Food Policy Research Institute Research Articles

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Relationship Between GDP and the Global Hunger Index Over the Last 20 Years

This study examines the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the Global Hunger Index (GHI) over the past two decades. By analyzing data from various countries across different income levels, the research explores how economic growth intersects with hunger dynamics. The study utilizes reputable sources, including reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the World Bank. The findings highlight that while GDP per capita is an important factor in reducing hunger, other elements such as income inequality, education, health expenditure, agricultural productivity, and governance significantly influence hunger outcomes. The research underscores the necessity for holistic approaches that integrate economic growth with social equity and effective policy interventions to eradicate hunger globally.

Impact of agricultural extension services on rice productivity and profitability in Bangladesh

Agricultural extension services play a pivotal role in promoting sustainable agriculture, particularly in developing countries where many farmers are resource-poor. Enhancing farmers’ profitability and productivity is essential to meet the increasing demand of a growing population. This study aims to examine the impact of agricultural extension services on the profitability and productivity of rice farmers in Bangladesh. The analysis uses unbalanced panel data from the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey for 2015 and 2018. The Mann–Whitney U test was used to assess whether the differences between the participant and non-participant groups were statistically significant. Additionally, a probit regression model is used to identify the determinants of participation in agricultural extension services. The findings reveal that participation is positively influenced by access to subsidies, distance to market, occupation and livelihood vulnerability. The impact of agricultural extension services on farm productivity and profitability is assessed using difference-in-difference and random effect generalized least squares models. The results show that agricultural extension services significantly contribute to both farm profitability and productivity. This suggests that governments should intensify and monitor the delivery of agricultural extension services, particularly focusing on the timely provision of support resource-poor farmers.

Clean energy transition in rural Bangladesh: Challenges in adoption and impact

ABSTRACT At the household level, the solar photovoltaic (PV) system is an off-grid clean energy source with significant poverty reduction potential, thereby contributing to the attainment of several sustainable development goals. Nevertheless, there has been limited adoption of renewable or clean energy technologies in Bangladesh. At present, renewable energy sources account for only 3% of the country’s electricity generation. This study thus investigates the drivers of solar PV adoption and the impact of this on household income and poverty in Bangladesh. We present an econometric analysis of data from the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, 2020. Our findings indicate that only 5.51% of the sample households adopted solar PV, with the likelihood of adoption 3.8% higher in households with a mobile phone, 1.7% higher in households with internet access, and 2.8% higher among homeowners. However, the government’s programs to expand the electricity grid made the delivery of solar PV by partner organizations less competitive. Our analysis reveals that the adoption of solar PV has a positive effect on household income of between 9.31% and 13.50%. The poverty gap is likely to decrease by around 20% to 26% due to adoption. These findings are pertinent to ongoing policy development efforts targeted at increasing the adoption of renewable energy to meet the sustainable development goals. Solar PV information could be potentially disseminated through mass media and modern communication technologies that require internet access. Furthermore, increasing the installation of solar PV systems in rented houses may promote the adoption of solar PV. It is imperative to implement policies that provide incentives for the installation and utilization of solar PV.

Demand for milk and milk products in the rural household of Bangladesh: A panel data analysis

Milk is considered an essential source of protein for people of all ages. However, Bangladeshi people, particularly those living in rural areas, tend to consume less milk and milk products than necessary. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the demand for milk and milk products among rural consumers and the factors affecting their consumption habits. The study utilizes balanced panel data from three waves of the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey: 2011–12, 2015, and 2018–19, collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute. Both the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and Fixed Effects Model were employed. The expenditure elasticity for liquid milk, powdered milk, and condensed milk was found to be 1.013, 1.856, and 1.060, respectively, indicating that these products are considered luxury goods in rural Bangladesh. Additionally, powdered milk is more price-sensitive than liquid or condensed milk in these areas. Milk and milk products exhibit a substitutable relationship based on the Slutsky and Cournot cross-price elasticities matrix. Consumption of liquid milk is significantly influenced, either positively or negatively, by several factors, including age, education, family size, ownership of dairy animals, income, expense of food, and year. Furthermore, while the consumption of powdered milk is increasing over time, factors such as family size and livestock ownership negatively impact its consumption. Similarly, the consumption of condensed milk is negatively affected by education and ownership of dairy animals. Based on our study results, we recommend increasing household income through on and off-farm job creation, promoting educational campaigns on the benefits of milk, and supporting livestock ownership to reduce reliance on processed milk products.

