Food Insecure Regions Research Articles

Cassava about‐FACE: Greater than expected yield stimulation of cassava (Manihot esculenta) by future CO2 levels

AbstractGlobally, cassava is the second most important root crop after potatoes and the fifth most important crop overall in terms of human caloric intake. In addition to its growing global importance for feed, fuel, and starch, cassava has long been vital to food security in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Climate change is expected to have its most severe impact on crops in food insecure regions, yet little is known about how cassava productivity will respond to climate change. The most important driver of climate change is globally increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]). However, the potential for cassava to enhance food security in an elevated [CO2] world is uncertain as greenhouse and open top chamber (OTC) study reports are ambiguous. Studies have yielded misleading results in the past regarding the effect of elevated [CO2] on crop productivity, particularly in cases where pots restricted sink growth. To resolve these conflicting results, we compare the response of cassava to growth at ambient (ca. 385 ppm) and elevated [CO2] (585 ppm) under field conditions and fully open air [CO2] elevation. After three and half months of growth at elevated [CO2], above ground biomass was 30% greater and cassava root tuber dry mass increased over 100% (fresh weight increased 89%). High photosynthetic rates and photosynthetic stimulation by elevated [CO2], larger canopies, and a large sink capacity all contributed to cassava's growth and yield stimulation. Cassava exhibited photosynthetic acclimation via decreased Rubisco capacity early in the season prior to root tuber initiation when sink capacity was smaller. Importantly, and in contrast to a greenhouse study, we found no evidence of increased leaf N or total cyanide concentration in elevated [CO2]. All of our results are consistent with theoretical expectations; however, the magnitude of the yield increase reported here surpasses all other C3 crops and thus exceeds expectations.

Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization are often used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in regions that are food insecure areas, are isolated from international export market price trends. Here we present country and regional staple food price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We examine the market integration of regional and country level staple food price indices for 35 countries in West, East and Southern Africa and in Central Asia and Central America. We found that cereal price indices constructed using local market prices of within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier warning of food security crises.

Examining Cassava’s Potential to Enhance Food Security Under Climate Change

Approximately 925 million people are undernourished and almost 90% of these people live in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Asia and the Pacific. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, continues to have the highest proportion of chronically hungry individuals, where 1 in 3 (ca. 240 million) are undernourished in terms of both food quantity and nutrition. The threat of substantial changes in climate raises concerns about future capacity to sustain even current levels of food availability because climate change will impact food security most severely in regions where undernourishment is already problematic. Estimates of future climate change impacts on crops vary widely, particularly in Africa, due in part to a lack of agricultural and meteorological data. To more accurately predict future climate change impacts on food security we must first precisely assess the impact of climate change drivers on crops of food insecure regions. Recent advances in biofortification, a substantial yield gap, and an inherent potential to respond positively to globally increasing CO2 levels are synergistic and encouraging for cassava in an otherwise bleak global view of the future of food security in the developing world.

Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania

Improved understanding of the influence of climate on agricultural production is needed to cope with expected changes in temperature and precipitation, and an increasing number of undernourished people in food insecure regions. Many studies have shown the importance of seasonal climatic means in explaining crop yields. However, climate variability is expected to increase in some regions and have significant consequences on food production beyond the impacts of changes in climatic means. Here, we examined the relationship between seasonal climate and crop yields in Tanzania, focusing on maize, sorghum and rice. The impacts of both seasonal means and variability on yields were measured at the subnational scale using various statistical methods and climate data. The results indicate that both intra- and interseasonal changes in temperature and precipitation influence cereal yields in Tanzania. Seasonal temperature increases have the most important impact on yields. This study shows that in Tanzania, by 2050, projected seasonal temperature increases by 2 °C reduce average maize, sorghum, and rice yields by 13%, 8.8%, and 7.6% respectively. Potential changes in seasonal total precipitation as well as intra-seasonal temperature and precipitation variability may also impact crop yields by 2050, albeit to a lesser extent. A 20% increase in intra-seasonal precipitation variability reduces agricultural yields by 4.2%, 7.2%, and 7.6% respectively for maize, sorghum, and rice. Using our preferred model, we show that we underestimate the climatic impacts by 2050 on crop yields in Tanzania by 3.6%, 8.9%, and 28.6% for maize, sorghum and rice respectively if we focus only on climatic means and ignore climate variability. This study highlights that, in addition to shifts in growing season means, changes in intra-seasonal variability of weather may be important for future yields in Tanzania. Additionally, we argue for a need to invest in improving the climate records in these regions to enhance our understanding of these relationships.

