Natural Forces Research Articles

New in assessing the fire resistance of reconstructed reinforced concrete ribbed building panel

The article describes the innovative application of a methodology for assessing the design fire resistance of a reconstructed reinforced concrete ribbed floor panel based on the criterion of the occurrence of a limit state based on loss of load-bearing capacity. In this case, the fire resistance limit of a bending element is established without thermal force destruction based on a set of single quality indicators of structural concrete and reinforcing steel, which simplifies engineering calculations and reduces the cost of expensive experiments. The results of a study of the influence of the geometric dimensions of a reconstructed reinforced concrete ribbed panel, the heating scheme of the design section in fire conditions, the placement of the main and additional reinforcement in the design section, the depth of the cores of the main and additional reinforcement and the degree of its fire protection, the thermal diffusion coefficient of structural concrete, the magnitude of the test load on the panel are presented. and the intensity of stress in the rods of longitudinal working reinforcement to the design fire resistance indicator, which is established based on the loss of load-bearing capacity. The use of the new proposed technical solution makes it possible to determine the design fire resistance of a reconstructed reinforced concrete ribbed panel without natural thermal force effects, simplifies engineering calculations, increases the reliability of statistical quality control of reinforced concrete materials and non-destructive tests, and reduces experimental costs.

Reconnoitering the Core Parallels Concerning the Perception of Divinity and Eastern Ethics among Taoism , Buddhism and Hinduism

This research aims to explore the idea of divinity in eastern religions, including Taoism, Hinduism, and so on, and then find commonalities between these religions and this notion. This essay seeks to understand why Eastern traditions deviated from the worship of God and how their conception of divinity came to be. This research is significant because it sheds light on the prevalent beliefs in China and India, which include the worship of ancestors who are fathers and grandfathers, the sanctification of natural forces, the belief in the plurality of deities, and the practice of spiritual worship to achieve the state of union with God. The purpose of this study is to provide answers to the following questions: Is the eastern conception of divinity unified? The research relied on the mother of all texts of eastern beliefs, the Tao, and employed both the inductive and the deductive methods. The study's most significant conclusions are that belief in the monotheistic concept of deity is not the foundation of the ethical and philosophical eastern religions that are most prevalent in China and India. The study also revealed that Eastern beliefs met a plurality of gods, and that people gradually went through stages in their quest to find the god who best suited their needs. They also practiced magic, sorcery, astrology, and other forms of polytheism, as well as worshiping the forces of nature, totems, and humans.

Wilde Jagd, Ostwind, Westwind, himmlisches Kind

Abstract Winds are fascinating forces of nature, awe-inspiring and devastating when they appear as storms, and therefore a powerful theme in religion, literature and narrative, in music and the arts. Greek-Roman Antiquity personified the winds as nature deities, bearing resemblance to the angels and often represented as embodiments of forceful and tyrannic masculinity. These classical traditions are reflected in their own ways in the visual arts since the Renaissance. In legend and literature from the Middle Ages up to our times, however, winds and storms seem to be preponderantly allied to the dark forces of evil, the devil, wizards and witches, the Wild Hunter, whereas in folktales, the unruly winds appear mostly as helper figures, creating often moments of extraordinary fun.

Dominant drivers of vegetation changes in key ecological barrier of northeastern Tibetan Plateau since 2000: Human impacts or natural forces?

Human activities and natural forces have profoundly influenced vegetation ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau over the recent decades. However, contributions of these two driving forces to vegetation changes remain controversial, especially in the ecological barriers like the Qilian Mountains (QM) in the northeast where many protecting measures and strategies were applied to enhance ecosystem stability and services. Our study employed a process-based model and a multi-perspective assessment method to determine dominant drivers of vegetation changes in the QM since 2000. The result indicated that human activity changes contributed 40.74% to the significant vegetation amelioration of the QM as a whole, which is comparable to natural forces. Areas dominated by human activity changes accounted for 18.42% of the entire region, which were mainly distributed in grassland restoration area, oasis agricultural area and forestry protection area. In these areas, increased human activities (including desertified grassland restoration, agricultural irrigation and fertilization, forest protections and afforestation) mainly promoted the vegetation amelioration. Yet, natural forces resulted in amelioration in partial alpine grasslands in southeastern QM, accounting for 10.53% in area. Areas dominated by both human activity changes and natural forces, mainly in grazing grasslands, accounted for 47.80%. Variations in grazing intensity and climate jointly determined fluctuations in vegetation therein. Additionally, there remained 23.25% areas lack of obvious drivers, generally with sparse vegetation. Ecological protections and agricultural measures significantly promoted the vegetation amelioration of the QM since 2000. The findings could provide essential insights for protection and construction of the ecological barriers in the Tibetan Plateau.