The effect of total factor productivity on the food security and livelihood vulnerability of farm households in Bangladesh

Food security and livelihood vulnerability are important issues for the economic sustainability of developing countries like Bangladesh. This study examines the influence of total factor productivity (TFP) on the livelihood vulnerability and food security of rice farming households in Bangladesh. Data from 1,841 rice farming households were extracted from the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (2015 and 2018) conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute. Various statistical methods, such as the stochastic frontier model, principal component analysis, path analysis using structural equation modeling, and multivariate regression, were employed to analyze the data. The study utilizes a multivariate modeling approach that combines the stochastic frontier model to determine TFP and sophisticated methodologies to estimate the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and women’s empowerment in agriculture index (WEAI). The LVI, household dietary diversity Score (HDDS), TFP, and WEAI scores were 0.454, 10.72, 0.703, and 0.717, respectively. The results indicate a significant relationship between TFP and both LVI and HDDS. Higher TFP is associated with lower LVI and higher HDDS among rice farming households, suggesting that improving TFP can enhance food security and reduce vulnerability. The multivariate regression analysis reveals that TFP, household wealth index, women’s empowerment in agriculture index, per capita food expenditure, household level welfare, and household size have a positive significant impact on HDDS, while TFP is negatively associated with LVI, per capita food expenditure and household size. The findings underscore the importance of increasing TFP to improve food security, reduce livelihood vulnerability, and achieve sustainable development goals in countries like Bangladesh. Higher TFP yields positive outcomes regarding household dietary diversity and livelihood vulnerability, highlighting the need for agricultural policies that prioritize TFP enhancement. Policymakers and professionals can use these findings as a roadmap to implement advanced agricultural policies to achieve food security and reduce livelihood vulnerability. Improving household dietary diversity and reducing livelihood vulnerability can be achieved by focusing on increasing TFP, enhancing household wealth, women’s empowerment, per capita food expenditure, household welfare, and household size. Therefore, increasing TFP should be considered in the design of policies aiming to achieve SDGs Goal 2.

Predicting malaria outbreaks using earth observation measurements and spatiotemporal deep learning modelling: a South Asian case study from 2000 to 2017

BackgroundMalaria remains one the leading communicable causes of death. Approximately half of the world's population is considered at risk of infection, predominantly in African and South Asian countries. Although malaria is preventable, heterogeneity in sociodemographic and environmental risk factors over time and across diverse geographical and climatological regions make outbreak prediction challenging. Data-driven approaches accounting for spatiotemporal variability could offer potential for location-specific early warning tools for malaria. MethodsIn this case study, we developed and internally validated a data fusion approach to predict malaria incidence in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh using geo-referenced environmental factors. For 2000–17, district-level malaria incidence rates for each country were obtained from the US Agency for International Development's Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Environmental factors included average annual temperature, rainfall, and normalised difference vegetation index, obtained from the Advancing Research on Nutrition and Agriculture (known as AReNA) project conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in 2020. Data on night-time light intensity was derived from two satellites of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Defense Meteorological Satellite Program—Operational Linescan System: Nighttime Lights Time Series Version 4, and VIIRS Nighttime Day/Night Band Composites version 1. A multi-dimensional spatiotemporal long short-term memory (M-LSTM) model was developed using data from 2000–16 and internally validated for the year 2017. The M-LSTM model consisted of four hidden layers, each with 100 LSTM units; a fully connected layer was used, followed by linear regression, to predict the malaria incidence rate for 2017 using spatiotemporal partitioning. Model performance was measured using accuracy and root mean squared error. Country-specific models were produced for Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Bivariate geospatial heatmaps were produced for a qualitative comparison of univariate environmental factors with malaria rates. FindingsMalaria incidence was predicted with 80·6% accuracy in districts across Pakistan, 76·7% in districts across India, and 99·1% in districts across Bangladesh. The root mean squared error was 7 × 10–4 for Pakistan, 4·86 × 10–6 for India, and 1·32 × 10–5 for Bangladesh. Bivariate maps showed an inverse relationship between night-time lights and malaria rates; whereas high malaria rates were found in areas with high temperature, rainfall, and vegetation. InterpretationMalaria outbreaks could be forecasted using remotely measured environmental factors. Modelling techniques that enable simultaneously forecasting ahead in time as well as across large geographical areas might potentially empower regional decision makers to manage outbreaks early. FundingNIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre Programme and The Higher Education Commission of Pakistan.

