing in Finland and Europe

This article presents futures oriented analyses of 3D printing, which are based on technology foresight study performed in Finland in 2013. The methodological framework of the Finnish technology foresight study is shortly introduced and explained in this article. The analysis reflects current discussion about 3D printing technology options in Finland, as is reflected in report of Linturi et al. (2013, 2014). The analyses of 3D printing provided in this article are also linked to broader international and European context. TechCast study (Halal, 2013) and FutMan scenarios of JRC (Geyer et al., 2003a, 2003b) are elaborated. The analyses reveal several emerging aspects and bottlenecks of 3D printing and new industrial revolution. The emerging aspects are related to the rise of new technological possibilities and new production processes. The bottlenecks include issues such as lacking capacities and competencies of industrial actors in adopting new technological solutions, uncertainties in the efficiency and performance of 3D printing solutions, problematic of wider societal transition, and potential risks potentially generated by 3D printing systems and technologies.

New industrial platforms and radical technology foresight: the case of 3D printing in Finland and Europe

This article presents futures oriented analyses of 3D printing, which are based on technology foresight study performed in Finland in 2013. The methodological framework of the Finnish technology foresight study is shortly introduced and explained in this article. The analysis reflects current discussion about 3D printing technology options in Finland, as is reflected in report of Linturi et al. (2013, 2014). The analyses of 3D printing provided in this article are also linked to broader international and European context. TechCast study (Halal, 2013) and FutMan scenarios of JRC (Geyer et al., 2003a, 2003b) are elaborated. The analyses reveal several emerging aspects and bottlenecks of 3D printing and new industrial revolution. The emerging aspects are related to the rise of new technological possibilities and new production processes. The bottlenecks include issues such as lacking capacities and competencies of industrial actors in adopting new technological solutions, uncertainties in the efficiency and performance of 3D printing solutions, problematic of wider societal transition, and potential risks potentially generated by 3D printing systems and technologies.

An Ethical Analysis of Personal Health Monitoring in the UK: A Case Study

Recent years have seen an influx of medical technologies capable of remotely monitoring the health and behaviours of individuals to detect, manage and prevent health problems. Known collectively as ‘Personal Health Monitoring’ (PHM), these systems are intended to supplement medical care with health monitoring outside traditional care environments such as hospitals. In the face of ageing demographics across the EU, such technologies are seen as a promising way to close the predicted gap between healthcare demand and resources. Medical care and monitoring currently provided by humans may be supplemented by technological monitoring, creating new ways of delivering healthcare to the elderly, homebound, chronically ill and healthy alike. However, the implications of introducing technological monitoring into healthcare need to be considered in greater detail before the technologies are widely used. PHM allows for greater collection of personal health data about users, which may raise ethical concerns. As an emerging technology with the potential for widespread usage across Europe and beyond, the opportunity remains for PHM to be developed and deployed responsibly by adhering to the principles of Responsible Research & Innovation (RRI). To contribute to this process an interview study with potential users and healthcare professionals was carried out in the UK. Twenty-one stakeholders were interviewed from patient groups and healthcare professionals representing medical conditions targeted by PHM: diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dementia. A series of recommendations on how to address the ethical implications and concerns of stakeholders are provided for members of industry responsible for developing PHM devices and services. Nine recommendations were identified:•Offer devices and services with user feedback and recommendations for better health•Limit user access to raw monitoring data•Offer multiple levels of summarised feedback to users•Create open channels of communication with users•Do not view monitors as a replacement for staff•Give users control over their devices•Capture contextual information to support monitoring data•Take a minimal approach to contextual data•Discuss the extent and implications of monitoring with usersThe work described here is a first broad step in the RRI process which can contribute to the development and deployment of any PHM devices and services. The study can be understood as a broad ethical foresight study achieved through engagement with PHM stakeholders, including patients, doctors and healthcare organisations. Each of the five RRI principles described by the European Commission was adhered to (see: Appendix 1), providing an example of how development and deployment can be performed responsibly with the involvement of stakeholders.

