Energy Price Fluctuations Research Articles

Research on Changes in International Energy Trade Pattern under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on world energy markets has received great attention. Some researchers have found that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused an energy crisis to a certain extent. However, there is a lack of overview of the changes in the trade pattern and the scope of its impact. Therefore, through a comprehensive analysis of changes in policies and economic data, this study analyzes the different response measures taken by countries in different regions such as Europe and Asia to deal with the reduction in Russia's exports of major energy products and the fluctuations in international energy prices. This study also analyzes how the mutual sanctions between Russia and Western countries have contributed to the shift of Russia's energy export focus to the Asia-Pacific region and the diversification of Western countries' energy supply. Research results show that energy trade is at risk of being affected by geopolitical factors such as regional conflicts and mutual sanctions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has strengthened the attention of countries on energy security issues. The research also highlights the implications for future policies and actions, providing an understanding of emerging trends in the future. Economically, this study, based on past data, emphasizes the inevitability of the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting energy fluctuations and affirms that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is conducive to global new energy transformation and sustainable development in the long term.

Modeling and Analyzing Carbon Emission Market Volatility and Impact: Evidence from Guangdong Province, China

This research investigates the volatility of carbon prices in Guangdong’s emission trading market, a critical element of China’s broader climate strategy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable development. This study applies ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the complex interactions between carbon price fluctuations and various economic factors, including energy prices and environmental regulations. By decomposing the data, we identify key trends and cycles within the market, providing a clearer understanding of both short-term volatility and long-term market trends. Our findings reveal that regulatory policies play a pivotal role in shaping carbon market dynamics, with shifts in regulations leading to significant price volatility. Additionally, fluctuations in global energy prices, especially oil and coal, are found to have a considerable impact on carbon price movements, further complicating the market’s stability. This underscores the interconnected nature of the carbon trading market with broader economic and environmental factors, both domestic and international. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and market participants, underscoring the importance of stable carbon markets for promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy and achieving broader sustainability goals.

The Economic Efficiency of Micro Biogas Plants: A Sustainable Energy Solution in Slovenia—Case Study

This paper presents a simulation model for determining the most suitable type of microbiogas plant for small local communities on Slovenian farms, focusing on the efficient processing of organic waste. This model uses various input parameters, including different types and quantities of slurry and corn silage. Four different scenarios were developed to represent potential plant sizes, each evaluated using key economic indicators: net present value, breakthrough price, and internal rate of return. A scenario sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effects of changes in investment costs, fluctuations in energy prices, and the addition of corn silage to the anaerobic digestion process. The results highlight significant differences in economic viability across the scenarios, with some demonstrating positive financial outcomes and shorter payback periods and others indicating potential financial risks and longer recovery times under certain conditions. The analysis suggests that smaller micro biogas plants may struggle to achieve profitability without optimizing input ratios or reducing costs, whereas larger plants show more favorable economic indicators, provided certain conditions are met. Furthermore, the economic efficiency improves when adding maize silage to the fermentor mixture.

Thermo-economic analysis of a solar district heating plant with an air-to-water heat pump

Solar district heating systems are essential in reducing carbon emissions and alleviating the energy crisis. By integrating with air-to-water heat pumps, it is possible to enhance the system’s efficiency and flexibility. However, the complementary mechanisms and coupling effects between the heat pump and the other components of the system are not clear. To address these issues, it is necessary to investigate the thermo-economic performance of the system, taking into account energy price fluctuations to achieve a more efficient and economically viable operational model. This study focuses on a solar district heating system in the Danish city of Ørum and investigates the impact of integrating a large-scale air-to-water heat pump. Based on energy and economic analyses, the impact of the heat pump on the system efficiency and the levelized cost of heat are investigated for 2020 and 2022. The results show that the heat pump can convert low-cost electricity into heat which will be stored in the tank, increasing the tank’s heat storage content by 1.2 times. The medium to low-temperature water in the tank can preheat the heat pump’s compressor, raising the COP of the heat pump from 3.3 to 3.5 and increasing the annual utilization cycle of the tank by 1.4 times by reducing the return water temperature to the bottom of the tank. Additionally, the system performance has been improved due to the installation of the heat pump, which increased the system COP from 1.22 in 2020 to 2.62 in 2022. Subsequently, the CO2 emission has been decreased from 192 kg/MWh to 74 kg/MWh with a larger share of sustainable energy. Due to the heat pump operation, the system-levelized cost of heat could be reduced to 68.6 EUR/MWh, compared to 94 EUR/MWh if the heat pump is removed. The investigation also revealed that the heat pump improved the flexibility of the heating system in response to energy prices, especially during the 2022 energy crisis in Europe. The findings of the paper provide a good reference for large solar heating applications.

