Flux Components Research Articles

Zonally Asymmetric Increase in Southern Ocean Heat Content

Abstract A zonally symmetric perspective has proven to be very useful in studying the key role of the Southern Ocean for global ocean heat uptake. Despite this, reconstructions of changes in Southern Ocean heat content ΔOHC over the past few decades have revealed substantial deviations from symmetry. Here, we investigate the zonal asymmetry of ΔOHC and the processes driving it for the period 1979–2019 using an eddy-permitting ocean model forced by atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). We find that the model successfully reproduces the observed zonal asymmetry in ΔOHC and that it is primarily due to zonal asymmetries in changing surface fluxes. Zonal asymmetries in mean ocean circulation play an important secondary role. Factorial simulations are used to attribute the asymmetry in ΔOHC to the different surface flux components (wind stress, heat, and freshwater fluxes), revealing strong regional differences. North of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), we find roughly equal contributions from changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Within the ACC, all three forcings play an important role, while south of it only wind stress and freshwater flux changes are important. Our findings argue for full consideration of the three-dimensional circulation to understand heat uptake and storage in the Southern Ocean, especially when considering multidecadal time scales where natural variations are as important as the long-term warming trend.

Effects of drought on optimum temperature of carbon fluxes in temperate grasslands

Abstract Ecosystem carbon flux components, including ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP), are the most direct indicators of ecosystem production capacity, carbon sequestration, and climate regulation strength. Nevertheless, little is known about how water availability affects the temperature responses of carbon flux components in water-limited ecosystems. Based on a long-term eddy observation dataset of temperate grasslands in northern China, we analyzed the effects of drought on the optimum temperature of carbon flux components ( T opt flux ) in temperate grassland ecosystems and clarified the relative contributions of vegetation and climate factors to T opt flux . We found that the optimum temperatures of carbon flux components were widespread across different grassland types, with a significant lower optimum temperature of NEP ( T opt NEP , 17.32 ± 3.21 °C) than that of GPP ( T opt GPP , 18.67 ± 2.53 °C) and ER ( T opt ER , 19.30 ± 1.94 °C). Drought significantly reduced T opt NEP , but had no significant effects on T opt GPP and T opt ER . Obvious shifts of occurrence date of T opt flux were also observed in the years with different precipitation regimes. That is, T opt GPP and T opt NEP occurred significantly earlier than seasonal maximum temperature ( T max ) in the dry years, while T opt flux significantly lagged behind the occurrence of T max in the wet years. Water availability and vegetation factors co-regulated the spatiotemporal variations of T opt flux . In the dry years, precipitation and soil water content predominated the changes in T opt GPP and T opt ER , whereas vegetation structure (leaf area index) and physiological characteristics played a more important role in the wet years. Our study not only provided the first evidence for the widespread existence of T opt flux of different carbon fluxes, but also addressed the remarkable impacts of drought on T opt flux and their occurrence date in the water-limited grasslands. Therefore, incorporating the unimodality of these observed temperature responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes into land carbon models is necessary for improving the accuracy of carbon sequestration predictions.

Mathematical modeling of stationary thermopervaporation through hydrophobic membrane

The paper proposes a one-dimensional mathematical model of stationary thermopervaporation of water-organic mixture through a non-porous hydrophobic membrane. The driving force of the process is the difference in the temperature and concentration of the mixture components on both sides of the membrane. The model takes into account the difference in interaction between molecules of the liquid and vapor phases of the mixture components with the membrane matrix (equilibrium distribution coefficients), as well as the difference in the diffusion coefficients of the components in all areas. The problem of heat transfer is solved independently. The temperature distribution in layers of the membrane system (diffusion boundary layer, membrane and permeate) is determined. It is assumed that the evaporation front coincides with the working side of the membrane. In the general case, the boundary value problem is solved numerically by the shooting method. As a result, the distribution of the mass fraction of the organic component over the membrane cell is obtained. The dependences of the separation factor and the pervaporation separation index (PSI) on the main parameters of the problem are determined. It is demonstrated that the dependence of the PSI on the separation factor has extremal character. This allows to select optimal conditions for thermopervaporation for the given parameters of the membrane system. In the limiting case when the fluxes of the mixture components are equal to zero, the solution is obtained analytically. The maximum possible separation factor can be determined using an analytical solution. The present model was successfully verified using the literature experimental data on the thermopervaporation separation of butanol and ethanol aqueous solutions through the membranes of various types.

