Flux Centroid Research Articles

Jetsimpy: A Highly Efficient Hydrodynamic Code for Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow

Gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows are emissions from ultrarelativistic blast waves produced by a narrow jet interacting with surrounding matter. Since the first multimessenger observation of a neutron star merger, hydrodynamic modeling of GRB afterglows for structured jets with smoothly varying angular energy distributions has gained increased interest. While the evolution of a jet is well described by self-similar solutions in both ultrarelativistic and Newtonian limits, modeling the transitional phase remains challenging. This is due to the nonlinear spreading of a narrow jet to a spherical configuration and the breakdown of self-similar solutions. Analytical models are limited in capturing these nonlinear effects, while relativistic hydrodynamic simulations are computationally expensive, which restricts the exploration of various initial conditions. In this work, we introduce a reduced hydrodynamic model that approximates the blast wave as an infinitely thin two-dimensional surface. Further assuming axial symmetry, this model simplifies the simulation to one dimension and drastically reduces the computational costs. We have compared our modeling to relativistic hydrodynamic simulations and semianalytic methods, and applied it to fit the light curve and flux centroid motion of GRB 170817A. These comparisons demonstrate good agreement and validate our approach. We have developed this method into a numerical tool, jetsimpy, which models the synchrotron GRB afterglow emission from a blast wave with arbitrary angular energy and Lorentz factor distribution. Although the code is built with GRB afterglow in mind, it applies to any relativistic jet. This tool is particularly useful in Markov Chain Monte Carlo studies and is provided to the community.

South Atlantic Anomaly Evolution Seen by the Proton Flux

AbstractThe SEM‐2 (Space Environment Monitor‐2) instrument embedded on the NOAA‐15 Low Earth Orbit satellite provides measurements of trapped protons in the Van Allen inner belt from 1998 to nowadays. This continuous set of measurements enables us to study the dynamics of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) over more than two solar cycles, particularly, its temporal evolution. We observe that the area of the SAA is anti‐correlated with the solar activity. Two physical processes explain this anticorrelation. First, the more the Sun is active the more it disables the cosmic rays to reach the Earth's magnetosphere and fill in the inner radiation belt with protons. Then, when the Sun is more active, the upper atmosphere is warmer and therefore absorbs more protons from the radiation belt. Then, we investigate the protons flux centroid of the SAA. The temporal evolution of its position, latitude and, longitude is studied over the same time interval (1998–2022). We notice that the latitude of the centroid is also anti‐correlated with the solar activity whereas the longitude seems absolutely independent. The temporal evolution of the position of the centroid shows a drift of the SAA. Indeed from 1998 to 2022 the SAA drifted of about 7° West. The SEM‐2 instrument measures flux for protons of different energies (16, 36, 70, and, 140 MeV). For each energy, the SAA dynamic has a similar trend but with different values. These differences are investigated and the results are discussed.

Synthetic radio images of structured GRB and kilonova afterglows

ABSTRACT In this paper, we compute and analyse synthetic radio images of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and kilonova afterglows. For modelling the former, we consider GRB170817A-inspired set of parameters, while for the latter, we employ ejecta profiles from numerical-relativity simulations. We find that the kilonova afterglow sky map has a doughnut-like structure at early times that becomes more ring-like at late times. This is caused by the fact that the synchrotron emission from electrons following Maxwellian distribution function dominates the early beamed emission, while emissions from electrons following power-law distribution is important at late times. For an on-axis observer, the image flux centroid moves on the image plane, initially away from the observer. The image sizes, we find, are the largest for equal mass merger simulations with the soft equation of state. The presence of a kilonova afterglow affects the properties inferred from the source sky map, even if the GRB afterglow dominates the total flux density. The main effect is the reduction of the mean apparent velocity of the source, and an increase in the source size. However, this effect becomes negligible around the light curve peak of the GRB afterglow. For a far off-axis observer, neglecting the presence of the kilonova afterglow may lead to systematic errors in the inference of GRB properties from the sky map observations. Notably, at the observing angle inferred for GRB170817A, the presence of kilonova afterglow would affect the sky map properties, only at very late times $t\gtrsim 1500\,$ d.

