China and the New Geometry of East Asia Brad Glosserman (bio) The trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and China may be the most important strategic triangle in the world; it is certainly the most dynamic and most confusing. The United States is the world's sole remaining superpower and possessor of national power unmatched by any other nation, now or at any other time. Japan, Asia's leading nation and America's sometime surrogate within the region, has entered a crisis of confidence after a decade of economic stagnation that shows no sign of ending. China appears to be waking from its century-and-a-half long slumber and is reclaiming its rightful place on the regional and international stage. These changes challenge the accepted international order in the Asia-Pacific. While there are uncertainties aplenty, a continuation of existing trends would transform the region's geopolitical landscape. The thoughts that follow assume that current trajectories generally continue.1 For American strategists, this new international environment requires a substantial change in perspective. The instruments of United States foreign policy in Asia can and should continue. A continued United States forward presence in the region that rests upon America's bilateral alliances will continue to play an essential role in guaranteeing peace and stability throughout the Asia-Pacific. The survival of those alliances will depend upon an equally important transformation in United States' thinking about relations with its treaty partners. First, Washington will have to start treating them more like partners and less like subordinates. Burdens, [End Page 103] responsibilities, and, yes, credit will have to be more evenly shared. This means those partners will have to act responsibly as well. Second, the alliances themselves will have to be transformed. In the 21st century, alliances will have to be based upon shared values and interests, rather than shared threat perceptions. Quite simply, alliances will have to be for something rather than merely counters to some external threat. Finally, the alliances will have to reach out to other nations, both friends and potential adversaries, to build a framework for strategic dialogue and the creation of ad hoc coalitions when situations warrant. This paper begins with an examination of American interests and strategic concerns in the Asia-Pacific region. It then assesses Japan's prospects and concludes that they are not good. This poses particular problems for Washington since a pillar of its presence in Asia is its alliance with Tokyo. The paper then turns to China, and American approaches to dealing with Beijing. While hardliners and the media appear eager for a fight, the United States is in fact hedging: hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. Next, the paper looks at two arenas of geopolitical competition between Japan and China, Northeast and Southeast Asia. In both cases, Beijing's diplomacy is more dynamic and Japan appears to be reacting to Chinese initiatives. The paper concludes with an examination of the trilateral relationship shared by the United States, China, and Japan. The three countries have to escape the zero-sum thinking that has dominated strategic calculations since World War II. United States Interests in Asia The United States is a Pacific power. Hawaii gives the United States a physical presence in the region, but ever-growing parts of the United States look west to Asia when they contemplate the future. An expanding number of Americans — 10.9 million people, or about 4% of the population — cast their eyes in the same direction when they think about their past.2 As Secretary of State Colin Powell pledged in a recent speech, "America's commitment to Asia's security and stability is [End Page 104] an enduring one.… We are a Pacific power. We will not yield our strategic position in Asia."3 The United States has many reasons to remain engaged. The first is economic. As Powell explained, "Under the protection of America's security umbrella, two-way trade between the United States and East Asia and Pacific has risen to $700 billion annually, larger than our trade with Europe. Between 1990 and 2000, exports of American products to Asia grew by over 80% and imports to the United...
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