Foreign Tourist Arrivals Research Articles

Comparison of Holt Winter's and SARIMA Methods on the data of the Number of Foreign Tourist Visits in Bali Province

The tourism sector is a critical component of a country’s economy, including in Indonesia, where its impact is felt both nationally and regionally, such as in provinces and cities. This research focuses on Bali Province and aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the Holt-Winter’s and Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methods for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals. The analysis centers on two primary entry points: Ngurah-Rai Airport and the seaport. The primary objective is to forecast the number of foreign tourist arrivals from February 2024 to January 2025. The results indicate that the Holt-Winter’s model has a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.2631%, which is lower than the MAPE of 5.8920% for the SARIMA model. Additionally, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the Holt-Winter’s model is 19,149.18, compared to 20,883.20 for the SARIMA model. Consequently, this study concludes that the Holt-Winter’s model provides more accurate predictions and is closer to the actual values than the SARIMA model. Bali, Holt-Winter’s, forecasting, SARIMA, tourism.

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Tourist Visits in Indonesia: GARCH Analysis

In this era of globalization, currency exchange rates are one of the crucial factors affecting a country's economy. The exchange rate of a country's currency plays an important role in economic stability and international trade, especially in the tourism sector. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis to identify patterns of rupiah exchange rate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, and then examine whether these patterns have a significant correlation with the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia. In analyzing the data, researchers conducted several classical assumption tests, namely the normality test and the heteroscedasticity test. The test results show that the data used, namely the rupiah exchange rate data and the number of foreign tourist visits, are not normally distributed and heteroscedastic. In this case, it resulted in researchers not use the Pearson correlation test so they used the Kendall-Tau correlation test and Granger Causality test which resulted in the two variables being correlated. Furthermore, GARCH modeling is carried out which provides forecasting on both data to increase in 2024. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for consideration for stakeholders to determine policies, especially in the financial and tourism sectors.

Analysis of Traveller Growth Trends After the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Accommodation Types in Yogyakarta

The global tourism industry, including the Yogyakarta Special District, is severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemicHowever, as a result of policies that supported and strengthened tourism infrastructure from 2020 to 2022, there has been considerable progress in the number of foreign and domestic tourist visits. This positive trend can continue and make a greater contribution to the development of a region. This study aims to identify the annual trend of growth of this group of travellers, select popular tourist attractions, and predict the trend of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals in Yogyakarta Special District based on the type of hotel in 2023. The basic sample of the research consists of 36 months from 2020 to 2022. The research was conducted quantitatively and focused on time series analysis using a linear trend model. The results of the study show that foreign tourists are far fewer than domestic tourists, but the trend in the percentage growth of foreign tourists from 2020 to 2022 is greater than the growth trend of domestic tourists; The growth of domestic and foreign tourists peaked in July 2020 and March 2022, respectively; Domestic tourists are more interested in nature sights, with Bantul Parangtritis Beach as their favourite location. Meanwhile, foreign tourists are more interested in historical attractions, with Yogyakarta's Taman Sari as their favourite; Forecasting the trend of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals to the Special Region of Yogyakarta for 2023 shows an increasing number with a decreasing growth percentage in the same period.

COMPARISON OF DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN IN FORECASTING FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVALS

Foreign tourist arrivals are one of the factors that make a positive contribution to a country's economy, especially the addition of foreign exchange. This activity is important for the tourism industry and the government to make policies for progress in the tourism sector. This research aims to forecast data on foreign tourist arrivals, especially land routes. This data set, which is a monthly time series covering the period from January 2018 to October 2023, is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The DES technique is a method that quickly adapts to changes in data patterns and can lessen the impacts of random fluctuations, resulting in more stable estimates. Meanwhile, the FTS-MC approach can handle large data variations by utilizing fuzzy sets. Furthermore, combining fuzzy time series with Markov Chains increases forecast accuracy by taking into account state transitions and probability. The research demonstrates that the DES method produces the MAPE value of 0.108530 or 10% which is obtained from the alpha value of 0.9 and beta 0.2. The MAPE 0.108530 means that the ability of the forecasting model is classified as a good category. In the FTS-MC method, the forecast data is close to the actual data. This is indicated by the MAPE value obtained of 0.086850 or 8%, which means that the ability of the forecasting model is very good. Based on the analysis of the two methods, it is concluded that the FTS-MC method is better applied to data on land-based foreign tourist arrivals.

