Water Level Forecasts Research Articles

Метод долгосрочного прогноза максимального уровня воды р. Исеть на основе глубокого обучения

Numerical analysis of using deep learning in the development of long-term method of maximum water level forecast for several gauging stations of the Iset (Kataysk, Shadrinsk, Mekhonskoe) has been carried out. The possibilities of implementing two architectures of neural network model within the framework of using the same set of initial hydrometeorological observation data have been analysed in detail. It is shown that the transition to the new N-HiTS architecture allows increasing the correctness of the forecast on the validation sample in comparison with the previously used TFT architecture. Using cross-validation we obtained estimates of the classical statistical criterion of correctness of the developed method confirming the possibility of its use in operational practice for all three analysed gauging stations. Within the framework of the developed forecasting method the analysis of groundwater level observation data at groundwater wells of the Rosnedra system was carried out. It is shown that in a number of cases using such observation data allows significantly improve the correctness of forecast.

Water Level Forecasting Combining Machine Learning and Ensemble Kalman Filtering in the Danshui River System, Taiwan

Taiwan faces intense rainfall during typhoon seasons, leading to rapid increases in water level in rivers. Accurate flood forecasting in rivers is essential for protecting lives and property. The objective of this study is to develop a river flood forecasting model combining multiple additive regression trees (MART) and ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF). MART, a machine learning technique, predicts water levels for internal boundary conditions, correcting a one-dimensional (1D) unsteady flow model. EnKF further refines these predictions, enabling precise real-time forecasts of water levels in the Danshui River system for up to three hours lead time. The model was calibrated and validated using observed data from four historical typhoons to evaluate its accuracy. For the present time at three water level stations in the Danshui River system, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.088 to 0.343 m, while the coefficient of determination (R2) ranged from 0.954 to 0.999. The validated model (module 1) was divided into two additional modules: module 2, which combined the ensemble unsteady flow model with inner boundary correction and MART, and module 3, which featured an ensemble 1D unsteady flow model without inner boundary correction. These modules were employed to forecast water levels at three stations from the present time to 3 h lead time during Typhoon Muifa in 2022. The study revealed that the Tu-Ti-Kung-Pi station was less affected by inner boundaries due to significant tidal influences. Consequently, excluding the upstream and downstream boundaries, Tu-Ti-Kung-Pi station showed a superior RMSE trend from present time to 3 h lead time across all three modules. Conversely, the Taipei Bridge and Bailing Bridge stations began using inner boundary forecast values for correction from 1 h to 3 h lead times. This increased the uncertainty of the inner boundary, resulting in higher RMSE values for these locations in modules 1 and 2 compared to module 3.

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

AbstractThis study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser‐resolution (12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density‐driven terms within a global, higher‐resolution (2.5 km) depth‐averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30‐day sea levels, and non‐tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density‐driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Forecasting Gate-Front Water Levels Using a Coupled GRU–TCN–Transformer Model and Permutation Entropy Algorithm

Water level forecasting has significant impacts on transportation, agriculture, and flood control measures. Accurate water level values can enhance the safety and efficiency of water conservancy hub operation scheduling, reduce flood risks, and are essential for ensuring sustainable regional development. Addressing the nonlinearity and non-stationarity characteristics of gate-front water level sequences, this paper introduces a gate-front water level forecasting method based on a GRU–TCN–Transformer coupled model and permutation entropy (PE) algorithm. Firstly, an analysis method combining Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) is used to separate the original water level data into different frequency modal components. The PE algorithm subsequently divides each modal component into sequences of high and low frequencies. The GRU model is applied to predict the high-frequency sequence part, while the TCN–Transformer combination model is used for the low-frequency sequence part. The forecasting from both models are combined to obtain the final water level forecasting value. Multiple evaluation metrics are used to assess the forecasting performance. The findings indicate that the combined GRU–TCN–Transformer model achieves a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0154, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0205, and a Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.8076. These metrics indicate that the model outperforms machine learning Support Vector Machine (SVM) models, GRU models, Transformer models, and TCN–Transformer combination models in forecasting performance. The forecasting results have high credibility. This model provides a new reference for improving the accuracy of gate-front water level forecasting and offers significant insights for water resource management and flood prevention, demonstrating promising application prospects.

