Food Demand In China Research Articles

Managing fragmented croplands for environmental and economic benefits in China.

Cropland fragmentation contributes to low productivity and high abandonment risk. Using spatial statistics on a detailed land use map, we show that 10% of Chinese croplands have no potential to be consolidated for large-scale farming (>10 ha) owing to spatial constraints. These fragmented croplands contribute only 8% of total crop production while using 15% of nitrogen fertilizers, leading to 12% of fertilizer loss in China. Optimizing the cropping structure of fragmented croplands to meet animal food demand in China can increase animal food supply by 19%, equivalent to increasing cropland proportionally. This crop-switching approach would lead to a 10% and 101% reduction in nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions, respectively, resulting in a net benefit of US$ 7 billion yr-1. If these fragmented croplands were relocated to generate large-scale farming units, livestock, vegetable and fruit production would be increased by 8%, 3% and 14%, respectively, and reactive nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 16% and 5%, respectively, resulting in a net benefit of US$ 44 billion yr-1. Both solutions could be used to achieve synergies between food security, economic benefits and environmental protection through increased agricultural productivity, without expanding the overall cropland area.

An In-Depth Assessment of the Drivers Changing China’s Crop Production Using an LMDI Decomposition Approach

Over the last decades, growing crop production across China has had far-reaching consequences for both the environment and human welfare. One of the emerging questions is “how to meet the growing food demand in China?” In essence, the consensus is that the best way forward would be to increase crop yield rather than further extend the current cropland area. However, assessing progress in crop production is challenging as it is driven by multiple factors. To date, there are no studies to determine how multiple factors affect the crop production increase, considering both intensive farming (using yield and multiple cropping index) and large-scale farming (using mean parcel size and number of parcels). Using the Logarithmic-Mean-Divisia-Index (LMDI) decomposition method combined with statistical data and land cover data (GlobeLand30), we assess the contribution of intensive farming and large-scale farming changes to crop production dynamics at the national and county scale. Despite a negative contribution from MPS (mean parcel size, ), national crop production increased due to positive contributions from yield (), MCI (multiple cropping index, ), as well as NP (number of parcels, ). This allowed China to meet the growing national crop demand. We further find that large differences across regions persist over time. For most counties, the increase in crop production is a consequence of improved yields. However, in the North China Plain, NP is another important factor leading to crop production improvement. On the other hand, regions witnessing a decrease in crop production (e.g., the southeast coastal area of China) were characterized by a remarkable decrease in yield and MCI. Our detailed analyses of crop production provide accurate estimates and therefore can guide policymakers in addressing food security issues. Specifically, besides stabilizing yield and maintaining the total NP, it would be advantageous for crop production to increase the mean parcel size and MCI through land consolidation and financial assistance for land transfer and advanced agricultural infrastructure.

Towards responsible production, consumption and food security in China: A review of the role of novel alternatives to meat protein

Rapid economic growth and urbanization are driving a growing and changing demand for food in China. However, food production has contributed significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) and human-induced nitrogen emissions. Specifically, beef and pork are two major contributors to China's direct GHG footprint from livestock. The shift from conventional meat to meat protein alternatives is reportedly one of the promising strategies to reduce resource use and emissions. The paper reviews the literature on whether novel meat alternatives can contribute to the attainment of sustainable development goal 2 (SDG 2), whether meat alternatives have a lower ecological footprint, and whether its supply is sustainable – a step toward achieving SDG 12. We observed that most studies portrayed the environmental footprint of meat alternatives in favourable terms, with few dissenting opinions. In addition, meat alternatives have been shown to expand the supply of protein, possess attributes that are important for food stability and can increase the availability of protein-rich foods to meet the nutritional needs of people. However, there are safety concerns and negative perceptions among the public. The insights from this study will be useful in assessing the prospects and informing decisions in moving towards responsible production, consumption and food security in China.

