Foreign Economic Policy Research Articles

A Framework for the Assessment of Fiscal Consequences of Global Trade Wars

The article is devoted to topical issues of assessing the consequences of trade wars for the fiscal space of third countries. The main preconditions and causes of the trade conflict between the United States and China were studied. The main models for assessing the consequences of global trade wars were analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the global integrated monetary, fiscal and global trade models, which are based on the principles of general economic equilibrium and are widely used to assess the economic consequences of global challenges, including trade wars. It was found that the global integrated monetary and fiscal model, other macroeconomic models were aimed at determining the economic consequences and effects and cannot be directly used to assess fiscal risks and likely budget losses due to global trade wars. The aim of the article is to deepen the principles of assessing the fiscal consequences of trade wars in the conditions of uncertainty in foreign economic policy and directions of restructuring of the world value chains. The economic consequences of the conflict and the channels of their spread to third countries were identified taking into account the deepening globalization processes. The direct and indirect dependence of exports and imports, GDP, investments, factor productivity level and tax revenues on changes in foreign trade, tariff increases, increasing uncertainty in world trade in the short, medium and long term is highlighted. The estimates obtained by different models are summarized. The fiscal consequences of the trade conflict between the United States and China for Ukraine as a country with a small, open and predominantly commodity economy were quantified. The inclusion in fiscal risks of probable losses of foreign trade from global trade wars, arising due to various reasons, which may decrease the tax revenues or increase the expenditures on the public support of enterprises, is justified. Changes in the methodology for assessment of fiscal risks are proposed, enabling to estimate the cost impact of fiscal risks on the public budget of Ukraine. Proposals for improvements in the statistical monitoring of business activity of enterprises, to form an appropriate information base for monitoring foreign economic activities, assessing fiscal risks and making decisions to ensure the sustainability of public finance and public support for enterprises in the conditions of global trade wars, are substantiated.

Development of transitive economies in the context of foreign trade regulation of the WTO

The problem of foreign trade regulation is one of the important problems that directly affect the key moments of the country’s socio-economic development: from the choice of the optimal economic development model to the determination of geopolitical priorities in foreign economic policy.

Russia in the economic context of China, the USA, Germany, and India

Subject. The article addresses the economic cooperation of Russia with major countries. Objectives. The aim is to identify conditions for the growth and development of the Russian economy in relations with China, the USA, Germany, and India. Methods. The study draws on the systems approach, using the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The main condition for the growth of the Russian economy is the excess of direct investments from the USA, India and Germany over investments from China. Russia is dependent on China's external balance of goods and services. The rate of growth of Russia’s military expenditures is commensurate with Germany and India. Conclusions. The identified conditions for the growth of the Russian economy enable the country’s leadership to formulate reasonable foreign economic policies.

ЧИННИКИ ВПЛИВУ НА ФІНАНСОВИЙ ПОТЕНЦІАЛ АГРАРНИХ СУБ’ЄКТІВ ГОСПОДАРЮВАННЯ

In the conditions of Russia's military aggression, the basis for development in Ukraine should be the realization of the potential for economic growth, taking into account the significant resources and capabilities of its components. Financial potential, as a component of economic potential, is distinguished by a specific feature of financial relations in the economy. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the main factors influencing the financial potential of agricultural entities and areas of its support. Definitions of potential and financial potential are revealed. It is noted that in more detail the quantitative and cost manifestation of financial potential is monitored at the level of an individual entity, where all factors of the functional economic system are fixed in the balance sheet, which allows to calculate their efficiency and optimize the component structure. The article highlights the main factors influencing the financial potential of economic entities in the agricultural sector, divides them into factors of external and internal environment that affect the strategic development of financial potential of economic entities in the agricultural sector. Environmental factors can have direct effects (inconsistencies in legislation, unforeseen actions of government agencies, unforeseen changes in foreign market conditions, unforeseen actions of competitors, corruption, development and implementation of modern technologies) and side effects (instability of economic, financial, tax, foreign economic policies, unforeseen changes in the economic situation in the region, in the industry, in the international situation, natural disasters). The internal environment is the conditions for the formation and realization of the financial potential of agricultural entities related to technical and technological factors of production, land ownership, provision of labor resources, staff qualifications, quality and price of finished products, organization of accounting, financial management, internal control. The study of the formation and implementation of financial potential in the unity of environmental characteristics and sources made it possible to establish that despite their independence and change over time with the acquisition of new quantitative and qualitative parameters, they depend on each other and represent financial potential as a whole. development.