Sustainable soil management practices provide additional benefit for energy use efficiency

In light of recent fluctuations in energy prices, there has been a growing emphasis on energy efficiency within the agricultural sector. At the same time, ongoing soil degradation in intensive agricultural systems reinforced the need for soil health improving agricultural practices. This study combines the two aspects and examines the effects of sustainable soil management practices on total energy consumption, specifically focusing on fertilizer and pesticide energies, as well as economic indicators such as contribution margins. Using Germany as a case study, we assess three general soil improving management practices: diversified crop rotations, organic fertilizers (green or liquid manure) instead of mineral fertilizers, and no-till/reduced till systems instead of ploughing. Drawing on data from the Kuratorium für Technik und Bauwesen in der Landwirtschaft e.V. (KTBL) (Board of Trustees for Technology and Construction in Agriculture) database for German agricultural planning, we consider variations in yield potentials, soil types, and farming systems. Our results reveal that using mineral fertilizers and shifting to more diverse crop rotations can reduce energy consumption by approximately 21,000 MJ/ha on average (7 % of total energy) over a 6-year rotation. Likewise, adopting no-till systems instead of ploughing decreases energy use by 12,000 MJ/ha (5 % of total energy). Economically, organic farming offers a €4000/ha higher contribution margin compared to conventional methods in fertilization and tillage. These sustainable practices improve soil health, conserve energy, and enhance economic viability. With fluctuating energy prices, organic farming could become more economically attractive and accelerate its adoption across agricultural landscapes.

Examination of the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy in Turkish Legislation

Population growth, industrialization and technological advances increase the demand for energy. Due to problems such as global warming, environmental pollution and destruction, the trend towards alternative energy sources continues on a global scale. For this reason, the use of nuclear energy, one of the secondary energy sources, has tended to increase in recent years. Reasons such as the geographically uneven geographical distribution of resources that are raw materials for energy among countries and their exhaustibility, fluctuations in energy prices and the economical production of nuclear energy are among the reasons why countries in the world turn to nuclear energy. A number of accidents at nuclear power plants have had a negative impact on the perception of nuclear power plants, but for different reasons, nuclear energy is gaining popularity again. Nuclear power plants are the first thing that comes to mind when it comes to nuclear power, but it is also used effectively in medical treatments and applications of various branches of science as well as energy production. In global energy production; the fact that it aims to reduce carbon emissions by providing more energy production within the scope of sustainability, the continuous and uninterrupted continuation of electricity production using nuclear, the production of electricity at more affordable costs in nuclear power plants compared to other power plants (thermal, renewable, etc.), the fact that greenhouse gas emissions are almost negligible, and the use of nuclear technology in many fields such as physics, medicine, transportation, agriculture as well as energy production have made nuclear energy back on the agenda of countries in recent years. In nuclear energy, nuclear waste and their storage processes continue to be discussed as a problem in this process. For these reasons, the possibility of peaceful use of nuclear power has been questioned in academic platforms and various criteria have been determined This article examines Turkey's compliance with the criteria for the peaceful use of nuclear energy and clarifies the development process in this regard. Turkey's legislation on nuclear energy, international conventions, nuclear safety, radiation control criteria and compliance with national legislation will be examined.