Infrared dust echoes from neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT A significant fraction of binary neutron star mergers occur in star-forming galaxies where the UV-optical and soft X-ray emission from the relativistic jet may be absorbed by dust and re-emitted at longer wavelengths. We show that, for mergers occurring in gas-rich environment ($n_{\rm H}\gtrsim 0.5\rm \, cm^{-3}$ at a few to tens of pc) and when the viewing angle is less than about 30°, the emission from heated dust should be detectable by James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), with a detection rate of $\sim 1\rm \, yr^{-1}$. The spatial separation between the dust emission and the merger site is a few to 10 milli-arcsecs (for a source distance of 150 Mpc), which may be astrometrically resolved by JWST for sufficiently high signal-noise-ratio detections. Measuring the superluminal apparent speed of the flux centroid directly gives the orbital inclination of the merger, which can be combined with gravitational wave data to measure the Hubble constant. For a line of sight within the jet opening angle, the dust echoes are much brighter and may contaminate the search for kilonova candidates from short gamma-ray bursts, such as the case of GRB 130603B.

The afterglow emission from a stratified jet in GRB 170817A

The afterglow of GRB 170817A has been detected for more than three years, but the origin of the multi-band afterglow light curves remains under debate. A classical top-hat jet model is faced with difficulties in producing a shallow rise of the afterglow light curves as observed (Fν ∝ T 0.8). Here we reconsider the model of stratified ejecta with an energy profile of E(>Γ β) = E 0(Γ β)−k as the origin of the afterglow light curves of the burst, where Γ and β are the Lorentz factor and speed of the ejecta, respectively. k is the power-law slope of the energy profile. We consider that the ejecta are collimated into jets. Two kinds of jet evolutions are investigated, including a lateral-spreading jet and a non-lateral-spreading jet. We fit the multi-band afterglow light curves, including the X-ray data at one thousand days post-burst, and find that both the models of the spreading and non-spreading jets can fit the light curves well, but the observed angular size of the source and the apparent velocity of the flux centroid for the spreading jet model are beyond the observation limits, while the non-spreading jet model meets the observation limits. Some of the best-fit parameters for the non-spreading jet model, such as the number density of the circumburst medium ∼10−2 cm−3 and the total jet kinetic energy E ∼ 4.8 × 1051 erg, also appear plausible. The best-fit slope of the jet energy profile is k ∼ 7.1. Our results suggest that the afterglow of GRB 170817A may arise from the stratified jet and that the lateral spreading of the jet is not significant.

Numerical Simulations of an Initially Top-hat Jet and the Afterglow of GW170817/GRB170817A

Abstract The afterglow of GRB 170817A/GW170817 was very unusual, slowly rising as , peaking at days, and sharply decaying as . Very-long-baseline interferometry observations revealed an unresolved radio afterglow image whose flux centroid apparently moved superluminally with v app ≈ 4c between 75 and 230 days, clearly indicating that the afterglow was dominated by a relativistic jet’s compact core. Different jet angular structures successfully explained the afterglow light curves: Gaussian and steep power-law profiles with narrow core angles θ c ≲ 5° and significantly larger viewing angles θ obs/θ c ∼ 3−5. However, a top-hat jet (THJ; conical with sharp edges at θ = θ 0) was ruled out because it appeared to produce an early flux rise much steeper ( with a ≳ 3) than observed. Using 2D relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of an initially THJ, we show that the initial steep flux rise is an artifact caused by the simulation’s finite start time, t 0, missing its flux contributions from t < t 0 and sometimes “compensated” using an analytic THJ. While an initially THJ is not very physical, such simulations are particularly useful at when the afterglow emission is dominated by the jet’s core and becomes insensitive to its exact initial angular profile if it drops off sharply outside of the core. We demonstrate that an initially THJ fits GW170817/GRB 170817A’s afterglow light curves and flux centroid motion at , for θ obs/θ 0 ≈ 3 and may also fit the earlier light curves for Γ0 = Γ(t 0) ≳ 102.5. We analytically express the degeneracies between the model parameters, and find a minimal jet energy of erg and circumburst medium density of .

