Employment Fluctuations Research Articles

Interaction between alcohol intake and employment status changes on mortality among young workers

Abstract Background To investigate the impact of changes in employment status and their interaction with alcohol consumption on health outcomes among young workers. This study aims to explore how employment fluctuations, periodic unemployment, and economic activity levels influence the health of economically active individuals, focusing particularly on the synergistic effects that these employment changes may have when combined with alcohol consumption. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. The study included individuals aged 25-44 years who underwent health check-ups between 2009 and 2010. We categorized changes in employment status into three groups: continuously employed, economically active with employment fluctuations, and periodically unemployed. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to assess the impact of changes in employment status on the risk of all-cause mortality. The relative excess risk due to interaction, a widely accepted indicator of additive interaction, was used to assess the interaction between alcohol consumption and changes in employment status. Results Changes in employment status significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality in both men and women in the economically active with employment fluctuations and periodically unemployed groups compared with the continuously employed group. The synergistic effect of alcohol consumption and changes in employment status on the risk of all-cause mortality was significant only among men. Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that changes in employment status, particularly when combined with alcohol consumption, significantly affect all-cause mortality among young workers. Key messages • Employment status fluctuations combined with alcohol consumption significantly increase all-cause mortality risks among young workers, especially men. • This study emphasizes the urgent need for targeted interventions that address the combined impact of employment and lifestyle factors on public health.

Does transport infrastructure development inhibit firm-level employment fluctuations? Evidence from national expressway construction in China

Employment Stabilization has always been a key focus of the Chinese government's work. Exploring the influencing factors of employment stability is of great significance for promoting the realization of high-quality employment. Based on the manually collected national expressway data and the China Industrial Enterprise Database from 1998 to 2015, this paper conducts an empirical study on the impact of transportation infrastructure development on enterprise employment fluctuations using the multi-timepoint difference-in-differences method. We find that the development of expressways has a significant inhibitory effect on enterprise employment fluctuations. Compared with areas where expressways have not been opened, the opening of expressways reduces local enterprise employment fluctuations by approximately 0.9 %. The development of expressways affects the demand side or supply side of the enterprise labor force through market scale effects, labor allocation effects, etc., thereby influencing enterprise employment fluctuations. The impact of expressway development on employment fluctuations of enterprises with different ownership natures, different economic regions, and different scales varies to some extent. Finally, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations, providing practical and effective references for coordinating and promoting the goal of Employment Stabilization under the background of the strategy of building a strong transportation country.

Digital transformation of enterprises: Job creation or job destruction?

In recent years, the technological advancements embodied by digital technology have received significant attention from policymakers and researchers because of their profound impacts on the economy and society. In particular, the relationship between digital technology and employment continues to be a subject of considerable debate. This article focuses on the microperspective, and the causal effects and mechanisms of corporate digital transformation on labour employment are examined. With the use of data on Chinese A-share manufacturing companies from 2008– to 2019, text analysis is employed in this study to construct a comprehensive index of corporate digital transformation. We utilise a combination of fixed effects models, difference-in-differences (DiD) models, and instrumental variable methods and demonstrate that digital transformation stimulates enterprise labour demand, a conclusion that remains valid after multiple endogeneity tests and robustness assessments. The heterogeneous results indicate that nonstate-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), nonhigh-tech enterprises, enterprises with low financing constraints, and small enterprises exhibit greater employment creation effects through digital transformation. Mechanistic analysis suggests that digital transformation increases enterprise employment by increasing operational and management efficiency, profitability, and labour productivity levels. Further exploration reveals that digital transformation increases the demand for labour with varying skills and human capital upgrading in enterprises. This article, through the lens of digital technology, enriches the body of research on the nexus between technological progress and employment, provides novel insights into employment fluctuations under the digital paradigm, and outlines significant implications for countries balancing digital economy development, employment growth, and social stability.