Ecosystem damage by increasing tropical cyclones

Climate change is driving an ongoing increase in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. While global economic losses are projected to double by 2100, there are no comparable predictions for TC impacts to coastal ecosystems that protect and sustain human lives and livelihoods. Here, rising North Atlantic TC (NATC) activity from 1970 to 2019, influenced by anthropogenic and natural climate forcing, is used to study the ecosystem impacts of intensifying TCs, potentially indicative of broader future climate change scenarios. Analysis of 97 NATC landfalls revealed 891 immediate post-storm impacts on ecosystems, with particularly detrimental effects on mangrove forests. Specifically, NATCs reduced the performance of individual species. Additionally, they altered community structure and processes through impacts on foundation species and their associated organisms. The severity of impacts was directly correlated with NATC landfall intensity (wind speed) for mangroves, whereas changes to waves, surge, sediments, and salinity caused most impacts on coral reefs, salt marshes, seagrass meadows, and oyster reefs (respectively), indicating complex intensity-damage interactions for many ecosystems. The analyses also revealed a positive correlation between very intense NATC activity and ecosystem damages. The research highlights a concerning trend of escalating impacts on coastal ecosystems under rising storm intensities, with the potential to challenge ecosystem resilience.

Implications of Tarski's undefinability theorem on the Theory of Everything

The Theory of Everything seeks to unify all fundamental forces of nature, including quantum gravity, into a single theoretical framework. This theory would be defined internally using a set of axioms, and this paper proposes a set of axioms for any such theory. Furthermore, for such a theory, all scientific truth would be defined internally as consequences derivable from the rules of such a theory. This paper then examines the implications of Tarski's undefinability theorem on scientific truths derived from such axioms. We demonstrate that Tarski's theorem imposes limitations on any such formal system . However, we also argue that the Lucas-Penrose argument suggests that non-algorithmic understanding can transcend these formal limitations.

Beach Area Changes and Resilience of the Eastern Coasts Before and After Typhoon Goni

<i>Due to climate change, waves have become increasingly stronger, making the analysis of beach changes before and after typhoons crucial for addressing beach erosion. This study utilized low-cost, high-efficiency video monitoring to analyze beach changes at 14 locations along Korea's east coast before and after typhoon impacts. Shorelines were extracted from 180 s average orthoimages using the Pixel Intensity Moving Average Extraction technique, and beach areas were calculated. The study focused on the recovery period following typhoon-induced erosion. During Typhoon Goni (2015), erosion reached up to 38% at Bongpo Beach, with a maximum affected area of 7,741 m<sup>2</sup> at Goraebul Beach. Post-typhoon recovery exceeded 89%, with most beaches returning to pre-typhoon conditions. The erosion period averaged 7 d, while recovery took approximately 27 d. Erosion was significantly influenced by natural forces such as waves, tides, and wind. The erosion period showed minimal correlation with wave energy, whereas the recovery period exhibited some correlation. Further long-term analysis, incorporating additional wave data and typhoon impact periods, is needed. Future research will aim to collect extensive typhoon data to systematically analyze erosion and recovery cycles in relation to external forces.</i>

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE USE OF HEALTH-SAVING TECHNOLOGIES IN PRIMARY SCHOOL

The article substantiates the theoretical foundations of the development of health-saving technologies in primary school. Methods of research: analysis of scientific and methodological literature to identify the state of research in Ukrainian pedagogical science and the peculiarities of health-saving competences of primary school students; systematisation for the arrangement of groups of tasks and health-saving technologies; generalisation for the formulation of conclusions; prognostic to determine the prospects for the development of health-saving technologies in primary school. The key health-promoting competences that primary school students should have are the following: rational nutrition skills; physical activity and hardening skills; sanitary and hygiene skills; skills of organising work and rest regimes; self-control skills; skills of motivating success and training the will; stress management skills; effective communication skills; conflict prevention skills; compassion (empathy) skills; skills of behavior under pressure; cooperation skills; skills of self-awareness and self-esteem. The principles of application of health-saving technologies in primary school are systematised: motivational support of the educational process, cooperation, individualisation and differentiation, comfort, consciousness and activity, improving life skills, continuity and continuity. Attention is paid to the means of implementing tasks related to the use of health-saving technologies in primary school: motor orientation, health-giving forces of nature, hygienic conditions. The functions of health-saving technologies in primary school are defined: formative, informative and communicative, diagnostic, adaptive, reflective, integrative. It is emphasised that the use of health-saving technologies in the educational process allows students to adapt more successfully in the educational and social space, to reveal their creative abilities, and a teacher to effectively prevent antisocial behaviour, to actively involve parents of students in the work on strengthening and preserving children’s health.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar Phase Linking with Level 2 Coregistered Single Look Complexes: Enhancing Infrastructure Monitoring Accuracy at Algeciras Port

