Foreshock Occurrence Research Articles

P-Alert earthquake early warning system: case study of the 2022 Chishang earthquake at Taitung, Taiwan

A series of earthquakes that struck Taiwan's southern Longitudinal Valley on September 17 and 18, 2022 severely damaged several buildings in Taitung and Hualien. The Chishang earthquake, which had a magnitude of ML 6.8 and a large foreshock with a magnitude of ML 6.6 the day before, was the mainshock in this sequence. The strongest intensity reported in the epicentral region during this earthquake sequence, which was 6 + , is the highest ever recorded since the Central Weather Bureau (CWB, renamed as the Central Weather Administration since September 15, 2023) revised its seismic intensity scale. National Taiwan University (NTU) has operated a low-cost earthquake early warning (EEW) system known as the P-Alert for a decade. In this study, we demonstrate the performance of the P-Alert network during the 2022 Chishang earthquake and the largest foreshock. The P-Alert network plotted shake maps during these earthquakes that displayed various values within 5 min. The high shaking areas on these maps were in good agreement with observed damages during this earthquake, providing valuable insights into rupture directivity, a crucial component of earthquake engineering. Individual P-Alert stations acted as on-site EEW systems and provided a lead time of 3–10 s within the blind zone of CWB. For the ML 6.8 mainshock, there was a lead time of at least 5 s, even up to 10 s, demonstrating their effectiveness in the blind zone. The P-Alert regional EEW system provided the first report about 9 s and 7 s after the mainshock and the largest foreshock occurrence, respectively, with estimated magnitudes of 5.74 and 5.67. The CWB system estimated magnitudes of 6.72 and 6.16 in the first report, respectively, about 7 s and 9 s after the earthquake occurrence. The timeliness of the two systems were not significantly different. Despite the effectiveness of the P-Alert network, data loss due to connection interruptions prompted us to develop a new compact data logger for improved data availability.

Comparison between alarm-based and probability-based earthquake forecasting methods

SUMMARY In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with magnitude $M\ 5.0$ in the Italian region. We compared the forecasting performance of EEPAS with that of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) forecasting model, using the most recent consistency tests developed within the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). The application of such models for the forecasting of Italian target earthquakes seems to show peculiar characteristics for each of them. In particular, the ETAS model showed higher performance for short-term forecasting, in contrast, the EEPAS model showed higher forecasting performance for the medium/long-term. In this work, we compare the performance of EEPAS and ETAS models with that obtained by a deterministic model based on the occurrence of strong foreshocks (FORE model) using an alarm-based approach. We apply the two rate-based models (ETAS and EEPAS) estimating the best probability threshold above which we issue an alarm. The model parameters and probability thresholds for issuing the alarms are calibrated on a learning data set from 1990 to 2011 during which 27 target earthquakes have occurred within the analysis region. The pseudo-prospective forecasting performance is assessed on a validation data set from 2012 to 2021, which also comprises 27 target earthquakes. Tests to assess the forecasting capability demonstrate that, even if all models outperform a purely random method, which trivially forecast earthquake proportionally to the space–time occupied by alarms, the EEPAS model exhibits lower forecasting performance than ETAS and FORE models. In addition, the relative performance comparison of the three models demonstrates that the forecasting capability of the FORE model appears slightly better than ETAS, but the difference is not statistically significant as it remains within the uncertainty level. However, truly prospective tests are necessary to validate such results, ideally using new testing procedures allowing the analysis of alarm-based models, not yet available within the CSEP.

Step-over of strike-slip faults and overpressure fluid favor occurrence of foreshocks: Insights from the 1975 Haicheng fore-main-aftershock sequence, China

This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes, tidal responses, focal mechanisms, and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975. The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle. The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain. As a plausible and testable hypothesis, we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model, by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models. Together with some other known examples, the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults, especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids, favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks. Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions, it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault. Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.

