Forecast Data Research Articles

Leveraging social media data for pandemic detection and prediction

Governments and healthcare institutions are increasingly recognizing the value of leveraging social media data to address disease outbreaks. This is due to the rapid dissemination and rich content of social media data, which includes real-time reactions and calls for help from people. However, current research on which social media data can be utilized for information support, as well as the underlying reasons why social media data can be utilized for information support, remains limited. This study aims to make up for the aforementioned limitation by investigating which social media information is more likely to reflect the severity of an outbreak through empirical and prediction models, while also elucidating why social media data has the ability to reflect pandemic through content analysis. The COVID-19 outbreak was utilized as a case example in this study because it has the advantage of enhancing the universality of results and promoting the validation of the model with multiple waves of data. The empirical model results indicate that social media activity from public users is more likely to reflect the ground truth during pandemic. In particular, it was found that negative sentiment expressed in blog posts by public users during pandemic aligns more closely with the severity of disease outbreak. Then, a prediction model was proposed to further validate these findings of the empirical model. Finally, a content analysis was conducted based on the conclusions drawn from empirical model and prediction model. The content analysis revealed that the predictive capability of social media data for pandemic originates from individual self-reporting of illness. This study provides contributions and insights into which types of information can be used for pandemic monitoring and forecasting. The findings of our research have significant implications for governments and healthcare institutions in leveraging social media data for pandemic monitoring and forecasting.

A novel integrated method for improving the forecasting accuracy of crude oil: ESMD-CFastICA-BiLSTM-Attention

The volatility of crude oil price can significantly impact the stability of the crude oil market and even the global economy. Effectively predicting global crude oil price and volatility provides a scientific basis for decision-making for market regulators and investors worldwide, promoting the sound development of the global economy. In this study, we integrate signal processing with deep learning methods to present an optimal forecasting strategy for global crude oil price and volatility. We select the daily price of the WTI crude oil market from April 4, 1983, to December 12, 2023, for calculating volatility. Subsequently, employing extreme-point symmetric empirical mode decomposition (ESMD), K-means clustering, and fast independent component analysis method, we decompose and reconstruct the forecasting data, obtaining independent components with non-Gaussian characteristics. These components serve as inputs to estimate the accuracy of various models, including BiLSTM, Attention, LSTM, SVR, RF, and their combinations, in predicting crude oil price and volatility from both a point prediction and interval prediction perspective. Empirical results demonstrate that data decomposition, reconstruction, and the BiLSTM-Attention model outperform other models in predicting crude oil price and volatility.

Comparative analysis of the dispersion modeling and dose projection results performed under BARCO international project

Radiological assessments on zones to take protective actions in case of a nuclear or radiological emergency involve a series of real-time forecasts of radiological impact on the public at various distances from the release point, using actual weather or forecast data, information on the source term or facility status, and primary radiation monitoring data. This practice is implemented during the operation of emergency centers around the world in order to promptly report the occurrence and possible consequences of radiological accidents in the country and abroad in the event of a possible transboundary impact. Since the Chornobyl disaster, a lot of emergency exercises, research programs and projects, in particular, benchmarking, have served as international platforms for improving modeling capacity in atmospheric dispersion. This activity is carried out both on the basis of past severe accidents with significant atmospheric releases and corresponding radiological consequences, and on the basis of specific conditional (hypothetical) events that are developed in accordance with the purpose of the study. The paper is focused on the comparison results performed under the international project “Benchmarking on Assessment of Radiological COnsequences” (BARCO) conducted in 2020–2021 between five technical support organisations – members of the European Technical Safety Organisations Network (ETSON). The work contains a short overview of relevant international activity conducted in the past, a description of the BARCO project and its objectives, a list of participants, project tasks, initial data (source term, meteorology, list of benchmarking quantities, approach to data exchange, codes used). The study presents some of comparative analysis results obtained via two techniques such as code-to-code analysis (CTCA) and matched-pair analysis (MPA). The results discussion concentrates on the overall recommendations for code users. Conclusions provide the main outputs of the project.

