Climate change and socio-economic transformation increasingly challenge the stability of China's food supply. This study aims to optimize grain crop layouts by integrating natural suitability and nutritional supply within a unified analytical framework. Using the MaxEnt model incorporating bioclimatic, topographic, and soil variables, we simulated the natural suitability of major grain crops and compared it with actual planting patterns based on the SPAM dataset. Results revealed substantial spatial discrepancies between actual and suitable distributions, with national planting diversity index increasing by 26.42% (from 0.53 to 0.67) under suitable conditions. Wheat and maize are most suited to northern China, rice and tuber crops to southern regions, while soybean performs optimally in the northeast. Nutrient supply potential also improved substantially under the suitable scenario, with energy, protein, fat, and carbohydrate increasing by 56.9 × 108 KJ, 77.2 × 106 g, 23.3 × 106 g, and 48.6 × 106 g per million people, respectively. Among alternative structures, maize-soybean and maize-based planting structures better aligned with both natural adaptability and nutritional balance (e.g., in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang), whereas rice-based structure showed weaker correspondence (e.g., in Shanghai). These findings demonstrate that naturally adaptive optimization can enhance both environmental compatibility and nutritional adequacy, providing scientific guidance for developing climate-resilient and nutrition-oriented crop layout strategies in China.

The purpose and objectives of the studyThe purpose of the dissertation is to develop promising areas of trade and economic cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the EAEU countries in the context of solving the problem of food security in modern economic conditions.To achieve the goal of the study, the followingtasks were set and solved:–to consider the theoretical aspects of the country's food security, the effects and risks of its decline;–to study the world experience of forming food security of countries;–to study the state policy of China in the field of ensuring food security;–to assess the export opportunities in the food sector of the EAEU countries;–to identify and justify promising areas of food exports to the PRC by the EAEU countries, as well as the implementation of joint investment projects in the field of agriculture.The object of the study is trade and economic cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the EAEU countries in the field of ensuring food security.The subject of the study is the substantiation of the main directions of ensuring food security based on the development of mutually beneficial cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the EAEU countries, the development of the export potential of states, and the improvement of investment activities.Provisions submitted for defense1. The essence and content of the category "food security" are defined, distinctive characteristics and criteria for assessing the level of food security are identified.2. An assessment of the position of the People's Republic of China in the field of food security is carried out, the evolution of changes in the nutritional structure of the population of the PRC is considered,3. Factors complicating the solution of the food problem in the country, the dependence of the domestic food market of China on imports of food products, and strategic directions for ensuring food security in China are identified.4. The reduction of food security risks in each of the EAEU member states has been revealed, which is primarily facilitated by mutual provision of various types of food products, prospects for the sustainable development of agriculture, ensuring the growth of physical availability of food products in the Union countries, self-sufficiency in basic agricultural products have been established5. The potential for cooperation between the countries of the Eurasian region in the field of agriculture and its importance for solving the food problem in China have been established, as well as the main areas of development of agricultural exports from the EAEU countries to China: commodity structure, volumes, dynamics and prospects for expanding volumes and improving the quality of products.Personal contribution of the applicantThe dissertation is an independently completed scientific study: the provisions submitted for defense have been developed by the author independently, have practical significance, the topic of the dissertation corresponds to the specialty 7-06-0311-01 "Economics".Dissertation approval and information on the use of its resultsThe main provisions, conclusions and results of the dissertation were presented at the 75th scientific and technical conference of pupils, students and master's students, April 22-27, 2024 - Minsk: Belarusian State Technological University. Based on the materials of the dissertation research, an article was published on the topic"The problem of food security and the main directions of its solution in the People's Republic of China".Structure and volume of the dissertationThe dissertation consists of an introduction, a general description of the work, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references. Chapter 1 studies theoretical approaches to the study of the problem of food security, considers the concept of "food security" and its distinctive features, defines the stages of formation of modern approaches to this global problem, and formulates the risks and threats of violating the country's food security. Chapter 2 considers methodological approaches to assessing the food security of states and regions of the world, and provides an overview of the criteria for measuring the level of food security and self-sufficiency of the country in food. The third chapter includes a study of the state policy of China and the countries of the Eurasian region in the field of development of food security, substantiation of the main directions of trade and economic cooperation of the EAEU countries and China in the field of agriculture and ensuring food security of states. The work is presented on 98 pages. The volume occupied by 8 figures, 24 tables and a list of used literature, including 38 sources, is 18 pages.

