Foreign Trade Turnover Research Articles

Assessment of Prospects for Sustainable Cross‐Border Cooperation of the Russian Post‐Virgin Regions of the Urals and Siberia with the Republic of Kazakhstan

Aim. Comprehensive assessment of the stability of cross‐border cooperation between the Russian steppe regions of the Urals and Siberia and the Republic of Kazakhstan in the fields of foreign trade and migration. To achieve the goal, a model has been developed to assess the prospects for sustainable cross‐border interaction of the Russian steppe regions of the Urals and Siberia with the Republic of Kazakhstan.The research conducted using the methodology developed made it possible to identify the problems of cross‐border interaction of Russian steppe regions with the Republic of Kazakhstan. Against the background of a decrease in general mobility of the population of the Russian steppe regions, the share of those who left for the Republic of Kazakhstan among the total number of those who left abroad had a positive trend during the period analysed in the vast majority of steppe regions of the Russian Federation. In five of the eight regions considered, the interaction is characterized as "stable" and "steady", "unstable" interaction in the field of migration only in the Altai Territory.The Tyumen Region was the leader in terms of the share in the country's export‐import operations among the steppe regions of the Russian Federation for 2015–2021. In the period under review, foreign trade turnover had a stimulating effect on the economy of the Chelyabinsk region, the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Novosibirsk region. At the same time, the most active foreign trade activity with the Republic of Kazakhstan was observed in the Altai Territory and Omsk and Kurgan regions. Stable cross‐border cooperation in the field of foreign trade with the Republic of Kazakhstan is only in place in the Kurgan region.

Impact of Blockchain Technology on Logistics and Foreign Trade Turnover in Kazakhstan

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of logistical factors on Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover for the period from 2013 to 2023, with a particular focus on cargo transportation volumes, freight turnover, container traffic, and transit transport volumes. The research employs a comprehensive and robust methodology that includes data collection, regression analysis, and model refinement to ensure the validity and reliability of the results. The regression analysis initially included all collected variables, but the model was refined to address multicollinearity and retain statistically significant predictors. The model initially included all variables, but was later refined to address multicollinearity, retaining only statistically significant predictors. The results of the analysis showed that the volume of transit transport is a significant factor affecting the foreign trade turnover of Kazakhstan. The model demonstrated a positive and statistically significant coefficient for the volume of transit transport (0.004534, p-value = 0.025962), which confirms the hypothesis of its crucial role. Additionally, the potential integration of blockchain technology in logistics processes is explored, suggesting that such advancements could enhance transparency, efficiency, and reliability in managing transit goods. By adopting a comprehensive approach that examines multiple logistics factors simultaneously and leveraging a long-term dataset, this research offers novel insights into the logistics-trade relationship in Kazakhstan.

Mongolian Foreign Trade History from the Silk Road

Abstract Foreign trade is a “mirror” of the historical situation of a country. From foreign trade turnover, trading partners, the structure of export and import goods, and trade flows, it is possible to make conclusions about the country’s industrialization, acquired technology, consumption of the population, the standard of living and development. In this article, we intended to make a conclusion that the characteristics of Mongolia’s social and economic situation, production, trade, and consumption at that time were determined, through the historical conditions of Mongolia’s foreign trade at the beginning of the 20th century, as well as how foreign trade and foreign trade policies influenced the country’s choice of a new path of historical development.

Changing the vector of Russia’s foreign economic activity in the context of growing anti-Russian sanctions

The article examines the change in the direction of foreign economic activity (hereinafter referred to as FEA) of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as RF, Russia) in the current conditions of growing anti-Russian sanctions. The relevance of the study lies in assessing transformations in the FEA vector of Russia in the context of expansion of these sanctions, initially introduced in 2014, and their strengthening after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine in 2022. The purpose of the article is to explore causes, directions, and consequences of the changing vector amid the growing restrictions. The subject of the study is current directions of the FEA and their transformation under the influence of the anti-Russian sanctions. The objectives of the article include: analysis of the present Russian FEA vectors; consideration of factors determining their change; modern trends in the foreign trade activities of the RF; assessment of promising directions of the transformation in the Russian FEA; assessment of the impact of the anti-Russian sanctions on the structure and vectors of Russia’s foreign trade activities; influence of the restrictions on the country’s banking sector. The study is based on the analysis of the legislative framework on the Russian FEA, relevant publications on the FEA and statistical information from the Federal Customs Service of the RF. The article considers the main provisions of the modern regulatory framework governing the FEA, foreign trade turn-over of Russia with friendly and unfriendly countries. In conclusion, the article notes the process of transformation of the Russian FEA which consists of its reorientation to states that did not support sanctions against Russia and further development of foreign economic relations with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), and other friendly states.