Data-driven modelling of coastal storm erosion for real-time forecasting at a wave-dominated embayed beach

Emergency managers have an increasing need for tools to enhance preparedness to extreme coastal storms and support disaster risk reduction measures. With the emergence of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for coastal storm hazards, a fundamental challenge is the accurate prediction of sandy beach erosion at lead times of days to weeks corresponding to an approaching storm event. This work presents a data-driven modelling approach to predict storm-driven beach erosion (shoreline change) using a large dataset of 276 individual storm events at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, SE Australia. Correlation analysis between individual storm characteristics and shoreline response at three locations along the embayment with varying exposure to the prevailing waves indicates that cumulative storm wave energy is the dominant driver of storm erosion at this site. This is followed by the pre-storm beach width, storm wave direction and to a minimal extent, storm wave period and water levels. A multi-linear regression model of storm erosion is developed and found to accurately predict shoreline change due to individual storm events (RMSE = 3.7 m–6.4 m). This work highlights the value of high-frequency shoreline data for storm erosion forecasting and provides a framework for real-time forecasting applications.

A time-space varying distributed unit hydrograph (TS-DUH) for operational flash flood forecasting using publicly-available datasets

Although flash floods originate in upstream (headwater) catchments causing hazards locally, they often occur at short time scales and affect widely while relatively small size catchments respond to intense rainfall systems. Due to the heavy cost of computing and parameterization, high resolution spatially distributed hydrological models are not effectively deployed for global or large-scale flash flood forecasting. This research proposes a Time-Space varying Distributed Unit Hydrograph (TS-DUH) based on publicly-available data for efficient global scale flash flood forecasting. TS-DUH estimates the runoff travel time (and flow velocity) from each location to the catchment outlet based on topographic and hydroclimatic characteristics, while it delineates the runoff-drainage process by emphasizing the heterogeneous and dynamic runoff contribution corresponding to rainfall and soil moisture variations. The excess rainfall is estimated by two methods: the Soil Conservation Service’s (SCS) curve (CN-Runoff), and the widely used Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) which provides both long-term (2000-present) well-archived and real-time online global runoff (GFMS-Runoff) prediction based on a distributed hydrological model. TS-DUH is first validated based on 6,324 flash flood events from 281 small-to-medium-sized catchments broadly distributed across the CONUS, using “perfect” precipitation input (i.e., NLDAS-2 for this study). TS-DUH calibrated with GFMS-Runoff shows better performance than using CN-Runoff, with a probability of detection (POD) value of 0.9 for all the events and 71% of them having a KGE metric above 0.5. More importantly, with the real-time satellite rainfall-driven GFMS-Runoff, the long-term (2003–2020) TS-DUH simulation shows better performance than GFMS, indicating promising value in global flash flood prediction of the TS-DUH-integrated GFMS.

Post-Processing Maritime Wind Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts around the Korean Peninsula Using Support Vector Regression and Principal Component Analysis

Accurate wind data are crucial for successful search and rescue (SAR) operations on the sea surface in maritime accidents, as survivors or debris tend to drift with the wind. As maritime accidents frequently occur outside the range of wind stations, SAR operations heavily rely on wind forecasts generated by numerical models. However, numerical models encounter delays in generating results due to spin-up issues, and their predictions can sometimes exhibit inherent biases caused by geographical factors. To overcome these limitations, we reviewed the observations for the first 24 h of the 72-hour forecast from the ECMWF and then post-processed the forecast for the remaining 48 h. By effectively reducing the dimensionality of input variables comprising observation and forecast data using principal component analysis, we improved wind predictions with support vector regression. Our model achieved an average RMSE improvement of 16.01% compared to the original forecast from the ECMWF. Furthermore, it achieved an average RMSE improvement of 5.42% for locations without observation data by employing a model trained on data from the nearest wind station and then applying an adaptive weighting scheme to the output of that model.