Agricultural new-quality productive capacity is a key driver for enhancing food security and achieving agricultural modernization. Based on panel data from 30 provinces and unicipalities in mainland China from 2013 to 2022, this study constructed a dual fixed-effects and mediation effects model and employed empirical analysis methods to validate the impact of agricultural new-quality productive capacity on food security and its underlying mechanisms. Research results show that developing new high-quality production capacity in agriculture greatly improves food security, but with heterogeneity. In grain-producing regions and eastern regions, the enabling effect of agricultural new-quality productive capacity on food security is more pronounced. The mediating effect suggests that the development level of rural industrial chains and supply chains, as well as digital agriculture, play a mediating role in the process by which agricultural new-quality productive capacity promotes food security.

Food security is the cornerstone of national security. It is urgent to scientifically and reasonably construct a food security assessment system and objectively measure the actual development level of China’s food security. This is an important issue to enhance the modernization level of China’s food security governance system and governance capacity. Constructing evaluation indicators for food security from a theoretical perspective, analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in China’s food security, and expanding the theoretical perspective of food security research. At the same time, it provides ideas for the construction and improvement of China’s long-term food security guarantee mechanism, and also provides scientific reference for world food security. The food security level of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011–2021 was measured by using the Entropy weight TOPSIS model. The spatial characteristics and regional differences of China’s food security were analyzed using the Standard Deviation Ellipse technology, Moran’s index and Dagum Gini coefficient. The dynamic evolution process of food security level development was based on Markov Chain model. The food security scores of all regions in China showed three stages of fluctuation, balance and growth from 2011 to 2021. The spatial distribution of China’s food security level was developing from northeast to southwest, and shows spatial autocorrelation. Regional differences were the main source of regional disparities in China’s food security level. The evolution of China’s food security level had shown significant spatial self strengthening characteristics and spatial spillover effects. The spatial pattern of China’s food security presented a significant expansion feature along the ‘Northeast Southwest’ axis. The spatial differentiation of food security was showing a strengthening trend, and the regional coordination mechanism urgently needs to be improved. The root cause of regional differences lied in the imbalance between main production and main sales areas, with a dual lack of policy compensation and market mechanisms.

It is important to study the temporal and spatial change characteristics and the decreasing trend in cultivated land in China in the past decades, analyze the core influencing factors of the cultivated land decrease, and understand the regularity and trend in the cultivated land change. This study has important guiding significance for ensuring food security in China and optimizing and adjusting the pattern of land spatial development and utilization. Based on the data of China's urban cultivated land change from 1990 to 2022, this study analyzes the pattern of cultivated land protection and destruction in China from the perspective of the total cultivated land change, the increase and decrease evolution characteristics, and future trends and determines the main driving factors of cultivated land destruction in the process of urbanization. The results show the following: (1) The goal of the dynamic balance policy of cultivated land in China from 1990 to 2022 has been basically achieved, but regional differences still exist, which show a spatial pattern of planar contraction and belt growth. There is a new feature of a "southwest, northwest, and northeast" increase, while there is a "central" decrease. (2) Cultivated land has gradually shown a trend of growth rather than contraction, the cultivated land contraction shows a trend of crossing the "Hu-Huanyong Line" and moving westward, and the center of gravity of the cultivated land contraction has shifted to the periphery of the Chengdu-Chongqing area. The cultivated land growth shows a trend of moving southeast across the "Hu-Huanyong Line", and developed provinces such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang have gradually become the new centers of cultivated land growth. This coincides with the strict implementation of basic cultivated land protection policies in developed areas of China in recent years. (3) Factors such as the urban population size, economic level, agricultural scale, industrial structure, and other types of land scale have different degrees of impact on the destruction and restoration of cultivated land.

Under the requirements of developing new quality productivity, balancing green agricultural development with food security has become crucial for sustainable development, particularly in regions facing environmental constraints. This study investigates the coupling coordination relationship between agricultural green development efficiency and food security in China's agricultural system. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2010-2022), the study employs a comprehensive analytical framework combining the super-efficiency SBM-DEA model for efficiency measurement, the entropy TOPSIS method for food security evaluation, coupling coordination degree analysis, and multi-dimensional spatial analysis including regional difference decomposition, spatial correlation analysis, and kernel density estimation. The results reveal three distinct development phases: stable development (2010-2016, coordination degree 0.49-0.52), rapid improvement (2017-2018, peaking at 0.60), and stable adjustment (2019-2022, stabilizing around 0.54). Spatially, three high-value clusters have formed around Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (average coordination degree 0.68), the Yangtze River Delta (0.76), and Heilongjiang (0.81). Significant regional disparities persist, with eastern regions maintaining stable high-level development (average coordination degree >0.65) and western regions generally remaining below 0.50. Despite facing structural development constraints, Western regions possess latent comparative advantages in ecological agriculture. Gini coefficient decomposition, Moran's index analysis, and kernel density estimation collectively reveal that between-region differences dominate inequality sources (36.19%-49.99%), with strengthening spatial agglomeration effects creating path-dependent regional stratification. The findings suggest that achieving coordinated development requires differentiated regional strategies: technology transfer leadership for high-coordination regions, sustainable intensification support for transitional regions, and comprehensive structural interventions for low-coordination areas. These insights provide practical guidance for developing agricultural new quality productivity while ensuring food security.

