Natural Forces Research Articles

Multimodel regional frequency analysis of CMIP extreme precipitation

Abstract A recurrent question in climate risk analysis is determining how climate change will affect
heavy precipitation patterns.
Dividing the globe into homogeneous sub-regions should improve the modeling of heavy precipitation by inferring common regional distributional parameters.
In addition, biases due to model errors in global climate models (GCMs) should be considered to understand the climate response to diffrent forcing effects.
Within this context, we propose an efficient clustering algorithm that, compared to classical regional frequency analysis (RFA) techniques, is covariate-free and accounts for dependence.
It is based on a new non-parametric dissimilarity that combines both the RFA constraint and the pairwise dependence.
We derive asymptotic properties of our dissimilarity estimator, and we interpret it for generalized extreme value distributed pairs.

As an application, we cluster annual daily precipitation maxima of 16 GCMs from the coupled model intercomparison project.
We combine the climatologically consistent subregions identified for all GCMs.
This improves the spatial clusters coherence and outperforms methods either based on margins or on dependence.
Finally, by comparing the natural forcings partition with the one with all forcings, we assess the impact of anthropogenic forcing on precipitation extreme patterns.

Aristotle and the Ends of Eros, or Aristotle’s Erotic Sublime?

Abstract While Eros has a central philosophical function in the dialogues of Plato, it all but disappears as a philosophical term in the thought of Aristotle, and is replaced by the more rational and reciprocal relation of friendship, φιλία. This essay asks what becomes of Eros in Aristotle’s thinking, whether as deity, natural or cosmic force, or mode of human relation. Drawing on the ancient epithet of Eros, Ἔρως λυσιµελής, unbinder of limbs, Aristotle’s usages of both ἔρως and λύσις (loosening, unbinding), respectively are traced in their ambivalence for his fundamentally organismic philosophy, insofar as they disturb the organism’s ontological integrity. With the assistance of Kristeva’s notion of the abject, it is argued that while Aristotle’s overt stance is a polemic against eros, his principal metaphysical innovations – the recasting of ἀρχή as divine τέλος, and the separation of material and moving causes – are solutions (λύσεις) to aporias that may involve a traversal of the sublime that is also irreducibly corporeal and erotic.

Rapid sloshing-free transport of liquids in arbitrarily shaped containers

AbstractWe present a model-based feedforward control strategy suitable for designing swift rest-to-rest maneuvers for liquids in arbitrarily shaped containers. We employ the commonly used equivalent pendulum model to represent the sloshing dynamics and suggest a novel parameter identification scheme suitable for arbitrary container shapes and any number of sloshing modes. By computing natural modes and fluid reaction forces and torques for imposed harmonic container motions via a finite element model, we obtain data for the identification scheme. A fitting procedure then yields highly accurate parameters for a physical pendulum model, where each pendulum represents one sloshing mode. We also provide a thorough analysis of parameter identifiability and guidelines for obtaining robust parameter estimates. The proposed feedforward control method uses a virtual tray pendulum on which we place the container (in the form of its equivalent pendulum model). Designing the virtual tray such that the fluid’s dominant sloshing mode cannot be excited by horizontally moving the tray pendulum pivot effectively zeros out any sloshing motion in this mode. We then exploit the flatness property of the resulting system to design rest-to-rest maneuvers where any residual sloshing motion (in higher modes) can be exactly stopped at the end of the maneuver. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive simulations and experimental results using a Martini cocktail glass, whose shape is challenging in terms of sloshing. The experimental results show the successful, accurate suppression of sloshing, validating the efficacy of the proposed concept.

