Revenue Fluctuations Research Articles

AN ANALYSIS OF GST IMPLEMENTATION AND TRENDS IN REVENUE COLLECTION FROM 2017-18 TO 2023-24

India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST), implemented on July 1, 2017, revolutionized the country's indirect tax system by replacing a complex array of taxes with a unified consumption tax. This study analyzes the implementation, features, and trends of GST from fiscal year 2017-18 to 2023-24, utilizing secondary data from the Economic Survey of India 2023-24. The total GST revenue has shown significant growth, rising from ₹5,39,601 crores in 2017-18 to ₹15,18,127 crores in 2023-24. The GST structure operates under a dual system, with Central Goods and Services Tax (CGST) and State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) being key components, alongside the Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) for inter-state trade. High-contributing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka have strengthened their positions, while states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand face challenges. The analysis also reveals fluctuations in revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with a robust recovery in subsequent years. Key findings underscore the need for targeted interventions in lower-performing regions, improvements in tax administration, and policy adjustments to address the declining share of cess. This research highlights the pivotal role of GST in enhancing tax compliance and broadening the tax base, laying the groundwork for sustainable economic growth in India. KEY WORDS: Goods and Services Tax (GST), Tax Compliance, Indirect Taxation, Economic Growth, Public Finance

How Important are Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks in Explaining Government Tax Revenue Fluctuations? Evidence from Ethiopia

Using a new database of commodity terms of trade and identifying country-specific commodity export and import price shocks separately, this article mainly aims to examine the importance of commodity export and import price shocks in explaining government tax revenue fluctuations using Ethiopia as an example over the sample period 1980–2019. This article employs a structural vector autoregressive model and forecast error variance decomposition analysis to address this objective. The results show that commodity export and import price shocks account for around 48% of government tax revenue fluctuations. While commodity export price shocks contribute to around 37% of fluctuations in government tax revenue, commodity import price shocks account for only 11% of government tax revenue fluctuations. These findings are discussed in terms of their policy implications. JEL Classification C32, F41, F44

Fiscal Policy and Economic Resilience: The Impact of Government Consumption Alongside Oil and Non-Oil Revenues on Saudi Arabia’s GDP during Crises (1969–2022)

This study investigates the impact of Government Consumption (GC) on Saudi Arabia’s GDP during major economic crises from 1969 to 2022, focusing on periods marked by fluctuations in oil and non-oil revenues. By integrating these revenue streams, the research provides a more comprehensive analysis of fiscal policy effectiveness during economic downturns. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study reveals the complex role of Government Consumption (GC) in stabilizing and stimulating the Saudi economy amidst revenue volatility. Key findings indicate that while GC does not significantly influence GDP in the short term, its long-term effectiveness varies across different crises. Specifically, GC has acted as a buffer against immediate economic shocks during certain crises while providing a stimulus for economic recovery in others. During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, timely fiscal measures significantly boosted GDP, underscoring the importance of adaptive and proactive fiscal policies. Conversely, the 2014–2016 oil price collapse demonstrated that GC alone was insufficient to counteract economic downturns, emphasizing the need for diversified revenue strategies. These findings underscore the dual role of GC in economic stabilization and recovery. During the COVID-19 pandemic, GC played a crucial role in both mitigating negative economic impacts and supporting recovery efforts, showcasing its effectiveness in times of global disruptions. This demonstrates GC’s capability as an immediate buffer against economic shocks and a stimulus for economic recovery. In contrast, during the 2014–2016 oil price collapse, GC was less effective, indicating the limitations of relying solely on government spending without broader economic diversification. This highlights the necessity of diversified revenue strategies to complement fiscal measures for long-term economic resilience. The robustness of the findings was ensured through various diagnostic tests, including checks for autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and stationarity of residuals. The absence of significant autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity, along with the stationarity of differenced variables, confirms the validity of the econometric models used. The study contributes to the discourse on fiscal policy in oil-dependent economies by illustrating the critical role of diversified revenue strategies and adaptive fiscal measures in enhancing economic resilience. Recommendations are offered for policymakers to optimize fiscal strategies, ensuring robust economic recovery and long-term stability in volatile markets. This research highlights the necessity for Saudi Arabia to refine its fiscal policies towards greater economic diversification and stability.