Signs of Fluctuations in Energy Prices and Energy Stock-Market Volatility in Brazil and in the US

Signs of Fluctuations in Energy Prices and Energy Stock-Market Volatility in Brazil and in the US

What Is Sustainability? A Reflection From the Perspective of Biodiversity Informatics

In recent years, the word sustainability has been used in multiple domains ranging from finance to packaging, and the list of products and activities claiming to be sustainable grows day after day. However, a general and unambiguous definition of the term sustainability is not available and might not even be advisable because sustainability is a multifaceted concept that takes its meaning from the context of use and cannot provide a set of rules applicable everywhere (Ramsey 2015). Therefore, it remains a task for all the fields that strive to be sustainable to carve out a working definition that suits their needs. Addressing the meaning of sustainability in biodiversity informatics requires paying special attention to the data practices and infrastructures of this discipline. Over time, there has been a steep increase in the amount of biodiversity data created and shared and, at the same time, a rapid proliferation of use cases for biodiversity data. For instance, fields as different as spacial planning (Underwood et al. 2018), climate change research (Hirsch 2017), and finance (Elliot et al. 2024) rely now on biodiversity data. This growth can become unmanageable for biodiversity science, if its data practices and infrastructures do not scale up efficiently and are not sufficiently flexible to cater to the needs of a larger and more varied group of stakeholders. Biodiversity informatics has mainly addressed the financial sustainability of its infrastructures so far (Cook and Cochrane 2023; Kalfatovic et al. 2023). However, environmental and social sustainability are equally important to ensure that biodiversity science achieves its full potential. For instance, data infrastructures with lower environmental impact typically require less electricity to run continuously, and this will save money in the long run, especially at times of significant fluctuations in energy prices. Again, if biodiversity data are collected and shared while keeping in mind the necessities of multiple stakeholders, the user community will become larger and this, in turn, will offer the chance to develop fairer cost contribution agreements for running data infrastructures. More examples could be added to make the case that the three pillars of sustainability—economy, society, environment (Purvis et al. 2018)—are all equally relevant when examining data practices and infrastructures in biodiversity science. Hence, there is a need to open up a discussion on sustainability within the biodiversity community, and to promote an exchange on the topic among different stakeholders interested in biodiversity data and working with them. A community effort is required to agree upon an effective definition of sustainability in biodiversity informatics. Only such a community effort can translate this definition into practical criteria and recommendations for the sustainability of biodiversity data and infrastructures, and set milestones for their implementation. The Society for the Preservation of Natural History Collections and Biodiversity Information Standards (TDWG) are authoritative members of the biodiversity community. The aim of the talk is to involve their members in the discussion on data practices and infrastructures, addressing all the three pillars of sustainability: economy, society, and environment.

A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model to enhance energy security: the case of Morocco

Energy security has become increasingly important because of its impact on all sectors of the economy, and even more because of the scarcity of primary energy resources and price fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions. This has prompted all countries to assess their energy situation and take strategic measures to mitigate energy risks. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to identify the dimensions of energy security with the greatest impact on Morocco's energy security, as well as the priority strategic measures for mitigating energy risk. To this end, we consider the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method, which is a multiple criteria decision analysis method, which has been used to obtain results based on a structured evaluation process. The obtained results, following the considered comparison matrix, underscore that availability and resilience dimensions have the greatest impact on the Moroccan energy security, with respective weights of 48% and 28%. Besides, mitigating energy risk in Morocco primarily involves the development of renewable energies compared with seven other proposed measures, along with their degree of priority.

Energy Price Fluctuation and Real Estate Market Risk Prevention—Empirical Evidence at the Prefecture-Level City Level in China

Abstract The impact of energy price fluctuation on the macro economy is a hot issue that is continuously concerned by the academic community, but few literature have paid attention to the impact of energy price fluctuation on housing price and the financial risks that may arise. Based on the data of cities at and above the prefecture level in China, this paper empirically examines the impact of energy price fluctuation on the price fluctuation of the domestic real estate, and analyzes its influencing mechanism and transmission pathways. The results show that changes of energy price will significantly affect the fluctuation of domestic real estate price, and it is more obvious in large cities and megacities. Energy price affect the demand for housing through changes of interest rate levels on the one hand, and the supply of the real estate market through the cost of housing construction on the other hand, which leads to housing price fluctuation. After a series of robustness tests, the results are still valid. At the same time, the effect is asymmetric, that is, higher energy price increases the fluctuation of house price, but the impact of falling energy price is not significant. Therefore, when preventing real estate market risks, energy price should be considered as a forward-looking indicator to focus on, and the regulation and control policies of the real estate market should be scientifically formulated. This paper not only provides a new perspective on the mechanism of housing price formation, but also enriches the research on the interconnection between energy and financial markets.