Business cycles in Colombia: stylized facts

The purpose of this article is to examine the economic cycles in Colombia and to empirically corroborate the fulfillment of nine stylized facts documented in the specialized international literature. For this purpose, the retropolated series 1975-2013 and the series 2005:1-2022:4 of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) were analyzed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Thus, the occurrence of four economic cycles is recorded between 1975 and 2013 with an average duration of 9.3 years with an expansionary phase of 5.0 years and a contractionary phase of 5.3 years. Similarly, between 2005:1 and 2022:4 there were three cycles with an average duration of 21.7 quarters, with an expansionary phase of 14.7 quarters and a contractionary phase of 7.0 quarters. It should also be said that the cyclical fluctuations of employment and unemployment are closely related to effective demand and domestic demand in accordance with Keynesian theory; for example, the positive correlation between the real GDP cycle and the implicit GDP deflator cycle suggests that the cycles were not due to shifts in the aggregate production function as the dominant theory stresses, but to shifts in the aggregate demand function.

Corporate social responsibility and labor investment efficiency: evidence from China

PurposeWe expect to provide a complete theoretical framework and large sample evidence on the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the efficiency of labor investment. We also hope to provide micro-evidence based on labor investment behavior for the two-sided impact of corporate CSR behavior.Design/methodology/approachThis paper measures labor investment efficiency by estimating the difference between actual and expected net hiring of enterprises. CSR is measured on the basis of the CSR score of Chinese listed companies published by Hexun.com. A regression model is constructed to analyze the relationship between CSR and labor investment efficiency. Possible endogeneity problems are controlled by lagging independent variables, propensity score matching method and difference-in-difference method.FindingsResults show that CSR can improve labor investment efficiency by reducing over-hiring and under-hiring in emerging markets. The existence of the mediating effect of agency cost, information disclosure quality and employment fluctuation confirms that CSR improves labor investment efficiency through two mechanisms of corporate governance and labor market friction. The improvement effect of CSR on labor investment efficiency is more significant in non-state-owned, high CEO shareholding ratio and high-average urban wage enterprises.Originality/valueIn conclusion, our study is an important supplement to the existing research on the factors affecting labor investment efficiency. Our research conclusions will be helpful for enterprises in developing countries or enterprises in labor-intensive industries to improve labor investment inefficiency. The conclusion of the mechanism analysis in this paper provides more complete and reliable microscopic evidence for accurately identifying the specific path of CSR's impact on labor investment efficiency. This paper verifies the positive impact of CSR from the perspective of labor investment efficiency in the context of a developing country, which provides evidence for the theoretical conflicts related to CSR based on the effectiveness of enterprise labor investment decisions.

Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions

We estimate the effects of house price changes on young-firm employment shares and industry-level employment growth in local economies. A novel test shows that house price effects on local economies work through wealth, liquidity, and collateral effects on the propensity to start new firms and expand young ones. Aggregating local effects to the national level, our estimates imply that housing market ups and downs play a major role—as transmission channel and driving force—in medium-run fluctuations in young-firm employment shares in recent decades. We also find a distinct and smaller role for locally exogenous loan-supply shifts. (JEL D22, E24, E32, G21, L25, R11, R31)

How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?

In employment relationships, a wage is an installment payment on an implicit long-term agreement between a worker and a firm. The price of labor that impacts firm’s hiring decisions, instead, reflects the hiring wage as well as the impact of economic conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. Measured by the labor’s user cost, the price of labor is substantially more pro-cyclical than the new-hire wage or the average wage. The strong procyclicality of the price of labor calls for other forces for cyclical labor demand to explain employment fluctuations.

EVENT TOURISM AS CATALYST FOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN AZERBAIJAN

