Forecast Of Economic Development Research Articles

Analysis and Forecasting the Price of the S&P 500 Index Using the Arima Model

The results of the research allowed to determine that the chosen S&P 500 index can serve as a reflection of the state and forecasts of economic development of the United States. A successful forecast of the index can serve not only as a key point in building an individual investment strategy, but also as an indicator of the general state of the economy. The mathematical model for predicting the dynamics of the index was built. Through exploratory data analysis, a better understanding of the time series and its characteristics was obtained. The application of various statistical methods, such as moving statistics and stationarity tests, made it possible to identify trends and seasonality in the data. Seasonal decomposition and logarithmic transformation helped to better understand the contribution of each component to the overall index dynamics, and special attention was paid to the stationary ADF test, where was considered not only the code but also the significant formulas. The optimal selection of parameters was done automatically. ARIMA model showed good results – the evaluation of the model accuracy included the comparison of the predicted values with the actual values of the SP500 index, both visually and using several metrics – MAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE. The result of the work is a model for predicting the dynamics of the S & P 500 index, implemented using the Python programming language with a MAPE of about 1.9%, the accuracy of the model is 98.1%. and such good results indicate the possibility of using this tool by market participants in real conditions.

МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ В УКРАЇНІ НА ОСНОВІ ПОВЕДІНКОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

The article examines the problems of macroeconomic modeling in Ukraine in the context of the application of functional approaches of behavioral economics. At the same time, behavioral economics is defined as a new direction aimed at researching rational and irrational aspects of economic decision-making in the field of macroeconomic regulation and their impact on economic phenomena. The method of taking into account these aspects in macroeconomic models to ensure a better understanding of economic processes in Ukraine is analyzed. A methodological approach to modeling based on the theory of behavioral economics is considered. An analysis of the key elements that influence the decision-making process in the conditions of a market economy, as well as the peculiarities of their interaction with traditional macroeconomic factors, was carried out. The importance of taking into account individual psychology, social networks and other modern functional factors that can influence the economic decisions of the population and business entities is determined. The possibility of applying behavioral economic concepts to develop more accurate forecasts of economic development, in particular, to improve state economic policy, has been studied. It was determined that taking into account the irrational aspects of making economic management decisions can help to avoid their negative consequences and increase the overall level of stability of the national economy of Ukraine. The current state of macroeconomic modeling in Ukraine is analyzed and its main challenges are highlighted. On the basis of taking into account the specific features of the Ukrainian economy, the need to consider models that would take into account transformational processes adapted to the real conditions and features of economic activity in Ukraine was determined. It has been found that the implementation of behavioral aspects in macroeconomic strategies can contribute to reducing instability, improving forecasts and generally increasing the level of trust of participants in economic relations. The objective necessity of integrating behavioral aspects into modern macroeconomic models has been proven in order to achieve a more accurate and deeper understanding of economic processes in Ukraine, as well as to ensure effective management of the country’s economic development in the context of its post-war reconstruction.

ANALYSIS OF THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO IMPROVING THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF UKRAINE

The article summarizes scientific and methodological principles of strategic planning of socio-economic development at the regional level in Ukraine. The main goal of strategic planning of regional development is determined and the main stages of developing a system of regional economic development forecasts are considered. The process of developing a strategic plan for socio-economic development of the region is analyzed, and the factors influencing the process of developing this strategy are also considered. The purpose of the article is the formation of theoretical and methodological foundations of strategic planning of regional development based on the analysis and theoretical generalization of methodological tools on the problem of research, development practice and the content of regional development strategies in Ukraine.
 Methodological foundations and legal basis of strategic planning are revealed both in the research of scientists and in the works and documents of Ukrainian and international experts. In the theory of strategic planning, general characteristics and tools for the implementation of this process are determined at various levels: the national level, individual territorial administrative units, and enterprises. Among the latest publications on the issues of this research, monographs by V. Vartsaba, N. Smentin, and scientific articles by O. Shevchenko, S. Ivanov, A. Chernykhivska, and others should be noted.
 International experience and practical foundations of strategic planning of regional development are outlined in the latest publications of the UN Development Program, as well as confirmed by experts of international projects and programs to promote local development in Ukraine.
 Practical implications: The author has justified the need to include budgeting in the system of methods of strategic economic analysis and developed an algorithm for methodical economic analysis of the activity of a commercial organization.
 Originality: As a result of using the methodological foundations of strategic economic analysis, a scheme of correspondence of methods to the stages of its organization has been developed.
 Conclusions: The author has highlighted traditional (statistical), economic-mathematical and special techniques in the system of methods of strategic economic analysis, emphasized the relevance of the toolkit of strategic economic analysis for a commercial organization operating in modern economic conditions, and also emphasized the prospects for development in the field of improvement and expansion of the methodological base of this direction.
 The quality of strategic planning of the socio-economic development of the region largely depends on the scientific and methodological support of this process. To ensure the expediency of strategic planning and to achieve a cumulative positive effect from the implementation of the developed strategy, it is necessary to combine the efforts of the management and administrative- financial, production and scientific-technical spheres, to involve the fullness and optimization of the natural, human, scientific-technological and innovative potential of the region. The main tasks and priorities of regional development at the current stage are overcoming crisis phenomena in socio-economic fields and increasing the pace of economic recovery.