Strategies of Invisibilization: How Ethiopia's Resettlement Programme Hides the Poorest of the Poor

This paper examines the process by which the poorest of the poor in Ethiopia's food insecure regions are made invisible through their very participation in a programme whose explicit aim is to help deliver them from vulnerability. Those targeted for support progressively lose their status and agency as ‘people of concern’ to governmental welfare bodies as well as international humanitarian organizations as they are resettled in a scheme that renders many people more needy than they were before they left their areas of origin. Inadequate planning and resourcing of resettlement on a massive scale and rushed timeframe, blocking of NGO and other independent monitors’ access, and careful control at the federal level over information relating to conditions in settlement areas makes it possible for this space of invisibility to be created, into which an estimated one million people have already been moved since 2003. Invisibilization occurs through coinciding processes of forced recruitment and displacement as well as false and misleading representations of the resettlement programme, but also through a limited degree of voluntary engagement that enables government and international agencies to brand the operation voluntary—hence less a matter of concern—and thus to look away from a population that is far from self-sufficient. Based on fieldwork conducted in 2003 and 2004 in sending and receiving sites, I argue that invisibility is a function of governmentality in Ethiopia that has enabled inaction on the part of a wide range of stakeholders.

Can food-for-work encourage agricultural production?

Food-for-work (FFW) is the most widely used type of public works program in Ethiopia through which a high share of the food aid is distributed. This paper assesses the impacts of FFW in Tigray, a chronically food insecure region in Ethiopia, in terms of relieving liquidity constraints and thereby improving input use in agriculture. A Heckman selection model on the adoption and intensity of fertilizer use demonstrated that FFW positively influenced the decision to adopt fertilizer and there was no evidence of disincentive effect.

Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

Assessment of Socio-economic Status in the Context of Food Insecurity: Implications for Field Research

Measures of socio-economic status (SES) were compared with a measure of physical well-being, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), in the food insecure regions of Ethiopia. Income, housing conditions and education had the greatest correlation to MUAC, and significant differences in these measures were observed between malnourished and adequately nourished individuals. Findings indicate that in rural Ethiopia, income, education and housing quality may be better indicators of SES than wealth and measures encompassing home and landownership.

Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa

Early warning systems (EWS) tend to focus on the identification of slow onset disasters such famine and epidemic disease. Since hazardous environmental conditions often precede disastrous outcomes by many months, effective monitoring via satellite and in situ observations can successfully guide mitigation activities. Accurate short term forecasts of NDVI could increase lead times, making early warning earlier. This paper presents a simple empirical model for making 1 to 4 month NDVI projections. These statistical projections are based on parameterized satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) and relative humidity demand (RHD). A quasi-global, 1 month ahead, 1° study demonstrates reasonable accuracies in many semi-arid regions. In Africa, a 0.1° cross-validated skill assessment quantifies the technique's applicability at 1 to 4 month forecast intervals. These results suggest that useful projections can be made over many semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa, with plausible extensions to drought prone areas of Asia, Australia and South America.

Impact of climatic and other environmental changes on food production and population health in the coming decades.

World population will reach an estimated nine billion by 2050. Given this factor and continued economic development in today's low-income countries, the total global demand for food will increase approximately threefold over the coming half-century. Meanwhile, against this background, newly-occurring global environmental changes such as climate change are anticipated to affect food production. Other incipient large-scale environmental changes likely to affect food production include stratospheric O3 depletion, the accelerating loss of biodiversity (with knock-on effects on crop and livestock pest species) and the perturbation of several of the great elemental cycles of N and S. The ways in which these various environmental influences affect the production of food (crops and livestock on land, and wild and cultivated fisheries) are complex and interactive. Uncertainties therefore persist about how global climate change is likely to affect world and regional food production. On balance, recent modelling-based estimates indicate that, in the medium to longer term, if not over the next several decades, climate change is likely to affect crop yields adversely, especially in food-insecure regions. The prospect of increased climatic variability further increases the risks to future food production. Given these possible though uncertain adverse impacts of climatic and other environmental changes on world food production, there is a need to apply the Precautionary Principle. There are finite, and increasingly evident, limits to agro-ecosystems and to wild fisheries. Our capacity to maintain food supplies for an increasingly large and increasingly expectant world population will depend on maximising the efficiency and sustainability of production methods, incorporating socially-beneficial genetic biotechnologies, and taking pre-emptive action to minimise detrimental ecologically-damaging global environmental changes.