Foreign Exchange Trading Research Articles

Exploration and Research on the Development of Higher Vocational English Education in Guangxi

With the acceleration of economic development and globalization and the rapid development of China’s foreign economy, the position of English education in higher vocational education has become increasingly prominent. Particularly in the multi-ethnic and multi-cultural areas of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, higher vocational education undertakes the responsibility of talent export for the construction of the China-ASEAN foreign trade exchange platform. However, the current phenomena and problems existing in higher vocational English education in Guangxi need to be deeply discussed and solved. Therefore, this paper discusses the development ideas of English education mode in Guangxi higher vocational education and studies the feasibility suggestions, in order to provide a reference for the future development of higher vocational English education in Guangxi.

The Existence of Riba in the Products of Cryptocurrency Exchange Companies

This paper intends to examine the existence of riba elements (interest) in the products of cryptocurrency exchange companies locally in Malaysia and the international. Two of the chosen international cryptocurrency exchange companies, namely Huobi and KuCoin, and one local company, Luno Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., were analyzed based on their websites and applications. It was found that riba exist in the products offered by international cryptocurrency exchange companies, specifically crypto loans, and lending. Meanwhile, the local one does not offer a product that generates riba. It can be concluded the two products that generate riba seem to be mirroring foreign exchange trading, which comprises leverage and margin in loans and lending. Hence, it is suggested not to subscribe to lending and loans products offered by international cryptocurrency exchange companies. This study implies for Muslim investors, who deal with cryptocurrency. It is recommended to do future research on awareness of riba in the products of cryptocurrency exchanges among Muslim investors.

Transforming the remittance industry: harnessing the power of blockchain technology

PurposeThis study employs an interpretivist approach to investigate how blockchain technology can transform the remittance industry.Design/methodology/approachWe collected data from blockchain experts with extensive experience, compellingly demonstrating the revolutionary impact of blockchain technology on the remittance sector.FindingsDespite experiencing rapid growth, the global remittance sector still faces challenges such as high costs and lengthy transaction times. However, blockchain technology, known for disrupting emerging industries, offers a decentralized and secure mechanism for containing, storing and managing information. By leveraging rapid block confirmations, blockchain reduces settlement times in remittance transactions, enabling value transfers between parties with just a crypto wallet.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this study are profound for theorists, as it validates existing theoretical frameworks, identifies specific pain points and explores exciting opportunities presented by blockchain technology. Additionally, we provide a roadmap for future research and innovation, bridging theory and practice and setting the stage for advancement, fostering knowledge, innovation and the successful integration of blockchain technology in the remittance industry.Originality/valueAnalysis highlights a unanimous consensus among experts regarding the transformative potential of blockchain technology in the remittance industry. This consensus serves as a strong impetus for practitioners to swiftly adopt blockchain-based solutions, capitalizing on opportunities such as stable coin issuance, elimination of intermediaries in foreign exchange trading, access to liquidity and the exploration of new business models. Successfully addressing challenges like congestion and limited reach will ensure seamless integration.

Fx-spot predictions with state-of-the-art transformer and time embeddings

The transformer architecture with its attention mechanism is the state-of-the-art deep learning method for sequence learning tasks and has achieved superior results in many areas such as NLP. Utilizing the transformer architecture for the prediction of sequential time series such as financial time series has hardly been investigated in previous studies. In this research paper, the transformer architecture with time embeddings is used in foreign exchange (FX) trading, the world’s largest financial market, and tests its suitability. A systematic comparison is made between transformer and benchmark models. It also examined which influence multivariate, cross-sectional input data have on the forecasting performance of the various models. The goal of the paper is to contribute to the empirical literature on FX forecasting by introducing a transformer with time embeddings to the forecasting community and assessing the accuracy of corresponding models by forecasting exchange rate movements. Empirical results indicate the suitability of transformer models for FX-Spot forecasting in general but also evidence the need for transformer models for multivariate, cross-sectional input data to outperform other state-of-the-art neural networks such as LSTM.

