Foreign Exchange Resources Research Articles

The impact of the exchange rate systems on macroeconomic indicators: an evaluation study on Sudan experience 1970–2019)

This study followed both descriptive and correlation approaches to evaluate the impact of the application of the exchange rate systems on Sudan’s macroeconomic indicators from 1970 to 2019. During the 1970s, Sudan adopted the system of fixing exchange rates, and the “managed exchange rate” with the successive devaluation of the local currency during 1980s. During 1990s, the floating and liberalization policy of the exchange rate had been adopted beside the system of the crawling peg between 1997 and 1999. During the first decade of the millennium (i.e., the period of the flow of the oil revenues), Sudan followed a managed exchange rate system and during the second decade (the period of the extreme scarcity of foreign exchange resources after the secession of the southern Sudan). This study concluded that the systems of the fixing exchange rate, the crawling peg and the systems managing exchange rate that are closer to fixing positively supported the macroeconomic indicators, while the systems of exchange rate that are closer to liberalization, floating and flexibility negatively affected the exports, imports gross domestic product (GDP), personal income, and increasing the inflation rate. One of the most important recommendations of this study is the need to adopt a system of the exchange rate that is closer to fixing to ensure the improvement of the macroeconomic indicators.

Improving the Energy Sector and Renewable Energy Resources in Egypt (Challenges, Achievements, And Most Important Projects)

Egypt faces a challenge in providing sufficient resources for energy needs, especially, since Egypt relies mainly on oil and natural gas to meet its energy needs, on which the percentage of dependence has reached 95% of Egypt’s total energy needs. All studies indicate that despite Egypt’s possession of reserves from these sources, due to the growing use of these resources and the high cost of extracting them, Egypt will face a deficit in covering its needs from these resources. Although it is expected that the balance between oil and gas production will return with uses within few years after overcoming the economic difficulties that faced the oil and gas sector, according to Egypt’s energy strategy for the year 2030 and its current update to reach it for the year 2035, it is expected that Egypt will become a permanent importer. Oil and gas within a period not exceeding several years from the beginning of the third decade of this century. This situation represents an additional challenge to the Egyptian economy, as it becomes exposed to price turmoil in the global energy markets, which cannot be expected or controlled. This is in addition to the drain on Egypt’s foreign exchange resources, the impact on the balance of trade, and the reduction of the competitiveness of the national economy. Therefore, the diversification of energy sources must be reconsidered in order to achieve maximum benefit from local resources, which are characterized by sustainability and stability in prices, which are features that characterize electricity production projects from renewable sources, taking into account Egypt’s richness in these resources. Therefore, Egypt has already started implementing many projects that work to provide Egypt’s energy needs, through the project of the nuclear power plant in “Al-Dabaa” in northern Egypt on the Mediterranean coast, as well as power generation projects from renewable energy sources available in Egypt, such as “wind energy” and “solar energy”.

THE ART OF HUMAN PARTICIPATION AGAINST AERTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE WITH GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEM IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY

The development of the tourism industry is very important for developing countries that are facing problems such as high unemployment rates, a distorted international image, limited foreign exchange resources, and a single-product economy, especially oil. Investing in this industry, which is considered a human art, is measured based on the public health of each country and will be the basis for tourists' decisions as a tourist destination. The purpose of this research is to investigate public decision-making in different temporal and spatial conditions based on psychological events. This fact is a must for the tourism industry of a society that must be managed. Then we challenge the artificial intelligence to realize that, entrusting rational decisions can replace human thinking. The methods of this study are based on NPGIS software, where decision-making methods and statistical sampling are determined together. Therefore, the study methods and a case example are presented just to know. Because it has transnational applications. The results show that: entrusting spatial decisions (space-time-place) to artificial intelligence is only possible if we consider the consequences. Finally, time and the criteria related to it show their key role. The fusion of space sciences with the tourism industry can be related to all the industrial and money-making sectors of a country. It seems easy to make an AI that works correctly once a day, but if it tries to do the same thing several times in a day, it becomes more prone to errors.

