Forensic Risk Research Articles

Prison officers as observers of offence paralleling behaviours: an untapped resource?

The concept of Offence Paralleling Behaviours (OPBs) has attracted attention within the forensic psychological risk assessment field given its focus on understanding the relevance of current behaviours. The current study employed thematic analysis on the data produced from two focus groups of prison officers working in an English high security prison. The focus groups explored whether potential OPBs are being observed in prisoner behaviours, and the reasons why some potential OPBs may not be reported. A variety of possible OPB observations emerged from the data, many of which resemble the kinds of manifestations that would be expected to derive from empirically established risk factors. The results suggest that prison officers should be considered an untapped resource by those seeking to complete meaningful forensic psychological risk assessments on offenders. Researchers and risk assessors should acknowledge and seek to ‘tap’ this important resource to attend to current manifestations of risk, but should be aware that in doing so, the stability of officer-inmate relationships may be disrupted.

Sex Offender Risk Assessments in the Child Protection Context. Helpful or Not?

When a convicted or alleged child sex offender is living, or having contact, with his own children or stepchildren, the obvious worry is that these children are victims or will become victims of sexual abuse. One way of determining the risk of this occurring is for the convicted or alleged offender to undergo a forensic sex offender risk assessment. In this article I raise questions regarding the usefulness of sex offender risk assessments within the statutory child protection context. Most importantly, I ask whether static and dynamic risk assessment instruments can accurately predict the risk an alleged or convicted sex offender poses to his own children. I conclude that ‘high’, ‘moderate’, and ‘low’ risk outcomes of forensic sex offender risk assessments in the child protection context are unreliable and can result in error, and explain that these errors have consequences that, within the child protection context, have consequences that can be dangerous to children.

Evaluator Agreement in Placement Recommendations for Insanity Acquittees

Research has examined differences between psychologists and psychiatrists in opinions on trial competency and criminal responsibility, but there is little research on such differences in risk assessment. This study examined the impact of disciplinary affiliation on opinions regarding whether new insanity acquittees should be hospitalized or released, and the risk factors given the most weight by each discipline. There was no significant difference between disciplines in the frequency of recommendations for hospitalization versus release. However, the concordance rate at the individual case level was only moderate when controlling for chance, which raises questions about the reliability and validity of forensic risk assessments in real-world settings. A number of variables emerged as significant in the decision-making of each discipline, with some differences noted.

Freedom in paradise: Quality of conditional release reports submitted to the Hawaii judiciary

Annually thousands of insanity acquitees are released from mental hospitals when they are no longer determined to be dangerous. This research examined quality of post-acquittal Conditional Release (CR) reports submitted to the Hawaii Judiciary. Hawaii utilizes a “three panel” system for assessing trial felony competency, criminal responsibility, and conditional release, where typically two psychologists (one Department of Health and one community-based) and one community-based psychiatrist submit independent reports to the Court. One hundred fifty CR reports were rated using a 44-item report quality measure. Interrater reliability trials indicated good to excellent agreement between quality ratings. Overall level of report quality was poor regardless of examiners' professional discipline, employer, or board certification status. Concordance rates for CR opinions were poor. Level of agreement between the judicial determination and majority recommendations was also poor. Reasons for the poor quality and level of agreement are discussed with recommendations for report quality improvement, including standardization of procedures and use of forensic risk assessment instruments.

Forensic risk assessment in mental health practice: part 2

In the last 20 years, risk assessment has expanded to mean much more than a simple determination of how dangerous an individual is. Risk formulations now encapsulate the assessment process more generally, and provide the basis for the identification of treatment needs, the development of supervision and risk reduction plans. In the first part of this series, the fluid nature of violence risk was emphasized. Further to this, it was pointed out that violence risk often changes over time and is heavily dependent on context. Part 2 expands on some of these ideas by considering some basic principles of forensic risk assessment and identifying some key issues which touch on the risk assessment and management processes.