Abundant serendipitous emission line sources with JWST/NIRSpec

Abstract The James Webb Space Telescope will provide observational capabilities that far exceed those of current ground- or space-based instrumentation. In particular, the Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) instrument will take highly sensitive spectroscopic data for hundreds of objects simultaneously from 0.6 to 5.3 $\mu$m. Current photometric observations suggest a large and increasing number of faint (MUV > −16) galaxies at high redshift, with increasing evidence that galaxies at these redshifts have optical emission lines with extremely high equivalent widths. A simple model of their emission line fluxes and number density evolution with redshift is used to predict the number of galaxies that NIRSpec will serendipitously observe during normal observations with the microshutter array. At exposure times of ≈20 h in the low-resolution prism mode, the model predicts that, on average, every open 1 × 3 ‘microslit’ will contain an un-targeted galaxy with a detectable [O iii] and/or H α emission line; while most of these detections are predicted to be of [O iii], H α detections alone would still number 0.56 per open ‘microslit’ for this exposure time. Many of these objects are spectroscopically detectable even when they are fainter than current photometric limits and/or their flux centroids lie outside of the open microshutter area. The predicted number counts for such galaxies match z ∼ 2 observations of [O iii] emitters from slitless grism spectroscopic surveys, as well as theoretical predictions based on sophisticated modelling of galaxy spectral energy distributions. These serendipitous detections could provide the largest numbers of z > 6 spectroscopic confirmations in the deepest NIRSpec surveys.

Off-axis afterglow light curves and images from 2D hydrodynamic simulations of double-sided GRB jets in a stratified external medium

Gamma-ray burst (GRB) jets are narrow, and thus typically point away from us. They are initially ultra-relativistic, causing their prompt $\gamma$-ray and early afterglow emission to be beamed away from us. However, as the jet gradually decelerates its beaming cone widens and eventually reaches our line of sight and the afterglow emission may be detected. Such orphan afterglows were not clearly detected so far. Nevertheless, they should be detected in upcoming optical or radio surveys, and it would be challenging to clearly distinguish between them and other types of transients. Therefore, we perform detailed, realistic calculations of the expected afterglow emission from GRB jets viewed at different angles from the jet's symmetry axis. The dynamics are calculated using 2D relativistic hydrodynamics simulations of jets propagating into different power-law external density profiles, $\rho_{\rm ext}\propto{}R^{-k}$ for $k=0,\,1,\,1.5,\,2$, ranging from a uniform ISM-like medium ($k=0$) to a stratified steady stellar-wind like profile ($k=2$). We calculate radio, optical and X-ray lightcurves, and the evolution of the radio afterglow image size, shape and flux centroid. This may help identify misaligned relativistic jets, whether initially ultra-relativistic and producing a GRB for observers within their beam, or (possibly intrinsically more common) moderately relativistic, in either (i) nearby supernovae Ib/c (some of which are associated with long duration GRBs), or (ii) in binary neutron star mergers, which may produce short duration GRBs, and may also be detected in gravitational waves (e.g. GW$\,$170827/GRB$\,$170817A with a weak prompt $\gamma$-ray emission may harbor an off-axis jet).

Afterglow imaging and polarization of misaligned structured GRB jets and cocoons: breaking the degeneracy in GRB 170817A

The X-ray to radio afterglow emission of GRB 170817A/GW 170817 so far scales as $F_\nu\propto\nu^{-0.6}t^{0.8}$ with observed frequency and time, consistent with a single power-law segment of the synchrotron spectrum from the external shock going into the ambient medium. This requires the effective isotropic equivalent afterglow shock energy in the visible region to increase as $\sim t^{1.7}$. The two main channels for such an energy increase are (i) \emph{radial}: more energy carried by slower material (in the visible region) gradually catches up with the afterglow shock and energizes it, and (ii) \emph{angular}: more energy in relativistic outflow moving at different angles to our line of sight, whose radiation is initially beamed away from us but its beaming cone gradually reaches our line of sight as it decelerates. One cannot distinguish between these explanations (or combinations of them) using only the X-ray to radio $F_\nu(t)$. Here we demonstrate that the most promising way to break this degeneracy is through afterglow imaging and polarization, by calculating the predicted evolution of the afterglow image (its size, shape and flux centroid) and linear polarization $\Pi(t)$ for different angular and/or radial outflow structures that fit $F_\nu(t)$. We consider two angular profiles -- a Gaussian and a narrow core with power-law wings in energy per solid angle, as well as a (cocoon motivated) (quasi-) spherical flow with radial velocity profile. For a jet viewed off-axis (and a magnetic field produced in the afterglow shock) $\Pi(t)$ peaks when the jet's core becomes visible, at $\approx2t_p$ where the lightcurve peaks at $t_p$, and the image can be elongated with aspect ratios$\;\gtrsim2$. A quasi-spherical flow has an almost circular image and a much lower $\Pi(t)$ (peaking at $\approx t_p$) and flux centroid displacement.

