Food Security In Areas Research Articles

Determinants of Household Food Security Based On The Status of Human Development Index (HDI) in the Province of West Nusa Tenggara

This study aims to determine the determinants or factors that affect household food security in areas with moderate HDI status and areas with high HDI status. Based on the data of the National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) March 2021 from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), this study is conducted by using multinomial logistic regression method to archieve the objective. The results show that poverty status, dummy recipients of the BPNT program, presence of toilets and presence of toddlers have significant effect to the food security household in areas with high HDI status. While in areas with moderate HDI status, the factors that affect household food security are poverty status, gender of the head of the household, classification of residential area, presence of toilets and presence of toddlers. From this research it is necessary to apply policies that can strengthen household food security in both the moderata HDI and high HDI areas, especially in poor households with toddlers.

Productivity of Intercropping with Tomato and Basil under Different Planting Densities at Wondo Genet, Ethiopia

Intensive crop cultivation like inter-cropping is a reasonable agronomic practice to fulfill and sustain food security in areas where there is land shortage like that of Wondo Genet areas. An experiment was conducted at Wondo Genet Agricultural Research Center experimental farm to examine productivity and economic return. The experiment was a 2 × 4 factorial arrangement in RCBD consisting of ten treatments: two basil row arrangements; one tomato row alternating with one basil row (1T:1B) and one tomato row alternating with two basil rows (1T:2B) and four basil population densities (66666, 50000, 33333 and 16666 plants ha -1 ). Results of the study indicated that the intercropping of tomato with basil had a total LER value greater than one which showed the advantage of intercropping over sole cropping of each crop. Intercropping of tomato with basil at 100% population density gave a total LER value of 1.9 and MAI value of 194600 ETB ha -1 , respectively. Therefore, basil with a density of 33,333 plants ha -1 at a spacing of 100 cm × 30cm by 1T:1B row arrangements could be recommended for intercropping with tomato in the target area, based on its better compatibility, productivity, and economic benefit. Keywords: Economic return, Land Equivalent Ratio, Monetary Advantage Index DOI: 10.7176/ALST/91-03 Publication date: January 31 st 2022

Linking Agricultural Index Insurance with Factors That Influence Maize Yield in Rain-Fed Smallholder Farming Systems

Weather extremes pose substantial threats to food security in areas where the main source of livelihood is rain-fed crop production. In most of these areas, agricultural index insurance (AII) is recognized as being capable of securitizing food production by providing safety nets against weather-induced crop losses. Unfortunately, however, AII does not indemnify farmers for non-weather-related crop losses. This study investigates how this gap can be filled by exploring strategies through which AII can be linked with non-weather factors that influence crop production. We do this by using an improvised variable ranking methodology to identify these factors in the O.R. Tambo District Municipality, South Africa. Results show that key agrometeorological variables comprising surface moisture content, growing degree-days, and precipitation influence maize yield even under optimal weather conditions, while seed variety, fertilizer application rate, soil pH, and ownership of machinery play an equally important role. This finding is important because it demonstrates that although AII focuses more on weather elements, there are non-weather variables that may expose farmers to production risk even under optimal weather conditions. As such, linking AII with critical non-weather, yield-determining factors can be a better risk management strategy.

Potential distribution of Schistocerca gregaria gregaria in southwestern Asia

The northern subspecies of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria gregaria has recently expanded into western Asia. It poses a serious threat to food security in areas that are already socially and politically unstable. Its further expansion into other parts of southwestern Asia is an issue of great concern (e.g., China). We assembled S. g. gregaria occurrence records that were accumulated by the Food and Agriculture Organization and environmental variables that summarized aspects of climate, soil condition and vegetation. We predicted the potential distribution of S. g. gregaria via the fine‐tuned Maxent model and ensemble ecological niche model approaches. The models predicted that India and other southwestern Asian countries face high risk of S. g. gregaria invasion because of the presence of suitable habitats and the absence of natural barriers that would prevent S. g. gregaria dispersal into these areas. By contrast, the risk of S. g. gregaria invasion in China is low because the suitability values were very low. Moreover, the Tianshan Mountains, the Kunlun Mountains and the Himalaya Mountains may act as natural barriers against S. g. gregaria dispersal. Responses of S. g. gregaria to these environmental variables were modelled using fine‐tuned Maxent models.

