Foreign Policy Choices Research Articles

Uneven Accountability? Public Attitudes on Indian Foreign Policy since the 1960s

India is the world's largest democracy and is growing steadily more important in the international system, yet we know very little about how India's 800 million-person democratic public thinks about, and influences, foreign policy choices. This paper explores public opinion about India's foreign policy by leveraging both historical survey data from the 1960s and 1970s, and modern, scientific surveys from the 2000s onward. Historical and modern data show three notable trends in Indian public opinion on foreign policy. First, the dynamics of public opinion vary across foreign policy issues. Attitudes toward Pakistan and China, for example, are remarkably consistent over time and across society while attitudes on India's nuclear program are more variable. Second, historical data reveals systematic sub-national variation in attitudes. Even leaving aside foreign policy issues that have particular high salience in one region (like the 1971 war impacting West Bengal), foreign policy attitudes seem to vary between the South and North, East and West. Finally, we find significant variation by income and education in the rate of Don't Know responses: Poorer and less educated respondents are systematically more likely to demur when asked about foreign policy and world affairs. The implications of these findings provide a direction for future research - the portions of the Indian public able to consistently offer opinions on foreign policy may be too small and irrelevant to affect policy-making, or may act as a powerful, relatively elite constituency with disproportionate influence on media, state, and the thinktank/academic community. We also outline future data collection directions.

Japan’s Central Asia Policy Revisited: National Identity, Interests, and Foreign Policy Discourses

AbstractThis article focuses on the nature of Japan’s foreign policy formulation and legitimization through a study of its interaction with Central Asian countries. The article examines foreign policy discourse that constructs Japan’s “self” vis-à-vis Central Asian “other.” It reveals the textual mechanism through which reality, objects, and subjects are constructed, and it interprets the official statements contained in several foreign policy initiatives, in particular, the “Eurasian (Silk Road) Diplomacy,” the “Central Asia plus Japan,” and the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity,” as an attempt to understand the intersubjective knowledge and analytical lens through which Japanese foreign policy makers conceive and interpret the constructed “reality,” produce foreign policy choices, and choose among identified alternatives.

Interests, ideas, and the study of state behaviour in neoclassical realism

AbstractIdeational variables have frequently been employed in positivist-minded and materialist analyses of state behaviour. Almost inevitably, because of these commitments, such studies run into theoretical challenges relating to the use of ideas. In this article, I suggest that integrating ideational factors in positivist and materialist approaches to state behaviour requires: (1) distinguishing conceptually between interests and ideation as well as between individual beliefs and social ideas; and (2) addressing challenges of operationalisation and measurability. To that end, I employ neoclassical realism as a case study. I argue that a re-conceptualisation of ideas asexternalisedindividual beliefs employed in political deliberation allows neoclassical realists to focus on how ideas and ideational competition intervene in the transmission belt from materially given interests to foreign policy choice. At the same time, it more clearly operationalises ideas as identifiable in language and communication. I suggest this reconceptualisation, while consistent with realist paradigmatic assumptions, need not be limited to neoclassical realism. Instead, transposed to different paradigms, it would similarly allow positivist-minded constructivists and institutionalists to avoid a conceptually and methodologically awkward equation of different ideational factors.

Diyanet’s Evolution From Turkish Nationalism to Panislamism

The Diyanet, which believes it has been undertaking an important domestic and international mission, has been promoted to a unique position with respect to shaping public perception in Turkey and abroad. Besides, main problem for the Diyanet, in this respect, is that since it has synchronized its discourse with that of the AKP government, who is included and who is left outside this Islamic unity is determined according to AKP’s foreign policy choices.

Astrategic Europe

AbstractThis article argues that the existing literature on EU foreign, security and defence strategy has paid insufficient attention to two basic prior questions: what is strategy? And what constitutes good strategy? Judged against a baseline definition of good strategy, the EU lacks an agreed assessment of its external environment, struggles to prioritize competing foreign policy objectives, avoids difficult foreign policy choices, and often lacks the ways and means necessary to achieve its goals, yet is reluctant to modify its objectives. These problems reflect the EU's character as a polity: differences amongst member states and the primarily intergovernmental nature of EU foreign, security and defence decision‐making fundamentally constrain the Union's ability to develop and implement external strategy. The EU is better understood as an astrategic actor: an actor without a strategy in the proper meaning of the word and one that will continue to find it difficult to develop such a strategy.