The Generation Process, Impurity Removal and High-Value Utilization of Phosphogypsum Material

As phosphogypsum constitutes a large amount of solid waste material, its purification treatment and comprehensive utilization have close connection with economic development and ecological environmental protection. For the moment, the storage quantity of phosphogypsum is still rising as a result of the increasing phosphate fertilizer production to meet the food demand in China. This paper summarizes the generation process, impurity removal treatment (physical method, chemical method, heat method), high-value utilization (nanometer calcium sulfate whisker, nanometer calcium carbonate) of phosphogypsum material and some existing problems. It puts forward some views on the challenges in this field and the direction of future development. It is hoped that the investigation and summary in this paper could supply some significant information for the impurity removal and high-value utilization of phosphogypsum material as a contribution to sustainability.

Sustainable biochar effects on the remediation of contaminated soil: A 2-crop season site practice near a lead-zinc smelter in Feng County, China

It is of great significance to explore the remediation pattern in actual heavy metal (HM) contaminated sites. The field trial was carried out to research the remediation effect of biochar near a lead-zinc smelter in Feng County, China, under the rotation condition of different crops. This kind of cultivation mode is very representative in northern of China. And the pattern of production and restoration is suitable for scarce land resources and large food demand in China. The changes of soil physiochemical properties with the biochar addition, crop growth and the accumulated HMs by crops were focused on. The results showed the biochar application was excellent in improving soil nutrient elements and crop growth. The contents of TK were more obvious than those of TN and TP, with an increase of 2.6%–28.2% compared with the controls (without the addition of biochar). The yield of first season crops, i.e., soybean and corn, increased by 30%–42% and 34%–61%, respectively, and the second season crops, i.e., rape and wheat, with the increment of 25%–41% and 9%–29%, respectively. The availability forms of Cd and Pb decreased by 1.07–10.0% and 2.92–8.35%, respectively. While the improvement on the status of the HMs accumulated by crops was disappointing. The contents of HMs accumulated by crops increased to varying degrees (e.g., Pb and Zn in root, Cu and Pb in grain, and Cd in stems and leaves). Moreover, the concentrations of HMs in seeds of crops were higher than the limited levels given by the Chinese directive. Considering the results of the study and food safety, it is suggested to change the nature of the land around the smelter into woodland or construction land to prohibit the cultivation of food crops in this area.

Restriction of soil bacteria promoting high yield of super hybrid rice in the Huaihe Valley in central China by conventional ploughing intensity

Fields used to grow ‘Super rice’ rice bred to meet the rising food demand in China are typically ploughed before seedling transplantation. However, conventional tillage, i.e. shallow ploughing (SP) to < 15 cm depth, limits further improvements in yield and fertiliser use efficiency in paddy soils of central China. Microorganisms drive soil nutrient transformation and can be manipulated by cultivation practices. However, little is known about the extent and biological mechanisms of the soil microbes responsible for the rice yield limitation. Our results showed that tillage was a primary factor affecting paddy soil microbial communities. Shallow ploughing affected the diversity and composition of soil bacteria communities, while deep ploughing resulted in closer, more competitive soil bacterial networks with 1.64-folder higher negative connection among bacterial taxa. Shallow ploughing resulted in 10.5 % lower relative abundance of Nitrospirae and higher abundances of denitrification pathway genes (nirS, nirK, and nosZ) of soil microbes, as well as greater nitrogen loss through N2O, leading to a lower rice yield. Our results indicated that the conventional tillage intensity has negative effects on the composition and network of soil bacteria, particularly affecting nitrification and limiting the achievement of high yield in rice paddies. This finding provides a theoretical basis underlying a microbiological mechanism that will be useful in proposing a novel tillage practice for high-yield rice cultivation in the Huaihe Valley in central China.

