In the late Middle Ages, surging grain prices frequently triggered subsistence crises, as grain was the primary staple of nutrition. When these price shocks coincided with major mortality peaks from virulent plague outbreaks, households faced extreme economic and social pressures. The Second Plague Pandemic, which began with the Black Death in the mid-fourteenth century, saw recurring epidemics approximately every decade. In Flanders, the first three outbreaks of the plague were accompanied by significant spikes in grain prices, exacerbating food insecurity—particularly in urban areas, where most residents relied on market access for sustenance and were highly vulnerable to inflation. This study assesses the short-term evolution of urban households’ purchasing power during these crises by analysing welfare ratios based solely on grain prices. Drawing on a newly constructed monthly grain price series—the first of its kind for fourteenth-century continental Europe—this paper examines how epidemic-driven price surges intensified food insecurity. It identifies grain price volatility as the principal driver of fluctuations in purchasing power, emphasizing the critical importance of monthly price dynamics, as mortality peaks often occurred in late summer or autumn. By incorporating wage data for skilled and unskilled building laborers, the study provides coarse estimates of undernutrition and offers a comparative analysis of the timing, duration, and severity of food crises across Bruges, Ghent, Lille, Douai, and Cambrai. The findings indicate that the first three plague outbreaks of the mid-fourteenth century were closely tied to episodes of hunger, though the intensity and length of food shortages varied. The plague of 1360–1361 stands out as particularly severe. Additionally, regional disparities emerge: larger cities in northern Flanders, such as Bruges and Ghent, experienced relatively milder crises than those in the south, where institutional differences influenced the extent of food insecurity.
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