Analyzing the causal relationship between exchange rate and international tourism in Vietnam

The impact of tourism on exchange rates, and vice versa, varies from country to country. This study empirically explores the causal relationship between exchange rates and international tourism in Vietnam. To examine this relationship, data on real exchange rates, foreign tourist arrivals, and real tourism revenue were extracted from the general statistical yearbook from 2000 to 2019. This paper explicitly highlights how exchange rates impact tourism under a government-controlled exchange rate regime. The results indicate a weak unidirectional causal relationship between foreign tourist arrival and real exchange rates. An increase in the real exchange rate increases short-term income but has a negative impact on long-term tourism revenue, while an increase in real tourism revenue reduces the real exchange rate in the short run but is stable in the long run. The research supports the perspective that maintaining a stable exchange rate attracts international tourists in the long term. Based on these findings, the Vietnamese government should adopt a cautious approach to price stabilization policies and encourage export-oriented industries to attract international tourists and promote tourism.

Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods

Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods

Eksplorasi Potensi Wisata Desa Guwang Kecamatan Sukawati Kabupaten Gianyar Bali

Bali experienced a surge in foreign tourist arrivals during 2023, amounting to 5,237,258 people, which shows opportunities for tourism in Bali. Guwang Village as one of the areas in Sukawati District has tourism potential which is rich in culture, nature and local traditions. Guwang Village has potential attractions, one of which is the Barong and Keris Dance Performance. Based on the results of interviews with the management, the level of tourist visits has not shown the increase that the management hoped for and not many people are aware of the performance. This service is carried out through field observations to see real conditions in the field. The team consisting of lecturers with expertise in Tourism, Arts and Culture collaborated with students from the Master's Study Program in Cultural and Religious Tourism in exploring the potential for developing Guwang Village. The results and findings show that the method of introducing attraction products has been widely implemented. However, it is necessary to add content with other hashtags to help increase visits and marketing to introduce the potential of the Barong and Keris Dance. Keywords: tourism, Guwang Village, Barong and Keris Dance

Environmental sustainability and tourism growth: convergence or compensation?

AbstractIn addition to the socio-economic advantages, tourism has been proven to be one of the most important sectors with adverse environmental effects. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between tourism and environmental sustainability by using a panel data from 32 countries in Latin America and the European Union for the period 2000–2019. Several techniques of cointegration and convergence of clusters are used to meet this objective. The empirical results show that on average, tourism growth has a negative impact on the environment in the two groups of countries, which could be attributed to the heterogeneity of the level of regional tourism development. On the other hand, the convergence of tourism growth and environmental sustainability is evident at different adjustment speeds in the different sample panels. It generates empirical evidence on whether the current expansion of the tourism sector in Latin American and European countries entails significant environmental externalities by using the ecological footprint variable as an indicator of environmental sustainability and foreign tourist arrivals as an economic indicator.

Analysis of the Potential of the Silangit International Airport in Increasing Tourist Visiting’s in the Danau Toba Region

This research aims to determine the potential of the Silangit International Airport to increase tourist arrivals in the Kawasan Danau Toba. This research is limited to the elements of international tourism accessibility since the opening of international flights Silangit Airport is expected to increase the number of foreign tourists visiting the Kawasan Danau Toba. This research uses quantitative and qualitative approaches using questionnaires and interview lists. The data collecting technique is purposive sampling by taking research subjects that fulfill the criteria. Data sources are Silangit Airport, immigration staff, transportation, hotels, restaurants, and foreign tourists. Data analysis used in this research was an analysis of frequency descriptions and interpretation of interview results. The results of the research found that there is great potential for Silangit Airport to increase the number of domestic and foreign tourist arrivals to Kawasan Danau Toba. This is indicated by the data processing results, which describe that all respondents stated that there was an increase in the number of foreign tourists arriving at the Silangit airport to visit as tourists and do business visits to the Kawasan Danau Toba.

International tourism and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Kerala

AbstractThis study evaluates the trend and growth pattern of international tourism and analyzes the impact of tourism on the economic growth of Kerala for the past four decades from 1980 to 2019. The time series analysis employed in this study uses the secondary data on Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) of Kerala at constant prices, foreign tourist arrivals (FTA), and foreign exchange earnings (FEE) at constant prices, collected from various sources of the State and Central Government. The methodology of this study uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root, followed by the Johansen Cointegration test, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the Granger Causality test. The results of the analysis reveal the existence of a positive and significant unidirectional long‐run causality running from tourism to the economic growth of Kerala and a bidirectional causal relationship between tourism development and the economic growth in the short run.