Do the Economic Growth, PAD, DAU and DAK Fluctuations Effect on Capital Expenditures?

This research aims to determine the effect of economic growth, fluctuations in local revenue, fluctuations in general allocation funds, and fluctuations in special allocation funds on capital expenditure. The data in this research is secondary data obtained from the Republic of Indonesia Financial Audit Agency (BPK RI). This research uses data from Regional Government Financial Reports (LKPD) regarding Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) and Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget Realization Reports (APBD) for Regencies/Cities throughout South Sumatra for 2018-2020. The data analysis technique used is quantitative analysis. The results of this research partially show that the variables Fluctuations in Regional Original Income and Fluctuations in Special Allocation Funds influence Capital Expenditures. Meanwhile, the Economic Growth and General Allocation Fund Fluctuations do not affect Capital Expenditures. Managerial implications suggest that regional governments should enhance revenue stability and strategically manage fund allocations to ensure consistent and sustainable capital investments. This approach will enable better financial planning and improved infrastructure development, ultimately fostering regional economic growth and development.

Profitability Analysis and Sensitivity Level of White Shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) Cultivation Using the Millennial Shrimp Farming (MSF) System

Millennial Shrimp Farming (MSF) is an innovative cultivation system known for its efficient production methods and advanced technology. This study explores the economics aspects of cultivating vaname shrimp using MSF systems, with a focus on profitability and sensitivity. This research was carried out at the MSF CV Nusantara Agro Mandiri, using three cultivation ponds and one water reservoir. To assess business viability, the analysis carried out includes Total Cost, Total Revenue, R/C, Profit, BEP Unit, BEP Sales, PP, and ROI. The results indicate that this business is economically feasible, with a BEP Unit of 1,186 kg and a minimum BEP sales price of IDR42,279/kg, while the production reached 6,120 kg. The R/C value of 1.30 signifies efficiency and profitability. The business vulnerability, at 30%, exceeds the Indonesian state bank interest rate of 12%. With an ROI of 30% and a NPV of IDR382,662,975, along with Net B/C, R/C, IRR, and PP indicators (6.96; 1.3; 63%; and 1.6 years, respectively), this business can be classified as both feasible and profitable. In sensitivity analysis, white shrimp farming with the MSF system is a viable and profitable endeavor with a low level of sensitivity to fluctuations in feed prices and uncertain operational revenues.

Resilience and recovery: Analyzing the economic impact of COVID-19 on Beijing's catering industry

The COVID-19 pandemic, which emerged in late 2019, had far-reaching economic consequences, impacting industries worldwide. This study examines the specific case of Beijings catering industry to understand how it undergoes the pandemics challenges and what lies ahead. Using quarterly revenue data from 2017 to 2022 sourced from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, an ARIMA model is employed for analysis. The model not only reveals the pandemics impact on revenue but also provides forecasts for the future. In 2022, quarterly analyses illustrate a complex narrative of the industrys resilience. Revenue fluctuations reflect the influence of government policies, highlighting the need for businesses to remain adaptable and monitor policy changes closely. The predictive ARIMA model suggests relative stability for the catering industry in the coming quarters, serving as a useful reference for strategic planning. However, external factors such as market dynamics and policy shifts must be considered. Furthermore, actionable recommendations for catering businesses are offered. These include remaining agile in response to policy changes, investing in employee training and development, and embracing digital marketing strategies.