THE ART OF HUMAN PARTICIPATION AGAINST ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WITH GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEM IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY

Art is an integral part of human life. The development of the tourism industry is very important for developing countries that are facing problems such as high unemployment rate, distorted international image, limited foreign exchange resources and a single product economy, mainly oil. Today, the importance of the tourism industry, which is considered an investment in countries, is not hidden from anyone. This capital is measured based on the general health of that area and will be considered as the basis for tourists’ decision-making for the destination as a tourism goal. Among these, psychological events are also significant. Compliance with the points mentioned in tourism is mandatory for a society. Time and its management are among the most important things that play a major role in increasing or decreasing stress. People have different solutions for their decisions according to different conditions. In today’s artificial intelligence world, it is felt everywhere that humans have entrusted many activities to it, but we must know what the consequences are. The spatial information system has put time and space together in one axis. Transtemporal issues and events that are formed around the axis of time, such as time management, are one of the basic challenges of today’s humanity, and on the other hand, spatial issues are considered an integral part of human life. Therefore, real-time GIS is increasingly associated with innovation. The continuation of this research can be related to all industrial and money-making sectors of a region. which shows the importance of this industry in the continuation of urban development. In this research, the maps of a region have been examined as a case to show the importance of people’s choice and their participation. In this study, NPGIS is introduced in a general way that enhances space-time-location interaction. In the results of the research, time and its related criteria show their key role and show the intermingling of spatial sciences with tourism.

Legal Frameworks for the Establishment of Free Zones: An Analytical Study of the Case of Iraq

Introduction Iraq has legislated Law No. (3) for the year 1998 (the General Authority for Free Zones Law), which stated the reasons for it “a desire to push the wheel of economic and social development forward by attracting national, Arab and foreign capital and industrial investments from developed countries, introducing advanced technology and creating new job opportunities and an increase in the volume of exports and foreign exchange resources, and for the management and investment of free zones as an Iraqi investment that serves national, Arab and international purposes.” Therefore, there was a need to review the General Authority for Free Zones Law No. (3) of 1998, which was brief, and to issue a new law for the purpose of working to impose mechanisms for adjudicating disputes arising from investment in them, while defining clear mechanisms of action and liberating them from the internal laws and procedures of the host country to give complete freedom for its investors to work without linking it to secondary parties as it is an international area subject only to its own law. Where these regions play a major role in stimulating the foreign trade of the host countries, not to mention their important role in stimulating the movement of internal trade and national industries, in addition to their role in attracting foreign investments and transferring technology to those host countries. Research Objective The research aims to address the free zones, legal frameworks, and legislation from which the free zones were established in Iraq and compare them with some legislation and laws of selected countries to reach a legal framework that can achieve positive results for the free zones. Research Hypothesis The hypothesis of the research is based on the following: The legal frameworks and legislation appropriate to free zones have a positive role when compared with the legislation and laws of selected countries. Research Structure The research deals with three topics. The first topic includes the legal conceptual rooting of free zones and their differences from legal systems. The second topic deals with the legal frameworks for free zones in Iraq. The third topic deals with the legal frameworks of selected countries for free zones.

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Abstract. Introduction. This article examines the domestic state loan bond market in Ukraine, taking into account the pandemic and the war with Russia. The deficit state of Ukraine's budget necessitates attracting additional funds to finance growing expenses. The government securities market is an important component of the country's financial system. The Ukrainian government most often issues bonds of the domestic state loan (OVDP), in their essence, these debt securities are an important tool of fiscal policy. Circulation of bonds in Ukraine is carried out exclusively in electronic form. The largest volumes of issuance of debt securities were recorded in 2014 and since 2019 till 2021 years. These years were a crisis for Ukraine, and the need for additional resources is justified. The work analyzed that the main buyers on the OVDP market are banking institutions and non-residents, while individuals do not have sufficient knowledge about the possibility of investing in debt securities. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study trends in the volume of OVDP issuance on the stock market of Ukraine during 2013-2022, as well as directions for the use of withdrawn funds. If we talk about investing in foreign currency, the article examines that it is more profitable to invest in OVDP, rather than depositing, especially the high yield of bonds denominated in US dollars. Results. The authors analyzed and demonstrated the size of the issue of OVDP on the primary market and directions of use of funds from this placement. An important economic phenomenon during the issuance of a currency OVDP is the strengthening of the national monetary unit - the hryvnia. In this way, the government can influence the stability of the national currency. However, when the bond matures, there is a reverse effect, which is why it is important to take this into account and to facilitate the maturity of debt securities to coincide with a period when foreign exchange resources are flowing into the country in a larger volume than usual. Conclusions. Conclusions were made that for the state OVDP is a significant source of financing for state budget expenditures. It is noted that domestic state loan bonds play an essential role in the development of the economy as a whole because the funds received from their issue are used to cover the budget deficit, finance investment, and social projects.