Influence of Natural External Forcings on Interdecadal Variation of Global Land Monsoon over the Last Millennium in CESM-LME

Abstract Interdecadal variations of the global land monsoon have been previously attributed to internal fluctuations of the climate system, but the role of natural external forcings was underexplored. Here, we investigate this issue by using the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations over the last millennium (LM) (AD 950–1850). Our analysis reveals that the surface temperature, with two dominant structures (global cooling/warming and longitudinal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific, which affects the Walker circulation), predominantly shapes the leading forced mode of the global land monsoon. This mode, representing 19% of the total variance, manifests as consistent features across South Asia, the southern part of East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa, contrasting with other monsoon regions. Under global cooling conditions, the monsoon intensity is enhanced in the northern parts of the East Asian and eastern parts of the North and South African monsoons, but it decreases in the other monsoon regions. Under weak Walker circulation conditions, changes in atmospheric circulation in response to the sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific are associated with a substantial attenuation of almost all land monsoon regions. It was further shown that the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient jointly account for 75% of the total variance in the leading mode of the global land monsoon, with 29% and 46% as their respective contributions. Furthermore, our results suggest that volcanic eruptions are the dominant external forcing for these variations. These findings provide valuable insights for future research on global monsoon dynamics. Significance Statement Our study using the Community Earth System Model reveals that surface temperature significantly impacts decadal global land monsoon (GLM) variations during the last millennium. Two key factors in relation to global-scale cooling/warming and changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient affect the GLM’s leading forced mode. The leading forced GLM features remain consistent across regions like South Asia, southern East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa. Under global cooling, monsoon intensities in most land monsoon regions are enhanced, while they are reduced in northern East Asian land monsoon regions. In contrast, weak tropical Pacific temperature gradient conditions cause a decrease in intensities in almost all land monsoon regions. Additionally, the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient account for 75% of the total variance in the leading forced GLM variations, contributing 29% and 46%, respectively. Notably, volcanic eruptions emerge as the key external factor influencing these variations.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and transformation of the Parana State coastline: A 34-year analysis using RS, GIS, and machine learning

The coastal zone is a critical and vibrant area within coastal cities. Analyzing the changes in the coastal zone of Parana State helps determine the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving forces of this region, providing guidance for resource protection and utilization. This study employs remote sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS), and Machine Learning techniques, using Landsat data sets with eight distinct scenes from 1990 to 2024, to extract and analyze the coastline. Specifically, methodologies such as Shoreline Extraction, the Coastline Diversity Index (CDI), and the Coastline Utilization Index (CUI) were applied to assess the coastline's characteristics. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the coastline development in Parana are meticulously examined to ensure accuracy. The findings reveal that: 1) Over the past 34 years, the coastline of Parana State has shown a consistent increasing trend. Natural coastlines have been declining by 45% annually, while artificial coastlines have been increasing by approximately 55% annually. 2) The nature of the shoreline is transitioning from natural to sea-reclamation, engineering-enhanced, and degraded forest. 3) The coastline changes have occurred in three phases: The Built-up Land phase, the Port Petrochemical phase, and the Reducing Coastal Erosion phase. Significant shoreline extension is observed near both biological and ecological coasts. 4) The primary factors influencing the coastline alterations in Parana State include natural forces, human activities, and regional policies. These insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Parana coastline can inform better coastal management and conservation strategies.

Advanced understanding of the natural forces accelerating aging and release of black microplastics (tire wear particles) based on mechanism and toxicity analysis

Currently, tire wear particles (TWPs), a typical type of black microplastics (MPs), are frequently overlooked as the major source of MPs in aquatic environments. TWPs are widely distributed and exhibit complex environmental behaviors. However, how natural forces affect the aging and release behavior of TWPs at the nano(micro)scale remains inadequately explored. This study systematically investigated the aging behavior and mechanism of TWPs under the action of simulated natural light and high-temperature in both dry and wet environments, as well as the effect of aging treatment on the released leachate. The findings demonstrated that aging treatment significantly altered the physicochemical properties of TWPs, including chain scission and surface oxidation, and facilitated the release of heavy metals and organic additives in the meantime. In particular, the leaching concentration of Zn exhibited a positive linear relationship with exposure time. In the thermal-aging process, the oxidation of TWPs was primarily caused by superoxide anion (O2•−). During the photo-aging exposure, TWPs exhibited heightened electron-donating capacity, resulting in the formation of more O2•− and singlet oxygen (1O2) to attack TWPs. Moreover, the analysis of leachate produced under light and high-temperature conditions suggested that heavy metals exerted low ecological risks in water. Nonetheless, the photo-aging process enhanced the toxicity of released leachate to L929 cells, which could be attributed to highly toxic additive transformation products (such as HMMM-411 and 6PPD-Q) and more heavy metals. These findings shed light on the fate of TWPs and the ecological risks posed by aged TWPs in aquatic environments.