Multi-Step Ahead Water Level Forecasting Using Deep Neural Networks

Stream gauge height (water level) is a significant indicator for forecasting future floods. Flooding occurs when the water level exceeds the flood stage. Predicting imminent floods can save lives, protect infrastructure, and improve road traffic management and transportation. Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in this domain due to their predictive capabilities in capturing complex features and interdependencies. This study employs four distinct models—Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), transformer, and LSTNet—with MLP serving as the baseline model to forecast water levels. The models are trained using data from 20 distinct river gages across the state of Missouri to ensure consistent performance. Random search optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning. The prediction intervals are set at 4, 6, 8, and 10 (each interval equivalent to 30 min) to ensure that performance results are robust and not due to random weight initialization or suboptimal hyperparameters and are consistent throughout different prediction intervals. The findings of this study indicate that the LSTNet model leads to a better performance than the other models, with a median RMSE of 0.00724, 0.00959, 0.01204, and 0.01230 for the 4, 6, 8, and 10 intervals, respectively. As climate change leads to localized storms driven by atmospheric shifts, water level fluctuations are becoming increasingly extreme, further exacerbating data drift in real-world datasets. The LSTNet model demonstrates superior performance in terms of RMSE, MAE, and the correlation coefficient across all prediction intervals when forecasting water levels under data drift conditions.

High Water Level Forecast Under the Effect of the Northeast Monsoon During Spring Tides

One of the manifests of air-sea interactions is the change in sea level due to meteorological forcing through wind stress and atmospheric pressure. When meteorological conditions conducive to water level increase coincide with high tides during spring tides, the sea level may rise higher than expected and pose a flood risk to coastal low-lying areas. In Hong Kong, specifically when the northeast monsoon coincides with the higher spring tides in late autumn and winter, and sometimes even compounded by the storm surge brought by late-season tropical cyclones (TCs), the result may be coastal flooding or sea inundation. Aiming at forecasting such sea level anomalies on the scale of hours and days with local tide gauges using a flexible and computationally efficient method, this study adapts a data-driven method based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) regression of non-uniformly lagged regional wind field from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) to capture the effects from synoptic weather evolution patterns, excluding the effect of TCs. Local atmospheric pressure and winds are also included in the predictors of the regression model. Verification results show good performance in general. Hindcast using ECMWF forecasts as input reveals that the reduction of mean absolute error (MAE) by adding the anomaly forecast to the existing predicted astronomical tide was as high as 30% in February on average over the whole range of water levels, as well as that compared against the Delft3D forecast in a strong northeast monsoon case. The EOF method generally outperformed the persistence method in forecasting water level anomaly for a lead time of more than 6 h. The performance was even better particularly for high water levels, making it suitable to serve as a forecast reference tool for providing high water level alerts to relevant emergency response agencies to tackle the risk of coastal inundation in non-TC situations and an estimate of the anomaly contribution from the northeast monsoon under its combined effect with TC. The model is capable of improving water level forecasts up to a week ahead, despite the general decreasing model performance with increasing lead time due to less accurate input from model forecasts at a longer range. Some cases show that the model successfully predicted both positive and negative anomalies with a magnitude similar to observations up to 5 to 7 days in advance.

Using ARIMA and ETS models for forecasting water level changes for sustainable environmental management

It is vital to provide useful hydrological forecasts for urban and agricultural water management, hydropower generation, flood protection and management, drought mitigation and alleviation, and river basin planning and management, among other things. This paper introduces a simple and flexible hydrological time series forecasting framework. Predicting water levels is crucial, given the need for sustainable environmental management. The prognosis should be reasonable to persuade individuals to take proper precautions. While many methods have been developed to predict water levels, here the effectiveness of two approaches to predicting river water levels was assessed. For this purpose, nine years of data were used, which were divided into input data (2014–2021) and validation data (2022), on water levels in the Morava e Binçës river for the Vitia station, in the form of monthly time series records, to identify the best model among those used and to identify the information necessary for water resource management and hazard control. Models Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) and Error Trend and Seasonality, or Exponential Smoothing (ETS), were examined using the R package to determine the most accurate. The results indicate the applicability of both models, as evidenced by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The predictive analysis based on historical water levels allowed the identification of distinct periods characterized by high and low water levels between 2022 and 2024, which is important for the area in question due to the numerous flood events occurring here.