Farmer Preparedness for Building Resilient Agri-Food Systems: Lessons From the 2015/2016 El Niño Drought in Malawi

Across sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is leading to increasingly erratic weather patterns that challenge farming practices, particularly for smallholder farmers. Preparing farmers for these changes and increasing their resilience to extreme weather events is critical for food security in areas where populations are increasing. The El Niño event of 2015/16 led to drought conditions in Malawi which are expected to become more normal in the future. This resulted in widespread crop failure and the need for external food aid. The experiences of Malawian farmers during this time creates an opportunity to identify areas where adaptations in land management practices as part of resilience building initiatives can prepare farmers for future climates. This paper presents results of household surveys and interviews of 201 farmers from a case study in southern Malawi. Half of the farmers surveyed practice Conservation Agriculture (CA), a Climate Smart Agriculture technology that increased resilience to this drought event. The majority of households relied on agriculture for all their livelihood streams, indicating that diversification away from sole dependence on agriculture would increase resilience. Our study shows that poorer, female farmers are less likely to practice CA than wealthier male farmers. Results also illustrate that while farmers had access to seasonal weather forecasts, a key tool to guide land preparation and planting, they remained reluctant to believe them or to amend cropping or land management practices. Agricultural extension services within Malawi can play a vital role in preparing farmers for future extreme weather events and ensuring forecast communication link to predicted agricultural impacts and land management actions for building resilience into agricultural systems. Extension services need to focus on supporting poorer female farmers to adopt CA practices and providing farmers with the tools and knowledge to respond effectively to seasonal and sub-seasonal climate information.

Indigenous Farming Techniques Affecting House Hold Food Security in Lower Nyakach Division in Kisumu County, Kenya

The Global community has made a commitment through the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 to ending hunger and achieving food security and improved nutrition by 2030. However, recent evidence points to increasing hunger and food insecurity in the world. A consortium comprising the World Food Organization (FAO) estimates that the number of undernourished people has increased from 784 million in 2015 to 821 million people in 2018, with around 22.8% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) facing chronic food deprivation. Whereas adoption of indigenous farming practices aligned to local climatic knowledge has recently been touted as a panacea to food crop production, the level of household food insecurity in some regions in Kenya keeps rising. In Lower Nyakach division of Kisumu County, Kenya, there has been a steady decline in Maize crop production over the last five year, with each household receiving approximately five bags of maize from their farms to feed an average of five persons per household each year. This questions the effectiveness of indigenous farming practices in influencing household food security in the area. The purpose of the study was to assess the influence of indigenous farming practices on household food security among households in Lower Nyakach Division of Kisumu County, Kenya. Specific objectives were to: assess the influence of indigenous pest control practices; establish the influence of indigenous ploughing methods, and to determine the influence of cultivation systemson food security among households in Lower Nyakach Division.The study was guided by the observation learning theory which depicts learning to be a function of observing, retaining and replicating behaviour executed by others. This was a descriptive research design on a target population of 3756 households. The researcher sampled 10% (250) households which was stratified based on population in each location. Questionnaire was used to collect data from household heads while interview schedule was used to collect data from agricultural officers and CBO/NGO leaders who have been assisting the farming families with inputs. Findings showed that indigenous farming techniques used by the households have determined food security to a moderate extent (M=2.9; SD=1.246) in the area. Pest control (65.6%; M=3.71), method of ploughing (48.3%; M=2.86) and adopted season of cultivation (45.6%; M=2.75) all had influence on food security. It was concluded that pest control being a major determinant of food security, the families in the study area have depended on multiple weeding using hand tools to control pests and weeds as opposed to mechanical or use of pesticides and herbicides. The study recommends that the farming families should be supported with sufficient farm implements as well as pesticides/herbicides. Further research should be done on contribution of farm implements subsidies to local farmers on household food security in rural areas

Survey Of Wild Edible Plants Of Dhanakarkulam Panchayath, Tirunelveli District, Tamil Nadu, India