Trends in the development of foreign economic relations of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area

The expansion of international contacts contributes to improving the image of the region, ensuring its investment attractiveness, acting, along with this, as a primary task of forming targets for the socio-economic well-being of the territory. The priority directions for the development of foreign economic relations of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area are based on economic potential of the region: the fuel and energy sector with accompanying large-scale infrastructure projects and traditional economic sectors of the indigenous peoples of the North. Taking into account the sanctions, the promising directions for the development of foreign economic relations is of particular relevance. The subject of the study is the prerequisites for the formation of foreign economic relations in the Arctic region, trends in the development of foreign trade activities, and features of customs support for export and import operations of foreign trade participants in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area in conditions of economic and political instability. Special attention is paid to the study of prerequisites and trends in the development of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area in order to identify problems and prospects for deepening foreign economic relations in the region. The research method and methodology is based on the use of the following general scientific and private scientific methods of cognition, namely: the method of system analysis, logical and comparative methods, the method of document analysis. The scientific novelty of the study lies in an integrated approach to identifying the prerequisites, specifics of foreign economic activity in the Arctic region, trends and promising areas for expanding foreign economic relations of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area in conditions of economic and political instability. The article presents an assessment of foreign economic relations of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area in modern conditions, identifies the specifics of foreign economic activity in the Arctic region, examines the features of customs support for export-import operations, analyzes statistical data on foreign trade exchange of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, identifies problematic issues, develops an algorithm for increasing exports of products and develops promising directions for the development of foreign economic relations of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area. For the development of the region's economy, it is necessary to modernize the sphere of production of fuel and energy sector and expand the commodity exports of the agricultural sector of traditional activities of the indigenous peoples of the North.

Trading in Foreign Exchange and its Influence on Trade Finance Income Among Commercial Banks in Kenya

This study sought to determine the effect of trading in foreign exchange on trade finance income among commercial banks in Kenya. Hence, the unit of analysis for the research were all the registered and fully operational 39 commercial banks in Kenya. The participants for the study were each trade finance manager for the 39 commercial banks. Data was collected using structured questionnaire which were distributed through the emails and followed by telephone calls from the researcher in order to expedite the response process. These resulted in a response rate of 77%, which is considered good enough for such a study. The research adopted a descriptive research design with data being analysed using the statistical package for social sciences ( SPSS) and the results represented as percentages, mean, median and variances. The study’s inferential analysis, which included correlation analysis and regression analysis, led to the conclusion that there is a significant correlation between trading in foreign exchange and trade finance income. Based on these conclusions, commercial banks are advised to concentrate on trade financing and trade facilitation since foreign exchange will be required at the time that settlement must be carried out. Banks should be aware that fees gained from trading in foreign exchange are in addition to whatever fees they may have earned from other trade finance activities

Predictive modeling of foreign exchange trading signals using machine learning techniques

Predictive modeling of foreign exchange trading signals using machine learning techniques

Exploring New Trends in the Global Foreign Exchange Derivatives Market Based on the European and American Financial Markets

This research delves into the changes in products and participants in the foreign exchange derivatives market in Europe and America. It uncovers the new trends in the global foreign exchange derivatives market. The European and American financial markets are significant players in foreign exchange trading and financial innovation, as they affect the world through their market fluctuations and policy changes. The study reveals that the foreign exchange derivatives market is undergoing new dynamics and environmental changes. Innovative products are emerging, and the level of transaction automation is increasing. The foreign exchange derivatives market in Europe and the United States has transformed from a simple spot foreign exchange transaction to a diverse trading system that covers major global currencies. The proportion structure of trading participants is also changing over time. In conclusion, this research provides profound insights into the global foreign exchange derivatives market. It aims to provide relevant suggestions and references for market participants and regulators based on its analysis.

Analyzing and Forecasting the Exchange Rate of USD/CNY

In this study, based on the characteristics of the ARIMA models and ETS models, respectively, that the former focuses more on autocorrelation between data, while the latter focuses more on trends and seasonality of data sets. These two forms of models are used to forecast the USD/CNY exchange rate. This study used the monthly average USD/CNY exchange rate from January 2010 to June 2023, which taken from the website of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) , which data is provided by People's Bank of China, and used computer software to forecast and test the results using each model. Ultimately, it was found that the forecasts using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) models, were close to each other, with both showing a flattening trend over the long term. In the short term, ETS(M, Ad, N) forecasts an upward trend in the USD/CNY exchange rate while ARIMA(0,1,2) forecasts an almost flat trend. ARIMA (0,1,2) forecasts that the USD/CNY exchange rate shown the shape that finally stabilized at around 6.85, while ETS (M, Ad, N) forecasts around 7.6, and comparatively ARIMA model gives more reliable forecasts on the test set, and fit the training set better. This study compares the accuracy of the ETS model and the ARIMA model in fitting and subsequently forecasting the USD/CNY exchange rate for the period 2010-2023. Future research could build on this by discussing the impact of particular specific events and policies on the forecasts at this stage and experimenting with optimization.