This paper explores the profound impact of event tourism on employment growth in Azerbaijan, a nation renowned for its rich cultural heritage and dynamic tourism sector. Event tourism, encompassing cultural, sporting, and business events, has emerged as a global driver of economic development. Azerbaijan, spurred by the success of hosting prestigious events like the Eurovision Song Contest and the European Games, has strategically invested in and promoted its event tourism sector. The study employs a robust methodology, combining statistical data, case studies, and interviews with key stakeholders, to analyze the direct and indirect employment effects of event tourism. Notably, this examination extends beyond immediate event periods, encompassing the ripple effects on sectors such as hospitality, travel, and infrastructure development. Azerbaijan's commitment to event tourism is rooted in historical successes, with the Eurovision Song Contest and the European Games serving as catalysts for increased investments and promotional efforts. The government's support, coupled with private sector participation, has shaped an environment conducive to hosting diverse events, leading to a surge in employment opportunities. The paper scrutinizes the sustainability of employment growth, assessing its alignment with Azerbaijan's broader economic goals. While acknowledging the sector's positive contributions, challenges like seasonal employment fluctuations and skill mismatches are considered. The findings highlight the significant role of event tourism in urban employment growth but also underscore the importance of addressing associated challenges. In conclusion, this research underscores the substantial contribution of event tourism to employment in Azerbaijan. The paper concludes with practical recommendations aimed at maximizing the employment potential of event tourism, ensuring long-term economic and social benefits. By navigating challenges and fostering strategic alignment, Azerbaijan can harness the transformative power of event tourism for sustained and inclusive employment growth. Keywords: Event Tourism, Employment Growth, Azerbaijan, Economic Development, Hospitality Industry, Infrastructure Development, Sustainable Employment.

Immigration and the distribution of income, consumption and wealth in the euro area: Implications for economic policies

We use representative data from household surveys in the euro area to describe differences in wages, income, consumption, wealth and liquid assets between households born in their country of residence (“natives”) and those born in other EU and non-EU countries (“immigrants”). The differences in wealth and liquid assets are more substantial than the differences in wages, income and consumption: immigrants earn on average about 30% lower wages than natives and hold roughly 60% less net wealth. For all variables, only a small fraction of differences between natives and immigrants—around 30%—can be explained by differences in demographics (age, gender, marital status, education, occupation, sector of employment). Immigrants are more likely to be liquidity constrained: while we classify 17% of natives as “hand-to-mouth” (they hold liquid assets worth less than two weeks of their income), the corresponding share is 20% for households born in another EU country and 29% for those born outside the EU. Employment rates of immigrants are substantially more sensitive to fluctuations in aggregate employment. We discuss the implications of these findings for economic policies, including monetary, fiscal and pre-distribution policies.

Industry Volatility and Employment Extreme Risk Transmission: Evidence from China

China’s socio-economic growth path aims to achieve full and sustainable employment, which requires an in-depth understanding of the linkages between employment and different industrial sectors within the economic system. The objective of this study is to examine the heterogeneous transmission effects of industry fluctuations on the distribution of employment, with special attention to the transmission effects of industry fluctuations on employment under extreme conditions. The research methodology of this paper is to systematically examine the risk spillover effects between industry sectors and employment distribution using the quantile risk spillover model. The results show that industry volatility significantly affects employment volatility in China. The impact of industry volatility is stronger under extreme conditions, both more adverse and favorable than that of under normative conditions. Among labor-intensive industries, the employment impact of skilled labor-intensive and integrated labor-intensive industries is relatively small compared to that of the relatively large impact of manual labor-intensive industries. The results suggest that traditional indicators of the spillover effect, such as the mean-based indicator, cannot accurately capture the source and real effect of risk transmission, leading to unemployment fluctuations, underscoring the need to focus on the heterogeneity of the distribution of employment fluctuations. The findings also present the evolution of the risk transmission structure of employment in China, which provides implications for policymaking on full and sustainable employment.

From Neglect to Progress: Assessing Social Sustainability and Decent Work in the Tourism Sector

