Foreign Policy Issues Research Articles

REGIONAL COOPERATION IN CENTRAL EUROPE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

The paper systematically reviews ten years of academic literature published from 2014 to 2023 and indexed in the Scopus database to establish the current state-of-the-art on how Central European regional groups operate. The review includes 52 publications on six regional cooperation formats: the Central European Defence Cooperation, the Slavkov/Austerlitz Triangle, the Salzburg Forum, the Three Seas Initiative, the Visegrád Group and the Bucharest Nine. The paper finds that regional cooperation research is very concentrated on selected aspects of Visegrád cooperation and follows poor methodological reporting practices. The majority of studies analyse the V4 in relation to migration and foreign policy issues, whereas research on cooperation dynamics in other policy areas and within other active regional groups is marginal. After identifying promising future research directions, the paper calls for greater methodological and topical diversity in Central European regional cooperation research.

Do populists escalate international disputes?

Abstract Among the potentially most consequential effects of populism is its impact on countries' international conflict behaviour. However, empirical evidence about populists' approach to international disputes is inconclusive. We develop a theoretical framework focused on mobilization and personalization, which we argue are particularly relevant characteristics of populist foreign policy-making. We hypothesize that, on a conflict–cooperation continuum, a country's approach to a bilateral dispute will become more conflictive under a populist government if that dispute is strongly used for domestic political mobilization, and if decision-making on that issue is highly personalized. Conversely, foreign policy will not become more conflictive in cases of weak mobilization and personalization. We carry out in-depth qualitative within-case comparisons of non-populist and populist governments' policies in Bolivia (2002–2019), India (2004–2022), and the Philippines (2010–2022), focusing on two selected bilateral disputes per country. Drawing on a broad range of sources, including 71 expert interviews conducted in the three countries, we find that populists in power escalate international disputes if they strongly use foreign policy issues for domestic mobilization and, at the same time, strongly personalize decision-making. This finding nuances existing assessments about the effect of populism on foreign policy change.

Canada: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThere was no federal election in 2023 but change seemed to be in the air, as the official opposition Conservatives, under their new leader, made major gains in the polls and took a significant lead over the Liberals. Controversy over foreign interference in Canadian politics generated controversy, and foreign policy issues had an uncharacteristic impact on Canadian politics. The Liberal government responded with a major Cabinet shuffle, while by‐elections left the party positions in the House of Commons essentially unchanged.

The Relationship Between Topics, Negativity, and User Engagement in Election Campaigns on Facebook

Negativity is a common feature of current online political communication during elections. Previous studies on negativity and its impact on user engagement focused mainly on Western European countries. Considering the political particularities of the Central and Eastern European countries, the present study focused on Czechia, Hungary, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, and Romania, where national election campaigns took place from 2020 to 2022. We aimed to investigate comparatively different topics prevalent in the negative messages and look at users’ engagement with negative communication. We applied manual content analysis of N = 4,095 Facebook posts published four weeks before the elections by political parties elected in the national parliament. Results showed significant differences across countries using negative messages and the associated topics. The posts’ highest rate of negative statements was identified in Czechia (52%), while the lowest was in Lithuania (17%). There are topics consistently associated with negative statements across most countries, such as corruption, economy and finance, foreign policy, labor, and social issues. However, given that those elections took place during the Covid-19 pandemic in Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, and the Republic of Moldova and, in Hungary, after Russia invaded Ukraine, we also identified contextual topics such as health, war, and conflicts with other countries and defense that were mainly associated with negative messages. Furthermore, negative posts generate more reactions and comments than posts containing no negative statements. Addressing foreign policy in negative posts generates significantly more reactions and comments.