Inferring Intermediary Risk Exposure from Trade

We propose a novel measure of intermediary risk exposure based on the fraction of all trade that is conducted between dealers, called the interdealer trade (IDT) measure. Intuitively, when dealers’ aggregate risk exposure rises, they trade more with each other to redistribute inventory shocks. Consistent with risk exposures relating to expected returns, market-specific IDT measures add incremental return predictability across five different markets. For example, one-standard-deviation increases in the Treasury and foreign exchange (FX) IDT measures, respectively, forecast a 1.8% higher annual excess return on a five-year bond and a 3.7% higher annual excess return on currency-specific FX trades. This paper was accepted by David Sraer, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01831 .

Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?

AbstractIn this study, we examined the effectiveness of central bank communications during times of significant adverse shocks. Specifically, we examined how the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regulated foreign exchange (FX) markets during the Russo‐Ukrainian War in 2022. Data collected from both the black and authorized FX markets suggested that the content of the NBU's announcements significantly impacted FX market agents. Announcements aimed at maintaining a fixed (floating) FX rate prompted an increase (decrease) in the black market premium in cash transactions. Moreover, the NBU's announcements influenced the sale side of foreign currency more than any other aspect, an area where the black market FX traders held near monopolistic power.

Peculiarities of accounting and information and analytical provision of import of services in conditions of martial law

The introduction of martial law in Ukraine led to the need to adjust the legislative and regulatory field for the period of such a state of action. The importation of goods, works, and services into the customs territory of Ukraine in the conditions of war and calculations for their supply were changed and supplemented by regulations from the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine, and the National Bank of Ukraine. Thus, after the declaration of martial law by the Decree of the President of Ukraine dated February 24, 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine introduced restrictions on the implementation of import transactions with non-residents of Ukraine who are located or registered in Belarus and the Russian Federation. Several laws and regulations have abolished taxes, mandatory payments, and customs duties. The mentioned novelties concern goods and services supplied and performed for defence needs by residents and non-residents of Ukraine, except those who pay the relevant taxes, payments, and fees. The listed import transactions must be appropriately registered in the accounting department of enterprises. For timely, accurate, and correct management of accounting tasks, entrepreneurs used the 1C: Accounting program, the developer of which is a resident of the Russian Federation and which is subject to appropriate sanctions. Based on this, updating the software package 1C: Accounting became impossible in Ukraine, and users had to decide on the choice of existing alternatives (AB OFFICE 4.1, BookKeeper SaaS, ERP FOSS, Debit Plus, iFin Zvit, M.E.DOC, Dilovod and MASTER: Accounting). The software can have several variations: 1) installed on computer hardware of the appropriate configuration and 2) cloud location of the program at one of these providers (Amazon, Microsoft, etc.). The choice of software depends on the client's needs. The software can have a standard set of functions or be developed individually for the needs of the customer company. Accounting of economic transactions includes accounts of class 2 (23, 28), class 3 (31, 33, 37), class 6 (63, 64, 68), class 7 (71) and class 9 (91, 92, 93, 94, 95). Documentation of operations for accounting for the import of goods and services includes a declaration (when goods or services cross the border), an invoice, a report of completed works, or an invoice (when registering goods, works, and services at the foreign trade exchange). Keywords: regulatory and legislative regulation, accounting of import operations, taxes and fees, automation of import accounting, information, and analytical support.

