Fluvial Flood Research Articles

Unravelling the association between the impact of natural hazards and household poverty: evidence from the Indian Sundarban delta

Coastal regions have long been settled by humans due to their abundant resources for livelihoods, including agriculture, transportation, and rich biodiversity. However, natural and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and sea-level rise, and land subsidence, population pressure, developmental activities, pose threats to coastal sustainability. Natural hazards, such as fluvial or coastal floods, impact poorer and more vulnerable communities greater than more affluent communities. Quantitative assessments of how natural hazards affect vulnerable communities in deltaic regions are still limited, hampering the design of effective management strategies to increase household and community resilience. Drawing from Driving Forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), we quantify the associations between household poverty and the likelihood of material and human loss following a natural hazard using new survey data from 783 households within Indian Sundarban Delta community. The results suggest that the poorest households are significantly more likely to endure material and human losses following a natural hazard and repeated losses of livelihood make them more vulnerable to future risk. The results further suggest that salinization, tidal surge, erosion, and household location are also significant predictors of economic and human losses. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as the world’s food baskets, poverty reduction and increase societal resilience should be a primary pathway to strengthen the resilience of the poorest populations inhabiting deltas.

Land use influence on flood routing and retention from the viewpoint of hydromechanics

Implementing new concepts and measures for flood risk management may be restricted by hydromechanical processes. These processes govern the movement of water masses within rivers and their floodplains. Different hydraulic processes are still not fully understood or cannot be described satisfactorily by hydro‐numerical models due to uncertainty in input data. The choosing of the correct surface roughness has a huge influence on the results of hydro‐numerical calculation of historical and design flood events and their reliability for the assessment of flood risk mitigation measures like floodplain restoration. The authors try to outline the various effects of channel and floodplain roughness on fluvial flood routing and give examples. A method is presented for peak discharge calculation of historical flood events.

Beyond ‘flood hotspots’: Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK

This paper describes the development of a method that couples flood modelling with network analysis to evaluate the accessibility of city districts by emergency responders during flood events. We integrate numerical modelling of flood inundation with geographical analysis of service areas for the Ambulance Service and the Fire & Rescue Service. The method was demonstrated for two flood events in the City of York, UK to assess the vulnerability of care homes and sheltered accommodation. We determine the feasibility of emergency services gaining access within the statutory 8- and 10-min targets for high-priority, life-threatening incidents 75% of the time, during flood episodes. A hydrodynamic flood inundation model (FloodMap) simulates the 2014 pluvial and 2015 fluvial flood events. Predicted floods (with depth >25cm and areas >100m2) were overlain on the road network to identify sites with potentially restricted access. Accessibility of the city to emergency responders during flooding was quantified and mapped using; (i) spatial coverage from individual emergency nodes within the legislated timeframes, and; (ii) response times from individual emergency service nodes to vulnerable care homes and sheltered accommodation under flood and non-flood conditions. Results show that, during the 2015 fluvial flood, the area covered by two of the three Fire & Rescue Service stations reduced by 14% and 39% respectively, while the remaining station needed to increase its coverage by 39%. This amounts to an overall reduction of 6% and 20% for modelled and observed floods respectively. During the 2014 surface water flood, 7 out of 22 care homes (32%) and 15 out of 43 sheltered accommodation nodes (35%) had modelled response times above the 8-min threshold from any Ambulance station. Overall, modelled surface water flooding has a larger spatial footprint than fluvial flood events. Hence, accessibility of emergency services may be impacted differently depending on flood mechanism. Moreover, we expect emergency services to face greater challenges under a changing climate with a growing, more vulnerable population. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other cities, as well as for scenario-based evaluation of emergency preparedness to support strategic decision making, and in real-time forecasting to guide operational decisions where heavy rainfall lead-time and spatial resolution are sufficient.