Studying the kinetic energy budget and moisture transport during a severe case of cyclogenesis

This work aimed to investigate the kinetic energy budget and moisture transport of a case of cyclogenesis that causes intense rains over north and middle parts of Saudi Arabia on November 23–25, 2022. The study of kinetic energy (KE) and its budget concludes that the majority of the KE was concentrated at 400 hPa and above, coinciding with the powerful activity of the subtropical jet stream during the period of cyclogenesis. The KE generation through cross-contour flow serves as a major energy source. During the cyclogenesis process, KE dissipation from grid to subgrid scales is a major energy sink, while the horizontal flux divergence of KE acts as a source of KE. The study of moisture transport through the attributes of moisture-flux components and the dispersion of perceptible water during the cyclogenesis reveals that within the lower tropospheric layer, the rotating component of moisture flux brings moisture from two primary regions: One zone spans the Arabian Sea and includes the south Red Sea, north of Ethiopia, and central Sudan; the other region covers the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic. The primary moisture source in the middle layer is located over central Africa, with origins traced back to the Atlantic Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean.

Nonlinear Rayleigh wave propagation in a three-layer sandwich structure in dual-phase-lag

Plane, nonlinear Rayleigh wave propagation is investigated in a three-layer sandwich structure of a thermoelastic medium, within the frame of dual-phase-lag theory. The thermal conductivity is taken as a linear function of temperature. This induces nonlinearity in the evolution equations for the heat flux components. A particular solution is found in the form of Poincaré expansion in a small parameter that reflects the fluctuations of temperature about a steady value. This solution is discussed and plots are provided for a special case when both external faces of the structure are traction-free and under prescribed temperature regime. It is noted, in particular, that some quantities of practical interest suffer jumps at the interfaces. Some of the jumps appear only starting from the second order of approximation. The existence of jumps may be favourably used to carry out some measurements of material parameters.

Investigation of the steady state subcooled boiling regime in the hot subchannel of a VVER-1200 reactor core: A CFD analysis

A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis is carried out on a three-dimensional subchannel representing the most intensive fuel assembly to simulate the thermal-hydraulic performance of the VVER-1200 hot channel under steady-state operation. It is found that, subcooled boiling is predicted for both the rated and the conservative operational parameters with the intensity of bubble generation found to be higher for the conservative scenario compared with the rated one. The predicted boiling phenomenon at the cladding surface may result in the formation of deposits, and pits, and may impair the strength of the fuel elements, and increase the inhomogeneity in fuel burnup. Therefore; a thorough investigation of the predicted boiling regime is required to shed light on the development of this phenomenon in a typical reactor subchannel using CFD tools. The CFD work conducted in this work is based on the Eulerian multiphase model in ANSYS in conjunction with the RPI wall boiling model. The developed model has been validated against other one-dimensional models found in the literature. The variation of mass-averaged quantities (across the channel) along the subchannel generally agrees with the 1D models, which builds confidence in the modeling approach. Contours showing the spatial variations of temperatures, vapor void ratio, as well as heat fluxes are presented. Profiles of the different components of heat flux during boiling are presented. It has been found that the heat flux variations during boiling pass through three distinct regimes. In the first, a steady increase in quenching and evaporation heat flux is observed, while convective heat flux declines. In the second regime, the quenching and evaporation heat fluxes plateau with a slight decrease, while the convective heat flux becomes zero. This signifies that the outer clad surface is largely covered with vapor bubbles and the only heat transfer mechanisms are due to quenching and evaporation. During the last regime, quenching and evaporation heat fluxes decline due to the decline of the imposed heat flux at the clad surface, and hence convective heat transfer starts to increase. In addition, profiles of the mass-averaged coolant temperature, void fraction, and outer clad surface temperatures along the hot element underrated and conservative operating conditions are also generated.

Poynting Flux of MHD Modes in Magnetic Solar Vortex Tubes

Magnetic flux tubes in the presence of background rotational flows, known as solar vortex tubes, are abundant throughout the solar atmosphere and may act as conduits for MHD waves to transport magnetic energy to the upper solar atmosphere. We aim to investigate the Poynting flux associated with these waves within solar vortex tubes. We model a solar vortex tube as a straight magnetic flux tube with a background azimuthal velocity component. The MHD wave solutions in the equilibrium configuration of a vortex tube are obtained using the Shooting Eigensolver for SolAr Magnetohydrostatic Equilibria code and we derive an expression for the vertical component of the Poynting flux, S z , associated with MHD modes. In addition, we present 2D visualizations of the spatial structure of S z for different MHD modes under different background flow strengths. We show that S z increases in the presence of a background rotational flow when compared to a flux tube with no rotational flow. When the strength of the background flow is greater than 100 times the strength of the perturbation, the S z associated with non-axisymmetric (∣m∣ > 0) modes increases by over 1000% when compared to a magnetic flux tube in the absence of a background rotational flow. Furthermore, we present a fundamental property of solar vortices, namely that they cannot solely produce an upward Poynting flux in an untwisted tube, meaning that any observed S z in straight flux tubes must arise from perturbations, such as MHD waves.