Validation of Small Kepler Transiting Planet Candidates in or near the Habitable Zone

Abstract A main goal of NASA’s Kepler Mission is to establish the frequency of potentially habitable Earth-size planets ( ). Relatively few such candidates identified by the mission can be confirmed to be rocky via dynamical measurement of their mass. Here we report an effort to validate 18 of them statistically using the BLENDER technique, by showing that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive. Our analysis incorporates follow-up observations including high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, high-resolution imaging, and information from the analysis of the flux centroids of the Kepler observations themselves. Although many of these candidates have been previously validated by others, the confidence levels reported typically ignore the possibility that the planet may transit a star different from the target along the same line of sight. If that were the case, a planet that appears small enough to be rocky may actually be considerably larger and therefore less interesting from the point of view of habitability. We take this into consideration here and are able to validate 15 of our candidates at a 99.73% (3σ) significance level or higher, and the other three at a slightly lower confidence. We characterize the GKM host stars using available ground-based observations and provide updated parameters for the planets, with sizes between 0.8 and 2.9 R ⊕. Seven of them (KOI-0438.02, 0463.01, 2418.01, 2626.01, 3282.01, 4036.01, and 5856.01) have a better than 50% chance of being smaller than 2 R ⊕ and being in the habitable zone of their host stars.

Centroid vetting of transiting planet candidates from the Next Generation Transit Survey

The Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS), operating in Paranal since 2016, is a wide-field survey to detect Neptunes and super-Earths transiting bright stars, which are suitable for precise radial velocity follow-up and characterisation. Thereby, its sub-mmag photometric precision and ability to identify false positives are crucial. Particularly, variable background objects blended in the photometric aperture frequently mimic Neptune-sized transits and are costly in follow-up time. These objects can best be identified with the centroiding technique: if the photometric flux is lost off-centre during an eclipse, the flux centroid shifts towards the centre of the target star. Although this method has successfully been employed by the Kepler mission, it has previously not been implemented from the ground. We present a fully-automated centroid vetting algorithm developed for NGTS, enabled by our high-precision auto-guiding. Our method allows detecting centroid shifts with an average precision of 0.75 milli-pixel, and down to 0.25 milli-pixel for specific targets, for a pixel size of 4.97 arcsec. The algorithm is now part of the NGTS candidate vetting pipeline and automatically employed for all detected signals. Further, we develop a joint Bayesian fitting model for all photometric and centroid data, allowing to disentangle which object (target or background) is causing the signal, and what its astrophysical parameters are. We demonstrate our method on two NGTS objects of interest. These achievements make NGTS the first ground-based wide-field transit survey ever to successfully apply the centroiding technique for automated candidate vetting, enabling the production of a robust candidate list before follow-up.

Polar Field Reversals and Active Region Decay

We study the relationship between polar field reversals and decayed active region magnetic flux. Photospheric active region flux is dispersed by differential rotation and turbulent diffusion, and is transported poleward by meridional flows and diffusion. We summarize the published evidence from observation and modeling of the influence of meridional flow variations and decaying active region flux’s spatial distribution, such as the Joy’s law tilt angle. Using NSO Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms covering cycles 21–24, we investigate in detail the relationship between the transport of decayed active region flux to high latitudes and changes in the polar field strength, including reversals in the magnetic polarity at the poles. By means of stack plots of low- and high-latitude slices of the synoptic magnetograms, the dispersal of flux from low to high latitudes is tracked, and the timing of this dispersal is compared to the polar field changes. In the most abrupt cases of polar field reversal, a few activity complexes (systems of active regions) are identified as the main cause. The poleward transport of large quantities of decayed trailing-polarity flux from these complexes is found to correlate well in time with the abrupt polar field changes. In each case, significant latitudinal displacements were found between the positive and negative flux centroids of the complexes, consistent with Joy’s law bipole tilt with trailing-polarity flux located poleward of leading-polarity flux. The activity complexes of the cycle 21 and 22 maxima were larger and longer-lived than those of the cycle 23 and 24 maxima, and the poleward surges were stronger and more unipolar and the polar field changes larger and faster. The cycle 21 and 22 polar reversals were dominated by only a few long-lived complexes whereas the cycle 23 and 24 reversals were the cumulative effects of more numerous, shorter-lived regions. We conclude that sizes and lifetimes of activity complexes are key to understanding the diversity of polar reversals.

