Fluctuations In Population Density Research Articles

Complex dynamics of a four-species food web model with nonlinear top predator harvesting and fear effect

In this paper, a four-species food web model is formulated to investigate the influence of fear effect and nonlinear top predator harvesting on the dynamical behaviors. The global stability of the system at the interior equilibrium is explored by Li–Muldowney geometric approach. By applying the Sotomayor’s theorem, it is shown that the system undergoes transcritical bifurcation and pitchfork bifurcation. The conditions for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation are established, and the stability of the bifurcating limit cycle is discussed by normal form theory. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out. It is observed that the system presents chaotic dynamics, periodic window and chaotic attractors. Two distinct routes to chaos are discovered, one is period doubling cascade and the other is the generation and destruction of quasi-periodic states. Moreover, it is found that the fear effect can suppress fluctuations in population density to stabilize the system.

Vegetation and animal production in pastures sprayed for western ragweed control

AbstractWestern ragweed (Ambrosia psilostachya DC) is one of the most common perennial, native forbs of western US rangelands. Cattle consume small quantities of western ragweed in their diets when present in the forage sward, and forage nutritive value tends to be greater than the associated grass component in those swards. Yet, many producers view western ragweed as an undesirable forb in rangelands. We conducted a study over two years to compare vegetative and stocker animal productivity in pastures that were either sprayed with dicamba at 6 oz/acre (0.19 lb a.i./acre) for western ragweed control or were left unsprayed. Pastures started the study with high western ragweed densities (>9 western ragweed plants/ft2) before pasture treatment, and spraying with dicamba significantly reduced western ragweed density and yield compared to unsprayed pastures (0.2 vs. 3.5 ragweed plants/ft2, and 0 vs. 206 lb/acre, respectively). Grass production and total vegetation production were similar between treatments. Crude protein and total digestible nutrients of western ragweed was greater than grass at all mid‐season and end of season sampling dates both years. Stocker animal gain was not different between pastures sprayed for ragweed control and pastures left unsprayed in either year, nor when averaged over the two years (189 vs. 188 lb/head, sprayed vs. unsprayed, respectively). Beef production per acre was also similar. The spray treatment was an added expense that did not result in greater total forage, grass, or animal production. With natural fluctuations in western ragweed population densities due to weather patterns, producers will likely experience little benefit from spraying for western ragweed alone in pasture.

Machine Vision for Efficient Electric Vehicle Charging Station Deployment

This research examines the optimization of the deployment of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations by using machine vision technology, which involves analyzing real-time data and geographical information. Geospatial data analysis reveals prospective sites for charging stations by considering population density and accessibility to roads, hence identifying regions with increased demand for electric vehicle charging. The assessment of electric vehicle (EV) traffic patterns highlights the ever-changing charging requirements at various times and places, underscoring the need of flexible deployment techniques. Furthermore, evaluating the costs of implementing the deployment and the capabilities of charging, it becomes apparent that there are compromises to be made between the initial expenditures of installation, the amount of power generated, and the quantity of charging stations. These trade-offs are essential for optimizing resources. The usage study of charging stations using machine vision reveals variations in the number of available charging points at different stations and the need for adaptive resource distribution timestamps, techniques. The examination of percentage change reveals notable fluctuations in population density, installation costs, and the availability of charging points. This information is crucial for making well-informed decisions about the deployment of charging infrastructure. Combining machine vision insights with geographical and traffic analyses presents a promising method to create data-driven strategies for the placement of EV charging stations. This approach addresses the changing needs of electric mobility and provides guidance to stakeholders for efficient and flexible charging solutions.

Efficient data collection for camera trap‐based density estimation: A preliminary assessment

Abstract Camera traps have great potential for generating wildlife insights by providing high resolution site‐specific data. Methods of data collection and analysis reliant on these tools for population density estimation can be relatively resource intensive, hindering their mainstream adoption. Here, we explore the potential of population density estimates derived from a distance sampling method based on optics theory, which greatly simplifies the process of setting up camera sites and analysing data. Specifically, we (1) tested the method on human subjects in an artificial environment, (2) compared it to another method relying on virtual grids on images using wild populations of black‐backed jackal (Canis mesomelas) and African civet (Civettictis civetta) in South Africa and (3) deployed it to estimate wild boar (Sus scrofa) population densities in Hungary. The initial human trials resulted in an estimate that was extremely close to true population density. When compared to the virtual grid method, results suggest that our distance sampling method can deliver accurate estimates with increased convenience and robustness against disruptions of the camera sites. The wild boar study resulted in a realistic density estimate, which can be used as a baseline when assessing future fluctuations in population density. As this new approach does not have special requirements for setting up camera sites, it is efficient and widely applicable across other density estimation methods requiring an estimate for effective detection distance. Additionally, the method can be applied in the retrospective analysis of existing datasets.