JWST Observations of Young protoStars (JOYS)

Context. Due to the high visual extinction and lack of sensitive mid-infrared (MIR) telescopes, the origin and properties of outflows and jets from embedded Class 0 protostars are still poorly constrained. Aims. We aim to characterise the physical, kinematic, and dynamical properties of the HH 211 jet and outflow, one of the youngest protostellar flows. Methods. We used the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and its Mid-InfraRed Instrument (MIRI) in the 5–28 µm range to study the embedded HH 211 flow. We mapped a 0′.95 × 0′.22 region, covering the full extent of the blueshifted lobe, the central protostellar region, and a small portion of the redshifted lobe. We extracted spectra along the jet and outflow and constructed line and excitation maps of both atomic and molecular lines. Additional JWST NIRCam H2 narrow-band images (at 2.122 and 3.235 µm) provide a visualextinction map of the whole flow, and are used to deredden our data. Results. The jet-driving source is not detected even at the longest MIR wavelengths. The overall morphology of the flow consists of a highly collimated jet, which is mostly molecular (H2, HD) with an inner atomic ([Fe I], [Fe II], [S I], [Ni II]) structure. The jet shocks the ambient medium, producing several large bow shocks (BSs) that are rich in forbidden atomic ([Fe II], [S I], [Ni II], [Cl I], [Cl II], [Ar II], [Co II], [Ne II], [S III]) and molecular lines (H2, HD, CO, OH, H2O, CO2, HCO+), and is driving an H2 molecular outflow that is mostly traced by low- J, v = 0 transitions. Moreover, H2 0-0 S(1) uncollimated emission is also detected down to 2″-3″ (~650–1000 au) from the source, tracing a cold (T=200–400 K), less dense, and poorly collimated molecular wind. Two H2 components (warm, T =300–1000 K, and hot, T =1000–3500 K) are detected along the jet and outflow. The atomic jet ([Fe II] at 26 µm) is detected down to ~130 au from the source, whereas the lack of H2 emission (at 17 µm) close to the source is likely due to the large visual extinction (AV > 80 mag). Dust-continuum emission is detected at the terminal BSs and in the blue- and redshifted jet, and is likely attributable to dust lifted from the disc. Conclusions. The jet shows an onion-like structure, with layers of different size, velocity, temperature, and chemical composition. Moreover, moving from the inner jet to the outer BSs, different physical, kinematic, and excitation conditions for both molecular and atomic gas are observed. The mass-flux rate and momentum of the jet, as well as the momentum flux of the warm H2 component, are up to one order of magnitude higher than those inferred from the atomic jet component. Our findings indicate that the warm H2 red component is the main driver of the outflow, that is to say it is the most significant dynamical component of the jet, in contrast to jets from more evolved YSOs, where the atomic component is dominant.

Poynting flux transport channels formed in polar cap regions of neutron star magnetospheres

Context. Pair cascades in polar cap regions of neutron stars are considered to be an essential process in various models of coherent radio emissions of pulsars. The cascades produce pair plasma bunch discharges in quasi-periodic spark events. The cascade properties, and therefore also the coherent radiation, depend strongly on the magnetospheric plasma properties and vary significantly across and along the polar cap. Importantly, where the radio emission emanates from in the polar cap region is still uncertain. Aims. We investigate the generation of electromagnetic waves by pair cascades and their propagation in the polar cap for three representative inclination angles of a magnetic dipole, 0°, 45°, and 90°. Methods. We use two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations that include quantum-electrodynamic pair cascades in a charge-limited flow from the star surface. Results. We find that the discharge properties are strongly dependent on the magnetospheric current profile in the polar cap and that transport channels for high intensity Poynting flux are formed along magnetic field lines where the magnetospheric currents approach zero and where the plasma cannot carry the magnetospheric currents. There, the parallel Poynting flux component is efficiently transported away from the star and may eventually escape the magnetosphere as coherent radio waves. The Poynting flux decreases with increasing distance from the star in regions of high magnetospheric currents. Conclusions. Our model shows that no process of energy conversion from particles to waves is necessary for the coherent radio wave emission. Moreover, the pulsar radio beam does not have a cone structure; rather, the radiation generated by the oscillating electric gap fields directly escapes along open magnetic field lines in which no pair creation occurs.

