Foreign Trade Partners Research Articles

Зовнішня торговельна позиція України у ЄС: вивчення тенденцій зміни у період дії воєнного стану

As is well known, an important component of Ukraine's European integration is trade cooperation with EU countries, which has provided Ukrainian enterprises with simplified access to the markets of the European Union. Amid the deepening of these integration processes, the article analyses the main foreign trade partners of Ukraine. In order to study trends in changes in foreign trade during the period of martial law, the article uses 3 analytical periods: 1st quarter 2020, 1st quarter 2022, 1st quarter 2024. Cluster analysis implemented in SPSS from IBM was used to form groups of foreign trade partners. During the studied period, Poland and Germany belong to the group of the largest foreign trade partners of Ukraine in the EU. Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are included in the second group of countries in terms of the volume of foreign trade operations, which, however, in the 1st quarter in 2022, due to Ukraine's restrictions on foreign trade, the volume of export-import operations with Ukraine was reduced in to cluster 3 (Romania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, France, Hungary). Cluster 4 is characterized by the lowest volume of export-import transactions with Ukraine, and it includes the last group of coun- tries (Sweden, Malta, Portugal, Latvia, Ireland, Greece, Croatia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Denmark, Esto- nia, Finland, Slovenia). In terms of resuming the activity of domestic enterprises, which was suspended since the beginning of the war, the adaptability of the Ukrainian economy, changes in global supply chains and their final reorientation to EU countries, in the 1st quarter 2024, the distance between foreign trade indicators of Ukraine and individual EU countries increased. This led to the division of cluster 2 into two groups of countries: cluster 2.1 (Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania), cluster 2.2 (Greece, the Czech Republic, France, Slovakia, Bulgaria). This provides grounds for the development of trade relations with EU coun- tries, sectoral integration into the EU Internal Market, etc.

Prospects for Economic Cooperation between Russia and China in the Current Geopolitical Situation

Introduction. The article examines the topical issues of relations between the two countries amidst the current foreign policy situation. Relations between Russia and China are of great importance for both countries as well as for the global political and economic situation as a whole. Cooperation between these two largest states plays an important role in the formation of multipolarity in the world arena, weakening unipolar tendencies. The article analyzes the main aspects of cooperation between Russia and China, the components of their mutually beneficial partnership, and considers the challenges and prospects that both countries face in the changing geopolitical situation. Particular attention is paid to the economic and political aspects of interaction between Russia and China, and potential ways to strengthen and expand cooperation in the future are identified.Materials and methods. To analyze the current dynamics of bilateral relations, analytical methods of processing statistical data provided by government agencies of the Russian Federation were used, as well as the method of mirror statistics in order to identify the positions and shares of Russia in the geographical structure of China's foreign trade partners based on information provided by the State Customs Service of China. The paper also presents data obtained through expert assessment and social surveys. To conduct a systemic analysis, the authors applied the methods of induction, deduction, generalization, synthesis, and comparison.Results of the study. In the course of the study, the foreign policy agenda of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China was analyzed, and the areas of cooperation that are of greatest mutual interest to the two countries were identified - trade, investment, implementation of joint infrastructure, energy and other projects in the real sector of the economy.In addition, the authors of the article analyzed the dynamics and structure of bilateral trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China; factors of growth in trade turnover, Russian exports to China and Russian imports from China were identified. Next, the largest Russian-Chinese investment projects in the automotive industry, fuel and energy complex and infrastructure were considered. As a result, an assessment of the prospects for further development of bilateral trade and joint projects in the concerned areas was made.An analysis of the data obtained as part of a sociological survey was conducted, which made it possible to identify the most popular areas of cooperation between the two countries that are of greatest interest to the population of the PRC in the foresee[1] able future, including the creation of new transport corridors within the framework of the conjugation of the One Belt, One Road projects and the Eurasian Economic Union.Discussion and conclusion. Economic relations play a key role in the agenda of bilateral cooperation between Russia and China and have a multifaceted nature. The projected economic growth of Russian-Chinese cooperation in 2024 and beyond presupposes diversification of the structure of bilateral trade and an increase in the volume of goods and services offered. In the context of this forecast, special attention is paid to the focus on increasing gas exports from Russia to China, which leads to an expected increase in the share of gas supplies compared to oil supplies. In addition, an important factor contributing to the stimulation of economic growth is the increase in the volume of Russian agricultural exports to China, as well as the development of cooperation in the services sector.In order to achieve even more impressive results of economic cooperation with Russia's eastern neighbor, it is necessary to pay attention to solving urgent foreign trade problems of a structural nature, namely, working on export diversification and increasing the competitiveness of the expanding range of goods and services supplied to the Asian market. It is also necessary to provide comprehensive measures to support promising manufacturing and service sectors for export. The increase in trade turnover between the two countries stimulates the development of investment partnerships and the growth in the number of jointly implemented projects in the production and infrastructure sectors, which, in turn, creates conditions for deepening interregional cooperation and the formation of a more predictable and stable world order in the foreseeable future.

