Forbush Decrease Events Research Articles

Modeling theoretical radiative–dynamic response of tropospheric clouds to cosmic ray changes associated with Forbush Decrease events

Forbush Decrease (FD) effects on cloud composition and structure are under study and the results are still controversial. Time-scales are of paramount importance for supporting either a ‘microphysical hypothesis’, which hypothesizes a relation between FD and cloud microphysical parameters variability, or a different one. A most controversial question is related to the time delay between FD and cloud structure modification. The timescales of a radiative–dynamical mechanism, investigated through a simple model, are compatible with the observed variability with respect to cloud structure. Thus the delayed modification on cloud structure has to be put in relation with solar radiation variability, being coherent with the observed statistically significant Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), temperature and baric field variations, while not supporting the ‘microphysical hypothesis’.

An analysis of large Forbush decrease events using phase diagrams of view channels of the Nagoya multidirectional muon telescope

Large Forbush decrease (FD) events are analysed using data recorded by the ground-based Nagoya multi-directional muon telescope in Japan. As a part of the analysis we introduce a phase diagram for the channels of telescope, which provides more robust information about characteristics of events. Specifically, the slope of the regression line in the phase diagram represents the FD amplitude which can be computed for different channels. This allows us to analyze the dependence of the FD amplitude on the rigidity of CR particles. Two models for this dependence are considered, a power law and exponential and the former is found to be more suitable for the considered events. In terms of the power-law index and the FD amplitude the events are split into two groups. It is shown that the larger events are characterized by smaller power-law index than the smaller ones.

High-rigidity Forbush decreases: due to CMEs or shocks?

We seek to identify the primary agents causing Forbush decreases (FDs) observed at the Earth in high rigidity cosmic rays. In particular, we ask if such FDs are caused mainly by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun that are directed towards the Earth, or by their associated shocks. We use the muon data at cutoff rigidities ranging from 14 to 24 GV from the GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope to identify FD events. We select those FD events that have a reasonably clean profile, and can be reasonably well associated with an Earth-directed CME and its associated shock. We employ two models: one that considers the CME as the sole cause of the FD (the CME-only model) and one that considers the shock as the only agent causing the FD (the shock-only model). We use an extensive set of observationally determined parameters for both these models. The only free parameter in these models is the level of MHD turbulence in the sheath region, which mediates cosmic ray diffusion (into the CME, for the CME-only model and across the shock sheath, for the shock-only model). We find that good fits to the GRAPES-3 multi-rigidity data using the CME-only model require turbulence levels in the CME sheath region that are only slightly higher than those estimated for the quiet solar wind. On the other hand, reasonable model fits with the shock-only model require turbulence levels in the sheath region that are an order of magnitude higher than those in the quiet solar wind. This observation naturally leads to the conclusion that the Earth-directed CMEs are the primary contributors to FDs observed in high rigidity cosmic rays.

Simultaneity of Forbush decrease events observed at middle‐latitude neutron monitors

AbstractGround neutron monitors (NMs) sometimes observe a sudden reduction in galactic cosmic ray intensity—the so‐called Forbush decrease (FD) event. Such events are mainly associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections passing around the Earth and corotating interaction regions in the heliosphere. Some FD events are observed globally, either simultaneously or nonsimultaneously, at different NM stations in the case that the simultaneity is determined by the overlapping of the FD main phase, with the period of the cosmic ray intensity decreasing before returning to a steady state. Previous studies have identified two types of FD events with statistically significant differences in the distributions of the main phase onset time. It has been hypothesized that simultaneous FD events occur when a strong magnetic cloud passes by the Earth through the central part of the magnetic barrier, whereas nonsimultaneous events occur if a weaker magnetic cloud passes on the duskside of the magnetosphere. However, the previous statistical analyses were performed using only data from high geomagnetic latitude NM stations in the Northern Hemisphere. To address this shortcoming and to further test the above hypothesis, we repeated the analysis using data from NM stations located at middle latitudes (Jungfraujoch, Irkutsk, and Climax), employing cutoff rigidities 3–6 GV for the last solar maximum period (1998–2002), spanning the same time period as Oh et al. (2008) that employed high‐latitude NM stations. The results of the present statistical analysis support the above hypothesis with high confidence levels.

Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds

The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the Earth’s atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease (Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets. Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.

Examining a solar‐climate link in diurnal temperature ranges

A recent study has suggested a link between the surface level diurnal temperature range (DTR) and variations in the cosmic ray (CR) flux. As the DTR is an effective proxy for cloud cover, this result supports the notion that widespread cloud changes may be induced by the CR flux. If confirmed, this would have significant implications for our understanding of natural climate forcings. Here, we perform a detailed investigation of the relationships between DTR and solar activity (total solar irradiance and the CR flux) from more than 60 years of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observations from meteorological station data. We find no statistically significant evidence to suggest that the DTR is connected to either long‐term solar periodicities (11 or 1.68‐year) or short‐term (daily timescale) fluctuations in solar activity, and we attribute previous reports on the contrary to an incorrect estimation of the statistical significance of the data. If a CR–DTR relationship exists, based on the estimated noise in DTR composites during Forbush decrease (FD) events, the DTR response would need to be larger than 0.03°C per 1% increase in the CR flux to be reliably detected. Compared with a much smaller rough estimate of −0.005°C per 1% increase in the CR flux expected if previous claims that FD events cause reductions in the cloud cover are valid, we conclude it is not possible to detect a solar related responses in station‐based or reanalysis‐based DTR data sets related to a hypothesized CR–cloud link, as potential signals would be drowned in noise.

A Simultaneous Forbush Decrease Associated with an Earthward Coronal Mass Ejection Observed by STEREO

The intensity–time profile of Forbush decrease (FD) events observed by neutron monitors (NMs) looks like that of a geomagnetic storm as defined by the Dst index. Oh, Yi, and Kim (J. Geophys. Res. 113, A01103, 2008) and Oh and Yi (J. Geophys. Res. 114, A11102, 2009) classified FD events based on the amount of overlap and simultaneity of their main phase in Universal Time (UT). Oh and Yi define an FD event as simultaneous if the main phases observed by NMs distributed evenly around the Earth overlap in UT, and nonsimultaneous if they overlap only in the local time of some stations. They suggested that the occurrence mechanisms of two types of FD events may be related to interplanetary (IP) magnetic structures such as IP shocks and magnetic clouds. In their model, the simultaneity of FD events depends on the strength and propagation direction of magnetic structures overtaking the Earth. Recently, the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has been able to visualize the emergence and propagation direction of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in three dimensions in the heliosphere; thus, it is now possible to test the suggested mechanisms. One simultaneous FD event observed on 18 February 2011 may have been caused by a CME heading directly toward the Earth, which was observed on 15 February 2011 by the STEREO mission. Therefore, the simultaneity of FD events is proven to be a useful analysis tool in understanding the geoeffectiveness of solar events such as interplanetary CMEs and IP shocks.

A cosmic ray-climate link and cloud observations

Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth's cloud cover remains elusive. This work examines evidence of a cosmic ray cloud link from a range of sources, including satellite-based cloud measurements and long-term ground-based climatological measurements. The satellite-based studies can be divided into two categories: 1) monthly to decadal timescale correlations, and 2) daily timescale epoch-superpositional (composite) analysis. The latter analyses frequently focus on high-magnitude reductions in the cosmic ray flux known as Forbush Decrease (FD) events. At present, two long-term independent global satellite cloud datasets are available (ISCCP and MODIS). Although the differences between them are considerable, neither shows evidence of a solar-cloud link at either long or short timescales. Furthermore, reports of observed correlations between solar activity and cloud over the 1983 to 1995 period are attributed to the chance agreement between solar changes and artificially induced cloud trends. It is possible that the satellite cloud datasets and analysis methods may simply be too insensitive to detect a small solar signal. Evidence from ground-based studies suggests that some weak but statistically significant CR-cloud relationships may exist at regional scales, involving mechanisms related to the global electric circuit. However, a poor understanding of these mechanisms and their effects on cloud make the net impacts of such links uncertain. Regardless of this, it is clear that there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds.