This paper presents an advanced workflow for processing radar imagery stacks using Persistent Scatterer and Distributed Scatterer Interferometry (PSDS) to enhance spatial coherence and improve displacement detection accuracy. The workflow leverages Level 2 Coregistered Single Look Complex (L2-CSLC) images generated by the open-source COMPASS (Coregistered Multi-temporal Sar SLC) framework in combination with the Combined eigenvalue maximum likelihood Phase Linking (CPL) approach implemented in MiaplPy. Starting the analysis directly from Level 2 products offers a significant advantage to end-users, as they simplify processing by being pre-geocoded and ready for immediate analysis. Additionally, the open-source nature of the workflow and the use of L2-CSLC products simplify the processing pipeline, making it easier to distribute directly to users for practical applications in monitoring infrastructure stability in dynamic environments. The ISCE3-MiaplPy workflow is compared against ISCE2-MiaplPy and the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) to assess its performance in detecting infrastructure deformations in dynamic environments, such as the Algeciras port. The results indicate that ISCE3-MiaplPy delivers denser measurements, albeit with increased noise, compared to its counterparts. This higher resolution enables a more detailed understanding of infrastructure stability and surface dynamics, which is critical for environments with ongoing human activity or natural forces.

Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS

Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result from this. The Ilisu Dam was built very close to a highly tectonically active fault system, particularly the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), which is one of the largest tectonically active faults in the world with a length of 500 km. This region has witnessed past and present earthquakes of high magnitude (M > 7), especially in the EAF, so the construction of the Ilisu Dam near the EAF fault system is of great concern, as it was built in a basin with very complex seismic activity and geology.Using the HEC-RAS simulation application, the study found that the flood resulting from the collapse of the Ilisu Dam would reach the edges of the Mosul Dam Lake in just 13 h. With a flow of more than 100,000 m3/s, more than 10 billion m3 of water will flow into the Mosul Dam Lake within four days of the disaster. This will lead to the collapse of the Mosul Dam and direct the flood wave of the collapse of these dams towards Baghdad through Mosul, Tikrit, and Samarra. This could pose risks to all Iraqi cities located within the Iraqi sedimentary plain (Mesopotamia), from south of the Mosul Dam up to Basra, in a scenario similar to Noah’s Flood.

ПРОФЕССОР С. П. ПОПОВ: НЕИЗВЕСТНЫЕ СТРАНИЦЫ БИОГРАФИИ

Aspects of scientific, organizational and pedagogical activity in the Crimea of the pupil, colleague and friend of academician V. I. Vernadsky, a major mineralogist, geochemist, Professor Sergei Platonovich Popov (1872–1964), have been restored. The main source for reconstructing the historical daily life of the professor in the conditions of the Crimean province were his letters to Academician V. I. Vernadsky. The analysis of the texts made it possible to identify the lines of intellectual tension «province – center» and show the wide range of S. P. Popov’s communication in the 20-30s. The corpus of documents from the State Archive of the Russian Federation, the Russian State Archive of Economics, and the State Archive of the Republic of Crimea are being introduced into scientific circulation, which made it possible to reveal stories about Popov’s work in Simferopol. The activity of the geologist at the head of the Crimean Research Institute, which he saw as a continuation of the work of the Commission for the Study of Natural Productive Forces of the Crimea established by V. I. Vernadsky, is revealed. The scientist’s activity is shown on the background of socio-economic transformations taking place in the country and in its separate region.

On the manipulator-focused response to manipulation cases

AbstractIn this paper, we identify a class of responses to cases of manipulation that we label manipulator-focused views. The key insight of such views is that being subject to the will of another agent significantly affects our freedom and moral responsibility. Though different authors take this key insight in different directions, and the mechanics of their views are quite different, these views turn out to share many key components, and this allows us to discuss several authors’ views at the same time, highlighting a variety of challenges for such views and helping to identify pitfalls to avoid in further developments of views of this type. Moreover, as we survey manipulator-focused views and the challenges that plague them, we go beyond the typical problem cases for such views—natural force variations of manipulation cases—and introduce several new manipulation cases. We conclude by comparing the prospects for this family of views with its main rival, namely bypassing views.