The intensity of regional food trade among the Western Balkan countries during periods of crisis

This study explores the intensity of food trade among the Western Balkan (WB) countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) during periods of crisis, emphasizing the impact of COVID-19 and the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on regional trade dynamics. The impact of this crisis was measured over three analyzed years: 2018, representing a reference year for comparison, then 2020 as the year affected by COVID-19, and 2022, being affected by the pandemic as well as the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. All data collected are from the “Trade Statistics for International Business Development Database”. Conclusions about the intensity of exchange of agricultural and food products within the WB region were obtained by calculating Regional Intensity of Trade of Export (RITE) and Regional Intensity of Trade of Import (RITI). Higher values than 1 indicate intensity in trade or dominance of trade in specific products with a particular region compared with the trade with the world. In the case of trade among the WB countries, the COVID-19 crisis did not affect the increase in trade volume. However, there was an increase in intra-regional trade by about 50% when compared with 2020 and 2022. The RITE coefficients for all countries except Albania were greater than 1, indicating intensified export of agricultural and food products to the WB region compared with their global export. The RITI index is very important in crisis, as it somewhat answers the question of who "feeds" the country during crises. All WB countries had the RITI indices greater than 1, indicating a higher intensity of food imports from the region compared with the world. According to this research, the RIT coefficients measured generally declined in the years of crises, meaning that the countries shifted their export focus to other regions but still the most significant foreign and intense trade partners in agricultural and food products were countries from the region.

DETERMINANTS OF EXTERNAL ECONOMIC SECURITY OF UKRAINE IN 2010-2022

Objective. The objective of the present study is to analyze the level of economic security in general and foreign economic security of Ukraine in 2010-2021, in particular, to identify disincentive factors and stimulators of foreign economic security in 2010-2022. Methods. The following methods and techniques of cognition are applied: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction (to justify the complementary relationship between economic and foreign economic security), analysis of series of dynamics (to identify the state and trends inherent in indicators of economic and foreign economic security of Ukraine), tabular (for visual presentation of factual data on the level and dynamics of economic and foreign economic security of Ukraine in 2010-2021 and 2010-2022, respectively ). Results. On the basis of the conducted study of the level of economic security in general and external economic security of Ukraine in 2010-2021, in particular, it is determined that during the period under the analysis, the level of economic security of Ukraine was on average 40%, foreign economic security – 35%, which corresponds to a dangerous state. At the same time, foreign economic security is proposed to be considered as the state of protection of the country's national economic interests in the field of foreign economic relations, which is based on the country's ability to ensure sustainable economic growth and increase the welfare of the population in the long term; protect their national resources and markets from external threats; influence world economic processes and defend their interests in the international arena. It is identified that the factors stimulating foreign economic security of Ukraine in 2010-2022 were: high level of openness of the economy; the specifics of export-import operations – the value of exports significantly exceeded the value of imports, a high level of focus on one geographical direction was observed – one foreign trade partner, one product; low level of processing of goods and specialization in trade in raw goods with a low level of processing; low level of utilization of the transit capacities of the gas transportation and oil transportation system; sufficiently high level of import dependence; insufficient level of diversification of the economy. It is determined that despite the lack of factors stimulating the country's foreign economic security during 2010-2022, the following positive trends are observed during this period: decrease in the openness of the national economy, decrease in the level of foreign trade dependence of Ukraine on leading partner countries, decrease in the level of dependence on export volumes countries from the leading product (product group).