Mapping spatial supply chain paths for embodied water flows driven by food demand in China

Identifying critical spatial supply chain paths for embodied water flows driven by food demand can guide the development of more spatially explicit food-related policies for water savings. Previous studies have quantified water uses caused by food demand, but overlook intermediate transfer paths within and among regions. That is, spatial supply chain paths describing step-by-step transfer stages between water uses and final food demand have not been well characterized. Based on the multi-regional input-output model and structural path analysis, this study exhaustively identifies critical spatial supply chain paths for provincial water withdrawals driven by final food demand in China. Results show that the final demand of food products from critical sectors (e.g., agricultural products processing, rice, and swine) and regions (e.g., Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Guangdong) drives large amounts of water withdrawals. Critical supply chain paths indicate that agricultural products processing, food manufacturing, and catering should pay special attention to increasing the use efficiency of rice, poultry, cotton, water, and gas products, which can effectively reduce national water withdrawals. The interregional paths further provide evidence for interregional cooperation to save food-related water resources, such as the transfer of capital and technologies from agricultural products processing in Shandong to cotton production in Xinjiang and rice production in Heilongjiang. These critical supply chain paths provide spatially explicit and targeted hotspots for demand-side policies. They can also serve for the evaluation of measures in each stage of the supply chain paths.

Agricultural and rural development in China during the past four decades: an introduction

The past four decades have witnessed unprecedented economic growth and rapidly rising food demand in China. This paper provides an introduction to readers with useful information summarising the development of China’s agricultural sector and the transformation of its rural economy over the 40 years of economic reform. It is, however, impossible to cover all aspects of this recent and rich history in a single journal special issue. Nevertheless, we are of the view that these papers address the most fundamentally important and insightful topics including: land reform and rural development; technology progress and productivity growth; changing food consumption patterns; rural education and human capital accumulation; and poverty alleviation.

Can China’s food production capability meet her peak food demand in the future?

With the increase of food demand in China and the growth of world population, whether China can meet her peak food demand in the future or not has become an issue worth study. By consolidating relevant factors of food demand in China, the peak food demand is predicted to occur in 2036, and the peak food demand amount is predicted at 758.17 million tons by factor and synthetical analysis. Through factor consolidation and scenario test, the following policy implications have been unearthed: China’s food production capability is crucial to maintain her future food security; improving the gain yield is the key method; monitoring China’s population change and formulating appropriate population policies are important; reducing food waste, curbing unreasonable consumption and promoting healthy and green diet are needed; construction of high standard farmland will be significant in maintaining the food security; and excessive stored food should be de-stocked in a timely manner.

The environmental and socioeconomic trade-offs of importing crops to meet domestic food demand in China

China increasingly relies on agricultural imports, driven by its rising population and income, as well as dietary shifts. International trade offers an opportunity to relieve pressures on resource depletion and pollution, such as nitrogen (N) pollution, while it poses multiple socioeconomic challenges, such as food availability. To quantify such trade-offs considering the roles of different crop types, we developed a unique crop-specific N budget database and assessed the impacts of the crop trade on multiple sustainability concerns including N pollution caused by crop production, crop land area, independence of food supply, and trade expenditures. We quantified the ‘virtual’ N inputs and harvested areas, which are the amount of N inputs and land resources used in exporting countries for China’s crop import. In addition, we proposed the concepts of ‘alternative’ N inputs and harvested area to quantify the resources needed if imported crops were produced in China. By comparing results from ‘alternative’ and ‘virtual’ concepts, we assessed the role of trade in Chinese crops over the past 30 years (i.e. 1986–2015) in alleviating N pollution and saving cropland in China and the world. Crop imports accounted for 31% of Chinese crop N consumption in 2015, and these crop imports eased the need for an additional cropland area of 62 million ha. It also avoided an N surplus by 56 and 36 Tg (Tg = 109 kg) for China and the world respectively but led to $621 billion crop trade expenditures over the 30 year period. The N pollution damage avoided by crop imports in economic terms was priced at $22 ± 16 billion in 2015, which is lower than the crop trade expenditures but may be surpassed in the future with the development of the Chinese economy. Optimizing a crop trade portfolio can shift domestic production from N-intensive crop production (e.g. maize, fruits, and vegetables) to N-efficient crop production (e.g. soybeans), and consequently mitigate an N surplus by up to 12%. Improving N use efficiency for individual crops can further increase the mitigation potential of N surplus to 30%–50%, but requires technology advancement and policy incentives.