Photovoltaic Energy Anomaly Detection using Transformer Based Machine Learning

This study uses the Anomaly Transformer model to find anomalies in photovoltaic energy generation in Malang, Indonesia. The main background of this study is the lack of satellite monitoring in this region and the importance of annual data for electricity generation forecasting. Temperature scattered direct solar radiation, and hourly electricity production are all part of the dataset used which is only available since 2019. Anomalies were detected at 05.00 and 16.00 WIB, indicating instability in the energy supply due to high temperatures in the morning and heavy rain in the afternoon. Detection of these anomalies is important to improve the efficiency and reliability of photovoltaic systems, reduce operational costs, and reduce the risk of system failure. Indonesia has many challenges for photovoltaic energy generation due to its unique location, with many islands located close to the equator. The use of the Anomaly Transformer algorithm improves the accuracy of anomaly detection over conventional methods. This algorithm helps to find complex patterns in very large time series. The results show that the anomaly transformer model can effectively detect anomalous patterns. It offers ideas to improve the stability and efficiency of photovoltaic systems in Malang and other areas with comparable environmental conditions. Improved energy efficiency and environmental sustainability are the results of anomaly pattern detection.

Fine-scale deep learning model for time series forecasting

Time series data, characterized by large volumes and wide-ranging applications, requires accurate predictions of future values based on historical data. Recent advancements in deep learning models, particularly in the field of time series forecasting, have shown promising results by leveraging neural networks to capture complex patterns and dependencies. However, existing models often overlook the influence of short-term cyclical patterns in the time series, leading to a lag in capturing changes and accurately tracking fluctuations in forecast data. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces a new method that utilizes an interpolation technique to create a fine-scaled representation of the cyclical pattern, thereby alleviating the impact of the irregularity in the cyclical component and hence enhancing prediction accuracy. The proposed method is presented along with evaluation metrics and loss functions suitable for time series forecasting. Experiment results on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in effectively capturing cyclical patterns and improving prediction accuracy.

Hybrid Long Short-Term Memory Fused Convolution Neural Network for Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is an effort by meteorologists to predict whether states at a few prospective times and the conditions of weather that might be estimated. With new modern technology, present weather forecasting methods are highly precise. To achieve high accuracy, the methods developed for weather forecasting were much more complicated owing to many factors. Here, the usage of time series data for weather forecasting is done by the devised Long-Short Term Memory fused Convolutional neural network (LSTMFCNN). At first, the acquisition of input time series data from the specific dataset is done. In The feature extraction technical features are done by considering the input time series data. Then, the feature extraction is done utilizing the Rider Optimization Algorithm-Based Neural Network (RideNN) with the Soergel metric. RideNN is the integration of the Rider Optimization Algorithm (ROA) with the Neural Network (NN) classifier. Thus, the feature fusion step reduces the complexity and improves the accuracy. Thereafter, the oversampling technique is utilized for the data augmentation (DA) process. Finally, weather forecasting is done utilizing the newly designed LSTMFCNN and is obtained by the integration of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Deep Long-Short Term Memory (DLSTM).

Integrated analysis of remote sensing with meteorological and health data for allergic rhinitis forecasting in Tianjin.

Long time series of vegetation monitoring can be carried out by remote sensing data, the level of urban greening is objectively described, and the spatial characteristics of plant pollen are indirectly understood. Pollen is the main allergen in patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis. Meteorological factors affect the release and diffusion of pollen. Therefore, studying of the complex relationship between meteorological factors and allergic rhinitis is essential for effective prevention and treatment of the disease. In this study, we leverage remote sensing data for a comprehensive decade-long analysis of urban greening in Tianjin, which exhibits an annual increase in vegetative cover of 0.51 per annum, focusing on its impact on allergic rhinitis through changes in pollen distribution. Utilizing high-resolution imagery, we quantify changes in urban Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC) and its correlation with pollen types and allergic rhinitis cases. Our analysis reveals a significant correlation between FVC trends and pollen concentrations, with a surprising value of 0.71, highlighting the influence of urban greenery on allergenic pollen levels. We establish a robust connection between the seasonal patterns of pollen outbreaks and allergic rhinitis consultations, with a noticeable increase in consultations during high pollen seasons. our findings indicate a higher allergenic potential of herbaceous compared to woody vegetation. This nuanced understanding underscores the importance of pollen sensitivity, alongside concentration, in driving allergic rhinitis incidents. Utilizing a Generalized Linear Model, significant features influencing the number of visits for allergic rhinitis (P < 0.05) were identified. Both GLM and LSTM models were employed to forecast the visitation volumes for rhinitis during the spring and summer-autumn of 2022. Upon validation, it was found that the R² values between the simulated and actual values for both GLM and LSTM models surpassed the 95% confidence threshold. Moreover, the R² values for the summer-autumn seasons (GLM: 0.56, LSTM: 0.72) were higher than those for spring (GLM: 0.22, LSTM: 0.47). Comparing the errors between the simulated and actual values of GLM and LSTM models, LSTM exhibited higher simulation precision in both spring and summer-autumn seasons, demonstrating superior simulation performance. Overall, our study pioneers the integration of remote sensing with meteorological and health data for allergic rhinitis forecasting. This integrative approach provides valuable insights for public health planning, particularly in urban settings, and lays the groundwork for advanced, location-specific allergenic pollen forecasting and mitigation strategies.