Economic and Sustainable Development in Eastern Crete Through the Lithines Irrigation Dam

Eastern Crete faces the greatest deficit of water resources in Crete due to the arid climate and reduced rainfall. Despite the magnitude of the problem, to date no reservoir has been constructed that will change the environmental image of the area while simultaneously changing the opportunities through sustainable development. Instead, water resources are derived from deep wells (55m -475m) with huge energy costs at a time when energy is expensive. The study examines and presents: a) the economic cost of water resources in the area due to the drilling, b) the study for the Lithines reservoir, with a total volume of 9.5 million cubic meters of water and the expected economic profit that will accrue through hydroelectric production of water intended for irrigation, c) The quality of water that is currently lost to the sea, d) the sustainable development deficit faced by the region in relation to the neighbouring regions of the municipalities of Ierapetra and Agios Nikolaos and e) The forecast of economic development in the region in agriculture and tourism sector through the increase of water resources.

Тенденції розвитку зовнішньої торгівлі України сировинними товарами та її наслідки для економіки країни та світу

The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is built upon the works of domestic and foreign scholars. The results were obtained through the application of a system of research methods. Specifically, methods of grouping, classification, and quantitative comparisons were used to examine the commodity and geographical structure of Ukraine's exports. Structural and economic-statistical analysis methods were employed to evaluate the main financial indicators of Ukraine's external trade in raw materials, and a graphical method was used to visually represent the obtained research results. The article is dedicated to a detailed study of Ukraine's external trade relations. It studies the state of the country's external trade in raw materials, with a thorough examination of the dynamics of Ukraine's export and import operations in the raw material sector. The structure of Ukraine's exports and imports is analyzed using statistical methods. The impact of Ukraine's external trade on the economy of country and the world as a whole are discussed. Raw materials are commodities without added value, making their sale less beneficial for the country compared to the sale of finished products derived from raw materials. As a result, the country's economy develops at a slower pace. Therefore, the issues raised in the study are discussed, and a strategy for the development of Ukraine's external trade is proposed. The prospects for the further development of Ukraine's external trade in raw materials are identified. Research on the trends in Ukraine's external trade in raw materials enables the forecasting of economic development and the formulation of directions for the country's external trade.

The Impact of Brexit on UK Economic Development in Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

Changes in the UK economy have a significant impact on global economic developments. Accurate analysis and forecast of the impact of the recent Brexit are important for predicting the future development of the global economy. In this paper, two perspectives, trade and FDI, are selected to make a review of the forecast of economic development in the UK.

Implementation of the socio-economic development strategy of the Russian Federation constituent entity: Performance assessment

Subject. This article discusses the issues of long-term forecasting of economic development at the regional level. Objectives. The article aims to develop formulas for determining the quality of implementation of the strategy of socio-economic development of the region and the scorecard. Methods. For the study, we used analytical and expert assessment methods. Results. The article offers a substantiated methodological approach to conducting a unified assessment of the implementation of the socio-economic development strategy of the Russian Federation subject. Relevance. The proposed methodology can be used by executive authorities to manage the area's development.