The present study was carried out in the Dhanakarkulam panchayath to document the diversity, indigenous uses and availability status of wild edible plants. The inhabitants of the region are dependent up to a large extent on wild resources for their food and other daily needs.. The study revealed a total of 51 species, 42 genera and 27 families of wild edible plants were recorded in the study area. The total number of plant species recorded as medicinal and wild food plants indicated that the study area has substantial amount of useful plants and diverse source of medicinal and wild food plants. The diversity of these medicinal andwild edible of these medicinal and wild edible plants might be due to the suitability of environmental condition for different types of plant species. This finding is a good indicator for the presence of a considerable diversity of plant species is the study area. The study will be helpful in developing a comprehensive data base on wild plant resources, strengthening the food security in area and in conserving the traditional knowledge for the prosperity of the remote areas.

Bushmeat biogeochemistry: hunting tropical mammals alters ecosystem phosphorus budgets.

Wild meat (or 'bushmeat') hunting is nearly ubiquitous across the tropics and is very often unsustainable-driving declines and extirpation of numerous mammal populations. Loss of these animals can alter the transport of nutrients within and between ecosystems. But whether the physical removal of vertebrate carcasses and the nutrients that they store can reduce overall nutrient availability in ecosystems has been little explored. At 32 sites on three continents, we show that annual phosphorus (P) loss via mammal exploitation was low relative to the rate of atmospheric P deposition. But at four sites in Africa and Southeast Asia, removal of P in the skeletons of hunted mammals exceeded the atmospheric input of this nutrient by 10-fold or more. Because P is the growth-limiting nutrient for many tropical terrestrial ecosystems and certain large mammals, the imbalance created by the removal of mammal biomass under very high hunting scenarios could reduce ecosystem carrying capacity if no compensatory P additions occur in the system. This biogeochemical perspective on bushmeat exploitation raises further concerns about harvest sustainability and human food security in areas where hunting rates are high and ecosystem P inputs low.

Assembled genomic and tissue-specific transcriptomic data resources for two genetically distinct lines of Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp).

Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) is an important legume crop for food security in areas of low-input and smallholder farming throughout Africa and Asia. Genetic improvements are required to increase yield and resilience to biotic and abiotic stress and to enhance cowpea crop performance. An integrated cowpea genomic and gene expression data resource has the potential to greatly accelerate breeding and the delivery of novel genetic traits for cowpea. Extensive genomic resources for cowpea have been absent from the public domain; however, a recent early release reference genome for IT97K-499-35 ( Vigna unguiculatav1.0, NSF, UCR, USAID, DOE-JGI, http://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/) has now been established in a collaboration between the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and University California (UC) Riverside. Here we release supporting genomic and transcriptomic data for two transformable cowpea varieties, IT97K-499-35 and IT86D-1010. The transcriptome resource includes six tissue-specific datasets for each variety, with particular emphasis on reproductive tissues that extend and support the V. unguiculata v1.0 reference. Annotations have been included in our resource to allow direct mapping to the v1.0 cowpea reference. The resource described here is supported by downloadable raw and assembled sequence data.

Strategy to Maintain Food Security in the Area of Flood Hazard in Karawang Regency

Rice yield in Java Island as national rice supplier in order to support food security. Java has a dense population, causing very high pressure on land use. The need for housing, roads and industrial infrastructure encourages the conversion of agricultural land for other land uses. This study aims to formulate strategies for the purpose of maintaining food security in flood-prone areas. Karawang Regency is a rice barn of West Java Province and is also a frequent area of flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to map the spread of flood-prone areas and to analyze land use linkages, rice productivity, population and food needs in the study area. Strategies for maintaining spatial food security are by mapping land cover multi years and mapping the flood hazard areas using high-resolution DEM data. Land cover mapping using RBI Map Scale 1: 25,000 the Year 2000 and Citra Landsat-8 and Spot-6 Year 2015. Wetland Area Year 2000 is 120,371 (62.83%), land area Year 2015 is 98,462 ha (51.40%). The average rice field area caused by flooding reaches 219.84 ha/year, if the productivity of 6.9 tons/ha annually loses rice production on average 1,517 tons. Food security in the research area is still maintained from various pressures of land use. There is unfulfilled support for national food security with the obligation to provide 1.5 million tons of paddy stock per year. The selection of strategies in maintaining food security in the research area is to tighten supervision in licensing in favor of the protection of paddy fields. The professionalism of agricultural extension resources will be able to increase rice productivity.