Secular dynamics and the lifetimes of lunar artificial satellites under natural force-driven orbital evolution

In this paper, we study the long-term (time scale of several years) orbital evolution of lunar satellites under the sole action of natural forces. In particular, we focus on secular resonances, caused either by the influence of the multipole moments of the lunar potential and/or by the Earth’s and Sun’s third-body effect on the satellite’s long-term orbital evolution. Our study is based on a simplified secular model obtained in ‘closed form’, i.e., without expansions in the satellite’s orbital eccentricity. Contrary to the case of artificial Earth satellites, in which many secular resonances compete in dynamical impact, we give numerical evidence that for lunar satellites only the 2g−resonance (ω̇=0) affects significantly the orbits at secular timescales. We interpret this as a consequence of the strong effect of lunar mascons. We show that the lifetime of lunar satellites is, in particular, nearly exclusively dictated by the 2g resonance. By deriving a simple analytic model, we propose a theoretical framework which allows for both qualitative and quantitative interpretation of the structures seen in numerically obtained lifetime maps. This involves explaining the main mechanisms driving eccentricity growth in the orbits of lunar satellites. In fact, we argue that the re-entry process for lunar satellites is not necessarily a chaotic process (as is the case for Earth satellites), but rather due to a sequence of bifurcations leading to a dramatic variation in the structure of the separatrices in the 2g resonance’s phase portrait, as we move from the lowest to the highest limit in inclination (at each altitude) where the 2g resonance is manifested.

CONCEPTUAL METAPHORS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND AI DEVELOPMENT IN THE GUARDIAN NEWSPAPER

The whirlwind advent of ChatGPT in 2022 has marked a new age of artificial intelligence (AI), the general name for the technology that combines computer technology, big data bases and machines. This AI technology quickly makes its presence felt with hundreds of popular programs and chatbots such as the portrait-making AI diffusion art and the thesis-writing ChatGPT. This paper investigates the conceptual metaphors representing AI and AI development in The Guardian, a UK-based newspaper, to figure out how this technology and its growth have been introduced to ordinary people via mass media. Employing the Conceptual Metaphor Theory proposed by Lakoff & Johnson (1980), this study found three AI-related conceptual metaphors, namely, AI IS A HUMAN BEING, AI IS AN ANIMAL and AI IS A NATURAL FORCE, which are realized by more than 100 linguistic expressions across 33 news articles. Also, this research found five conceptual metaphors related to AI development, namely AI DEVELOPMENT IS WAR, AI DEVELOPMENT IS A RACE, AI DEVELOPMENT IS A CONVERSATION, AI DEVELOPMENT IS A DANCE, AI DEVELOPMENT IS A GAME and these metaphors are manifested by approximately 40 linguistic expressions. This paper discusses the way that these metaphors could influence the way people and technology companies think about AI and AI development.

A Review on Conservational Methodologies of Tangible Cultural Artifacts from Environmental Corrosion

Tangible cultural heritage are invaluable assets inherited from our ancestors, encompassing transformative skills, culture, tradition, knowledge and practice, passed down by generations to generation. It is sad to say that, these assets are at brink of deterioration, and vandalism from both pernicious natural forces and relentless time laps. There is an urgent need of preserving and carefully transferring these treasures to the future generations. The main objective of our study is to provide basic knowledge for the conservation of cultural artifacts. With this investigation, we lay stress on the significance of cultural artifacts, delve the factors influencing corrosion, talk about cleaning methods and stressing the use of inhibitor or protective coating to shield them from further decay. Our study emphasizes the urgent need of development of new methodologies and strategies to safeguard these assets from ruinous events. In addition, it also present ongoing efforts applied in transmission and preservation of these metallic artifacts in their original form.