Forex In The Eyes Of Shariah: A Qualitative Analysis In The Malaysian Context

The purpose of this study is to expound the fundamentals leading to the verdict about the permissibility of foreign exchange trading or simply forex. The jurisdiction will cover Quranic verses, Hadith and Islamic legal maxims or commonly known as qawaid fiqhiyyah. The contemporary views of the ulema were also discussed as the scope would later be focused in a Malaysian context. The primary data from a questionnaire to 100 Malaysian respondents would be presented. The findings show that most of the Malaysian respondents were aware of Forex trading but they had never attempted. This was due to their state of not well informed about Forex due to skepticism and extreme doubt. They also felt more secure not involved with this trading and this related strongly to their prejudice. Therefore, implications were covered in three spheres of influence: economic, social and national perspectives. Finally, recommendations for respective parties such as governments, auctioning bodies and general public would be mentioned as well in order to address the public incognizance about Forex from Sharia perspective. The research concluded that riba (usury) will never be accepted in any circumstances, and if Forex insists on incorporating this despised element, then this financial transaction might stay haram (forbidden) indefinitely, unless otherwise abiding the Islamic apparatus and guidelines.

Prediksi Harga pada Trading Forex Pair USDCHF Menggunakan Regresi Linear

In the era of globalization, free trade grows rapidly and technology develops, affecting economic competition. Forex, foreign exchange trading, is one of the investments used to face this challenge. Technical and fundamental analysis is used to predict price movements in forex trading. Previous studies have used linear regression algorithms and other techniques for price prediction in forex. In this study, the linear regression algorithm is used to predict closing prices in forex trading because the linear regression algorithm is an algorithm that has been widely used in predictions, its strengths are in estimating simple model parameters and data based on time series. In addition, the linear regression algorithm can perform analysis using several independent variables so that the prediction results can be more accurate. The purpose of this study is to create a forex price prediction model, to make it easier for traders to make price predictions. A dataset of 2066 data was obtained through the metatrader software and processed through the preprocessing stage. The linear regression model was created using 5 scenarios, and the evaluation was carried out using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values to select the best model. The results show that linear regression is able to predict the closing price of the USDCHF pair. The best linear regression model is obtained using the independent variable in scenario 1, namely the Open variable, with a linear regression equation of y=0.0145+0.9849x, the best MSE is 0.0000328509 and the best RMSE is 0.0057315705.

Support Vector Machine for Predicting Candlestick Chart Movement on Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange, commonly called Forex, is a form of investment in the non-real sector in great demand. Forex is a marketplace that specializes in foreign exchange trading. Technology advancements have made it easy to monitor investment conditions in real time and present them in an easyto - understand graphical form. As a result, predictions are closely related to investment, starting from market sentiment and economic conditions to technical matters. One of the Artificial Intelligence methods that can be used in classifying is the Support Vector Machine (SVM). SVM is a machine learning classification method based on the Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) principle to find the best hyperplane that separates two classes in the input space that determines the classification decision function by minimizing empirical risk. This study used candlestick patterns to predict foreign exchange chart movements using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification method. The purpose of this study was to measure the accuracy of the Support Vector Machine method in making predictions using candlestick patterns so that it can assist traders in making decisions in forex trading. The accuracy level obtained from the data classification results reached 90.72% with a precision of 87.69%. With a relatively good level of accuracy, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method can be used to predict chart movements in foreign exchange using candlesticks to indicate the current trend’s direction.

PERMIT OBLIGATIONS AND THREAT OF CRIMINAL SANCTION FOR NON-BANK OR UNLICENSED MONEY CHANGER BUSINESS ACTIVITIES BEFORE EFFECTIVENESS OF LAW ON FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF 2023

The exchange of foreign currency to rupiah or vice versa in Indonesia can be carried out by the public in the commercial banks or non - banks business entities commonly called as money changer or non-bank foreign exchange traders. The business activities of the non-bank foreign exchange traders (KUPVA BB) in general thrive in the areas which economy, tourism activities are growing and the area that is the area being the origin of the Indonesian workers working abroad. The purpose of writing of this paper is to study the legal basis of regulation and supervision of KUPVA BB in Indonesia, the permit obligations from Bank Indonesia, as well sanctions for breach of non-permit KUPVA BB from Bank Indonesia. The research method used is the normative law study or doctrinal research. From the result of study, it is obtained the conclusion that the regulation, supervision and permit of KUPVA BB are carried out by Bank Indonesia by referring to the Law, Bank Indonesia, the Law on Foreign Exchange Traffic and Regulation of Bank Indonesia governing KUPVA BB. There is no criminal threat for the breach of obligation to obtain KUPVA BB permit from Bank Indonesia thereby make it difficult in eradication of illegal KUPVA BB currently.