Violence risk assessment in mental health practice: part 1

In the last 20 years, risk assessment has expanded to mean much more than a simple determination of how dangerous an individual is. In 2009, the concept extends well beyond establishing level of risk. Risk formulations now encapsulate the assessment process more generally, and provide the basis for the identification of treatment needs and the development of supervision and risk reduction plans. Recent legislation in the UK, for example, the Sex Offenders Act (1997), the Crime and Disorder Act (1998) and the Mental Health Act (2007) all emphasize the importance of effective community management of violence risk. Reviewing the recent growth in multi-agency approaches to meet this challenge, the authors consider how health, social care and criminal justice agencies can share information and collaborate effectively. This paper offers some practical guidance on improving techniques designed to minimize forensic risk.

Forensic Risk Assessment

A large number of systematic reviews and meta-analyses have been conducted in the field of forensic risk assessment, and their conclusions have occasionally been conflicting. To examine the quality and findings of these reviews, a metareview was conducted. The authors identified nine systematic reviews and 31 meta-analyses from 1995 to 2009. The themes covered in these reviews and meta-analyses included the validity of actuarial tools compared with unstructured and structured clinical judgment, a comparison of various risk assessment tools, and the predictive validity of these tools for different genders and ethnic backgrounds. This metareview found that the quality and consistency of findings in these areas varied considerably. Sources of heterogeneity were not assessed in half of the reviews, and duplicate samples not excluded in approximately half of the reviews. The authors suggest a standardization of review reporting with particular emphasis on methodological consistency.

PW01-117 - Recidivism of internet sex offenders - an epidemiologic study on more than 4600 offenders in Switzerland

Internet sex offending is a rather new class of criminal acts and therefore little is known about previous convictions, recidivsm and especially correlation with hands-on sexual offences. Previous studies on small samples reported an insignificant correlation between previous convictions for child pornography and later contact sex offences on the one hand and an important role of pornography as a risk factor for sexual recidivsm of convicted sexual offenders. As an increasing number of defendants accused of child pornography is assigned for forensic risk assessment, better evidence and understanding of the role and the amount of the influence of child pornography on later offending is most urgently needed.We therefore explore these correlations by means of the complete set of all offenders convicted of illegal pornography in the Swiss federal crime registry at the time of november 2008. The analysis of 4658 criminal records reveal that 7.9% of the internet sex offenders were at the same time convicted of child abuse. The child molesters with 20.7% recidivated more frequently in general, compared to 9.8% of the offenders who were not convicted of a contact offence. Furthermore, the contact offenders with 11.4% were significant more likely to reoffend in terms of illegal pornography and sexual acts involving children with 6.0%.We will present all recidivism rates and our conclusions at the conference.

P02-60 - Evaluation of structured professional judgment for risk assessment in its proper clinical use

Structured professional judgement is the gold standard for forensic risk assessment proven by several studies. None of these studies however investigated the real strength of such a method, which lies in its function to guide clinical judgment by integrating the several evidence based risk factors in a professional process beyond arithmetical addition.In our semi-prospective study (retrospective data-collection from 379 risk assessments from a forensic-psychiatric sample between 1989 and 2000 and a prospective follow-up with complete criminal records until 2007) we found the method of structured professional judgement by means of a catalogue of criteria being prospectively valid: With a median time at risk of 8.4 years the risk management (the process of risk assessment, court decision and sentencing respectively court ordered treatment) reduced both general as violent recidivism significantly.37% of the subjects recidivated median 2.1 years after risk assessment. Recidivism rates (adjusted for time at risk ≥ 24 months) for homicide were 2.1%, 15.7% for all violent offenses, 7.1% for sexual offenses and 2.1% for child abuse.None of the 56 subjects given a negative prediction (“no recidivism”) recidivated with serious offenses.We will also present data about construct validity, CHAID-analysis for recidivism and comparison with PCL and HCR-20 scores.