Thermal field predictions and boiling curve reconstruction from bubble dynamics using conditional generative adversarial networks

Although the accurate prediction of boiling phenomena is crucial for preventing equipment damage and ensuring energy system safety, it remains challenging owing to the intertwined thermal–hydraulic interactions. We predicted the temperature field of boiling surfaces from the visualization results of bubble dynamics using conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs). The network was trained to generate infrared images from side-view images in a flow boiling experiment, and its rationale is supported by intermediate activation maps. Additionally, the model was applied to a data-deficient scenario based on pool boiling to derive heat flux components and reconstruct the boiling curve. This approach enhances the insight into both the visible and invisible aspects of boiling phenomena, which is particularly advantageous when direct and elaborate data acquisition faces facility limitations.

The Large-scale Anisotropy and Flux (de)magnification of Ultrahigh-energy Cosmic Rays in the Galactic Magnetic Field

We calculate the arrival direction distribution of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with a new suite of models of the Galactic magnetic field (GMF), assuming sources follow the large-scale structure of the Universe. Compared to previous GMF models, the amplitude of the dipole component of the UHECR arrival flux is significantly reduced. We find that the reduction is due to the accidentally coinciding position of the peak of the extragalactic UHECR flux and the boundary of strong flux demagnification due to the GMF toward the central region of the Galaxy. This serendipitous sensitivity of UHECR anisotropies to the GMF model will be a powerful probe of the source distribution as well as Galactic and extragalactic magnetic fields. Demagnification by the GMF also impacts the visibility of some popular source candidates.

Carbon dioxide and evapotranspiration fluxes in an urban area of Krakow, Poland

AbstractUrban areas play an essential role in the global carbon balance, being responsible for more than 70% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, entering the atmosphere mainly in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2). Another crucial component of the carbon balance of the urban atmosphere is CO2 exchange with the biosphere, expressed in both emission and absorption fluxes. The biosphere component of the net CO2 flux is inseparably linked to the water (H2O) balance due to evapotranspiration. This article presents an estimation of CO2 and H2O net fluxes based on eddy covariance (EC) tower measurements and in‐depth analysis of its temporal and spatial variability for a typical urban site at mid‐latitude of the northern hemisphere. The source area was divided into two sectors, one representing dense urban development with sources of CO2 from traffic and households, and the second containing predominantly recreation and sports areas. Temporal variability analysis of evapotranspiration showed a clear seasonal cycle closely correlated with incoming radiation and air temperature, with the seasonal mean ranging from 0.4 mm·day−1 in winter to 1.6 mm·day−1 in summer. As a result of similar green coverage between the urban and green sectors, spatial variability was statistically insignificant. The net CO2 flux over a seasonal cycle was less pronounced for the total source area with a mean of 5.0 g C·m−2·day−1 in summer and 7.5 g C·m−2·day−1 in winter. However, significant variations between urban and green sectors were observed with the highest seasonal mean difference of 4.5 g C·m−2·day−1 in winter. The results confirm that while on the local, short time‐scale urban vegetation has a potential to mitigate the emissions, it is not able to offset them.

Groundwater-derived carbon stimulates headwater stream CO2 emission potential on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

CO2 emissions from headwater streams are a crucial component of greenhouse gas flux in inland waters. However, the influence of groundwater, a major contributor to streams in the Asian Water Tower (Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, QTP), on CO2 levels remains unclear. This study employed stable isotope analysis and Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) to demonstrate that groundwater-derived dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) significantly enhanced CO2 supersaturation in the Shuiluo stream on the QTP. Specifically, the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), indicative of CO2 emission potential, increased more than threefold to 1,615 ± 495 μatm in groundwater-rich sites, nearly one time higher than the mean value (843 μatm) across the QTP. Groundwater-derived carbonate weathering had a significant impact of 76.6 % on the increased pCO2, whereas the degradation of highly unsaturated polyphenolics with high O/C contributed to 15.8 %. The estimated inflow of groundwater-derived DIC could reach 9.59 ± 0.34 Tg C/y in total runoff across the QTP, highlighting significant CO2 sources. This study presents new findings on the effects of groundwater-derived DIC on stream CO2 emissions in weathered regions and expands our knowledge of fluvial CO2 emissions on the QTP.

