Demand Forecasting Research Articles

Long-Term Fine-Grained Forecasts of Emergency Demand Using EMS Big Data and Population Estimates

In recent years, Japan has been facing a super-aging society, impacting various sectors. The issues of overcrowded emergency medical services and the increase in emergency transport cases are particularly severe, necessitating urgent responses. The research group, in collaboration with the Kobe City Fire Department, is conducting a study focusing on long-term fine-grained forecasts of emergency demand. This study aims to provide indicators for the strategic deployment of emergency teams and the scaling of medical facilities. By utilizing regional mesh data, it can capture local characteristics far more precisely than previous city or district-level forecasts, offering significant advantages for local government policy implementation. In the prediction process, there are two stages to leverage national land numerical information and improve the accuracy of the forecast model. The results reveal regional disparities in future emergency demand, enabling optimal allocation of emergency resources and strategic planning for emergency services.

Long-term load forecasting for Smart Grid

Abstract The load forecasting problem is a complicated non-linear problem connected with the weather, economy, and other complex factors. For electrical power systems, long-term load forecasting provides valuable information for scheduling maintenance, evaluating adequacy, and managing limited energy supplies. A future generating, transmission, and distribution facility's development and planning process begins with long-term demand forecasting. The development of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) has greatly expanded the amount of real-time data collection on large-scale electricity consumption. The load forecasting techniques have changed significantly as a result of the real-time utilization of this vast amount of smart meter data. This study suggests numerous approaches for long-term load forecasting using smart-metered data from an actual distribution system on the NIT Patna campus. Data pre-processing is the process of converting unprocessed data into a suitable format by eliminating possible errors caused by lost or interrupted communications, the presence of noise or outliers, duplicate or incorrect data, etc. The load forecasting model is trained using historical load data and significant climatic variables discovered through correlation analysis. With a minimum MAPE and RMSE for every testing scenario, the proposed artificial neural network model yields the greatest forecasting performance for the used system data. The efficacy of the proposed technique has been through a comparison of the acquired results with various alternative load forecasting methods.

Improved Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm with Machine Learning-Driven Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Peninsular Malaysia

Accurate electricity demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring the sustainability and reliability of power systems. Least square support vector machines (LSSVM) are well suited to handle complex non-linear power load series. However, the less optimal regularization parameter and the Gaussian kernel function in the LSSVM model have contributed to flawed forecasting accuracy and random generalization ability. Thus, these parameters of LSSVM need to be chosen appropriately using intelligent optimization algorithms. This study proposes a new hybrid model based on the LSSVM optimized by the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) for forecasting the short-term daily electricity load in Peninsular Malaysia. The IBFOA based on the sine cosine equation addresses the limitations of fixed chemotaxis constants in the original bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (BFOA), enhancing its exploration and exploitation capabilities. Finally, the load forecasting model based on LSSVM-IBFOA is constructed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as the objective function. The comparative analysis demonstrates the model, achieving the highest determination coefficient (R2) of 0.9880 and significantly reducing the average MAPE value by 28.36%, 27.72%, and 5.47% compared to the deep neural network (DNN), LSSVM, and LSSVM-BFOA, respectively. Additionally, IBFOA exhibits faster convergence times compared to BFOA, highlighting the practicality of LSSVM-IBFOA for short-term load forecasting.

Road Freight Demand Forecasting Using National Accounts’ Data—The Case of Cereals

This paper investigates the potential of utilising historical agricultural production data for enhancing road freight transport forecasting, focusing on cereal production. This study applies a multiple linear regression analysis using national statistical accounts and secondary data. The data were sourced from Finland’s Statistics Agency and the Natural Resources Institute. The analysis identifies an observable correlation between agricultural production and road freight volumes, although this correlation is not statistically significant. The highest adjusted R² observed in the models was 0.62. The analysis reveals that previous years’ production data can help forecast future road freight volumes, with vehicle mileage estimable from recent production and stock levels. Additionally, annual percentage changes in the volume of transported cereals can be partially predicted by the changes in total available cereals and opening stocks from two years prior. This exploratory research highlights the untapped predictive potential of agricultural production variables in forecasting road freight demand, suggesting areas for further forecasting enhancement.