Measuring social sustainability performance involves assessing firms’ implementation of social goals, including working conditions, health and safety, employee relationships, diversity, human rights, community engagement, and philanthropy. The concept of social sustainability is closely linked to the notion of decent work, which emphasizes productive work opportunities with fair income, secure workplaces, personal development prospects, freedom of expression and association, and equal treatment for both genders. However, the tourism sector, known for its significant share of informal labor-intensive work, faces challenges that hinder the achievement of decent work, such as extended working hours, low wages, limited social protection, and gender discrimination. This study assesses the social sustainability of the Portuguese tourism industry. The study collected data from the “Quadros do Pessoal” statistical tables for the years 2010 to 2020 to analyze the performance of Portuguese firms in the tourism sector and compare them with one another and with the overall national performance. The study focused on indicators such as employment, wages, and work accidents. The findings reveal fluctuations in employment and remuneration within the tourism sector and high growth rates in the tourism sector compared to the national average. A persistent gender pay gap is identified, which emphasizes the need to address this issue within the tourism industry. Despite some limitations, such as the lack of comparable data on work quality globally, incomplete coverage of sustainability issues, and challenges in defining and measuring social sustainability indicators, the findings have implications for policy interventions to enhance social sustainability in the tourism industry. By prioritizing decent work, safe working conditions, and equitable pay practices, stakeholders can promote social sustainability, stakeholder relationships, and sustainable competitive advantage. Policymakers are urged to support these principles to ensure the long-term sustainability of the tourism industry and foster a more inclusive and equitable society. This study provides insights for Tourism Management, sustainable Human Resource Management, Development Studies, and organizational research, guiding industry stakeholders in promoting corporate social sustainability, firm survival, and economic growth.

Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size

Abstract Uncertainty shocks are found to affect labour market outcomes adversely. Most studies interrelate non-convex labour adjustment costs with the propagation of macroeconomic uncertainty to the labour market. I show that non-convex labour adjustment costs differ by establishment size in Germany. Hence, uncertainty shocks should affect large and small establishments differently. Therefore, this article studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on employment adjustments in large and small establishments employing four structural vector auto-regressive models for Germany from 1992 to 2014. These four models estimate the effects of uncertainty shocks on employment, worker flows, job flows, as well as worker churn in establishments with fewer than 100 and with at least 100 employees. The results suggest that uncertainty shocks trigger considerable employment fluctuations in large establishments while they barely affect small establishments. Furthermore, large establishments adjust their labour input by delaying the replacement of workers.

Staggered wages, unanticipated shocks and firms’ adjustments

This paper empirically investigates the employment and wage effects of contract staggering, i.e., the asynchronous and infrequent way in which wages adjust to changes in the economic environment. Using an identification strategy based on exogenous start dates of collective agreements around the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of increases in base wages on firms’ labor cost adjustments. Our analysis is based on a large employers-employees dataset merged to collective agreements in the Netherlands, a country in which collective bargaining is dominant and contract staggering is relatively pervasive. The main result is that staggered wage setting has no real effect on employment. We find significant employment losses only in sectors covered by contracts with much longer durations than those normally assumed in macroeconomic models featuring staggered wages. Instead, we show that firms adjust labor costs by curbing other pay components such as bonuses and benefits and incidental pay. The overall result supports the idea that wage rigidities are not the main source of employment fluctuations.

History of Low Hourly Wage and All-Cause Mortality Among Middle-aged Workers

Earning a low wage is an increasingly recognized public health concern, yet little research exists on the long-term health consequences of sustained low-wage earning. To examine the association of sustained low-wage earning and mortality in a sample of workers with hourly wage reported biennially during peak midlife earning years. This longitudinal study included 4002 US participants, aged 50 years or older, from 2 subcohorts of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2018) who worked for pay and reported earning hourly wages at 3 or more time points during a 12-year period during their midlife (1992-2004 or 1998-2010). Outcome follow-up occurred from the end of the respective exposure periods until 2018. Low-wage-less than the hourly wage for full-time, full-year work at the federal poverty line-earning history was categorized as never earning a low wage, intermittently earning a low wage, and sustained earning a low wage. Cox proportional hazards and additive hazards regression models sequentially adjusted for sociodemographics, and economic and health covariates were used to estimate associations between low-wage history and all-cause mortality. We examined interaction with sex or employment stability on multiplicative and additive scales. Of the 4002 workers (aged 50-57 years at the beginning of exposure period and 61-69 years at the end), 1854 (46.3%) were female; 718 (17.9%) experienced employment instability; 366 (9.1%) had a history of sustained low-wage earning; 1288 (32.2%) had intermittent low-wage earning periods; and 2348 (58.7%) had never earned a low wage. In unadjusted analyses, those who had never earned low wages experienced 199 deaths per 10 000 person-years, those with intermittent low wages, 208 deaths per 10 000 person-years, and those with sustained low wages, 275 deaths per 10 000 person-years. In models adjusted for key sociodemographic variables, sustained low-wage earning was associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07-1.71) and excess deaths (66; 95% CI, 6.6-125); these findings were attenuated with additional adjustments for economic and health covariates. Significant excess death and elevated mortality risk were observed for workers with sustained low-wage exposure and employment fluctuations (eg, for sustained low-wage × employment fluctuated, HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.35-3.53; for sustained low-wage × stable employment, HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.89,-1.54; P for interaction = .003). Sustained low-wage earning may be associated with elevated mortality risk and excess deaths, especially when experienced alongside unstable employment. If causal, our findings suggest that social and economic policies that improve the financial standing of low-wage workers (eg, minimum wage laws) could improve mortality outcomes.