Foreign Trade as a Channel of Pandemic Transmission to the Agricultural Sector in Poland

The resilience of economic and social systems to shocks is one of the fundamental goals of sustainable development. One such event that seriously disrupted the global economy was the COVID-19 pandemic. It posed a direct threat to people’s health and lives and also caused an economic crisis. One of the effects of the crisis was the loss of stability in agricultural production with the resulting threat to food security. The foreign trade channel played a vital role in the mechanism of pandemic transmission to the agricultural sector in the world and Poland. This article aims to assess the significance of changes in international trade in agri-food commodities conducted by Polish entities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research period covers the years 2017–2021, focusing on the years 2020–2021, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a research period allows comparative analyses during the pandemic and pre-pandemic periods. The following research methods are used in this study: a critical analysis of the literature, the descriptive approach, the comparative method, and verbal logic and descriptive statistical methods. The data used in this article come from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and cover Poland’s foreign trade turnover according to the International Standard Trade Classification (SITC) used by the United Nations Statistics Department. The COVID-19 pandemic period did not cause a drastic collapse in Polish foreign trade. Short-lived blockages in the flow of goods, which appeared in Q2 2020, resulted in a 14% drop in the value of Polish exports. Already in Q3 2020, foreign trade turnover returned to pre-pandemic levels. In Q2 2020, the value of the exports of agri-food goods decreased by only 3%. For other commodity groups, the export values were 7–40% lower. Agri-food trade proved more resilient to pandemic shocks than trade in non-agricultural sectors. The foreign trade crisis affected the imports of goods more than exports.

Mechanism of customs regulation of the import of pharmaceutical products

One of the main features of the Russian pharmaceutical market is that imported pharmaceutical products significantly predominate in its structure according to the criterion of origin. The high share of imports of medicines is due to the need to provide the population with high-quality medicines, including vital medicines, analogues of which are not produced in the Russian Federation. In this regard, consideration of issues related to the customs regulation of imports of pharmaceutical products is particularly relevant. The mechanism of state management of the foreign trade sphere covers a variety of instruments that have a direct or indirect impact on current economic processes, the main of which is customs regulation. The priority area of the customs mechanism is the formation of a favorable economic environment for national production. The customs authorities of Russia are directly involved in regulating the import of pharmaceutical products in order to ensure the economic security of Russia, monitoring compliance with relevant prohibitions and restrictions by participants in foreign economic activity. In the course of the conducted research, it was found that the mechanism of customs regulation of the import of pharmaceutical products is crucial in the formation of foreign trade turnover of goods of the studied commodity group.