Study protocol to assess aflatoxin M1 health risks versus benefits of dairy consumption in Ethiopian children: an epidemiological trial and risk-benefit analysis

IntroductionIn Sidama, Ethiopia, animal-source foods can be difficult to access. Milk has important nutrients for child growth, but carries the risk of aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) contamination. AFM1 is a metabolite...

Household consumption expenditure behaviour towards outside ready-made food: Evidence from Bangladesh

Young and middle-aged people in Bangladesh are increasingly eating out. This paper examines consumer demand characteristics associated with consumption expenditure patterns toward eating out using the nationally representative Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey 2018-19 dataset, which is conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in all 64 districts of Bangladesh. Data from 5604 sample households and 20,717 individuals within those households were analysed for this study. The descriptive statistics highlight that gender, education, employment status, and occupation are significant individual-level characteristics related to having prepared outside food. People generally eat snacks and sample ready-made foods from local shops and the Haat/Bazar (market). Empirical evidence based on Cragg's double-hurdle model assesses that secondary or higher school education, family size, and annual food expenditure are important determinants of the likelihood of household participation in consumption and spending on eating out in the past week. In contrast, raising livestock noticeably reduces expenditures on eating outside meals. This study, therefore, recommends that educated households be aware of the adverse health effects of eating food prepared outside. In addition, livestock raising could complement the diet outside the home and decrease expenses on eating out.

Adoption of improved management practices of livestock: Case of small-scale farmers in rural Bangladesh

This study examines the drivers of improved livestock management practices (ILMP) adoption in rural Bangladesh using data from the International Food Policy Research Institute's (IFPRI) Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS). This study investigated four improved management practices: artificial insemination, concentrate feed, vaccination, and deworming. The binary logit and multivariate probit (MVP) models were used to analyse the data. According to the findings, approximately 65% of farmers practiced deworming, but only about 20% of farmers vaccinated their livestock. Logit regression analysis suggested that rural households with mobile phones and televisions were 5.2% and 3.8% more likely to adopt. Furthermore, compared to their peers, farmers who have maintained contact with livestock extension agents are 11% more likely to adopt. The MVP model indicated that likelihood of using concentrate feed increases with income, while artificial insemination is more prevalent among farmers who raise livestock for sale. Policy implication included the need for more extension agent-delivered awareness development programmes to educate livestock farmers on the benefits of ILMP. Scale-appropriate management practices can also play an important role. Farmers should be guaranteed of the availability of livestock feed and veterinary services at reasonable prices to promote adoption.

Agriculture for Economic Development in Africa Evidence from Ethiopia, by Naoto Emelie RohneTill, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2022. ISBN: 978‐3‐031‐07900‐9.

Rural SociologyEarly View Book Review Agriculture for Economic Development in Africa Evidence from Ethiopia, by Naoto Emelie Rohne Till, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2022. ISBN: 978-3-031-07900-9. Eliaza Mkuna, Corresponding Author Eliaza Mkuna [email protected] Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Mzumbe University, Morogoro, TanzaniaSearch for more papers by this author Eliaza Mkuna, Corresponding Author Eliaza Mkuna [email protected] Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Mzumbe University, Morogoro, TanzaniaSearch for more papers by this author First published: 30 May 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12500Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL References Adedeji, Atilade Adedayo, Max M. Häggblom, and Olubukola Oluranti Babalola. 2020. “Sustainable Agriculture in Africa: Plant Growth-Promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPR) to the Rescue.” Scientific African 9:e00492. Badiane, Ousmane, Xinshen Diao, and Thomas Jayne. 2021. “ Africa's Unfolding Agricultural Transformation.” Pp. 153– 92 in Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World, edited by K. Otsuka and S. Fan. Part Two: Regional Issues in Agricultural Development. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Opoku, Eric Evans Osei and Isabel Kit-Ming Yan. 2019. “Industrialization as Driver of Sustainable Economic Growth in Africa.” The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 28(1): 30– 56. Early ViewOnline Version of Record before inclusion in an issue ReferencesRelatedInformation