Towards sustainable regional energy solutions: An optimized operational model for integrated energy systems with price-responsive planning

With dynamic changes in the energy market and continuous advances in smart energy technology, regional integrated energy systems (RIESs) have emerged as a vital direction in the evolution of energy systems. They are increasingly gaining significance in the realm of energy supply (ES) and demand response initiatives. In this context, this article introduces a novel optimal operational model for an integrated energy system (IES) that incorporates energy price responsiveness. The paper commences by delivering a comprehensive overview of the typical structure of an IES, presenting detailed models for each system module, encompassing the electrical energy supplier, heating, and cooling components. The proposed system model comprises three distinct subsystems, each catering to specific energy requirements. The primary emphasis is on devising an efficient planning scheme tailored to the energy consumption patterns and operational aspects of the IES. Through the presented model, there is substantial potential for significantly reducing the overall system cost without inducing a noteworthy upsurge in environmental pollution. Moreover, the energy efficiency of the system can experience considerable enhancement. The desired optimization problem has been solved using the proposed multi-objective Horse Herd Optimization Algorithm (MOHHOA). Additionally, in this strategy, Pareto front and fuzzy selection are employed to make better decisions among all Pareto solutions. The optimization strategy devised in this research not only enables the integrated operation of the IES but also ensures its compatibility with ongoing energy development initiatives. The proposed method yields a diverse set of Pareto solutions across the objective space, providing various trade-offs between economic, environmental, and reliability considerations. Utilizing MOHHOA, the algorithm efficiently balances exploration and exploitation during optimization, resulting in informed decision-making. In optimal planning, Scenario 2 exhibits lower operational costs (8.2 % reduction) and a dramatic improvement in LESP (1.24 %–1.176 %) compared to Scenario 1. Sensitivity analysis reveals an 11.2 % increase in environmental costs in Scenario 1 with a 36 % rise in electricity prices. Conversely, in Scenario 2, a 10 % reduction in natural gas prices leads to a 24.5 % increase in system running costs. These findings underscore the significance of considering energy price fluctuations for optimizing integrated energy system performance.

Balancing Possibilist-probabilistic risk assessment for smart energy hubs: Enabling secure peer-to-peer energy sharing with CCUS technology and cyber-security

This paper introduces the Possibilistic-Probabilistic Risk-based Smart Energy Hub (PPR-SEH) scheduling model, addressing cybersecurity challenges in the transition to advanced energy systems characterized by decarbonization, decentralization, and digitalization. The model integrates cutting-edge technologies like Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and demand response programs. It addresses uncertainties from renewable energy sources, demand variability, fuel supply, and energy price fluctuations using a Z-number-based approach. Covering various energy types—electricity, heat, cooling, gas, and water—the PPR-SEH model offers a comprehensive energy management solution. Employing a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework optimized with the CPLEX solver in GAMS software, it uses an epsilon constraint method and a fuzzy satisfying approach for solution selection. The model also evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of peer-to-peer energy-sharing markets linked with carbon emission trading, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of energy distribution. The findings reveal that incorporating robust cybersecurity measures and integrating demand response and CCUS significantly influence operational efficiency and sustainability, evidenced by an increase in costs and pollution by approximately 11.43 % and 1.8 %, respectively, compared to deterministic approaches. This study underscores the importance of robust planning and the beneficial impact of a carbon system on load curve management and economic returns in smart energy systems.