Концепция циклической последовательности распространения базисных технологий в экономике и онтологическая обусловленность теорий индустриального общества

The authors formulate and substantiate the hypothesis on sequential dissemination of base-level technologies in such segments as communications, production and transportation. This conceptual approach explains retroactive dynamics of the global economic system and the current situation in the world economy. The article establishes the cyclic repetition of basic technologies of technological modes and of relevant regimes that regulate global economic relations. The authors forecast which sectors will serve as global economic drivers and what foreign economic policies will be pursued by global leaders in the next fifty years. The article substantiates objective ontological causality behind the formation of industrial and new industrial society theories.

Actions of countries actively participating in the global crude oil market in terms of the geopolitical changes in 2020

PURPOSE: The main purpose of this article is to present the activities of countries actively participating in the global crude oil market, which have a key impact on economic processes on a global scale. The actions of OPEC countries use crude oil as an instrument in the international economic policy to influence changes both in the global economy and the geopolitical dimension. It is important to identify and discuss the events that provided a benchmark for OPEC+ countries to take actions on the global oil market in 2020 to try to change the share of the global oil market in an geopolitical aspect. DESIGN/METHOD: The research methods used in this article are the critical literature analysis and numerical data analysis. In this study, the author presents the statement that resource-rich countries increasingly treat crude oil as a tool in the economic policy to influence changes in economic processes on a global scale in order to increase their competitive position, as well as to deliberately create the negative phenomena in a form of price wars that only serve to achieve the set goals in the economic policy of these countries. RESULTS/FINDINGS: The obtained research results-reveal that conscious creation of price wars, the occurrence of oil crises on the global oil market, or the possession of significant deposits of the raw material in question, are treated by the governments of countries worldwide as a tool in itself in order to conduct the economic policy of countries, taking into account the overarching aspect of the broad impact on the manner of conducting the international economic policy of countries on the global oil market. The world the oil market experienced several significant events that caused strong changes from the point of view of the development of the world economy. Decisions held within the framework of the OPEC (and OPEC+) organisation have a narrower impact on the global oil market, however, within a wider global economy they affect the global economic processes. In conjunction with the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy of OPEC+ organisation is affecting the geopolitical changes and the foreign economic policy of every country in the world. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The contribution to the development of the discipline is the presentation of the events and activities of countries actively participating in the global oil market in 2020, as an attempt to gain a competitive advantage and changes in the geopolitical aspect. KEYWORDS: oil crisis, OPEC, OPEC+, foreign economic policy, demand shock, supply shock. JEL: F13, F42, F6

ИМЭМО в первой половине 2000-х (Кадровые и организационные вопросы)

The article is dedicated to the events in IMEMO in the first half of the 2000s, associated with the activities of the Academician Nodari Simoniya, the new director of the Institute. In 2002, Simoniya added Gennadii Chufrin to his team as one of his deputy directors. In 2002, the editor-in-chief of the “World Economy and International Relations” journal was replaced. After the death of German Diligenskii, who had been heading the journal since 1988, the well-known political scientist Andrei Ryabov became the new editor-in-chief. He managed to preserve the best traditions laid down by his predecessor. The article also traces the main measures for the partial reorganization of the Institute’s structure, carried out by the Academician Simoniya in 2001–2006. The author reveals the substance of this reorganization aimed at concentrating the efforts of the IMEMO research team on the study of the most pressing and important problems of the contemporary world. One of the important decisions was the creation of the Center for Energy Problems headed by the Director of the Institute. The emergence of this research unit was the result of numerous requests received by the Institute from government agencies and economic structures, which wanted to have qualified expert assessments in this area. Therefore, it was decided to concentrate research on energy problems in one Center. Several previously existing research subdivisions also underwent reorganization: the Department of Developing Countries, which studied the Third world, was transformed into the Center for Development and Modernization Problems, where, among other things, Russia’s problems were addressed; the Department studying the internal political processes in Western countries was transformed into the Center for Socio-Economic and Socio-Political Studies of Western Countries and Russia. The Department of North American Studies, the Department of International Political Problems, the Department of Global Economic Problems and Foreign Economic Policy, and the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies were reorganized as well in order to actualize their studies. The measures for the partial reorganization of IMEMO were explained not only by considerations of research expediency, but also by the increasingly insistent demands of the government to reduce the number of employees of academic institutes in the system of the Russian Academy of Sciences. By the end of 2006, there was a slight decrease in the number of doctors of sciences at the Institute in comparison with 2001. This was largely due to objective reasons – retirement or death of senior researchers. But at the same time, there was a significant influx of young people into the postgraduate school. In general, the management of IMEMO succeeded in preserving human resources and academic potential of the Institute.