City-scale accessibility of emergency responders operating during flood events

Abstract. Emergency responders often have to operate and respond to emergency situations during dynamic weather conditions, including floods. This paper demonstrates a novel method using existing tools and datasets to evaluate emergency responder accessibility during flood events within the city of Leicester, UK. Accessibility was quantified using the 8 and 10 min legislative targets for emergency provision for the ambulance and fire and rescue services respectively under "normal" no-flood conditions, as well as flood scenarios of various magnitudes (1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year recurrence intervals), with both surface water and fluvial flood conditions considered. Flood restrictions were processed based on previous hydrodynamic inundation modelling undertaken and inputted into a Network Analysis framework as restrictions for surface water and fluvial flood events. Surface water flooding was shown to cause more disruption to emergency responders operating within the city due to its widespread and spatially distributed footprint when compared to fluvial flood events of comparable magnitude. Fire and rescue 10 min accessibility was shown to decrease from 100, 66.5, 39.8 and 26.2 % under the no-flood, 1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year surface water flood scenarios respectively. Furthermore, total inaccessibility was shown to increase with flood magnitude from 6.0 % under the 1 in 20-year scenario to 31.0 % under the 1 in 100-year flood scenario. Additionally, the evolution of emergency service accessibility throughout a surface water flood event is outlined, demonstrating the rapid impact on emergency service accessibility within the first 15 min of the surface water flood event, with a reduction in service coverage and overlap being observed for the ambulance service during a 1 in 100-year flood event. The study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during emergency response to flood events at the city scale. It also provides a readily transferable method for exploring the impacts of natural hazards or disruptions in other cities or regions based on historic, scenario-based events or real-time forecasting, if such data are available.

Models, the Establishment, and the Real World: Why Do So Many Flood Problems Remain in the UK?

In spite of the proliferation of research and Government Reports on floods in the UK, there are about 5 million properties located in flood prone areas. Many of the houses have been built during the past 50 years with little regard to the existing and future flood risk. Decision makers, who are part of the Establishment, rely on the outputs of models which are produced by so called “experts”. But this information has been found to be flawed. However, the Establishment is largely unwilling to allow local knowledge when assessing flood risk, even though prevailing methodology suggests otherwise. This situation has grown worse since the formation of the Environment Agency in 1996. The public engagement with flood risk science and its application needs to proceed along a co-production of knowledge model. Three examples of the difficulties of making realistic assessments of fluvial flood risk are described. The problem of surface water flooding is also considered since it too has local causes which may not be accounted for in standard methodology. Finally, more open discussion and co-operation in identifying flood problems in the UK is called for.

A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard impact assessment in Concepción, Chile

Even though most cities are exposed to more than one hazard, local planners and decision-makers still have a limited understanding of the exposure and sensitivity to and the spatial distribution of hazards. We examine the impact of multiple hazards in the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA), Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy logic modelling was developed to explore the impact of weather-related hazards, including coastal flooding, fluvial flooding, water scarcity, heat stress, and wildfire. 32 indicators were standardised and then aggregated through a stepwise approach into a multi-hazard impact index. We find that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of impact between 1992 and 2002, due to a larger increase in the exposure rather than the modest decrease in sensitivity. Municipal sensitivity was driven mostly by changes in the population's age structure. Wildfires and water scarcity appeared to have the largest impact on all municipalities. Fuzzy modelling offered high flexibility in the standardisation and aggregation of indicators with diverse characteristics, while also providing a means to explore how the interaction of numerous indicators influenced the index. The resulting maps can help identify indicators, components, and hazards or combinations of hazards that most influence the impact on municipalities. The results can be used to improve and promote dialogue among policy-makers and stakeholders regarding prioritisation of resources for urban development in ways that can also reduce exposure and sensitivity and lower vulnerability to climate change. The methods presented can be adapted to other cities.

On the relation between fluvio-deltaic flood basin geomorphology and the wide-spread occurrence of arsenic pollution in shallow aquifers

