Foreign Policy Change Research Articles

Grasping Foreign and Security Policy Change: Patterns and Conditions of Change Among Liberal Democracies

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been perceived as a fundamental shift at the international level, triggering reorientation in foreign and security policy, in particular among liberal democracies. At the same time, beyond such external shocks, states may incrementally adapt their positioning towards international affairs. To shed light on these dynamics, this article aims to quantitatively explore longer-term patterns of foreign and security policy in liberal democracies. In doing so, we make two contributions to the literature: First, we propose a quantitative operationalization of foreign and security policy change, combining military and non-military aspects, to explore the patterns of continuity and change over time (1988–2021), considering 20 liberal democracies. Second, we leverage insights from public policy analysis, in particular the punctuated equilibrium theory, to make sense of the identified patterns. Accordingly, we find support for the proposition that foreign and security policies typically change incrementally and that major change is rare. Moreover, while incremental shifts can be explained by domestic politics and institutional settings, major changes disrupt this pattern. In conclusion, the article discusses the plausibility of the quantitative analysis given the current policy shifts among democracies following Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Zeitenwende: German Foreign Policy Change in the Wake of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Russia’s war against Ukraine has severely damaged the European security architecture. This article examines the consequences of this rupture for German foreign and security policy. Just a few months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany saw the transition to an unprecedented three-party coalition government of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals. In a special address to the Bundestag three days after the invasion, Chancellor Olaf Scholz described Russia’s war initiation as a historical Zeitenwende (“watershed”) that called into question long-held beliefs about European security. In the wake of this, Scholz proclaimed far-reaching changes, including the announcement that military expenditure would be drastically increased, additional military capabilities would be procured, and new deployments would be committed to NATO’s eastern flank. This article argues that the Zeitenwende amounts to an international orientation change in German foreign and security policy. Apart from identifying areas of significant change, the article also documents political contestation over the Zeitenwende’s nature and extent as well as gaps between proclaimed changes and actual implementation.

CURRENT TRENDS OF ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY OF UKRAINE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The role of economic diplomacy in establishing and developing relations between countries has been substantiated, explained by the priority of economic interests. The aim of the article is to analyze the current trends of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the Middle East. The historical prerequisites for the formation of Ukraine's economic diplomacy and the main vectors of its foreign economic policy have been revealed. The dynamics of the regional structure of goods export from Ukraine have been analyzed, confirming that the countries of the CIS were in the focus of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the initial stages of independence. Changes in Ukraine's foreign economic policy after 2014 have been established, and the importance of cooperation with Middle Eastern countries has been argued. Emphasis is placed on cooperation with Turkey, the main trade partner for Ukraine among the Middle Eastern countries. An assessment of the dynamics of the foreign trade activity of both countries has been conducted, and the main vectors of cooperation, which include economic and investment spheres, cultural and educational cooperation, have been substantiated. The peculiarities of Ukraine's cooperation with Turkey since the beginning of the war have been highlighted. Using the SWOT analysis methodology, the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in Ukraine's cooperation with the Middle East countries have been identified. The main consequences of expanding Ukraine's partnership with Middle Eastern countries, which will contribute to the diversification of trade between countries, the development of joint infrastructure projects, etc., have been singled out. Strategic directions for expanding Ukraine's presence in the Middle East countries have been proposed. Among the channels of disseminating information about Ukraine, attention is focused on the work of Ukraine's diplomatic missions abroad. It is proposed to revise the format of presenting information about Ukraine in the Middle East countries, involving representatives of foreign media. The effectiveness of using social media platforms and business channels for Ukraine's strategic penetration into the markets of this region has been confirmed. Other channels for forming Ukraine's image diplomacy in the Middle East have been identified. Prospective vectors of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the region have been outlined.

The changing foreign policy dynamics of GCC States: a study through the lens of positive interdependence

Foreign policy behaviour of the GCC members is changing. The countries are embracing discussion and diplomacy rather than focusing on contention and opposition. They are looking beyond traditional partners and are diversifying their support base within the region as well as outside while expressing interest in being part of multilateral institutions. GCC countries have recognised that securing economic interests is of paramount interest and political leverages and geo-political maneuverings are secondary in the changing world and to that end are engaging with the Asian, African and Latin American economies. Further the countries have understood the significance of non-traditional issues of energy, food, water and environment security along with waste management. The paper is an attempt to study this shift through the lens of positive interdependence. Embracing positive interdependence, the states focus on mutual dependence with an intention to achieve growth and prosperity and propagating one’s national interests without intending to sabotage the interests of the other party.