Crustal structure and seismicity characteristics based on dense array monitoring in northwestern Yunnan, China

Owing to the complex geological environment and frequent seismic activity in northwestern Yunnan, China, the northwest Yunnan dense array was installed. The dense array monitored the Mw6.1 Yangbi earthquake that occurred on May 21, 2021, on the western boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. The earthquake exhibited a typical foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence and presented a clear process of earthquake migration. From April 1, 2018 to December 31, 2021, 11,623 earthquakes were recorded by 72 stations in the dense array. Based on their arrival time data, the Vp/Vs model consistency-constrained double-difference seismic tomography method was employed. We obtained high-precision crustal 3-D Vp, Vs, Vp/Vs models, and relocation results for northwestern Yunnan. A wide distribution of low-velocity anomalies was observed in the middle and upper crust of northwestern Yunnan. Based on GPS measurements, the contour of the low-Vp zone is aligned with the clockwise movement of crustal material caused by the compression of the Tibetan Plateau. A seismic cluster with a banded distribution pattern was identified in an intersection area of multiple faults. And its formation might be related to the infiltration of geothermal fluid in a fluid channel composed of unknown fractures. The geothermal fluid originates from the intersection of the fault-enriched hot springs. The flow and seepage from the fluid channels spread to the Yangbi earthquake source region, reactivating the previously existing unmapped faults, ultimately leading to the occurrence of Yangbi foreshocks. Because of the stress transmission, the Coulomb stress of the foreshock triggered the high-strength part of the main fault, which triggered the occurrence of the main earthquake.

Nucleation of Laboratory Earthquakes: Quantitative Analysis and Scalings

AbstractIn this study we use the precursory acoustic emission (AE) activity during the nucleation of stick‐slip instability as a proxy to investigate foreshock occurrence prior to natural earthquakes. We report on three stick‐slip experiments performed on cylindrical samples of Indian metagabbro under upper crustal stress conditions (30–60 MPa). AEs were continuously recorded by eight calibrated acoustic sensors during the experiments. Seismological parameters (moment magnitude, corner frequency and stress‐drop) of the detected AEs (−8.8 ≤ Mw ≤ −7) follow the scaling law between moment magnitude and corner frequency that characterizes natural earthquakes. AE activity always increases toward failure and is driven by along fault slip velocity. The stacked AE foreshock sequences follow an inverse Omori type law, with a characteristic Omori time c inversely proportional to normal stress. AEs moment magnitudes increase toward failure, as manifested by a decrease in b‐value from ∼1 to ∼0.5 at the end of the nucleation process. During nucleation, foreshocks migrate toward the mainshock epicenter location, and stabilize at a distance from the latter compatible with the predicted Rate‐and‐State nucleation size. Importantly, the nucleation characteristic timescale also scales inversely with applied normal stress and the expected nucleation size. Finally, we infer that foreshocks are the byproducts of the nucleation phase which is an almost fully aseismic process. Nevertheless, the seismic/aseismic energy release ratio continuously increases during nucleation, highlighting that, the nucleation process starts as a fully aseismic process, and evolves toward a cascading process at the onset of dynamic rupture.

Regional Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks

Abstract Measures of foreshock occurrence are systematically examined using earthquake catalogs for eight regions (Italy, southern California, northern California, Costa Rica, Onshore Japan, Alaska, Turkey, and Greece) after imposing a magnitude ≥3.0 completeness level. Foreshocks are identified using three approaches: a magnitude-dependent space + fixed-time windowing method, a nearest-neighbor clustering method, and a modified magnitude-dependent space + variable-time windowing method. The method with fixed-time windows systematically yields higher counts of foreshocks than the other two clustering methods. We find similar counts of foreshocks across the three methods when the magnitude aperture is equalized by including only earthquakes in the magnitude range M*−2≤ M< M*, in which M* is the mainshock magnitude. For most of the catalogs (excluding Italy and southern California), the measured b-values of the foreshocks of all region-specific mainshocks are lower by 0.1–0.2 than b-values of respective aftershocks. Allowing for variable-time windows results in relatively high probabilities of having at least one foreshock in Italy (∼43%–56%), compared to other regional catalogs. Foreshock probabilities decrease to 14%–41% for regions such as Turkey, Greece, and Costa Rica. Similar trends are found when requiring at least five foreshocks in a sequence to be considered. Estimates of foreshock probabilities for each mainshock are method dependent; however, consistent regional trends exist regardless of method, with regions such as Italy and southern California producing more observable foreshocks than Turkey and Greece. Some regions with relatively high background seismicity have comparatively low probabilities of detectable foreshock activity when using methods that account for variable background, possibly due to depletion of near-failure fault conditions by background activity.