Economic Connectiveness and Pro-Poor Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Agriculture

In Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is essential for poverty reduction, and pro-poor growth is the renewed focus of today’s political debate. The present paper adds to the literature on the growth–inequality relationship. It provides an in-depth analysis of the potential role of agriculture in promoting pro-poor growth in rural and urban areas compared with that of other activities. This aspect still lacks rigorous empirical support. Using the Nexus project SAMs by the International Food Policy Research Institute, this study identifies the level of ‘keyness’ of 36 activities (12 are agricultural) in nine Eastern, Western, and Central African countries using the inter-industry linkages analysis. Afterwards, it investigates the income distribution multipliers effects of activities growth across households classified in quantiles in rural and urban areas. Therefore, the paper adds to the literature, mainly focused on rural poverty and information on the growth effect on urban poverty, which is important in the context of rapid urbanization and the growing number of poor people in African cities. Apart from country-specific factors, the results confirm the strong integration of agriculture with the economy. The growth of key agricultural activities presents the most pronounced multiplicative effect on the income of rural households in the lowest quantiles. Poor urban households also benefit from their growth, but not to the same extent as rural households with an increase in the rural–urban income gap.

Joachim von Braun and Rajul Pandya-Lorch (eds.). Food Policy for the Poor: Expanding the Research Frontiers: Highlights from 30 Years of IFPRI Research. Washington, D. C.: IFPRI, 2005. 253 Pages. Price not given.

The research of the past 30 years at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is highlighted in this volume. The topic is food and nutrition security. Of related concern are the development strategies that impact on technologies for agricultural production, resource management, conflicts and natural disasters, subsidies and safety nets, gender roles, and health. The book consists of nine chapters. The first chapter discusses a changing IFPRI in a changing world. The current and future world food situation is analysed and ways are suggested to increase agricultural production and to explore policies for improving production, trade, and distribution of food so that an increase in the quantity and quality of food would be available for all people. IFPRI has heightened its efforts to raise the awareness about emerging food security issues. In particular, its “2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment” initiative is aimed at promoting policy actions that will lead to food and nutrition security.

Risk-sharing in Rural Pakistan

Risk-sharing is a fundamental form of economic behaviour. It can occur through formal insurance markets, informal family arrangements, community support, legal institutions (such as bankruptcy), or government tax-transfer programmes. Whatever the mechanism used to share risk, the extent of risk mitigation can greatly influence the welfare of all members of society. Understanding the degree of risk-pooling in society is important for policy-makers, since insufficient risk pooling may provide a basis for government intervention. Alternatively, if risks are being pooled adequately without the help of the government, government risk-sharing may be redundant. This study explores the implications of the risk-sharing model, namely, that households which pool risks, either through formal markets or informal personal arrangements, experience correlated changes in their consumption through time. It conducts tests of within-village, across-village, within-district, and across-district risksharing using a new Pakistani panel data set—the Pakistan Food Security Management Survey—collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D. C. Unlike studies for other Less Developed Countries (LDCs), these tests find very little or almost no evidence of risk-sharing among unrelated individuals within- and across-villages in the rural sector of Pakistan.

Explanation of Off-farm Work Participation in Rural Pakistan

The role of off-farrn employment in augmenting household fann income in the developing countries is of special significance, given the land and water resource constraints and the alanning. rate of population growth. This study focuses on the rural household in Pakistan in an effort to understand the economic and social factors that affect off-farm work participation of male household members in the rural areas. The data are derived from the cross-section survey carried out by the International Food Policy Research Institute for the year 1986-87 as a panel study of rural households. The parameters of the model are estimated using the standard maximum likelihood Tobit approach. Most of the results are consistent with the findings in other developing countries. The results confirm that the level of human capital plays an important role in making decisions providing for labour in off-fann work activities. The study also highlights the fact that fann-to-market roads and village electrification are some of the development strategies vital to encourage participation in off-farm work.