CONTEMPORARY STATISTICAL TRENDS OF FOREIGN TRADE BY SEA TRANSPORT BY COUNTRY GROUPS

Nino Abesadze E-mail: nino.abesadze@tsu.ge Associate Professor, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisis State University Tbilisi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6564-2771 Otar Abesadze E-mail: o.abesadze@gmail.com Associate Professor, Georgian National University SEU Tbilisi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1644-4995 Nino Paresashvili E-mail: nino.paresashvili@tsu.ge Associate Professor, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisis State university Tbilisi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7645-6491 Natalia Robitashvili E-mail: nato.robitashvili@bsu.edu.ge Associate Professor, Batumi Shota Rustaveli State University Batumi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7645-6491 Abstract. At the modern stage of economic development, under the conditions of deepening globalization, the use of correct logistics is becoming more and more relevant, which plays an important role in the development of trade relations between countries and ensuring correct fragmentation of the economy. Today, the situation is such that the presence of certain threats in sea transportation determines the high risk of the possibility of an increase in transportation prices, which is why its influence on price volatility is quite strong. Based on the current situation, the research of maritime logistics issues is becoming more and more relevant in this regard, because the analysis of quantitative indicators of shipments, determination of risk expectations, detection of trends, identification of problems, etc. is an indicator of increasing the effectiveness of maritime logistics. This issue becomes even more important when the issue concerns the activation of trade relations with groups of different countries of the world by sea transport. This process is actively taking place in Georgia today, which is a prerequisite for diversification of transportation by different types of transport and increasing its intensity in the future, and there are signs of this in the country. As of today, the geographical area of trade relations of Georgia in terms of types of transport is wide, although the quantitative characteristics of foreign trade are differentiated according to individual countries and groups of countries. The main goal of the paper was to identify and analyze the statistical trends of Georgia's foreign trade relations with EU, CIS, BSEC, OECD, GUAM, and EFTA countries. During the stages of statistical research, the methods of statistical observation, gathering-grouping, and analysis are used in the research process. Therefore, the article discusses studies and analyzes the dynamics of foreign trade relations of Georgia with EU, CIS, BSEC, OECD, GUAM, and EFTA countries groups by sea transport. The main statistical indicators of foreign trade turnover, export-import, local export re-export, and the characteristics of the commodity structure are analyzed according to all indicators. The main statistical trends of foreign trade with non-specified country groups are identified and regularities are established. Relevant conclusions are made. Conclusions. Foreign trade relations in Georgia are primarily carried out by road transport, although marine transport with a 32.6% share firmly occupies the second place in dynamics;In exports, the advantage of the use of road transport is evident, compared to imports. EU, CIS, BSEC, OECD, GUAM, EFTA countries, the rate of foreign trade by sea transport is increasing;In 2016-2023, on average, the share of the EU in foreign trade by country groups increased by 5.3%.Changing trends are observed in case of exports of EU, BSEC, OECD countries groups. From 2019, the predominant growth of the BSEC indicator was revealed, but in 2023, the EU was again the highest indicator with a share of 67.4%9 in export relations.In the case of imports to the EU, CIS, BSEC, OECD, GUAM, EFTA countries, there is a pronounced trend: the European Union is the undisputed leader in the group of mentioned countries. In 2016-2023, the EU's share of maritime transport imports grew by an average of 2.6% annually. The growth of EU indicators is recorded in local exports, while a completely different picture was revealed in re-exports of sea transport, due to the intensification of trade relations with the CIS countries.From these EU, CIS, BSEC, OECD, GUAM, EFTA countries, Motor cars, Petroleum and petroleum oils are the most imported to Georgia, the share of which in imports is 68% and 32%. Copper ores and concentrates are the most exported, whose share in the motor exports of EU, CIS, BSEC, OECD, GUAM, EFTA is 38% and 17%. No significant changes have been observed in the commodity structure of both exports and imports in recent years. Key words: Trends, Sea Transport, Export, Import, Country Groups. JEL classification: C0

СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ КЫРГЫЗСТАНА В ЕАЭС

This article discusses the development of Kyrgyzstan in international economic relations and the advantages of integration in the Eurasian Economic Union. Based on the statistical data of Kyrgyzstan, an analysis of foreign trade in recent years and export-import operations with the EAEU countries has been carried out. As a result, the reasons for the decline in the republic's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU countries were established and measures were outlined for their further growth. A considerable contribution to the integration process of Kyrgyzstan with the Russian Federation is made by the russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund, which provides significant assistance in financing and lending for the modernization and formation of the Kyrgyz economy. To further promote effective integration projects, investments are needed through financing from the Eurasian Development Bank. Despite some problems and shortcomings from Kyrgyzstan's accession to the EAEU, the country is developing, and integration gives the national economy of the republic great opportunities for market openness, division of labor and international competition.