Characteristics of the foreshock occurrence for Mj3.0 to 7.2 shallow onshore earthquakes in Japan

We use the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) earthquake catalogue from January, 2001 to February, 2021 to investigate the spatiotemporal foreshock occurrence for shallow (within 30 km depth) onshore earthquakes (Mj3.0 to 7.2). We find clear peaks for the numbers of small earthquakes within 10 days and 3 km prior to the larger earthquakes, which are considered as our definition of foreshocks. After removing the aftershocks, earthquake swarms and possible triggered earthquakes by the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we find that for the 2066 earthquakes (mainshocks), 783 (38%) have one or more foreshocks. There is a decreasing trend of foreshock occurrence rate with mainshock depth. Also, normal faulting earthquakes have higher foreshock occurrence rate than reverse faulting earthquakes. We calculate the earthquake occurrence rate as a function of the magnitudes of foreshocks and mainshocks, and we have found no clear trend between the magnitudes of foreshocks and mainshocks.Graphical

Foreshock Activity Promoted by Locally Elevated Loading Rate on a 4‐m‐Long Laboratory Fault

AbstractWe report laboratory experimental results to reveal the factors that control the occurrence and magnitude of foreshocks. We conducted rock friction experiments using an apparatus that can shear 4‐m‐long rock specimens. We observed many stick‐slip events, as well as very slow (several tens of μm/s) but long‐lasting slips between those main events. These long‐term slow slips individually initiated from both the leading and trailing edges of the fault, and kept propagating steadily toward each other. Such steady slips did not immediately trigger any seismic events, regardless of the accumulated slip amount. After the coalescence of the two long‐term slow slip fronts, a second phase of slow slip with higher slip rate (several hundreds of μm/s)—called precursory slow slip, began at the central area and was accompanied by the occurrence of small seismic events (foreshocks). Subsequently, the main fast rupture eventually developed. We propose that the asperities that hosted foreshocks had similar size to the local critical nucleation length; the asperities slipped stably when the local loading rate was low, but could also slip unstably and radiated seismic waves when the local loading rate became high. We further found a clear positive correlation between foreshock magnitude and local slip rate. These results suggest that local loading rate has a significant influence on the occurrence and magnitude of foreshocks. Therefore, its effect should be taken into account during the studies of earthquake nucleation process and other similar phenomena such as Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS), icequakes, and repeating earthquakes.

Foreshocks of the 2018 ML 4.0 Shimian Earthquake in the Anninghe Fault and Its Implications for Earthquake Nucleation

AbstractForeshock activity sometimes precedes large earthquakes, but how foreshocks relate to mainshock nucleation is still unclear with limited case studies existing. One way to further the understanding of the foreshock occurrence mechanism is to maximize the resolution of the foreshock characteristics by waveform-based earthquake detection and location. Here, we apply the match and locate method to scan continuous waveforms 30 days before and 44 days after the 2018 ML 4.0 Shimian earthquake in Sichuan, China, and obtain approximately three times more events than reported in a local catalog. The augmented seismicity suggests the existence of a blind small strike-slip fault deep in the east of the Anninghe fault. Forty-one foreshocks of magnitude ranging from ML−0.7 to 3.4 occurred within 4 hr before the mainshock and did not show an accelerating pattern leading up to the mainshock. Focal mechanisms are consistent between the mainshock and foreshocks, implying that the mainshock and foreshock hypocenters are located on the same fault plane. The high-precision relative locations reveal that most of the foreshocks rupture adjacent source patches along the fault plane, with little or partial overlap, which is consistent with cascade stress triggering from foreshocks to foreshocks to the mainshock. Our research is one of the few to focus on the foreshock sequence of moderate mainshocks and provides a new case for studying the mechanism of foreshocks of intraplate earthquakes with a low incidence of foreshocks.