Correction to “Statistical reality of globally nonsimultaneous Forbush decrease events”

Correction to “Statistical reality of globally nonsimultaneous Forbush decrease events”

Forbush decreases, solar irradiance variations, and anomalous cloud changes

Changes in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux due to variations in solar activity may provide an indirect connection between the Sun's and the Earth's climates. Epoch superpositional (composite) analyses of high-magnitude GCR fluctuations, known as Forbush decrease (FD) events, have been widely used to test this hypothesis, with varied results. This work provides new information regarding the interpretation of this approach, suggesting that FD events do not isolate the impacts of GCR variations from those of solar irradiance changes. On average, irradiance changes of ∼0.4 W m−2 outside the atmosphere occur around 2 days in advance of FD-associated GCR decreases. Using this 2 day gap to separate the effects of irradiance variations from GCR variations on cloud cover, we demonstrate small, but statistically significant, anomalous cloud changes occurring only over areas of the Antarctic plateau in association with the irradiance changes, which previous workers had attributed to GCR variations. Further analysis of the sample shows that these cloud anomalies occurred primarily during polar darkness, precluding the possibility of a causal link to a direct total solar irradiance effect. This work suggests that previous FD-based studies may have ineffectively isolated the impacts of GCR variations on the Earth's atmosphere.

Study of large forbush decrease events of solar cycle 23rd

Study of large forbush decrease events of solar cycle 23rd

A correlation study of high‐altitude and midaltitude clouds and galactic cosmic rays by MIPAS‐Envisat

The cloud index (CI), the cloud occurrence frequency (Occ), and the extinction data (Ext) of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding instrument on board Envisat (MIPAS‐E) from July 2002 to March 2004 are used to investigate a possible link between galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and midaltitude and high‐altitude clouds (CI, Occ: 9–18 km, Ext: 12–24 km). The zonally averaged data with 3 km vertical resolution are averaged over six major Forbush decrease (FD) events and subsequently correlated with the Climax neutron monitor data (CNM). In order to allow for nucleation and growth of ice particles, time lags from 0 to 5 days are applied. We find several weak but statistically significant correlations with an excess of positive cloud‐GCR correlations. Introducing a time lag does not enhance the correlations significantly. Subdividing the data in a global grid with 30° × 90° × 3 km resolution shows higher correlations in some regions. The investigation of the individual FD events yields a heterogeneous picture. Overall, there is a weak tendency toward a positive cloud‐CNM correlation. A Kolmogorov‐Smirnov test shows that for time shifts from 0 to +5 days a weak GCR‐cloud effect is evident in the MIPAS‐E measurements. An estimation of the impact of this effect delivers that a 15% increase in CNM would result in a small decrease in CI (corresponding to an increase in cloud opacity) which is most pronounced at 9 km altitude (−9% to +0.5%). For log(Ext) a decrease of −5 to 0% is calculated at 12 km altitude which shifts toward weak positive values at higher altitudes.

Influence of Magnetic Clouds on Variations of Cosmic Rays in November 2004

We investigate the effects of two magnetic clouds on hourly cosmic-ray intensity profiles in the Forbush decrease events in November 2004 observed by 47 ground-based neutron-monitor stations. By using a wavelet decomposition, the start time of the main phase in a Forbush decrease event can be defined, and then clearer definitions of initial phase, main phase, and recovery phase are proposed. Our analyses suggest that the main phase of this Fd event precedes the arrival time of the first magnetic cloud by about three hours, and the Fds observed at the majority (39/47) of the stations were found to originate from the sheath region as indicated by large fluctuations in magnetic field vectors at 19:00 UT on 7 November 2004, regardless of the station location. In addition, about 45% of the onset times of the recovery phase in the Forbush decreases took place at 04:00 UT on 10 November, independent of the station position. The results presented here support the hypothesis that the sheath region between the shock and the magnetic cloud, especially the enhanced turbulent magnetic field, results in the scattering of cosmic-ray particles, and causes the following Forbush decreases. Analysis of variation profiles from different neutron monitors reveals the global simultaneity of this Forbush decrease event. Moreover, we infer that the interplanetary disturbance was asymmetric when it reached the Earth, inclined to the southern hemisphere. These results provide several observational constraints for more detailed simulations of the Forbush decrease events with time-dependent cosmic-ray modulation models.