Pollution of groundwater with natural (geogenic) arsenic occurs on an enormous, world-wide scale, and causes wide-spread, serious health risks for an estimated more than hundred million people who depend on the use of shallow aquifers for drinking and irrigation water. A literature review of key studies on arsenic concentration levels yields that Holocene fluvial and deltaic flood basins are the hotspots of arsenic pollution, and that the dominant geomorphological setting of the arsenic-polluted areas consists of shallow-depth meandering-river deposits with sand-prone fluvial point-bar deposits surrounded by clay-filled (clay plug) abandoned meander bends (oxbow lakes). Analysis of the lithofacies distribution and related permeability contrasts of the geomorphological elements in two cored wells in a point bar and adjacent clay plug along the Ganges River, in combination with data of arsenic concentrations and organic matter content reveals that the low-permeable clay-plug deposits have a high organic matter content and the adjacent permeable point-bar sands show high but spatially very variable arsenic concentrations. On the basis of the geomorphological juxtaposition, the analysis of fluvial depositional processes and lithofacies characteristics, inherent permeability distribution and the omnipresence of the two geomorphological elements in Holocene flood basins around the world, a generic model is presented for the wide-spread arsenic occurrence. The anoxic deeper part (hypolimnion) of the oxbow lake, and the clay plugs are identified as the loci of reactive organic carbon and microbial respiration in an anoxic environment that triggers the reductive dissolution of iron oxy-hydroxides and the release of arsenic on the scale of entire fluvial floodplains and deltaic basins. The adjacent permeable point-bar sands are identified as the effective trap for the dissolved arsenic, and the internal permeability heterogeneity is the cause for aquifer compartmentalization, with large arsenic concentration differences between neighboring compartments.

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%–40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Identifying heavy metal levels in historical flood water deposits using sediment cores

When designing mitigation and restoration strategies for aquatic systems affected by heavy metal contamination, we must first understand the sources of these pollutants. In this study, we introduce a methodology that identifies the heavy metal levels in floodplain lake sediments deposited by one source; fluvial floods. This is done by comparing sediment core heavy metal profiles (i.e., historical pollution trends) to physical and chemical properties of sediments in these cores (i.e., historical flooding trends). This methodology is applied to Willsmere and Bolin Billabongs, two urban floodplain lakes (billabongs) of the Yarra River (South-East Australia). Both billabongs are periodically inundated by flooding of the Yarra River and one billabong (Willsmere Billabong) is connected to an urban stormwater drainage network. 1–2-m long sediment cores (containing sediment deposits up to 500 years old) were taken from the billabongs and analysed for heavy metal concentrations (arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc). In cores from both billabongs, arsenic concentrations are high in the flood-borne sediments. In Bolin Billabong, absolute metal levels are similar in flood and non-flood deposits. In Willsmere Billabong, absolute copper, lead and zinc levels were generally lower in fluvial flood-borne sediments in the core compared to non-fluvial sediments. This suggests that heavy metal concentrations in Bolin Billabong sediments are relatively similar regardless of whether or not fluvial flooding is occurring. However for Willsmere Billabong, heavy metal concentrations are high when overland runoff, direct urban stormwater discharges or atmospheric deposition is occurring. As such, reducing the heavy metal concentrations in these transport pathways will be of great importance when trying to reduce heavy metal concentrations in Willsmere Billabong sediments. This study presents a proof-of-concept that can be applied to other polluted aquatic systems, to understand the importance of river floods in the contamination of the bed sediments of aquatic systems. As a cost effective and less time consuming alternative to extensive field monitoring, our proposed method can be used to identify the key sources of pollution and therefore support the development of effective management strategies.

The dependence of precipitation and its footprint on atmospheric temperature in idealized extratropical cyclones

AbstractFlood hazard is a function of the magnitude and spatial pattern of precipitation accumulation. The sensitivity of precipitation to atmospheric temperature is investigated for idealized extratropical cyclones, enabling us to examine the footprint of extreme precipitation (surface area where accumulated precipitation exceeds high thresholds) and the accumulation in different‐sized catchment areas. The mean precipitation increases with temperature, with the mean increase at 5.40%/°C. The 99.9th percentile of accumulated precipitation increases at 12.7%/°C for 1 h and 9.38%/°C for 24 h, both greater than Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling. The footprint of extreme precipitation grows considerably with temperature, with the relative increase generally greater for longer durations. The sensitivity of the footprint of extreme precipitation is generally super Clausius‐Clapeyron. The surface area of all precipitation shrinks with increasing temperature. Greater relative changes in the number of catchment areas exceeding extreme total precipitation are found when the domain is divided into larger rather than smaller catchment areas. This indicates that fluvial flooding may increase faster than pluvial flooding from extratropical cyclones in a warming world. When the catchment areas are ranked in order of total precipitation, the 99.9th percentile is found to increase slightly above Clausius‐Clapeyron expectations for all of the catchment sizes, from 9 km2 to 22,500 km2. This is surprising for larger catchment areas given the change in mean precipitation. We propose that this is due to spatially concentrated changes in extreme precipitation in the occluded front.