Financial markets and unemployment

We study the importance of financial markets for (un)employment fluctuations in a model with matching frictions where firms borrow under limited enforcement. Borrowing affects employment through a ‘debt bargaining channel’: higher debt improves the bargaining position of employers with workers and increases the incentive to hire. We estimate the model structurally and find that the debt bargaining channel accounts for 26 percent of unemployment fluctuations. We find empirical support for the channel at the micro level using firm level data from Compustat.

Racial Differences in Employment and Poverty Histories and Health in Older Age

Black Americans encounter more barriers in the job market and earn less than White Americans. However, the extent to which racial disparities in employment and poverty histories impact health is not fully understood. This study characterized employment‒poverty histories for Black and White middle-aged adults and examined their association with health. Respondents born in 1948-1953 and enrolled in the 2004 Health and Retirement Study (NBlack=555, NWhite=2,209) were included. Sequence analysis grouped respondents with similar employment‒poverty trajectories from 2004 to 2016, and confounder-adjusted regression analyses estimated the associations between these trajectories and health in 2018. Analyses were conducted in 2021-2022. More than 23% of Black respondents experienced both employment and poverty fluctuations, including bouts of extreme poverty (<50% of the federal poverty threshold), whereas no trajectory for White respondents included extreme poverty. Adversities in employment‒poverty were associated with worse health. For example, among Black respondents, those who experienced both employment and poverty fluctuations had worse cognition than those employed and not poor (β= -0.55 standardized units, 95% CI= -0.81, -0.30). Similarly, among White respondents, those who experienced employment fluctuations had worse cognition than those employed (β= -0.35, 95% CI= -0.46, -0.24). Notably, the employed and not poor trajectory was associated with worse survival among Black respondents than among White respondents. Employment fluctuations were associated with worse health, especially cognitive function, where the association was stronger among Black Americans who experienced both employment fluctuations and poverty. Findings highlight the importance of enhancing employment stability and of antipoverty programs, especially for Black Americans.

Economic Uncertainty's Impact on Aggregate Employment Fluctuations: Estimating the Importance of the Population's Age Distribution

Economic Uncertainty's Impact on Aggregate Employment Fluctuations: Estimating the Importance of the Population's Age Distribution

The Real Effects of Judicial Enforcement

This article shows that judicial enforcement has substantial effects on firms’ decisions with regard to their employment policies. To establish causality, I exploit a reorganization of the court districts in Italy involving judicial district mergers as a shock to court productivity. I find that an improvement in enforcement, as measured by a reduction in average trial length, has a large, positive effect on firm employment. The cross-sectional heterogeneity of the results suggests that stronger enforcement reduces financing constraints, boosting employment as a result, especially in firms characterized by higher complementarity between labor and capital. Moreover, in the presence of stronger enforcement, firms can raise more debt to dampen the impact of negative shocks and, in this way, reduce employment fluctuations. Consistent with this result, worker-level evidence shows that strong enforcement reduces the likelihood of unemployment.

Who is the "She" in the Pandemic "She-Cession"? Variation in COVID-19 Labor Market Outcomes by Gender and Family Status.