Exploring the Relationship between Temporal Fluctuations in Satellite Nightlight Imagery and Human Mobility across Africa

Mobile phone data have been increasingly used over the past decade or more as a pretty reliable indicator of human mobility to measure population movements and the associated changes in terms of population presence and density at multiple spatial and temporal scales. However, given the fact mobile phone data are not available everywhere and are generally difficult to access and share, mostly because of commercial restrictions and privacy concerns, more readily available data with global coverage, such as night-time light (NTL) imagery, have been alternatively used as a proxy for population density changes due to population movements. This study further explores the potential to use NTL brightness as a short-term mobility metric by analysing the relationship between NTL and smartphone-based Google Aggregated Mobility Research Dataset (GAMRD) data across twelve African countries over two periods: 2018–2019 and 2020. The data were stratified by a measure of the degree of urbanisation, whereby the administrative units of each country were assigned to one of eight classes ranging from low-density rural to high-density urban. Results from the correlation analysis, between the NTL Sum of Lights (SoL) radiance values and three different GAMRD-based flow metrics calculated at the administrative unit level, showed significant differences in NTL-GAMRD correlation values across the eight rural/urban classes. The highest correlations were typically found in predominantly rural areas, suggesting that the use of NTL data as a mobility metric may be less reliable in predominantly urban settings. This is likely due to the brightness saturation and higher brightness stability within the latter, showing less of an effect than in rural or peri-urban areas of changes in brightness due to people leaving or arriving. Human mobility in 2020 (during COVID-19-related restrictions) was observed to be significantly different than in 2018–2019, resulting in a reduced NTL-GAMRD correlation strength, especially in urban settings, most probably because of the monthly NTL SoL radiance values remaining relatively similar in 2018–2019 and 2020 and the human mobility, especially in urban settings, significantly decreasing in 2020 with respect to the previous considered period. The use of NTL data on its own to assess monthly mobility and the associated fluctuations in population density was therefore shown to be promising in rural and peri-urban areas but problematic in urban settings.

The quorum-sensing peptidic inhibitor rescues host immune system eradication: A novel infectivity mechanism

Subverting the host immune system is a major task for any given pathogen to assure its survival and proliferation. For the opportunistic human pathogen Bacillus cereus (Bc), immune evasion enables the establishment of potent infections. In various species of the Bc group, the pleiotropic regulator PlcR and its cognate cell-cell signaling peptide PapR7 regulate virulence gene expression in response to fluctuations in population density, i.e., a quorum-sensing (QS) system. However, how QS exerts its effects during infections and whether PlcR confers the immune evading ability remain unclear. Herein, we report how interception of the QS communication in Bc obliterates the ability to affect the host immune system. Here, we designed a peptide-based QS inhibitor that suppresses PlcR-dependent virulence factor expression and attenuates Bc infectivity in mouse models. We demonstrate that the QS peptidic inhibitor blocks host immune system-mediated eradication by reducing the expression of PlcR-regulated major toxins similarly to the profile that was observed for isogenic strains. Our findings provide evidence that Bc infectivity is regulated by QS circuit-mediated destruction of host immunity, thus reveal a interesting strategy to limit Bc virulence and enhance host defense. This peptidic quorum-quenching agent constitutes a readily accessible chemical tool for studying how other pathogen QS systems modulate host immunity and forms a basis for development of anti-infective therapeutics.