Assembled genomic and tissue-specific transcriptomic data resources for two genetically distinct lines of Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp)

Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) is an important legume crop for food security in areas of low-input and smallholder farming throughout Africa and Asia. Genetic improvements are required to increase yield and resilience to biotic and abiotic stress and to enhance cowpea crop performance. An integrated cowpea genomic and gene expression data resource has the potential to greatly accelerate breeding and the delivery of novel genetic traits for cowpea. Extensive genomic resources for cowpea have been absent from the public domain; however, a recent early release reference genome for IT97K-499-35 ( Vigna unguiculata v1.0, NSF, UCR, USAID, DOE-JGI, http://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/) has now been established in a collaboration between the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and University California (UC) Riverside. Here we release supporting genomic and transcriptomic data for two transformable cowpea varieties, IT97K-499-35 and IT86D-1010. The transcriptome resource includes six tissue-specific datasets for each variety, with particular emphasis on reproductive tissues that extend and support the V. unguiculata v1.0 reference. Annotations have been included in our resource to allow direct mapping to the v1.0 cowpea reference. The resource described here is supported by downloadable raw and assembled sequence data.

Conservation Concerns of Small-Scale Fisheries: By-Catch Impacts of a Shrimp and Finfish Fishery in a Sri Lankan Lagoon

By-catch is considered a significant problem in large-scale fisheries yet in small-scale fisheries (SSF), employing >99% of the world's fishers, there is limited quantitative understanding of by-catch, and catches in general. We provide an assessment of by-catch from fishing gears (fyke, trawl, set trammel & drift trammel nets) commonly used in small-scale fisheries across the globe, using a representative Sri Lankan case study and placing this in the context of local resource use patterns. We reveal evidence of how SSF generate significant finfish by-catch with potentially significant ecological impacts. Fishers targeting shrimp (fyke, trawl and drift trammel nets) caught more non-target species than global averages (44%, 44% and 67% by weight respectively). Fishers targeting finfish (set trammel nets) caught fewer non-target species. We found that by-catch depends more on target species and gear type, supporting suggestions that SSF are not “inherently more sustainable” than their large-scale counterparts and a collective effort is required for an improved understanding of the impacts of SSF. This study highlights an additional issue of valuable food fish discards, raising questions about fisheries exploitation in the context of food security in areas where poverty and food insecurity are prevalent.

Assembled genomic and tissue-specific transcriptomic data resources for two genetically distinct lines of Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp).

Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) is an important legume crop for food security in areas of low-input and smallholder farming throughout Africa and Asia. Genetic improvements are required to increase yield and resilience to biotic and abiotic stress and to enhance cowpea crop performance. An integrated cowpea genomic and gene expression data resource has the potential to greatly accelerate breeding and the delivery of novel genetic traits for cowpea. Extensive genomic resources for cowpea have been absent from the public domain; however, a recent early release reference genome for IT97K-499-35 ( Vigna unguiculatav1.0, NSF, UCR, USAID, DOE-JGI, http://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/) has now been established in a collaboration between the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and University California (UC) Riverside. Here we release supporting genomic and transcriptomic data for IT97K-499-35 and a second transformable cowpea variety, IT86D-1010. The transcriptome resource includes six tissue-specific datasets for each variety, with particular emphasis on reproductive tissues that extend and support the V. unguiculata v1.0 reference. Annotations have been included in our resource to allow direct mapping to the v1.0 cowpea reference. Access to this resource provided here is supported by raw and assembled data downloads.