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND IMPORT OPERATIONS DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE AND THE EU

Objective. The objective of the article is to analyze the current trends in export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU and to determine their features during the large-scale invasion. Methods. During the research, the following methods are applied: the dialectical method of learning processes and phenomena (for a qualitative study of the dynamics of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); graphical method (for graphical presentation of current dynamics and forecast values of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); index (to estimate the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU in the total volume of imports and exports of Ukraine, respectively); one-factor and three-factor autoregressive forecasting method (for forecasting the volume and share of export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU). Results. Before the large-scale invasion, the EU was one of Ukraine's key foreign trade partners. As of 2021, the EU accounted for 50% of Ukrainian exports. In the case of imports, the share of the EU was 63% of all imports to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the share of exports from Ukraine to the EU has increased to 70%, underscoring the importance of the EU as a major trading partner that not only contributes to economic stability, but also provides important logistics routes for the export of Ukrainian goods to global markets. Forecasting the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU shows that, despite the decrease in exports and imports due to the large-scale invasion, the share of exports to the EU in total exports of Ukraine will increase, while the share of imports from the EU will remain constant. This testifies to the stability and importance of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU in the difficult conditions of modern global challenges. The executed forecast is based on the assumption that the large-scale invasion will continue. If the situation changes and the period of post-war recovery comes, it will be necessary to build a new forecast that will reflect new prospects for economic growth and integration of Ukraine into the world economy.

FEATURES OF FOREIGN TRADE BETWEEN UKRAINE AND THE USA IN 2015-2023

Objective. The objective of the present study is to analyze the state and identify the features of the development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States in 2015-2023. Methods. The following methods and techniques of cognition were used: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction (to substantiate the importance and role of the United States in the development of Ukraine's foreign trade relations), analysis of series of dynamics (to identify trends and patterns of development, peculiarities of the dynamics of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States), graphical (to visualise the peculiarities of the development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States). Results. Based on the study of the status and peculiarities of development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the USA in 2015-2023, the author establishes that despite the fact that the history of development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the USA dates back to 1992, during 1992-2023, more than 100 different agreements were concluded between Ukraine and the USA, during the period under analysis, the USA was not the main foreign trade partner of Ukraine - the share of trade with the USA accounted for an average of 7.5% of Ukraine's foreign trade turnover. It is proved that during 2015-2023, foreign trade relations between the countries steadily developed and deepened, which was reflected in the growth of the share of foreign trade between the countries in the total foreign trade of Ukraine by 6.4%. It is established that during 2015-2021, the lion's share of foreign trade turnover between the countries was formed by foreign trade in goods, but starting from 2022 - by foreign trade in services (in 2022, foreign trade in services accounted for 82.1% of foreign trade between Ukraine and the United States, in 2023 - 76.9%). It was determined that in 2015-2023: the rate of growth of the volume of foreign trade in services of Ukraine and the USA was almost 6.5 times higher than the rate of growth of the volume of foreign trade in goods, as of 2023, foreign trade in services significantly exceeded foreign trade in goods in terms of volume; the balance of foreign trade in goods was negative and constantly growing; the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports was characterized by a constant tendency to decrease; the main articles of Ukrainian commodity exports to the USA were products made of cast iron or steel, iron and steel, preparations made from vegetables, fruits, nuts or other parts of plants; imports - means of transport, except railway or tram rolling stock; mineral fuel, petroleum products and products of their distillation; machines and mechanical devices, boilers, nuclear reactors, their parts; the balance of foreign trade in services was both positive (in 2015-2021) and negative (in 2022-2023); the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports significantly decreased by almost 0.93 points; the main articles of Ukrainian export of services to the USA were: air transport services; construction; services related to financial activities; financial services paid directly; auxiliary services in the field of financial activity; services related to patent activity; services in the field of telecommunications, computer and information services; computer services; information services; scientific and technical services; imports of Ukrainian services from the USA were: state and governmental services; auxiliary services in the field of financial activity; services related to financial activities; trade-related services and brokerage services other royalties.