Comparison of Fuzzy Grey Markov Model (1,1) and Fuzzy Grey Markov Model (2,1) in Forecasting Gold Prices in Indonesia

Currently, gold investment is considered promising despite the ever-changing price of gold. However, obtaining optimal profits is a challenge for investors. Therefore, a proper forecasting method is needed to forecast the gold price so investors can know the best transaction time. This study used two forecasting methods: the Fuzzy Grey Markov Model (1,1) and a new, never-before-used approach, the Fuzzy Grey Markov Model (2,1). The Fuzzy Grey Markov Model (2,1) approach is interesting because it can be considered for forecast data that shows varying increases and decreases, such as the gold price data used in this study. Both methods are combined models that utilize fuzzy logic to handle uncertainty in data; the Grey model forms a forecasting model, and the Markov chain determines the state transition probability matrix. Next, the error rates of the two methods are compared based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value to obtain the best forecasting method. As a result of this study, the Fuzzy Grey Markov Model (1,1) was chosen as the best forecasting method with a MAPE value of 0.28%.

Comparison of Seasonal ARIMA and Support Vector Machine Forecasting Method for International Arrival in Lombok

Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average is a statistical model designed to analyze and forecast data with that shows seasonal patterns and trends. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a machine learning-based technique that can be used to forecast time series data. SVM uses the kernel tricks to overcome non-linearity problems, whereas The SARIMA model is well-suited for data that exhibit seasonal fluctuations that repeat over time. Lombok International Airport is the main gateway to West Nusa Tenggara and has become a symbol of tourism growth in the region. Time series analysis is a very useful tool in determining patterns and forecasting the number of international arrivals at Lombok International Airport within a certain period. This study aims to compare the SARIMA model and SVM which can read non-linear patterns in the number of international arrivals at Lombok International Airport. After obtaining the SARIMA and SVM models, the two models are evaluated using test data based on the smallest RMSE value. The SVM model with a linear kernel trick provides the smallest RMSE when compared to SARIMA with SVM RMSE is 238,655. While the best model in Seasonal ARIMA is SARIMA (3,1,0)(1,0,0)12, the forecasting results show SARIMA is better in the forecasting process for the next 10 months.

COMPARISON OF DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN IN FORECASTING FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVALS

Foreign tourist arrivals are one of the factors that make a positive contribution to a country's economy, especially the addition of foreign exchange. This activity is important for the tourism industry and the government to make policies for progress in the tourism sector. This research aims to forecast data on foreign tourist arrivals, especially land routes. This data set, which is a monthly time series covering the period from January 2018 to October 2023, is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The DES technique is a method that quickly adapts to changes in data patterns and can lessen the impacts of random fluctuations, resulting in more stable estimates. Meanwhile, the FTS-MC approach can handle large data variations by utilizing fuzzy sets. Furthermore, combining fuzzy time series with Markov Chains increases forecast accuracy by taking into account state transitions and probability. The research demonstrates that the DES method produces the MAPE value of 0.108530 or 10% which is obtained from the alpha value of 0.9 and beta 0.2. The MAPE 0.108530 means that the ability of the forecasting model is classified as a good category. In the FTS-MC method, the forecast data is close to the actual data. This is indicated by the MAPE value obtained of 0.086850 or 8%, which means that the ability of the forecasting model is very good. Based on the analysis of the two methods, it is concluded that the FTS-MC method is better applied to data on land-based foreign tourist arrivals.