Россия в стратегических документах Германии: “смена эпох”

The article explores Germany’s changing foreign policy orientations in the context of the Ukrainian crisis since February 2022. The Russian Special military operation in Ukraine served as a trigger for Olaf Scholz’s government to publish new strategic documents designed to consolidate the changes in the German approach to Russia. These mainly include: National Security Strategy, Guidelines for Feminist Foreign Policy, Strategy on China, and Defense Policy Guidelines. They see Russia as the biggest threat to German and European security. This thesis is meant to justify the abandonment of pacifist traditions. It is noted that the concept of the “Russian threat” is becoming universal and significantly complicates the prospects of future normalization of Russian-German relations. According to the federal government, the response to the “Russian threat”, in addition to supporting Ukraine, should be a set of non-military measures in the field of economy, technology, information space, and inter-societal relations. The complexity of practical implementation of the measures towards Russia stated in the documents is emphasized. It is noted that by now, there is a shift in Germany’s security priorities, with Russia moving to the seventh place in the list of threats. These changes are accompanied by growing dissatisfaction of the German population with Berlin’s domestic and foreign policy. Despite possible changes within Germany in reference to future elections, it is concluded that the probability of adjusting the confrontational approach remains low due to the need to revise the guiding documents. The study points to a major and long-term shift in Germany’s policy towards Russia, which affects security and stability in Europe.

Структурно-параметрический анализ и меры по развитию внешней торговли Российской Федерации в условиях санкционного давления

The subject of the study is the evolution of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation in the context of changing foreign policy factors. The purpose is to analyze the key parameters of Russia’s foreign trade at the present stage and develop measures to accelerate development with updated trading partners. The article is based on structural parametric analysis and modeling of economic processes and systems. The methods of logical, graphoanalytic, statistical, correlation and comparative analysis are used. A statistical and correlation analysis of the foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation has been carried out. The main reasons for the slowdown and acceleration of the development of foreign trade have been identified. The main export and import goods on which the economic security of the state depends are identified. The measures for the development of the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the context of increasing the country’s export potential are proposed. New key trading partners of the Russian Federation have been identified, as well as measures to accelerate the development of trade with such states. Conclusions. In order to accelerate the development of foreign trade in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to improve the domestic market. The proposed measures will improve the economic situation within the state, which will increase the potential of foreign trade activities.

Perubahan Kebijakan Luar Negeri Amerika Serikat dalam Mengatasi Imigran Ilegal di Perbatasan Dengan Meksiko

The United States, particularly illegal immigrants from the Mexico border, is the primary destination country for these immigrants. In addressing the threat posed by illegal immigrants, the US implements foreign policy measures. Research aims to explain the factors contributing to these changes and examine the extent of changes in the US foreign policy concerning illegal immigration. The factors and levels of changes are analyzed using the foreign policy change theory developed by Jakob Gustavsson. The factors of change consist of international and domestic factors, encompassing political and economic elements. The levels of change categorized as adjustment changes, program changes, problem/goal changes, and international orientation changes. The research methodology employed is qualitative, utilizing a descriptive analytical approach and relying on secondary data. The international factors within the political realm include increasing criminal activities, while the economic aspect pertains to issues regarding low wages for workers. Domestic factors within the political sphere involve changes in foreign policy resulting from the fulfillment of campaign promises influenced by political parties, and the economic aspect relates to the declining income of the American population, affecting the average income of U.S. citizens. The observed levels of change predominantly fall under program changes and international orientation changes.