Forecasting exchange rate volatility: is economic policy uncertainty better?

ABSTRACT Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) reflects more information related to exchange rate volatility than traditional macroeconomic variables do, and thus may have stronger predictive power in forecasting exchange rate volatility. Based on data from developed and developing economies (including Japan, the United Kingdom, the Euro Area, Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, and China), this paper provides in- and out-of-sample evidence that the EPU differential between two economies outperforms several macroeconomic predictors (for example, GDP growth and volatility of inflation growth) in forecasting exchange rate volatility, which is also supported by a Monte Carlo experiment. Moreover, the mechanism analysis shows that increased EPU differential is associated with increased foreign exchange trading activities and reduced bilateral trade, which helps explain the predictive power of EPU for exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, we find that EPU can predict both long- and short-run components of exchange rate volatility. Our main findings are robust after using alternative empirical proxies or controlling for endogeneity.

Foreign exchange trading and management with the stochastic dual dynamic programming method

We present a novel tool for generating speculative and hedging foreign exchange (FX) trading policies. Our solution provides a schedule that determines trades in each rebalancing period based on future currency prices, net foreign account positions, and incoming (outgoing) flows from business operations. To obtain such policies, we construct a multistage stochastic programming (MSP) model and solve it using the stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) numerical method, which specializes in solving high-dimensional MSP models. We construct our methodology within an open-source SDDP package, avoiding implementing the method from scratch. To measure the performance of our policies, we model FX prices as a mean-reverting stochastic process with random events that incorporate stochastic trends. We calibrate this price model on seven currency pairs, demonstrating that our trading policies not only outperform the benchmarks for each currency, but may also be close to ex-post optimal solutions. We also show how the tool can be used to generate more or less conservative strategies by adjusting the risk tolerance, and how it can be used in a variety of contexts and time scales, ranging from intraday speculative trading to monthly hedging for business operations. Finally, we examine the impact of increasing trade policy uncertainty (TPU) levels on our findings. Our findings show that the volatility of currencies from emerging economies rises in comparison to currencies from developed markets. We discover that an increase in the TPU level has no effect on the average profit obtained by our method. However, the risk exposure of the policies increases (decreases) for the group of currencies from emerging (developed) markets.

Production and foreign trade exchange of raspberries: Case study of Serbia

In paper are presented the derived research results on raspberries production in the Republic of Serbia, at total and by regions. Research results are clearly showing that raspberries are dominantly grown in Šumadija region and Western Serbia (around 84.8% of raspberries from Serbia are produced there). Mentioned region offers optimal conditions for raspberries production, in terms of microclimate characteristics, soil potential and available water resources. In recent years, raspberries production has been intensively expanding to those areas where it has not traditionally been cultivated until now. This refers primarily to the Region of Vojvodina, while existing and new plantations are also being expanded in the region of Southern and Eastern Serbia. Serbia is ranked among the largest producers and exporters of raspberries worldwide. The largest part of raspberry production in Serbia is exported as frozen to the global market, but mostly to the market of Western Europe. Almost negligible part of produced raspberries is exported as fresh. Purchase price of raspberry has been increasing in previous period, giving the additional motivation to producers to intensify production, or invest in it.

Oil prices, news-based uncertainty measures and exchange rate returns in BRICS countries

Purpose This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries through an interaction term (EPGR). Design/methodology/approach The authors use continuous wavelet transform (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC). First, the authors apply the CWT to examine the evolution of oil prices, EPGR and exchange rate returns. Second, the authors use WC to investigate the relationship between oil price and exchange rate returns (excluding EPGR). Third, the authors use PWC to account for EPGR’s impact on the oil exchange rate returns dynamics and explore partial correlations in the oil and exchange rate returns dynamics. Findings The empirical results generally show that EPGR is a key driver in the oil and exchange rate returns nexus. Practical implications The relevance of EPGR in influencing exchange rate volatility is confirmed by the findings. As a result, it is critical for government officials and foreign exchange investors to use EPGR as a leading indicator when establishing foreign exchange trading strategies and economic forecasts. Originality/value This study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to apply a wavelet-based technique to account for EPGR in the relationship between oil and exchange rate returns in the BRICS countries.