Viewpoint: Future of food safety and nutrition - Seeking win-wins, coping with trade-offs

The possible implications of global trends such as climate change and resource scarcity on food security are high on the political agendas. While the food sufficiency aspect of food security takes centre-stage, the future of food safety and nutritional quality of diets often seems to be taken for granted. This paper builds on the results of a foresight study on EU food safety and nutrition towards 2050 to discuss potential future points of tension for food policy. Increasing food production while using fewer resources and reducing food waste while ensuring food safety are just two examples. Innovation at different levels in the food system will be needed to address future challenges. Fast technology uptake and the launch of new food-related products can put pressure on the ability to deliver timely risk assessments, the scope of which might also need to cover other legitimate factors. Future food policies need to be more sensitive to impacts on food safety and nutrition and health aspects. A holistic food systems approach must be taken to identify and discuss in advance possible tensions and trade-offs and to address them upfront in a systematic and transparent manner.

The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight

This study investigates trends in Foresight and establishes how the changing global landscape has affected the Foresight activities over the last decade. The strategies these countries have adopted to counter the effects and make the best of these changes have also been examined. Key issues discussed in the paper cover the drivers of the trends in the past and next decade and their future implications for Foresight. The study identifies trends in Foresight through case studies. Five leading countries in Foresight have been selected for analysis including Finland, the UK, Germany, Japan and Russia. A set of indicators have been designed for the purpose of benchmarking national Foresight activities of these five countries. Among the indicators are: the contextual landscape, scope of the exercise, regularity of using Foresight for policy formulation, funding mechanisms, scale of participation as well as use and implementation. The results of the study show that, Foresight activities have changed in content, context and process over the last ten years. First, Foresight has moved from large scale national activities and become narrower in scope with attempts to focus on specific grand challenges, sectors or technologies. Second, in the quest to provide a broader picture of the social environment within which the results of the study will be implemented in order to ensure robust STI policy, Foresight exercises have become more extensive by involving more social stakeholders and expert consultations. Also, technological applications have shortened the entire Foresight process as new tools have been created for gathering and processing data, eliciting opinions, and disseminating them widely. This is a result of more intensive use of technologies and electronic platforms for the purpose of Foresight studies. Recent Foresight literature lacks a comprehensive overview of the changing landscape of policy making, motivations for organizing Foresight activities and processes of implementing Foresight. The present study aims to fill this gap with a holistic analysis of the context, content and process of Foresight activities in the past 10 years, and discusses possible transformations in the next 10 years.

Pressures on soil functions from soil management in Germany. A foresight review

Global trends in demand for biomass-based food, feed, energy, and fiber call for a sustainable intensification of agricultural production. From the perspective of sustaining soil functions, this implies the integration of soil productivity with the other soil functions and services, namely carbon sequestration, water purification and retention, and nutrient and matter cycling as well as biodiversity. Soil management is the key to this integration. The proper anticipation of future opportunities and challenges for sustainable soil management requires an analysis of drivers and trends affecting soil management. Here, we review drivers and trends of soil management and their relevance for soil functions taking Germany as an example of industrialized agricultural systems with low yield gaps. We analyzed socio-economic, biophysical and technological drivers and identified two types of future management changes: (1) Quantitative changes, i.e., more or less of the same input factors, such as fertilizers, as part of a moderate intensification. (2) Qualitative changes: There, we found the strongest signals for the following practices: higher precision and lightweight machines triggered by information and communication technology (ICT) and robotics; diversification of crop rotations, including the integration of lignocellulosic crops; inoculation with biota; and new crop varieties. Positive practices may be reinforced by a behavioral trend towards sustainable soil management, driven by increasing awareness, knowledge, and consumer demand. They offer opportunities for relieving mechanical pressures from weight and contact stress, chemical pressures from pesticides and fertilizers and promoting soil biodiversity without compromising the soil’s production function. We also found threats, such as increased removal of organic residues and potentially harmful organisms. This foresight study is the first to delineate opportunities and challenges for sustainable soil management and intensification. It informs researchers who intend to improve the knowledge base for reinforcement of positive and mitigation of negative trends of soil management.

