The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Export of Cereal Crops in Foreign Trade Activities Individual Countries

Abstract

Aims: The aim is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the dynamics of realizing the foreign trade potential of companies based on vector autoregression and the formation of strategic priorities for the companies’ economic activities. Methods: The research methodology is based on the application of methods of time series analysis and impulse response functions. The Granger causality test was used for the linear causal relationship between the analyzed indicators. The study used statistical data for the period 2001–2020 in the annual section of the World Bank Trade Map portal. Results: It is shown that the innovative development of the country contributes to an increase in non-raw material trade with countries geographically close to its borders. It was revealed that the level of agricultural development of the importing country influences the import of cereals with a lag effect of 3–4 years. Justified: The intensification of export-import operations contributes to the development of the production potential of countries as a whole, creating great potential for enhancing the economic activity of agricultural companies and creating incentives for the development of the economies of the country's regions. It has been determined that the foreign trade system is an equilibrium system that returns to a stable state 2-3 years after the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors. Novelty: The novelty of the study lies in the assessment of the dynamic impact of the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors on macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the specifics of the foreign trade turnover of countries. Conclusion: The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy for the development of foreign trade activities, including grain crops for both countries, to realize more reliable forecasting of foreign economic transactions with a lag of 3-5 years. Doi: 10.28991/HEF-2023-04-04-08 Full Text: PDF