Beet sugar enterprises in Kazakhstan: balanced management, reserves

The goal is to analyze production indicators of sugar beets and sugar for 1990-2023, to recommend measures to increase volume of sugar industry products. Methods - statistical, on the basis of which primary data on production of beet raw materials and sugar, its consumption per capita, export and import, and foreign trade turnover are collected. Results - the authors note that development of beet-sugar subcomplex is accompanied by stable decrease in quantity of this product, resulting in reduction in acreage and decrease in yield. The deterioration of parameters is due to high cost and low profitability of crop produced, outdated technical base, the use of lowquality seeds, problems with irrigation, and insufficient capacity of sugar factories. The current situation has a direct impact on the demand for sugar, which is met through imports and raw sugar obtained from processing. State measures aimed to increase sugar from domestic raw materials, set out in the Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Sugar Industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2022-2026, were considered, in the framework of which it is provided to ensure the enterprises with unused agricultural land suitable for cultivating sugar beets within a radius of 150 kilometers to ensure their own raw materials taking into account the requests of the processors. Conclusions - the implementation of the set tasks will reduce sugar import dependence and saturate the domestic market with own products. At the same time, logistics issues, reducing cost of transporting finished products, and financing construction of railways need to be worked out.

FEATURES OF FOREIGN TRADE BETWEEN UKRAINE AND THE USA IN 2015-2023

Objective. The objective of the present study is to analyze the state and identify the features of the development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States in 2015-2023. Methods. The following methods and techniques of cognition were used: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction (to substantiate the importance and role of the United States in the development of Ukraine's foreign trade relations), analysis of series of dynamics (to identify trends and patterns of development, peculiarities of the dynamics of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States), graphical (to visualise the peculiarities of the development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States). Results. Based on the study of the status and peculiarities of development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the USA in 2015-2023, the author establishes that despite the fact that the history of development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the USA dates back to 1992, during 1992-2023, more than 100 different agreements were concluded between Ukraine and the USA, during the period under analysis, the USA was not the main foreign trade partner of Ukraine - the share of trade with the USA accounted for an average of 7.5% of Ukraine's foreign trade turnover. It is proved that during 2015-2023, foreign trade relations between the countries steadily developed and deepened, which was reflected in the growth of the share of foreign trade between the countries in the total foreign trade of Ukraine by 6.4%. It is established that during 2015-2021, the lion's share of foreign trade turnover between the countries was formed by foreign trade in goods, but starting from 2022 - by foreign trade in services (in 2022, foreign trade in services accounted for 82.1% of foreign trade between Ukraine and the United States, in 2023 - 76.9%). It was determined that in 2015-2023: the rate of growth of the volume of foreign trade in services of Ukraine and the USA was almost 6.5 times higher than the rate of growth of the volume of foreign trade in goods, as of 2023, foreign trade in services significantly exceeded foreign trade in goods in terms of volume; the balance of foreign trade in goods was negative and constantly growing; the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports was characterized by a constant tendency to decrease; the main articles of Ukrainian commodity exports to the USA were products made of cast iron or steel, iron and steel, preparations made from vegetables, fruits, nuts or other parts of plants; imports - means of transport, except railway or tram rolling stock; mineral fuel, petroleum products and products of their distillation; machines and mechanical devices, boilers, nuclear reactors, their parts; the balance of foreign trade in services was both positive (in 2015-2021) and negative (in 2022-2023); the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports significantly decreased by almost 0.93 points; the main articles of Ukrainian export of services to the USA were: air transport services; construction; services related to financial activities; financial services paid directly; auxiliary services in the field of financial activity; services related to patent activity; services in the field of telecommunications, computer and information services; computer services; information services; scientific and technical services; imports of Ukrainian services from the USA were: state and governmental services; auxiliary services in the field of financial activity; services related to financial activities; trade-related services and brokerage services other royalties.

International Trade in the Changing World: Economic and Statistical Analysis

Based on an analysis of the time series of the ratios of export, import, and foreign trade turnover to GDP, the article periodizes the dynamics of world trade from 1970 to 2023. The features of these indices that require attention when interpreting their changes are shown. The growth in the intensity of foreign trade was followed in the 1970s by its stagnation in the 1980s and then by a new growth which, in turn, was stopped by the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. After its end and until now, the growth in the intensity of international trade in the world as a whole has not resumed. Simultaneously, since 2014 there has been an increase in geopolitical fragmentation of the world trade. Nowadays, it manifests itself primarily in the rapid growth of turnover between Russia and China, further contraction of Russia’s turnover with EU countries, and a dramatic fall of China's share in the total U.S. import in 2023.Comparison of the ratios of export, import and foreign trade turnover to GDP with the KOF globalization index reveals synchroneity of changes in international trade and globalization as a whole. The common factor guiding the dynamics of both processes is a change in the world order, the breaking points of which are the crises generated by this change. The movement toward a multipolar world order is accompanied today by new strengthening of the barrier functions of state borders, resulting in a slowdown or reverse of globalization in its most vital domains, including international trade.