THE STATE OF FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINE IN THE CONSTITUTION OF INSTABILITY

The foreign economic activity of the country is determined to be a prior component of the national economy in the context of the functioning of the crisis phenomena caused by the war. The nature of foreign trade operations is investigated. The authors considered the structure of Ukrainian exports in the context of commodity groups. Examples of commodity groups are given, whose share in the structure of Ukrainian exports is one of the largest. The dynamics of the implementation of export and import operations over the past decade is analyzed. The factors of formation of a positive trade balance, namely the methods of tariff and non-tariff regulation in foreign economic policy, are substantiated. The problem of using a positive trade balance as an indicator of the good state of the state economy is identified, because some countries use this indicator as a tool to control inflation, and also have labor-intensive and non-environmental enterprises outside the country. A number of agreements that contribute to the intensification of Ukrainian activities have been studied.

Actions of countries actively participating in the global crude oil market in terms of the geopolitical changes in 2020

PURPOSE: The main purpose of this article is to present the activities of countries actively participating in the global crude oil market, which have a key impact on economic processes on a global scale. The actions of OPEC countries use crude oil as an instrument in the international economic policy to influence changes both in the global economy and the geopolitical dimension. It is important to identify and discuss the events that provided a benchmark for OPEC+ countries to take actions on the global oil market in 2020 to try to change the share of the global oil market in an geopolitical aspect. DESIGN/METHOD: The research methods used in this article are the critical literature analysis and numerical data analysis. In this study, the author presents the statement that resource-rich countries increasingly treat crude oil as a tool in the economic policy to influence changes in economic processes on a global scale in order to increase their competitive position, as well as to deliberately create the negative phenomena in a form of price wars that only serve to achieve the set goals in the economic policy of these countries. RESULTS/FINDINGS: The obtained research results-reveal that conscious creation of price wars, the occurrence of oil crises on the global oil market, or the possession of significant deposits of the raw material in question, are treated by the governments of countries worldwide as a tool in itself in order to conduct the economic policy of countries, taking into account the overarching aspect of the broad impact on the manner of conducting the international economic policy of countries on the global oil market. The world the oil market experienced several significant events that caused strong changes from the point of view of the development of the world economy. Decisions held within the framework of the OPEC (and OPEC+) organisation have a narrower impact on the global oil market, however, within a wider global economy they affect the global economic processes. In conjunction with the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy of OPEC+ organisation is affecting the geopolitical changes and the foreign economic policy of every country in the world. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The contribution to the development of the discipline is the presentation of the events and activities of countries actively participating in the global oil market in 2020, as an attempt to gain a competitive advantage and changes in the geopolitical aspect. KEYWORDS: oil crisis, OPEC, OPEC+, foreign economic policy, demand shock, supply shock. JEL: F13, F42, F6

Concept of cyclic sequence in the dissemination of base-level technologies in the economy and ontological causality of industrial society theories

The authors formulate and substantiate the hypothesis on sequential dissemination of base-level technologies in such segments as communications, production and transportation. This conceptual approach explains retroactive dynamics of the global economic system and the current situation in the world economy. The article establishes the cyclic repetition of basic technologies of technological modes and of relevant regimes that regulate global economic relations. The authors forecast which sectors will serve as global economic drivers and what foreign economic policies will be pursued by global leaders in the next fifty years. The article substantiates objective ontological causality behind the formation of industrial and new industrial society theories.