Wheat is one of the most important crops globally. It also plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security in China. The production of wheat is highly sensitive to regional weather conditions, which could be further influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities all over the globe through atmospheric teleconnections. This research employed statistical methods to evaluate the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on winter wheat yield and compared it with the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results indicate that from January to March of the same year, the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) is typically associated with a decline in winter wheat yields in the southern North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Conversely, during the spring season, the positive phase of the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) is significantly correlated with an increase in winter wheat yields in these regions. Further analysis reveals that Indian Ocean SST variabilities primarily affect winter wheat yields by regulating precipitation and solar radiation. Moreover, we find that the significant impacts of IOBM and SIOD on winter wheat may surpass those of ENSO. These findings highlight the critical role of SST variabilities in determining winter wheat yields, elucidating its underlying mechanisms, and providing valuable scientific evidence to support food security efforts for policymakers and farmers.

Addressing climate change and food insecurity is crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with the enhancement of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency (ACEE) and the assurance of Food Security (FS) playing pivotal roles. This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the coordination between ACEE and FS across 31 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2021. The methodology employs the Super Slack-Based Model (SBM) and the Entropy- Weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (EW-TOPSIS) for ACEE and FS assessments, respectively, while utilizing the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) to gauge their coordination. This research applies Global spatial autocorrelation (GA), Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) clustering, and Markov chain analysis to investigate the spatial correlation characteristics and dynamic evolutionary probability of Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD). Additionally, a Combination Forecasting Model predicts CCD trends through 2030. The findings indicate positive trends in both ACEE and FS, albeit with significant regional disparities and a notable lag of FS behind ACEE improvement. The evolution of China's CCD from "barely coordinated" towards "primary coordination" is evident, with the northeastern and central regions outperforming their western and eastern counterparts. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced clustering of CCD, indicating the impact of spatial spillover effects. Markov chain analysis shows that provinces have at least a 71.4% probability of maintaining their current CCD status, revealing substantial system inertia. Projections point to increasing CCD levels across various regions, with the northeastern region expected to reach 0.827 by 2030 (a 5.72% increase from 2021), followed by the central (0.742), western (0.659), and eastern regions (0.638); however, regional imbalances persist, highlighting the need for concentrated efforts in areas experiencing CCD stagnation or decline. The study concludes with a call for region-specific development strategies, enhanced resource allocation and technological support, and a comprehensive policy framework that accounts for the long-term and spatial dimensions, aiming to facilitate equitable advancements in reducing agricultural carbon emissions and enhancing food security.

Merits of dietary patterns for China's future food security satisfying socioeconomic development and climate change adaptation.

BackgroundHybrid rice is pivotal for ensuring food security in China, yet challenges persist in its seed production. Sterile lines commonly face issues such as necking, gibberellins (GAs) are key regulators of panicle exsertion in rice, necessitating increased application of GAs during seed production, leading to elevated costs and environmental pollution. The novel photoperiod-thermosensitive genic male sterile line Shuang 1S addresses these limitations through its unique non-necked morphology and has super high yield of seed production.ResultsTo elucidate the regulatory pathways governing panicle exsertion and identify novel potential genes, this study assessed endogenous GA levels and performed RNA-seq analysis on two sterile lines, Shuang 1S and Han 2S, which displayed notable differences in panicle exsertion. Among 20 sterile lines examined, Shuang 1S demonstrated the highest panicle grains exsertion rate (91.03%) and the longest inverted first internode (28.24 cm). The findings revealed a 1.5-fold increase in GA content in Shuang 1S compared to Han 2S. Additionally, 2,147 up-regulated and 2,709 down-regulated genes were identified between SP (Shuang 1S) and HP (Han 2S), including 15 genes (10 up-regulated and 5 down-regulated) involved in GA biosynthesis and metabolism. KEGG enrichment analysis of the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) revealed significant enrichment in pathways including diterpenoid biosynthesis and plant hormone signal transduction, which are associated with gibberellic acid (GA) synthesis and catabolism.ConclusionsWe found that panicle exsertion was directly related to GAs content, and mainly enriched in diterpenoid biosynthesis, plant hormone signal transduction. These findings present new potential candidate genes for future investigations into the molecular mechanisms underlying the regulation of panicle exsertion in rice.