Seasonal solar irradiance forecasting using artificial intelligence techniques with uncertainty analysis

Renewable integration in utility grid is crucial in the current energy scenario. Optimized utilization of renewable energy can minimize the energy consumption from the grid. This demands accurate forecasting of renewable contribution and planning. Most of the researches aim to find a suitable forecasting model in terms of accuracy and error metrics. However, the uncertainty and variability in these forecasts are also significant. This work combines point forecast with interval forecast to provide comprehensive information about the forecast uncertainty. In this work, solar irradiance forecasting is carried out using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Forecasting is done using seasonal auto-regressive moving average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX), support vector regression (SVR), long short term memory (LSTM) techniques and performance is evaluated. SVR model exhibited the best performance with R2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^2$$\\end{document} values of 0.97 and 0.96 for winter and summer respectively and 0.85 for monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This is followed by forecast error distribution studies and uncertainty analysis. For this, SVR forecast error data is fitted using laplace distribution. Uncertainty study is carried out using confidence intervals and coverage rates. Excellent coverage rates are obtained for various confidence levels for all seasons, indicating the appropriate fitting of error distribution. For the narrow 85% confidence band, coverage rates of 89%, 95%, 90%, and 88% are obtained for winter, summer, monsoon and post-monsoon respectively. The work emphasizes the need for error-distribution studies, modeling of forecast errors and their application in providing reliable forecast intervals with the perspective of enhancing system reliability.

Experimental development of a method of short and medium-term photovoltaic generation forecasting using multivariate statistics and mathematical modeling

Uncertainties in photovoltaic solar energy production can make it challenging to dispatch energy into the electricity grid. Although photovoltaic generation storage solves this problem, a forecasting of the photovoltaic solar energy produced is necessary to control the energy injected into the grid. This article aims to develop the probabilistic methodology Reduced-Rank Regression (RRR) for forecasting photovoltaic generation in the short and medium terms. The RRR methodology forecasting uses the generation data of a grid-connected photovoltaic system. The proposed RRR model is simple, easy to access and apply, and does not use irradiance data. The model developed uses the multivariate statistical analysis technique. A advantage is that with a correlation with the performance indices of photovoltaic solar energy systems, the proposed method can be applied in any geographical location on the planet and with different photovoltaic solar energy systems. The application of the RRR methodology requires two searches/inputs. The first input is weather forecast data obtained from a weather forecasting platform, and the second is actual historical data on photovoltaic generation at the site where the method was developed. The proposed method was compared with the persistence method. Using a horizon of 1–10 h, the average monthly root mean square error for the RRR ranged from 7.3 % to 50.1 %. For the persistence method, the average monthly root mean square error ranged from 15.1 % to 65.0 %. Therefore, with the horizon of 24 h, the average monthly root mean square error for the RRR ranged from 4.5 % to 43.2 %. For the persistence method, the average monthly root mean square error ranged from 11.5 % to 75.0 %. We show experimentally that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in terms of obtaining photovoltaic generation forecasting without using solar radiation data.

A User-Focused Approach to Evaluating Probabilistic and Categorical Forecasts

Abstract A user-focused verification approach for evaluating probability forecasts of binary outcomes (also known as probabilistic classifiers) is demonstrated that (i) is based on proper scoring rules, (ii) focuses on user decision thresholds, and (iii) provides actionable insights. It is argued that when categorical performance diagrams and the critical success index are used to evaluate overall predictive performance, rather than the discrimination ability of probabilistic forecasts, they may produce misleading results. Instead, Murphy diagrams are shown to provide a better understanding of the overall predictive performance as a function of user probabilistic decision threshold. We illustrate how to select a proper scoring rule, based on the relative importance of different user decision thresholds, and how this choice impacts scores of overall predictive performance and supporting measures of discrimination and calibration. These approaches and ideas are demonstrated using several probabilistic thunderstorm forecast systems as well as synthetic forecast data. Furthermore, a fair method for comparing the performance of probabilistic and categorical forecasts is illustrated using the fixed risk multicategorical (FIRM) score, which is a proper scoring rule directly connected to values on the Murphy diagram. While the methods are illustrated using thunderstorm forecasts, they are applicable for evaluating probabilistic forecasts for any situation with binary outcomes. Significance Statement Recently, several papers have presented verification results for probabilistic forecasts using so-called categorical performance diagrams, which summarize multiple verification metrics. While categorical performance diagrams measure discrimination ability, we demonstrate how they can potentially lead to incorrect conclusions when evaluating overall predictive performance of probabilistic forecasts. By reviewing recent advances in the statistical literature, we show a comprehensive approach for the meteorological community that (i) does not reward a forecaster who “hedges” their forecast, (ii) focuses on the importance of the forecast user’s decision threshold(s), and (iii) provides actionable insights. Additionally, we present an approach for fairly comparing the skill of categorical forecasts to probabilistic forecasts.