Forbush decreases and Antarctic cloud anomalies in the upper troposphere

We demonstrate evidence that past composite based studies centred around the onset of Forbush decrease (FD) events may have improperly isolated the maximal galactic cosmic ray (GCR) decrease associated with the FD events. After an adjustment of the composite to account for such shortcomings we find indications of anomalous cloud cover decreases (of around 3%) located in the upper levels of the troposphere at high southern latitudes. These cloud changes are detectable after latitudinal averaging, suggesting the possibility of a second order relationship between the rate of GCR flux and cloud cover in this region. The maximal cloud change is observed in advance of the maximal GCR decrease; this implies that if the observed cloud changes bear a causal relationship to the rate of GCR flux, then cloud properties may be sensitive to changes in GCR conditions rather than the maximal deviations themselves.

宇宙線と雲形成―フォーブッシュ現象で雲は減るか？―

Possible influences of cosmic rays on terrestrial climate have been studied by many researchers since a good correlation between neutron monitor counts and global cloud amount was reported by Svensmark and Friis-Christensen in 1997. The cosmic ray-cloud relationship may be best tested during Forbush decrease events, in which cosmic rays largely decrease for several days associated with coronal mass ejections. Some cloud parameters are likely to respond to the transient decrease of cosmic rays with a typical time delay of several days, although we do not know the physics behind the cosmic-ray cloud relationship.

Cosmic ray decreases and changes in the liquid water cloud fraction over the oceans

Svensmark et al. (2009) have recently claimed that strong galactic cosmic ray (GCR) decreases during ‘Forbush Decrease (FD) events’ are followed by decreases in both the global liquid water cloud fraction (LCF) and other closely correlated atmospheric parameters. To test the validity of these findings we have concentrated on just one property, the MODIS LCF and examined two aspects: 1) The statistical chance that the decrease observed in the LCF is abnormal. 2) The likelihood of the observed delay (∼5 to 9 days) being physically connected to the FD events. On both counts we conclude that LCF variations are unrelated to FD events: Both the pattern and timing of observed LCF changes are irreconcilable with current theoretical pathways. Additionally, a zonal analysis of LCF variations also offers no support to the claimed relationship, as the observed anomaly is not found to vary latitudinally in conjunction with cosmic ray intensity.

The current status of the GRAPES-3 extensive air shower experiment

The GRAPES-3 is a dense extensive air shower array operating with ∼400 scintillator detectors and it also contains a 560 m 2 tracking muon detector ( E μ > 1 GeV ), at Ooty in India. 25% of scintillator detectors are instrumented with two fast photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for extending the dynamic range to ∼ 5 × 10 3 particles m − 2 . The scintillators, signal processing electronics and data recording systems were fabricated in-house to cut costs and optimize performance. The muon multiplicity distribution of the EAS is used to probe the composition of primary cosmic rays below the ‘knee’, with an overlap with direct measurements. Search for multi-TeV γ -rays from point sources is done with the aid of the muon detector. A good angular resolution of 0.7° at 30 TeV, is measured from the shadow of the Moon on the isotropic flux of cosmic rays. A sensitive limit on the diffuse flux of 100 TeV γ -rays is placed by using muon detector to filter the charged cosmic ray background. A tracking muon detector allows sensitive measurements on coronal mass ejections and solar flares through Forbush decrease events. We have major expansion plans to enhance the sensitivity of the GRAPES-3 experiment in the areas listed above.