Vietnam's Foreign Trade in the second half of the XIX century and Russian Foreign Trade Interests

The article is devoted to the problems of the development of Vietnam's foreign trade relations during the second half of the XIX century. The analysis of the main foreign trade partners of Vietnam, the range of export and import, supply channels, volumes of foreign trade turnover, prices is presented. Special attention is paid to the policy of the European powers on the development of Vietnam's foreign trade relations. The main approaches of the Vietnamese authorities and traders to the organization of foreign trade relations with neighboring and European countries are noted. The characteristics of the main centers of trade in Vietnam, the peculiarities of the organization of trade in export and import goods, as well as the transportation of goods by land, sea and river routes are given. The views and approaches of the Russian authorities and entrepreneurs to the development of foreign trade relations of the Russian Empire with Vietnam are revealed. In particular, information is provided on the entry of Russian ships into the ports of Vietnam, as well as on the supply channels of Vietnamese goods to the Russian market. The article is based mainly on pre-revolutionary sources in Russian, French, English, Spanish and Vietnamese.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE EFFICIENCY OF GROWTH OF INNOVATIVE EXPORTS ON THE REDUCTION OF IMPORTS IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC AT THE PRESENT STAGE

This article emphasizes that the development of export and import opportunities using innovative technologies will help improve the competitiveness of products, as well as expand their presence in the global market. The article notes that over the past five years, the country's foreign trade turnover has remained stable, and the import of goods significantly exceeds the volume of exports, which can pose a threat to the economic security of the state. To solve this problem, it is proposed, first of all, to diversify sectors of the economy, introduce innovative technologies into production processes and actively expand export activities world market.

ТОРГОВО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ РОССИИ И ЕГИПТА

The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of trade between the Russian Federation and the Arab Republic of Egypt. The authors note the positive dynamics of trade turnover between the two countries over a period of more than twenty years, highlighting trends and stages in the development of mutual trade in 2002-2023. Such a long period of time allows us to draw reasonable conclusions. The novelty of the author's approach lies in the fact that in addition to the absolute indicators of Russian-Egyptian trade relations, the article considers relative indicators, such as the share of mutual trade in the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation and Egypt, as well as the comparative dynamics of Russian exports to Egypt, imports from Egypt and GDP of our country. The authors show that if the absolute indicators of trade turnover between the two countries are characterized by positive dynamics, then when considering the relative indicators of trade between the two countries, such a trend is not so clearly manifested. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the dynamics of the structure of Russian exports to Egypt and imports from Egypt.
 As a result of the study, the authors conclude that there are quite big problems in the development of Russian-Egyptian trade cooperation. These include the unidirectional nature of these relations and the low level of investment cooperation. In addition, Russian exports prevail in mutual trade, and grain supplies have a significant share in it. The weak diversification of the structure of Russian-Egyptian trade hinders the development of mutual trade between the Russian Federation and Egypt. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that the Arab Republic of Egypt pursues a multi-vector foreign trade policy, in which Russia is far from being the highest priority.