Технология получения вакуумных ионно-плазменных износостойких покрытий

A review of the technologies of vacuum ion plasma (VIP) coating spraying based on the reasonability of science intensity, its criteria and evaluation methods is carried out. The technological features of producing VIP coatings are viewed with the emphasis on the process of coating formation on a substrate, which occurs under the impact of the most powerful forces in nature, i.e. these are forces of interatomic interaction. This leads to a very high level of cohesive strength of the coatings, which results in wear resistance and corrosion resistance. This leads to a very high level of cohesive strength of the coatings, succeeding in wear and corrosion resistance. Methods of research, diagnosis and testing of VIP coatings, due to the peculiarities of their structure and properties, include, as a rule, equipment and techniques of leading world manufacturers in the field of electron microscopy, microrentgen spectral analysis, diffraction analysis, X-ray photoelectron spectrometry, continuous and dynamic indentation, bench testing of unique properties. With respect to scientific and practical activities of the authors, examples of coatings of various nature (nitride, carbon, metalloceramic), different architectures (monolayer – single-phase, multilayer – 2D composites, dispersed – 3D composites) and various applications (wear–resistant, tribotechnical, antierosion, thermal barrier) are given. In particular, some types of nitride coatings TiN, TiAlN, CrAlSiN, which are characterized by high hardness H  24 GPa and abrasive wear resistance, are in the focus. However, in conditions of relatively smooth sliding friction, only the multiphase nanostructured CrAlSiN coating retains wear resistance. In conditions of drop-impact erosion, nanocompositional multilayer VIP coatings of TiN/MoN composition demonstrate the highest resistance, which compete with the recognized champion in this field - welded plates of stellite VZK (WCoCr). Despite the fact that the thickness of the VIP coatings viewed in the paper is a film of 1...10 microns, whereas the stellite plates have a thickness of at least 4 mm. In conclusion, it is noted that VIP technology continues to develop new materials, for example, to create diamond-like coatings or coatings made of high-entropy alloys. VIP technology corresponds to a high level of science intensity, and VIP coatings are promising for putting to use in mechanical engineering.

Changes caused by human activities in the high health-risk hot-dry and hot-wet events in China

Compound heat anomalies associated with humidity, such as compound hot-dry events and hot-wet events, pose greater health risks than single heat anomalies. Here, we utilize ambulance dispatch data along with air temperature and relative humidity to study human impacts on these events in China. We show that relying solely on temperature without considering humidity may underestimate the health risks of these events on populations. Over the past 40 years, anthropogenic activities have increased hot-dry events by 2.34 times and decreased hot-wet events by 0.63 times, especially in the Yangtze River region, compared to natural forcing. We also speculate that, in the future up to 2060, under the carbon-neutral scenario, the frequencies of high health-risk hot-dry events and hot-wet events caused by human activities can be reduced by one-half and over one-fifth, respectively, compared to the high-emissions scenario. These findings provide guidance for assessing health risks under global warming.

Description of nature and ecological phenomena in William Faulkner's works

This article explores the depiction of nature and ecological phenomena in the works of William Faulkner, focusing on how his literary landscapes reflect the complex relationship between humanity and the environment. Through a detailed analysis of Faulkner’s portrayal of wild, untamed forests and the inherent struggle for survival, the study examines the philosophical underpinnings of his narratives. Faulkner’s works, particularly his stories "The Old Man" and "The Bear" from Go Down, Moses, illustrate the tension between civilization and the primal forces of nature. These stories highlight the existential challenges faced by humans as they navigate the boundaries between societal expectations and natural instincts. By employing various literary devices, Faulkner crafts a vivid ecological dialogue that underscores the inevitable clash between progress and the preservation of the natural world. This analysis contributes to the broader discourse on environmental literature, emphasizing Faulkner's relevance in contemporary discussions on ecological awareness and cultural identity.