Spatially varying plankton synchrony patterns at seasonal and interannual scales in a well‐connected shelf sea

AbstractSpatial population synchrony, defined as spatial covariation in population density fluctuations, exists across different temporal and spatial scales. Determining the degree of spatial synchrony is useful for inferring environmental drivers of population variability in the wake of climate change. In this study, we applied novel statistical methods to detect spatial synchrony patterns of Calanus finmarchicus on the Northeast U.S. Shelf at multiple spatiotemporal scales using unevenly distributed data. Our results reveal that C. finmarchicus subpopulations connected by advection are not necessarily in synchrony, indicating that the degree of synchrony is likely influenced by heterogeneity of local habitats. In addition, regionally synchronous environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) may not play as significant a role in influencing subregional population dynamics as was previously hypothesized. Overlooking the spatial heterogeneity of synchronous patterns at different time scales could lead to erroneous inferences of potential environmental drivers responsible for C. finmarchicus variability.

Partial protection from fluctuating selection leads to evolution towards wider population size fluctuation and a novel mechanism of balancing selection.

When a population is partially protected from fluctuating selection, as when a seed bank is present, variance in fitness will be reduced and reproductive success of the population will be promoted. This study further investigates the effect of such a 'refuge' from fluctuating selection using a mathematical model that couples demographic and evolutionary dynamics. While alleles that cause smaller fluctuations in population density should be positively selected according to classical theoretic predictions, this study finds the opposite: alleles that increase the amplitude of population size fluctuation are positively selected if population density is weakly regulated. Under strong density regulation with a constant carrying capacity, long-term maintenance of polymorphism caused by the storage effect emerges. However, if the carrying capacity of the population is oscillating, mutant alleles whose fitness fluctuates in the same direction as population size are positively selected, eventually reaching fixation or intermediate frequencies that oscillate over time. This oscillatory polymorphism, which requires fitness fluctuations that can arise with simple trade-offs in life-history traits, is a novel form of balancing selection. These results highlight the importance of allowing joint demographic and population genetic changes in models, the failure of which prevents the discovery of novel eco-evolutionary dynamics.

MONTHLY VARIATION IN THE POPULATION AND BIOMASS OF EARTHWORMS IN RELATION TO ECOLOGICAL FACTORS FROM CROPLAND SITE AT RANCHI, JHARKHAND

Fluctuation of population density of the worms was assessed from a tropical cropland site at Ranchi for twenty months. The density of the worms was maximum in August 2008 and minimum in May 2008 respectively. Of the various factors studied rainfall, relative humidity, soil moisture, organic carbon and nitrogen content of the soil showed a significant positive correlation with the total worm density and biomass. Soil moisture content of the soil was considered to be the most important single factor responsible for the population fluctuation of the earthworms.

Mucus secretions in Cnidarian, an ecological, adaptive and evolutive tool

Mucus secretion provides an interface with unique and multifunctional properties between the epithelial cells of many aquatic organisms and their surrounding environment. Indeed, mucus is involved in various essential biological processes including feeding, reproduction, osmoregulation, competition for space, defense against pathogens, xenobiotics, and a multitude of environmental stressors. The ability to produce a functional mucus layer is an important evolutionary step, arising first in Cnidaria that allowed for the development of the mucus-lined digestive cavity seen in higher metazoans. Mucus secretion by cnidarians has been moderately investigated in both corals and jellyfish, which among cnidarians are the ones that have shown the highest secretion rates to date. However, although in corals the production of mucus has received more attention, especially in view of the important ecological role played in coral reefs, in medusozoans the topic is little considered. Although the mucus secreted by corals has innumerable and important immunological, nutritional, and protective responsibilities, it should be remembered that jellyfish too represent a fundamental component of marine trophic web, playing numerous and important roles that are still unclear today. What is certain is that jellyfish are characterized (especially in the era of climate change) by large fluctuations in population density, the ecological implications of which are poorly understood. However, in both cases (Medusozoans and Anthozoans) to date some aspects relating to mucous secretions seem completely obscure, such as the microbiome and its variations as a function of environmental conditions or ontogenetic development, its implications in the field of immunological ecology, the consequent energy costs and finally the role played by the mucus in evolutionary terms. This review summarizes the properties, functions, ecological implications and evolutionary importance of mucus, in cnidarians, mainly focusing its roles in corals and jellyfish. Understanding these aspects relating to the ecological and evolutionary importance played by mucus is of fundamental importance for the ecosystems functioning.