The spatio-temporal evolution of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impact on famine

Abstract. Investigations of past extreme climate events offer insights into the interactions between natural forces, ecosystems, and human societies. The Chongzhen drought, which occurred from 1627 to 1644 CE, stands as possibly the most severe drought in central and eastern China over the last 1500 years, remarkable for its duration and extent and the vast number of people affected. Concurrently, a widespread famine emerged, triggering peasant uprisings that are argued as having contributed to the Ming Dynasty's downfall. This study extracted 1802 drought records and 1977 famine records from Chinese historical documents to reconstruct the spatio-temporal progression of the drought and its impact on famine. The records provided drought information of season, duration, and intensity, which enabled a classification of four drought severity levels. Then kernel density estimation reconstructed the spatial pattern of drought and the drought kernel density index (DKDI) series in sub-regions. Between 1627 and 1644, the drought affected most of central and eastern China. The severe drought zone was mainly located north of 29° N, shifting from the northwestern region to the northern region and then expanding to the south. The development of drought in different regions was not synchronized. The northwestern region faced the earliest drought outbreak, which eased in the middle period and peaked in 1640. The northern region's DKDI series forms a single-peaked curve, indicating a gradual aggravation of the drought from 1633 to 1640. The Yangtze–Huai region's DKDI series shows a multi-peaked curve, with repeated cycles of worsening and easing drought, peaking in 1641. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal progression of famine revealed overlapped ranges and similar development trends to that of the drought. The years marking the peak of the famine kernel density index (FKDI) in the northwestern region, northern region, and Yangtze–Huai region coincided with those of the DKDI. Regression analysis identified drought as the primary factor triggering famine, accounting for approximately 67.3 % of its occurrence. In the northern region, the contribution of drought was higher (73.4 %). Series and correlation analyses indicate a continuity in drought's impacts on famine. This paper further clarifies the dominant pathway of climate impact transmission in this case: extreme drought → declining agricultural harvest → food shortage → famine. Other natural and socio-economic factors, such as locust infestations, nomadic invasions, and economic decline, also played a role in the occurrence of famine. Human response measures were instrumental in regulating the transmission of climate change impacts.

Numerical evaluation of the impact of sandbars on cross-shore sediment transport and shoreline evolution

Nearshore nourishments are a common intervention used to mitigate sediment deficits in coastal areas experiencing erosion problems. This coastal intervention involves placing nourished sediments in the submerged zone of the beach profile to form an artificial submerged sandbar which are then distributed by natural forces occurring in the coastal zone. Coastal processes that control the morphological evolution of coastal zones operate on several spatial and temporal scales (seconds to years) and can be divided into cross-shore and longshore components. Usually, the numerical models that simulate the evolution of cross-shore profiles due to sediment transport within the profiles, are related with short to medium-term events (days to months), and shoreline evolution models, that allow for long-term analysis (years to decades), are typically only considering longshore sediment transport. Describing all the processes in a single numerical model is complex and computationally demanding, and therefore, the numerical models are typically focused on specific processes, categorized by their temporal and spatial scales. This article presents a numerical study focused on medium to long-term numerical modelling of coastal zone evolution, examining the combined effects of cross-shore and longshore sediment transport processes of sediment transport. The model incorporates two simplified numerical models: LTC - Long Term Configuration, for shoreline evolution and CS-Model, for cross-shore sediment exchanges. Applied to nine different sandbar scenarios, model results revealed that disturbances in sandbar volume tend to return to equilibrium through cross-shore sediment transport processes. In situations that considered a constant sandbar volume alongshore, the longshore effects are null, because the volume entering in the coastal domain is equal to the volume leaving, and the sediment balance is only dependent of the cross-shore processes. Variable sandbar volume alongshore leads to impacts on shoreline position due to longshore sediment transport gradients generated by the sandbar disturbance. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed combined model for medium to long-term projections, allowing for the interpretation of how physical aspects of nearshore nourishments evolve. These aspects include sandbar volume, shoreline position, berm width, and shoreline displacements induced by cross-shore and longshore sediment transport processes. These parameters aid in understanding sandbar-beach sediment dynamics, which is valuable for supporting coastal management, particularly in the development and design of shoreface sand nourishments, enabling the optimization of sand resources.