The sharp decline in employment after the COVID-19 lockdown was not uniformly felt across demographic groups. Utilizing the 2017 to 2020 monthly Current Population Survey and using a difference-in-difference design, we investigate the varying impacts of COVID-19 on at-work status among the prime-working-age population, accounting for typical seasonal fluctuations in employment. The target population is grouped by gender, marital status, parenthood, and level of education. Our results uncover complex variations by gender, marital status, and children’s age. Contrary to popular belief, married women without school-aged children did not experience a relative decline in employment compared to married fathers. A majority of disadvantages in employment that married women experienced are accounted for by controlling for typical seasonal fluctuations. The women whose employment was most distinctively adversely affected by COVID-19 during 2020 were less-educated never-married childless women and never-married mothers. Less-educated men who were not currently married also experienced a disadvantage in employment relative to equally educated married fathers. These findings imply that, during the pandemic recession, marriage offered a form of within-family insurance that we call the “added caregiver effect.” The further implications of these findings are discussed.

Economic crises, labour reforms and employment: the Spanish case

Economic crises, labour reforms and employment:the Spanish case Nunzia Castelli (bio) There is no doubt that we have been living in a situation of 'permanent exceptionality'1 for several years now. In little more than a decade, extraordinary and/or global events have taken place that have had a substantial impact on economic and social relations at all levels2. Spain has not been left out of these phenomena that have had repercussions on the country, acquiring the specificities derived from the characteristics of the national context. Among them, one of the most outstanding has always been the special sensitivity of employment to the recessive economic phases of the national economy. Thus, the main and most immediate consequence of the different economic crises that have shaken the system throughout recent decades has traditionally been both the activation of an intense -and not comparable with the other EU member countries-process of employment contraction3, as well as an exponential increase in unemployment, which reached its peak in the first quarter of 2013 with more than six million unemployed (practically 27 percent of the population)4. The high level of fluctuation in employment in relation to variations in GDP and the equally high 'job creation threshold' -understood as the increase in national wealth capable of generating employment-are therefore specific characteristics of the Spanish context5. It is also characterised by presenting a marked level of dualisation of the labour market with rates of temporary employment and rotation in employment that have always been well above the European average6. These specific characteristics of the Spanish context have marked the economic and social evolution of the country from the very configuration of the democratic model of labour relations7. This has represented a burden for the political, social and economic development of the Country since it has reacted to the different economic shocks mainly by unloading the weight of the adjustment on employment and, therefore, on the working class. Spain has been shaken by economic crises: in 2013 unemployment peaked at more than six million (practically 27 percent of the population) The re-orientation of public policies towards the postulates of the neoliberal aspect of global capitalism has also contributed to this, which, since the 1980s, has pushed for an increasingly insistent 'blaming of labour rights' both from sources legal and conventional8. Hence, the different reforms of the regulatory framework that have occurred since the early 1980s, and which have intensified during periods of crisis, have always passed, although with variable intensity, around the objectives of flexibility, deregulation, or re-regulation calibrated solely on the promotion of business interests of productivity and competitiveness via the reduction of labour costs9. The cycle of reforms undertaken between 2010 and 2013 represents the clearest manifestation of this, with the 2012 reform being the one that has undoubtedly had the greatest impact on the democratic structuring of labour relations in the country10. The paradigm shift: the labour reform of December 2021 Regarding the model summarily described above, the current Legislature presents significant peculiarities11. The response to the crisis derived from the pandemic has been addressed from the perspective of protecting employment and the productive fabric, with a series of measures-this time all agreed within the framework of social dialogue-that have privileged the maintenance of employment over its destruction, have sustained the economic sectors most affected by the consequences of the health crisis, and have reinforced the coverage and quality of social benefits. An attempt has also been made to remedy some of the main weaknesses and dysfunctions of the Spanish model of labour relations (high volatility of employment, rates of temporary employment and job rotation well above the European average, strong gender inequality, low coverage and quality of social protection...) and to adapt it to the changes produced by the irruption of digitalisation, through regulatory interventions aimed at modernising the labour market and the social protection system. The important reform of the labour market (approved with RD-Law 32/2021, of 28 December 2021) has also moved in this direction. The reform has been described as 'historic' insofar as it has been the first major regulatory change in...