Testing of the foreshock hypothesis within an epidemic like description of seismicity

SUMMARYThe epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model provides a good description of the post-seismic spatio-temporal clustering of seismicity and is also able to capture some features of the increase of seismic activity caused by foreshocks. Recent results, however, have shown that the number of foreshocks observed in instrumental catalogues is significantly much larger than the one predicted by the ETAS model. Here we show that it is possible to keep an epidemic description of post-seismic activity and, at the same time, to incorporate pre-seismic temporal clustering, related to foreshocks. Taking also into-account the short-term incompleteness of instrumental catalogues, we present a model which achieves very good description of the southern California seismicity both on the aftershock and on the foreshock side. Our results indicate that the existence of a preparatory phase anticipating main shocks represents the most plausible explanation for the occurrence of foreshocks.

Exploring probabilistic seismic risk assessment accounting for seismicity clustering and damage accumulation: Part I. Hazard analysis

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as a tool to assess the probability that ground motion of a given intensity or larger is experienced at a given site and time span, has historically comprised the basis of both building design codes in earthquake-prone regions and seismic risk models. The PSHA traditionally refers solely to mainshock events and typically employs a homogeneous Poisson process to model their occurrence. Nevertheless, recent disasters, such as the 2010–2011 Christchurch sequence or the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes, to name a few, have highlighted the potential pitfalls of neglecting the occurrence of foreshocks, aftershocks, and other triggered events, and pinpointed the need to revisit the current practice. Herein, we employ the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to describe seismicity in Central Italy, investigate the model’s capability to reproduce salient features of observed seismicity, and compare ETAS-derived one-year hazard estimates with ones obtained with a standard mainshock-only Poisson-based hazard model. A companion paper uses the hazard models derived herein to compare and contrast loss estimates for the residential exposure of Umbria in Central Italy.

The influence of the brittle-ductile transition zone on aftershock and foreshock occurrence

Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quite universal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have been proposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we show that the change in rheological behavior of the crust, from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening, represents a viable mechanism to explain statistical features of both aftershocks and foreshocks. More precisely, we present a model of the seismic fault described as a velocity weakening elastic layer coupled to a velocity strengthening visco-elastic layer. We show that the statistical properties of aftershocks in instrumental catalogs are recovered at a quantitative level, quite independently of the value of model parameters. We also find that large earthquakes are often anticipated by a preparatory phase characterized by the occurrence of foreshocks. Their magnitude distribution is significantly flatter than the aftershock one, in agreement with recent results for forecasting tools based on foreshocks.

Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California

AbstractForeshocks have been documented as preceding less than half of all mainshock earthquakes. These observations are difficult to reconcile with laboratory earthquake experiments and theoretical models of earthquake nucleation, which both suggest that foreshock activity should be nearly ubiquitous. Here we use a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution earthquake catalog to study foreshock sequences of magnitude M4 and greater mainshocks in southern California from 2008–2017. This highly complete catalog provides a new opportunity to examine smaller magnitude precursory seismicity. Seventy‐two percent of mainshocks within this catalog are preceded by foreshock activity that is significantly elevated compared to the local background seismicity rate. Foreshock sequences vary in duration from several days to weeks, with a median of 16.6 days. The results suggest that foreshock occurrence in nature is more prevalent than previously thought and that our understanding of earthquake nucleation may improve in tandem with advances in our ability to detect small earthquakes.

The Relevance of Foreshocks in Earthquake Triggering: A Statistical Study.

