Surge In Food Prices Research Articles

How Do Household Coping Strategies Evolve With Increased Food Insecurity? An Examination of Nigeria's Food Price Shock of 2015–2018

ABSTRACTFaced with a significant devaluation of its currency and a surge in food prices, the Nigerian government prohibited the use of foreign currency for food imports. This essentially blocked the importation of numerous food items under the guise of stimulating the domestic output of these staples. Consequently, food prices in Nigeria increased despite a global decline in food prices, and the incidence and severity of food insecurity escalated. This study examines the changes in the types and severity of coping mechanisms for food insecurity resulting from the food price shock caused by the oil price crash, currency devaluation, and restrictions on foreign exchange. Nigeria's General Household Survey Panel data from 2012 and 2015, during periods of high oil prices, is compared with data from 2018 when oil prices had remained low, the currency had been devalued, and the treasury had been depleted. Alongside detailed descriptive statistics, logistic and hurdle regressions are employed for statistical analysis. Findings indicate a rise in the percentage of Nigerian households grappling with food insecurity from 2015 to 2018. During this period, 68.7% of households resorted to at least one coping mechanism, 31.8% adopted six or more coping strategies, and 43.2% resorted to severe coping strategies. The issue stems not primarily from natural disasters or conflicts but from a failure in macroeconomic and agricultural economic policies. Our findings confirm that these policies come at great cost, particularly to female‐headed households, single‐parent households, households headed by elderly people, and other vulnerable populations, pushing them deeper into food insecurity.

Unveiling the climate–conflict nexus: Examining the influence of weather extremes on conflict emergence in the Philippine Bangsamoro

Extreme weather events have been closely associated with the escalation of violent conflicts. This article introduces empirical evidence that underscores the vulnerability of conflict emergence to extended deficit rainfall values within Maguindanao, a province situated in the Bangsamoro region of the southern Philippines. Using a combination of satellite data, hydrological analysis and an examination of conflict databases, our study unveils the pivotal role played by protracted droughts and intensified precipitation in fostering human insecurity, consequently elevating the likelihood of violent conflicts. Our research spotlights the climate–conflict nexus within this relatively less-explored geographical area. Our findings underscore a robust association between instances of violent conflicts, protracted deficits or episodes of intense rainfall, and the subsequent surge in food prices. Notably, disruptions in food prices align temporally with heightened participation in violent conflicts by individuals. In essence, the emergence of violent conflicts exacerbates fragility, thereby engendering a vicious cycle that intertwines climate change, conflict dynamics and the pursuit of peace.

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Nigeria

In Nigeria, inflation dynamics and food prices have been a major concern for policymakers and the public alike. In recent years, the country has experienced a surge in food prices, which has contributed to the rise in inflation. This study employs the linear autoregressive distributive lag model to investigate inflation dynamics and food prices in Nigeria, with a specific focus on identifying the fundamental factors driving the increase in food prices. Using annual data from 1990 to 2021, the study examines the relationships between oil price, exchange rate, money supply, and government expenditure, and their varying long- and short-term effects on inflation and food prices in Nigeria. The Bound test cointegration results confirm that the variables are cointegrated, highlighting the presence of a long-term relationship among them. Our findings reveal that higher oil prices exert a short-term large positive influence on food prices, but their long-term impact is negligible. Conversely, increased money supply significantly impacts food prices in both the short and long term. Additionally, an increased exchange rate inversely impacts food prices in the long-term. These results highlight crucial policy implications for curbing food price increases, reducing the welfare effects while, maintaining lower prices and ensuring its sustainability.

How to understand high global food price? Using SHAP to interpret machine learning algorithm.