Концепция циклической последовательности распространения базисных технологий в экономике и онтологическая обусловленность теорий индустриального общества

The authors formulate and substantiate the hypothesis on sequential dissemination of base-level technologies in such segments as communications, production and transportation. This conceptual approach explains retroactive dynamics of the global economic system and the current situation in the world economy. The article establishes the cyclic repetition of basic technologies of technological modes and of relevant regimes that regulate global economic relations. The authors forecast which sectors will serve as global economic drivers and what foreign economic policies will be pursued by global leaders in the next fifty years. The article substantiates objective ontological causality behind the formation of industrial and new industrial society theories.

Дальний Восток России и Северо-Восточная Азия: конфигурации взаимодействия

The development of the Russian Far East region in the last decade was closely connected with the implementation of the program of Russia's integration into the Asia-Pacific region, the economic «advance to the East». In 2013–2021, a significant number of government, industry and regional programs were devoted to the implementation of these tasks. In the first quarter of 2022, this process was strongly corrected by a sharp change in international political relations, the division of countries - Russia's economic partners into groups that adhere to varying degrees of confrontational positions towards it. As a result, the participation of the Russian Federation in global economic interaction, and, accordingly, the processes of development of the national economy related to this, began to experience numerous additional risks and restrictions generated by the active sanctions creativity of the countries that received the classification “unfriendly”. This fundamentally complicated the potential opportunities for Russia's cross-border interactions; the ongoing changes in the external contour of the national economy have transformed the role and place of Russia in the international division of labor, and, accordingly, required the formation of a new foreign economic policy both for the current situation and for the medium and long term. Part of this process is the reformatting of international relations in Northeast Asia. On the one hand, it requires prompt changes in the organization of cross-border commodity and financial flows, their accelerated adaptation to new conditions. On the other hand, given the predicted long-term effect of the imposed (and, obviously, expected in the future) restrictions on Russia's international cooperation, a systemic restructuring of the economy of the Far East region is necessary. It will require a reassessment of a number of strategic positions in regional development, as well as the implementation of targeted production, social, infrastructural and institutional reforms.

Ранжирование приграничных регионов Российской Федерации

The article considers the specifics of border regions since these territories require attention not only in the framework of regional but also foreign economic policy. Existing inter-regional inequality results in the fact that the border regions of the Russian Federation differ significantly in terms of both the level of economic development and the degree of impact on regional economies. The article presents the author’s methodology for assessing the index of the border position of the regions of the Russian Federation and ranking the areas by their border position. The basis of the methodology is the works of Russian and foreign researchers on the regional economy, economicstatistical methods, geoinformation, and cartographic methods. The author has ranked the regions according to the obtained assessments. The analysis shows the need to form a conceptual approach to the study of border regions, considering them from the perspective of mutual conditionality of the border region of a given country, the shared state border, and the possibilities of cross-border interaction, based on the features of economic development of the border region of the neighboring state. The study results can be used to improve the general approaches to implementing regional policy concerning the border regions of the Russian Federation. The proposed methodology will increase the efficiency of econometric estimates for studying various relationships and factors describing the economies of border regions.

Changes in international development aid policy: from Trump to Biden

International development assistance is an integral part of the foreign economic and foreign policy activities of the US government. International aid is one of the largest components of US foreign relations spending and is regarded by many members of Congress as one of the most important foreign policy instruments. However, many US citizens and members of Congress feel that the US cannot afford such international aid spending, given the current budget deficit and competing budgetary priorities. As one of the largest donors of international development aid, the United States is of considerable interest to many researchers, including those who study trends in the polarization of attitudes toward foreign policy, including international aid. This article is devoted to the current US policy in the field of international development cooperation at the beginning of the presidency of Joe Biden. It examines the economic component of US government assistance: the total amount of US economic assistance, as well as the structure of international aid spending and country priorities for US economic assistance, are considered. An assessment of the prospects for US assistance is presented based on an analysis of the Joint Strategic Plan of the State Department and the Agency for International Assistance 2022-2026 and the US National Security Strategy 2022. Despite the stability and relative inertia of the international aid system, one can observe an increase in US interest in development assistance after the transition of power to President Biden, including in the context of competition with China.

Народнохозяйственная производственная функция России с учетом инфраструктуры в 1990-2020 гг.

In the period 1990-2020, the econometric methods were used to study the national economic production function of Russia, one of the arguments of which is the transport and communication infrastructure represented by the main funds of transport and communications. The results of the study indicate a continuing decline in the elasticity of Russia's GDP in transport and communication infrastructure in 2020 at a lower rate than in previous years. The dynamics of the marginal rate of technological substitution of production factors in 2009-2020 is researched. Among the main reasons for the decline in the elasticity of GDP for transport and communication infrastructure, the economic downturn and a decrease in the volume of capital investments in transport and communication industries were highlighted. It is noted that the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus in Russia has somewhat slowed down the rate of decline in the elasticity of GDP in infrastructure due to the sharply increased role of its communication component. For the successful implementation of the policy of advanced infrastructure development announced by the President of Russia, it is necessary not only to increase the volume of investments in infrastructure bottlenecks, but also to adopt an additional set of measures aimed at stimulating economic growth, among which, in the conditions of sharply increased foreign economic and foreign policy restrictions for Russia from our Western and overseas neighbors in 2022. it is possible to highlight the weakening of the centuries-old dependence of the Russian economy on raw materials and, as academician S.Yu. Glazyev, the transition of our country's economy to a new technological order.

ОСНОВНІ ФОРМИ МІЖНАРОДНОЇ ІНТЕГРАЦІЙНОЇ ВЗАЄМОДІЇ

The article deals with international integration and the main forms of interna-tional integration interaction.Integration and globalization are becoming increasingly important in economic development.At present, no state can exist in isolation from others without recourse to mutual coopera-tion. In the activities of any country there is foreign economic and foreign policy interaction withother countries.The presence of historically established and sufficiently strong economic ties between countries largely determines the expediency and possibility of integration. Common eco-nomic interests and problems that can be solved much more efficiently by joint efforts are also of great importance.Integration is usually understood as a process during which the growing economic inter-dependence of two or more countries develops into the merging of national markets for goods, services, capital and labor, and on this basis an integral market space is formed.Integration in a broad sense is the unification of some parts into a single whole. The con-cept of «integration», as well as the process of integration itself, appeared in scientific circulation at the end of the 19th – beginning of the 20th century. It is known that the term «integration» in translation from Latin means restoration, connection, replenishment, and integer –whole, whole. Therefore, integration means a process, as a result of which the unity and integrity of the system are formed on the basis of unification and convergence, i.e., obtaining a whole from any separate parts that complement each other, creating a qualitatively new formation.The relevance of the topic of the article is due to the fact that integration processes arebecoming an integral part of the growing globalization of the world economy. They represent a qualitatively new form of interstate interaction and have the ultimate goal of accelerating eco-nomic growth and increasing the competitiveness of countries participating in integration pro-cesses. International integration plays a significant role in all countries of the world. Participation in integration groups gives countries a number of significant advantages, namely: wider access to various resources, joint solution with other countries of complex socio-economic, scientific-technical, environmental and other problems.Integration promotes the development of new territorial markets, the creation of joint enter-prises in the developed territories, increasing the stability of national economies, the unification of suppliers and consumers, production and sales of products. Keywords: world and international economy, economy of foreign countries, forms of inter-national integration interaction.