Transitory shocks, limited attention, and a firm’s decision to exit

This paper investigates the incidence of limited attention in a high-stakes business setting: a bar owner may be unable to purge transitory shocks from noisy profit signals when deciding whether to exit. Combining a 24-year monthly panel on the alcohol revenues from every bar in Texas with weather data, we find suggestive evidence that inexperienced, distantly located owners may overreact to the transitory component of revenue relative to the persistent component. This apparent asymmetric response is muted under higher revenue fluctuations. We formulate and estimate a structural model to endogenize attention allocation by owners with different thinking cost. Under the assumptions of the model, we find that 3.9% bars make incorrect exit decisions due to limited attention. As exits are irreversible, permanent decisions, small mistakes at the margin interpreting profit signals can lead to large welfare losses for entrepreneurs.

Proposed A Design Performance Management System By Using Knowledge-Based Performance Management System Framework At PT. Marjaya Utama Wisata

Indonesia's tourism sector was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 56% drop in its contribution to the country's GDP (Gross et al.). However, the sector has significantly recovered, with foreign tourist arrivals increasing 119.64% in June 2023 compared to the previous year. In response to this phenomenon, service providers, such as Performance Management Systems (PMS), must implement effective strategies to maximise their potential. PT. Marjaya Utama Wisata (Marjaya Trans), a travel agency based in Bandung, experienced significant growth but experienced fluctuations in revenue and experienced losses in some years. Designing a comprehensive performance management system was necessary to deal with these problems. This research proposes a proposed performance management system using the KBPMS framework. The proposed model was developed by combining a literature review and a case study approach from previous studies applied to the same industry. The analysis was conducted using a qualitative approach and multicriteria decision-making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach from the management ranks in the company. This research proposes KBPMS with 19 key performance indicators (KPIs) derived from vision, mission, strategy, business processes, and discussions between researchers and the company. From each aspect of the KBPMS, a priority order is generated from the AHP method to see which indicators have a high priority according to the company's management. It is expected that the application of the designed performance management system model can help the company achieve its goals. The development of this model is still in a stage that needs to be further developed. Evaluation and improvement of PMS implementation will be planned on a long-term basis

Analysis of Gas Station Financial Management to Prevent Fraud and Anticipate the Impact of Revenue Fluctuations

The aim of this research is to explore how management can prevent and control fraud and also anticipate the impact of fluctuations in ABC gas station revenues. The research methodology employed in this study is a qualitative approach with a case study conducted at ABC Gas Station. Data was gathered through interviews with the head of the finance department, administrative personnel, supervisors, managers, the director of ABC Gas Station, and the SPI Foundation team. The collected data was then analyzed and further developed utilizing the Triangle Fraud Theory, consisting of pressure, opportunity, and rationalization. By comprehending these factors, ABC Gas Station can pinpoint potential areas susceptible to fraudulent activities and implement appropriate controls to prevent them. This study provides valuable insights into the financial management practices at ABC Gas Station, offering actionable recommendations to strengthen operational integrity and navigate the challenges posed by fraud and revenue fluctuations. By implementing these suggestions, gas stations can ensure more robust financial management and secure long-term sustainability in a competitive market. This research significantly advances the understanding of financial management within gas stations by conducting a comprehensive evaluation of its susceptibility to fraudulent activities, particularly in light of past incidents. It uniquely combines financial analysis with the Triangle Fraud Theory to comprehensively assess the weaknesses in the financial management system and the justifications behind fraudulent actions. This integration of financial evaluation and fraud theory represents a fresh perspective in addressing financial integrity in gas station businesses.

Несырьевые поступления в консолидированный бюджет: анализ по видам экономической деятельности

This paper presents an analysis of non-resource revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia by types of economic activity. The purpose of this study was to identify which sectors are the most sensitive to shocks form the fiscal point of view, and to answer the questions: how long it takes for the revenues of different sectors recover from “local lows” and how the sectoral structure of budget revenues affects the volatility of payments. In accordance with the set objectives, we examined the dynamics of consolidated budget revenues in real terms for the period 2008–2022 as a whole and by sector. In addition, a sectoral analysis was provided for CIT. The calculations were based on the data of the Federal Tax Service prepared by excluding payments on natural rent. The analysis showed that revenue fluctuations are largely determined by the dynamics of payments from the extractive sector (especially oil production), and an increase in the sector’s share is likely to increase the overall volatility of revenues. In fiscal terms, the processing sector is the most sustainable for total revenues but provides a source of volatility in CIT dynamics. Revenues from financial activities show the fastest recovery from the crises. Trade and finance have a stabilizing effect on both total revenues and CIT dynamics. The results of the study can be used at the stage of budget planning.