Indirect geophysical characterization of geohazards in mantled karst environments in the Ebro Basin

Karst hazards in the central Ebro Basin are related to subsidence and collapses owing to evaporitic rocks located several tens of metres below the surface. In this type of karst (mantle karst) cavities propagate upwards through a non-soluble rock, in this case Quaternary alluvial deposits. The typical geological series comprises a heterogeneous alluvial unit underlain by a soluble, mainly gypsiferous, substratum and several water tables that usually present high conductivity variations. The highest concentration of karstic evidence is identified along the fluvial flood plain of the Ebro River where clayey deposits dominate at the surface. These boundary conditions produce complex environments for the evaluation of geophysical data related to i) karst activity, ii) the presence of cavities below the water table and within the substratum and iii) the variable sedimentary architecture of fluvial deposits. During the past ten years different geophysical techniques have been used in order to characterize karst hazards in the Central Ebro Basin. These experiences have enabled the evaluation resolution, discrimination characterization and finding of karstic evidence using different approaches. The main success in the application of these geophysical techniques has been the quantification of karst hazards from the record of subsidence processes through changes in density, magnetic susceptibility, apparent conductivity and structure of the alluvial deposits. However, the identification of cavities below the alluvial series still represents a serious handicap wing to nonunivocal interpretations and low resolution or penetration of geophysical techniques.

Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households

Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.

Application of Remote Sensing Data to Constrain Operational Rainfall-Driven Flood Forecasting: A Review

Fluvial flooding is one of the most catastrophic natural disasters threatening people’s lives and possessions. Flood forecasting systems, which simulate runoff generation and propagation processes, provide information to support flood warning delivery and emergency response. The forecasting models need to be driven by input data and further constrained by historical and real-time observations using batch calibration and/or data assimilation techniques so as to produce relatively accurate and reliable flow forecasts. Traditionally, flood forecasting models are forced, calibrated and updated using in-situ measurements, e.g., gauged precipitation and discharge. The rapid development of hydrologic remote sensing offers a potential to provide additional/alternative forcing and constraint to facilitate timely and reliable forecasts. This has brought increasing interest to exploring the use of remote sensing data for flood forecasting. This paper reviews the recent advances on integration of remotely sensed precipitation and soil moisture with rainfall-runoff models for rainfall-driven flood forecasting. Scientific and operational challenges on the effective and optimal integration of remote sensing data into forecasting models are discussed.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Abstract. Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial–pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards – fluvial, pluvial and combined – were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales?

AbstractThe frequency of floods has been projected to increase across Europe in the coming decades due to extreme weather events. However, our understanding of how flood frequency is affected by geomorphic changes in river channel capacity remains limited. This paper seeks to quantify the influence of trends in channel capacity on flood hazards. Measuring and predicting the effect of geomorphic changes on freshwater flooding is essential to mitigate the potential effects of major floods through informed planning and response. Hydrometric records from 41 stream gauging stations were used to measure trends in the flood stage (i.e. water surface elevation) frequency above the 1% annual exceedance threshold. The hydrologic and geomorphic components of flood hazard were quantified separately to determine their contribution to the total trend in flood stage frequency. Trends in cross‐sectional flow area and mean flow velocity were also investigated at the same flood stage threshold. Results showed that a 10% decrease (or increase) in the channel capacity would result in an increase (or decrease) in the flood frequency of approximately 1.5 days per year on average across these 41 sites. Widespread increases in the flood hazard frequency were amplified through both hydrologic and geomorphic effects. These findings suggest that overlooking the potential influence of changing channel capacity on flooding may be hazardous. Better understanding and quantifying the influence of geomorphic trends on flood hazard will provide key insight for managers and engineers into the driving mechanisms of fluvial flooding over relatively short timescales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applicability of a coastal morphodynamic model for fluvial environments