Penerimaan Pengungsi Afghanistan oleh Korea Selatan pada Tahun 2021 Melalui Operation Miracle

South Korea is one of the countries that ratified the 1951 Refugee Convention in 1992 and implemented it into domestic regulations in 2013. Even though it has been ratified and implemented, the rate of acceptance of refugees in South Korea is very low. In 2020 the refugee acceptance rate is less than two percent of the number of incoming asylum applications. South Korea appears to have implemented a policy that is closed to refugees as seen from one of the policies for returning refugees directly which is not in line with the provisions of the 1951 Refugee Convention. But in 2021, the government adopt a more hospitable policy towards refugees originating from Afghanistan. This study aims to explain the factors that influence the acceptance of Afghan refugees by South Korea in 2021. This research is analyzed using the concept of foreign policy change by Spyros Blavoukos and Dimitris Bourantonis. This study used a qualitative research methodology and a descriptive-analytical type of research. Based on the concept used, the first factor affecting the acceptance of Afghan refugees by South Korea in 2021 is the domestic structural parameter influenced by the power of progressive parties in the legislature and executive and the existence of a network of advocacy groups. Second, international structural parameters influenced by the United States' encouragement of South Korea, and the role of the UNHCR in encouraging the acceptance of Afghan refugees.

The Iranian Impact on Iraqi-Jordanian Relations after 2003

Objectives: The study aims to examine the possibilities and challenges associated with repairing ties between Jordan and Iraq. Additionally, it explores how Iraq's foreign policy priorities towards other nations are influenced, in part, by Iran. 
 Methods: The historical evolution of relations between Iraq and Jordan is tracked using the historical technique described in the first section of the article. The second section employs an analytical and descriptive technique to investigate the impact of the Iranian variable on the Iraq-Jordan relationship. 
 Results: Iranian influence on Iraqi political decision-making has significantly shaped Iraq's political, economic, and security orientations concerning other Arab nations. Iran assesses Iraq's international relations through the zero-sum game theory, viewing alliances between Iraq and its Arab neighbours or nations close to the United States as detrimental to its interests. 
 Conclusion: Since 2003, Iran has actively interfered in Iraq, directly impacting its foreign policy. The constraints on Iraqi political decision-makers limit their ability to advance Iraq's national interests. Consequently, the post-2003 relationship between Iraq and Jordan serves as a model illustrating the impact of the Iranian component in Iraq, leading to minimal changes in Iraq's foreign policy concerning the Arab regional environment.

Continuity and Change in Italian Foreign Policy under Fascism: A Reexamination of the Corfu Crisis of 1923

Though not resulting in the outbreak of open war, the Corfu Crisis of 1923 saw Benito Mussolini’s first violent foreign policy venture which exposed the League of Nations’ inability to deter would be aggressor states and presaged future acts of aggression including a similar challenge over Ethiopia just twelve years later. Based on archival research and other primary sources and addressing the issue of continuity and change in Italian foreign policy, this article argues that Mussolini’s bid to seize Corfu in 1923 was not an impulsive act but a crude premeditated attempt to carry out a long-term goal that had deep roots in Italy’s prefascist past. 1

A Political Economy of Historical Change and Continuity in Turkish Foreign Policy

This study aims to analyse historical continuity and change in Turkish foreign policy (TFP) within the framework of Critical Theory as elucidated by Robert Cox. It suggests asking how TFP has been affected by the historical changes in relations of production and world orders. Within this framework, it aims to explain the changes in TFP within the relation between the production, the world order and the form of state. It analyses TFP in three historical periods such as the Interwar Years, Cold War and post-Cold War. It exposes that Turkish state (re)formation and foreign policy making has succumbed to the global capitalist relations of production and corresponding world orders. These two have been the major framework(s) of change and continuity in Türkiye’s 100 years-old foreign policy. Its main argument is that the continuity and change in TFP has shown an interplay of relations between production and world order. It concludes that TFP has been in line with the global relations of production so there has been a clear and substantial continuity; and that the arguable changes have been the repercussions of global relations of production and world orders.

Russia and the Netherlands in the First Half of the 18th Century:
 the Main Stages of the Development of Bilateral Relations

The study of Russian-Dutch relations in the first half of the 18th century is of interest in terms of studying the process of Russia's entry into the all-European system. This article examines in the context of all-European relations the main features and peculiarities of the development of Russian-Dutch mutual relations during four main stages: the period of the Northern War; 1725–1730; the 30s associated with the War of the Polish succession; the 40s of the 18th century - the period of the War
 of the Austrian succession. It turns out that during the Northern War, Russian-Dutch relations changed depending on the international conjuncture and the specifics of the trade policy pursued by Russia. In the first years after the death of Peter I, in 1725–1730, Russian-Dutch diplomatic relations changed due to general changes in Russia's domestic and foreign policy. The revival of 1725–1726 was replaced by the recession of 1727–1730. In the 30s of the 18th century, political, diplomatic and trade relations between Russia and the Netherlands continued to develop, and this happening more often in the context of all-European relations. The latter trend intensified as Russia entered the European system, which found its expression at the next stage of the development of Russian-Dutch relations – during the War of the Austrian Succession. Summing up, we can highlight the following important trend: traditionally focused on trade relations, Russian-Dutch relations are increasingly becoming dependent on the peculiarities of the international situation in Europe, on the balance of power on the international arena.