Проблема золотовалютных резервов советского государства в 1920–1930-е годы

The articleclarifiesthe gold andforeign exchangecapabilities ofthe Sovietstate, analyzesthe process offormation and use bythe Soviet government of gold-platinum funds of the state budget. On the basis of archival material, the state of the gold reserve, sources of replenishment, and the expenditure of foreign exchange resources are analyzed. The ways of accumulation and export of precious metals from the country, creation of public finances and maneuvering with the available resource are revealed. The issues of the activity of concessions are considered on the example of Lena-Goldfields.

Regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the energy of the Caspian Sea

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of independent republics, the Caspian Sea changed from an inland sea between Iran and the Soviet Union to an international sea with new neighbors. The use of the lake’s energy was of great importance to the littoral states, which sought to consolidate their independence and acquire foreign exchange resources in order to shape their financial resources for political security and independence. The transfer of these energy resources from the Caspian Sea to the consuming countries required the construction of new pipelines and transit routes, so that the newly independent countries could be removed from the control of the Russian government. Energy production and its transfer is an effective organizer to promote regional cooperation and economic link between countries, which in terms of national interests can be different achievements for each of the countries involved in transfer projects. In the meantime, an approach, and regional policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran to this issue can be important politically and in terms of security for the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main question is what effect can energy and its transmission through pipelines have on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The results of answering this question show that according to the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the interface between the energy resources of the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf, which is known as the world energy heartland and the confinement of the newly independent Caspian countries In addition to economic benefits, the participation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in transit and energy supply has made the international economy dependent on Iran, and this can lead to the political and economic security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Trade Finance, Gaps and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review of Events and Policy Responses to Date

Developments in trade finance in 2020 were largely driven by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Twelve years after the great financial crisis of 2008-09, the issue of trade finance reemerged as a matter of urgency. While the current pandemic-related crisis did not have a financial cause, one of its results has been that many countries are experiencing difficulties in accessing trade credit. This is occurring notably in countries – particularly developing countries – in which structural trade finance gaps were high even before the pandemic. As the health crisis developed and persisted, banks experienced an increase in failures by traders to fulfil payments, including in industries and sectors beyond those initially impacted by lockdowns, such as airlines, aeronautics and tourism. It quickly became evident that one-off extensions of terms of payment by creditors would be insufficient to alleviate the trade finance crisis. Based on the experience of the 2008-09 crisis, governments, export credit agencies and international financial institutions, including multilateral development banks, rapidly intervened to support private markets. Multilateral development banks have provided record amounts of trade finance guarantees and liquidity in developing countries, while governments have implemented payment deferral schemes. Large central banks have supplied foreign exchange resources to other central banks through swap agreements. Efforts to date have been substantial, but challenges remain in 2021, connected first with how to support the importation and exportation of vaccines against COVID-19, and then with how to encourage the recovery of trade flows. Recent events, policy responses and upcoming challenges are discussed and analysed in this paper.