Addressing the human costs and consequences of the Pakistan flood disaster

Addressing the human costs and consequences of the Pakistan flood disaster

Climate Change Impact on Agriculture and Water Resources - A Review

Climate change affects agricultural water requirement, water availability, water quantity and quality. Agriculture is most affected by climate change among other sectors because crop and livestock systems depend critically on climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature. The effect of climate change has been assessed in several special reports from international agencies the United Nations World Water Development (WWD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) etc. These studies all share a common conclusion that climate change affects the availability, quality and quantity of water for basic human needs, thus threatening global food security. Following these global assessments and numerous local and regional studies, this study provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources, backed up by climatic data from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Abuja. The results show that the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is increasing. Consequently, the increasing concentration of GHGs resulted in changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. In Nigeria, there is a decrease in rainfall (about 90 mm), while temperature increased (about 0.8OC) since 1960. This has led to increased evaporation and evapotranspiration and water stress resulting in the drying up of water bodies such as rivers and lakes. While climate change makes some countries experience an increase in water resources, the majority face serious water stress. The changes in climatic events such as temperature and rainfall significantly affect the yield of crops, because of their sensitivity to weather parameters, thereby causing huge economic impacts on countries that are highly dependent on Agriculture. More research and government policies should focus on a planned adaptation in agricultural water management to facilitate more consistent and more effective responses to climate change, with consideration of the linkage with non-agricultural water uses.

Opportunities for Orphan Crops: Expected Economic Benefits From Biotechnology.

An enabling, evidence-based decision-making framework is critical to support agricultural biotechnology innovation, and to ensure farmers’ access to genetically modified (GM) crops, including orphan crop varieties. A key element, and often a challenge in the decision-making process, involves the balancing of identified potential risks with expected economic benefits from GM crops. The latter is particularly challenging in the case of orphan crops, for which solid economic data is scarce. To address this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with local economists analyzed the expected economic benefits to farmers and consumers from the adoption of GM crops in 5 sub-Saharan African countries. This paper focuses on case studies involving insect-resistant cowpea in Nigeria and Ghana; disease-resistant cassava in Uganda and Tanzania; and disease-resistant banana in Uganda. Estimations from these case studies show substantial economic benefits to farmers and consumers from the timely adoption and planting in farmers’ fields of GM orphan crops. Our analysis also shows how the benefits would significantly be reduced by regulatory or other delays that affect the timely release of these crops. These findings underscore the importance of having an enabling policy environment and regulatory system—covering, among other elements, biosafety and food/feed safety assessment, and varietal release registration—that is efficient, predictable, and transparent to ensure that the projected economic benefits are delivered and realized in a timely manner.

From the President and IFST News

From the President and <scp>IFST</scp> News

Leveraging farm production diversity for dietary diversity: evidence from national level panel data

Dietary diversity is the key to improved health and nutrition. Farm production diversity has the potential of enhancing dietary diversity but this interrelationship varies and is ambiguous in many societies. To examine the effect of farm production diversity on household dietary diversity using nationally representative panel data of Bangladesh we have used Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) data collected by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in 2011/12, 2015 and 2018/19. Total sample size is 11,720. For assessing dietary diversity we have used different indicators namely household dietary diversity score (HDDS) and food variety score (FVS). We have also used multiple methods for measuring farm production diversity including production diversity score, crop diversity score and Simpson diversification index. Poisson regression model has been used. Results revealed a strong positive association among farm production diversity, income and dietary diversity though the extent of the association is small. The variables such as market orientation, access to market, age and education are also found to influence on household dietary diversity. Our results propose that for increasing dietary diversity efforts should be taken to increase farm production diversity combined with diverse income and market access.

Analysis of technical efficiency of dry season rice production in saline and non-saline areas of Bangladesh

Maintaining productivity and technical efficiency of salinity affected rice farming is essential for food security in Bangladesh, given trends of increasing rates of salinity incursion. Using Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) data, collected by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and a translog stochastic production estimation approach, we estimated the differences in technical efficiency between saline and non-saline Boro rice producers. The findings indicate that, although mean efficiency of Boro rice producers in non-saline areas (83%) is higher than that of saline areas (73%), the pooled model suggests that saline farmers are more technically efficient compared with non-saline farmers. Despite this, the per hectare output (productivity) of Boro rice is significantly lower in saline areas (5479.3 kg) compared with non-saline areas (5880.5 kg). Moreover, saline area farmers use more irrigation and family labour to maintain Boro rice output, but more irrigation decreases marginal productivity because of salinity effects. Results also show that there are socio-economic differences between farmers in saline and non-saline areas. The implications of this study are that increased levels of salinity will reduce rice production, as variations in farming systems and technical efficiency are not sufficient to compensate for lost productivity.