Intricate Supply Chain Demand Forecasting Based on Graph Convolution Network

Globalization has contributed to the increasing complexity of supply chain structures. In this regard, precise demand forecasting for the intricate supply chain holds paramount importance in effective supply chain management. Traditional statistical models and deep learning methods often face challenges in efficiently discerning correlations within a myriad of interconnected demands. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes an intricate supply chain demand forecasting method based on graph convolution networks adept at handling non-Euclidean data. First, the companies within the supply chain are treated as nodes in the graph structure, and the relationships between them are treated as edges, with demand data serving as the features of these edges. Then, a graph convolutional network is constructed to aggregate node and edge information. Through a multi-layer network, the relationships among nodes, edges, and historical demand are established to facilitate the prediction of supply chain demands. In this process, the graph convolutional network incorporates supply chain connectivity information into demand time series analysis. This integration of surface-level topological features and deeper latent correlation attributes across the supply chain’s nodes refines the demand forecasting precision across the entire supply chain. The validation experiment in this paper is grounded in sales data of a singular product from multiple sales nodes of an electronics company. The results demonstrate that the proposed method surpasses four other traditional demand forecasting algorithms significantly in terms of accuracy, providing substantial evidence for the superior performance of graph networks in the analysis of intricate supply chain relationships.

Forecasting Market Activity and Aggregate Demand in China Using Time Series Models

The purpose of this study was to forecast market activity and aggregate demand in China using time series models. Forecasts of market activity (MA) and aggregate demand (AD) provide insights into consumer behavior and economic trends, which are crucial for policymakers and businesses alike. In order to forecast the MA and AD in China, this study uses the time series model, especially the exponential smoothing model. Based on the increase rates of M1 and M2 money supply, respectively, and the difference in increase rates between them. These indicators are necessary to assess MA and AD and reflect changes in money liquidity and people's spending behavior. The results suggest that people will be less willing to spend and more inclined to save in the coming years. This finding suggests that MA may decline as consumers become more cautious and prioritize saving over spending. This trend could be attributed to a variety of factors, including economic uncertainty or changes in monetary policy. The implications of this research are significant because it provides a forecasting framework that can help policymakers and businesses anticipate changes in consumer demand and adjust their strategies accordingly. Understanding these trends can lead to more informed decisions in economic planning and financial forecasting.

OP045 Topic: AS09–Global Health/Resource Limited Setting/Health Inequalities/Impact of Global Warming/Other: LESOTHO NATIONAL OXYGEN DASHBOARD FOR REAL-TIME MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF HOSPITAL OXYGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND

OP045 Topic: AS09–Global Health/Resource Limited Setting/Health Inequalities/Impact of Global Warming/Other: LESOTHO NATIONAL OXYGEN DASHBOARD FOR REAL-TIME MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF HOSPITAL OXYGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND

ChatEV: Predicting electric vehicle charging demand as natural language processing

The increasing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) in recent times has introduced considerable load conditions for urban power grids and transportation systems, which highlights the importance of accurately predicting charging demand to enhance charging efficiency. However, current forecasting methods still face challenges in effectively aligning diverse data and generating accurate predictions that can be applied to unseen scenarios. To overcome the challenges, this work introduces a novel perspective: employing large language models (LLMs) as EV charging demand predictors. First, we reformulate the prediction task into a text-to-text format, enabling seamless and effective alignment of various features within a unified language semantic space. Subsequently, we fine-tune a LLM using a meta-learning framework to adapt it specifically for EV charging prediction. Through comprehensive evaluations, it has been demonstrated that the proposed model, ChatEV, achieves outstanding performance in EV charging demand forecasting, particularly in scenarios with limited data.

Using Statewide Transportation Planning Model to Forecast Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging at Stations Along Intercity Highways

Using Statewide Transportation Planning Model to Forecast Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging at Stations Along Intercity Highways

Machine Learning-Based Demand and Pricing Optimization for a Resilient Automotive Supply Chain

In the supply chain management of the automotive industry, this paper investigates the use of demand forecasting, supply optimization, and price optimization. Optimizing the supply chain is essential for satisfying changing customer needs, cutting expenses, and increasing revenue. This study aims to improve the accuracy of demand prediction, optimize supplier relationships, and simplify pricing strategies through the use of ML-driven models. To solve the difficulties faced by automakers in a volatile market, the suggested framework combines historical data analysis, market trends, and inventory management strategies. The results help the automotive industry's supply chain systems become more flexible and resilient.