Informational lobbying and commercial diplomacy

AbstractWhat determines the content of bilateral diplomacy? I argue that the foreign policy issues prioritized by specific embassies are influenced by their diplomats' sources of information. For evidence, I study the proliferation of American Chambers of Commerce (AmChams)—private interest groups composed of US firms that are operating in specific host states—over the 20th and early 21st centuries. AmChams became key sources of information for US embassies, particularly on issues of relevance to the private sector (such as tax, trade, and investment regulations). Using novel text data from approximately 1500 oral history interviews with former diplomats, and leveraging the institutional structure of diplomatic rotation, I show that diplomats who were exposed to active AmCham branches paid significantly greater attention to commercial issues. These results identify a new avenue through which interest groups can influence foreign policy, help explain the proliferation of probusiness international agreements over the past several decades, and contribute to the growing literature on diplomacy in the international political economy.

Informal groups in EU foreign policy: a social network analysis

ABSTRACT After decades of increasing integration and institutional development in EU foreign policy, the persistence of informal groups calls into question the understanding of European integration as a straight progressive line from informal to formal cooperation. Nonetheless, to date there is no systematic empirical knowledge of informal groups in EEC/EU foreign policy. To address this knowledge gap, the article offers an exploratory study. By means of social network analysis, it maps the frequency and types of informal groups in EEC/EU foreign policy in regard to Kosovo, Libya and Syria in three different phases of EEC/EU foreign policy integration. The article’s findings show that the frequency of informal groups has remained fairly stable across the three phases of EEC/EU integration considered. At the same time, informal groups have generally been relatively small, like-minded, and dominated by individual member states. Overall, these results suggest that by accommodating member states’ interests, especially those of powerful states and of states for which certain foreign policy issues are particularly salient, informal groups have provided the cooperation needed for the coherent functioning of the EEC/EU foreign policy system. While doing so, they have consolidated as socially meaningful patterns among member states’ representatives.

К вопросу об использовании инструментария дипломатии в террористических целях

The modern landscape of counterterrorism is characterized by a shift towards geopolitical confrontation, exemplified by the situations in Libya and Syria. Through the utilization of near-terrorist tactics such as narrative warfare, intimidation, and blackmail, officials, including diplomatic personnel, from certain countries wield international influence in pursuit of their geopolitical objectives, fostering panic, fear, and societal unrest. This phenomenon has become evident since the initiation of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, where actions by terrorist factions received endorsement from Western governments. Currently, diplomatic services and select international bodies overtly rationalize terrorist activities and levy accusations against Russia. Considering the transformation of diplomatic activity, there is a need to study such a destructive international phenomenon as “diplomatic terrorism”, which inherently runs counter to classical diplomacy based on the principle of peaceful resolution of foreign policy issues. The genesis of this phenomenon is intertwined with technological advancements, the globalization of relations, the proliferation of states worldwide, and the degradation of elite cohorts. The phenomenon of diplomatic terrorism represents a paradigm shift in international relations, challenging traditional diplomatic norms and fostering an environment of heightened geopolitical tensions. Addressing this issue necessitates a multifaceted approach that combines diplomatic efforts, counterterrorism measures, and international cooperation to safeguard global stability and security.

Turkey and the EU: waning foreign policy alignment in a changing international context

ABSTRACT The current relationship between the European Union (EU) and Turkey is dragged outside the standard EU accession framework and is increasingly shaped by Turkey’s positions and actions regarding a set of regional and global foreign policy issues. For the EU to carry forward Turkey’s long-stalled accession negotiations, Turkey is expected to show progress on multiple fronts, including a satisfactory level of policy alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This article provides an in-depth analysis of Turkey’s poor alignment with the EU’s CFSP positions since 2014. It looks into regional as well as international issues that occupied the agenda of EU foreign policy and explores the utility-based and normative explanations behind Turkey’s (dis)engagement in policy cooperation.