Vietnam's Foreign Trade in the second half of the XIX century and Russian Foreign Trade Interests

The article is devoted to the problems of the development of Vietnam's foreign trade relations during the second half of the XIX century. The analysis of the main foreign trade partners of Vietnam, the range of export and import, supply channels, volumes of foreign trade turnover, prices is presented. Special attention is paid to the policy of the European powers on the development of Vietnam's foreign trade relations. The main approaches of the Vietnamese authorities and traders to the organization of foreign trade relations with neighboring and European countries are noted. The characteristics of the main centers of trade in Vietnam, the peculiarities of the organization of trade in export and import goods, as well as the transportation of goods by land, sea and river routes are given. The views and approaches of the Russian authorities and entrepreneurs to the development of foreign trade relations of the Russian Empire with Vietnam are revealed. In particular, information is provided on the entry of Russian ships into the ports of Vietnam, as well as on the supply channels of Vietnamese goods to the Russian market. The article is based mainly on pre-revolutionary sources in Russian, French, English, Spanish and Vietnamese.

Management of state property of the Agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Belarus

The purpose of the work was to analyze the management of state property of the Agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Belarus. In the Republic of Belarus, a decentralized (sectoral) system of ownership supervision has been formed, when shares are managed by ministries, concerns, and committees that were in charge of state-owned enterprises before their transformation into joint-stock companies. In addition to the sectoral system, there are centralized and dual systems, which are actively used by our key foreign trade partners such as the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. Currently, in the Agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus there is a high share of state-owned enterprises and organizations with a state share in the authorized capital. An analysis of the state share of ownership in the authorized capital of OJSC shows that in agricultural organizations in recent years it has consistently been in the range of 70–80 %, and in industrial and service organizations – 40–50 %. At the same time, there is a need to ensure an increase in the operating effi ciency of many OJSC, including by improving management tools for enterprises and organizations, including owner supervision. The article substantiates promising directions for improving owner’s supervision, including: organizational –the transition from a sectoral to a centralized model of organizing owner’s supervision in the Agro-industrial complex; economic – development of the corporate governance system in business companies; administrative and economic – development of a methodology for assessing the eff ectiveness of state property management in the Agro-industrial complex. The main methodological approaches to assessing the economic effi ciency of state property management in the Agro-industrial complex of the Republic are highlighted: 1) based on quantitative or qualitative indicators; 2) focused on the object or subject of management; taking into account only economic indicators or based on indicators of social effi ciency and public utility. The use of the results of the proposed research is aimed at improving owner supervision and will improve the efficiency of functioning of business entities of the Agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus.

Russia and Türkiye are on the path to progress in national anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems.