VTNet: A multi-domain information fusion model for long-term multi-variate time series forecasting with application in irrigation water level

Time series forecasting is intricately tied to production and life, garnering widespread attention over an extended period. Enhancing the performance of long-term multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) poses a highly challenging task, as it requires mining complicated and obscure temporal patterns in many aspects. For this reason, this paper proposes a long-term forecasting model based on multi-domain fusion (VTNet) to adaptively capture and refine multi-scale intra- and inter-variate dependencies. In contrast to previous techniques, we devise a dual-stream learning architecture. Firstly, the fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is adopted to extract frequency domain information. The original sequences are then transformed into 2D visual features in the temporal-frequency domain, and a 2D-TBlock is designed for multi-scale dynamic learning. Secondly, a combination of convolution and recurrent networks continues to explore the local temporal features and preserve the global trend. Finally, multi-modal circulant fusion is applied to achieve a more comprehensive and enriched feature fusion representation, further promoting overall performance. Extensive experiments are conducted on 9 public benchmark datasets and the real-world irrigation water level to showcase VTNet’s promoted performance and generalization. Moreover, VTNet yields 46.93% and 25.36% relative improvements for water level forecasting, revealing its potential application value in water-saving planning and extreme event early warning.

Assessment and Forecasting of Water Level of Hatia Dam of Ranchi, Jharkhand

Assessment and Forecasting of Water Level of Hatia Dam of Ranchi, Jharkhand

Multi-step-ahead prediction of water levels using machine learning: A comparative analysis in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This study evaluates the efficacy of five machine learning algorithms Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine Regressor (LGBM), and Linear Regression (LR) in predicting water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta's tidal river system, a complex nonlinear hydrological phenomenon. Using daily maximum, minimum, and mean water level data from the Cao Lanh gauging station on the Tien River (2000-2020), models were developed to forecast water levels one, three, five, and seven days in advance. Performance was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, coefficient of determination, Root Mean Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error. Results indicate that all models performed well, with SVR consistently outperforming others, followed by RF, DT, and LGBM. The study demonstrates the viability of machine learning in water level prediction using solely historical water level data, potentially enhancing flood warning systems, water resource management, and agricultural planning. These findings contribute to the growing knowledge of machine learning applications in hydrology and can inform sustainable water resource management strategies in delta regions.

Water Level Prediction and Forecasting Using a Long Short-Term Memory Model for Nam Ngum River Basin in Lao PDR

The process of implementing neural networks in a computer system is known as deep learning. In this study, a deep learning model, namely long short-term memory (LSTM), was established to predict and forecast water levels for stations located at the Nam Ngum River Basin in Lao PDR. Water levels are predicted and forecasted based on the rainfall and water level data observed at previous time steps. It is proposed that the optimal sequence length for modeling should be determined based on the threshold of the correlation coefficient obtained from the water level and rainfall time series. The trained LSTM models in this study can be considered fair and adequate for water level prediction, as NSE values from 0.5 to 0.7 were mostly obtained from the model validations in the testing periods. The results showed that the autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis did help in determining the optimal sequence length in an LSTM model. The performance levels of the LSTM model in forecasting future water levels in the Nam Ngum River Basin varied; the forecasted water level hydrographs for the Pakkayoung station generally corresponded with the observed ones, while the forecasted water level hydrographs for the other stations deviated significantly from the observed hydrographs.

Краткосрочное и среднесрочное прогнозирование уровней воды на реках бассейна Тобола

In order to provide the necessary hydrological information for operational decisions on the use of water resources and protecting the population from dangerous floods for the rivers of the Tobol river basin, a methodology for daily forecasting of average daily water levels with a lead time of 1 to 10 days has been developed. The hydrograph extrapolation method was used, which takes into account water levels for the date of the forecast and for the 5 previous days. The methodology was developed for 64 sections located on the Tobol River and its tributaries of various orders. To estimate the parameters of the scheme for obtaining forecasts and their verification, hydrological observation data for the period from 1985 to 2022 were used. For most rivers in the basin, the methodology provides satisfactory results. In general, the accuracy of forecasts and their lead time increase with increasing catchment area. The methodology can be used within an automated system for preparing and issuing forecasts.

Multivariate Hydrological Modeling Based on Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Water Level Forecasting

In the Department of Chocó, flooding poses a recurrent and significant challenge due to heavy rainfall and the dense network of rivers characterizing the region. However, the lack of adequate infrastructure to prevent and predict floods exacerbates this situation. The absence of early warning systems, the scarcity of meteorological and hydrological monitoring stations, and deficiencies in urban planning contribute to the vulnerability of communities to these phenomena. It is imperative to invest in flood prediction and prevention infrastructure, including advanced monitoring systems, the development of hydrological prediction models, and the construction of hydraulic infrastructure, to reduce risk and protect vulnerable communities in Chocó. Additionally, raising public awareness of the associated risks and encouraging the adoption of mitigation and preparedness measures throughout the population are essential. This study introduces a novel approach for the multivariate prediction of hydrological variables, specifically focusing on water level forecasts for two hydrological stations along the Atrato River in Colombia. The model, utilizing a specialized type of recurrent neural network (RNN) called the long short-term memory (LSTM) network, integrates data from hydrological variables, such as the flow, precipitation, and level. With a model architecture featuring four inputs and two outputs, where flow and precipitation serve as inputs and the level serves as the output for each station, the LSTM model is adept at capturing the complex dynamics and cross-correlations among these variables. Validation involves comparing the LSTM model’s performance with linear and nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) models, considering factors such as the estimation error and computational time. Furthermore, this study explores different scenarios for water level prediction, aiming to utilize the proposed approach as an effective flood early warning system.