The External Convergence of the EAEU on Global Issues: Evidence from the UN General Assembly Vote, 2000–2020

This paper examines the voting behavior of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in order to find out their preference similarities on foreign policy issues. Based on a specific dataset of UNGA resolutions from 2000 to 2020 and using two different indices of voting cohesion, the present research addresses two empirically motivated questions: To what extent does the EAEU speak in unison externally in the context of UNGA plenary? And second, what has been the impact of the formation of the EAEU in 2015 on the common foreign policy? The results reveal that the EAEU scores a ‘medium’ level of cohesion as measured in the context of the UNGA, which may indicate that members often speak with one voice, while defections still occur during controversial votes. Moreover, the findings suggest that there is no meaningful difference in cohesion between the pre- and post-EAEU periods. Finally, the study finds that Eurasian states are most cohesive on development resolutions, but least cohesive on security and human rights issues, as reflected in their recorded voting behavior.

Parliamentary Opposition Parties in Georgia’s Foreign Policy under a Hybrid Regime in 2012–2020

Abstract Based on three case studies, this paper examines the influence of parliamentary opposition parties on Georgia’s foreign policy as a country with a hybrid regime. The study covers an eight-year period from the start of the Georgian Dream party’s rule in 2012 to the end of 2020 when pro-Western opposition forces were strong and the government pursued a “normalization” policy with Russia. An analysis of the cases reveals that the parliamentary opposition has leverage in foreign policy to put pressure on the government. Yet the case studies show that the opposition’s influence on foreign policy was manifested mainly by non-parliamentary means, particularly in mobilizing international actors and shaping public opinion on specific foreign policy issues.

Jamaican Values and Foreign Policy

Dependency theory suggests that the foreign policy of small island developing countries will be congruent to the preferences and interest of larger and more powerful countries in its sphere of influence. A large body of contemporary scholarship asserts that values not only play a role in the mass public’s attitudes toward domestic politics, but that they also help people make sense of attitudes toward international affairs national values, they are influenced by factors such as historical traditions, cultural backgrounds, and the realities of the country. Internal tensions are created when a government pursues a foreign policy that is incongruent with the values of the citizens. This study examined the values of 513 Jamaican citizens using the World Value Survey and discussed these findings within the context of values theory and contemporary foreign policy issues. The secular versus religious divide helps to explain the differences in views on LBGTQ, Abortion and Promiscuity and Abstinence between Jamaica and the hegemon. There is far more congruence in values and culture as it relates to Privacy, Science and Technology, Corruption, and Security. It is important that national culture and values of dependent countries be respected by dominant countries instead of assimilating into one worldview.

India in 2023

In 2023, India experienced another year of strong economic growth; it was the fastest- growing economy in the world. However, as before, this growth was accompanied by growing unemployment and inequality between urban and rural regions. Furthermore, the year was marked yet again by significant declines in the quality of democracy as the parliament was increasingly marginalized, a new law effectively handed control of the Election Commission of India to the incumbent government, and laws and government actions curbed civil liberties and human rights. One major positive development was the passage of a law reserving seats for women in the directly elected national and state assemblies. India successfully hosted its first G20 summit but also dealt with major foreign policy issues, including increasing rivalry with China for regional influence, accusations of assassination attempts by its intelligence agencies in friendly countries, and the ongoing Israel–Palestine conflict. Finally, 2023 saw the BJP claim dominant electoral victories in four out of nine states, putting it in government in 16 of the 28 Indian states.

Political transformations in Poland: will a change of government lead to a change of course?

The article examines the consequences of the change of the Polish government, headed by the right-wing Euro-skeptical Law and Justice party, which has led this country since October 2015. The article presents an analysis of the results of the parliamentary elections in Poland, held on October 15, 2023, in which the PiS won a formal victory, which, however failed to form a majority coalition. As a result, the ruling alliance, which received the right to form a government, was made up of the pre-election association of the parties Civic Coalition, which included the Civic Platform parties led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Modern, the Greens and the Polish Initiative, the Third Way association, which included the parties Poland 2050, the Polish People's Party, the Center for Poland, and the Union the European Democrats, as well as the union of the Left, consisting of the parties New Left and Left together. The assessment of the activities of the leading Polish political parties over the previous four years is given, the main provisions of the election platforms of the main parties and coalitions that were elected to parliament following these elections are analyzed. To identify the dynamics of changes in the political situation in Poland, a comparative analysis of the results of the leading political parties of this country in the elections of 2019 and 2023 was carried out, as well as their main characteristics. The key differences in the approaches of the country's leading parties to the IpR and the Civic Platform on domestic and foreign policy issues, including their attitude to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, are analyzed. The process of forming a new Polish government and the influence of the country's President Andrzej Duda on it is considered.