VECTORS OF RUSSIAN-MONGOLIAN COOPERATION

The article notes the dominance of multi-vectorism in Mongolia’s foreign policy at the present stage, which is due to the complexity and contradictory nature of the geopolitical situation, as well as the expectation of increased risks of ensuring the national security of the Mongolian People’s Republic. In this regard, the authorities of the republic are strengthening cooperation with the so-called «third neighbor» (USA, Japan, South Korea, Australia, EU countries, etc.) in the hope of balancing the influence of the two main neighbors: Russia and China.In relations with China, Mongolia’s growing dependence on China in the economic sphere (China steadily retains the first place in the MNR’s foreign trade turnover) raises concerns. Until a certain point, such a role was played by Mongolia’s second neighbor - Russia (more precisely, the Soviet Union, where the republic was integrated practically at the level of union republics), which fully ensured the republic’s economic and political security. When forming the strategy of cooperation between Russia and Mongolia, the Russian side has to take into account the concerns of the Mongolian side: the growing volume of economic cooperation between Russia and China significantly increases Mongolia’s fears about Russia’s inability to resist Chinese influence. In this regard, Mongolia positions the expansion of cooperation with «third neighbors» as an integral part of ensuring its national interests.

CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR EXPANDING THE EXPORT OF DOMESTIC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES OF ASIA

The article analyzes the current state and prospects of development of exports of domestic industrial products to the rapidly developing countries of Asia, in particular to Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh and the Philippines. It is shown that today Ukraine is a full-fledged participant in the globalization process, and its further development will largely depend on the priorities of its foreign economic integration policy, the formation and implementation of which should be based on building strategic relations with both individual Asian countries and various regional associations. It is substantiated that the need to intensify Ukraine’s cooperation with Asian countries is caused not only by the global transformation in the balance of power of the world economy, but also by the need for export diversification of foreign trade in the context of Russian aggression. The analysis shows that by 2022, the demand for domestic industrial products in the markets of Indonesia and Thailand had positive dynamics and ensured, albeit not a significant increase in the export of Ukrainian high-tech goods. Despite the positive trade balance, demand for domestic industrial products in the markets of Bangladesh and the Philippines was characterized by a gradual decline until 2022. In general, the share of domestic industrial products in the structure of exports to these countries is quite low: Indonesia - 0.7%, Thailand - 3.0%, Bangladesh - 4.3%, and the Philippines - 9.9%. At the same time, the share of industrial products from these countries in the structure of Ukrainian imports was much higher, in particular: Indonesia - 20.0%, Thailand - 82.1%, Bangladesh - 96.8%, and the Philippines - 92.4%. Due to the large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the article estimates the losses in foreign trade between Ukraine and rapidly developing Asian countries in 2022. In particular, it is shown that the volume of foreign trade turnover between Ukraine and Indonesia will decrease by 39.2% compared to 2021, Thailand - by 35.3%, Bangladesh - by 48.6%, and the Philippines - by 38.6%. Based on the analysis of scientific and statistical literature, it is established that the determining instrument of trade policy of the rapidly developing Asian countries is customs tariffs, various preferential regimes and benefits for industrial products in accordance with various bilateral and regional trade agreements. In order to further develop partnership relations between Ukraine and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, it is proposed to intensify and strengthen the dialogue on deepening trade and economic cooperation through the system of trade policy instruments. In terms of further research, additional studies are proposed to determine the prospects for concluding bilateral trade agreements on FTAs between individual countries and developing a long-term strategy for trade and economic cooperation.

Dynamics and Prospects for Forestry Development in Russia and China: Cross-Country Comparisons

The purpose of the study is to assess the possibility of changing the trade exchange of timber products between Russia and China, caused by external circumstances. First, the growing sanctions pressure on both countries; secondly, the cessation of roundwood exports from Russia to China from the beginning of 2022, which accounted for up to 60 % of the total foreign trade turnover in timber products between the countries; thirdly, a special military operation of Russia since February 2022. All this led to a severance of logistical and financial ties and complicated the economic state of the forest complex of both countries in 2022. The article identifies and analyzes the most significant indicators that affect the efficiency of the development of forestry in Russia and China, as the basis of the forest industry. Including dynamics and trends in forest areas in both countries for 2010– 2021. which made it possible to show their multidirectional nature: in Russia, forest areas decreased by 0.37 %, in China - increased by 9.87 %. This indicates that contradictions between the owner of the forest and the forest business are growing in Russia, and vice versa in China. It has been established that the total forest reserves in Russia are 4.7 times greater than in China, and the forest reserves per hectare of forest area are 1.35 times greater. This is the competitive advantage of Russian forests. But the study of the trend of their changes indicates a reduction in forest reserves over the study period in Russia, and an increase in China. The quality of forest management in our country needs to be improved. It is noted that Russian and Chinese forests have been degraded. The reasons for this are different. Different outcomes and factors influencing reforestation in the countries studied. It is shown that in Russia during the study period, not only deforestation was observed, but also forest degradation, i.e. deterioration of the species composition, reduction of the species diversity of forest ecosystems. The studied dynamics and trends in the parameters of development of the forestry sector of the two countries made it possible to determine the directions for deepening economic cooperation in the field of forestry relations in the context of sanctions pressure on Russia and China, aimed at their expansion, taking into account the observance of mutual interests.