Prediction Algorithm of Digital Economy Development Trend Based on Big Data

With the development of economic globalization, people have higher requirements for economic analysis and prediction, while the prediction accuracy of the traditional economic analysis and prediction model is quite low. Therefore, with the adaptation of the times, the “big data and artificial intelligence” technology is presented for researchers and data analysts. Based on the “big data and artificial intelligence” technology, economic analysis and prediction have unique advantages in many aspects. This study analyses the impact of “big data and artificial intelligence” technology on economic analysis and prediction. Based on the mean square error criterion, the variable selection method for constructing the interval data model is given. The interval financial time-series data of stock market, fund market, futures market, and money market are used to predict and analyze the macroeconomy, and the macroeconomic interval prediction method is given, which is different from the traditional point data model. The empirical results show that the Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai fund index, futures market transaction amount, and narrow money supply in the interval financial data have little fitting error to the macroeconomic interval prediction model. Through the first mock examination, we get the macroeconomic forecasting model based on interval financial time-series data. We also use the single model structure and the combined model structure to give the macroeconomic change interval of 2020–2023 years in China. The experimental research results show that the proposed model has good performance in the prediction of economic development trends and that it can be used for forecasting subsequent economic development forecasts.

ПРОБЛЕМЫ ТРУДОВЫХ РЕСУРСОВ: ДЕФИЦИТ, СДВИГИ В СТРУКТУРЕ, ПАРАДОКСЫ СТАРЕНИЯ

The subject of the study is the state and trends in the structure and number of labor resources in modern Russia. The paper aims to analyze the main trends in the development of labor resources based on an assessment of their reproduction and taking into account global trends. The relevance of the study is due to the growing importance of studying the structure and dynamics of the number of labor resources and the urgent need to change methodological approaches to the organization of statistical observations in this area. The scientific novelty consists in the proven eclecticism of the existing accounting system, which in some cases leads to distortion of the results of labor force surveys; the reasoning is based on a generalization of various sources of statistical information that formed the empirical basis of the study. The system classification of various categories of the population proposed by the authors as the basis of labor resources can become the basis for updating the methodology for conducting such surveys. The authors use the following research methods: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, systematization, and modeling. In the course of the study, the authors obtained the following results. Promising strategic directions for regulating labor resources have been outlined to support positive transformations in the labor market. The study revealed the contradiction between the need to expand the country's labor resources at the expense of older people who retain their ability to work, and the lack of conditions for the use of their labor. The study shows that it is necessary to consider the impact of such a significant and so far little taken into account factor as the coronavirus pandemic on labor resources. The authors substantiate the most pressing problems of the formation and use of labor resources in modern Russia. It is argued that there has been a decrease in the importance of the indicator of labor resources in the analysis and forecasting of economic development, it is difficult to track its structure and dynamics, to identify sources of growth. The reduction in the number and deterioration of the qualitative structure of labor resources occurs against the background of an increase in the economically inactive part of the population. There is a growing discrepancy between the professional and qualification structure of labor resources and the new needs of the labor market. There is a growing threat of underutilization of the available labor force with a constant shortage of personnel. The study showed that one of the most acute problems of the Russian labor market is the aging of labor resources. The necessity of returning the category and indicator of labor resources to a full-fledged high role in ensuring the development of the modern economy is proved. The dominant directions of prospective studies of labor resources are determined. The authors come to the conclusion that it is necessary to make changes to the methodology and tools of statistical surveys of the labor resources, aimed, among other things, at providing statistical opportunities for accounting and analyzing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the structure and dynamics of the labor resources.

Болевые точки Пекина – 3 (Смена экономической модели и внешнеполитические риски)

The consequences of COVID 19, both inside and outside China, especially in the countries – major importers of Chinese products, have negatively impacted the Chinese economy. These negative socio-economic consequences forced Beijing to accelerate the transition to a relatively new economic development model, which was marked in the early 2000s. The main component of this model is the expansion of domestic consumption and, accordingly, a further increase of the contribution of this indicator to the Chinese GDP itself and of its growth rate. However, this does not mean that China will abandon economic expansion and the implementation of its foreign economic and initiatives. Their importance as structural parts of the new economic model will continue and even grow. The acceleration of the transition to the dominance of domestic consumption in economic development is additionally conditioned by the foreign policy deadlock in which China found itself at the end of 2020. Despite the world’s fastest economic recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic, China has been unable to take advantage of this advantage effectively. Chinese “mask” diplomacy did not bring the desired results for Beijing – the PRC was not able to raise the leader’s torch temporarily lost by the United States. On the contrary, under the influence of Western propaganda, the contradiction in the perception of China as “our own” in the market sphere and “an alien” in the sphere of ideology has intensified. At the same time, due to increased competition in high-tech markets, in particular, 5G communication technologies, the ideological “alienation” of China is beginning to be used by Western countries in market wars in their favor. The forecast of economic development both by international and Chinese experts assumes the growth rate of China’s GDP in 2021 will be in the range of 6–8%. In our opinion, this is an overly optimistic estimate, and the corresponding figure will probably be 5–6%. The PRC is entering the 14th Five-Year Plan amid greater uncertainty: the prospects for the recovery of the world economy as a whole and, in particular, of the main Chinese trading partners, are not clear; limited instability is possible due to the accelerated change in the model of economic development; the volume of Chinese GDP has reached more than 15 trillion USD, therefore, each percent of its growth has become significantly “heavier” and more difficult to achieve. At the same time, the primacy in economic recovery and the continued potential for the expansion of the Chinese middle class bring positive contribution to the economic prospects of the PRC.