An increase of seismic activity is often observed before large earthquakes. Events responsible for this increase are usually named foreshock and their occurrence probably represents the most reliable precursory pattern. Many foreshocks statistical features can be interpreted in terms of the standard mainshock-to-aftershock triggering process and are recovered in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ETAS model. Here we present a statistical study of instrumental seismic catalogs from four different geographic regions. We focus on some common features of foreshocks in the four catalogs which cannot be reproduced by the ETAS model. In particular we find in instrumental catalogs a significantly larger number of foreshocks than the one predicted by the ETAS model. We show that this foreshock excess cannot be attributed to catalog incompleteness. We therefore propose a generalized formulation of the ETAS model, the ETAFS model, which explicitly includes foreshock occurrence. Statistical features of aftershocks and foreshocks in the ETAFS model are in very good agreement with instrumental results.

Variations in precursory slip behavior resulting from frictional heterogeneity

Precursory seismicity is often observed before a large earthquake. Small foreshocks occur within the mainshock rupture area, which cannot be explained by simple models that assume homogeneous friction on the entire fault. In this study, we consider a frictionally heterogeneous fault model, motivated by recent observations of geologic faults and slow earthquakes. This study investigates slip behavior on faults governed by a rate- and state-dependent friction law. We consider a finite linear fault consisting of alternating velocity-weakening zones (VWZs) and velocity-strengthening zones (VSZs). Our model generates precursory slip before the mainshock that ruptures the entire fault, though the activity level of the precursory slip depends on the frictional parameters. We investigate variations in precursory slip behavior, which we characterize quantitatively by the background slip acceleration and seismic radiation, using parameter studies of the a value of the VWZs and VSZs. The results reveal that precursory slip is very small when VWZs are strongly locked and when VSZs consume only a small amount of energy during seismic slip. Precursory slip is significant around the stability boundary of the fault. Furthermore, the type of precursory slip (seismic or aseismic) is controlled by the amplitude of the frictional heterogeneity. Active foreshocks obeying an inverse Omori law associated with background aseismic slip can be interpreted as the nucleation of the mainshock, though this is different from classical nucleation because the monotonic increase in slip velocity is significantly perturbed by the occurrence of foreshocks. Frictional heterogeneity also affects interseismic slip behavior. Modeled variations in precursory slip behavior and interseismic activity can qualitatively explain the along-dip and among-subduction-zone variations in real seismicity patterns. Because even simple frictional heterogeneity produces complex seismicity, it is necessary to further investigate the slip behavior of frictionally heterogeneous faults, which could be utilized for modeling various real seismicity patterns.

Characteristics of foreshock activity inferred from the JMA earthquake catalog

We investigated the foreshock activity characteristics using the Japan Meteorological Agency Unified Earthquake Catalog for the last 20 years. Using the nearest-neighbor distance approach, we systematically and objectively classified the earthquakes into clustered and background seismicity. We further categorized the clustered events into foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks and analyzed their statistical features such as the b-value of the frequency–magnitude distribution. We found that the b-values of the foreshocks are lower than those of the aftershocks. This b-value difference suggested that not only the stochastic cascade effect but also the stress changes/aseismic processes may contribute to the mainshock-triggering process. However, forecasting the mainshock based on b-value analysis may be difficult. In addition, the rate of foreshock occurrence in all clusters (with two or more events) was nearly constant (30–40%) over a wide magnitude range. The difference in the magnitude, time, and epicentral distance between the mainshock and largest foreshock followed a power law. We inferred that the distinctive characteristics of foreshocks can be better revealed using the improved catalog, which includes the micro-earthquake information.

A Study on the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Citizen’s Evaluation of Earthquake Information and Their Evacuation and Sheltering Behaviors