Particle resolved DNS and URANS simulations of turbulent heat transfer in packed structures

An accurate prediction of turbulent heat transfer in packed-bed reactors is fundamental for the design and performance of such reactors. Various classes of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes models are available in the literature for predicting turbulent heat transfer via closing the Reynolds stress and Turbulent Heat Flux terms. In this work, we investigate the accuracy of representative unsteady RANS turbulence models in modeling heat transfer characteristics in packed-bed reactors. For this accuracy assessment, the performance of the examined unsteady RANS models is compared with particle-resolved Direct Numerical Simulations including heat transfer. The simulations are conducted in a three dimensional periodic domain consisting of randomly arranged cylindrical particles for Reynolds number Rep=1000. The extracted mean quantities (e.g. velocity and temperature), turbulent heat flux components and turbulent kinetic energy are used as a reference for the RANS models' accuracy assessment. The SST k−ω and Spalart-Allmaras models performed well in predicting mean fields. However, all models tended to mispredicted the turbulent quantities including the turbulent viscosity and heat flux vector. The thermal field calculations rely on the turbulent viscosity based Simple Gradient Diffusion Hypothesis for modeling turbulent heat flux, which introduce challenges in capturing the coupling between thermal and turbulent fields.

Enhanced Drag Force Estimation in Automotive Design: A Surrogate Model Leveraging Limited Full-Order Model Drag Data and Comprehensive Physical Field Integration

In this paper, a novel surrogate model for shape-parametrized vehicle drag force prediction is proposed. It is assumed that only a limited dataset of high-fidelity CFD results is available, typically less than ten high-fidelity CFD solutions for different shape samples. The idea is to take advantage not only of the drag coefficients but also physical fields such as velocity, pressure, and kinetic energy evaluated on a cutting plane in the wake of the vehicle and perpendicular to the road. This additional “augmented” information provides a more accurate and robust prediction of the drag force compared to a standard surface response methodology. As a first step, an original reparametrization of the shape based on combination coefficients of shape principal components is proposed, leading to a low-dimensional representation of the shape space. The second step consists in determining principal components of the x-direction momentum flux through a cutting plane behind the car. The final step is to find the mapping between the reduced shape description and the momentum flux formula to achieve an accurate drag estimation. The resulting surrogate model is a space-parameter separated representation with shape principal component coefficients and spatial modes dedicated to drag-force evaluation. The algorithm can deal with shapes of variable mesh by using an optimal transport procedure that interpolates the fields on a shared reference mesh. The Machine Learning algorithm is challenged on a car concept with a three-dimensional shape design space. With only two well-chosen samples, the numerical algorithm is able to return a drag surrogate model with reasonable uniform error over the validation dataset. An incremental learning approach involving additional high-fidelity computations is also proposed. The leading algorithm is shown to improve the model accuracy. The study also shows the sensitivity of the results with respect to the initial experimental design. As feedback, we discuss and suggest what appear to be the correct choices of experimental designs for the best results.

Horizontal Heat Flux Spread in an Inner Corner of Buildings

This study investigates fire separation distances as essential means of passive fire protection in building design. The focus is on the inner corner configuration of building exterior walls, which represents the worst-case scenario for façade fire spread outside of a building. The inner-corner configuration appears to increase the intensity of the radiative heat flux due to reflection and reradiation of heat. Comprehensive approaches for determining fire separation distances around the various façade geometries can be found, but none of them is focused on detailed descriptions of the unprotected area in an inner corner. A medium-scale scenario was chosen and was experimentally validated with a radiant panel for a better understanding of heat flux spread. This paper compares the experiment with analytical and numerical models. The analytical model is based on the Stefan–Boltzmann law and the calculated configuration factor as per Eurocode 1. The numerical model combines radiative and convective components of the heat flux because convection is non-negligible near the heat source. Experimental data confirm the prediction based on the numerical and analytical model and show agreement. The final increase in heat flux due to the corner configuration investigated at the medium scale reaches up to 29%.