Reshaping Chinese Agrifood Systems to Enhance Human Nutrition: A Scoping Review of Research.

As the world's largest marine aquaculture country, China accounts for over 60% of the global aquaculture total production. The development of coastal aquaculture is of great significance for ensuring food security in China and even globally. Meanwhile, it also affects the ecological environment of coastal wetlands. Based on remote sensing images and socio-economic data from 1985 to 2023, and in line with the scope of coastal wetlands defined by The Ramsar Convention, we adopted an object-oriented classification method to explore the spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of coastal aquaculture ponds in China (excluding Taiwan Province, the same below). The results showed that the area of coastal aquaculture ponds in China generally presented an increasing trend from 1985 to 2023. The growth rate was 68.3 km2 per year from 1985 to 2010 and decreased to 17.1 km2 per year from 2010 to 2023. From 1985 to 2023, aquaculture ponds in different typical coastal regions of China exhibited obvious spatial variations. Specifically, the areas of aquaculture ponds in Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay and Beibu Gulf showed obvious expansion trends, while those in the Yellow River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The main sources of the expansion of aquaculture ponds were muddy beaches (38.8%), offshore waters (33.3%), and coastal wetland vegetation (14.1%). During the study period, there was a significant negative correlation between the area of mudflats and the expansion of aquaculture ponds, while built-up land, population size and GDP showed significant positive correlations with coastal aquaculture ponds. The expansion of coastal aquaculture ponds was mainly occupied coastal wetland, and it is necessary to coordinate the development and protection of coastal wetlands.

Integrated life cycle assessment of thallium-contaminated agricultural soil remediation in China.

Agricultural mechanization has benefitted food security in China, but carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions from fuel combustion are often overlooked. Here we show that emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from agricultural machinery increased nearly sevenfold and four- to sevenfold, respectively, during 1985-2020, driven largely by rapid advancement in the mechanization level. If unabated, annual emissions of CO2, PM2.5 and NOx from agricultural machinery in 2050 could reach 213.6 Mt, 55.4 Gg and 902.8 Gg, contributing ~21%, ~4% and ~17% of China's total emissions under a dual-carbon goal scenario, respectively. However, adoption of renewable energy sources could mitigate 65-70% of these emissions. Our study highlights that China's agricultural machinery could become a large source of emissions that-without mitigation-may hinder China's carbon neutrality targets and degrade air quality.

With the rapid development of China’s economy, people’s living standards and food requirements have also changed. Grain imports have significantly increased to meet the growing demand for food, which has increased the transmission effect between international and domestic grain prices and exposed the nation’s food security to greater risk. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the price transmission mechanism and its impact on food security in China. It utilizes data on the spot and futures prices of major international grains from 2013 to 2020, along with an analysis of the corn stockpiling system reform through a quasi-natural experiment. The results indicate that different grain varieties exhibit distinct supply and demand structures, while the degree to which they are affected by international prices varies significantly. Grains with higher levels of marketization and openness are more susceptible to fluctuations in international market prices. This transmission effect is closely related to the total import volume of the agricultural product and its substitutes. The soybean market, the most marketized and open market in China, is influenced by international prices the most significantly. Furthermore, corn prices have become more sensitive to international markets, especially since the reform of the stockpiling system, which has increased marketization. By contrast, as the main staples in China, wheat and rice are less affected by fluctuations in international market prices due to low marketization and openness. This study finds that the transmission mechanism between domestic and foreign grain markets is mainly established through international trade. It provides new empirical evidence for global price transmission theory and promotes international trade theory. In practice, the findings will assist in managing the effects of international grain price fluctuations on the domestic grain market as well as in formulating future policies to more effectively ensure a stable domestic grain supply.