A regional evaluation of plastic film mulching for improving crop yields on the Loess Plateau of China

The plastic film mulching (PM) management is being increasingly adopted in the vast rainfed farming regions of China, especially in the Loess Plateau, to obtain high yields. Although many studies have confirmed that PM increases yields and water use efficiency of crops, identifying the most suitable areas for PM and evaluating its performance in improving crop yields on a regional scale have received little attention. A process-based model using 30 years of historical climate data (1980–2010) was applied to evaluate PM crop production improvement in the Loess Plateau, where the annual average air temperature is −9 to 15 °C and precipitation is 100–1000 mm among study points. The well-calibrated and validated model explained 62% of maize production variance. PM showed increases of 4%–254%, with an average 58% increase, in comparison with unmulched management (CK) yields across the study area. Maize production showed a marked increase in the cold and dry western Loess Plateau and only a slight increase in the warm and wet south-eastern Loess Plateau where soil temperature and moisture conditions are already conducive to crop production. When compared with CK inside study area, the average yield using PM increased 66% in the area with precipitation less than 600 mm versus only 20% in the area with precipitation greater than 600 mm. Similarly, PM increased the yield by 73% and 37% over CK in areas with annual average air temperature less than 9 °C and greater than 9 °C, respectively. PM not only increases yield in existing cultivation areas; it also extends the maize suitable arable land. Specifically, PM enabled 2.77% of this study area to produce mature maize where no yield was achieved through CK. PM also led to lower interannual variation and stable yields of maize in 87.75% of the area. However, 9.52% of the area with low precipitation (average precipitation 230 mm) and higher temperatures (average temperature 8.0 °C) showed higher interannual yield variation in PM than CK. Among the areas studied, those with precipitation between 300 and 600 mm, annual average temperatures of 3–9 °C or an aridity index of 0.2–0.4 (semiarid zone) were determined as the most suitable for PM management. Thus, PM offers a potential solution to the problem of food security in areas with similar conditions.

Evaluation of barnyard millet diversity in central Himalayan region for environmental stress tolerance

SUMMARYThe mountain ecosystem of the Central Himalayan Region is known for its diversity of crops and their wild relatives. In spite of adverse climatic conditions, this region is endowed with a rich diversity of millets. Hence, the aim of the present study was to explore, collect, conserve and evaluate the diversity of barnyard millet (Echinochloa frumentacea) to find out the extent of diversity available in different traits and the traits responsible for abiotic stress tolerance, and to identify trait-specific accessions for crop improvement and also for the cultivation of millets in the region as well as in other similar agro-ecological regions. A total of 178 accessions were collected and evaluated for a range of morpho-physiological and biochemical traits. Significant variability was noted in days to 50% flowering, days to 80% maturity, 1000 seed weight and yield potential of the germplasm. These traits are considered to be crucial for tailoring new varieties for different agro-climatic conditions. Variations in biochemical traits such as lipid peroxidation (0·552–7·421 nmol malondialdehyde formed/mg protein/h), total glutathione (105·270–423·630 mmol/g fresh weight) and total ascorbate (4·980–9·880 mmol/g fresh weight) content indicate the potential of collected germplasm for abiotic stress tolerance. Principal component analysis also indicated that yield, superoxide dismutase activity, plant height, days to 50% flowering, catalase activity and glutathione content are suitable traits for screening large populations of millet and selection of suitable germplasm for crop improvement and cultivation. Trait-specific accessions identified in the present study could be useful in crop improvement programmes, climate-resilient agriculture and improving food security in areas with limited resources.

Distribution of heavy metals and metalloids in bulk and particle size fractions of soils from coal-mine brownfield and implications on human health