Development of a scale for measuring psychosocial vulnerability in disaster-prone areas

IntroductionDisaster vulnerability is a complex concept influenced by both natural forces and societal factors, including psychosocial aspects that shape an individual's resilience to natural hazards. Despite technological advancements, assessing psychosocial vulnerability remains challenging, necessitating specialized scales. This study attempted to develop a psychosocial vulnerability assessment scale, recognizing the intricate interplay of physical, psychological, and social factors. MethodsThe study was conducted in two disaster-prone wards in Cuttack, India, susceptible to cyclones, earthquakes, and floods. The scale development process involved two stages: instrument design and judgmental evidence. During the instrument design phase, qualitative data on psychosocial vulnerabilities were gathered through Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). These insights led to the generation of 44 items, which were subsequently refined to 35 items through expert consultation. The judgmental evidence phase included content validity assessment, internal consistency analysis, and test-retest reliability estimation. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) identified the instrument's factor structure, with items retaining factor loadings exceeding 0.4. Data collection involved 400 individuals selected through multistage sampling, with strict adherence to ethical considerations. ResultData collected in the initial instrument design stage revealed key psychosocial vulnerability themes. These themes informed the creation of a 35-item scale categorized into three domains: Physical, social, and psychological vulnerability. The instrument underwent rigorous validation processes, demonstrating strong content validity agreement among experts. Internal consistency analysis revealed good reliability, as indicated by the Kuder-Richardson coefficient (KR20 = 0.904). Test-retest reliability further established the stability of responses over time, with an ICC of 0.82. EFA confirmed the scale's three-factor structure, explaining 60 % of the variance. After removing three items with low factor loadings, the scale proved reliable and valid, effectively categorizing vulnerabilities into these distinct domains. ConclusionThe scale developed in this study offers a comprehensive tool for understanding the unique challenges people living in disaster-prone areas face. It addresses the often-overlooked psychosocial components of vulnerability, filling a critical gap in existing research and measurement scales. Its application helps in planning psychosocial interventions and improving disaster risk reduction strategies.

A Narrowing Place: Responsive Spirituality

Among the many distinct experiences of cancer is the experience of the parent who watches their child become pale and drained of energy in the weeks preceding diagnosis. The journey from there to the oncology ward is one that can be adequately described as increasingly claustrophobic. It is all one-way traffic from flourishing life to the abyss. Perhaps being a parent makes one even more prone to the universal human tendency to find fault with oneself where there is only the blind force of nature at work. Whatever dark alleyway that self-destructive sentiment emerges from to ambush the optimist, it is certainly an effective hiding place from which to cause them to stumble. The child slips inexorably out of the parent’s grasp. The notion of parental protection is no haven. Yet the blindness of nature unwittingly tips the scales. In the narrowest of narrow places, the human organism responds with homeostatic resilience. Whether death is near or far in this place is unknown. In the moment of constriction, however, the child and its parent respond with that most irreducible of passions, the will to live. The human spirit emerges.

Factors Determining the Risks of an Insurance Contract

The process of public production is interrupted or disrupted as a result of the destructive action of natural forces or as a result of various negative situations. The creation of such undesirable situations is a regular process and is connected with the contradictory nature of public production. The risk indicators should also be discussed. In order to overcome the existing negative situations, as well as to provide unconditional compensation for the caused damage, insurance certainly plays a crucial role. Insurance expresses what kind of economic relations act as economic categories. The essence of the insurance is that the damage will be distributed among many insurers, and their contribution will be relatively small for each of them. Moreover, Insurance is a set of economic relations between its participants, caused by the formation of a target insurance fund and its use in order to cover losses and pay insurance sums. Insurance risk lies in the basis of insurance. Keywords: Economic relationship, insurance amount, insurance payment, insurance rate.