Tourism and economic growth in Asia: a symmetric and asymmetric causality

ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between economic growth and real international tourism revenues (RITRs) in 11 Asian areas from 1995 to 2019. The method employed in this study involves utilizing a special bootstrap multivariate Granger causality test. The results of this analysis complement the findings of the asymmetric panel causality test, as they reveal a causal relationship between positive shocks to RITRs and positive shocks to real gross domestic product (RGDP) in Singapore and Thailand, respectively. Additionally, negative shocks in Cambodia, Hong Kong and Macau demonstrate a causal link between RITRs and RGDP, suggesting that fluctuations in tourism revenues can impact the economic growth of these regions.

Measuring the Relationship Between Economic Crises and Investment Portfolios - A Sample Study of Iraqi Banks

Purpose: The study aimed to measure the closing price indicators for the Iraqi bank sector during the period (2010-2020) and using the PMG / ARDL index, which is an acronym for pooled mean group / Autoregressive distributed lag, i.e. self-regression to slow down. Distributed tablet data, to measure the relationship between the components of the economic crises of the dependent variable (closing price) of the Iraqi banks, the study sample, and the independent variables each of (gross domestic product, market value, global oil prices and economic crises). Theoretical framework: The Iraqi economy is affected by economic crises along with the performance of investment portfolios in Iraqi banks. Methodology of the study: To highlight the different conclusions taken by the banks that contribute In its success: Barony's co-integration test, according to the four formulas, shows that there is long-term integration between the dependent variable (closing price) and the independent variables (market value, gross domestic product, crude oil prices) during the quarterly period 2010-2020, which means that the PMG method can be applied. /ARDL. Findings: This study showed that there is an adverse effect from the gross domestic product to the closing prices of the banking sector, and this can be justified by the increase in the gross domestic product associated with the increase in oil revenues. Because the oil sector contributes to 60% of GDP in Iraq. Practical & Social implications: Study main necessary comes from paying attention to the development of investment portfolios in Iraq by following solid policies in implementing the necessary procedures for investing in portfolios, raising awareness of the culture of investment portfolios within investment communities or investment companies, and establishing the idea of establishing a fund to guarantee investment portfolios in a symbiotic manner that reduces the risks of fluctuations in oil revenues resulting from Crises. Originality of study: Comes from that decision makers can reach solutions and treatments to mitigate their severity, and address the imbalance in the stock market in a way that achieves an improvement in the contribution formed by the rest sectors in the total GDP, and reduce the risks resulting from dependence on oil revenues.

Investigating the Impact of Global Policy and Political Shifts on Vietnamese Businesses

This paper examines how Vietnamese enterprises in various industries, including oil and gas, transportation, and food, were impacted by the tensions between Russia and Ukraine during the first half of 2022. By utilizing statistical comparison methods, the study found that there were fluctuations in revenue, profit, and other indicators that measure business activity. Specifically, in the oil and gas industry, companies such as Vietnam Gas Corporation, Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Joint Stock Company, and Ca Mau Petroleum Fertilizer Company saw higher revenue and financial ratios compared to the industry average, while other businesses experienced a decrease from the previous quarter. Transport companies benefited from increased import and export, as well as high freight rates and global price hikes for goods and materials. The food industry in Vietnam saw the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a significant opportunity for growth, but businesses still encountered challenges in capitalizing on this potential. As Vietnam's economy is deeply intertwined with the global economy, fluctuations and high inflation in the world economy can have an impact on the country's economy and businesses. Keywords: Market Volatility, Political Tension, Vietnamese Enterprises, Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Correlation between tax revenues and gross domestic product: Evidence from the developing economy