Heavy metals (HMs) and metalloids migrate into their surroundings, thus increasing environmental risks and threatening human health. Current studies on coal-mine brownfields, however, have not thoroughly investigated soil-associated HMs and metalloids produced by coal mining. Therefore, this study explored the spatial and particle fraction distribution and human health implications of HMs and metalloids. The soil-associated HMs and metalloids are Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Mercury (Hg), Manganese (Mn), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), Scandium (Sc), Titanium (Ti) and Zinc (Zn). Results showed that Cd, Cu, Pb, and Ni were enriched in bulk soils. Cadmium, Cu and Pb from anthropogenic source were mainly found at entrance roadsides and in sites closest to coal mines. HMs and metalloids primarily accumulated in fine fractions (<1, 1–5, and 5–10 μm). Moreover, HM and metalloid loadings substantially accumulated in the 75–250 μm and 250–1000 μm fractions. Most fine soil fractions showed moderate to strong potential ecological risks, whereas all the coarse particle fractions (50–75, 75–250, and 250–1000 μm) presented slight potential ecological risk. Exposure to soil-associated HMs and metalloids mainly occurred via ingestion. The total non-carcinogenic risks to children and adults fell below the safe level of 1, whereas the total carcinogenic risks to these individuals were higher than that of the maximum acceptable level set by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1 × 10 −4). The total carcinogenic risk was mainly contributed by Cd and Ni through ingestion and dermal access. Therefore, hygiene and food security in areas should be emphasized.

Assessing the Factors Influencing Women Attainment of Household Food Security in Ikwuano Local Government Area of Abia State, Nigeria

This study assessed the factors influencing the attainment of household food security in Ikwuano Local Government Area (LGA) of Abia State, Nigeria. The study specifically examined the socioeconomic characteristics of women in the study area; ascertained income generating activities embarked upon by women in the area and examined factors influencing the role of women in achieving food security in the area. A total of one hundred and twenty respondents were sampled using simple random sampling procedure. Data collection was facilitated by the use of structured questionnaire, designed and validated for the purpose. Data analysis utilized descriptive statistics such as frequency counts, percentages as well ordinary least squares regression analysis. Results revealed that majority of the respondents(58.4%) were within their active&nbsp; and innovative years,aged between 40-59 years. Only a small proportion of the respondents (12.5%) had no formal education. Results further showed that majority of the respondents (80%) were engaged in farming as their primary occupation and income generating activity. Majority of the respondents (93.3%) were married. Furthermore, results showed that majority of the respondents (68.3%) did not belong to cooperative societies. While 65% of the respondents had no access to credits, 71.7% had no contact with extension service. Results of the regression analysis indicate that age, which was linked to years of practical experience in farming as well as the status of the women were positively related to the attainment of household food security among the respondents and were significant at 5% level. In like manner access to credit as well as access to extension services were also positively related to the achievement of household food security and were significant at 1% and 10% levels respectively. It was recommended that constraints that limit women&rsquo;s access to credit as well as extension services be removed as a means of encouraging the women increase their agricultural production capacities. This will enable them contribute much more meaningfully towards achieving household food security.Keywords: Food security, gender, food availability, food affordability

Food security and seasonal climate information: Kenyan challenges

This article examines challenges to food security in areas especially vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change, and the potential contribution of seasonal climate forecasting. Drawing on long-term study of the way environmental information is developed and circulates, and on recent fieldwork in Western Kenya, the article describes how climate variability exacerbates food insecurity; the kinds of climate information that are now being developed; and the kinds of technologies, organizations, and expertise that will be needed if new forms of climate information are to benefit vulnerable populations. Findings indicate that new forms of expertise need to be developed at all scales, and that linkage among stakeholders and between organizations functioning at different scales will be a considerable challenge.

Land degradation, drought and food security in a less‐favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio‐economic model with market imperfections

AbstractThis paper presents a bio‐economic model of Andit Tid, a severely degraded crop‐livestock farming system with high population density and good market access in the highlands of Ethiopia. Land degradation, population growth, stagnant technology, and drought threaten food security in the area. Drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years. The bio‐economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation, population growth, market imperfections and increased risk of drought on household production, welfare and food security. We find that the indirect effects of drought on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought. Provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser, although risky in itself, may lead to increased grain production and improved household welfare and food security. Provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser.

Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections

This paper presents a bio-economic model of Andit Tid, a severely degraded crop–livestock farming system with high population density and good market access in the highlands of Ethiopia. Land degradation, population growth, stagnant technology, and drought threaten food security in the area. Drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years. The bio-economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation, population growth, market imperfections and increased risk of drought on household production, welfare and food security. We find that the indirect effects of drought on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought. Provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser, although risky in itself, may lead to increased grain production and improved household welfare and food security. Provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser.