Optical Turbulence Forecast Research Articles

Continuous daytime and nighttime forecast of atmospheric optical turbulence from numerical weather prediction models.

Future satellite-to-ground optical communication systems will benefit from accurate forecasts of atmospheric optical turbulence; namely for site selection, for the routing and the operation of optical links, and for the design of optical communication terminals. This work presents a numerical approach based on the Weather Research and Forecasting software that enables continuous forecast of the refractive index structure parameter, C n2, vertical profiles. Two different C n2 models are presented and compared. One is based on monitoring the turbulent kinetic energy, while the other is a hybrid model using the Tatarskii equation to depict the free atmosphere region, and the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory for describing the boundary layer. The validity of both models is assessed by using thermosonde measurements from the Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment campaign, and from day and night measurements of the coherence length collected during a six-day campaign at Paranal observatory by a Shack-Hartmann Image Motion Monitor. The novelty of this work is the ability of the presented approach to continuously predict optical turbulence both during daytime and nighttime, and its validation with measurements in day and night conditions.

Optical turbulence forecasts at short time-scales using an autoregressive method at the Very Large Telescope

ABSTRACT In this study we demonstrate that we can provide forecasts of all the main astroclimatic parameters (seeing, wavefront coherence time, isoplanatic angle, and ground-layer fraction) on time-scales of 1 and 2 h (the most critical ones for the service mode) with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) that is smaller than or, at worst, comparable to the instrumental uncertainty (i.e. the standard deviation between instrument estimates). The seeing RMSE is 0.08 arcsec. Results are achieved thank to the use of the autoregressive method (AR) in our automatic forecast system and the study is applied to the Very Large Telescope (VLT). The AR method is a hybrid method taking into account forecasts of a non-hydrostatical mesoscale model jointly with real-time observations made in situ. We demonstrate that the AR method allows an improvement in forecast performance of roughly a factor of three or more with respect to the standard forecasts at a long time-scale (beginning of the afternoon for the coming night), depending on the parameter and the time-scale (1 and 2 h). The AR method also allows roughly a factor of two gain with respect to prediction by persistence. We also show that the AR method provides significantly better performance than a random-forest machine-learning algorithm. An extended analysis of the AR performance is provided following different strategies. Results achieved in this study are therefore very promising and tell us that we can provide real assistance to the service mode of the VLT instrumentation supported by adaptive optics systems.

Filtering techniques to enhance optical turbulence forecast performances at short time-scales

ABSTRACT The efficiency of the management of top-class ground-based astronomical facilities supported by adaptive optics (AO) relies on our ability to forecast the optical turbulence (OT) and a set of relevant atmospheric parameters. Indeed, in spite of the fact that the AO is able to achieve, at present, excellent levels of wavefront corrections (a Strehl ratio up to 90 per cent in H band), its performances strongly depend on the atmospheric conditions. Knowing in advance the atmospheric turbulence conditions allows an optimization of the AO use. It has already been proven that it is possible to provide reliable forecasts of the OT (${C_N^2 }$ profiles and integrated astroclimatic parameters such as seeing, isoplanatic angle, wavefront coherence time, etc.) for the next night. In this paper, we prove that it is possible to improve the forecast performances on shorter time-scales (order of 1 or 2 h) with consistent gains (order of 2–8) employing filtering techniques that make use of real-time measurements. This has permitted us to achieve forecasts accuracies never obtained before and reach a fundamental milestone for the astronomical applications. The time-scale of 1 or 2 h is the most critical one for an efficient management of the ground-based telescopes supported by AO. We implemented this method in the operational forecast system of the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT), named Advanced LBT Turbulence and Atmosphere (ALTA) Center that is, at our knowledge, the first operational system providing forecasts of turbulence and atmospheric parameters at short time-scales to support science operations.

中尺度气象模式预报大气光学湍流的现状与展望

中尺度气象模式预报大气光学湍流的现状与展望

Optical turbulence forecast: ready for an operational application

One of the main goals of the feasibility study MOSE (MOdellig ESO Sites) is to evaluate the performances of a method conceived to forecast the optical turbulence above the ESO sites of the Very Large Telescope and the European-Extremely Large Telescope in Chile. The method implied the use of a dedicated code conceived for the optical turbulence (OT) called Astro-Meso-Nh. In this paper we present results we obtained at conclusion of this project concerning the performances of this method in forecasting the most relevant parameters related to the optical turbulence (CN2, seeing , isoplanatic angle theta_0 and wavefront coherence time tau_0). Numerical predictions related to a very rich statistical sample of nights uniformly distributed along a solar year and belonging to different years have been compared to observations and different statistical operators have been analyzed such as classical bias, RMSE and and more sophisticated statistical operators derived by the contingency tables that are able to quantify the score of success of a predictive method such as the percentage of correct detection (PC) and the probability to detect a parameter within a specific range of values (POD). The main conclusions of the study tell us that the Astro-Meso-Nh model provides performances that are already very good to definitely guarantee a not negligible positive impact on the Service Mode of top-class telescopes and ELTs. A demonstrator for an automatic and operational version of the Astro-Meso-Nh model will be soon implemented on the sites of VLT and E-ELT.

Dealing with the forecast of the optical turbulence as a tool to support astronomy assisted by AO facilities

In the context of the research activities related to the forecast of the optical turbulence and the atmospherical parameters being relevant for ground-based astronomy we focus here our attention on two specific topics: 1. pros and cons of different solutions to supply wind speed and direction stratification on the whole atmosphere all along a night to support AO facilities; 2. the necessity of instrumentation for optical turbulence monitoring (vertical profiles on the whole atmosphere) to be used operationally. In the last two decades the development and the use of different vertical profilers covering the whole atmosphere or part of it in application to the astronomy took place. Several instruments based on different principles (with associated pros and cons) have been applied in different contexts in astronomy with a main use in the site characterization and site selection. Time changed and the necessity of the astronomy supported by AO facilities is much more demanding with a diversification of applications. Recently, motivated by a precise necessity related to the identification of an absolute reference to carry out studies on optical turbulence forecasts (MOSE project), we carried out a verification of the reliability of a few instruments that lead us to put in evidence some limitations for a few of them. At the same time such a detailed analysis permitted us to clarify the nature of some astroclimatic parameters. The main conclusion at which we arrived is two-fold. From one side we could trace a list of warnings related to different uses of such instruments. On the other side we could identify open problems that indicate that there is still space for research in the field of turbulence monitoring in application to the astronomy. Some suggestions are proposed.

基于天气预报模式预报阿里天文站大气光学湍流

基于天气预报模式预报阿里天文站大气光学湍流