This paper examines the relationship between tax revenues and the economic growth of Kosovo as a developing country. The paper uses quarterly time series data for 2010:Q1–2021:Q4 collected by the Kosovo Statistical Agency and the Ministry of Finance of Kosovo. The data were analyzed using EViews v10. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen cointegration test, vector autoregressive (VAR) model, vector error correction model (VECM) estimation, and Granger causality test was used to analyze the model. The VECM results showed that fluctuations in tax revenues have a negative effect on the gross domestic product (GDP) in the long run. Using data from nine countries, Nguyen and Darsono (2022) demonstrated that tax revenues have an adverse effect on economic growth. Using Granger causality, the results showed that tax revenue growth could cause GDP growth, and GDP growth can cause tax revenue. Okonkwo (2018) recommends that the government tighten tax collection methods and regularly evaluate tax policies to maintain the country’s tax revenue. Since taxes boost economic growth and boost taxes in emerging economies, the government should implement effective tax collection measures. The importance of the paper lies in the fact that fluctuations in tax revenues are an important cause of negative changes in GDP in the long run.

Податок на прибуток: економічна сутність як об’єкта бухгалтерського обліку та його роль в економіці

The profitable activity of enterprises has economic, fiscal, and social significance within the boundaries of an individual enterprise and the state as a whole because it directly affects the revenue part of the budget due to fluctuations in income tax revenues. The purpose of the article is to clarify the economic content of the concepts of “income tax” and “profit” and to reveal their role in the country's economy based on the analysis of the theoretical views of scientists. The economic essence of the income tax was revealed. Since profit is considered one of the most ambiguous economic categories, the complexity of its definition is due to the variety of interests it covers. It was found that the income tax is: a) a direct tax that enterprises pay to the state budget from the profit received from operational, financial and investment activities; b) a specific fee of the business entity to the state budget for the use of natural, labour, socio-economic resources of the country. It has been established that the social purpose of the income tax is expressed not in the implementation of each of its functions separately but only in the aggregate of all its functions (i.e. regulatory, fiscal, control, economic and social function). Income tax has a dualistic nature, as it is formed in the accounting system based on its principles and methods and tax legislation. It acts as one of the tools for forming a balanced budget for the country and ensuring the efficiency of the development of the country's economy and the activities of enterprises. As an indicator of the efficiency of business activity, profit is subject to income tax. Taxation of enterprises should perform not only fiscal and regulatory but also social and economic functions, act as a means of state support and stimulation of production.

ThThe Effffects of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Iraq (2004-2020)

This study aims to evaluate monetary policy with measuring its effects on the economic growth in during (2004-2020). To achieve this goal, the study relies on the descriptive and analytical approach using time series data, and by applying the (ARDL) method, and it has reached several conclusions. The most important one is that there is a positive relationship between the money supply (M2) and economic growth. Also, there is a positive but weak relationship between the interest rate and economic growth, while a negative impact through the interest rate on the growth have been found. The study sheds light on the concerns about the instability of the monetary system as a result of fluctuations in oil revenues and the value of the US dollar. Accordingly, it is necessary to enhance the credibility of the Central Bank and conduct the integration and alignment of monetary policy with other economic k to avoid complete dependence on oil ذ policies such as fiscal policy, trade policy and others, and wor revenues.

Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Output in Nigeria

Concerned by the dismal performance of Nigeria’s industrial sector as evidenced by the sector’s inauspicious and uneven contributions to the country’s aggregate output and total government earnings, this study has been embarked upon to examine the impact of crude oil price volatility on industrial output in Nigeria. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was employed in estimating the time series data used in the study which spans from 1981–2019. The Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model was estimated to capture crude oil price fluctuations and government oil revenue fluctuations by obtaining the conditional variances from the estimated results. The study found that crude oil price fluctuation has negative impact on industrial output, while an increase in government oil revenue fluctuation results in a significant decrease in industrial output. It was also found that an increase in unearned government oil revenue leads to an insignificant decrease in industrial output, while government recurrent expenditure exerts positive but insignificant impact on industrial output. Domestic investment was found to have a positive and significant impact on industrial output while population growth has a positive and significant impact on industrial output. The study concludes that it is government’s financial imprudence that allows oil price volatility to be hazardous to Nigeria’s industrial output. It recommends more effective export diversification policies and a pro-development government financial structure that takes erratic oil revenue and inimical effects of high unproductive expenditures into account.