Governing through visions: Evaluating the performativity of the European gas target models

In 2010 an initiative was launched to realize a competitive single EU market for natural gas through the use of a future vision. This Gas Target Model (GTM) aimed to provide direction for concrete market development through regulatory structures as well as an overarching scope of what a functioning gas market would entail. This paper assesses the use and impact of such sectoral visions. We develop a framework that builds on the sociology of expectations and foresight studies and distinguish between the envisioning process, vision content, and vision use (output). The analysis follows the development of two versions of the GTM: 2011 and 2015. We find that the GTM has a contradictory nature. The vision that feeds into regulatory structures requires a stable and uniform rule set. The overarching vision requires incorporation of long-term uncertainty and adaptability. Moreover, the sectoral focus requires alignment to adjacent sectors and wider policy considerations. This makes it difficult to set boundaries, to identify relevant actors, and to ensure commitment from these actors. We conclude that the former vision was actively pursued and materialized in Framework Guidelines and Network Codes, while the latter vision is just being identified and framed.

Strategic Foresight and Futures Studies in Mexico: The Master’s Degree in Strategic Foresight at Tecnológico de Monterrey

The aim of this article is to provide a brief overview of the different approaches for conducting a foresight process to be able to position the key competencies developed by the Master’s Degree in Strategic Foresight offered at Tecnológico de Monterrey. There are few graduate degree programs about futures studies worldwide. There is also consensus that futures studies is more a practice-based field than an established academic discipline; this stresses the importance of having a clear understanding of what contents and skills these programs are trying to teach.

Comparing forest sector modelling and qualitative foresight analysis: Cases on wood products industry

Scenario analyses are widely used in forest sector foresight studies, being typically based on either qualitative or quantitative approaches. As scenario analyses are used for informing decision-makers, it is of interest to contrast the similarities and differences between the scenario processes and outcomes using quantitative and qualitative approaches and to explore the underlying causes of differences. This paper uses the output from a qualitative scenario study to design forest sector model (FSM) scenarios and compares the results from the two approaches. We analyse two cases on wood products markets in Norway: i) Wood products suppliers establish a developer firm specializing on wood construction to boost demand, and ii) Levying a carbon tax while reducing CO2 emissions in cement production. Comparing the qualitative studies (innovation diffusion analysis, backcasting and Delphi) and FSM analyses (NorFor model), the results resemble for case ii) but deviate strongly for case i). Notably, the strategy aiming to boost the demand for domestic wood products leads in NorFor mainly to an increase in imports with limited impact on Norwegian sawnwood production. Causes of the discrepancies are discussed. Despite the challenges of combining the two frameworks, we believe that the method where assumptions based on stakeholder input or other qualitative research approaches are elaborated in a FSM and compared, should be more explored. Importantly, applying various methods and frameworks allows for complementing and diversifying the picture, and thus improving the knowledge base.

The long-term development of Russian biotech sector

PurposeTo define strategic directions for the Russia’s social, economic, scientific and technological development in 2011-2013, a large-scale foresight study including the deep analysis of prospects of biotechnology development there was undertaken (Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight). This paper aims to present results of this research.Design/methodology/approachThe study was based on a combination of technology-push and market-pull approaches that aimed not only to identify most promising science and technology (S&T) areas but also to understand how they can be realized in practice. Representatives from federal authorities, science and business were involved in the project to create future visions of technological directions; analyze grand challenges, weak signals and wild cards; and set research and development (R&D) priorities.FindingsAccording to results of the study, Russia has a potential for biotech sector development, although the level of R&D in the majority of areas is lagging behind that in the USA and leading EU countries. However, there are several advanced applied research areas where efforts can be focused. Among them are high-performance genomics and post-genomics research platforms, systems and structural biology, microbial metabolic engineering, plant biotechnology and microbial strains and consortia for development of symbiotic plant–microbial communities.Originality/valueConcentration of available resources of government and business on biotechnological sector development can help to find answers for challenges that Russia faces today or will face tomorrow. It will help to pick up on the current level of research activities, improve the quality of personnel training, make this area the engine of the economy and carry out the so-called new industrialization of the country, building a new, high-tech device industry.