China-U.S. Institutional Balancing in the Asia-Pacific and Its Implications to China’s Foreign Policy Choices

China-U.S. Institutional Balancing in the Asia-Pacific and Its Implications to China’s Foreign Policy Choices

Status competition and rising powers in global governance: an introduction

ABSTRACTThis introductory article delves into the assessment of status policies and status seeking strategies of rising powers and most particularly their status competition among themselves in multiple platforms of global governance. Different from the competition engaged by a rising power against an established power, status competition among the rising peers creates different consequences in terms of both their intergroup relations and their relations towards the higher-status traditional powers. Status competition may also be used as a strategy by rising powers having equal or similar level of status in international organizations to find new fields of cooperation and to develop new diplomatic networks. Internal dynamics of rising powers and their leaders’ foreign policy choices also shape the way and the degree to which they engage in status competition in status clubs. Status competition among rising powers may also contribute to the reinforcing of their status recognition.

Challenges to Pakistan’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era: 1991-2001

Pakistans geo-strategic position determined her foreign policy choices and directions during the global cold war conflict. The dawn of the new global system brought new phase of challenges and constraints for Pakistan. This new unipolar power structure obliged Pakistan to think in terms of reorientation of her foreign policy because it had lost her importance and opportunities after the Afghan war. Pakistan has faced the challenge of increasing isolation mainly because of these factors in the decade of 90s. Firstly, security secondly, her nuclear program and sanctions, thirdly, political uncertainty and inconsistency in determining foreign policy goals, fourthly, regional constraints like Afghan Taliban factor, fifthly, Nuclear tests and finally, her support of Kashmir freedom struggle.

Europe, Russia, or both? Popular perspectives on overlapping regionalism in the Southern Caucasus

ABSTRACTPolitical elites often construct dichotomous images of foreign policy choices. This paper is interested in how overlapping regional integration projects such as the European Union or the Russia-initiated Eurasian Economic Union are regarded by the larger public. Based on survey data, the paper analyses foreign policy orientations in Georgia, a country that has been considered as one of the most strongly pro-Western nations in the post-soviet world. The paper finds that despite having idealistic pro-European foreign policy elites, a substantial part of the Georgian population does in fact pragmatically supports closer ties with Russia and with the European Union at the same time. Several explanatory factors for the different foreign policy choices are proposed, of which identity- and interest-based ones prove to be most important.

Two Visions of Greatness: Roleplay and Realpolitik in UK Strategic Posture

AbstractHow do states’ desires to perform an international-societal role interact with the imperative to safeguard their security in an anarchic international system? Using the case of the contemporary United Kingdom, this article explores the tensions between roleplay and realpolitik—gaining social recognition as a particular kind of state while doing what it takes to survive—through one key role conception, “Great Power.” Recent scholarship has dubbed Britain a “residual Great Power”: lacking the wherewithal to impose regional order through preponderance, it is still cast into the role of militarized international order-upholder by the allies whose support is necessary for such role-sustainment, America and France. Yet this role-based approach sets a different threshold on capability than the requirement to undertake survival-essential military missions, independent of potentially unreliable allies’ charity—realists’ understanding of “great power.” Theoretically, therefore, the article demonstrates that roleplay and realpolitik remain separate incentive structures underlying states’ foreign policy choices. Empirically, meanwhile, the article shows—through opportunity-cost force-posture analysis—that contemporary Britain is torn between the logics. Striving for independent self-protection capabilities, above-and-beyond the “residual power” criterion, London nonetheless makes a residual power's implicit assumptions about alliance support in the deployment of those capabilities.