Waiting for love but not forever: Modeling the evolution of waiting time to selfing in hermaphrodites

Although mixed mating systems involving both selfing and outcrossing are fairly common in hermaphrodites, the mechanisms maintaining mixed mating are still unknown in many cases. In some species, individuals that have not yet found a mating partner delay self-fertilization for some time. This “waiting time” to selfing (WT) can exhibit heritable variation between individuals and is subject to two opposing selection pressures: waiting longer increases the density-dependent probability to encounter a mate within that time and thereby the chance to avoid inbreeding depression (ID) in offspring, but also increases the risk of dying before reproduction. It has long been hypothesized that fluctuations in population density and thus mate availability can lead to stable intermediate WTs, but to our knowledge there are so far no quantitative models that also take into account the joint evolutionary dynamics of ID. We use an individual-based model and a mathematical approximation to explore how delayed selfing evolves in response to density and density fluctuations. We find that at high density, when individuals meet often, WT evolution is dominated by genetic drift; at intermediate densities, strong ID causes WT to increase; and at low densities, ID is purged and WT approaches zero. Positive feedback loops drive the system to either complete selfing or complete outcrossing. Fluctuating density can slow down convergence to these alternative stable states. However, mixed mating, in the sense of either a stable polymorphism in WT, or stable intermediate waiting times, was never observed. Thus, additional factors need to be explored to explain the persistence of delayed selfing.

Density-dependent selection and the maintenance of colour polymorphism in barn owls.

The capacity of natural selection to generate adaptive changes is (according to the fundamental theorem of natural selection) proportional to the additive genetic variance in fitness. In spite of its importance for development of new adaptations to a changing environment, processes affecting the magnitude of the genetic variance in fitness-related traits are poorly understood. Here, we show that the red-white colour polymorphism in female barn owls is subject to density-dependent selection at the phenotypic and genotypic level. The diallelic melanocortin-1 receptor gene explained a large amount of the phenotypic variance in reddish coloration in the females ([Formula: see text]). Red individuals (RR genotype) were selected for at low densities, while white individuals (WW genotype) were favoured at high densities and were less sensitive to changes in density. We show that this density-dependent selection favours white individuals and predicts fixation of the white allele in this population at longer time scales without immigration or other selective forces. Still, fluctuating population density will cause selection to fluctuate and periodically favour red individuals. These results suggest how balancing selection caused by fluctuations in population density can be a general mechanism affecting the level of additive genetic variance in natural populations.

Population and Reproductive Dynamics of Zebra Mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in Warm, Low-Latitude North American Waters.

AbstractZebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), first reported in Texas during 2009, have infested 28 Texas reservoirs over 11 years. This species has not previously invaded water bodies as warm as those in Texas, where temperatures approach or exceed its previously accepted incipient upper thermal limit of 30 °C, raising the question of how such temperatures impact its population dynamics. Over 3-5 years, monthly collections of mussels, sampling for planktonic mussel veligers, juvenile settlement data, and water quality parameters, were undertaken at Texas lakes Texoma, Ray Roberts, and Belton to estimate mussel shell length growth rates, life spans, reproductive periods, and settlement patterns. Biannual spawning periods occurred at water temperatures of 18 to 28 °C, resulting in distinct spring and fall juvenile settlement cohorts. Growth rates were rapid, with both cohorts attaining mean maximum shell lengths of 20-25 mm within 8-15 months of settlement, compared to European and northeastern US populations that attained similar sizes after 2-4 years. Shortened life spans were demarcated by adult mussel die-offs during summer months of elevated water temperature the year after initial settlement, leading to short-term cyclical fluctuations in population densities. Large-scale mussel die-offs were caused by flooding and hypoxia events. Elevated temperatures appeared to facilitate mussel invasiveness by increasing spawning frequency and elevating growth rates, thus reducing time to maturity and allowing population recovery within 1-2 years after environmentally induced severe population declines.