Method of Data Preprocessing on the Basis of Pulse Neural Network to Improve the Accuracy of Water Level Forecast on the Example of Ufa City of the Republic of Bashkortostan

The developed method of data preprocessing based on impulse neural network is considered. The essence of this method is to improve the quality of the initial dataset by minimising data noise. The peculiarity is to improve the accuracy of the predicted values of the time series of water levels obtained at the output of the pulse neural network. Retrospective data were obtained from hydrological posts (river gauge) and automatic stations with the help of FSUE «Centre of Register and Cadastre» from 01.01.1997 to 30.06.2023. On the example of hydrological post 76289 (Ufa) the experiment on forecasting of water levels with the help of the developed system «Flood 2.0» was carried out. The experiment proves the efficiency of the data preprocessing method developed in this study to improve the accuracy of water level forecasts.

Water-Level Prediction Analysis for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on a Hybrid Model of LSTM and Its Variants

The Three Gorges Hydropower Station, the largest in the world, plays a pivotal role in hydroelectric power generation, flood control, navigation, and ecological conservation. The water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir has a direct impact on these aspects. Accurate prediction of the reservoir’s water level, especially in the dam area, is of utmost importance for downstream regions’ safety and economic development. This study investigates the application and performance of four distinct deep-learning models in predicting water levels. The models evaluated include the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN–LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network–Attention–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN–Attention–LSTM). The performance of these models was assessed using several metrics, namely the Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings indicate that the CNN–Attention–LSTM model outperforms the others in all metrics, achieving an R2 value of 0.9940, MAE of 0.5296, RMSE of 0.6748, and MAPE of 0.0032. Moreover, the CNN–LSTM model exhibited exceptional predictive accuracy for lower water levels. These results underscore the potential of deep-learning models in water-level forecasting, particularly highlighting the efficacy of attention mechanisms in enhancing predictive accuracy. Precise water-level predictions are instrumental in optimizing hydropower generation and providing a scientific basis for effective flood control and water resource management.

A new approach for hydrograph data interpolation and outlier removal for vector autoregressive modelling: a case study from the Odra/Oder River

This study presents a new approach for predicting water levels of the Odra/Oder river using vector autoregressive models (VAR). We use water level time series from 27 gauging stations, on which we interpolate no-data gaps using the LinAR method and detect outliers with two separate methods: the extreme values (EV) approach and the isolation forest (IFO) algorithm. Before removing potential outliers, we propose a hydrological evaluation based on multivariate data analysis. Finally, we consider three separate data scenarios, i.e. LinAR (no outlier rejection), EV, and IFO. VAR models for six prediction gauges were built in a moving window manner on the most recent 720 hourly water levels prior to each prediction. The analysis covered the time range from January 2016 to May 2022 and resulted in ≈\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\varvec{\\approx }$$\\end{document} 1,000,000 water level forecasts (3 scenarios x 6 gauges x 55,000 hourly time steps) with lead time of 72 h. The analysis of root mean squared error (RMSE) indicates that the VAR model performs well, especially for 24-hour predictions, with RMSE values ranging from 8 to 28 cm. The model was also found to have skills in predicting a rising limb of a hydrograph. Our numerical experiments showed the susceptibility of the VAR predictions to artefacts. The IFO method was found to detect outliers skilfully, which allowed to produce the most accurate VAR-based predictions.

Краткосрочное и среднесрочное прогнозирование стока рек бассейна Дона

For the rivers of the Don basin, the Hydrometcentre of Russia has developed a methodology for daily short- and medium-range forecasting of streamflow and water levels. Average daily discharges and water levels are predicted throughout the year with a lead time of 1 to 10 days based on the hydrograph extrapolation method, which takes into account their values for the date of the forecast and for the previous 5 days. To estimate the parameters of the forecasting scheme, hydrological observation data for each river section are used. The technique gives satisfactory results and can be used within the framework of an automated system for preparing and issuing forecasts in order to provide necessary forecast information for making operational decisions on the use of water resources of the Don basin rivers and protecting the population from dangerous floods.