Energy-Preserving Perturbation Method for Thermally Induced Dynamics in Aerospace Tensegrity Structures

Tensegrity structures are emerging as pivotal components in the assembly of ultralarge modular spacecraft in orbit, primarily due to their exceptional volume-to-mass ratio and robust controllability. During on-orbit operations, given the low damping and high flexibility of tensegrity, its vibration-induced deformations affect the magnitude of the heat flux, presenting a typical force–shape coupling problem. This paper introduces an energy-preserving matrix perturbation solution designed to efficiently and accurately address the thermally induced vibration challenges in tensegrity. This method effectively mitigates the energy dissipation and numerical instability issues. Furthermore, the analysis incorporates the impact of the axial component of heat flux on structural vibration, uncovering the influence mechanism of this often-overlooked slow variable on the dynamic behavior of tensegrity. The proposed method demonstrates a deviation of less than 1% between the thermal response and the results obtained from finite element analysis, while achieving a 70% reduction in computation time. The varying axial thermal load leads to a rapid decrease in system frequency, resulting in divergent thermal vibrations. Additionally, the significant dynamic stress can potentially surpass the structural stress limits. These findings underscore the critical importance of considering such effects in the design and calculation of tensegrity structures for aerospace applications.

Trends of the Vertical Component of the Wave Activity Flux in the Northern Hemisphere

Trends of the Vertical Component of the Wave Activity Flux in the Northern Hemisphere

Ticking away: The long-term X-ray timing and spectral evolution of eRO-QPE2

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are repeated X-ray flares from galactic nuclei that recur every few hours to days, depending on the source. Despite some diversity in the recurrence and amplitude of eruptions, their striking regularity has motivated theorists to associate QPEs with orbital systems. Among the known QPE sources, eRO-QPE2 has shown the most regular flare timing and luminosity since its discovery. We report here on its long-term evolution over 3.3 yr from discovery and find that: i) the average QPE recurrence time per epoch has decreased over time, albeit not at a uniform rate; ii) the distinct alternation between consecutive long and short recurrence times found at discovery has not been significant since; iii) the spectral properties, namely flux and temperature of both eruptions and quiescence components, have remained remarkably consistent within uncertainties. We attempted to interpret these results as orbital period and eccentricity decay coupled with orbital and disk precession. However, since gaps between observations are too long, we are not able to distinguish between an evolution dominated by just a decreasing trend, or by large modulations (e.g. due to the precession frequencies at play). In the former case, the observed period decrease is roughly consistent with that of a star losing orbital energy due to hydrodynamic gas drag from disk collisions, although the related eccentricity decay is too fast and additional modulations have to contribute too. In the latter case, no conclusive remarks are possible on the orbital evolution and the nature of the orbiter due to the many effects at play. However, these two cases come with distinctive predictions for future X-ray data: in the case of a decreasing trend, we expect all future observations to show a shorter recurrence time than the latest epoch, while in the case of large-amplitude modulations we expect some future observations to be found with a larger recurrence, hence an apparent temporary period increase.

The role of air–sea heat flux for marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. Recent studies have significantly contributed to understanding physical mechanisms associated with the occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs). Building upon prior research, this study investigates the relative role of air–sea heat exchange and oceanic processes during the onset and decline phases of surface MHWs in the Mediterranean Sea based on a joint analysis of remote sensing data and reanalysis outputs over the period 1993–2022. Results show that air–sea heat flux is the major driver in 44 % of the onset and only 17 % of the declining MHW phases. Thus, these findings suggest that oceanic processes play a key role in driving sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during MHWs, particularly during declines. The role of surface flux becomes more important during warmer months and onset periods. Spatially, the heat flux contribution is greater in the Adriatic and Aegean sub-basins, where it becomes the major driver of most onset phases. Latent heat emerges as the most significant heat flux component in forming the SST evolution across all seasons. Onset and decline phases lasting less than 5 d experience a weaker contribution of heat flux compared to longer phases (lasting 5–10 or more than 10 d). Moreover, an inverse relationship between MHW severity and the contribution of heat flux is observed. At the subsurface, mixed layer shoaling is found over the entire duration of most MHWs, particularly for those of shorter duration. Therefore, the surface cooling right after the peak day is likely not associated with vertical mixing in such cases. These findings suggest that other oceanic processes, potentially horizontal advection, have a key role in modulating SST at the beginning of most MHW declines. In turn, further dissipation of heat is commonly driven by vertical mixing, as indicated by a significant mixed layer deepening after the MHW end day in most cases. This study emphasizes the need to consider subsurface information for future studies of MHWs and highlights the importance of accounting for limitations associated with the definitions employed for MHW phases.