In 2022-2023, a number of international organizations of the global anti-money laundering and terrorist financing network, as well as financial intelligence units of the Western bloc countries, refused to cooperate with Russia. In these circumstances, it is necessary to expand international cooperation with friendly countries, including Turkey, a key foreign policy and trade partner of modern Russia. The article examines the national anti-money laundering and terrorist financing systems of Russia and Turkey. A comparative analysis of their technical compliance with the Recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF) is carried out. The assessments of the effectiveness of the systems received by the countries within the framework of the 4th round of mutual assessments in 2019, as well as key countermeasures, are compared. General scientific research methods were used. The information was based on mutual assessment reports and progress reports from Russia and Turkey, as well as national laws on combating money laundering and terrorist financing. The comparative analysis was carried out for 2019-2023, during which countries made efforts to improve their national systems. As a result of the study, it was concluded that both countries have achieved significant progress in the development of national anti-money laundering and terrorist financing systems. Estimated 2023-2024 they comply or significantly comply with all FATF recommendations. At the same time, according to a number of recommendations, countries are superior or inferior to each other, which allows for the exchange of experience for further progress in this area. Thus, Russia is interested in Turkey's experience in establishing deterrent liability measures, identifying public officials and monitoring their operations, and interacting with third parties.

On the issue of state property management in the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus

In the Republic of Belarus, a decentralized system of ownership supervision has been formed, when shares are managed by ministries, concerns, and committees that were in charge of state-owned en-terprises before their transformation into joint-stock companies. In addition to the sectoral system, there are centralized and dual systems, which are actively used by our key foreign trade partners — the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. Currently, in the agro-industrial com-plex of the Republic of Belarus there is a high share of state-owned enterprises and organizations with a state share in the authorized capital. An analysis of the state share of ownership in the author-ized capital of OJSC shows that in agricultural organizations in recent years it has consistently been in the range of 70–80 %, and in industrial and service organizations — 40–50 %. At the same time, the operating effi ciency of many JSCs is not at a high enough level, which predetermines the need and importance of improving management tools for enterprises and organizations, including owner su-pervision. The article substantiates promising directions for improving owner’s supervision, including: organizational — the transition from an industry-based to a centralized model of organizing owner’s supervision in the agro-industrial complex; economic — development of the corporate governance system in business companies; administrative and economic — development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of state property management in the agro-industrial complex. The use of the results of the proposed study is aimed at improving owner supervision and will improve the efficiency of functioning of business entities of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus.

The Role of Russian Non-Resource Export in Technological Sovereignty Achievement of African Countries

The modern trends of world economic development include complicated digital and transformation processes, which create a wide range of risks and challenges to the actual positions of countries in the world architecture. Also, they open new opportunities for competitiveness and welfare improvement of any state or regional groups, in particular by their technological sovereignty creation. The share of African countries in the world trade accounts for 3%, however, the interest in this region, as a foreign trade partner, is increasing. This is driven by the intensity of considerable reserves of natural resources, existing and potential in the sphere of renewable energy sources and of local production involvement in global value chains. All this stimulates to elaborate on their own technologies, mitigating the extent of regional economic dependence on external factors. Thus, the African region continues to attract investors, and from this position, Russia is not the exception. At the moment, amid sanctions and diversification of export flows, African countries are actual for Russian producers and suppliers from the implementation process. This paper highlights the key positions of Russian non-resource commodities to African countries, defines the major markets of sales and also to analyze the role of Russian export in African countries’ technological sovereignty achievement.

Cooperation with international organizations as a factor in increasing the state’s competitiveness and modernization of public administration in the field of regional development (the example of Turkey)