The global food prices have surged to historical highs, and there is no consensus on the reasons behind this round of price increases in academia. Based on theoretical analysis, this study uses monthly data from January 2000 to May 2022 and machine learning models to examine the root causes of that period's global food price surge and global food security situation. The results show that: Firstly, the increase in the supply of US dollars and the rise in oil prices during pandemic are the two most important variables affecting food prices. The unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy of the US dollar is the primary factor driving the global food price surge, and the alternating impact of oil prices and excessive US dollar liquidity are key features of the surge. Secondly, in the context of the global food shortage, the impact of food production reduction and demand growth expectations on food prices will further increase. Thirdly, attention should be paid to potential agricultural import supply chain risks arising from international uncertainty factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has profoundly impacted the global agricultural supply chain, and crude oil and fertilizers have gradually become the main driving force behind the rise in food prices.

Food commodity price changes and consumer welfare in Bangladesh: Valuable lessons for today

AbstractThe recent rise in global food prices threatens many countries worldwide, especially the vulnerable populations. Viable coping strategies can only be designed based on the important policy lessons learned from the experiences of these countries in confronting the similar shocks of 2007–2011. However, the disproportionate effects of these events and the impacts of policy responses remain largely unexplored. We examine the impact of a food price surge and the effectiveness of various mitigating policies in Bangladesh, one of the most populous, densely populated countries in the world that is plagued by poverty. Specifically, we combine individual‐level expenditure survey data with recent advances in consumer theory to examine the welfare consequences across income groups and geographic areas of the country over 2000–2016. Our empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that the brunt of the price surge was borne by relatively less affluent and rural households, and government poverty alleviation programmes were largely ineffective.

Enhancing domestic consumption to deliver food security in a volatile world

Abstract Non-technical summary Global conflicts and the pandemic reveal the risks of food import reliance. In the UK, pandemic, Brexit, and Ukraine war caused food price spikes. To bolster food security, the UK needs to produce and consume more domestically, including nutrient-rich bivalve mollusks. Current mollusk exports hinder domestic food sources. Promoting domestic consumption through convenient, attractive products and taxing unhealthy processed foods can help. Reducing reliance on food trade is crucial amid global instability and climate change. The UK's mollusk export issues illustrate food security risks of excessive reliance on international trade. Technical summary Here we examine the critical issue of food security in the context of international volatility, emphasizing the risks associated with an excessive reliance on food trade. The UK's experience with disruptions caused by the pandemic, Brexit, and the Ukraine war, resulting in a significant surge in food prices, serves as a pertinent case study. The research underscores the potential benefits of increasing domestic food production and consumption to enhance resilience against global events. The UK's current production, export, and import statistics are analyzed, with a particular focus on the fish and seafood sector. The study highlights the bivalve mollusk industry, such as blue mussels, as an example of an underutilized domestic resource. Bivalve mollusks are rich in essential micronutrients, yet their consumption in the UK is low compared to other countries. We propose strategies to boost domestic demand, including incorporating bivalve meat into processed food products, utilizing advanced technologies to improve taste and texture, and government intervention through taxes on unhealthy processed foods to promote better nutritional profiles. In summary, the study emphasizes the need for greater self-sufficiency in food production to mitigate vulnerabilities resulting from an overreliance on food trade in the context of international conflicts and climate change. Social media summary Failure to effectively utilize domestic food resources and overreliance on trade threatens food security in an increasingly volatile world.

Improving Food Security for Vulnerable Communities

The food crisis of 2007-2008 and the renewed surge in food prices in 2010-2011 have exposed deep structural problems in the global food system and the need to increase food production. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as existing "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Despite Nepal has no worse food and nutrition security situation among SAARC countries, there are some districts where food is always in shortage. Also some ethnic groups who are bit away from this type of food security system gaining. Some activities are also done by some organizations to them but in few needed term only. The explicit constitutional recognition of the right to food and other related provisions in articles 36 and 42 of the new constitution will be instrumental for implementing food security programs in the country. The food security for the poor people is based on sustainable food production. Many proven technologies and improved practices have promise to boost agricultural production and ensure food security in developing countries like Nepal. Food and Nutrition security program (FANUSEP) is one of the flagship programs of Agriculture Development Strategy 2015-2035 (ADS), which is at the first phase of its implementation. It aims at improving food and nutrition security of the most vulnerable groups of the population

Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India

This paper studies the impact of high global rice and wheat prices on household welfare in India. I use the 2007–08 surge in global food prices and household share of area under rice and wheat at the baseline to show that rice and wheat cultivating households gain from high prices. These welfare gains mainly accrue to net producers. I observe that net producer households were able to maintain their per capita spending and consumption of rice and wheat by decreasing consumption of market purchased rice and wheat and increasing consumption of government-subsidized rice and wheat. Net consumers, on the other hand, experienced a decline in the total per capita consumption of rice and wheat even though they substituted their market purchases with homegrown produce and subsidized grains. The role of in-kind food transfers in insulating households from high prices was evident for both net producers and consumers. The combined effect of substitution within food staples from different sources was that both net consumer and producer households could maintain their total calorie intakes and resist an increase in the total food expenditure. Finally, I find evidence that high rice and wheat prices induced working-age adult males in net producer households to increase total workdays and workdays on their own farm.

The Impact of World Food Price on Domestic Inflation: Evidence from Sri Lanka

Food price contributes the largest share in the general price index in developing countries. Food prices have been increasing in Sri Lanka since 2003. The recent growth of global food prices affects the welfare of poor people, consumers and producers. In Sri Lanka large segment of the population spends more than 50 percent of their income on food; this study investigates and assesses how international food price surge affects domestic inflation process in Sri Lanka. The empirical statistical results are derived by using a battery of parametric and non-parametric econometric techniques using monthly data of price series for the period from 2003M1-2020M12. The Johansen’s co-integration analysis results confirm that global food prices and domestic prices are co-integrated therefore Sri Lankan government needs to develop a safety net program for the poor and a poverty reduction strategy. Policy attention needs to shift towards efforts to increase food production in Sri Lanka. The results of the study have various policy implications of monetary policy, food and agriculture policy and trade policy for Sri Lanka.

Income inequality and famine mortality: Evidence from the Finnish famine of the 1860s

AbstractThis article examines whether economic inequality intensified the adverse effects of harvest, price, and income shocks during a famine. Using a parish‐level longitudinal dataset from the Finnish famine of the 1860s, it shows that a substantial proportion of the excess mortality experienced during the famine resulted from a decline in agricultural production, a decline in incomes, and a surge in food prices. The findings indicate that the adverse effects of food output fluctuations were intensified by increasing income inequality and decreasing average income, while the market‐transmitted shocks were weakened by a contraction of disposable income. The results are corroborated with multiple alternative estimation techniques, including the introduction of spatial spill‐overs. The results show that even a pre‐industrial famine affecting an impoverished society was meaningfully defined by the distribution of incomes.

Assessment of the Immediate and Potential Long-Term Effects of COVID-19 Outbreak on Socioeconomics, Agriculture, Security of Food and Dietary Intake in Nigeria.

Nigeria agriculture, food security and dietary intake have not been exempted from the disruptions in countless sectors around the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The country first experienced the outbreak on February 27, 2020, and the experience since then has shown negative effects not only on the socioeconomic conditions but also on agriculture, food security and dietary intake. Long term in-depth analysis of the effects of this pandemic on food security and dietary intake using quantitative data is still very difficult due to paucity of data and the great level of the improbability of the trajectory of the spread of the Virus. This study is a rapid assessment of the short and long-term potential effects of the disease. It relied on a review of situation reports especially by the Nigeria Centre of Disease Control and other reports around the world on COVID-19, personal observations, and public opinion via mobile telephone survey of Lagos and Oyo States, Nigeria. Findings show that food demand and supply shocks caused by COVID-19 outbreak affect agriculture, food and dietary intake negatively through COVID-19 policies. It leads to a reduction in household income coupled with hike in food prices. Owing to the Nigeria’s crude farming practice, there was a scarcity of hired labour required for production process during 2020 farming season. This implies a high likelihood of low output and further surge in food prices in the future. Food access was also compromised with the accumulation of unsold fresh produce by the smallholder farmers and the low salary earners during movement restrictions and of loss income as a result of international border closure. Food and dietary intake is affected as people are shifting diets to more affordable and low quality foods, while food stability is not guaranteed due to market insecurity, prompting an extraordinary level of indecision. The study concludes that the shock of COVID-19 is not only a demand management problem but a multidimensional crisis requiring monetary, fiscal, and health policy responses with global collaboration and cooperation.