In order to reveal the current status and issues of the victims of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake eight months after its occurrence, we conducted large-scale random sample questionnaire surveys with victims aged 18 and over in the most affected municipalities from November to December 2016. We decided to sample a total of 7,000 victims (1,600 from Kumamoto City and 5,400 from the other thirteen municipalities) with an expected collection rate of 25% and a sampling error of 5%; 3,272 victims effectively responded to the questionnaires (effective collection rate: 46.7%). The Kumamoto Earthquake was a series of earthquakes including foreshocks and main shocks of magnitude 7 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale, and aftershocks that appear to have significantly influenced the victims’ response behaviors as well as the recovery and reconstruction of the affected areas.The questionnaire survey on whether the victims’ pre-earthquake knowledge and awareness had any influence on their post-earthquake behaviors reveals that not more than 30% were aware of the active faults present in their areas before the earthquake occurred and that half of them hoped that no earthquakes would occur. On the other hand, the victims who were aware of the active faults present in their areas and who were afraid that an earthquake could occur within 10 years had planned accordingly and had stocked the necessary goods and provisions.The questionnaire survey on how the victims behaved in the event of the foreshocks and main shocks reveals that about half of them evacuated and found shelter after the foreshocks. Those who feared any aftershocks, and the damage to their buildings due to the aftershocks, evacuated and took shelter. Those whose buildings were not damaged and whose lifelines were available did not evacuate or take shelter. After the main shock, about 70% of the victims evacuated and took shelter because, in addition to their fears of the aftershocks, their buildings were actually damaged and their lifelines had been rendered unavailable.The questionnaire survey on whether the victims’ pre-earthquake knowledge and awareness had any influence on their post-earthquake behaviors reveals that in the event of an earthquake, like in the case of the foreshocks of the Kumamoto Earthquake in which human beings and buildings were not so scathed and people could not decide whether to evacuate or take shelter, those with more pre-earthquake knowledge and with awareness of earthquake damage better anticipated the aftershock occurrences. On the other hand, in the event of the main shocks of the Kumamoto Earthquake, in which there was great damage to humans and buildings, people with or without pre-earthquake knowledge and awareness on earthquake damage were urged to evacuate and take shelter.The questionnaire survey on whether aftershock information was properly communicated to the victims reveals that they followed the information on aftershocks broadcast by TVs and radios immediately after the foreshock had occurred. The victims did not follow the Meteorological Agency’s press release on the aftershocks on the afternoon of the following day in order to get an update. Instead, they took the information broadcast by TVs and radios as “no great aftershocks would occur in the future,” which was completely different from what the Meteorological Agency’s press release intended. The questionnaire survey on the influences of the aftershock information on the victims’ evacuation and sheltering behaviors reveals that the Meteorological Agency’s press release on the following day of the foreshock occurrence stated that the probability of the aftershock occurrence of lower 6 or over on the Japanese seismic intensity scale is 20% in the following three days, and that of the aftershock occurrence of upper 5 or over on the Japanese seismic intensity scale is 40%. This seems to have had a greater influence on the behaviors of the victims who assumed that “no great aftershocks would occur in the future” as compared to the behaviors of those who assumed that “an aftershock could occur anytime in the future” and “a big aftershock might occur in the future.”With regard to the movements in the victims’ long-term post-earthquake residences and evacuation destinations, 57.5% of the total victims stayed at home after the foreshock occurrence, which is not so different from the case of the Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake, an inland earthquake with relatively few aftershock activities. However, the ratio of the victims who stayed at home stood at 28.7% after the main shock occurrence, at 32.8% on the first weekend or about four days after the foreshock occurrence, and at 49% in the week following the earthquake occurrence, which indicates that more victims evacuated and sought shelter outdoors in cars, tents, and vacant grounds as seen in the case of the Mid-Niigata Earthquake, which witnessed many aftershock activities. Therefore, the evacuation behavior pattern in the Kumamoto Earthquake may be regarded as a cross between the Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake and the Mid-Niigata Earthquake.