Theoretical and experimental investigation of flexible air spring stiffness in a tuned liquid column gas damper for vertical vibration control

This study investigates the effectiveness of equivalent linear air spring stiffness in a Vertical Tuned Liquid Column Gas Damper (VTLCGD) for reducing vertical structural vibrations, particularly considering different sealing conditions. The VTLCGD system, designed with a single sealed vertical air column, allows flexible frequency tuning by adjusting the air spring stiffness. It aims to be used in low-frequency structures where conventional VTLCGD designs with two sealed ends are less efficient. The geometric configuration and working principle of the VTLCGD are first described. The equation of motion is derived using liquid dynamic equilibrium and the pressure-volume relationship, with expressions for natural frequency and control force validated through shaking table tests conducted with varying VTLCGD lengths. Experimental investigations are conducted to examine the parameters affecting damper performance using pressure data. The system's vibration reduction performance is then numerically evaluated on a cantilevered floor subjected to human walking. The numerical results, based on the equation of motion for liquid displacement and natural frequency, show good agreement with experimental data, which confirms the effectiveness of using linearized air spring stiffness for frequency tuning. The effects of total liquid length and height difference on control force are further investigated, and a polytropic index of 1.2 is determined for the VTLCGD frequency formula. The VTLCGD system achieves a maximum vibration reduction of 52.63 % in acceleration response on the cantilevered floor compared to the uncontrolled case. Moreover, the variation in stiffness due to changes in the sealing condition is presented to validate the damper's adaptability over a wide frequency range.

Environmental changes and human impacts over the past 1200 years: Evidence from high-resolution pollen records from peat in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Southwest China

Over the past millennium, the understanding of vegetation and climate changes in mountainous regions, driven by both natural and anthropogenic forces, remains unclear. In this study, we provide a high-resolution vegetation record spanning the past 1200 years from a subalpine peatland in the Niangniang Mountains, southwestern China. By analyzing pollen, charcoal, and loss-on-ignition from the peat sediment, we elucidate the interactions between vegetation, fire, and human impact. Our findings reveal that before 1150 CE, the mountains were covered with dense broadleaf forests and experienced minimal human activity. Natural forcings, primarily climatic conditions, drove vegetation succession and forest fires. After 1150 CE, the Human Influence Index (HII) increased sharply, coinciding with a rise in cereal-type pollen. Significant agricultural activities in the southwestern mountainous regions of China began after 1150 CE, which is later than those in the low-altitude lake basins of southwestern China. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 836–1400 CE), the Niangniang Mountains were characterized by warm and humid climatic conditions, a stable forested landscape, and a high peat carbon accumulation rate. Although human activities increased markedly during this period, the arbors did not undergo notable changes, and climate forcings continued to have a greater impact on vegetation than anthropogenic forcings. During the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1900 CE), the regional vegetation landscape transitioned from dense forests to open grasslands as climate conditions became cold and dry, reducing peat carbon accumulation rate. This period also saw increased forest fires and significant human-driven deforestation, with anthropogenic forcings becoming dominant. After 1900 CE, vegetation changes were increasingly influenced by government policies. Comparison with major climate forcings and spectrum analysis have shown that variations in monsoon intensity, regulated by solar and volcanic activity, have influenced the climate and peat depositional environment in the Niangniang Mountains. Our research offers meaningful insights into forest conservation in the mountainous regions of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.

The phenology and water level time-series mangrove index for improved mangrove monitoring

Mangroves face decline and degradation due to human activities and natural forces, making their accurate mapping and dynamic monitoring essential. However, most of the existing mangrove indices that rely on multispectral image spectral characteristics suffer from limitations in terms of recognition accuracy and universality. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a robust and efficient Phenology and Water level Time-series Mangrove Index (PWTMI) for mangrove monitoring. PWTMI is constructed by combining spectral and temporal characteristics from dense time-series multispectral data, wherein phenology and water level time-series characteristics are extracted from NDVI and MNDWI time series. The results show that PWTMI outperforms existing multispectral-based mangrove indices and has an accuracy similar to a hyperspectral-based mangrove index, with overall accuracy ranging from 91.49% to 98.83% and F1 score ranging from 0.91 to 0.98 in four typical areas in China, indicating great potential for long time-series and large-scale mangrove monitoring.

In‐Pipe Maintenance Robot Using Spray‐In‐Place Pipe Technique for Long‐Distance and Complex Pipe Environment

ABSTRACTConventional pipe rehabilitation technologies are not the most sustainable solution for the utility industry because of various drawbacks, such as time consumption, disturbance to operations, society, and traffic, and the production of waste material. However, aged underground metal pipes are affected by natural forces. Trenchless rehabilitation technologies have been introduced for the treatment and renovation of aged pipes to ensure that utilities are safe and durable from an economic perspective. This paper proposes a portable and automatic robotic solution for a trenchless spray‐in‐place pipe approach for small underground pipelines. This approach shortens the duration of the rehabilitation operation from approximately a week to < 5 h. The robot delivered and monitored a protective well‐mixed urethane coating with plural components accurately using rotary mixing and spraying with a low‐pressure and safer configuration (< 0.8 MPa). The robot exhibited superior capacities in complicated pipe environments for turning into 90° elbows and 6‐in. (150 mm), 8‐in. (200 mm), and 10‐in. (250 mm) pipelines. An automated robot was deployed and rehabilitated at various underground and on‐ground pipe sites. The spray performance was validated using tensile tests. This robot can be applied to any pipeline system and can be developed for other in‐pipe robotic construction and renovation approaches.

Semantics of Transition: Death and Resurrection of the Hero in Film Fantasy at the Turn of the 20th—21st Centuries

The article is devoted to the study of human metaphysical experience through cinema art. The material of the study is widely known fantasy films (“The Lord of the Rings”, “The Matrix”, “Harry Potter”, “The Chronicles of Narnia”, “Avatar”), in which the sacral space is realized as a magical fairy tale or a dream, and the hero acting in it is identified with the concept of “soul” or “consciousness”. The aim of the study is to semantically and cognitively analyze the visual image of transition through death, which is offered to the viewer by cinematography, and to model the director’s concepts included in it. The author’s concept of transition is based on the works of M. Eliade, A. van Gennep, C.G. Jung, M.P. Hall and is revealed as a multi-phase process of soul transformation in the conditions of spiritual or perceptual crisis. It is established that the transition scenario in the films considered includes an “entry point” into another world, a series of initiations and an “exit point”. In this context, death and resurrection are the climactic phase and have different symbolic connotations, their essence depending on the prototype that the hero imitates. As it has been revealed, the imitation of cyclical forces of nature (solar, agrarian deities) by contemporary directors is interpreted by them as a long stage of soul maturation, which is no longer opposed to, but naturally precedes the imitation of the “divine archetype” (in the Christian tradition, Christ the Saviour). The axis of transition from forced submission to the endless cycle of renewal to the evolutionary stage of spiritual maturity is the act of “awakening” expressed in the willingness to voluntarily sacrifice oneself out of love and compassion for others. Death and resurrection in this case manifest the metaphysical transformation of the soul aspect into the spiritual one. At the same time, in the process of studying the film material, a tendency of a transgressive nature was detected, namely the replacement of the concept “soul” by the concept “brain”. As a result of identifying the functions of the human brain with the functions of a computer in the mental space, there is a danger of substitution of the divine image by artificial intelligence, which can provoke the blocking of the channel “soul – spirit” and the involutionary turn from spirit to matter.

The Attribution of February Extremes over North America: A Forecast-Based Storyline Study

Abstract The importance of extreme event attribution rises as climate change causes severe damage to populations resulting from unprecedented events. In February 2019, a planetary wave shifted along the U.S.–Canadian border, simultaneously leading to troughing with anomalous cold events and ridging over Alaska and northern Canada with abnormal warm events. Also, a dry-stabilized anticyclonic circulation over low latitudes induced warm extreme events over Mexico and Florida. Most attribution studies compare the climate model simulations under natural or actual forcing conditions and assess probabilistically from a climatological point of view. However, in this study, we use multiple ensembles from an operational forecast model, promising statistical as well as dynamically constrained attribution assessment, often referred to as the storyline approach to extreme event attribution. In the globally averaged results, increasing CO2 concentrations lead to distinct warming signals at the surface, resulting mainly from diabatic heating. Our study finds that CO2-induced warming eventually affects the possibility of extreme events in North America, quantifying the impact of anthropogenic forcing over less than a week’s forecast simulation. Our study assesses the validity of the storyline approach conditional on the forecast lead times, which is hindered by rising noise in CO2 signals and the declining performance of the forecast model. The forecast-based storyline approach is valid for at least half of the land area within a 6-day lead time before the target extreme occurrence. Our attribution results highlight the importance of achieving net-zero emissions ahead of schedule to reduce the occurrence of severe heatwaves.