Electrically tunable collective motion of dissipative solitons in chiral nematic films

From the motion of fish and birds, to migrating herds of ungulates, collective motion has attracted people for centuries. Active soft matter exhibits a plethora of emergent dynamic behaviors that mimic those of biological systems. Here we introduce an active system composed of dynamic dissipative solitons, i.e. directrons, which mimics the collective motion of living systems. Although the directrons are inanimate, artificial particle-like solitonic field configurations, they locally align their motions like their biological counterparts. Driven by external electric fields, hundreds of directrons are generated in a chiral nematic film. They start with random motions but self-organize into flocks and synchronize their motions. The directron flocks exhibit rich dynamic behaviors and induce population density fluctuations far larger than those in thermal equilibrium systems. They exhibit “turbulent” swimming patterns manifested by transient vortices and jets. They even distinguish topological defects, heading towards defects of positive topological strength and avoiding negative ones.

Fitness, risk taking, and spatial behavior covary with boldness in experimental vole populations.

Individuals of a population may vary along a pace‐of‐life syndrome from highly fecund, short‐lived, bold, dispersive “fast” types at one end of the spectrum to less fecund, long‐lived, shy, plastic “slow” types at the other end. Risk‐taking behavior might mediate the underlying life history trade‐off, but empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis is still ambiguous. Using experimentally created populations of common voles (Microtus arvalis)—a species with distinct seasonal life history trajectories—we aimed to test whether individual differences in boldness behavior covary with risk taking, space use, and fitness. We quantified risk taking, space use (via automated tracking), survival, and reproductive success (via genetic parentage analysis) in 8 to 14 experimental, mixed‐sex populations of 113 common voles of known boldness type in large grassland enclosures over a significant part of their adult life span and two reproductive events. Populations were assorted to contain extreme boldness types (bold or shy) of both sexes. Bolder individuals took more risks than shyer ones, which did not affect survival. Bolder males but not females produced more offspring than shy conspecifics. Daily home range and core area sizes, based on 95% and 50% Kernel density estimates (20 ± 10 per individual, n = 54 individuals), were highly repeatable over time. Individual space use unfolded differently for sex‐boldness type combinations over the course of the experiment. While day ranges decreased for shy females, they increased for bold females and all males. Space use trajectories may, hence, indicate differences in coping styles when confronted with a novel social and physical environment. Thus, interindividual differences in boldness predict risk taking under near‐natural conditions and have consequences for fitness in males, which have a higher reproductive potential than females. Given extreme inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuations in population density in the study species and its short life span, density‐dependent fluctuating selection operating differently on the sexes might maintain (co)variation in boldness, risk taking, and pace‐of‐life.

The Mesolithic of Atlantic Coastal Spain – a comparison with the Middle Ebro Basin

This paper compares current evidence for Mesolithic adaptations along the north Spanish coast from Galicia in the west to the Basque Country in the east. Significant questions and issues pertinent to Mesolithic research are reviewed, followed by a brief discussion of advances in method and theory over the past 25 years. Cantabria, País Vasco, and Galicia are compared with each other and en bloc with evidence from the middle Ebro over the 12-6 ka BP interval considered to bracket the transition between foraging and domestication economies. Marked differences in the time-space grid, geology, and the resolution of the data hinder these comparisons. A radiocarbon database totaling 610 dates is compiled, cleaned, filtered and analyzed for each region individually using summed calibrated date probability distribution (SPD) curves as a proxy for population density fluctuations over time. Regional curves are then compared with each other and with a global model.

Stochasticity in host-parasitoid models informs mechanisms regulating population dynamics

Population dynamics of host-parasitoid interactions have been traditionally studied using a discrete-time formalism starting from the classical work of Nicholson and Bailey. It is well known that differences in parasitism risk among individual hosts can stabilize the otherwise unstable equilibrium of the Nicholson-Bailey model. Here, we consider a stochastic formulation of these discrete-time models, where the host reproduction is a random variable that varies from year to year and drives fluctuations in population densities. Interestingly, our analysis reveals that there exists an optimal level of heterogeneity in parasitism risk that minimizes the extent of fluctuations in the host population density. Intuitively, low variation in parasitism risk drives large fluctuations in the host population density as the system is on the edge of stability. In contrast, high variation in parasitism risk makes the host equilibrium sensitive to the host reproduction rate, also leading to large fluctuations in the population density. Further results show that the correlation between the adult host and parasitoid densities is high for the same year, and gradually decays to zero as one considers cross-species correlations across different years. We next consider an alternative mechanism of stabilizing host-parasitoid population dynamics based on a Type III functional response, where the parasitoid attack rate accelerates with increasing host density. Intriguingly, this nonlinear functional response makes qualitatively different correlation signatures than those seen with heterogeneity in parasitism risk. In particular, a Type III functional response leads to uncorrelated adult and parasitoid densities in the same year, but high cross-species correlation across successive years. In summary, these results argue that the cross-correlation function between population densities contains signatures for uncovering mechanisms that stabilize consumer-resource population dynamics.