Understanding Saudi Arabia's Influence on Pakistan: The Case of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism

AbstractThe launch of the Saudi‐led so‐called Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) in 2015 tested the strong strategic alliance between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. In light of concerns about the positioning of the coalition of 41 states against Iranian interests in the Middle East, Pakistan's initial response to the Saudi demand to join the war in Yemen was a polite refusal by means of a unanimous decision of the parliament. However, under tremendous pressure from Riyadh and other Gulf States, Islamabad later capitulated and backtracked from its initial decision. This paper analyses the unique nature of the relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia through a dissection of the various dimensions of the Kingdom's cultural and political influence on Pakistan. It also illuminates Saudi hegemonic strategies and the manner in which Islamabad adjusts and is influenced as well as coerced to revise its foreign policy choices. This paper argues that Saudi's diplomatic strategies, political pressure and pledges of generous financial assistance ensured Pakistan's participation in IMAFT.

Dış Politika Yapımında Mezhepsel Aktörler: 2006 Lübnan Savaşı’na Yeniden Bakış

This paper analyses the role of sub-state sectarian actors in foreign policy making in weakly established states by re-visiting the July War of 2006 in Lebanon. It mainly asks how sub-state sectarian actors behave as foreign policy actors in countries where society is divided along sectarian identities and how sectarian identities matter in terms of the definition of the self and the other and the ally and the enemy in weak states. By doing so, the paper analyses the emergence and the consolidation of foreign policy orientations, preferences and behaviour of the Maronite, Sunni, Shi’a and Druze communities in Lebanon, with a specific emphasis on the role of Hezbollah during the war. Building its main findings on various fieldworks in Lebanon, interviewing leaders of major sects; this study concludes that in the absence of a cohesive foreign policy stance in a weak state, the role of sectarian identity in defining self and other becomes central for understanding the foreign policy choices of sectarian actors.

Changing Dynamics of Nepalese Foreign Policy: Patterns and Trends

After the unification of many tiny states into a single and unified state, the foundation of Nepalese foreign policy was coined by brave, visionary and nationalist king Prithivi Narayan Shah. On the basis of geo-reality, his foreign policy based on non-alignment and neutrality is still relevant. But the subsequent rulers could not maintain their foreign policy images. The trend of changing foreign policy tilt with every change in regime in general and leader in particular created difficulty in foreign policy making. The geo-strategic location of the country on the one hand and continuous political instability in the country on the other always created threat for its survival. The geographical proximity of two Asian powers and their security concern further added more threat upon our independence. All these conditions have played influencing role in the determination of foreign policy choices. Since, Nepal is in advantageous position to benefit from India and China, after a long transition, the newly elected government has almost single choice to act as a balance of local, regional and global interest. So the main objective of this article is to analyze the patterns and trends of Nepalese foreign policy choices. Secondary sources of data are used to achieve the objectives.Journal of Political Science, Volume XVIII, 2018, page: 25-45

Towards ‘Global Britain’ ? Theresa May and the UK’s Role in the World after Brexit

This paper seeks to examine Theresa May’s government foreign and defence policy choices in the light of decisions made by previous governments, especially the Conservative-led coalition, and assesses the impact of the June 2016 Brexit referendum. By adopting a role theory perspective on these events, the paper identifies the various institutional actors and the constraints on their action. It shows that the ‘Global Britain’ narrative is meant to meet the British public’s great power expectations. However, this narrative is far from supported by evidence and post-Brexit foreign and defence policy confirms and intensifies Britain’s already-growing isolation on the international stage.

Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

ABSTRACTSince segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.

Canada's twenty-first century discovery of China: Canadian media coverage of China and Japan

ABSTRACTChinese government officials and some Canadian foreign policy experts have challenged the content and tone of Canadian media's coverage of China. Canadian media coverage is thought to negatively bias public opinion and thereby constrain foreign policy choices available to policymakers. Scholars of Canada–Japan relations worry that decreasing media attention could have longer term effects on bilateral ties. Through an analysis of over 30,000 articles appearing in three major Canadian news publications over a 15-year time span (2000–2015), we identify how news about these countries is framed to the Canadian public and how these frames change over time. Our central finding is that the Canadian media experienced a “twenty-first century discovery of China” in 2004–2005. The volume of coverage of Chinese economic news spiked, while coverage of political rights declined, portraying China as a leader in the global economy and therefore a viable economic partner. Yet we find that media coverage is only loosely tied to public opinion. Counterintuitively, Canadian attitudes toward China have become more negative with increased positive news coverage, while declining coverage of Japan is correlated with increasingly positive views of the country.

THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS IN TURKISH DEMOCRACY HISTORY

This paper is an attempt to analyze the impact of the external relations of Turkey upon its process of democratization. By considering main developments in Turkey’s democratic transition, the aim is to trace the influences of Turkish foreign policy choices on strengthening democracy in Turkey. In this context, this study argues that westernization had been a modernization project of Turkey with the strategic and economic concerns until the end of the Cold War. In the post-Cold War period, the political Europeanization project of Turkey has made significant contributions to the process of democratization since the Helsinki Summit of 1999. However, with the problematic relationship of Turkey-EU after the golden years (1999-2005) of rapprochement, Turkey went to a redefinition process of its orientation in modernization, democratization and foreign policy under the Justice and Development Party rule in the last decade.

Are Western-Educated Leaders Less Prone to Initiate Militarized Disputes?

Recent theories on the causes of war focus on how institutional and structural factors shape leaders’ decisions in foreign policy. However, citizens, policy-makers, and a growing number scholars argue that leaders’ background experiences may matter for both domestic and foreign policy choices. This article contributes to an emerging body of scholarship on leaders in international relations by showing how personal attributes influence the initiation of militarized disputes. Based on thesoft power theoryof international experiences and theimpressionable-years hypothesisof socialization, I theorize that leaders with the experience of attending a university in a Western democratic country should be less likely than non-Western-educated leaders to initiate militarized interstate disputes. I test this proposition by employing a new dataset, building on Archigos and LEAD, that includes background attributes of more than 900 leaders from 147 non-Western countries between 1947 and 2001. The results strongly support the hypothesis, even when accounting for leader selection, time-variant country and leader-level controls, other leaders’ background characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. This finding lends credence to the soft power thesis of academic institutions on international sojourners, and highlights the value of considering leaders’ experiences in analyses about international relations.

Italy's view on Turkey Joining the Atlantic Treaty (1949-1952)

This study aims to examine the difficult way in which Turkey and Greece negotiated their membership applications in the North-Atlantic Treaty and it analyzes the consequences of this foreign policy choice which placed these countries in one of the Cold War teams. Heavy emphasis was put on the reasons why the Italian administration considered and supported these states’ demands for security. Essentially, this study tried to redraw the diplomatic effort, using documents from the collections of the Italian diplomacy (I Documenti Diplomatici Italiani), mostly from the recently published 11th/XI series, which discuses Italy’s political and diplomatic view within NATO. It is also worth mentioning that this study also followed the attitudes and reactions of the government in Athens regarding the issue of the first expansion of the Atlantic Alliance, although the author placed emphasis on the more fleshed out policy of the Turkish Government, another reason being its influence in the Middle East and among the Arab states.

Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes

ABSTRACTLeaders consider the broader international landscape when making foreign policy choices. This landscape could encompass a single external actor, the local region, or even the whole international system. Quantitative analyses of international outcomes, however, frequently do not account for this broader context. This study suggests a corrective, illustrating the value of incorporating extra-dyadic variables into analyses with dyadic and monadic outcomes. The challenge is to parsimoniously capture theoretically salient elements of the multilateral environment. We contend that a measure that links distributions of power within any k-set of relevant states to uncertainty over conflict outcomes is a promising option for two reasons. First, the measure builds from and accords with canonical theories of international politics. Second, it offers scholars a simple and flexible means to define and account for the set of states that constitute the relevant multilateral landscape. Illustrative applications linking power distributions and outcome uncertainty to alliance formation and pursuit of nuclear weapons demonstrate that extra-dyadic factors consistently influence foreign policy outcomes. This study thus shows that situating such outcomes within their broader context is both feasible and substantively important. Moreover, it contributes to recent efforts to address shortcomings of monadic and dyadic studies.