Exploring optimal market operations and grid effects in an office building energy community: A case study

In this paper, we study optimal market operations and grid effects of office building from an energy community perspective. Commercial buildings such as offices can include many stakeholders and new flexible assets that can offer suitable use cases to form energy communities or enter energy and reserve markets. The office building we focus in this study has a real-world counterpart with historical measurement data and involves three stakeholders and their assets. The stakeholders are the owner, the tenant, and the operator of flexible assets. These assets are the battery energy storage system (BESS) and the electric vehicles (EV) charging system (EVCS) that both can operate in response to energy price fluctuations and in a reserve market. Different cases are studied where either the owner or the tenant is paying the EV charging, and where the flexibility of the EV charging is either active or not. We show that, when the owner pays for the energy of the EVCS and the tenant is using it, there is a beneficial case to form a coalition between them and share the benefits. Operative cost-benefit calculations are conducted where the community benefits are shared according to the Shapley value and the power flows at the building’s connection point are simulated based on the market operations. The sensitivity of the flexibility and the maximum power of EVCS to the results are studied. Harnessing benefits from the markets shows significant effects on the power flows at the connection point.

A Systematic Literature Review (SLR): Impact of The Russian – Ukraine Conflict

This study analyzes the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Indonesian economy, with a focus on the SME sector. Through in-depth literature analysis, the research highlights the challenges faced by SMEs in dealing with disruptions in international supply chains, dependence on imports from Russia and Ukraine, and energy price fluctuations. The impact is evident through additional pressures on SMEs involved in international trade, both in terms of disrupted flow of goods and services and currency fluctuations. To address these challenges, SMEs need to adopt business strategies focusing on sustainability, supply chain risk management, and energy efficiency to minimize the negative effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and remain competitive in domestic and international markets.

Energy Performance in Residential Buildings as a Property Market Efficiency Driver

Energy consumption plays an important role in contemporary economies. Its significance extends beyond utilitarian value, impacting economic robustness, environmental protection, and residents’ well-being. The escalating global energy requisites necessitate efficient energy utilization and a shift towards renewable sources to address climate change and strengthen energy independence. Developing accurate predictive models to forecast long-term energy costs and savings remains a complex problem. This paper aims to provide a methodology to identify the influence of building energy performance on real estate market efficiency, focusing on property maintenance costs. Real estate plays a crucial role in human life, serving both as a fundamental need and as a vehicle for achieving personal aspirations and secure financial investments, particularly during times of economic and social instability. Through interdisciplinary methodological architecture, this study addresses three key issues: the impact of rising energy costs on market efficiency, the responsiveness of the real estate market to energy price fluctuations, and the significance of property maintenance costs on market value. The research approach includes creating and applying AI algorithms capable of evaluating extensive datasets pertaining to real estate features. Utilizing machine learning methods, the algorithm determines the importance of energy efficiency measures as well as various other inherent and external attributes of properties. The suggested methodology provides a novel approach to improve the effectiveness of market efficiency analysis.

Current and future development of thermal grids in Switzerland: an organizational perspective

IntroductionThermal grids are key to decarbonizing heating and cooling. However, their development is a complex socio-technical process. This study aims to (1) understand the thermal grid ecosystem’s development under changing political, economic and cultural frame conditions, (2) elicit actors’ perception of options for future development, and (3) identify concrete problem situations for the future development of thermal grids and describe how to address them.MethodsWe draw on 18 semi-structured interviews with decision-makers in utilities, municipal administrations, planning and engineering companies and intermediary organizations.ResultsWith increased strategic importance of thermal grids, the ecosystem has been in a phase of rapid growth and professionalization in the last 10–15 years. This is reflected in a rapid increase in the number of grids, but also in capability and capacity building and greater quality standards. This transformation has been supported by a resource pool (e.g., knowledge base, capacities and capabilities, networks or decision-support tools), built partly through the value network’s activities and partly through purposeful orchestration by associations, authorities, utilities and other actors. While policy developments, energy price fluctuations and changes in customer perceptions spurred demand, thermal grid development is limited by supply-side constraints, especially a skill shortage. Four interrelated problem situations were identified: (1) Municipalities lack the resources to manage the implementation of their energy strategies. (2) The modernization of thermal grids and integration of low-carbon heat sources entails high transaction costs. (3) The implementation of thermal grids is subject to delays and quality risks, with consequences for the timely achievement of decarbonization goals. (4) Customers face uncertainty on available options, as well as on the systemic impacts of their decisions.DiscussionBased on current practices, suggestions by the interviewees, as well as a comparison with the international literature, we identify four development areas to address these problem situations: (1) Empower and support municipalities. (2) Manage the scarcity of qualified workforce. (3) Leverage digital technology for the planning, realization and operation of thermal grids. (4) Pilot technological and organizational innovations together. This complements the set of previously suggested measures to support the development of thermal grids, which focused strongly on technical and regulatory aspects.