Food Security and Renewable Energy : Insights

<p>The world’s increasing population together with the amount of calories needed to meet dietary requirements has intensified food security concerns. As a result, the world’s energy demand has correspondingly risen mainly due to the preference for sophisticated food production-(usually energy–demanding), as well as mechanization of the food supply chain. Renewable energy has been pivotal in meeting the above demands by means of energy for food processing, storage and transport.</p> <p>The surge in food prices has gained widespread consideration. Many factors such as cost of farm inputs, climatic patterns and land tenure systems account for the food price increases observed in recent decades. There is also common knowledge that renewable energy particularly –bioenergy as being a cause of the above. The quest for a safer energy against conventional fossil fuels has made first generation biofuels the go-to option resulting in competition for resources that would have otherwise been used to produce food or consumed as food. Hence the food price increments.</p> <p>Bioenergy production may have a variable effect on food prices. Whereas the cultivation of first generation bioenergy crops can increase prices, it could also be the catalyst to induce investment in agriculture to increase crop yields that would ultimately stabilize prices. In the situation where resources for staple crops are shifted to bioenergy feedstock, staple food prices would soar due to shortages. This suggests many people are likely to remain in perpetual hunger unless crops yields are enough to meet the dimensions of food security –availability, access, utilization and stability.</p> <p>Food security and bioenergy have positive synergies as stated earlier. For example, while higher prices may boost local economies, bioenergy could strengthen food availability, access, utilization and stability to ensure food security. Additionally, bioenergy could mitigate energy deficiencies especially in the countryside. Proper management would be essential to ensure bioenergy production does not occur at the detriment of local livelihoods –notably food production and its consumption.</p>

Tracking the Transmission Channels of Fiscal Deficit and Food Inflation Linkages: A Structural VAR Approach

This empirical analysis aspired to unearth the transmission channels of fiscal deficit and food inflation linkages in the Indian perspective by reasonably exerting the data for 1991 to 2017. The precise results of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis proffered that there were three different mechanisms of transmission such as consumption, general inflation, and import channels that led to food inflation in response to the high fiscal deficit. The first channel revealed that government deficit spending had a positive impact on income which further led to food inflation through surging the household consumption expenditure. It was concluded that fiscal deficit passed through general inflation finally leading to a food price surge in the economy and seemed to work as cost-push inflation for the food and agricultural industry. The outcome also revealed that the impact of fiscal deficit passed to food inflation through external linkages such as import and export.

Role of Agriculture in ensuring Food Security

The 2007-2008 food crises and the renewed surge in food prices in 2010-2011 have exposed deep structural problems in the global food system and the need to increase food production. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as existing "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Despite Nepal has no worse food and nutrition security situation among SAARC countries, there are some districts where food is always in shortage. The explicit constitutional recognition of the right to food and other related provisions in articles 36 and 42 of the new constitution will be instrumental for implementing food security programs in the country. Food security for poor people is based on sustainable food production. Many proven technologies and improved practices have the promise to boost agricultural production and ensure food security in developing countries like Nepal. Food and Nutrition security program (FANUSEP) is one of the flagship programs of Agriculture Development Strategy 2015-2035 (ADS), which is in the first phase of its implementation. It aims at improving the food and nutrition security of the most disadvantaged groups of the population.

Analysis of the Impact of Ethanol Production on Agricultural Product Prices in Brazil

The last ten years have seen with intense price volatility in the commodities markets, especially within the energy sector. This fluctuation has had serious implications on markets all over the world. From an increased dependence on renewable energy sources, to potential climate change impacts on global markets, commodities markets continue to face unpredictable and explosive price instabilities. In 2015, Brazil experienced an unprecedented increase in the price of ethanol. It is believed that due to that increase, Brazil consequently witnessed a surge in food prices. The primary objective of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationship between ethanol production and agricultural commodity prices. Our analysis confirmed that the increase in ethanol production had an impact on the price of sugar, wheat, corn and barley. This conclusion was drawn after conducting a series of statistical tests, unit roots and price pairing cointegration estimates. The multitude of tests that were conducted demonstrates a clear link between food price fluctuations in Brazil and ethanol price spikes.