KERAGAMAN SERANGGA PENGUNJUNG BUNGA KELAPA SAWIT (Elaeis guineensis Jacq) DI PERKEBUNAN SWASTA SINGINGI HILIR, RIAU

Kelapa sawit (Elaeis quineensis Jacq) merupakan salah satu tanaman komoditas andalan sumber devisa non migas bagi Indonesia. Bunga kelapa sawit mengeluarkan senyawa volatil yang dapat mengundang datang nya serangga. Jenis serangga yang mengunjungi bunga kelapa sawit beragam, tidak semua yang mengunjungi bunga mampu berperan sebagai penyerbuk. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari keragaman serangga bunga kelapa sawit sehingga informasi yang diperoleh dapat bermanfaat untuk kegiatan konservasi berikutnya. Identifikasi dilakukan sampai tingkat morfospesies. Metode purposive sampling digunakan untuk menentukan tanaman sampel yang digunakan untuk diamati keragaman serangga pengunjungnya. Berdasarkan hasil pengamatan keragaman pada bunga kelapa sawit diperoleh 16 morfospesies yaitu dengan urutan banyaknya populasi yaitu E. kamerunicus, Gelechiidae sp. 01, Chelisoches sp. Rhabdoscelus sp, Forficula sp, Velinus nigrigenu, Salticidae sp. 1, Formicinae sp.1, Tirathaba sp, Rhinocoris fuscipes, Thrips hawaiiensis, Formicinae sp.2, Metisa sp, Tetragnathide sp. 1, Thomisidae sp. 1, Euchantecona sp. dengan indeks dominasi 0,89, indeks keragaman 0,33 dan indeks kemerataan 0,12 yang tergolong rendah.

Replanting policy of Indonesian palm oil plantation in strengthening the implementation of sustainable development goals

Indonesia’s palm oil industry is one of the National strategic commodities. This industry is inclusive and has a very broad impact on Indonesia’s economic development, regional development, poverty alleviation, the country’s foreign exchange resources and attempted to help overcome Indonesia’s balance of payments deficit. Along with the end of the first 25 years of age in most of oil palm plantations in Indonesia, the replanting policy has become an important momentum, because it concerns the future of the Indonesian oil industry, then continued with the second milestone of the 2040s. With replanting, Indonesia also improves productivity and is followed by improvements in technical culture. Indonesian oil palm productivity is directed to reach the 35-26 scenario, which is the production of 35 tons of FFB per ha and 26 percent yield so that Indonesia’s palm productivity will shift from productivity levels of 4.4 tons of CPO per hectare to 9 tons of CPO per hectare. With this level of productivity, Indonesia’s CPO production will increase from 77.17 million tons in 2050 to 94.64 million tons. The purpose of this study is not merely to look at oil palm plantations from an economic standpoint because in a broader scope, oil palm plantations have four multifunction agriculture, namely green functions, blue functions, yellow functions, and white functions. The replanting policy of Indonesian palm oil also plays a role in strengthening Indonesia’s palm oil industry in the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, which includes the economic fields (8 SDGs), social fields (6 SDGs) and the environment (3 SDGs).

International Conference on Sustainable Agriculture for Rural Development 2018 (ICSARD 2018)

PREFACEOn behalf of the Organizing Committee, I would like to express my sincere gratitude for your contributions and participations in the International Conference on Sustainable Agriculture for Rural Development 2018 (ICSARD 2018) which was held in Purwokerto, Indonesia, 23-24 October 2018.Agriculture is a vital sector since it provides foods and raw materials related to food for human life. Agriculture gives employment opportunities to a very large proportion of communities. It also has a great significance in global trade as well as foreign exchange resources, which in turn might improve a country's GNP value. Agriculture is at a crossroad. It has to find ways to feed the world while being environmentally, socially and economically sustainable. The International Conference on Sustainable Agriculture for Rural Development 2018 (ICSARD 2018), therefore, was aimed to promote scientific and educational activities towards the advancement of knowledge by improving the theory and practice of various disciplines and areas of sustainable agriculture. This conference addressed the food system activities of processing, distributing and consuming food, as well as food production from crop and livestock; the availability, access, utilization and stability dimensions of agriculture; and the synergies and trade-offs between economic, environmental, health and social objectives and outcomes. The conference became an excellent opportunity for academic researchers, industry professionals, government delegates and students to interact and share their experiences and knowledge on cutting-edge developments in the fields of Agro-technology, Soil Science, Agronomy, Horticulture, Plant Protection, Plant Breeding and Biotechnology, Agroecology, Food Science and Technology, Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, as well as Socio-economics of Agriculture and Agribusiness.ICSARD 2018 was organized by the Faculty of Agriculture, Jenderal Soedirman University, Indonesia. The conference was joined by eight keynote speakers who are leading experts from reputable organizations, i.e. Prof. Dr. Robert Edwin Paull (University of Hawai’i at Manoa), Prof. Dr. Shao Hui Zheng (Saga University, Japan), Dr. Tuyen Chan Kha (Nong Lam University, Vietnam), Prof. Dr. Rindit Pambayun (Sriwijaya University, Indonesia), Prof. Lilik Soetiarso, Ph.D (Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia), Prof. Dr. Ahmad Yunus (Sebelas Maret University, Indonesia), Prof. Loekas Soesanto, Ph.D (Jenderal Soedirman University, Indonesia), and Prof. Totok Agung DH, Ph.D (Jenderal Soedirman University, Indonesia). Participants of this conference came from Sudan, Ecuador, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.As the general chair of this conference, I realize that the success of the conference depends ultimately on the many people who have worked with us in planning and organizing both the technical program and supporting social arrangements. In particular, we thank the Program Chairs for their wise advice and brilliant suggestion on organizing the technical program and also the Scientific Committee for their thorough and timely reviewing of the papers. Recognition should go to the Organizing Committee members who have all worked extremely hard for the details of important aspects of the conference programs and social activities. We would also like to thank our special honorary guests and plenary speakers for their dedication to this event.I hope that this publication can bring beneficial contributions to the development of knowledge particularly in the field of sustainable agriculture.Susanto Budi Sulistyo, Ph.D.Jenderal Soedirman University, Purwokerto, IndonesiaGeneral Chair of ICSARD 2018 Conference CommitteeFebruary 2019, Purwokerto, Indonesia

Rehabilitation of timber bridges in Ghana with case studies of the Kaase Modular Timber Bridge

Abstract Construction of bridges in Ghana has largely been done in reinforced concrete and steel to a lesser extent. These materials and construction technology employed are very expensive and a severe drain on the foreign exchange resources of the country. However, timber is readily available and could be utilised for bridge construction in Ghana. In order to demonstrate the viability of local timber for bridge construction, a prototype timber bridge designed to withstand American AASHTO-HS-20-44 and Interstate Highway loads was constructed over river Subin at Kaase, in Kumasi. The Kaase Timber Bridge was built in 1990 and has since been in exploitation. Inspection of the bridge in 2015 showed extensive deterioration of the timber pile caps, the timber piles, the timber decking, the timber abutment and wing walls due to environmental factors. However, the built-up timber girders were found to be in very good condition except minor deterioration at the ends of the girders in contact with the soil. The extent of deterioration necessitated rehabilitation of the bridge. This paper describes the processes undertaken to rehabilitate the bridge after years of use. The Kaase Timber Bridge has demonstrated the applicability of local wood species in bridge construction. The initiative can be extended to low traffic volume roads in the rural setting to improve connectivity.

Characteristics of agriculture in Uzbekistan in the years of independence

Abstract: Agriculture plays an important role in the national economy of the Uzbekistan Republic. The article analyzes the main changes and reforms undertaken since independence. Particular attention is paid to the develop-ment of farming enterprises, structural changes in the crop area, land reclamation. Keywords: agriculture, agricultural products, farm and farmer facilities, cotton, grain, land reclamation, reforms. Deep reforms were implemented in the Uzbekistan ag-riculture after the country gained its independence. This pe-riod can be characterized as a stage of intensive agriculture development. At that time agricultural products were the main source of foreign exchange resources. They were vital for the country food and became the main area of equip-ment and technology import. Special attention was paid to the grain production. The goal was to achieve self-sufficiency, and this task was carried out by limiting the monopoly of cot -ton. For example, from 1990 to 2013, the size of cultivated areas increased from 433.2 thousand acres to 1 610.7 thousand acres, or almost 4 times. The productivity of land increased from 12.8 to 44.1 hwt/ha (Fig. 1). The harvest gross increased from 553.5 thousand tons to 6545.3 thousand tons. The size of cultivated areas was increased with re-cultivated land and areas irrigated for cotton. Moreover, a higher productivity was achieved. In 1993–2013 the amount of land planted with cotton was reduced from 1721.0 thousand hectares to 1 342.5 thou -sand hectares. Thereby the raw cotton production decreased from 4 646.3 thousand tons to 3 442.3 thousand tons.In the studied years you can easily observe the expan-sion of cultivated land with land for food. Reduction of land for cotton was much less. At that time, with the exception of pasture for cattle from the agricultural lands, reducing acre-age for feed grains in irrigated lands created a number of problems in the animal husbandry. In 1991 the agricultural sector owned 92 % of the pastures; the total pasture area de-creased by 40% due to the extremely haphazard livestock production and reduce of pasture fertility reduce without its recreating [1].One part of unsuitable pastures was included in the cat-egory of reserved lands, and the other became forest fund. Country livestock has about 13 million hectares of grazing land, most of which are located on the territory of the Karakal -pakstan Republic, as well as Bukhara, Kashkadarya and Navoi regions, where there is the bulk of grown cattle (sheep).The Tashkent, Navoi and Khorezm regions lead in live-stock productivity in the country. When it comes to gross fig -ures, Samarkand, Khorezm, Kashkadarya, Bukhara become leaders in the meat production of meat. Samarkand, Khorezm, Kashkadarya take the first place in milk production. Cities like Tashkent, Samarkand, Khorezm and Andijan are leaders in the egg production. Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Navoi, Bukhara and Djizzak are leading in the production of wool [2].

Macro-economic Policies and Energy Security—Implications for a Chronic Energy Deficit Country

The paper assesses the energy sector’s foreign exchange requirements for meeting energy consumption and for capital expenditures, and identifies its implications for the country’s macroeconomic policy and management. We develop a conceptual model for projecting the energy sector’s long-term requirements for foreign exchange. The model indicates that the country’s chronic dependence on oil imports is likely to expose the economy to high and volatile oil prices. A fundamental issue for Pakistan is how the energy projects requiring large inflows of foreign capital and technology will be financed. The main implication of our analysis is that there will be continuing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources. The demand for foreign exchange by the year 2024-25 is projected to be US$ 20-21 billion without the FDI in new power generation. However, when we include the requirements of foreign exchange for capital expenditure, the total FX requirements are in the range of US$ 23- 24 billion. An implication of the country’s chronic energy deficiency is that the macroeconomic policies, particularly the foreign exchange rate policy, need to be redefined to reflect the projected demands on hard currencies and their expected scarcity value. It is likely that Pakistan will remain dependent on foreign imports to meet its energy requirements for a long time and will need to generate commensurate foreign exchange resources to ensure longterm energy security. JEL classification: E66, F37, Q43 Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Energy Security

Effects of Short-run and Long-run Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates on Banks' Profit

In this article, we have planned to examine the effects of foreign exchange changes on Banks' operations andprofits by applying Error Correction Model (ECM) both in short-run and long-run periods. Data of exchange rates,foreign exchange positions, foreign exchange resources and profits have been drawn from the balance sheets andstatements of profit and loss in one of the commercial banks in Iran for the period of five years from 2006 to 2010.The results indicate that short-run increase in exchange rate has a reaction over the expected level, whilst the profitis over the equilibrium rate of exchange in long-run. Meantime, there is a significant, stationary model for thebahaviour of exchange rate both in short-run and long-run towards Banks' profit. In general, based on the result ofthe present research, we can come to this conclusion that despite non-stationarity of exchange rate and foreignexchange profit, there is a co-integration between these two variables. Meanwhile, there is a significant, stationarymodel for the short- and long-run behaviour of exchange rate and its effects on bank foreign exchange profit. Inaddition, the effect of exchange rate changes on foreign exchange profit in short-run is more than the one inlong-run. Finally, error correction coefficient is 1.23 and the required time to reach long-run equilibrium would be4, when short- and long-run equilibriums are overlapped.

An Appraisal of Foreign Exchange Resources Generation and Management

Problem statement: The study reviewed and appraised foreign exchange resources generation during and after SAP, it also identified the problem area of foreign exchange resources generation and management. Approach: Secondary data from CBN statistical bulletin were analyzed using descriptive and comparative analysis. Results: Result shows that the contribution of non-oil export to total export was as low as 1.5, 4.87, 3.07, 2.46, 1.66 and 2.82% for 2001-2006 compared with oil export which was high for the periods and that this was caused by unstable exchange rate. The result revealed increase in the level off investment for the period. Conclusion: In conclusion, effort should be aimed at blocking areas of reserve leakages. Other sources of generating foreign exchange should be pursued.

The importance of electrical energy for economic growth in Barbados

Using a neo-classical aggregate production model where capital, labour, technology, and energy are treated as separate inputs, this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and electrical energy use in Barbados, analysed as a whole and in sectors respectively. Results indicate the presence of a long-run relationship between growth and electricity consumption; specifically we find that the non-residential sector is a key driver of growth. In addition, the evidence reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between electrical energy consumption and real GDP in the long run, but only a unidirectional causal relationship from energy to output in the short run. Forecasts indicate increasing consumption of electrical energy, particularly by the residential sector. We suggest that plans by the Government to liberalise the sector should encourage efficiency and innovation in production and distribution which should result in lower prices, as independent suppliers compete to maintain their market shares. Changes in the regulatory environment will also be necessary if such plans materialise. Policymakers will need to pay greater attention to the expected increase in the rate of consumption by the residential sector, as this will help to reduce the imports of oil and depletion of scarce foreign exchange resources by a sector that does not spur economic growth. An increase in energy capacity should be encouraged as contingency planning in the event of a technical or political disruption to fuel imports will be critical, notwithstanding the drive to use more renewable sources of energy.

A Critical Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policies and the Value of Domestic Currency in Nigeria, 1970 – 2002

This paper critically appraised exchange rate policies and its influence on the value of the domestic currency (i.e. Naira) in Nigeria for the period 1970 through 2002 within the framework of tabular approach. Exchange rate theories and the exchange rate policies prior to SAP, during SAP and after SAP were reviewed. The relationship between exchange rate theories and exchange rate policies as it affects the value of the domestic currency was equally reviewed. It was discovered in this study that the exchange rate policies adopted within this period has either caused the value of the domestic currency to appreciate or depreciate due to a number of factors or practices in the foreign exchange market which is determined by the forces of demand and supply. For instance, in the pre-SAP era (1970- 1986), the value of the currency appreciated in 1970 through to 1975 due to the operation of an independent exchange rate system when the Pound Sterling ceased to serve as a direct external anchor for the Nigerian currency. While there was a depreciation in the value of the Naira in 1976 and 1977 as a result of the introduction of US dollar as one of the reference currencies. Between 1986 and 2002, the floating exchange rate policy was introduced and the value of the Naira steadily depreciated between 1986 and 2001 due to some factors among which are over valuation of the Naira; excess demand of foreign exchange over supply, excess liquidity in the economy, capital flight from the economy; round-tripping etc. But in 2002, the Naira appreciated due to the introduction of Dutch auction system which emphasizes on market-oriented approach to price determination of which the economic implication resulted to stability in the exchange rate, a boost on non oil export and growth in the economy due to improved credit worthiness. This paper concludes that SAP had failed the nation in many ways and that to achieve stable value of the naira, the current exchange rate policy, the Dutch Auction System should be maintained with the enforcement of two-quote system in the IFEM. Firstly, the CBN should monitor the use of foreign exchange resources to ensure that foreign exchange disbursement and utilization are in consonance with the predetermined economic preferences and also with the purview of the yearly foreign exchange budget.LWATI: A Journal of Contemporary Research Vol. 5 2008: pp. 279-297

Trouble in Paradise? Savings and Growth in Fiji, 1970-2001

This article reviews Fiji's macroeconomic performance and assesses the relative significance of foreign exchange, domestic savings and public sector resources on Fiji's economic growth by formulating and estimating a three-gap model. The foreign exchange gap equation indicates a sharp tradeoff between investment and capacity utilization. The government savings constraint also appears to be binding. The model is then simulated for the period between 1997 and 2001 underfourgrowth path 'scenarios' that make differing assumptions concerning Fiji's output, exports and capital flows. The results suggest that the external financing required to achieve a 'socially desirable' growth path is modest, amounting to an average of 3.5 per cent of potential output.