Small Mammals in Forests of Romania: Habitat Type Use and Additive Diversity Partitioning

Small mammals are key components of forest ecosystems, playing vital roles for numerous groups of forest organisms: they exert bottom-up and top-down regulatory effects on vertebrate and invertebrate populations, respectively; they are fungus- and seed-dispersers and bioturbators. Therefore, preserving or restoring the diversity of small mammal communities may help maintain the functions of these ecosystems. In Romania, a country with low-intensity forest management and a high percentage of natural forests compared to other European countries, an overview of forest small mammal diversity and habitat type use is lacking, and our study aimed to fill this gap. We also aimed to partition the total small mammal diversity of Romanian forests into the alpha (plot-level), beta, and delta (among forest types) diversities, as well as further partition beta diversity into its spatial (among plots) and temporal (among years) components. We surveyed small mammals by live trapping in eight types of forest across Romania. We found that small mammal abundance was significantly higher in lowland than in mountain forests, but species richness was similar, being associated with the diversity of tree canopy, with the highest values in mixed forests. In contrast, small mammal heterogeneity was related to overall habitat heterogeneity. As predicted, community composition was most distinct in poplar plantations, where forest specialists coexist with open habitat species. Most of the diversity was represented by alpha diversity. Because of strong fluctuations in population density of dominant rodents, the temporal component of beta heterogeneity was larger than the spatial component, but species richness also presented an important temporal turnover. Our results show the importance of the time dimension in the design of the surveys aiming at estimating the diversity of small mammal communities, both at the local and regional scales.

Stochastic dynamics of predator-prey interactions.

The interaction between a consumer (such as, a predator or a parasitoid) and a resource (such as, a prey or a host) forms an integral motif in ecological food webs, and has been modeled since the early 20th century starting from the seminal work of Lotka and Volterra. While the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model predicts a neutrally stable equilibrium with oscillating population densities, a density-dependent predator attack rate is known to stabilize the equilibrium. Here, we consider a stochastic formulation of the Lotka-Volterra model where the prey’s reproduction rate is a random process, and the predator’s attack rate depends on both the prey and predator population densities. Analysis shows that increasing the sensitivity of the attack rate to the prey density attenuates the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations in the population densities. In contrast, these fluctuations vary non-monotonically with the sensitivity of the attack rate to the predator density with an optimal level of sensitivity minimizing the magnitude of fluctuations. Interestingly, our systematic study of the predator-prey correlations reveals distinct signatures depending on the form of the density-dependent attack rate. In summary, stochastic dynamics of nonlinear Lotka-Volterra models can be harnessed to infer density-dependent mechanisms regulating predator-prey interactions. Moreover, these mechanisms can have contrasting consequences on population density fluctuations, with predator-dependent attack rates amplifying stochasticity, while prey-dependent attack rates countering to buffer fluctuations.

Lack of detectable genetic isolation in the cyclic rodent Microtus arvalis despite large landscape fragmentation owing to transportation infrastructures

Although roads are widely seen as dispersal barriers, their genetic consequences for animals that experience large fluctuations in population density are poorly documented. We developed a spatially paired experimental design to assess the genetic impacts of roads on cyclic voles (Microtus arvalis) during a high-density phase in North-Western Spain. We compared genetic patterns from 15 paired plots bisected by three different barrier types, using linear mixed models and computing effect sizes to assess the importance of each type, and the influence of road features like width or the age of the infrastructure. Evidence of effects by roads on genetic diversity and differentiation were lacking. We speculate that the recurrent (each 3–5 generations) episodes of massive dispersal associated with population density peaks can homogenize populations and mitigate the possible genetic impact of landscape fragmentation by roads. This study highlights the importance of developing spatially replicated experimental designs that allow us to consider the large natural spatial variation in genetic parameters. More generally, these results contribute to our understanding of the not well explored effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal in species showing “boom-bust” dynamics.