Spatio-temporal multivariable time vario-zoom network for water level forecasting based on high-resolution hydrological dataset

Water level forecasting is a crucial element in river-basin water resource management, particularly for shipping and extreme events, such as floods and droughts. However, accurately forecasting water levels is challenging due to the influence of non-stationarity hydrological processes, complex characteristic variables, and noisy data. Data-driven approaches in water level forecasting generally lack annotated high-resolution data. To address these problems, this paper presents the first hydrological dataset on the Xijiang River basin-Xijiang Water Dataset (XJWD) and a Spatio-Temporal Multivariable-based Time Vario-Zoom Network (STM- TVZN) model. XJWD combines multi-source raw hydrological data and has real-time and higher resolution data than comparable datasets. STM-TVZN is specifically tailored to enhance the discernment of salient features within key time windows for each variable by fusing spatio-temporal multivariate features through vario-zoom time windows. Finally, a novel metric, Extremum Time Offsets (ETO), is proposed to evaluate the accuracy of the occurrence of local extremum in time series, and it is significant for predicting and evaluating extremum events such as floods and droughts. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperformed existing models on XJWD dataset regarding error rate, stationarity, similarity, and ETO. Overall, the proposed method of combining time-variable focusing network design and spatio-temporal multivariate feature extraction is appealing for short-term water level forecasting in inland rivers, exhibiting potential capacity in strategic water-saving planning and extremum event forecasting caused by climate change.

Superior performance of hybrid model in ungauged basins for real-time hourly water level forecasting – A case study on the Lancang-Mekong mainstream

In the context of climate change and human influence, timely and reliable information about water level variations is crucial for downstream flood control, navigation, and water resource management, particularly for the Lancang-Mekong River, the largest transboundary river in Southeast Asia. However, accurate real-time water level forecasts remain challenging, especially in data-limited regions. This study focused on the Chiang Saen Station, the uppermost Mekong River hydrological station, comparing three methods to predict 48-hour water levels: the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Hydrology-Hydraulic (HH) physics-based models, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model, and hybrid models (VIC-GRU and HH-GRU). Evaluations were conducted at the 1-h, 3-h, 6-h, 12-h, 24-h, and 48-h forecast lead times. Assessments at various lead times showed that hybrid models incorporating physics-based mechanisms significantly enhanced predictions. VIC-GRU demonstrated superior performance, with KGE values surpassing 0.94, NSE values exceeding 0.95, MAE below 0.17 m, and PBIAS within ± 1 % across all lead times. Compared to GRU, PBIAS decreased by 84 %, while MAE dropped by 76 % to 81 % relative to VIC and HH, respectively. Notably, seasonal variations affected hybrid model performance, especially in the dry season. Optimal parameter selections enhanced model accuracy by 48 % to 49 %. These results underscore the potential of combining physics-based and deep learning models for more accurate, high-temporal-resolution real-time water level forecasts in data-scarce regions. A comprehensive study of streamflow characteristics enhances the advantages of this integration. This research contributes valuable insights to water level prediction in data-scarce regions and informs flood risk reduction and management in the Lancang-Mekong mainstream.

Analysing the performance of the NARX model for forecasting the water level in the Chikugo River estuary, Japan

Estuaries are dynamic environments which are driven by various natural processes like river discharge, tides, waves, influx of saline water and sediments, etc. These ecosystems are the most sensitive to sea level rise and fluctuations in river discharge associated with climate change. A direct response of sea level rise and river discharge can be observed in the water level of estuaries. However, existing models have not considered these parameters for forecasting water level. This paper focuses on developing a water level forecast model for the Chikugo River estuary in Japan using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous inputs (NARX Model). NARX neural network was used to do the one-step-ahead prediction of water level considering the various parameters that can very well be influenced by climate change: previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Accordingly, three models were developed: (i) Model I considering previous water level; (ii) Model II additionally considering river discharge; and (iii) Model III additionally considering salinity. All the models showed appreciable performance in forecasting the water level. Model III had the best correlation with the water level with a cross-correlation value of 0.6030, while the river discharge had only a cross-correlation of 0.1113 indicating that the Chikugo River estuary is tide-dominated. The model was trained using different combinations of available data - previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Cross-correlation results showed a better correlation between water level and salinity than various other combinations trained. Therefore, tidal intrusion influences the water level in the estuary, thereby depicting that sea level rise can affect the water level, and its influence can be well predicted by the developed model. The water level significantly affects the flora and fauna and the predictability of future estuarine floods can help in taking necessary mitigation strategies.