Saturn's hinge parameter from Cassini magnetotail passes in 2013–2014

AbstractObservations of energetic charged particles (>40 keV) and magnetic fields were made by Cassini instruments during eight passes through Saturn's magnetotail in 2013 and 2014. These passes are unique because the spacecraft crossed the magnetotail plasma sheet at nearly perpendicular incidence, thus allowing an accurate cross‐section measurement. For each tail pass, Cassini/Magnetosphere Imaging Instrument detectors recorded fluxes that maximized at the center of the magnetotail while the Cassini/Magnetometer recorded magnetic field components in spherical coordinates for which BR = 0 at the center. These sheet encounters can be organized using the Arridge “bowl” model, an axially symmetric paraboloid surface for the neutral sheet that is characterized by a “hinge” distance rH. This hinge parameter can be computed for each pass and each observable by interpolating the observed encounter time between those times expected for rH = 10, 20, 30, and 40 Rs. The hinge distances vary considerably, although all values of rH are the same within statistical variation. The BR = 0 crossings yield an average rH = 26.8 ± 6.0 Rs. However, the 41–64 keV electrons exhibit a mean rH = 23.2 ± 9.2 Rs (if using flux peaks to mark disk crossings) or rH = 22.3 ± 5.7 Rs (if using flux centroids). On the other hand, the 56–106 keV ions display rH = 27.2 ± 6.4 Rs (peaks) and rH = 26.2 ± 8.1 Rs (centroids). Thus, the electrons have hinge distances slightly smaller than those of the magnetic field and ions. This behavior suggests that there may be one magnetotail for electrons and another for the ions and magnetic field.

VALIDATION OF 12 SMALLKEPLERTRANSITING PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE ZONE

We present an investigation of twelve candidate transiting planets from Kepler with orbital periods ranging from 34 to 207 days, selected from initial indications that they are small and potentially in the habitable zone (HZ) of their parent stars. Few of these objects are known. The expected Doppler signals are too small to confirm them by demonstrating that their masses are in the planetary regime. Here we verify their planetary nature by validating them statistically using the BLENDER technique, which simulates large numbers of false positives and compares the resulting light curves with the Kepler photometry. This analysis was supplemented with new follow-up observations (high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, adaptive optics imaging, and speckle interferometry), as well as an analysis of the flux centroids. For eleven of them (KOI-0571.05, 1422.04, 1422.05, 2529.02, 3255.01, 3284.01, 4005.01, 4087.01, 4622.01, 4742.01, and 4745.01) we show that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive, to a confidence level of 99.73% (3 sigma) or higher. For KOI-4427.01 the confidence level is about 99.2% (2.6 sigma). With our accurate characterization of the GKM host stars, the derived planetary radii range from 1.1 to 2.7 R_Earth. All twelve objects are confirmed to be in the HZ, and nine are small enough to be rocky. Excluding three of them that have been previously validated by others, our study doubles the number of known rocky planets in the HZ. KOI-3284.01 (Kepler-438b) and KOI-4742.01 (Kepler-442b) are the planets most similar to the Earth discovered to date when considering their size and incident flux jointly.