Economic Development Trend Prediction Model Based on Unsupervised Learning in the Internet of Things Environment

In order to explore the economic development trend under the environment of the Internet of Things, this paper improves the chaotic algorithm of the Internet of Things and constructs an economic development trend analysis system based on big data technology. Moreover, this paper analyzes the actual situation of big data processing data and conducts research on economic data analysis process. In addition, this paper conducts effective research on the various modules of functional analysis, obtains the system functional architecture, constructs the system functional structure based on the actual situation, and analyzes the operating process of the system. Finally, this paper designs a simulation test based on actual data. The experimental research results show that the system model proposed in this paper has a good performance in the forecast of economic development trends, and the system can be used for forecasting in subsequent economic development forecasts.

The System Paradigm and the Prospects for “Institutional Synthesis” in Economic Theory

The constant adaptation of economic theory to changing practice at certain stages requires a theoretical synthesis, during which various (sometimes competing) research programs are combined in order to develop a more adequate methodology. In orthodox economic theory the two most important syntheses were: the neoclassical synthesis of the 1940–1960s and the new neoclassical synthesis of the 1990s. Both were intradisciplinary in nature. However, the developed toolkit of neoclassical orthodoxy still does not allow the study of the “risks of the system as a whole” and making confident long-term forecasts of economic development. This current situation determines the relevance of research within the framework of the system paradigm, with the help of which such problems can be solved. This paper discusses the characteristics of the system paradigm and analyzes why this paradigm is poorly represented in neoclassical orthodoxy. The paper considers barriers to the spread of the system paradigm, associated with the worldview of modern economists-theoreticians The paper also analyses the methodological prerequisites of neoclassical orthodoxy, the specifics of which also act as a barrier to the development of the system paradigm in economic research. This paper outlines, for the first time, the general shape of the interdisciplinary institutional synthesis, the formation of which has been observed in Russia since the beginning of the 2010s. Its distinctive features are as follows. First, it develops outside economic orthodoxy, in the course of research cooperation between heterodox economists and representatives of social, humanitarian and natural disciplines – that is, it is an interdisciplinary (polydisciplinary) synthesis. Second, the main subject of research within its framework are institutions or, more broadly, meso-level structures that ensure the integrity, reproduction, and development of socio-economic systems. Third, the methodological basis of interdisciplinary cooperation within the framework of the institutional synthesis is provided by a system paradigm and holistic approach which are different from the neoclassical orthodoxy. Some examples of the institutional synthesis presented in Russian economic literature and its practical results are shown. The prospects for the further development of the theoretical interdisciplinary institutional synthesis are outlined.

Competition Policy as a Strategic Determinant of Economic Development in the Post-pandemic Period: Management and Legal Aspects

The state and tendencies of COVID-19 influence on the economic situation in the world are studied and the socio-economic losses suffered by the world economy during the pandemic are analyzed. The entire world community, starting in mid-December 2019, has come under the enormous influence of the World Coronavirus Epidemic, called COVID-19. The pandemic caused by this virus has already caused thousands of casualties around the world, imposed significant restrictions on the socio-cultural life of the population and radically changed the trends of the global economy. Today, it is difficult to predict what final human casualties and economic losses will be suffered by states in the short, medium and long term. However, it is important to consider individual economic development forecasts and measures selected by the governments of the world's leading countries to overcome the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This will allow to form a real vision of the possible course of economic processes that will directly affect the level of socio-cultural life of the population.and the real measures taken to stabilize the financial and economic situation at the micro and macro levels.