Iraq's Unemployment Realities and Causes: An Analytical Study

The main problem currently experienced by the countries of the world is the problem of unemployment, as the latter has become a social phenomenon of universal status, whether society is advanced or developing. After being part of the economic cycle, unemployment has become a structural problem, particularly in developing countries, where unemployment is generally exacerbated by the failure of development efforts, worsening external debt, and implementing strict financial discipline programs. Most countries in the Arab world have pursued different development paths for economic growth. Still, these paths have been unsustainable for a long time, as fluctuations in oil revenues during the mid-1980s have affected the results of development policies, creating several problems requiring economic reforms and restructuring. In all its forms and guises, unemployment has had a significant impact on the living standards of the workforce. Accordingly, lead to changes in the people's real income, resulting in poor purchasing power, changing consumption, and a significant loss to the national economy due to its survival below the level of total employment. Unemployment also leads to waste of human resources, particularly those with a high stock of human capital.

Self Assessment System : Upaya Edukatif Badan Pengelola Keuangan dalam Meningkatkan Penerimaan Pajak Perhotelan di Aceh Tengah

Hotel tax is a promising source of Regional Original Revenue (PAD) for Central Aceh district. Central Aceh as a tourist destination area that is always crowded with tourists makes hotels always full, especially during the holiday season. Until now, the hotel and lodging business in Central Aceh is growing and continuing to grow. If managed properly, this opportunity can certainly be utilized by the Central Aceh district government in increasing hotel tax revenue. However, based on the initial data collected, there are obstacles in hotel tax collection and there are significant fluctuations in hotel tax revenue. The purpose of this study was to find out how the efforts of the Central Aceh District Financial Management Agency increased hotel tax revenue and how hotel taxes contributed to Central Aceh District PAD. This research is a qualitative research with descriptive method. Source of data in this research is primary and secondary data. This research was conducted at the Central Aceh Regency Financial Management Board, Bunda hotel and Jeddah hotel. The results of this study indicate that the "self assessment system" tax collection system implemented by the Central Aceh District Financial Management Agency is not optimal in increasing hotel tax revenues. The facts found actually hotel tax revenue fluctuated and did not reach the target. The amount of tax deposited by the taxpayer is not in accordance with what it should be. This has an impact on the contribution of hotel taxes to Central Aceh district PAD for the past five years, which is included in the very low criteria. For this reason, the Central Aceh District Financial Management Agency continues to educate taxpayers by building awareness of paying taxes according to actual conditions. In addition, the financial management agency also made improvements to the hotel tax revenue management system, improved monitoring systems and improved law enforcement for non-compliant taxpayers.

Modeling for policy: Managing volatile oil windfalls in a resource-rich developing country

Designing policies for allocating revenues from natural resources is one of the most challenging issues faced by policy makers in resource-rich economies. This paper proposes different scenarios for optimizing crude oil revenues through the application and extension of a dynamic general equilibrium model in Iran. Under the base scenario, the government budget includes a predetermined percentage of revenues while in the policy scenario, three mechanisms involving savings, investments and revenue stabilization features are modeled separately. The simulation results for the base scenario show that the percentage changes in government revenue and economic growth are influenced by oil revenue fluctuations. However, in the policy scenario the mechanism proposed strengthens both government budgets and economic growth. The results of this scenario show a gradual decline over time in the reliance of government budgets on oil revenues while revenue from taxes broadens the budget base. Policy-wise, it can be argued that if governments adhere to the designed mechanisms, changes in oil revenues would not affect a country's macroeconomic variables. Also, having a sustainable revenue stream for the government and securing the real economic sectors against oil revenue shocks would enhance the benefits from natural resource endowments.