Experience of collaborative research practice in forensic mental health

The aim of the paper is to share the experience of multi‐national, funded research practice and to explore some of the issues related to conducting such studies in forensic practice. The BEST Index is a normative forensic risk assessment instrument that can be implemented through the different levels of security. It benefits the patient as it is a structured assessment instrument for assessing, planning, implementing and evaluating care in the context of risk assessment. A large‐scale, five‐country EU‐funded study was conducted to validate the instrument and to develop educational tools. Some published description of research experience exists but does not cover the issues for people new to high‐level research studies or the partnership working that is required to make multi‐national, multi‐lingual studies work to the benefit of the patient. Many issues arose during the study and those considered important to deal with, and the actions taken, are described, including ethical issues, management and organisational issues, and ‘the long haul’. Being new to research and coming straight in to this kind of large‐scale clinical research requires preparation and thought.

Sensational interests are not a simple predictor of adolescent offending: Evidence from a large normal British sample

Anecdote and samples from extreme populations suggest military interests and ‘esoteric’ or Gothic interests (collectively referred to as sensational interests) are a predictor of offending. We examined such interests and offending in a large sample of normal British adolescents also considering other aspects of personality. Six-hundred and ninety-five participants provided data on their interests, personality, intrasexual competition, and psychopathology. These data were analysed in relation to self-reported delinquency using principal components analysis and structural equation modelling. While a small positive relationship between militarism and offending was found, this is strongly mediated by personality, with intrasexual competition and low agreeableness emerging as better predictors of delinquency than sensational interests alone. The assumption that unusual interests (e.g., those which are esoteric, ‘Gothic’ or militaristic) inevitably convey dangerousness or antisocial behaviour in adolescents is challenged. Those working with and researching adolescents should consider such dramatic interests in the context of personality and behavioural engagement before inferring clinical or forensic risk.

S27-03 Calibration of forensic risk assessment instruments

Risk assessment instruments have been the subject of validation studies which have primarily investigated the properties known from psychometrics (objectivity, reliability and validity). Validation of forensic risk assessment instruments is confronted with a whole row of methodical challenges, which differ considerably from the topics addressed in psychological test development. Risk assessments instruments state the probability of a particular offense to occur. To disregard the probabilistic nature of risk calculations leads to methodically faulty assumptions on the predictive validity of an instrument. Furthermore, test developers will use questionable statistical methods to assess the validity of the instruments such as ROC analyses. This analysis strategy is considered to be state of the art even though this method does not take into account the probabilistic nature of prognoses. Its results can thus be interpreted only to a limited degree. ROC analyses for example disregard certain aspects of an instrument’s calibration, which might lead in an instrument’s validation to high ROC values while demonstrating only low validity.

Forensic identification and criminal justice: forensic science, justice and risk, by Carole McCartney

Forensic identification and criminal justice: forensic science, justice and risk, by Carole McCartney

Forensische Risikokalkulationen: Grundlegende methodische Aspekte zur Beurteilung der Anwendbarkeit und Validität verschiedener Verfahren

Risk assessment instruments have been the subject of a number of validation studies which have mainly examined the psychometric properties known primarily from psychological test development (objectivity, reliability and validity). Hardly any attention was paid to the fact that validation of forensic risk assessment instruments is confronted with a whole row of methodical challenges. Risk assessments include a quantitative and a qualitative component in that they state the probability (quantitative) of a particular offense (qualitative) to occur. To disregard the probabilistic nature of risk calculations leads to methodically faulty assumptions on the predictive validity of an instrument and what represents a suitable statistical method to test it. For example, ROC analyses are considered to be state of the art in the validation of risk assessment instruments. This method does however not take into account the probabilistic nature of prognoses and its results can be interpreted only to a limited degree. ROC analyses for example disregard certain aspects of an instrument's calibration which might lead in an instrument's validation to high ROC values while demonstrating only low validity. Further shortcomings of validation studies are that they ignore changes of risk dispositions or that they don't differentiate between offense specific risks (e. g. any recidivism vs. violent or sexual recidivism). The paper discusses and reviews different quality criteria of risk assessment instruments in view of methodological as well as practical issues. Many of these criteria have been ignored so far in the scientific discourse even though they are essential to the evaluation of the validity and the scope of indication of an instrument.