Ensuring food security is an eternal issue in the development process of human society, and as a major global grain-producing country, China has played an important role in stabilizing world food security. However, China’s food security is facing new challenges in the context of the new development pattern, and the existing grain statistics are fragmented and not comprehensive enough to meet the needs of current food security assessment studies. In this study, we constructed the time-series China food security comprehensive assessment dataset (CFSAD), which includes five categories of grain, rice, wheat, maize and soybean, and covers five dimensions of the basic guarantee level, the market operation situation, the scientific and technological support capacity, the resource and environmental conditions, and the level of purchasing power, and includes fourteen indicators. Our dataset enables a more scientific and comprehensive assessment of China’s food security situation, which can provide data support for effective government policy making and academic research.

Yunnan is located on the southwest border of China, with a complex geographical environment and rich biodiversity, which is the first stop for many migratory pests to enter China. In recent years, Ceracris kiangsu has migrated into China through the China-Laos border line. The migratory C. kiangsu has shown typical characteristics of migratory locusts, which has seriously jeopardized the ecological security, biosecurity and food security of China. In order to prevent and control C. kiangsu from the source as soon as possible, this study used hotspot analysis and trajectory analysis to clarify the migration dynamics, source regions and migration corridors of C. kiangsu. The results showed that the migratory C. kiangsu was mainly distributed in the towns of Jiangcheng County, and the source regions were concentrated in Phongsaly, Laos. There are three cross-border migration corridors of C. kiangsu, among which the Laos-Niuluohe border migration corridor running through the entire migration cycle is the most important corridor. The study answered three key questions about the prevention and control of C. kiangsu. Ascertaining when C. kiangsu arrived at Yunnan, where it came from, and where the population then went will greatly improve the efficiency of the prevention and control of C. kiangsu as well as provide a theoretical basis for subsequent monitoring and early warning.

Estimation of N2O and CH4 emissions in field study and DNDC model under optimal nitrogen level in rice-wheat rotation system.

In the context of global climate change, the increasing frequency, scale, and intensity of droughts severely threaten food security of China. We established two drought indices (crop evapotranspiration-effective preci-pitation index (CEEP) and water deficit index (WDI)) based on meteorological parameters and crop growth-related data during growing season. The performance of those two indices was compared with that of four widely used ones, i.e., percentage of precipitation anomaly (PA), moisture index (MI), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). We further used the six indices to analyze the characteristics of typical drought events in the winter wheat region of North China and the spring maize region of Northeast China, as well as the spatiotemporal variations of droughts from 1979 to 2018. The results showed that CEEP and WDI effectively captured crop water scarcity and drought characteristics, and WDI was identified as the optimal drought index in more than one-third of provinces, mainly concentrated in Northeast and North China. In terms of temporal variation, based on the WDI, there was no significant trend of drought events in the winter wheat region in North China and the spring maize region in Northeast China. In terms of spatial variation, the performance of the drought indices differed. In the winter wheat zone of North China, PA, MI, and SPI detected more wetting characteristics, while SPEI, CEEP, and WDI detected more drying characteristics. In the spring maize zone of Northeast China, the indices performed more consistency, with wetting trends observed in Suihua, Daqing, and Hegang while drying trends in western part of Jilin and Liaoning, southern Liaoning, western Heilongjiang, and southern Sanjiang Plain. WDI was suitable for crop water deficit analysis in Northeast and North China and could accurately reflect the spatial distribution of drying or wetting trends, which would provide support for water resource management and decision-making in agricultural production.

In recent years, quantity and quality of cultivated land in black soil region in Northeast China have changed with the continuous strengthening of the breadth and depth of land development, directly affecting food security in China. In this study, land-use data based on geo-information Tupu in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were selected and the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land in Northeast China was analyzed. Meanwhile, driving factors affecting the changes of cultivated land over the past 30 years was also explored. The results indicate that the net increase of cultivated land in the study area is 127.72 km2 (accounting for 0.038% of the study area) from 1990 to 2020, and a trend of “increase-decrease-increase” over the past 30 years can be obtained. The change of cultivated land mainly due to the mutual conversion between cultivated land and forest (net increase: 6024.76 km2), grassland (net increase: 734.08 km2) and construction land (net decrease: 7393. 42 km2). The conversions of cultivated land and forest, grassland and construction land are mainly located in the northeastern, mid-western and southern, and eastern of the study area, and the center of cultivated land within the study area shifted towards the southeast from 1990 to 2010, while the center showed a convoluted trend (moving towards the northwest) during the 2010–2020 period, but the migration speed gradually slowed down. The spatiotemporal pattern changes of cultivated land in the study area from 1990 to 2020 are the comprehensive effects of natural environmental and socio-economic factors, among which slope, elevation, and annual precipitation are the main contributing factors. The conclusion of this study will provide scientific reference for the study of cultivated land utilization and protection in the black soil region in Northeast China.