Artificial Intelligence in Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of Predictive Modeling and Data-Driven Solutions for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly recognized as a powerful tool for addressing the challenges of climate change. Its ability to process vast amounts of data and generate advanced predictive models positions AI as a key player in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and develop sustainable solutions. This review delves into the multifaceted role of AI in climate change mitigation, highlighting its potential in several critical areas. Firstly, AI is revolutionizing predictive climate modeling by providing more accurate forecasts and simulations, enabling better-informed policy and decision-making. Secondly, it is optimizing energy systems through smart grid management, demand forecasting, and the integration of renewable energy sources, thereby enhancing energy efficiency and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Furthermore, AI is advancing carbon capture and storage technologies by improving the identification of optimal sites and enhancing process efficiency. In environmental monitoring, AI-driven solutions are enabling real-time detection and analysis of environmental data, contributing to more effective conservation efforts. This review also presents case studies and data that demonstrate the tangible impact of AI applications in driving progress towards global emission reduction targets. However, the adoption of AI in this domain is not without challenges. Issues such as data privacy, algorithmic transparency, and the ethical implications of AI deployment need to be carefully addressed. The paper concludes by outlining future research directions and emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to fully harness the potential of AI in combating climate change.

Theoretical foundations and practical implementation of supply chain optimization a metal fabrication business model

In the dynamic landscape of modern business, effective management of supply chains stands as a cornerstone of organizational success and competitive edge. This study investigates the theoretical principles and practical implementations of optimization models aimed at refining supply chain operations in the metal fabrication business, giving the maximum profit. It begins with a comprehensive survey of optimization theory, encompassing linear programming, integer programming, and stochastic optimization. It proceeds to their application in addressing diverse challenges encountered in supply chain management. The discussion includes deterministic models, such as those optimizing facility location under capacity constraints and transportation logistics, alongside stochastic models designed to manage uncertainties inherent in demand forecasting and inventory control. Advanced methodologies like metaheuristic algorithms and multi-objective optimization techniques are examined for their capacity to navigate the intricate and often conflicting objectives within supply chain networks. Through comprehensive theoretical analysis and a study of the supply chain model developed for the metal fabrication business, this paper contributes to advancing knowledge in mechanical engineering and supply chain management, offering insights pertinent to practitioners and researchers alike. Ultimately, it emphasizes the critical role of optimization models in optimizing efficiency, reducing costs, improving profit margin, reducing CO2 emission, and enhancing competitiveness in modern supply chain operations.

Enhancing supply chain security and transparency with ai and blockchain integration for future-proof solutions

The objective of this review paper is to examine the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology to enhance supply chain security and transparency, providing future-proof solutions for global industries. As the digital landscape evolves, traditional supply chain management methods face increasing vulnerabilities and inefficiencies. This paper reviews existing literature to assess the current challenges and potential benefits of integrating AI and blockchain in supply chains. The review highlights how AI enhances predictive analytics, demand forecasting, and operational efficiency, while blockchain ensures immutable, decentralized ledgers for real-time tracking and verification of goods. The synergy between these technologies offers unprecedented levels of transparency, enabling stakeholders to detect and respond to anomalies swiftly. Case studies across various industries demonstrate significant improvements in reducing fraud, counterfeiting, and human errors, alongside enhanced compliance with regulatory standards. Conclusions drawn from this review underscore the transformative potential of AI and blockchain in creating resilient, transparent, and secure supply chains. The integration of these technologies not only addresses current vulnerabilities but also lays the foundation for adaptive, intelligent supply chain networks capable of withstanding future disruptions. This paper provides actionable insights and practical frameworks for businesses and policymakers aiming to implement AI and blockchain solutions, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, cross-industry collaboration, and continuous innovation in achieving long-term supply chain sustainability and security.