Autoritarinių lyderių užsienio politikos pokyčiai: Uzbekistano užsienio politikos po Šaltojo karo pabaigos analizė

The growing study of foreign policy change offers various explanations of change and continuity in foreign policy. By focusing on the actors of foreign policy decision-making, past scholarship has mainly concentrated on the role of institutional and noninstitutional factors in foreign policy change. However, decentralized decision-making is more relevant to democratic regimes than authoritarian regimes. Despite the abundance of case studies on foreign policy making in nondemocracies, advancements in the conceptual understanding of foreign policy change in authoritarian regimes are still needed. Addressing Uzbekistan’s foreign policy, this article proposes an advanced framework to explain why and how foreign policy change takes place under authoritarian leaders. A leader’s perception of the external environment is argued to be a decisive factor inducing authoritarian leaders to (re)consider their regime survival strategy. Concern with regime survival, in turn, shapes foreign policy goals which are manifested in distinctive foreign policy behavior of a leader. Ultimately, the behavior of a leader translates into certain foreign policy outcomes.

Od Havla do Pavla: ciągłość i zmiana w relacjach czesko‑tajwańskich w kontekście bezpieczeństwa ontologicznego

FROM HAVEL TO PAVEL: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN CZECH-TAIWANESE RELATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF ONTOLOGICAL SECURITY For two decades after the fall of Communism, the Czech Republic’s values-based policy toward Taiwan was decisively shaped by President Václav Havel’s political philosophy. In contrast, after 2012, Taiwan began to be gradually marginalised in Czech foreign policy as proponents of closer cooperation with China came to power. However, the end of the next decade brought another turn in CzechTaiwan relations. This article analyses continuity and change in Czech foreign policy through the lens of ontological security theory, pointing out that Taiwan (as well as China) has become an important element of Czech (inter)national identity after 1989.

Foreign Policy Issues of the Republic of Turkey and the United States in the Period after the End of the Cold War until the 2020

At the beginning of the 21st century, in 2002, a new political era began with the arrival of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Islam-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the head of the Republic of Turkey, which was gradually followed by changes in both foreign and domestic policy of the country.
 The main ideologist of modern Turkey’s foreign policy is one of the founders of the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan’s ally, former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, who outlined the strategic priorities of Turkey’s foreign policy in his pioneering work Strategic Depth. In his doctrine, Ahmet Davutoglu argues that Turkey has “strategic depth” that allows it to pursue an independent foreign policy and claims to be the leading state in the region.
 As we know, the Republic of Turkey is located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. According to the doctrine, precisely because of its geographical position and historical ties, it has a desire to influence all these regions (the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, and the Black Sea), what is considered the core of neo-Ottoman ideology.
 Neo-Ottomanism implies a shift of the Turkish political vector from West to East. Since the beginning of the 21st century, neo-Ottomanism as an ideology has become a force responsible for the shape of political life of Turkey. According to the ideology of neo-Ottomanism, the Republic of Turkey must get rid of the subordination of the United States, which will allow it to put itself on a par with such states as Britain, France, Russia, and China.
 Neo-Ottomanism is the main ideological direction of the new foreign policy of the Republic of Turkey. One of the arguments used by Erdogan and his party in moving from a parliamentary to a presidential model is the fact that the country needs a government that is almost as strong and centralized as the Ottoman Empire. At the same time, the president himself and his entourage constantly emphasize that the Turks are the “heirs of the Ottomans” and that the country must return to its former glory and strengthen its political, economic and cultural influence in the former territories of the Ottoman Empire.
 Thus, neo-Ottomanism is part of the official ideology of the Justice and Development Party and the basis of the country’s new identity, shaped by the political elite over the years. Although there is no direct indication of Turkish regional hegemony in the “strategic depth”, most analysts, especially in the West, believe that the expansion of spheres of influence mentioned in the doctrine is, in fact, nothing more than the restoration of Turkey’s monopoly hegemony in the region, but this times by means adapted to the modern era, in particular through the use of political, economic and cultural expansion and other “soft power” tools.