The 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election on social media: Identity, policy, and affective virality.

The 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election is not just a critical geopolitical event, it also engages with themes of alternative candidacy, foreign policy, and affective polarization. At one point, a four-candidate race had emerged in a traditionally bipartisan election, with alternative candidates disrupting the dichotomy of Chinese vs. Taiwanese identity. Leveraging 911,510 posts and 101,600,047 engagements on social media, we analyze user discourse and engagement. First, we find traditional candidates derive more engagement on foreign policy and geopolitical issues, alternative candidates on domestic issues. Additionally, virality is generated by affective reasons, although in-group references generate more engagement than out-group references. Lastly, a puzzle is revealed where alternative candidates draw more homogeneous attention from national identity groups. Results suggest alternative candidacy can be generated by both positive and negative comparisons rooted in national identity.

Foreign Policy as Compensation: Why Brexit Became a Foreign and Security Policy Issue

Abstract Exogenous reform demands can put leaders in a tight spot where change runs up against structural impediments. Yet, where asymmetries in reform costs occur across domains, leaders can seek to re-frame the impetus of change from one domain to another. Such compensatory behavior is commonplace but is not adequately captured by existing research on linkage politics, forum shopping, or diversionary conflict. This article develops the concept of compensatory foreign policy, whereby leaders use foreign policy change to compensate for unviable economic reforms when they have greater capacity and choice in the former domain. Empirically, we use elite interviews to reconstruct the politics of security policy in the post-Brexit United Kingdom, showing how party leaders focused on foreign policy change when beneficial economic arrangements were precluded. Our argument contributes to recent research on linkage politics by demonstrating the conditions under which leaders seek foreign policy reforms to compensate for economic weakness.

From “Decisive Hostility” to “Cordial Agreement”: “The Times” on the Evolution of Britain’s Image in Russian Press at the Beginning of the 20th Century

The article deals with the reflection of the image of Britain in the analytical reviews of “The Times” newspaper on the pages of the Russian periodical press at the beginning of the 20th century.
 The study covers the period from the turn of the 19th–20th centuries until 1907, when the relations between Russia and Britain transitioned from extreme tension and rivalry in different regions of the world to an alliance within the Triple Entente. At this time, the press became truly massive and exerted a stronger influence than ever on the development of international relations. One of the leading English newspapers, “The Times”, took a largely pro-government stance and reflected the official position on foreign policy issues. It regularly reviewed the publications in the Russian press concerning Anglo-Russian relationship or British politics in general.
 As a result of the analysis of “The Times” reviews, it is possible to show the significance of the British political image, the dynamics of public opinion in the Russian Empire regarding a possible confrontation or Anglo-Russian rapprochement. The Russian press formed among readers a certain perception of Britain in the context of the Anglo-Boer War, the events in the Far East, the process of resolving contradictions, and the conclusion of the 1907 agreement, while the English press reflected on this image. The transformation of rhetoric in the press happened as rapidly as the changes in relations between the two powers.

When Foreign Policy Becomes Trade Policy: The EU's Anti‐Coercion Instrument

AbstractThe European Union (EU) has taken a geoeconomic turn since 2017 by creating a series of new unilateral instruments designed to preserve European autonomy and adjust to the progressive unravelling of the liberal international economic order. The most controversial of these instruments is the 2023 Anti‐Coercion Instrument (ACI), designed to deter third countries from targeting the EU and its member states with economic coercion through measures affecting trade or investment. This article analyses why this new policy instrument was created, traces its institutional genesis and explores its implications by asking whether the ACI represents an intentional attempt to transform the foreign policy issue of coercion into a commercial one. Using process tracing based on interviews and primary and secondary materials, we argue that ‘foreign policy becoming trade policy’ through the ACI was an unintended consequence both of external pressures to institutionalise the trade–security nexus and of the EU's uneven internal competence base.