The dominant processes of sediment transport and morphological changes are different between rivers and coastal areas. In many situations rivers, estuaries and coasts need to be modelled together in an integrated way. This paper investigates the capability of a freely available, open source, coastal morphodynamic software (XBeach) to estimate sediment transport and morphological changes in fluvial environments. Four benchmark tests were designed to test code performance and included simple unidirectional flow cases, complex topography, fluvial flood flows (hydrographs) and dam break scenarios (fast transient, supercritical flow fields). The results were compared to laboratory experimental results or simulations results from industry standard software. Analysis suggested that the coastal morphodynamic code is able to simulate sediment transport and morphological changes in a fluvial environment, but there are limitations to what can be modelled and the accuracy to which they are modelled. General morphological trends are replicated reasonably well by the code however specific bed forms and rapid erosive responses are less well modelled. Suggestions are made for applicability of the code, code improvement and future work.

Method for Incorporating Morphological Sensitivity into Flood Inundation Modeling

AbstractTypically, the analysis and design of fluvial flood defence schemes is based on a single N year extreme flow event using a single survey of the river channel and flood plains. Adopting this approach assumes that the channel capacity is identical for all subsequent N year events. If one assumes that the typical design life for a flood defence scheme is of the order of 50 years, then such an approach is flawed because river channel morphology, and hence flood conveyance, may change considerably over this time scale. Therefore, to provide a more robust estimate of future flood inundation, a sensitivity analysis of these changes should be undertaken. This paper proposes a modeling methodology that combines a stochastic model, for estimating streamflow throughout the design period, and a 1D sediment transport model (HEC-RAS), to enable this sensitivity to be included in flood inundation modeling and defence scheme design. The methodology is demonstrated through conceptual implementation to evaluate the...

Effects of Morphological Change on Fluvial Flood Patterns Evaluated by a Hydro-geomorphological Model

High aggradation and degradation in a river induced by last flood event will respectively raise and decrease the risk of an upcoming flood event. However, this point is likely to be ignored or is not fully considered in some 2D fluvial flood models. To address this problem, this work develops a 2D high-resolution hydrodynamic model coupled with the sediment transport and the river bed evolution models. The modelling system is within the framework of a Godunov-type finite volume scheme. GPU technique is applied to accelerate the computation by more than 10 times, comparing to the CPU counterpart. After being validated against an experimental benchmark test, the model is applied to simulate the effects of the morphological change on flood patterns for the Bayangaole Reach of Yellow River, China. The results indicate that the effect of perturbed bed could be of significance for the fluvial flood over movable bed. It is therefore suggested to take into account when evaluating the flood risk in this case.

洪水営力による樹木管理後の幼木林動態を踏まえた樹林化抑制手法の考察

Gravel-bed rivers in Japan are now facing a multitude of problems relating to fluvial environment and flood control. These problems include the expansion of river beds with less disturbance by flooding and the growth of the riverine trees and the decrease of high-quality gravel-bed bars and the immobilization of low-flow channel. In particular, the gravel bed river that dominated by vigorous growth of Willows and Robinia pseudo-acacia, sometimes increase the riverine trees by vegetative propagation under the flood disturbance. In addition, expansion of the overgrowth density is likely to occur as the young riverine trees that easily fallen by flood disturbance. In this study, to target the gravel bed of Watarase river that Robinia pseudo-acacia, etc. grows in the river, evaluated the dynamics of young riverine trees after felling, and proposed the excavation shape of gravel-bed bar for forestation suppressing by using flood disturbance.

The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer

The assessment of future flood risk presented considers three climate change scenarios (a 2°C and 4°C change in Global Mean Temperature by the 2050s and 2080s and a more extreme, but plausible future, the so-called H++ future), and three population growth projections (low, high and no growth). The analysis covers the whole of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and the risks associated with coastal, fluvial, surface water and groundwater flooding. Eight individual Adaptation Measures (including spatial planning, flood defence, catchment storage) are used to construct five Adaptation Scenarios (including enhanced and reduced levels of adaptation ambition in comparison to present day). Future flood risks for a range of climate, population and adaptation combinations are assessed using the UK Future Flood Explorer. The analysis highlights that significant increases in flood risk are projected to occur as early as the 2020s; a finding that reinforces the need for urgent action. The analysis also highlights that to manage risk effectively under a 2 or 4°C future an enhanced whole system approach to adaptation is needed. This will require action by a broad range of stakeholders, from national level down to individual households and businesses.