Contagion effects of external monetary shocks on systemic financial risk in China: Evidence from the Euro area and Japan

This study aims to explore the impact of foreign monetary policy changes on systemic financial risk in China based on the cross-country contagion characteristics of monetary policy risk and market interactivity. We find that differences in the spillover effects of external monetary policy risks and the contagion paths of financial risks through different channels have significant time-varying characteristics. Moreover, individual markets show divergent effects in response to external monetary policy shocks, and asymmetric spillover effects exist across markets. Among them, asset price markets carry the main financial risk input pressure, whereas financial institutions and foreign exchange markets are the main senders of systemic risk to other markets. Notably, the cross-border contagion effect of risk from the interest rate hike policy in the Euro area has shown differences compared to the accommodative unconventional monetary policy.

The Role of Political Leaders’ Emotions in Shaping International Rivalries: The Case of Former Bolivian President Evo Morales

Abstract This study applies the appraisal theory of emotions to explore how they influence leaders’ responses in the context of long-standing rivalries between states. It argues that policymakers’ emotions toward a rival country can help elucidate periods of higher and lower tensions in their bilateral relationship. Focusing on the Bolivian–Chilean rivalry, this study examines the case of Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales to shed light on the noticeable change in foreign policy toward Chile during two of his presidential terms. The findings reveal that Morales’s emotions were distinctly different during the period of cooperation or de-escalation compared to the period of escalation of tensions. The period of cooperation is characterized by strategies that promote contact, aligning with motive-consistent appraisals of events. Conversely, the period of escalation is marked by strategies that favor distance, stemming from motive-inconsistent appraisals.

China-Russia Relations and the Crimea Crisis: Does China Still Insist on the Non-interference Principle?

The crisis in Crimea caused the world to condemn Russia's invasive actions. China, as Russia's strategic partner, is in a dilemmatic situation because on the other hand, China has authority at the UN Security Council to maintain world peace. At the same time, China is also implementing its non-interference principle to respond to this challenge. This article will discuss further about how China can balance its interests with Russia through its non-interference principle and the interests that China has towards Russia. The method used in this research is a qualitative method through document study. The theory used is David Welch's theory of foreign policy change. The findings of this study are China's interests towards Russia, namely energy, military cooperation, and influence in Central Asia so that China's pragmatism arises to support Russia.

Устойчивое развитие современной России в контексте политико-культурных оснований

The article touches upon the issue related to the scientific search for factors and conditions that ensure sustain-able development of modern Russia in the midst of new challenges and foreign policy changes. The main at-tention is paid to the political culture, on which not only the political identity of the country, but also the very path of political development of the state depends. The author shows that the political culture of sustainable devel-opment is not based on ideological foundations, but primarily represents a positive set of political orientations of citizens in relation to state policy, its social orientation in the interests of society. Such a political culture, con-taining a balance of values between the people and the elite, will be designed for the long-term development of the system, and ensuring its continuity. At the same time, it highlights the positive properties of inertial char-acter, which help the political system to maintain the trajectory of its movement without losing stability, while the potential of the dialectics of political-cultural development allows it to adapt to the new reality.

The Dynamics of Change in United States Foreign Policy: Contexts, Leadership, and Hegemonic Legitimacy

This article examines the dialectical relationship between continuity and change in the foreign policy of the United States, a hegemonic power. The article begins by exploring the agent–structure problem and the factors that affect changes in foreign policy and the legitimacy of hegemony. It compares the hegemonic leadership styles of three former United States Presidents: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. The article aims to contrast the foreign policy approaches of the three presidents and present two main arguments. In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of foreign policy, it is imperative to analyse dynamic components such as contextual factors and leadership. This includes the leaders’ worldviews and their ability to adapt to unanticipated crises. The gradual decline of the United States’ hegemony in the international order can be attributed to structural transformations within the international order and the erosion of its social capital and its role as hegemon. Yet, the leadership styles adopted by American presidents have a significant impact on the erosion of the nation’s hegemonic leadership.