National Role Conceptions of Greek and Turkish Foreign Policies: A Bilateral Assessment

ABSTRACT Greece has faced since 2009 one of the most significant crises in its modern history. Unique in its intensity, at least during times of peace, the financial crisis impacted the country’s economy, politics, and society. Despite the country being under the international spotlight for several years, one cannot help but notice that little has been written on the issue of Greek foreign policy, especially, on whether there is a necessity for adaptation to the limitations imposed by the new realities which have augmented the sense of marginalization and the challenges presented by a continuously complicated international arena amid systemic change. Similarly, Turkey has undergone substantial changes during the past years. Following the July 2016 failed coup attempt and the April 2017 referendum, the country has been in the midst of both administrative change and a change in its foreign policy approach, while its leaders have challenged long-held foreign policy orientations and priorities, in search of a new outlook for the country’s international relations. Our paper aims to explore whether there is a need for Greece and Turkey to adopt a new role in the international system, and therefore, the necessity for the two states to adjust their respective foreign policies accordingly.

Establishing Border Commissariats on the Russian-Chinese Border in the 2<sup>nd</sup> Half of the 19<sup>th</sup> – Early 20<sup>th</sup> Centuries

In the mid-19th century, the Russian government started pushing forward the implementation of a policy to move its population eastward. This was done to strengthen the country’s position in the East and required coordination with China to establish state borders. The legal formalization of the boundaries resulted in the development of new mechanisms of border diplomacy for further interaction between both countries. However, there has been relatively little study of the approaches and tools used in Russian-Chinese diplomacy during this time. This article summarizes the history of establishing border commissariats on the Russian-Chinese border in the 2nd half of the 19th – early 20th century. The study is carried out using the narrative, structural, and functional method, the method of variance, and normative comparison. As a result, it finds out that in the 2nd half of the 19th century, diplomatic functions were shared between the Governor-General, border commissars, and diplomatic officials reporting to the Governor-General. The border commissar was a civil position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was represented by a civilian with the rank of state adviser. The Commissioner’s powers were subordinated to and supervised by the Far East region's Governor-General (military position), who overlooked diplomatic relations. Four border commissariats were set up in the Transbaikal, Amour, South Ussuri and Uryankhay regions. The author concludes that there was no unified system of border commissariats. Although the commissars shared professional duties, they acted independently and dealt with foreign policy issues specific to their region. Overall, the commissars' activities helped maintain socio-political stability in the Eastern border regions of the Russian Empire.

Humor and Foreign Policy Narration: The Persuasive Power and Limitations of Russia’s Foreign Policy Pranks

Abstract This article explores the persuasive power and limitations of humor in narrating foreign policy issues to publics. I focus on audience reception of humor produced by state and state-affiliated actors to advance foreign policy narratives, deflect external criticism, and ridicule opponents. This article examines Russia’s foreign policy pranks, widely assumed to be a tool of influence and persuasion, and their reception by their primary, domestic audience. Using focus groups to discuss pranks on the theme of mutual interference between Russia and the United States, this study relates participants’ reactions to wider foreign policy narratives and questions links between reception and political views. I argue that while humor drives the popularity of the pranks, their power to convince remains ambiguous. Their persuasive power is mostly limited to reinforcing existing views and already popular narratives, while both pro-government and oppositional publics expressed strong suspicions of their fake or propagandistic nature. Even when doubting the pranks’ politics, however, participants were entertained by their humor—suggesting that humorous narration of foreign policy presents means for increased outreach first and persuasion second. Any adverse reactions were mostly directed at the pranksters rather than government officials—highlighting how humor can be a politically expedient way of narrating contentious foreign policy issues to publics through proxies.