Proposed A Design Performance Management System By Using Knowledge-Based Performance Management System Framework At PT. Marjaya Utama Wisata

Indonesia's tourism sector was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 56% drop in its contribution to the country's GDP (Gross et al.). However, the sector has significantly recovered, with foreign tourist arrivals increasing 119.64% in June 2023 compared to the previous year. In response to this phenomenon, service providers, such as Performance Management Systems (PMS), must implement effective strategies to maximise their potential. PT. Marjaya Utama Wisata (Marjaya Trans), a travel agency based in Bandung, experienced significant growth but experienced fluctuations in revenue and experienced losses in some years. Designing a comprehensive performance management system was necessary to deal with these problems. This research proposes a proposed performance management system using the KBPMS framework. The proposed model was developed by combining a literature review and a case study approach from previous studies applied to the same industry. The analysis was conducted using a qualitative approach and multicriteria decision-making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach from the management ranks in the company. This research proposes KBPMS with 19 key performance indicators (KPIs) derived from vision, mission, strategy, business processes, and discussions between researchers and the company. From each aspect of the KBPMS, a priority order is generated from the AHP method to see which indicators have a high priority according to the company's management. It is expected that the application of the designed performance management system model can help the company achieve its goals. The development of this model is still in a stage that needs to be further developed. Evaluation and improvement of PMS implementation will be planned on a long-term basis

DETERMINAN PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA INTERNASIONAL: STUDI WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2013-2020

The tourism sector is one of the sectors that contributes the most to national foreign exchange earnings. However, trade in tourism services is still faced with a number of problems and challenges going forward. This can be seen from the comparison of the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia which shows that Indonesia's tourism market share is still limited and has not been able to compete in the international market. The purpose of this study is to determine and analyze the influence of the Tourism Consumer Price Index (TCPI), GDP per capita of the country of origin of foreign tourists, the Rupiah Exchange Rate against the currency of the country of origin of foreign tourists, and the Visit Visa Free Policy in Indonesia on international tourism demand in Indonesia in the 2013-2013 period. 2020. The variables used are variables that can influence international tourism demand according to previous researchers.The data used in this study is secondary data combining cross sections from 28 countries of tourist visitors and time series from 2013 to 2020. The data collection method was carried out through documentation sourced from the World Development Indicators, Bank Indonesia, and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analytical method used is panel data with the help of Stata 17. The results of this study show that the GDP per capita of the country of origin of foreign tourists has a positive and significant effect on the demand for international tourism in Indonesia in 2013-2020. The rupiah exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the demand for international tourism in Indonesia in 2013-2020, while the TCPI and Visit Visa Free Policy in Indonesia have no significant effect on demand for international tourism in Indonesia in 2013-2020.

MODEL RANCANG BANGUN VIRTUAL TOURISM DI OBJEK WISATA AIR TERJUN GOA GONG, DESA SULANGAI, BANJAR BATULANTANG, KECAMATAN PETANG, KABUPATEN BADUNG

This research discusses enjoying tourist attractions with virtual tourism in Sulangai Village, Bali, especially at Goa Gong waterfall tourist attraction. In the situation of a tourist attraction that is classified as a new category, the Sulangai Village Government chooses virtual tourism as a 4.0 promotional media to increase the number of domestic and foreign tourist arrivals. Tourist visit data from January to July 2022 was used to see changes in the number of tourist arrivals during that period. The research method used in this study is a qualitative method. Data collection was carried out by interview, observation and documentation. The study found out conclusions such as (a). There are tourist attractions, tourist facilities, accessibility, and additional tourist services that are quite adequate, (b). Processing of 360o virtual tour website applications uploaded to a free domain website called wix.com. However, the limitations in this study are (a). There is lack budget for making a 360o virtual tour, (b). Human resources in the IT department of the Sulangai Village Government have not fully mastered the making of 360o virtual tours, and (c). The attractions provided by this object are not enough for 360o video shooting. With this research, it is hoped that virtual tourism can provide a more pleasant and attractive appearance for potential tourists so that it can promote this tourist attraction even further

PERAMALAN JUMLAH KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN ASING BANDARA DI BALI DAN BANTEN MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTER ADITIF DAN MULTIPLIKATIF

Tourism is an important sector in the Indonesian economy. One of the benchmarks for the development of the tourism sector is the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia. Forecasting the number of foreign tourist arrivals is needed so that actors contributing to the tourism sector can optimize their service efforts. It is necessary to forecast the number of foreign tourist arrivals, especially through the arrival gate at I Gusti Ngurah Rai airport (Bali) and Soekarno-Hatta airport (Banten) as one of the main arrival gates most visited by foreign tourists. This study aims to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals through the airport by comparing the accuracy of the Holt-Winter's additive and multiplicative method. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the Durbin Watson statistical test are used and to measure the accuracy of the forecast value against the original data. Overall, the MAPE value and Durbin Watson statistical test result indicate that the additive and multiplicative approaches are good enough to be used. However, judging from the smallest MAPE value, Holt-Winter multiplicative is better used in processing data on the number of foreign tourist arrivals at both I Gusti Ngurah Rai and Soekarno-Hatta airports with MAPE values ??of 7.57% and 6.80% respectively.