Retrospective analysis of seismic regime features before the Taiwan earthquakes of 1999 and 2002

The features of the seismic regime before the strongest earthquakes of Taiwan in the late 20th (Chi-Chi on September 21, 1999, Mw = 7.6) and the early 21st century (March 31, 2002, Mw = 7.4) are analyzed. Based on 1990–1999 and 1994–2002 data, respectively, retrospective analysis of three seismic regime parameters are studied: the total annual number of earthquakes NΣ in the range of ML = 2.5–5.5 and Mw = 3.0–7.0; the total annual quantity of released seismic energy ΣE, J; and angular coefficient b of earthquake recurrence graphs. Two explicit subperiods are revealed in the course of the seismic regime: quiescence in 1990–1996 before the Chi-Chi earthquake and in 1994–1997 before the March 2002 earthquake; in 1997–1999 and 1998–2002, respectively, seismic activation is observed. Due to the predominance of weak earthquakes during the Chi-Chi earthquake preparation, factor b appeared relatively higher (–1.16 on average); in contrast, before the March 2002 earthquake, due to the occurrence of foreshocks with Mw = 6.8–7.0, the factor b values appeared relatively lower (–0.55 and–0.74 for the quiescence and activation subperiods, respectively). Despite the fundamental difference in the seismotectonic situation between the domains where two mainshocks occurred and significantly difference energy ranges of the initial seismic events, the analysis results are similar for both earthquakes. In both cases, the mainshock occurred at the peak of released energy, which can be considered a coincidence. Solid verification of this positive tendency requires the accumulation of seismological statistics.

Occurrence of Foreshocks in Large Earthquakes with Strike‐Slip Rupturing

Because they are recognized as one of the most reliable premonitory events of the subsequent earthquake, foreshocks are often very useful to pinpoint the time and location of the forthcoming earthquake. However, the most challenging questions, including why foreshocks precede some earthquakes but not others and what key factors control their occurrence, are not yet satisfactorily answered. In the present study, a group of strike‐slip earthquakes ( M s≥6.0) in China and the western United States are classified into three types according to the configuration of the seismologic ruptures: type 1, type 2, and type 3. They refer to earthquakes of ruptures containing an extensional rock bridge, a contractional rock bridge, and both extensional and contractional rock bridges, respectively. Foreshocks are more likely to occur in type 1 or type 3 earthquakes, whereas they are less likely in type 2 earthquakes. These phenomena may indicate that, in strike‐slip earthquakes, extensional interlock is a heterogeneity facilitating the occurrence of foreshocks. Being inconsistent with some published results, the incidence of foreshock seems to be independent of the depth of mainshock (shallower than 30 km) as far as this study is concerned, suggesting that the increase of normal stress may exert dissimilar influences on the foreshock occurrence for different earthquake focal mechanisms or locations. In the study data set, no definite connection is observed between the occurrence of foreshock and the magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock. Online Material: Figures of spatial distribution of earthquake sequences, fault geometry, and isoseismal maps.

Analysis of Foreshock Sequences in California and Implications for Earthquake Triggering

We analyze foreshock activity in California and compare observations with simulated catalogs based on a branching aftershock-triggering model. We first examine foreshock occurrence patterns for isolated \(M \ge 5\) earthquakes in southern California from 1981 to 2011 and in northern California from 1984 to 2009. Among the 64 \(M \ge 5\) mainshocks, excluding 3 swarms and 3 doubles, 53 % of the rest are preceded by at least one foreshock within 30 days and 5 km. Foreshock occurrence appears correlated with mainshock faulting type and depth. Foreshock area is correlated with the magnitude of the largest foreshock and the number of foreshocks, however, it is not correlated with mainshock magnitude. We then examine the occurrence pattern of all seismicity clusters without a minimum magnitude requirement, and the possibility that they are “foreshocks” of larger mainshocks. Only about 30 % of the small clusters lead to a larger cluster. About 66 % of the larger clusters have foreshock activities, and the spatial distribution pattern is similar to \(M \ge 5\) mainshocks, with lower occurrence rates in the Transverse Range and central California and higher occurrence rates in the Eastern California Shear Zone and the Bay Area. These results suggest that foreshock occurrence is largely controlled by the regional tectonic stress field and fault zone properties. In special cases, foreshock occurrence may be useful for short-term forecasting; however, foreshock properties are not reliably predictive of the magnitude of the eventual “mainshock”. Comparison with simulated catalogs suggest that the “swarmy” features and foreshock occurrence rate in the observed catalogs are not well reproduced from common statistical models of earthquake triggering.