On the use of machine learning in supply chain management: a systematic review

Abstract Machine learning (ML) has evolved into a crucial tool in supply chain management, effectively addressing the complexities associated with decision-making by leveraging available data. The utilization of ML has markedly surged in recent years, extending its influence across various supply chain operations, ranging from procurement to product distribution. In this paper, based on a systematic search, we provide a comprehensive literature review of the research dealing with the use of ML in supply chain management. We present the major contributions to the literature by classifying them into five classes using the five processes of the supply chain operations reference framework. We demonstrate that the applications of ML in supply chain management have significantly increased in both trend and diversity over recent years, with substantial expansion since 2019. The review also reveals that demand forecasting has attracted most of the applications followed by inventory management and transportation. The paper enables to identify the research gaps in the literature and provides some avenues for further research.

Assessing the Profit Impact of ARIMA and Neural Network Demand Forecasts in Retail Inventory Replenishment

This study investigates the integration of demand forecasting and inventory replenishment strategies to enhance retail profitability. A deterministic optimal replenishment model is utilized to analyze the predictive performance of various neural network architectures and ARIMA models using real sales data. The predictive accuracy and subsequent influence on optimal firm profits over a multi-period planning horizon is assessed. The Integer Programming model devised optimizes daily replenishment across multiple retail routes, taking into account sales revenue, supply costs, inventory holding, sales loss, and transportation expenses. The study is distinctive in its dual assessment: it evaluates both the accuracy of forecasting methods and their direct impact on profitability through systematic inventory decisions. Neural network architectures selected for minimizing error in product sales predictions have 6% lower mean squared error compared to Akaike Information Criterion minimizing ARIMA models. For longer horizon predictions necessary in performance gap grows larger, e.g., with %60 difference for predictions 15 days ahead. Predictions reflect as 1.6% higher profits on average, when neural network predictions and more efficient longer planning horizons of the optimization model are preferred. Planning 30 days ahead, optimizing with neural network predictions elicits 2.3% higher profits compared to profits attainable based on ARIMA predictions. Our findings illustrate how different forecasting methods can affect firm profitability by shaping inventory replenishment strategies. By merging mathematical optimization with time series forecasting, this research provides a comprehensive evaluation of how advanced predictive technologies can enhance retail inventory practices and improve profitability.

Demand Information Forecasting and Sharing in a Remanufacturing Closed‐Loop Supply Chain

ABSTRACTWe delve into the incorporation of demand information forecasting and the subsequent information sharing in a closed‐loop supply chain (CLSC). We consider the competition between an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and an independent remanufacturer (IR). The OEM autonomously determines whether to forecast demand information and further considers whether to disseminate the realized demand signal to the IR. We find that the IR adopts either a partial‐ or a full‐remanufacturing strategy to compete with the OEM. The OEM shares negative demand signals with the IR, as such signals decrease the retail prices and increase the production quantity of all‐new products. Additionally, the sharing of negative demand signals helps alleviate the cannibalization effect caused by the introduction of remanufactured products. When examining the optimal sharing strategy in equilibrium, the OEM only invests in forecasting demand if the forecasting cost is relatively low. Furthermore, the numerical studies reveal that, in equilibrium, the OEM does not necessarily benefit from possessing more precise demand information. Additionally, we assess the influence of consumers' environmental awareness on the production decisions of both companies. The findings indicate that heightened environmental awareness prompts the IR to adopt a full‐remanufacturing strategy, and the information management strategies remain robust.

Bayesian Ensembles of Exponentially Smoothed Life-Cycle Forecasts

Problem definition: We study the problem of forecasting an entire demand distribution for a new product before and after its launch. Firms need accurate distributional forecasts of demand to make operational decisions about capacity, inventory, and marketing expenditures. We introduce a unified, robust, and interpretable approach to producing these pre- and postlaunch distributional forecasts. Methodology/results: Our approach is inspired by Bayesian model averaging. Each candidate model in our ensemble is a life-cycle model fitted to the completed life cycle of a comparable product. A prelaunch forecast is an ensemble with equal weights on the candidate models’ forecasts, whereas a postlaunch forecast is an ensemble with weights that evolve according to Bayesian updating. Our approach is part frequentist and part Bayesian, resulting in a novel approach tailored to the demand forecasting challenge. We also introduce a new type of life-cycle or product diffusion model with states that can be updated using exponential smoothing. The trend in this model follows the density of an exponentially tilted Gompertz random variable. For postlaunch forecasting, this model is attractive because it can adapt itself to the most recent changes in a product’s life cycle. We provide closed-form distributional forecasts from our model. In two empirical studies, we show that when the ensemble’s candidate models are all in our new type of exponential smoothing model, this version of the ensemble outperforms several leading approaches in both point and quantile forecasting. Managerial implications: In a data-driven operations environment, our model can produce accurate forecasts frequently and at scale. When quantile forecasts are needed, our model has the potential to provide meaningful economic benefits. In addition, our model’s interpretability should be attractive to managers who already use exponential smoothing and ensemble methods for other forecasting purposes. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0359 .