Community Empowerment and Planning forCoastal Traders in the Matahari Terbit Beach, Sanur Kaja Traditional Village, Denpasar, Bali

Bali tourism is starting to revive after being devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This can be seen from the increase in foreign tourist arrivals and wisdom and hotel occupancy rates. The Sanur area is one of the attractive tourist destinations. But the COVID-19 storm has changed the behavior of hotel employees. Common things that are altruistic in nature in employees have decreased. Polite and considerate behavior towards colleagues aimed at preventing work-related problems has also decreased. This situation is still ongoing even though employees know that the government has started to relax the mask policy, but WHO has not yet declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. The human resource (HR) managers of hotels in Sanur strive to develop an empowering environment that allows all employees to contribute to their peak performance. HR can be optimized through a behavior, namely organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). This behavior displays employee altruism, courtesy, sportsmanship, awareness, and benevolence. OCB is one of the measures of organizational success because although it is abstract, OCB with the concept of helping and friendliness that tends to go unrecognized actually contributes positively and is able to increase organizational effectiveness.

IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND WAY AHEAD FOR KERALA IN MEDICAL VALUE TOURISM

Medical tourism is a rapidly growing industry with a market size valued at over USD 4.0 billion. The impacts of Covid-19 were felt harshly on the tourism industry, affecting medical tourism. With the economy coming back to normal, the sector is being revived at an even faster pace. India is at a vantage point with diverse culture, demography, and traditional techniques. India has carved out a prominent position in medical tourism with low cost, catering to patients that cannot afford to be in long waiting lines, with state-of-the-art medical care. The quantum of human resources, technological development, and active government intervention, create colossal possibilities to harness this sector. Kerala among other states uses a unique combination of modern and traditional medicine. Foreign-trained medical staff and numerous leisure spots help the state carve out a niche in this highly competitive segment. This paper discusses the boost that medical value tourism could grant Kerala and why this sector could be a significant revenue generator. Based on published data, the study discusses factors that make Kerala a hub for medical tourism, and trends and inflow of medical tourists. Out of the total number of Foreign Tourist Arrivals, the number of tourists arriving for medical purposes was 182,945. Despite a fall of 75 - 80% in Foreign Tourist Arrivals during the first two years (2019-2021) of the pandemic, hospitals in Kerala are making a comeback. For Kerala, the path of recovery is being made possible with changed marketing strategies and innovation to bring in more tourists. The article also discusses the concept and possibilities of Tourism 4.0 specifically, AI-driven telemedicine. The result of the article shows the impressive pace at which the sector is making a comeback and a positive impact on developing economies.

Impact of geopolitical risk on tourism demand: evidence from asymmetric NARDL approach

PurposeMany tourism academics have investigated the linkages between tourism, power and space; few have specifically addressed the profound links between tourism and geopolitics. In view of the restrictive assumptions of the linear framework used in the earlier studies, and hidden asymmetries present in the time series data. Against this backdrop, the study tries to find out how tourists may respond differently to favourable and unfavourable shocks in geopolitical risk (GPR).Design/methodology/approachIn order to capture this asymmetric nature of the problem, the study employs the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to evaluate data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4.FindingsThe results show that both positive and negative shock to GPR does not produce results of equal magnitude. A positive shock to GPR has a more detrimental effect on foreign tourist arrivals (FTA) than a beneficial effect a negative shock produces. Besides this, the present study also looks at the effect of other macro-economic variables on FTA. An ascend in the real effective exchange rate (REER) i.e. appreciation of the domestic currency has an unfavourable impact on foreign visitor arrivals, while an increase in world gross domestic product amplify it. The results of the study are robust to alternative measures of the control variable.Practical implicationsThe study is significant for policymakers in understanding the short and long-run implications of GPR on FTA in India. The present study can assist policymakers, and destination managers to manage the external and internal risks and minimise the consequences of geopolitical threats on the Indian tourism industry. Consequently, destination managers can utilise the study's findings in calibrating their operations and designing crisis marketing strategies within the geopolitical dynamics of the Indian state.Originality/valueThe study tries to find out how tourists may exhibit distinct reactions to positive and negative disturbances in GPR. The study provides first-hand evidence of how GPR impacts tourism demand. The paper also includes the existing body of literature related to GPR factors and their effect on tourist influx, specifically in the framework of the Indian tourism sector.