Prospects for the formation of effective ecological and economic systems of water usage

The article deals with defining the essence, methods and techniques of the research of ecological and economic problems of water usage, assessments of water and resource potential as to the region. The subject of this study is the environmental and economic problems of water supply. The object that is determined in the article is the water resource and eco-economic potential of Volyn region. The purpose of the study is the ecological and economic assessment the prospects of water supply, socio-economic development of the region. In accordance with the purpose, the following tasks are set and solved in the study: analyzing current state of ecological and economic water supply of the region; taking into account the water factor in the forecasts of economic development of the region; solving the ways of eco-economic problems of water supply to the territories. Modern problems such as rational usage, protection and reproduction of water resources are considered. Changes in the ecological and economic systems of water usage in the Volyn region in the market conditions are analyzed. The issue of protection, complex usage and restoration the balance of environment is considered. It is the leading point in the ecological, economic, political and social life not only of peculiar countries, but also of the entire continents. Under the influence of economic activity, natural landscapes are changed. Progressive pollution of human habitat has led to a deterioration in quality of life, negatively affected demographic characteristics. The ecological aspect of VGK development provides a set of measures to ensure the protection of water resources and rational usage of water; increasing safety when it comes to usage of chemicals; solving the problem of waste. Based on results of the conducted research we can conclude that, the great importance of water resources in the development of the national economy not only of Volyn region, but the country as a whole is extremely important. The problem of balanced environmentally safe water usage and dynamic development of the water complex of Ukraine is critical. The nature and types of usage of natural waters are highly diverse and multifaceted. Water is used almost in all areas of the economy and aspects of human life. The extreme importance of such natural resource as a water and its transformation into a factor determining the development of society, resulted to the problem of rational use and protection of the aquatic environment. The main directions of solving ecological and economic problems of water supply of the territories are offered.

A comprehensive investigation of energy management practices within energy intensive industries in Bangladesh

Industrial energy efficiency is acknowledged as a cost-effective mean contributing to sustainable development and industrial competitiveness. Implementing energy management practices becomes even more imperative for developing countries, considering their energy usage trends and economic development forecasts. Based on the circumstances, an empirical investigation is conducted on energy efficiency and management practices, as well as barriers and drivers to energy efficiency in the energy-intensive industries of Bangladesh. The study finds that majority of the companies barely implement the energy management practices. Energy audits represent the mostly implemented energy management practice at the industries, though a comprehensive approach on a detailed level is still lacking. In addition, this study finds that the number of dedicated and specialised energy professionals employed in the industries is yet negligible. The cumulated results show that energy efficiency is mostly disrupted due to inadequate support from preeminent administration and bureaucratic intricacy. Energy blueprint cost-saving due to less use of energy and rules and regulations were distinctively signified as most imperative drivers for energy efficiency. On the other hand, lack of information is found to be the most significant barrier to consult energy service companies. Analysis of the country's energy usage and supply-demand relationship points towards insufficient energy efficiency measures and energy management practices in the country. The study also finds that energy efficiency could be improved by 8%–10% through the practice of energy management. Our findings, besides pointing out specific issues to be tackled in the specific context of investigation, pave the way for further research over industrial energy efficiency in developing countries.

THE STATE OF SMALL BUSINESS IN THE VOLOGDA REGION DURING THE PANDEMIC PERIOD: PROBLEMS AND INSTRUMENTS OF STATE SUPPORT

Forecasts of economic development in the context of coronavirus infection contain frightening statements about the difficulties of functioning of entire industries, bankruptcy of enterprises and a long way out of the current crisis. There is a widespread point of view that small businesses will face the greatest difficulties in overcoming the crisis after a pandemic. In this regard, the purpose of this work is to analyze entrepreneurial activity in the context of a pandemic to develop recommendations for government and government bodies aimed at improving the situation in the business community. The article, based on a sociological survey of the heads of small enterprises in the Vologda region, operating in a pandemic, presents an analysis of the state of business in the context of the coronavirus, the availability of state support measures in this period. The key problems associated with limiting the receipt of this support in the Vologda Oblast were identified. In conclusion, the authors proposed directions for improving a number of anti-crisis measures. The results obtained in the course of the study contribute to the development and systematization of the theoretical basis of the problem under consideration. The practical significance of the work is associated with the possibility of using the obtained research results by researchers, graduate students, undergraduates, bachelors dealing with the problems of entrepreneurial activity development.