Acting on Harmful Command Hallucinations in Psychotic Disorders

Although harmful command hallucinations have been linked to violent behavior, few studies have examined factors mediating this relationship. The principal aim of this study was to examine a range of factors potentially associated with acting on harmful command hallucinations using a multivariate approach. The sample comprised 75 participants drawn from community and forensic services. Measures assessing characteristics of the command hallucination and the hallucinator, including forensic risk factors, were administered. Using ordinal logistic regression, we found compliance to be associated with increasing age, viewing the command hallucination as positive, congruent delusions, and reporting low maternal control in childhood. Antipsychotic medication was protective while, contrary to expectations, traditional predictors of violence reduced the odds of compliance with command hallucinations viewed as threatening. The findings suggest that compliance with harmful commands is driven by a complex interaction between beliefs related to the command hallucination and personal characteristics, with risk of compliance increasing with age.

Refractory shoulder dystocia in term macrosomic newborn with verified complete meningoencephalomyelocele

Abstract The authors presented the birth course, in a primiparous woman with complicated, refractory, high shoulder dystocia, of a macrosomic term-born malformed child (4400/54) with complete occipital meningoencephalomyelocele and microcephaly. After head delivery, high shoulder dystocia occurred that could not be resolved with neither the McRoberts or Resnik maneuver nor with the Woods and Barnum maneuvers, despite recurred tries. Only on third attempt with the Barnum maneuver was the posterior arm released with hand traction, followed by the whole body of the macrosomic baby. The child was transferred to the Neurosurgery department where operative correction was performed, and after the intervention the child died because of respiratory insufficiency. Due to the strict parental decision on pregnancy continuation and prohibition of any obstetric interventions during delivery, unborn child and parturient, as well as the obstetric team, were put into high professional, forensic and ethical risk.

RELOCATION, RESEARCH, AND FORENSIC EVALUATION: PART II: RESEARCH IN SUPPORT OF THE RELOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL

The forensic risk assessment model for child custody relocation cases was described byAustin (2000a,2000b). It is a research‐based, actuarial predictive model designed to assist evaluators in organizing data for the complex relocation case. It is only the first step in the forensic relocation analysis. The model can serve as a heuristic for decision makers who are in a position of trying to resolve the decisional dilemmas associated with relocation. The research basis for the model is more fully described. The fact‐driven nature of relocation cases is emphasized. Evaluators and decision makers are also encouraged to integrate descriptive data that allow for a psychological cost/benefit analysis or the relative advantages/disadvantages to the children and parents associated with relocating or not relocating. The model is intended to facilitate the process of careful investigation by evaluators and to provide a scientific framework for the forensic analysis necessary for the crafting of appropriate parenting plans.

Review: Forensic Identification and Criminal Justice: Forensic Science, Justice and Risk

Review: Forensic Identification and Criminal Justice: Forensic Science, Justice and Risk

Book Review: Forensic Identification and Criminal Justice: Forensic Science, Justice and Risk

Book Review: Forensic Identification and Criminal Justice: Forensic Science, Justice and Risk

Best Practices: Utilizing Risk-of-Violence Findings for Continuity of Care

Best practices are recommended for assessing risk of violence and utilizing those findings to communicate with other mental health providers to manage the potential for violence as clients are transferred or referred. These recommendations are the fruition of a five-year collaboration of the Forensic Risk Assessment Work Group of the Ohio Department of Mental Health's statewide Forensic Product Line Leadership Team. Accurate assessment of static and dynamic risk factors, effective communication of risk of violence, incorporation of dynamic risk factors into the treatment planning process, and implementation of evidence-based risk-management practices are all emphasized as best practices.