Effectiveness And Contribution Of The Hotel Tax Revenue In Optimization Of Original Local Government Revenue In Banyuwangi Regency

The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a decrease in domestic and foreign tourist arrivals in Banyuwangi Regency, this is due to one of the government's policies, namely Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB). This has resulted in the tourism sector tax being threatened not optimally, especially the hotel tax. This study aims to determine the level of effectiveness and contribution of Hotel Tax to Regional Original Income (PAD) in Banyuwangi Regency, and to find out what strategies are carried out in optimizing hotel tax revenues to optimize Original Local Government Revenue (PAD). The population of this study is local taxpayers in Banyuwangi Regency, by taking samples from restaurant taxpayers. Data collection techniques are through interviews with the Regional Revenue Agency (BAPENDA) and literature studies of data obtained from BAPENDA and BPS, especially regarding restaurant tax data, PAD, tourists, and strategies in restaurant tax policies. This study resulted in the finding that when the number of victims exposed to Covid-19 was relatively high, it had an impact on the decrease in the number of hotel room occupants, as a result, hotel revenue decreased and affected Hotel Tax Revenue which decreased. The effectiveness of hotel tax revenue is always in the very effective category, because it always meets the set targets. The hotel tax contribution to PAD is always in the very low category because the PAD increase is very significant, not followed by a significant increase in hotel tax. The strategy in optimizing hotel tax revenue is by providing a policy in the form of eliminating fines for late reporting or payments which aims to provide relief to taxpayers so that they are not burdened with their tax obligations so that they continue to carry out their tax obligations.

Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning of The Tourism Industry before, during The Covid-19 Pandemic and After for The Tourism Industry in Indonesia

This research aims to observingtourism businesspre, during and post Covid-19 pandemic. Evaluating and selecting market segment, firstly the highest foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia by nationality is Malaysia, Timor-Leste, Singapore, China and Australia. Secondly, foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia by gender male tourist bigger than female tourist is Malaysia, Timor-Leste, Singapore, India, Japan, America, England and South Korea. In reverse, female tourist bigger than male tourist is China and Australia. Thirdly, foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia by age Generation Y and Generation Z is Malaysia, Timor-Leste, China, India, Japan, America, England, South Korea and Australia. Equal between baby boomers and generation X, Generation Y and Generation Z is Singapore. Fourthly, international tourists spending more than $ 1000 are Singapore, China, India, Japan, America, England, South Korea and Australia. Afterwards, international tourists spending less than $ 1000 are Malaysia and Timor-Leste. Fifthly, international tourists arrivals by main purpose of visit for vacation more than 78 percent is Malaysia, Timor-Leste, China, Singapore, Australia, India, Japan, America, England and South Korea. Positioning strategies as a needs and wants from tourists and communicating and delivering the products. Indonesia needs in making appropriate strategy for more appealing and visible, through segmenting, targeting and positioning.
 Keywords: Segmentation, Targeting, Positioning

Temporal Change of Foreign Tourism in Sri Lanka: A Study on Economic Perspective

Purpose: Many countries rely heavily on tourism as an economic driver. It has a large workforce. Sri Lanka's economic turmoil has been a big impediment to tourist trips. Tourists are keeping away from this picturesque country because of high inflation, frequent power outages, and fuel scarcity. This impacted the tourism industry, job losses etc. This research investigates the relationship between foreign tourist arrivals (FTA) and nation's GDP, and the barriers to tourism growth.
 Methodology: The work is completed through gaining access to quantitative and qualitative data. SLTDA tourist reports from 2018 to 2022, World Data (2020), UNWTO (2017), Central Bank of Sri Lanka provided quantitative data. The information comes from an assessment of literature, articles published in significant newspapers, journals. Cartographic techniques were employed for analysis, and the correlation test was used to assess the relationship between tourist arrivals, foreign receipts, and GNP.
 Findings: There is a positive relationship between FTA and tourism growth. Economic crisis has deteriorated Sri Lanka’s tourism as people are unwilling to visit Sri Lanka owing to uncertainty, inflation, power outages, and fuel scarcity, even the domestic tourist are unwilling to spend money for travelling and leisure purpose.
 Originality: In addition to demand and supply factors, the article indicates that other factors, like inflation and currency value, play a significant role in tourism development. The paper cites several reasons why developing-country governments must preserve stability in order to thrive all sectors of the country's economy, including tourism.