An attention-based teacher-student model for multivariate short-term landslide displacement prediction incorporating weather forecast data

An attention-based teacher-student model for multivariate short-term landslide displacement prediction incorporating weather forecast data

Improving inland precipitation forecast in China through data assimilation of microwave temperature sounding data from a three‐orbit constellation

AbstractMicrowave temperature sounders onboard polar‐orbiting satellites can provide global observation data twice a day, supplying a large amount of temperature information for global data assimilation and serving as a crucial instrument to improve operational numerical forecasts. However, regional numerical forecasts are still subject to a lack of polar‐orbiting satellite data within regional model domains, and even multiple polar‐orbiting satellites may simultaneously miss measurements. Establishing a three‐orbit observation system of polar‐orbiting satellites is crucial to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of polar‐orbiting satellite data. In this study, we investigate the impact of assimilating microwave temperature sounding data from a three‐orbit constellation on precipitation forecasts in inland China based on the data from the US afternoon‐orbit satellite NOAA‐19, the European morning‐orbit satellite Meteorological Operational satellite‐A and the Chinese early‐morning‐orbit satellite Fengyun‐3E (FY‐3E) launched recently. The research results indicate that there are data gaps at 0600 and 1800 UTC in the East Asian region only for the morning‐orbit and afternoon‐orbit satellite observations. The FY‐3E satellite can provide additional microwave temperature sounding observations over the eastern region of China, thus partially compensating for the gap in polar‐orbiting satellite data in China. Moreover, the additional assimilation of the FY‐3E data can further improve numerical forecasts, effectively adjusting the spatial structure and eastward movement of the weather system, thereby considerably increasing the prediction accuracy of rainfall location and intensity. Rolling‐prediction results show that the data from the three‐orbit constellation provide a stable and notable improvement in precipitation forecasts in inland China, especially for forecasts longer than nine hours and amounts of rainfall below 10 mm. These research findings provide valuable insights for optimizing the assimilation application of polar‐orbiting satellite data in regional numerical forecasts.

Indication for Biases in Dry Intrusions and the Marine Boundary Layer Over the Azores in ECMWF Short‐Term Forecasts and Analyses

AbstractThe model representation of dry intrusions (DIs) and the marine boundary layer (MBL) is analyzed in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). For this purpose, a DI classification at the Azores is combined with observation, short‐term background forecast and analysis data from the IFS data assimilation system. The background exhibits a cold bias in the descending DI, which is possibly related to a cold bias in the MBL below through vertical mixing. At the surface, simulated wind speeds are underestimated and directions are veered compared to the observations. The errors are reduced in the analysis except for near‐surface wind and humidity biases. We hypothesize that these biases are connected through underestimated surface latent heat fluxes. Such persistent biases potentially influence local weather and midlatitude weather evolution as cyclones are supplied with moisture from the cold sector influenced by DIs.

Investment Advice of Dialysis Companies: Whats the Trend of the Industry?

The global dialysis market is continuing expanding in the recent years and dialysis industry has expected investment prospects. This study presents a comprehensive investment analysis framework comparing four top companies in the kidney care and dialysis service industry. This article aims help investor choose the most suitable company among them with the highest investment value to invest in. The study uses official financial data from Nasdaq from 2023 and forecast data from estimates of 2024 of 4 dialysis companies on the waiting list. By analyzing and comparing the financial statements of four companies, the asset investment potential and growth rate of the four companies were determined. Results demonstrate that the company DaVita rank as the most appealing investment option out of four companies, followed by Medtronic, Baxter and Fresenius. Based on financial statements, DaVita is attractive with highest expected growth rates in EPS and gross revenue, PEG ratio, and relatively high annual and quarterly gross margin.