The Pass-Through of Global Food Price Inflation to Domestic Prices Inflation: Empirical Evidence from South Asia

This study investigates and assesses how the international food price surge affects domestic inflation process in South Asia. Global food price indices (GFPI) are collected from FAOSTAT website. Data for domestic prices (CPI and CFPI) are collected from CEIC website. Exchange rates for each country are collected from IMF website. The empirical statistical results are derived by using a battery of parametric and non-parametric econometric techniques using monthly data of price series for the study period, 2005M1 to 2017M12. The co-integration analysis results confirm that the global food prices and domestic prices are co-integrated. Granger–causality test reveals the unidirectional causal relationship running from global food prices to domestic prices over the study period for Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, In the case of India, Bangladesh and Nepal, samples do not show the evidence of causal relationship in the short run. However, in the long run, GFPI Granger cause local prices in all countries. Therefore, Governments from South Asia need to develop a safety net program for the poor and a longer term poverty reduction strategy. Policy attention needs to shift towards efforts to increase food production. The results of this study have shown various policy implications for monetary policy, food and agricultural policy and trade policy for South Asia.

The impact of food prices on the welfare of households in South Africa

Background and setting: The global food price surge of 2006 to 2008 has negatively impacted South African households. Rising food prices adversely affect food security in South Africa. The ever-increasing prices for food commodities and lack of access to finance make it very difficult to strengthen food security amongst households in South Africa. Aim: The aim of the study is to examine the impact of food prices on household welfare in South Africa. Additionally, the study attempts to analyse the short- and long-run relationship between food prices and household welfare in South Africa. This is done by determining how real household welfare responds and/or reacts whenever there is a shock in food prices and its fundamental determinants. Finally, the study attempts to distil recommendations toward a conceptual framework for the mitigation of the impact of high food prices on households in South Africa. Method: The Vector Error Correction Modelling (VECM) technique is utilised to estimate a regression model. Results: The results reveal that a 1% increase in food prices would reduce household welfare by 21.3%. The study, therefore, confirms a negative correlation between food prices and welfare. Conclusion: Short-run policy recommendations include: (1) subsidising staple food baskets for households in South Africa, (2) reducing prices of staple foods through the reduction of food tariffs and (3) reducing household expenditure on basic needs through subsidisation. These policy options could lessen the burden on households when there is a rise in the prices of staple food sources and therefore improve household welfare. Long-run policy recommendations include: (1) improving the unemployment rate in South Africa and (2) improving access to finance and credit for South African households. By addressing the rising unemployment rates and improving access to finance and credit in South Africa through job creation initiatives and improving micro-credit strategies, an environment can be created where households improve their disposable income.

Agricultural support and vulnerability of food security to trade in developing countries

Our hypothesis is that the ratio of national food import expenditures to the value of total exports may be used as a consistent indicator of food security vulnerability to trade at the national level (the Bonilla Index hereafter). In this article, we test the assumption that with the aim of stabilizing national food availability and accessibility, developing countries use policy instruments for stabilizing their Bonilla Index. Developing countries depend on farming while many price distortions remain. The nominal rate of assistance is defined as the percentage by which government policies have raised revenues to producers above what they would be without the government’s intervention (agricultural policy domestic support and border measures). After analysing the role of the nominal rate of assistance and of the exchange rate vulnerability of food security to trade, we present the Bonilla Index evolution paths of 39 developing countries from 2005 to 2010. Second, we measured the impact of their national policy responses to the 2008 price surge using the nominal rate of assistance on importable food products. Finally, we statistically tested the extent to which our qualitative hypotheses and relationships were actually confirmed by the data over the period 2005–2010. Our results suggest that most developing countries have used their possibility to play with the nominal rate of the assistance level to compensate for the effects of the 2008 food price surge and that exchange rate variations actually have little impact on food accessibility for consumers in a context of food-price volatility.