Прагматичное взаимодействие Иркутской области и регионов стран Европейского Союза: опыт и реалии

The purpose of the study is to identify the features of interaction between the Irkutsk Oblast of the Russian Federation and the regions of the European Union states. On the basis of customs statistics, analysis of materials of regional mass media, analytical literature, the dynamics of cooperation at the subnational level is considered, macro-stages are identified. The influence of the processes of world politics on the international connections of the regions is analyzed. The activity of the governors of the Irkutsk Oblast - S.G. Levchenko and I.I. Kobzev on the European direction is highlighted. It is noted thatthe international activity of the regional government is becoming an element of the intraregional agenda and party struggle. It is concluded that the government and business of the Irkutsk Oblast saw international contacts with European partners as an additional image resource for the development of the region, and the European bureaucracy considered the possibility of implementing projects in a remote region of Siberia as a resource for increasing “normative efficiency”, spreading norms and values, expanding the sphere of influence. There is a negative impact of mutual sanctions policy, the dependence of regional authorities on the foreign economic policy of large vertically integrated holdings. The humanitarian vector of interaction between the Irkutsk Oblast and the regions of the European Union countries continues to be implemented, but without intensive development - the already established contacts through twin cities and university ties are mainly maintained.

The role of Russian border regions in the cross-border cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan

Relevance. In the attempt to withstand sanctions pressure and the continuing decline in the relationships with European states, the Russian government has switched the focus of its foreign economic policy to the south-eastern partners, including Kazakhstan. Research objective. The study aims to evaluate the readiness of the Russian border regions for more active cross-border cooperation with regions of Kazakhstan; to draw an inventory of the main forms such cooperation can take; and to describe the prospects of this cooperation in the context of the increasing integration processes in border regions. Data and methods. The article compares the dynamics of socio-economic indicators and qualitative characteristics of Russian border regions and summarizes the experience of cooperation between Russian and Kazakhstani border regions. The study relies on the methods of systems analysis and comparative analysis and uses the official data of regional Kazakhstani and Russian governments on the socio-economic development of their territories. The study also uses the statistical data provided by the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat). Results. The study has brought to light significant disparities in Russian border regions' socio-economic potential, more specifically, in their readiness to participate in the integration processes with regions of the neighbouring state. The proposed conceptual model of cross-border cooperation comprises three levels: transport communication, joint projects, and social services. This model underpins the typology of Russian border regions, highlighting the most promising areas for their cooperation with Kazakhstan and the main impediments to such cooperation. By applying this model, we have identified the main growth points and bottlenecks in interregional cooperation along the state border and described the key trends in the development of the given countries in the context of global risks. Conclusions. The cross-border cooperation model can provide a framework for the development of projects aimed at enhancing the productivity of the relationships between the two countries. These findings may be used to evaluate the readiness of border regions to establish productive, mutually beneficial relationships with regions of the neighbouring state. They may also be of interest to policy-makers, national and regional government agencies.

The United States’ Trade and Investment Strategy in George W. Bush’s Foreign Economic Policy

The United States’ Trade and Investment Strategy in George W. Bush’s Foreign Economic Policy

ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE’S FOREIGN TRADE WITH EU COUNTRIES

The article analyzes the peculiarities of Ukraine’s foreign trade with other countries, including the EU countries. The development of foreign trade is important for the analysis of the economic situation of the country, reflects the attitude of the world’s countries to domestic production. The trajectory of foreign trade development is determined. It forms reserves for increasing the level of international trade relations and increases the competitiveness of Ukrainian production. The dynamics of changes in the geographical and commodity structure of international trade in goods and services during 2018-2020 is given, the share of the European Union in foreign trade, which is a key trading partner of Ukraine, is determined. The main groups of goods and services exported and imported by Ukraine are studied. The main reasons for the decrease in foreign trade turnover are substantiated. In addition, it was established that the main partner countries of Ukraine in international trade are China, Poland, the United States, Germany and the EU countries. The important component of Ukraine’s foreign trade is international trade in agricultural products. The article presents statistical data on the commodity structure of agricultural exports with the EU countries. Ukraine’s relations in the field of trade in agricultural products became important after the signing of the Association between Ukraine and the EU, which ensures the irreversibility of Ukraine’s European integration and it is priority for socially important reforms. It is studied that in order to improve Ukraine's foreign economic trade with the European Union, it is necessary to implement measures to modernize key export-oriented sectors of the economy, improve cooperation with other countries, pursue effective foreign economic policy, and strengthen the position of domestic manufacturers in foreign markets of goods and services. It is noted that cooperation with the European Union is one of the main priorities of Ukraine’s foreign economic policy. The article presents ways to improve Ukraine’s foreign trade and directions of improvement of foreign trade activity.