Effects of income distribution in an inverse demand system: evidence from Chinese household survey data

ABSTRACTThis study provides an empirical analysis of the impact of changes in income distribution on food demand in China using data from China Health and Nutrition Survey. A new parametric form of an inverse demand system is introduced and estimated taking into account reported zero consumption. This new form is a natural extension of recent works that accommodate the incorporation of income distribution into the system and imposition of global regularity conditions in estimation. Our results generally indicate that the distribution of households across income groups is important in determining food demand in China and that a movement towards a more equal income distribution in China will stimulate the demand for vegetable, fruit, fish and eggs.

Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China

AbstractA complete demand system is estimated separately for urban and rural residents using a two‐stage almost ideal demand system–quadratic almost ideal demand system model and pooled provincial and time‐series data from 2000 to 2012. The estimated demand elasticities with respect to income and demographic variables are then used to predict the changes in the structure of food demand in China for the year 2030. Results of this study suggest that, as per capita incomes grow further while both urbanization and population aging continue their upward trends, the shares of expenditures on foods away from home are expected to rise while the shares of spending on foods at home would decline, and that at‐home food budget shares of grains are expected to continue decreasing whereas at‐home food budget shares of foods with animal origins and fruits would be on the rise. Thus, food security in China has been transformed into feed grain security.

Effects of urbanization on food demand in China

Urbanization in China has been on a steady rise recently, which has contributed to the changing consumer food preferences and consumption patterns. This carries significant implications for food security in China and the global food trade, given the role China plays on global food markets. This study investigates the effects of urbanization on food demand in China by adopting an empirical framework that incorporates urbanization into a theory plausible demand system. It also considers the effects of urbanization-induced loss of agricultural land and increased pollution on food production resource quality and food supply. Modeling the demand and supply components simultaneously allows us to undertake equilibrium analysis to determine prices. Based on the urbanization elasticities derived and estimated in this study, our findings indicate that urbanization has increased demand for meats, fruit, and eggs, while reducing demand for grains, vegetables, and fats and oils.

Agricultural production and food consumption in China: A long-term projection

This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China's demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is to increase by 33% by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the “quality” gap in future Chinese food demand.

Engel curve, farmer welfare and food consumption in 40 years of rural China

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to review the theoretical background, methodological extensions, and empirical applications of the Engel curve, which is applied to the research of the change in farmers’ welfare and food demand in China after the economic reform in 1978, compared with the statistics of income and food consumption.Design/methodology/approachThis paper mainly uses the traditional method of Engel curve, which is compared with income growth and food consumption, to study farmers’ welfare improvement in rural China.FindingsThe Engel coefficients identify three different stages for farmers’ welfare change after 1978. The first stage is the period between 1978 and 1988, in which farmers’ welfare has been continuously enhanced due to the institutional bonus of the 1978 economic reform and increased government purchase price of agricultural products. The second stage is the period between 1989 and 1995, in which farmers’ welfare has been slightly deteriorated mainly due to the end of institutional reform bonus, suppressed food prices, relative high inflation, and instable political situation. The third stage is the period after 1995, in which farmers’ welfare returns to a growing path, as the dual price system was abolished, the transition from a planned economy to a market economy had been completed, and the government carried out protective policies for agriculture and started to heavily subsidize agriculture. The Engel coefficient still remained at a very high level at 0.59 in 1995, but it continuously decreased to 0.33 in 2015. The welfare enhancement for farmers mainly results from deepened market-oriented reform, protective policies for agriculture, and prevalent off-farm employment. The Engel coefficient is also linked to food demand elasticities. Along with the decreasing Engel coefficient in the past 40 years, income elasticities also continuously decrease from 0.55 in 1978 to 0.08 in 2015. Food demand is very inelastic now, and any further increase in income will not substantially increase food demand any more.Research limitations/implicationsInequality has not been analyzed.Originality/valueThis paper reviews the methodological advantages of the Engel curves, and uses it to identify different stages of welfare change and estimate income elasticities of food demand for farmers in China after the 1978 economic reform.

Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand in China

Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand in China

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

AbstractPrice endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.

Embodied agricultural water use in China from 1997 to 2010

Water is an important element in agricultural production. The recent population growth, rapid urbanization, and fast industrialization present increasing challenges for China's agricultural water use. Embodied water has been promoted as a substantial indicator for the assessment of water consumption induced by human activities. However, few studies have investigated the dynamic change in embodied agricultural water use by time-series data. The findings of such studies may facilitate the development of comprehensive sustainable water-usage strategies. Thus, this study quantifies the embodied agricultural water trade, as well as production- and consumption-based agricultural water footprints in China by using an input–output model during 1997–2010. According to the results, China's average embodied agricultural water intensity shows a declining trend from 43.33 m3/thousand Yuan in 1997 to 32.66 m3/thousand Yuan in 2010. The average embodied agricultural water intensity of the primary industry is larger than those of the secondary and tertiary industries. China has always been a net exporter of agricultural water. At the industrial level, the primary industry is a net importer because of the increasing food demand in China, the secondary industry has consistently been a net exporter, and the tertiary industry has maintained a trade balance. The production- and consumption-based embodied agricultural water uses demonstrate similar changing trends: both decrease from 1997 to 2007 and then significantly increase in 2010. The embodied agricultural water consumed by the primary industry shows a downward trend, whereas those consumed by the secondary and tertiary industries demonstrate an opposite trend. Therefore, in addition to the improvement of agricultural water efficiency, adjustments in consumption and trade structure are highly instrumental to the conservation of local agricultural water resources.

Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain

The yield gap (YG) between the potential yields (Yp) and the average on-farm yields (Ya) is an indicator of the potential improvement for crop production. Understanding how large the current gap is and how this gap has changed over the past few decades is essential for increasing wheat production to meet increased food demand in China. This paper describes a study conducted using an APSIM-Wheat model and farm-level crop yield to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the yield gap of winter wheat from 1981 to 2010 in the North China Plain. Nine varieties were calibrated and evaluated based on the data from 16 agro-meteorological experimental sites and then potential yields were estimated considering cultivar replacement. In addition, a trend pattern analysis of on-farm yields for the period 1981–2010 was conducted. Results revealed an estimated yield gap across the entire North China Plain region of 1140–6810kgha−1, with a weight average of 3630kgha−1 in 1981–2010. Expressed as a relative yield (yield gap % of potential yields), the range was 15–80%, and the weight average was 45%. Despite the negative effects of increasing temperature and decreasing radiation, the potential yields significantly increased by 45kgha−1 per year due to cultivar improvement. On-farm yields increased even more notably because of new cultivar selection, increased fertilizer application and other management improvements, but were stagnating in 32.3% of wheat areas, located mainly in Hebei province, Shandong province, Beijing and Tianjin. The improvement of on-farm yields have substantially contributed to yield gap spatio-temporal variation. As a result, the yield gap decreased from 4200kgha−1 (56%) in 1981–1990 to 3000kgha−1 (35%) in 2001–2010 at a rate of −69kgha−1 per year. However, yields stagnation will expand to the northern Henan province without cultivar potential productivity improving, where yield gap was close to or less than 20% of the potential yields and proved difficult to reduce. To further improve the total production of winter wheat in the coming decades, efforts should be paid to break the potential ceiling and reduce the yield gap by breeding higher yield variety and introduction of new agricultural technology.

Advances in Chinese Agriculture and its Global Implications

AbstractIn the past thirty years, China has made great strides in terms of boosting food production while simultaneously reducing the number of its rural poor. This success was largely accomplished through agricultural policy and trade reform, food market liberalization, and public investment in agricultural infrastructure and agricultural research. However, there is much more economic development work to be done in rural China, as issues such as an aging agricultural workforce, land‐use rights, and water shortages persist. At the same time, increased urbanization and the rising middle class are changing the demand for food in China. This article outlines the issues facing Chinese agriculture and connects those issues to the global marketplace.