The paper endeavour to explore the short run and long run causal relationship between select macroeconomic variables (GDP, Exchange Rate & Inflation Rate) and FDI inflows in Indian context by applying Cointegration test followed by Vector autoregression (restricted/unrestricted) model and Granger- causality test. Further, by employing simple regression model, it tries to calculate the exponential growth rate of FDI inflows in India. Eventually, Chow test has been employed to detect the presence of significant structural break in the data series of FDI inflows. However, the results show that there prevails long run equilibrium among the concerned variables. The Granger-causality test results conclude that exchange rate and GDP statistically significantly influence FDI, whereas, inflation rate is insignificant variable to predict FDI inflows. Further, the growth analysis result claims that the total FDI inflows grow exponentially at a rate of 23% per annum. However, as stated by the results of Chow test, 1991-92 (the year of initiation of New Economic Policy in India) is a statistically significant structural break year in the context of FDI inflows in India. Keywords: FDI, New economic policy, Unit root test, Cointegration test, Vector error correction model, Granger-causality test, Structural break, Chow test. I. Introduction Foreign direct investment (FDI) can be termed as package of resources that complements the financial flows and makes a distinctive contribution to the development process. Foreign direct investment projects typically involve a transfer of technology and managerial skills from the source country to the recipient country and also provide greater access to world market for the recipient country's exports. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is fund flow between the countries in the form of inflow or outflow by which one can able to gain some benefit from their investment whereas another can exploit the opportunity to enhance the productivity and find out better position through investment with the purpose of long term then it is contributes positively towards economy. Depending on the industry sector and type of business, a foreign direct investment may be an attractive and viable option. The studies try to find out the implications which affect the economic scenario and also measure the level of predominance by the factors for economic contribution to India. 1.1 Evaluation of India's FDI Policy Measures The liberal policy measures towards FDI designed in the wake of structural adjustment and macroeconomic reforms in India since mid 1991 have helped attract foreign investors significantly. The amount of approved investment has grown enormously. Though the actual inflow of FDI has not picked up so fast, it has improved and significantly strengthened the capital account of the balance of payments of the country. India is still on a lower ladder among some major FDI receiving countries of Asia. Nevertheless, only six or seven countries claim well over one half of the total FDI flows. With the opening up of new areas for foreign investors, a huge amount of approval and actual inflow is also found in non-traditional areas, such as fuel and power, services and some consumer goods. Though the automatic approval route was introduced for speedier clearance of FDI proposals, its reach and role have been marginal. The policy lacked thrust on attracting investment in sectors that offered comparative cost advantage. Well-developed and strategically located platforms in the form of Export Processing Zones (EPZs) or technology parks have not been provided for mobilizing investment into these sectors. The thrust was not on export orientation due to conservative sector-specific policies. Rigid labour laws had been other serious impediments to FDI inflows. Besides, there was lack of transparency and clarity about micro-level procedure at the state level. To sum up, it can be said that the Indian Government has created a healthy atmosphere for FDI inflow by introducing Structural adjustment and Stabilization policy.
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