The article is devoted to analyzing the role of international organizations in enhancing the competitiveness of the state and modernizing public administration in regional development. The authors examined how the “policy transfer” takes place and affects the state’s competitiveness in Turkey’s example. Based on the concept of Rose on “policy transfer” and the study of E. Ertugal on the interaction of Turkey with the EU in this sphere, the authors explored the causes and methods of policy transfer of regional development; what roles do international organizations, such as the EU and the OECD, play in this process, what stages and results of policy transfer of regional development in Turkey. The authors characterized the features of the stages of policy transfer of regional development, determined the dynamics of integration of Turkey to the EU depending on the adaptation of its regional standards, legislation, and institutions to the European requirements, and increased Turkey’s competitiveness level. This improved the image of Turkey as a reliable and progressive partner and increased its attractiveness to foreign investors, trade partners, and tourists. Policy transfers of regional development also contributed to the modernization and diversification of Turkey’s economy, as it stimulated the development of regions that traditionally lagged the central and coastal areas. This enabled the country to use its potential in agriculture, industry, energy, transport, education, science, and innovation. This also helped to reduce regional inequality, poverty, and social tension, especially among the Kurdish population. The authors note that policy transfer of regional development also contributed to the enhancement of democracy and decentralization of governance in Turkey, as it strengthened the role and responsibility of regional and local authorities, as well as involved the public and civil society organizations in the process of planning and implementation of regional policy. This also enabled the country to increase its transparency, objectivity, and openness and prevent and fight corruption and clientelism. Keywords: cooperation, international organizations, competitiveness, public administration, regional development.

ОЦЕНКА ИМПОРТНОЙ ПРИВЛЕКАТЕЛЬНОСТИ СТРАН АРАВИЙСКОГО ПОЛУОСТРОВА (НА ПРИМЕРЕ ОБЪЕДИНЕННЫХ АРАБСКИХ ЭМИРАТОВ)

This article is devoted to the analysis of the market of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula in order to assess the import attractiveness of the region as a foreign trade partner for Russia. The relevance of this study lies in the fact that currently the Russian Federation is under economic pressure after the sanctions imposed by Western countries and the United States and is forced to look for new trading partners. That is why a friendly country, the United Arab Emirates, was chosen for the study. The article provides a detailed analysis of the country’s trade and economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation and unemployment, and also examines in detail the structure of exports and imports, transport infrastructure and customs procedures as decisive factors for deciding on the attractiveness of this region as a foreign trade partner for the Russian Federation.

Зовнішньоекономічна торговельна діяльність України: аналіз, тенденції та перспективи розвитку

Foreign trade relations play a key role in the national economy, as they are the basis for the international exchange of goods and services between different countries. Therefore, the study of the state and prospects for the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade activity is relevant task for further effective economic growth. This study is devoted to the study of the impact of foreign trade relations on the economic development of Ukraine. The main functions, principles and rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which ensures the competitiveness of products in the world market, are disclosed. The main foreign trade partners of the country are studied, the structure of exports and imports of goods and the state of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for the last three years are considered. The research model is based on an integrated approach, using methods such as analytical, statistical, analysis and synthesis. The research work analyzes the theoretical aspect of foreign trade relations, the state of Ukraine’s foreign trade and develops recommendations for their improvement. The practical significance lies in the analysis of the current state of Ukraine’s foreign trade relations, identifying the main problems and identifying possible ways to solve them. This makes it possible to define precise directions for the further development of foreign economic activity, to develop effective strategies for attracting foreign investment, expanding export opportunities, as well as strengthening trade partnerships with other countries. The social effects of this article are to strengthen economic development and increase Ukraine’s competitiveness in the international arena.

Stronger and more just? Recent reforms of China’s intellectual property rights system and their implications

Purpose Since 2015, China has made efforts to reform its intellectual property rights (IPR) system to better protect and stimulate innovation. These reforms are a result of the demand for more stringent intellectual property (IP) protection from China’s domestic, innovative industries and a measure to ease the pressure exerted by its foreign trading partners, particularly against the background of the US-China trade dispute that started at the beginning of 2018. This paper summarizes these reforms and their implications. Design/methodology/approach This paper combines a variety of sources, including academic articles, government websites, news reports, industry surveys and expert opinions, to offer insights in China’s IPR system and its recent reforms. Findings This paper summarizes and discusses (1) the state’s law amendments, including the 2015 amendment of the “Law on Promoting the Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements”, the second amendment of the “Anti-Unfair Competition Law” with regard to trade secret protection, the fourth amendment of the “Patent Law”, and the legislations and regulations addressing the criticisms of the US administration over China’s so-called “forced” technology transfer policies; (2) the establishment of the specialized IP courts and tribunals since 2014; (3) the restructuring of the State IP Office; and (4) the issuing of an “Outline for Building an IPR Powerhouse (2021–2035)”. Originality/value This paper highlights China’s efforts to make its IPR system stronger and more just. It also discusses international observers’ reactions and pinpoints specific areas for further improvement.