Comprehensive assessment of the development prospects of Russian regions (using the example of the Altai Territory)

The current geopolitical situation requires more attention to the development of Russian regions due to the need to develop new sales markets, as well as the urgent need to diversify Russian exports and increase the share of finished products. The purpose of the presented study is to test the author’s methodology for an integrated approach to assessing the prospects for the development of Russian regions, which was originally created to assess the prospects of modern trade unions. The empirical basis of the practical part of the study was the data of the analysis of general and particular indicators of the development of the Altai Territory. In the course of the study, the high efficiency of the development of the Altai Territory was revealed, which is confirmed by the growth of most general and particular indicators that make it possible to most fully describe the socio-economic component of the development of this region. During the study period (from 2015 to 2021), the foreign trade turnover of the Altai Territory increased from 927.8 to 1828.90 million US dollars, respectively. In turn, net exports showed mixed dynamics with a 9.9 % drop in 2016 due to lower prices for hydrocarbon energy carriers and a signifi cant drop in 2020 (29.4 %) due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It should be noted that, in addition to other foreign trade indicators, we analyzed the export-import coverage ratio, which shows how many times the region’s exports exceed its imports. Based on the results of the analysis, it was revealed that the export-to-import coverage ratio had multidirectional dynamics. So, in the period from 2015 to 2017, there was a drop in the designated indicator from 250 to 199 %, then in 2019 this indicator in the Altai Territory reached its maximum value of 229.71. Then, by 2021, there was a sharp decrease in the value of this indicator to the level of 168.61 %, which indicates the preservation of a positive trade balance throughout the entire study period.

Implementation of the National Security Strategy by analyzing the foreign trade turnover of products of the Russian chemical complex

Subject. This article discusses the issues of development of foreign economic relations in the context of international sanctions. Objectives. The article aims to assess Russia's position in the global market of chemical products. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of systems, comparative, structural, and logical analyses. Results. The article systematizes data on exports and imports of chemical products for 2022, and identifies priority areas of cooperation for Russia. Conclusions. In 2022, the ratio of trade turnover for exports and imports of chemical products, which is favorable for Russia, makes it possible to support the development of the industry. Reducing Russia's dependence on imported technologies and components will contribute to ensuring the country's economic security.

The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Export of Cereal Crops in Foreign Trade Activities Individual Countries

Aims: The aim is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the dynamics of realizing the foreign trade potential of companies based on vector autoregression and the formation of strategic priorities for the companies’ economic activities. Methods: The research methodology is based on the application of methods of time series analysis and impulse response functions. The Granger causality test was used for the linear causal relationship between the analyzed indicators. The study used statistical data for the period 2001–2020 in the annual section of the World Bank Trade Map portal. Results: It is shown that the innovative development of the country contributes to an increase in non-raw material trade with countries geographically close to its borders. It was revealed that the level of agricultural development of the importing country influences the import of cereals with a lag effect of 3–4 years. Justified: The intensification of export-import operations contributes to the development of the production potential of countries as a whole, creating great potential for enhancing the economic activity of agricultural companies and creating incentives for the development of the economies of the country's regions. It has been determined that the foreign trade system is an equilibrium system that returns to a stable state 2-3 years after the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors. Novelty: The novelty of the study lies in the assessment of the dynamic impact of the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors on macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the specifics of the foreign trade turnover of countries. Conclusion: The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy for the development of foreign trade activities, including grain crops for both countries, to realize more reliable forecasting of foreign economic transactions with a lag of 3-5 years. Doi: 10.28991/HEF-2023-04-04-08 Full Text: PDF