ECONOMIC PROCESSES OF INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL INITIATIVE

In the article the author views economic and managerial issues of development of innovative activities of industrial enterprises based on the implementation of economic processes of the National technological initiative; presents the parameters of NTI implementation; shows that the effectiveness of innovative development of industry determines the creation of future markets, allowing enterprises to shape the image of the future of industry, to carry out a continuous and complex innovation process, the production of innovations, their commercialization and market demand. The author substantiates the relevance of implementing the processes of innovative development of the industrial complex of the region on the basis of NTI, which consists in the fact that the creation of innovations and their commercialization allowed enterprises to have a leading position among similar manufacturers, creating products with a high level of knowledge intensity, thereby forming new technological markets. NTI stimulates the development of new markets, determining the forecast of economic development. Innovative development of the region's industrial complex on the basis of NTI involves the creation of an integration grouping of the industrial sector on the basis of the innovation ecosystem. The most significant result of the research is the development of a model and an algorithm for evaluating the innovative ecosystem of the industrial complex of the region based on NTI. The model reflects that the development of STI projects is carried out through the innovation support infrastructure. In order to implement innovative STI projects, a regional ecosystem of innovation support is being created on the basis of industrial clusters. The main importance in the ecosystem is the network connections of participants in innovative processes and their technological capabilities (points of technological growth). In the article it is shown that the strategy for implementing STI to create new markets and technologies is based on the innovative activity of industrial complexes. In the model of the proposed ecosystem of innovative support for the industrial complex of the region based on NTI, an algorithm for evaluating the effectiveness of its functioning has been developed.

Детінізація економіки в контексті подолання кризових явищ, зумовлених пандемією COVID-19

A critical analysis of the dynamics of forecasted values of gross domestic product (GDP) in Ukraine and in the world under uncertainty. It should be noted that the depth of the economic downturn will depend on many factors, such as: the development of a pandemic, the duration and intensity of restrictive measures, negative changes in economic processes, fluctuations in the financial market, changes in human behavior. The adjusted forecasts of economic development of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for changes in the gross domestic product of the world's leading countries as a result of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus at an exponential rate. A comparison of economic development forecasts for 2020–2021 for Ukraine is provided on the basis of published reports of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine. It is established that in the conditions of aggravation of crisis situation the share of shadow processes in economy grows and there is a necessity of change of tools and methods of the state management of shadow economy as a structural component of state security, improvement of the mechanism of de-shadowing policy. The internal and external risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic are highlighted. In the context of the study, the shadow economy is considered in the system of state security and is interpreted as a socio-economic phenomenon, which is characterized by uncontrolled and unregulated, informal and illegal economic relations that threaten national security and cause economic, social and environmental damage to the state and society. Measures to overcome the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and de-shadow the economy are suggested.

Transport infrastructure development financing problems and main investment trends in 2020

Background: The realisation of large-scale plans of Russian infrastructure development, transport in particular, requires a corresponding methodological guidance for both planning of realisation of these tasks and development of the proper financing instrumentarium.
 Aim: The analysis of reasons for incompliance of programme tasks with their financing conditions; formalisation of investment trends in todays economy and description of their capability to adapt to Russian projects.
 Methods: The method of rising from concrete to abstract and vice versa has allowed identification of important regularities of investment trends and their connection with the quality of projects; the systems principle has confirmed dependence of successful realisation of infrastructure projects on reliability of economic development forecasts and adequacy of projects financing and management.
 Results: The analysis of ongoing changes of state priorities and programmes, outlined in a large number of documents regulating development of transport infrastructure in Russia, has allowed identification of influence of most significant regularities, which determine effectiveness of these solutions. All available transport infrastructure project financing sources have been systemised, considering investment volume and their status in the market. The statement that it is exactly the loan-based financing sources, concession in the first instance, that can be the most efficient in infrastructure projects realisation, has been confirmed.

Innovative development of the fuel and energy complex in the eastern regions of Russia

The most important direction of the current stage of Russia’s development is the growth of its energy efficiency associated with the transition to innovative energy. The use of innovative technologies is an important factor influencing long-term forecasts of economic development and the fuel and energy complex (FEC), which necessitates the development of new approaches to justify the forecasts of the FEC development in Russia and its regions. Innovative development of the FEC will increase energy efficiency of the economy and improve the environment as fuel consumption will be reduced and emissions of harmful substances into the environment will be reduced. Solving this problem is important for Eastern regions, which are the most environmentally disadvantaged economic regions of Russia. This has determined the relevance of the study. The goal of the study is to determine the impact of innovative development of the fuel and energy complex on the economy of Eastern regions. Methods of research - system analysis, balance sheet, statistical methods. The authors developed a method to assess the impact of innovative development of the fuel and energy complex on the economy of the regions, created a model and computer tools.