Nigeria is a promising foreign trade partner

The article examines Nigeria’s potential for the development of foreign trade cooperation, including in the tourism sector and the hotel business.

Destination trade credit and exports: Evidence from cross-country panel data

We examine the impact of destination trade credit (DTC) on exports, using cross-country panel data for 2000–2018 and focusing on financing by foreign trade partners. We find DTC promotes a country’s exports disproportionately more in liquidity-dependent industries, a consistent result after addressing endogeneity and various robustness tests. DTC mainly promotes trade by increasing export quantity, while lowering export prices and export varieties. Further, the effect is greater if the level of financial development of the source country is lower, but smaller if the product complexity of industries is higher. During the 2008 global financial crisis, DTC also contributes to export expansion, but the effect is relatively small.

EXPORT-IMPORT COMMODITY FLOWS OF TEXTILE AND CLOTHES OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS: BALANCE ANALYSIS AND DETERMINATION OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIDES

The article analyzes the export-import flows of goods of textiles and clothing in Belarus in the areas of trade: on the one hand, with the countries - members of the EAEU, on the other hand, with countries outside the EAEU. The results of a comparative study of the dynamics and changes in the structure of foreign trade indicators in the context of commodity groups, goods and main foreign trade partners are presented. The author noted the factors and causes that have a negative impact on the dynamics of the balance of development of foreign trade in Belarusian goods of textiles and clothing. The positive and negative aspects of foreign trade in goods of textiles and clothing of Belarus are determined to develop practical recommendations and solutions.

Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions

Shipping accidents and environmental disasters pose a challenge to the reliability of maritime supply chains. Since international trade intensifies without a significant diversification of the supply routes the risk of transportation perturbations caused by extreme events like tropical cyclones may increase conceivably. In this study we model the regional and global economic repercussions of typhoon-induced short-term transport disruptions of West Pacific trading routes. Using a numerical agent-based shock model with myopic local optimization, we compute the response of more than 7,000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million trade and supply relations. We compute that transportation perturbations, due to West Pacific typhoons between 2000–2020, may cause local oversupply and scarcity situations as well as the associated regional price changes. In our model economic agents respond to these price signals and temporary supply bottlenecks by rescheduling and increasing their demand. As a consequence from our numerical analysis, we find annual median export volume to increase in all trade blocs due to a decrease of export prices, but substantial regional differences emerge. Further we show that resilience of export to typhoon-induced perturbations increase in China, ASEAN, East Asia, and Europe within the first 16 years of this century. We trace this back to a rise of the inter-connectivity of these trade blocs to their foreign trade partners.

ГЕОГРАФСКА КОНЦЕНТРАЦИЯ И ГЕОГРАФСКА УСТОЙЧИВОСТ НА ИЗНОСА НА ПЧЕЛЕН МЕД ОТ БЪЛГАРИЯ

The article presents the results of a study on the status and dynamics of Bulgaria’s honey exports. The period from 2007 to 2022 is covered. The geographic concentration and sustainability of exports have been determined through specific indicators. On this methodological basis, summaries of the current foreign trade situation have been made. The obtained values of the studied coefficients in the export of natural honey give reason to claim that, during the studied period, a highly concentrated geographical structure was registered in one with significant sustainability. The small number of main trade partner countries shows the vulnerability and sensitivity of export processes and the rapid transfer of potential changes in the economic situation of foreign trade partners to the country.