Balancing Possibilist-probabilistic risk assessment for smart energy hubs: Enabling secure peer-to-peer energy sharing with CCUS technology and cyber-security

Abstract

This paper introduces the Possibilistic-Probabilistic Risk-based Smart Energy Hub (PPR-SEH) scheduling model, addressing cybersecurity challenges in the transition to advanced energy systems characterized by decarbonization, decentralization, and digitalization. The model integrates cutting-edge technologies like Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and demand response programs. It addresses uncertainties from renewable energy sources, demand variability, fuel supply, and energy price fluctuations using a Z-number-based approach. Covering various energy types—electricity, heat, cooling, gas, and water—the PPR-SEH model offers a comprehensive energy management solution. Employing a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework optimized with the CPLEX solver in GAMS software, it uses an epsilon constraint method and a fuzzy satisfying approach for solution selection. The model also evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of peer-to-peer energy-sharing markets linked with carbon emission trading, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of energy distribution. The findings reveal that incorporating robust cybersecurity measures and integrating demand response and CCUS significantly influence operational efficiency and sustainability, evidenced by an increase in costs and pollution by approximately 11.43 % and 1.8 %, respectively, compared to deterministic approaches. This study underscores the importance of robust planning and the beneficial impact of a carbon system on load curve management and economic returns in smart energy systems.