Designing circular supply chains with digital technologies for competitive sustainability: An operation management perspective

The objective of this research is to investigate how digital technologies, specifically blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT), can be integrated into circular supply chains to enhance sustainability and preserve a competitive advantage. The goals of circular supply chains, which are founded on the ideas of the circular economy, are to reduce waste, promote resource regeneration, and lessen their negative effects on the environment. The study highlights the critical role that digital technologies play in guaranteeing transparency, promoting real-time monitoring, and optimizing resource distribution. Blockchain offers traceability and trust, IoT boosts visibility and operational efficiency within supply chains, and AI improves demand forecasting and resource efficiency. Though the benefits are obvious, there are significant obstacles to overcome, including high implementation costs, complex technological issues, scalability issues, and regulatory barriers. The research demonstrates how these digital technologies can effectively promote sustainability while enhancing operational efficiency through case studies of well-known companies like HP, Walmart, and Philips. The report also highlights important future trends and makes suggestions for companies looking to develop their workforces, invest in digital technologies, and work together on circular economy platforms. In the end, digital tool adoption is essential for creating supply chains that are more sustainable and competitive in the modern global economy.

The Impact of AI on International Trade: Opportunities and Challenges

This study aims to explore the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in international trade, focusing on its key roles in optimizing trade operations, enhancing trade finance, and expanding market access. In trade optimization, AI leverages advanced machine learning and predictive analytics to enhance demand forecasting, route optimization, and customs procedures, leading to more efficient logistics and inventory management. In trade finance, AI can automate document processing and risk assessment, increasing access to finance and enhancing transactional transparency, particularly through integration with blockchain technology. In terms of market access, AI-driven analytics can identify consumer trends and competitive dynamics, enabling personalized marketing and overcoming linguistic and cultural barriers. Due to the lack of quantitative data, this study employed qualitative research methods, specifically a multiple-case-study approach. The case studies of leading companies such as Alibaba, DHL, and Maersk showcase how they leverage AI to optimize their trade operations, improve customer service, and achieve greater efficiency. These real-world examples demonstrate AI’s practical applications and significant benefits in the global trade landscape. However, the adoption of AI in international trade is not without challenges. These include issues around data quality, ethical concerns, technological complexity, and public perception. Policy recommendations highlight the need for a robust data infrastructure, establishing ethical AI guidelines, and fostering international cooperation to align data protection regulations.

AI-driven business analytics for SMES: Unlocking value through predictive and prescriptive analytic

Introduction: With an emphasis on predictive and prescriptive analytics, this study examines the revolutionary implications of AI-driven analytics on small and medium-sized organizations (SMEs). SMEs play a crucial role in the global economy and require advanced solutions to improve decision-making and operational efficiency. The research aims to explore how AI-powered analytics, particularly in predictive and prescriptive forms, can add value to SMEs by enhancing demand forecasting, customer behavior insights, and financial planning. To determine how AI-driven analytics might affect SMEs, a thorough assessment of the literature was undertaken. The study reveals that SMEs implementing predictive analytics experience notable improvements in areas such as inventory management, revenue generation, and overall operational efficiency. Furthermore, businesses that leverage prescriptive analytics benefit from optimized resource allocation, enhanced marketing strategies, and better risk management practices. These findings highlight the potential for AI to overcome key challenges faced by SMEs, including budget constraints and limited data availability. AI-driven analytics can provide valuable insights that allow SMEs to streamline operations and foster growth. With future trends pointing to greater accessibility and developments in machine learning, natural language processing, and the integration of AI with other cutting-edge technologies, like blockchain, AI-powered analytics offers substantial prospects for small and medium-sized enterprises.