VERY-LONG-BASELINE INTERFEROMETRY OBSERVATIONS OF SN 2008D

We report on two epochs of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of the Type Ib/c supernova, SN 2008D, which was associated with the X-ray outburst XRF 080109. At our first epoch, at t = 30 days after the explosion, we observed at 22 and 8.4 GHz, and at our second, at t = 133 days, at 8.4 and 5.0 GHz. The VLBI observations allow us to accurately measure the source's size and position at each epoch, and thus constrain its expansion velocity and proper motion. We find the source at best marginally resolved at both epochs, allowing us to place a 3σ upper limit of ~ 0.75 c on the expansion velocity of a circular source. For an elongated source, our measurements are compatible with mildly relativistic expansion. However, our 3σ upper limit on the proper motion is 4 μas day–1, corresponding to an apparent velocity of less than 0.6 c, and is consistent with a stationary flux centroid. This limit rules out a relativistic jet such as a gamma-ray burst jet away from the line of sight, which would be expected to show apparent proper motion of greater than c. Taken together, our measurements argue against the presence of any long-lived relativistic outflow in SN 2008D. On the other hand, our measurements are consistent with the nonrelativistic expansion velocities of less than 30,000 km s–1 and small proper motions (< 500 km s–1) seen in typical supernovae.

Stirring the Embers: High‐Sensitivity VLBI Observations of GRB 030329

We present high sensitivity Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations 806 days after the gamma-ray burst of 2003 March 29 (GRB030329). The angular diameter of the radio afterglow is measured to be 0.347 +- 0.09 mas, corresponding to 0.99 +- 0.26 pc at the redshift of GRB030329 (z = 0.1685). The evolution of the image size favors a uniform external density over an R^-2 wind-like density profile (at distances of R >~10^18 cm from the source), although the latter cannot be ruled out yet. The current apparent expansion velocity of the image size is only mildly relativistic, suggesting a non-relativistic transition time of t_NR ~ 1 yr. A rebrightening, or at least a significant flattening in the flux decay, is expected within the next several years as the counter-jet becomes visible (this has not yet been observed). An upper limit of <1.9c is set on the proper motion of the flux centroid.

The Growth, Polarization, and Motion of the Radio Afterglow from the Giant Flare from SGR 1806-20

The extraordinary giant flare (GF) of 2004 December 27 from the soft gamma repeater SGR 1806-20 was followed by a bright radio afterglow. We present an analysis of VLA observations of this radio afterglow from SGR 1806-20, consisting of previously reported 8.5 GHz data covering days 7-20 after the GF, plus new observations at 8.5 and 22 GHz from day 24 to 81. We detect motion in the flux centroid of the afterglow, at an average velocity of (0.26 ± 0.03)c (assuming a distance of 15 kpc) at a position angle of -45°. This motion, in combination with the growth and polarization measurements, suggests an asymmetric outflow, mainly from one side of the magnetar. We find a deceleration in the expansion, from ~9 to <5 mas day-1. The time of deceleration is roughly coincident with the rebrightening in the radio light curve, as expected to result when the ejecta from the GF sweeps up enough of the external medium and transitions from a coasting phase to the Sedov-Taylor regime. The radio afterglow is elongated and maintains a 2 : 1 axis ratio with an average position angle of -40° (north through east), oriented perpendicular to the average intrinsic linear polarization angle.

Radio Imaging of Gamma-Ray Burst Jets in Nearby Supernovae

We calculate the time evolution of the flux, apparent size, and image centroid motion of gamma-ray burst (GRB) radio jets and show that they can be resolved by the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) at distances of hundreds of megaparsecs. We find that GRB 030329, which showed spectroscopic evidence for an associated Type Ic supernova (SN) at a distance of ≈800 Mpc, might just be resolvable by VLBA after several months. The prospects are much better for jets that are oriented sideways in similar SNe with no GRB counterpart; in particular, the motion of the flux centroid in such jets can be detected by the VLBA up to , even when the z ∼ 1 jet cannot be resolved. If most GRBs are accompanied by a Type Ib/c SN, then there should be a few SN/GRB jets per year within a distance 200 Mpc, and most of them would be oriented sideways with no gamma-ray or X-ray precursor. Detection of these jets can be used to calibrate the fraction of all core-collapse SNe that produce relativistic outflows and determine the local GRB rate. Overall, the rate of Type Ib/c SNe that do not produce a GRB at all, but rather make relativistic radio jets with an initial Lorentz factor of a few, may be larger by up to 2 orders of magnitude than the rate of those that produce GRBs. Subject headings: gamma rays: bursts — ISM: jets and outflows — supernovae: general On-line material: color figures