Monitoring of Food Security in the Russian Federation: Methodology and Assessment

1. Introduction 1.1 Introduce Problem Production of foodstuff necessary for survival of human race is fairly considered one of perpetual world's problems, which never looses its topicality. Marx called food manufacturing the very first life condition (Marx and Engels, 1962). Austrian scientists Menger (1992) stated our survival depends on satisfying food needs .... process of food manufacturing should be continuous since human cannot cease to consume and we should increase manufacturing what is conditioned by population (Roberts., 2011). For today Malthus' warning (1798) concerning population overgrowth negative impact on food consumption comes true. It begins to echo problems of water resources scarcity, climatic changes (Iizumi and Ramankutty, 2015), ecology growing influence on yielding capacity (Seea et al., 2015), aggravation of economic and social problems relating to increasing role of major monopolies and multinational corporations on food markets. Providing food security is one of most important world's problems nowadays (Pete 2013; Qureshi et al., 2015; Smyth et al., 2015). Not only life sustaining but maintaining economic systems' reproduction function and supporting national sovereignty depend on its successful solution. The increasing role of issue is primarily conditioned by growing shortage of foodstuff in peripheral economies and world food price surge. According to Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO), in 2014 total number of undernourished people was 805 mln people or 11% of world population, and world food price index in previous year increased by 51% in comparison with 2013. Moreover, anthropogenic pollution followed by growth of harmful chemical substances content in food products complicates problem of food quality. In addition, not having provided world's population with sufficient amount of food, world faces problem of food security assurance. Thus, global solution of food problem is currently based on two approaches: first is focused on providing needy countries with foodstuff along with implementation of countries' own programs regarding agricultural crisis overcoming (the possibility of more yielding transgenic varieties use is left open), second suggests wholefood production increase and population protection from substandard goods. 1.2 Importance of Problem Being basis of life support, food security is justly considered by many developed countries one of major national priorities with active state participation and national security maintenance as a core element. In this context formation of a new food security conception of Russian Federation with regard to such world tendencies as globalization, international and national competitiveness and integration development, increase in price dumping, etc. requires reframing a number of theoretical principles. Under present conditions shift from system of constant patching up of arising problems to theory of stable, efficient, and competitive development of Russian Federation's agroindustrial complex and its central core --agriculture--with stage-by-stage transition to food sovereignty regarding staple foods manufactured in country at first, and then--to providing food security is necessary. Generally, taking into account Russian Federation's natural recourses sufficiency and evolving global climatic, economic and social changes, futureoriented country's transforming into one of largest exporters of environmentally friendly agricultural products should be taken as a basis of food security. While such conception of food security is implemented, Russia will get not only a resource of federal budget income basis alternative to oil and gas but also a core tool to preserve national sovereignty. Within context of new concept of Russia's food security organization of continuous and all-round monitoring of food manufacture and import, food consumption per capita with due account for food accessibility and affordability becomes fundamental. …

Transmission of Global Food Prices to Domestic Prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka

Food prices have been increasing sharply since 2003. In the globalized world, the transmission of global foodprice increases to domestic market determines the decision of economic agents and policy makers of a domesticeconomy. The recent growth of global food prices affects the welfare of poor consumers and producers. In SriLanka, large segment of the population spends more than 50 percent of their income on food. Thus, this studyinvestigates and assesses how international food price surge affects domestic inflation process in Sri Lanka. Theempirical statistical results are derived by using a battery of parametric and non-parametric econometrictechniques using monthly data of price series for the period from 2003M1 to 2013M12. The co-integrationanalysis results confirm that global food prices, domestic prices are co-integrated. Therefore, Sri Lankangovernment needs to develop a safety net program for the poor and a longer term poverty reduction strategy.Policy attention needs to shift towards efforts to increase food production. The results of this study have variouspolicy implications for monetary policy, food and agricultural policy and trade policy for Sri Lanka.