Statistical reality of globally nonsimultaneous Forbush decrease events

The Forbush decrease (FD) event, a sudden decrease of galactic cosmic ray intensity measured by neutron monitor (NM), is known as a globally simultaneous phenomenon. However, some of them do not occur simultaneously in universal time. On the basis of the difference of main phase onset time distributions of two kinds of FD events, Oh et al. (2008) suggested that the global simultaneity of FD events depends on the solar wind physical parameters and propagation direction in three‐dimensional heliosphere around the Earth. In order to get the hypothesis approved with a higher confidence level, the FD event data set is extended to 218 events with a longer period from 1971 to 2006 using Oulu, Inuvik, and Magadan station data. In addition, the probability of the same distribution of those two different classes of FD events is calculated in each NM station's view. All three NM stations confirm the probability of different distributions of FD main phase onset times of globally simultaneous and nonsimultaneous with a confidence level of 99%, compared with 94% of previous study. The statistics in this study may support the hypothesis that the simultaneous FD events occur when stronger magnetic barriers pass by the Earth through the central part of the magnetic barriers and in contrast that the nonsimultaneous FD events occur only if the less strong magnetic barriers pass the Earth on the dusk side of the magnetosphere.

Forbush decreases and turbulence levels at coronal mass ejection fronts

Aims. We seek to estimate the average level of MHD turbulence near coronal mass ejection (CME) fronts as they propagate from the Sun to the Earth. Methods. We examined the cosmic ray data from the GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope at Ooty, together with the data from other sources for three closely observed Forbush decrease events. Each of these event is associated with frontside halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and near-Earth magnetic clouds. The associated Forbush decreases are therefore expected to have significant contributions from the cosmic-ray depressions inside the CMEs/ejecta. In each case, we estimate the magnitude of the Forbush decrease using a simple model for the diffusion of high-energy protons through the largely closed field lines enclosing the CME as it expands and propagates from the Sun to the Earth. The diffusion of high-energy protons is inhibited by the smooth, large-scale magnetic field enclosing the CME and aided by the turbulent fluctuations near the CME front. We use estimates of the cross-field diffusion coefficient D ⊥ derived from the published results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic rays propagating through turbulent magnetic fields. We then compare our estimates with the magnitudes of the observed Forbush decreases. Results. Our method helps constrain the ratio of energy density in the turbulent magnetic fields to that in the mean magnetic fields near the CME fronts. This ratio is found to be ∼2% for the 2001 April 11 Forbush decrease event, ∼6% for the 2003 November 20 Forbush decrease event and ∼249% for the much more energetic event of 2003 October 29.

Cosmic rays, cloud condensation nuclei and clouds – a reassessment using MODIS data

Abstract. The response of clouds to sudden decreases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) – Forbush decrease events – has been investigated using cloud products from the space-borne MODIS instrument, which has been in operation since 2000. By focusing on pristine Southern Hemisphere ocean regions we examine areas where we believe that a cosmic ray signal should be easier to detect than elsewhere. While previous studies have mainly considered cloud cover, the high spatial and spectral resolution of MODIS allows for a more thorough study of microphysical parameters such as cloud droplet size, cloud water content and cloud optical depth, in addition to cloud cover. Averaging the results from the 22 Forbush decrease events that were considered, no statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and GCR, when autocorrelations were taken into account. Splitting the area of study into six domains, all of them have a negative correlation between GCR and cloud droplet size, in agreement with a cosmic ray – cloud coupling, but in only one of the domains (eastern Atlantic Ocean) was the correlation statistically significant. Conversely, cloud optical depth is mostly negatively correlated with GCR, and in the eastern Atlantic Ocean domain that correlation is statistically significant. For cloud cover and liquid water path, the correlations with GCR are weaker, with large variations between the different domains. When only the six Forbush decrease events with the largest amplitude (more than 10% decrease) were studied, the correlations fit the hypothesis slightly better, with 16 out of 24 correlations having the expected sign, although many of the correlations are quite weak. Introducing a time lag of a few days for clouds to respond to the cosmic ray signal the correlations tend to become weaker and even to change sign.