Investigating Holocene relative sea-level changes and coastal dynamics in the mid-Tyrrhenian coast, Italy: An interdisciplinary study

Understanding millennial changes in relative sea level (RSL) and coastal responses in stable regions is crucial for deciphering the intricate relationship between natural dynamics and human adaptation. This interdisciplinary study explores the interplay between mid-to-Late Holocene sea-level fluctuations and tectonic along the mid-Tyrrhenian coast.The study area, located between the Fondi and Garigliano coastal plains, held great significance in ancient times. In particular, the strategic role of Formia, a monitoring point for the Tyrrhenian Sea, made this city one of the most important commercial hub during Roman occupation, leading to a significant urbanization of the coastal stretch testified by well-preserved remains nowadays scattered along the submerged or semi-submerged coastal sectors.This study reconstructs the mid-to-Late Holocene morpho-evolution and RSL changes in the study area by creating a geodatabase made of 52 sea-level markers (SLMs) derived from direct geoarchaeological measurements, stratigraphic and palaeoecological interpretations of new borehole data, and previously published stratigraphic data. Specifically, the radiocarbon dating of three peat samples provided new data ranging between 7.62 ± 47 and 1.00 ± 51 ka BP on the sea level history in the area. Based on our dataset, between 9.0 and 8.0 ka BP, the sea level rose from −19 m to −6.5 m at a rate of about 15.6 mm/y, slowing to 0.8 mm/y afterwards, stabilizing at its current position. Results suggest that during the 1st century BC, local sea level was no higher than −0.55 ± 0.29 m.The collected RSL data support the hypothesis of tectonic stability of this sector during the last 2.0 ka, testified by the position of the SLMs in accordance with the glacio-hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models and supported by the determination of average vertical ground movement rates of −0.017 ± 0.23 mm/y.Finally, in terms of coastal changes the overlay between new data from geoarchaeological surveys, reinterpretation of previously-published stratigraphic data, and geomorphological analysis allowed us to deduce a general coastal progradation trend in the historical time for both low-lying and rocky sectors, due to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors.

The HadGEM3‐GC3.1 Contribution to the CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project

AbstractThe UK contribution to the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), part of the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is described. The lower atmosphere and ocean resolution configuration of the latest Hadley Centre global environmental model, HadGEM3‐GC3.1, is used to create simulations driven either with historical changes in anthropogenic well‐mixed greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, or natural climate factors. Global mean near‐surface air temperatures from the HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL simulations are consistent with CMIP6 model ensembles for the equivalent experiments. While the HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcing factors capture the overall observed warming, the lack of marked simulated warming until the 1990s is diagnosed as due to aerosol cooling mostly offsetting the well‐mixed greenhouse gas warming until then. The model has unusual temperature variability over the Southern Ocean related to occasional deep convection bringing heat to the surface. This is most prominent in the model's aerosol only simulations, which have the curious feature of warming in the high southern latitudes, while the rest of the globe cools, a behavior not seen in other CMIP6 models. This has implications for studies that assume model responses, from different climate drivers, can be linearly combined. While DAMIP was predominantly designed for detection and attribution studies, the experiments are also very valuable for understanding how different climate drivers influence a model, and thus for interpretating the responses of combined anthropogenic and natural driven simulations. We recommend institutions provide model simulations for the high priority DAMIP experiments.

Economic paradigms, public ethics, socio-economic institutions: dynamics and relationships

The article studies the relationship between ethics and economics in the context of current system’s functioning of the most important social institutions. The purpose of the study is to theoretically analyze the relation between the economic and ethical structure of society and to develop recommendations for the practical application of the results ща designing a strategy for the country's socio-economic development. The research is based on the principles of the systems approach, space-time analysis and the methodology of systemic socio-economic theory. The structure of economic paradigms is compared to the structure of ethical paradigms. The conclusion is made about their mutual conditionality and influence on the type of social structure. The dual nature of the relationship between economics and ethics is substantiated. This duality is manifested in the separation of the subject of economics and ethics in systemic terms: if the economic subjects are the processes aimed at mastering the forces of nature, then the subjects of ethics are the processes aimed at improving the system of intra-societal relations. Economics in society is comprehensive, while ethics has the property of widespread penetration into the consciousness of economic subjects. The economic and ethical spheres all together determine the structure and functions of socio-economic space-time. Strengthening the institution of reputation contributes to the dissemination and consolidation of traditional values and raising the ethical level of society. It is necessary to represent it in the strategy of the country's socio-economic development along with target guidelines for economic dynamics, as well as the desired state of the spiritual sphere of the population and generally accepted principles of ethical behavior. The possibilities of applying ethical principles in solving the problems of location and development of productive forces in the country are explored.