Identifying price bubbles in global carbon markets: Evidence from the SADF test, GSADF test and LPPLS method

Amid growing climate concerns, Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) serve as key mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through market forces. This study delves into the phenomenon of price bubbles within six major ETSs globally: the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), the California-Québec Emissions Trading Scheme (CQ ETS), the South Korea Emissions Trading Schemes (K-ETS), the China Emissions Trading Scheme (C-ETS), and the United Kingdom Emissions Trading Schemes (UK ETS). Employing the sup augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) test, generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test, and log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model, our analysis aims to uncover the dynamics and implications of these bubbles. Our findings reveal varied patterns of price bubbles across the schemes, with the EU ETS showing the highest frequency and the NZ ETS exhibiting the longest durations. The period of 2021 and 2022 marked a significant increase in bubble occurrences across all ETSs, suggesting the influence of post-COVID-19 economic recovery and geopolitical tensions on market stability. These bubbles are attributed to factors including carbon market policies, macroeconomic conditions, energy price fluctuations, and market uncertainties. The study offers valuable insights for compliance firms, policymakers, and investors on navigating carbon market volatility. Understanding bubble dynamics can aid in formulating more effective emission reduction strategies, carbon pricing policies, and investment decisions. This research underscores the importance of integrating monetary policy considerations with environmental objectives within ETS frameworks, paving the way for future research on predictive bubble detection and the development of robust carbon market regulations.

Examining the dynamic conditional correlation between oil prices and stock prices: Implications for global financial markets and the impact of COVID-19

The dynamic structure of the global economy is one of many factors that affect the fluctuations in the global financial markets. COVID-19, like all other epidemics, has been an important period in human history. Exporting and importing oil are also important distinctions in economies. This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between stock market closing prices and Brent oil prices of six major oil-importing and oil-exporting economies during the COVID-19 period. These stock markets have a significant impact on the world economy and serve as reference points for evaluating industry performance. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) method are used to model the complex interactions of the energy market and markets. It aims to reveal the relationship between fluctuations in energy prices and other macroeconomic indicators. According to the findings, it is concluded that fluctuations in oil prices have a non-negligible impact on stock markets due to the persistence of ARCH effects and volatility in each financial market. Assuming that volatility continues, it is seen that volatility continues to have an impact on the markets examined.

Cost-benefit analysis of a hydro-solar microsystem with Archimedean screw hydro turbine sized for a prosumer building

This work aims to identify a cost-effective solution for improving the energy performance of a grid-connected prosumer, possibly equipped with electric vehicle chargers. The solution is based on a small-scale energy system based on renewable energy sources (RES). The system is equipped with an Archimedes Screw Turbine (AST) and photovoltaic panels. Energy storage in batteries is also considered. A simple yet efficient method for sizing the AST is proposed. A cost-benefit analysis of the small-scale energy system is performed for six case studies covering different combinations of energy consumers. Three economic scenarios are considered for each case study. The results suggest that the AST-based solution leads to reasonable costs for the prosumer and less impact of energy price fluctuations. Also, if EV chargers are used, their consumption can be covered directly by RES.

Energy price shocks and stock market volatility in an energy-importing country

We examine volatility dynamics in the Korean market using heterogeneous autoregressive models with exogenous covariates. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine War have caused substantial fluctuations in energy prices. We assess how these energy shocks affect stock market-implied volatility in Korea, a representative energy-importing country. During the pre-pandemic period, domestic and U.S. market factors affect Korea's volatility dynamics, whereas crude oil and natural gas futures prices have little explanatory power for these dynamics. In contrast, during the pandemic (war), oil (natural gas) futures prices become the key explanatory variable, and other market factors lose their explanatory power.