Exploring Factors Influencing the Internal Displacement Decisions Amidst Natural Disasters in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a densely populated country in the world’s largest coastal delta, is seriously threatened by the ongoing onslaught of major natural disasters brought on by climate change. The main perpetrators, cyclonic storms and floods cause millions of displaced people each year and increase the vulnerability of communities already facing devastation from the environment and poverty due to these disasters. This study explores the complex patterns of internal displacement brought on by cyclonic storms and floods in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2022. The study identifies the patterns, trends, vulnerable districts, and influencing factors of displacement by analysing data from multiple sources. Every year, an average of 6.14 million people are displaced by floods, a persistent problem. Gaibandha is the district most at risk, having seen 13 floods in the previous 15 years. Throughout the study period, Bhola experienced eight strikes from cyclonic storms that decimated the southern coast. These natural disasters force people to move from environmentally susceptible to safe areas. The disaster’s intensity or frequency and some economic, social, and political factors influence this decision to displace. The study also identifies factors that influence displacement decisions after catastrophic disasters. Additionally, it emphasises the importance of understanding displacement patterns and influencing factors to make informed decisions about displacement in such situations.

Study on long term troposphere lower stratosphere temperature (TLST) trend in tropical and subtropical northern hemisphere using ground based and COSMIC satellite data

The troposphere, the lowest and closest layer of the atmosphere, is where all meteorological events take place. The tropospheric — lower stratospheric (TLS) temperature trend is determined using linear regression and is essential to comprehending the consequences of climate change in the future. In this article, we explored the long-term temperature variabilities and trends of TLS (1–25 km) temperature and its responses by natural drivers such as El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), solar flux (SF), quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), Indian ocean dipole (IOD), and aerosol indexes (AI) using monthly averaged zonal mean COSMIC satellite and ground — based Radiosonde (RS) observations for the period of 2006 – 2020 over tropical station Addis (90 N, 38.80 E) and subtropical station Cairo (30.030 N, 31.230 E). The tropopause is located at the tropical station Addis at 17 km with a temperature of 190–194 K, and for the subtropical station Cairo, it is located at 15 km with a temperature of 201 K, which supports the decrement of tropopause height from the tropics to the subtropics with a slight increase in temperature. The two main oscillations in the TLS region can be seen by using the wavelet analysis technique: the semiannual oscillation (SAO) and the annual oscillation (AO), with the AO being especially strong in the lower troposphere. Furthermore, Morlet wavelet analysis on cold-point tropopause temperature CPTt displays AO and cold point tropopause height CPTh reveals a QBO-like signal. The TLS region has positive peaks at heights of 7, 21, 22, 13, and 4 km for the Addis station, and at 15, 19, 25, 15, and 16 km for the Cairo station in response to natural drivers such as ENSO, SF, QBO, IOD, and aerosol. Lag analyses demonstrate a one-month delay for all natural forcings, except for oceanic indices and SSF, up to three months below the tropopause (below 15 km). There is a noticeable 3 to 4 months lag in every oscillation above the tropopause. A warming trend in the tropospheric region and a cooling trend in the UTLS regions are revealed by MLR trend analysis. In contrast to the subtropical Cairo station, which has the highest warming rate of 0.38 K/decade at 2 km and the maximum cooling rate of −0.2 K/decade at 10 km, the tropical Addis station has the highest cooling rate of −0.38 K/decade at 12 km and the highest warming rate of 0.28 K/decade at 3 km. Our trend findings are consistent with previous research.